Investing has been rather rewarding to me and I've learned that getting a good return is very much attainable if you know your way around it. I've watched my net worth grow exponentially these past months.
You say it like it's easy forgetting that not everyone is as lucky as you are. I've invested for months now without any progress. How are you able to do it?
Luck is way off the picture. Jonas Herman, a licensed fiduciary is the brain behind my success. I've gotten into a plethora of assets with $21k spread across stocks (options and futures) for the short term and Roth IRA, index funds, cryptocurrency and ETFs, for the long term. Now with over 112k in roi, I sit back and just reinvest at intervals while I handle my other businesses.
Do not forget that when it comes to investing, prices can be erratic, rising and declining quickly, often in relation to companies' policies, which individual investors or “experts” do not influence.
Of course but when it tell you too. The come to Jesus moment is coming and folks IMHO are about to get their faces ripped off. Be careful. Things are not what they appear.
I expected gold, silver, as well as DJT to go down, because it was mostly an election play, and once it's over, those things are no longer interesting. Though I also expected crypto to be dumped as well, but it's still holding up.
I'm with you on the growth belief except with copper and other industrial metals, if it was a growth story then you'd expect copper to move higher because of higher anticipated demand... I don't know what caused today's rally but I think there's more to this story then what we know so far.
You are way up on apple and seem to know about bofa at least. Why is every market at all time highs? Who is doing well? Us regular people at our same jobs? Boeing worker? Id be worried about that job in keeping it.
thanks Jason..I have only been involved with the markets since covid. I hope you find the time to answer my inquiry. I do not remember seeing JPM or GS up this much even after a perfect earnings report. What gives?
Markets have initial euphoria however because trump is so consistently incoherent and allusive this creates great uncertainty in markets around the world. Honestly don't believe this is going to be smooth sailing ahead.
Yeah seems like people were more bitter about it than exuberant, the weird thing is the option market has been extremely exuberant all year and they have yet to be punished much whenever they load calls
I would say indications are still inflationary from looking at the bond yields and the bullishness in the market. USD is the reason for the butt kicking in metals and overcrowdedness. Energy likes the higher yields.
Good point, I think the market is also expecting growth not inflation since the gold is down. But we are at 3% GDP growth on 7% GDP deficit, it’s not economically possible to grow more while reducing the debt. Elon can cut as much gov as he wants, but he will also be cutting into government spending which is economically negative.
Prolly a bad time to think about FADING the market. So…All aboard the “Polar Express Santa Rally Train !!!” ( pending it’s not cancelled by more extreme volatility)lol! FYI : Tomorrow Starbucks is launching their holiday drink menu! Tis the season ! 🎄🎅🎄
Bonds are getting sold because of liquidation, I think. Weaker bond prices, stronger stock prices and a DXY rally that barely broke the recent range all suggest to me the USD is currently in short supply and that a return to QE is going to be necessary to address the shortage. However, to reach that point, much lower bond prices are necessary - nowhere near it yet.
Don't forget guys that we had the best bull market in crypto (2016 - 2017) when trump was president. Trump being back is very very bullish for crypto. Position yourself wisely!
What you're saying is completely nonsensical. Reagan didn't grow our way out of debt; he made the debt even worse. The last time Trump was in office, he made Reagan look like a miser. Also, who will reap the benefits of the growth? Over the last decade, it's been the top 1%.
What blows my mind is the percentage of GDP that is made by government in USA is somthing like 30%. France and Canada are over 40%. Wild. Incredible. And scary
The size of the government and the collective spending of all of those governmental functions have been a millstone around the neck of America for a long time. If we can lighten that load in a careful and balanced way, we should do very well.
How's for this playbook .. Elon goes hard on this DOGE thing and the deficit comes down meaningfully which brings down yields .. add to that growth and AI productivity improvement keeps inflation low, tarrifs not withstanding.. goldiocks for a $TLT rally ?
Late 2019 is the history of where Trump goes. First sign of a problem and he was demanding lower rates and increased spending. I hope you’re correct about growth coming from Elon efficiency but I’m doubtful given Trumps previous moves with inflation creation.
As the other poster said, the (mostly liberal) idiot governors and bureaucrats (fauci) wanted the stupid lockdowns, so how are people going to survive if a'lot of them can't work holed up at home? Money printing needed.
Today's reaction throws all recent macro analysis into the wind. If the market is indeed sniffing out real growth, risk on to the moon as if we are coming off 10yr lows. I don't know what to think anymore with a macro thesis. Maybe continued weak jobs data takes hold over time but I can't make a case for either direction of this market.
Sure you are not just reading into things what you'd like to be true? Consider a 4 year candle, Trump increased the debt more than any president before him and the market rallied. Biden increased the debt even more than Trump and the market rallied even more. Couldn't this be the market celebrating the continuation of the debt party?
Markets were heavily hedged. Maybe just an unwind of positions? Deporting a lot of illegals, if it happens, will have an impact on wages. Add tariffs, which tend to be inflationary. Also, cutting taxes will just juice things even more. And you have the Fed cutting into an economy that is still relatively strong with deficits historically high at the same time. I hope we don't get higher inflation. We will see.
