Is the Calgary Real Estate Market Slowing Down Finally?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 ส.ค. 2024
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Explore the latest insights into the Calgary real estate market in 2024. Are we finally seeing a slowdown, or is this just a temporary shift? In this video, Jared Chamberlain dives deep into recent data and trends that suggest changes in market dynamics. Discover key statistics on inventory levels, average days on market, and crucial indicators often overlooked in mainstream reports. Gain valuable insights to help you navigate whether you're buying or selling in Calgary's evolving real estate landscape.
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This is one of the most underrated RE related channel I've seen. Thank you for such good quality content
Appreciate that 🙌
I've been house hunting for months now. Lately, for the first time since I starting hunting, I'm seeing listings hang for a few weeks then decrease in price. Its actually lending me hope!
Interesting thoughts! Always appreciated! I enjoy staying in touch by watching your videos! May still end up in Calgary! Cheers!
all the houses I see for sale right now are dumps or people who lip sticked it quickly and the prices are crazy high. Anything good seems to sell in a few days.
100%. People hear that the neighbour sold their nice livable house for $xxxk and they think they can sell their dump for the same price because they have the same "attributes". I laugh every time I see it.
@u2v22 it's mostly flippers throw some paint flooring and a cheap kitchen but the roofs toast the grass is 3 ft high and the garage door is falling off 1200sq ft split $629,000
Nolan Hill 2300 sq foot house for sale here!! 3 bed, Stunning backyard and amazing primary closet ❤🎉
Calgary market will keep going strong probably at a slightly slower rate.
Few facts below
1. Calgary suffered severe downturn since 2014 ( and commercial properties are still groggy).
2. Calgary real estate market just started recovering since 2021. And there is tons of room to go higher up considering inflation, land value in general, weak CAD, interprovincial migration and such.
3. Calgary is the only Canadian city which can offer the exact same lifestyle as Denver CO & Salt Lake City UT.
4. A 2nd oil boom has just started due to politics among U.S, Russia, Saudi and Euro. And Calgary & Edmonton are oil cities like Houston & Dallas in Texas.
Don't forget the inventory is historical low and the city of Calgary is already aware of that. This is why the city keeps pulling levers to generate more home (inventory).
Some good thoughts here
The federal government wants to axe oil and gas by 2035. What would be the economy of Alberta at that time.
Do you still believe that government agenda? Oil and gas has been the back bone of this country even during/after WWI the total global demand may not rise substantially yet still strongly backed up by India@@elvi7605
Canada can still milk their cash cows and now is the best time to do. Otherwise Canada cannot prepare for the future. Think about this there is already more than 40M people living in Canada competing for the social infrastructure adequately sized for only 30M people. Canada needs money to debottle and ease this congestion. So where does the money come from? Natural Resources, oil & gas, raw minerals, lumber, agriculture and such. Those will make this country great again. 👍 👍
@@elvi7605 CAPEX AND OPEX of oil&gas assets won't vaporize in the next 10 years. Those gigantic oil and gas corporates are not dumb. Alberta will continue putting effort to diversify their dependency on Oil&Gas so that they take less tolls on themselves in the next downturn. And please remember, building the economy diversity is not free yet Alberta has money to make it happen. Why? historically Alberta has been the richest province in Canada which means they have always had ample amount of ammunition to push forward.
My place has been on market for 12 days . 6 viewings no offers and very reasonable price in this market . Other units in the complex have sold for what I’m listed for with 1 less bathroom and most within a week .Feels like the week I listed everything went quiet. Hopefully get some action soon
Depends on the complex, floor level and much more. Hope you get it sorted and sold.
Calgary has always been a boom bust economy. If you can stay within the midline and track the trends you can avoid panic buy sell behaviour. Median over the long term is steady growth. This has always been the case.
Toronto and Vancouver can’t sell and can’t buy Calgary
And really, many don't want to if Calgary gets upwards of 75% of their prices. Job opportunities aside of course (Calgary isn't the greatest for that right now and the massive wave of people aren't helping. We listed a specialized job that requires a degree/designation a month ago. 250 applicants. A lot of them are new Canadians just blanket applying to everything and wasting people's time, but usually we get 10% or less of that # for this job).
YES… we’re hiring too and SOOOO many blanket applications without any care in the world. It’s frustrating.
@@blackbirdbeatle If you have to commute from Port Hope ON to downtown Toronto. If you have to commute from Abbotsford to downtown Vancouver, and you see the real estate price in Calgary (I mention these two places because the home price are quite similar to Calgary) it can make people quite amazed by the inflated prices there. I know there are many people commuting because the HWY 401 and the HWY 1 are always traffic jammed. I don’t think there would be too much attractive jobs there in Abbotsford nor Port Hope. I would bet Calgary would still have better jobs if you are in the skilled trades or if licensed. It’s all about credentials and being able to have the referrals. I have confidence that Calgary will continue the upward trend into next year at least, now that developers need to convert houses into multiple units. There is no way a graduate from UBC nor UofT can succeed unless they inherit from their parents in those cities now. Having said that, coming back to Calgary, there aren’t enough property land left in Calgary unless investors start buying the house lots for multiple units. It’s going to be very time consuming to get through all the hurdles including permits and stuff. That was what drove land prices in Toronto and Vancouver. I expect the same happening in Calgary.
