Ukraine War Update NEWS (20240703b): AP's Equipment Loss List
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ต.ค. 2024
- Here is today's UWU NEWS giving you all the nuggets you need to add to your understanding of events.
Del's open-source Russian loss stats:
onedrive.live....
Bill's stats dashboard: www.ukrainewar...
Merchandise for the A Tippling Philosopher blog network and TH-cam channel. www.redbubble....
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Check out this website of pro-Ukrainian inks:
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Discord: / discord
Videos/sources:
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DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSS DATA
1) These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
2) These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
3) All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
4) Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
5) Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
6) Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
7) Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
8) All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
9) Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Thanks Jon.
Just as I thought I could make a mug of tea..................
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Andrew was quoted in a Forbes article yesterday about interceptor drones. Might be a game-changer for protecting these airfields. Without Orlans, I guess the Russians have to use old sat images or just lob their missiles into the better-defended cities.
09:10 -
Andrew & co usually collect data from strikes close to the front lines.
That means any civilian vehicles listed are either used to supply munitions and materiel, used in troop reinforcement or evacuation OR used as an integral part of offensive maneuvers.
If combat vehicle losses are down, but aggregate vehicle losses remain the same, some of the latter vehicles are being used at front lines to supplement shortages or to accommodate changes in tactics.
Thanks JP!
The 2:1 ratio in combat vehicles has been a consistent ratio in other sources for a good period of time.
But thats not as important as the human toll ratio, ( Killed and wounded badly enough to be taken out of the fight). The logistics non combat vehicle ratio is also as important as combat ratios as the long term ability of the Russian army to fight is represented in effort in this area.
The figures for newly maimed men for 2023 was 500,000!! Published by the Russian government. Thus does not include KIA or MIA. Its a phenomenally high number and does not include 2024 figures.
Based on this the Ukrainian general staff numbers are quite conservative and probably low.
The combat vehicle ratio will become less important as the Western deliveries ramp up. The Western equipment is far more survivable. The Russians will be losing all their trained operators, while the Ukrainians will just climb into their next vehicle and rejoin the fight.
I meant to say Zel's announcement that the ratio was 6:1 was revealing in a couple of senses. If true, it means you could calculate Ukrainian losses from Gen Staff figures. But also, Zel said it had been 4:! and has since gone to 6:1 as a result of Kharkiv.
Hi again , thanks Jonathan.
Russian Army is using motorcycles. It just confirms the dogma which JP doesn’t believe. One should be absolutely sure when to use toilet and when the sand paper.
So Jonathan apparently 550k is the number of kias and 1000k the number of cripples according to Ukrainian authorities.
ANTPQ 48 is a anti mortar radar. connected with AD it can also detect rockets, but it would not be needed for this in Ukraine as the more advanced systems have their own radars. Its not that high value except as a counter battery radar vs mortars
Thanks JP
Hey JP, just wondering if it would be possible for you to have your picture on the screen that you are looking at so that you can’t see what we can’t see 👍🏻
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I Think Johnathan is very handsome and I’d be proud to put such a handsome face anywhere … 💙💛💙
Hello Jon- thanks as always- have a question?
Do you have a simple list of telegram channels referring to the Ukraine war , or links? Such as I keep about youtube here for example with various channels-- (yourself, Anna, and certain others especially, Times Radio, etc....( do you or anyone you know maintain a hub of any sort of links, sources, maps, etc?)) As a poli sci geek I also to evaluate sources, and I suspect TH-cam is offering me quite a few shady sources along with those I've come to trust, most of all yourself! Salutes
Unfortunately, I don't use telegram that much at all. I do for Twitter
Appreciate the update JP. AP’s evolution of his loss stats are invaluable. He is the best in the open source era that we live in.
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Seen smaller drones connected together to give better lift/range but not in Ukraine hint hints!
Thanks for liking my last post before YT deleted it 😂
Great video thank you
Thanks
2nd
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@paraandy3821 Hi Andy, 114 f and 116 for the next 7 days. The pool is already 97. Husband is going to Ohio to visit family, then Pennsylvania for work. 😊 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 windy and wet here, heavy rain in am, now just blustery. Have a nice day 🤗