Investing has been rather rewarding to me and I've learned that getting a good return is very much attainable if you know your way around it. I've watched my net worth grow exponentially these past months.
You say it like it's easy forgetting that not everyone is as lucky as you are. I've invested for months now without any progress. How are you able to do it?
Luck is way off the picture. Jonas Herman, a licensed fiduciary is the brain behind my success. I've gotten into a plethora of assets with $21k spread across stocks (options and futures) for the short term and Roth IRA, index funds, cryptocurrency and ETFs, for the long term. Now with over 112k in roi, I sit back and just reinvest at intervals while I handle my other businesses.
Do not forget that when it comes to investing, prices can be erratic, rising and declining quickly, often in relation to companies' policies, which individual investors or “experts” do not influence.
I'm green in the investing space. I work most of the week and barely have time to myself. I'd like to use mentorship. How can I get to him?
Hermanw jonas that’s his gmail okay
fantastic video. DXY up. Market up. Bitcoin Up. Gold down. Bonds down. Absolutely a productivity perception.
🍑👅
I was confused bro!
I remember when Jason told us to fade a rally if Trump got elected
Of course but when it tell you too. The come to Jesus moment is coming and folks IMHO are about to get their faces ripped off. Be careful. Things are not what they appear.
Yea me too
Well you could have faded $DJT. Currently down 25% from it's Wednesday spike.
@@xx123choicexx but what he even more often says is don’t predict, read the charts. Let the price action do the talking. Predictions are just words
@@SkellyGamingCreates the IV on DJT is stil insane
I really like hearing your perspectives on the market. Thanks!
Glad you like them!
Thanks Jason
Thank you for the explanation. I didn't know that.
Thanks 👍
what a day
@@georgefe581 understatement
fantastic day, haven't had that for quite a long time, everything is just right
I like it. Thank you Jason
Still following while in China...one of a kind information...thanks Jason!
@@Blast-Radius thx
Great vid Jason.
Thank you for the video
Thanks Brother love ya 🐐🐐🐐❤️❤️❤️✝️✝️✝️
Let’s go! Thanks j
You come with straight facts
Great analysis 🎉🎉
Would copper not benefit if growth prospect driven?
Yeah! What happened to "Dr Copper" being a bell weather for economic growth?
I expected gold, silver, as well as DJT to go down, because it was mostly an election play, and once it's over, those things are no longer interesting. Though I also expected crypto to be dumped as well, but it's still holding up.
I'm with you on the growth belief except with copper and other industrial metals, if it was a growth story then you'd expect copper to move higher because of higher anticipated demand... I don't know what caused today's rally but I think there's more to this story then what we know so far.
My thought exactly
The Russell's Gap & Go certainly supports your thesis.
Beware of euphoria! Why did buffet fly to cash ? .. last big blow off then dump ! The smart money is selling to these melt ups !
You are way up on apple and seem to know about bofa at least. Why is every market at all time highs? Who is doing well? Us regular people at our same jobs? Boeing worker? Id be worried about that job in keeping it.
Hi Jason, what do you make of the move in inflation break evens today (+15bps in 5y)? Maybe a combination of the two?
thanxxxx a lot ❤
thanks Jason..I have only been involved with the markets since covid. I hope you find the time to answer my inquiry. I do not remember seeing JPM or GS up this much even after a perfect earnings report. What gives?
Thank you as always 🇺🇲🤘🏼🚀🧑🏼🚀
I agree and makes sense. Question is if and when this sentiment will change. Maybe in January once he takes office? Or maybe never.
Markets have initial euphoria however because trump is so consistently incoherent and allusive this creates great uncertainty in markets around the world. Honestly don't believe this is going to be smooth sailing ahead.
Bond market was up on the longer end of the curve 10,30y by 4.5% this is long term growth prospects?
Insane day today!
Yeah seems like people were more bitter about it than exuberant, the weird thing is the option market has been extremely exuberant all year and they have yet to be punished much whenever they load calls
I hope you weren't shorting IWM still!
If it's growth why is copper down? And how much longer do you expect growth when no one can afford the interest rates?
I would say indications are still inflationary from looking at the bond yields and the bullishness in the market. USD is the reason for the butt kicking in metals and overcrowdedness. Energy likes the higher yields.
What if it's both? Inflation and growth. That's reflation just like what our buddy Darius Dale is saying the market is pricing in at the moment
I don't see why it wouldn't be. Forward looking mortgage rates are up...
Tomorrows NQ ES. bullish too ?
Good point, I think the market is also expecting growth not inflation since the gold is down. But we are at 3% GDP growth on 7% GDP deficit, it’s not economically possible to grow more while reducing the debt. Elon can cut as much gov as he wants, but he will also be cutting into government spending which is economically negative.
Nice narrative, onshoring/reshoring is inflationary and the tariffs would be also, no?
Hate to say it, but I was already positioned for this and it’s quite obvious, this is bullish. Not bear porn, BULLISH
I have a feeling elon is going to find out you can't be good at everything
Can’t stump the Trump!