I watched all your videos! Very great content! So much appreciate it!
You’re so very welcome! If we can help you with buying or selling let us know! www.chamberlaingroup.ca/contact/
I wonder if another factor of the slow down could be the “Blanket Rezoning” that was passed. In areas where there’s older homes beside the home you want to purchase, do you take the chance your neighbour sells their home and a taller more unit home(s) is built beside you. Something to think about.
But in that case you may not be able to buy in most of the city as a very large number of the communities are part of this rezoning thing, though obviously older communities are more prone to be more attractive to the investors.
Don’t worry it will go fast again, not going up but down
Thanks for the video, very interesting. However, how is the number of showings a leading indicator, it is literally a lagging indicator. The number of showing already happened, it is past information, this is a lagging indicator. New home starts would be a leading indicator for the potential number of home that will hit the market in the future.
New homes don’t turn into resale market for a long time. Their impact isn’t the same as showings. Truthfully both showings and housing starts are indicators, they just tell different stories.
@@ChamberlainGroup My argument was that showings are a lagging indicator, not a forward indicator. Of course new homes don't enter the resale marker for a while, however the number of new homes greatly effects the supply of housing on the market. If the market is flooded with new homes, this will decrease the showings for resale, as many new buyers would purchase new homes. My point was that new home starts is a leading indicator, it represents a portion of the future increase of supply in the housing market. If new home starts skyrocket, we would expect to see the housing market level off in the future due to the increased supply.
People who are buying 400k apartments will hurt the most !
What do you believe the reason is for that?
Unemployment is at a whopping 8% and continuing to climb, more listings coming to the market, this will help ease the market
Unemployment doesn't really matter much unless it is out of control. Please remember, buyers will always buy because they can buy.
It’s true more listing are coming to the market but will it be enough?
Who cares about unemployment rate... Many detached home buyers I know ($800k to 1.2million) don't make much actually. They took lots of cash earned from Toronto/Vancouver housing market, or other countries like Hong Kong.
Summer lull. That’s it. Still only 1 month of inventory. Market remains tight. And with high odds of a new federal govt Fall 2025, Calgary the place to be for the next decade
The next decade? The next two generation for sure.
How do you know what the next decade let alone next generations will look like. I want your connections for fortune tellers 🔮 😂
I’m @@ChamberlainGroup look at federal political history. Every decade you get a conservative / liberal flip flop. We just had a decade of Liberal governing. Next up: a pro West Conservative majority …should help AB/SK commodity based markets.
Until 2026
@@ChamberlainGroup byelection results in Toronto. Fed govt is going super majority conservative an energy supporter
Great insights. Thanks.
I have noticed in Marda Loop some new listings have been owned only for 2-3 years. I was thinking maybe these are people who move from TO and VAN and now want to use their property appreciation and move back to buy something there. I could be wrong though
Could be… however our appreciation here may not be enough to justify going back. We’ve had a few clients move here and a couple of years later are relocated, there could be that but truthfully there are so many reasons why people move.
As of May/July 2024, 3889 residences are for sale in Calgary as the average price is $587,100 now. I''m just hoping it goes back down to $500k.
Not likely. In Canada you have to compete with rich people from all around the world, or those who are not rich but sold their assets so have bags of cash. Previously it was in Vancouver since 2000, then Toronto since 2015, now Calgary, like a plague.
The problem is over priced homes that are a complete rip off. When you see a small house for 650 000 in marlborough for example, of course no one is going to buy. You can find a nice detached house south for that same price. Sone sellers are absolutely ridiculous in over pricing there garbage properties in undesirable neighborhoods thinking they will get a sucker who is desperate. The truth is the good houses still sell quick with multiple offers. But the ones that are over 100k worth what they should be? They will sit. People are not that desperate and stupid to purchase rip off deals and there is a lot of them in the market 10 or even 20 percent over priced.
There are many homes over priced for sure. Appreciate the comment and watching 🙌
People are waiting for rates to drop more before buying. In a counter intuitive way, the rate drop has slowed things down, as buyers know waiting may open up better options for them. I think it’s also just normal post spring slow down.
Properties in SE communities around Seton are selling crazy, except the ones who overpriced by 20%+.
Properties are still selling for sure. It’s the showings that are adjusting.
@@ChamberlainGroup showing number is a leading indication. I guess house price will climb at a much slower pace or even decrease from the highs. I wonder if you can share the price trends in the summer months in Calgary. People usually start vacations at this time of the year and that could explain the showing number decrease.
Don’t forget the 8.4% unemployment rate.