Prolly a bad time to think about FADING the market. So…All aboard the “Polar Express Santa Rally Train !!!” ( pending it’s not cancelled by more extreme volatility)lol!
FYI : Tomorrow Starbucks is launching their holiday drink menu! Tis the season ! 🎄🎅🎄
@@yejollykrewe1208 FOMC tomorrow. Will get crazier.
Seems plausible, or it could be ppl buying because they know the indices are not terrible places to hide when inflation rips?
This has been the best case for Bitcoin, and the digital economy. Lets see if Trump delivers on the campaign pledges in this regard. Super bullish.
Bonds are getting sold because of liquidation, I think. Weaker bond prices, stronger stock prices and a DXY rally that barely broke the recent range all suggest to me the USD is currently in short supply and that a return to QE is going to be necessary to address the shortage. However, to reach that point, much lower bond prices are necessary - nowhere near it yet.
what about bitcoin? thanks for your videos
@@gust133 check out our Substack. Several posts on Bitcoin charts. Large Specs got it wrong again.
T bill and chill guy is crying like a baby! He is getting humiliated!
I expect all election speculative plays to go south unless something new happens.
Don't forget guys that we had the best bull market in crypto (2016 - 2017) when trump was president. Trump being back is very very bullish for crypto. Position yourself wisely!
You can pay off dabt with devalued dollar aka inflation too. I mean growth….in prices.
What you're saying is completely nonsensical. Reagan didn't grow our way out of debt; he made the debt even worse. The last time Trump was in office, he made Reagan look like a miser. Also, who will reap the benefits of the growth? Over the last decade, it's been the top 1%.
yesterday was a growth reaction. just wait for the confirmation.
What blows my mind is the percentage of GDP that is made by government in USA is somthing like 30%. France and Canada are over 40%.
Wild. Incredible. And scary
Japan from '74 to '89. Look at that bull run. Maybe the U.S. can see something similar?
"what if its down because growth"? Bingo.
Too many people trying to fight this tape with narratives.
TMV.. it is still working..
The size of the government and the collective spending of all of those governmental functions have been a millstone around the neck of America for a long time. If we can lighten that load in a careful and balanced way, we should do very well.
Agree. But I put those at or near zero... just like interest rates were for 15 years that helped get us into this mess. 😂
Is getting pretty bullish in here! Almost.....euphoric?🤔
Why didn’t anyone tell me to buy weekly calls on banks yesterday
Im gunna pick up some cheap gold
Yes agree. it's not inflationary expectation. Tariffs.Trump's "growth" will disappoint, That's why I bought more med long term bonds. Just MO
Short squeeze in regional banks responsible for R2K move for the most part
And i just went more short !!! Not gonna squeeze me. 😂
@ covered my dpst short today. Will reshort any pops
How's for this playbook .. Elon goes hard on this DOGE thing and the deficit comes down meaningfully which brings down yields .. add to that growth and AI productivity improvement keeps inflation low, tarrifs not withstanding.. goldiocks for a $TLT rally ?
Late 2019 is the history of where Trump goes. First sign of a problem and he was demanding lower rates and increased spending. I hope you’re correct about growth coming from Elon efficiency but I’m doubtful given Trumps previous moves with inflation creation.
"Trumps previous moves with inflation creation". -> We would have seen depression if they hadn't printed money during covid. It was no choice.
As the other poster said, the (mostly liberal) idiot governors and bureaucrats (fauci) wanted the stupid lockdowns, so how are people going to survive if a'lot of them can't work holed up at home? Money printing needed.
🎉
👍
The intellect of this man 🙏🙏🙏
@@adamblackwell524 haha looks like you dont know COT very well
@@adamblackwell524 how does it feel to be a complete moron? Just curious.
Weren’t you a bear Jason ? Hope you didn’t short
Algo
Today's reaction throws all recent macro analysis into the wind. If the market is indeed sniffing out real growth, risk on to the moon as if we are coming off 10yr lows. I don't know what to think anymore with a macro thesis. Maybe continued weak jobs data takes hold over time but I can't make a case for either direction of this market.
Short the russell into FOMC?
Feels like market euphoria . Not sure what will force a downturn but feels like everyone is now bullish so I’m skeptical
Forgot to mention BTC massive move today
Sure you are not just reading into things what you'd like to be true? Consider a 4 year candle, Trump increased the debt more than any president before him and the market rallied. Biden increased the debt even more than Trump and the market rallied even more. Couldn't this be the market celebrating the continuation of the debt party?
you don’t need to put on your glasses to see what the stock market is saying
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Long
Markets were heavily hedged. Maybe just an unwind of positions? Deporting a lot of illegals, if it happens, will have an impact on wages. Add tariffs, which tend to be inflationary. Also, cutting taxes will just juice things even more. And you have the Fed cutting into an economy that is still relatively strong with deficits historically high at the same time. I hope we don't get higher inflation. We will see.
illegals are a mixed bag. yeah they drive down wages but they drive up demand for everything including housing
That’s very possible… buffet dumped stocks .. could be a last blow off … sucking everyone in ??
You aint having growth sorry to say that, cause number 1 you have no competitive markets.
Thanks Jason