Many of the homes in Calgary have been via investors from other provinces. Seen many posting sell from 2021-2022.
I suspect we are at the peak after 12% gains per year for the past 4 years. Essentially 50% since 2020.
Which is not sustainable.
I don't believe the Calgary market has peaked yet. I think fall 2024- spring 2025 will see the biggest price surge. However, for those that really need to sell right now, or want to, this is an excellent time to list.
Or keep going up at a steady pace, which is good for those who already settled in Calgary 10 years ago
They’ll still go up but what I’m thinking is that the boom (this year) is already settling. The prices from Feb-Apr seemed to show a huge jump but things in May just looked barely more expensive. Bottom line is that for someone looking to buy now, waiting another couple months won’t hurt.
@@Hypeman10 I'm not sure about whether or not this is a good time to buy. An interest rate cut in the fall will certainly attract more buyers, but also drive list prices up. I would say start looking, summer can be a good time to bargain.
@@louelaine3680It’s really too hard to predict. A quarter percent interest rate doesn’t make that much of a difference, but the issue is that rates might not go that much lower (this year) and that’s what people will have to go with. Prices will certainly go up next year, and we might see another run once school is fully out, but prices by the fall might be more reasonable.
This yesr first half is 2:0 it's okay not to score in the second half.
Thanks.
You're welcome
What about the properties getting removed and all data wiped and listed at a new lower price and then it says it sold in 7 days like example 2039 5th ave was listed at 1.1 relisted at 999k after a month and it says it sold within days. Not all data is accurate
Great thought. You can see days on market and collective days(CDOM) on market on the backend. CDOM will show the total days on market when agents do this tactic removing and putting back on.
Martindal community so many houses on listings so many months. House selling slow down
Enjoy the capital gains tax.
Kindly pointing out its lagging indicator not legging indicator. What in the legs are you talking about 😂
Anecdotal evidence: I know many skilled tradesmen who have worked in commercial building and oil and gas that have been laid off for several months with no new projects on the horizon. Well paying jobs in fact are on decline and I don’t believe what so ever that Alberta is a great place for job opportunities right now and likely will get worse as oil and gas and natural resource sectors die under Trudeau.
Bubble is bursting.
Yes bubble is bursting
Bubbles never formed yet
It’s slowing for sure but I don’t think there’s a bubble, market is not gonna drop 10% or 20% or more, might stall at these prices
So many people don't know how much Calgary is discounted. Still cheap cheap.
What’s your definition of a bubble @nsevv ?
Nolan Hill 2300 sq foot house for sale here!! 3 bed, Stunning backyard and amazing primary closet ❤🎉
Real estate industry is playing FOMO with us. 😅
Im getting a house built and the sales associate said houses in 600k to 1000k are slowing down
That’s like 80% of the market
What does that mean
You have to remember
#1 - that’s a massive price range… too big to tell a story.
#2 - homes on the upper range always slow down first before lower priced ones
#3 - Does the builder lack inventory? If so, of course they won’t see the same traffic. If you don’t have hot dogs to sell, less people show up to your hot dogs stand.
Long weekend, kids now out of school and a lot of people on vacation.
20 years of pain coming
What makes you say 20 years vs 15?
@@ChamberlainGroup actually no clue on time line but bigger then anything we seen . Mostly I think rates will be higher more than lower until 2042 . Looking a cynical stuff. Money could become valuable .
People are waiting for the rate to be stabilized before pumping to market.
Seasonal trend? People choosing new builds over used?
Could be seasonal, isn’t new over resale.
I hope people think twice with the water situation
Can investors just leave our housing market alone… and F off.
>evergreen
>it has yellowish grass and shrubs
>tuscany
>in Canada
canadians do anything to convince themselves they dont live in a place that’s cold 9 months of the year
The top of the market
Calgary is still too cheap... I would say great value and great price (weak CAD)
Calgary in future price will be up
Price will be up 5 to 8% calgary again
By end of 2024?
There is wayy more inventory
My area had less then 5 listings at any given time. Today there is 24 listings
Imagine telling your kids to work hard, achieve your goals and maybe one day you can live in...Calgary lol. Canada is doomed.
Where would you like your kids to live?
There is no more jobs in all of alberta in any sector
Not with the amount of people flooding this country from india
There are many coming from all over!
Move to Calgary if you want to live in a shoebox.
Or… a house. Shoeboxes don’t fair well in winter.
Let’s hope nenshi gets in so he can wreck the province and people move back east and others stop buying up investment properties…. Maybe one day a house is a reasonable dream again
If he does win. I will not move to Calgary.
@@elvi7605 hopefully lots of people agree
Who cares
@@elvi7605perfect, hopefully many agree with that!
@@timthonyliu3338other than everyone who needs to buy a home and can’t afford it?
should limit chinese😂they are crazy
What's that means?
😬 not wanting to delete your comment however I thought about it a couple of times! Let’s not play these games in this thread. Thanks.