Paused at 4:42 I'm so glad you explained you were with your 1yo. Scared the crap out of me listening with headphones in a dark room on my own! Once my heart rate has dropped, I'll carry on listening.
Ha, sorry about that! I meant to delete the audio from that clip, but only realized I had forgotten after I uploaded the video. Little kids can be a little scary at night when unexpected!
I actually think SpaceX will try landing on the moon w an extremely stripped down Starship just to prove it can be done in 25. I know its an extreme longshot but possible
SLS is going to be less and less important, with Blues new rocket, and with Starship rocket, let’s be real they fly more often, Blue can human rate their rocket. This really pushes SLS into obsolete.
I still think NASA should keep the Space Launch System since we still are not sure when Starship or New Glenn will be rated to fly humans. The Space Launch System and Orion have an abort method, something that Starship does not have yet. If we learned anything from the Space Shuttle and Challenger, we should know it is always important to have a way for astronauts abort during launch. I have no doubt SpaceX and Blue Origin will eventually find a way to address this but until then, we should keep the Space Launch System and Orion.
Hoping for a great 2025 for the entire Space Industry! Loved hearing your predictions Laura. I work for a sub-contractor to ULA and designed some comm equipment for the Lucy mission back in 2021 (hence my interest in Legrange points). I spent much of 2023 and 2024 designing equipment for another space contractor whose name I should not advertise right now, but hopefully they also will be successful in their endeavors. Love my job and I just kinda 'fell' into rad-hardening for space design after a couple of decades doing ruggedized design for the military. I'm now 69 and have no desire to retire... so lets all go 5x5 into 2025. I look forward to reading your book and enjoyed your predictions in this video. Stay healthy all and have a fantastic New Year!
@@lauraforczyk I think SpaceX HLS could conceivably do the demo in 2025 providing the ship was nothing more than a shell just to prove they could do it...Such a thing would be in keeping with SpaceX's development method. In fact I wouldn't be shocked if SpaceX lands a few HLS prototypes on Luna before Artemis III..... All the same I agree SpaceX HLS will not land on the Luna in 2025.
Happy new year to you as well! Artemis 3 as currently planned is proposed for 2027. Which could happen if everything goes right and funding for struggling areas increased. But I think it's more likely in 2028 or later.
Happy New Year! Wishing Ms. Forczyk the best in 2025. I don't know if these are predictions, or maybe just a wish list, but here's what I want to see happen in 2025: 1: SpaceX Starship, RocketLab's Neutron, ULA's Vulcan and Blue Origin's New Glenn will launch several flights in 2025. There may be problems /setbacks, but I'm assuming they will produce far more successes. 2: Assuming Mr. Issacson is installed as the new NASA administrator, there will be a shakeup at NASA, and ambitious reforms will be proposed to Congress. SLS may be cancelled outright, but it may fly once or twice more within the next 2 or 3 years. Either way, SLS will eventually be cancelled. The Gateway space station project may also be cancelled. There will be a major attempt to reform the way NASA handles contracts and contractors. 3: There will be a major shakeup in the Artemis campaign schedule. We may be looking at a transformation of the mission and flight architectures for Artemis missions. There will be a major push to get astronauts on the Moon before 20 Jan. 2029. 4: Special wish; don't know if it will happen: There will be a major push in 2025 to 2028 time frame to TRANSFORM SLS as we know it today. The current expendable rocket will be replaced. SLS Block 1B and all versions of SLS Block 2 will be shelved, and never constructed. If there is an SLS in the future (I hope there is) it will be based an a re-usable commercial launch vehicle design, possible either a variant of Blue Origin's New Glenn or SpaceX's Starship. I call it "SLS Block 3". My favorite idea: I called it "New Glenn Heavy" (NGH). SLS Block 3 will remove the entire first stage of SLS Block 1. In its place, SLS Block 3 first stage will be NGH: three New Glenn first-stage boosters, joined into one vehicle, similar to SpaceX's Falcon Heavy. A single New Glenn first-stage booster can produce 3.85 million pounds-force of thrust. Combining three boosters for NGH would produce 11.55 million lb-f. 5: There will be a major push in 2025 to 2027 time frame by NASA to get Congress to green-light a new flight architecture vehicle for cislunar operations. This vehicle will be launched into space but never land anywhere; it will be a space-to-space cycler between Earth orbit and lunar orbit, using L3 Harris RL10cx hydrolox engines. This design will be used to greatly reduce transportation costs between Earth orbit and lunar orbit, with commercial launch providers boosting astronauts and payloads from Earth's surface to orbit and contracted commercial lunar landers taking payloads from space to the Moon's surface. This flight architecture will revolutionize lunar exploration. In Sept. 2016, NASA personnel from the Ames and Kennedy centers produced an internal study document under the title "Kickstarting a New Era of Lunar Industrialization via Campaigns of Lunar COTS Missions" that examined how to get beyond the SLS issue, and the solution was a combination of commercial launches to low Earth orbit, combined with a robotic cislunar re-usable ferry / tug / tanker (I call it a C-RUFTT) that could deliver astronauts and cargo from Earth orbit to lunar orbit. At about the same time, United Launch Alliance posted a promotional video presentation with essentially the same concept, called "ULA Innovation: CisLunar 1000" proposing an advanced Centaur derivative called ACES (aka Centaur Heavy) to serve as the C-RUFTT: NASA internal paper: "Kickstarting a New Era of Lunar Industrialization via Campaigns of Lunar COTS Missions" - Sept 2016 - 18 pages authors: Dr. Allison F. Zuniga, Mark Turner, Dr. Daniel Rasky and Robert B. Pittman (NASA Ames Research Center) and Edgar Zapata (NASA Kennedy Space Center) ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20170000827 United Launch Alliance promo video presentation: "ULA Innovation: CisLunar 1000" run time: 7 mins., 13 sec. -- video still posted on Facebook, no longer on TH-cam facebook.com/share/v/VrdWxMVeU9ZcyFFC/ United Launch Alliance promo video presentation: " ULA Innovation: Advanced Cryogenic Evolved Stage (ACES) / Centaur Heavy " run time: 8 mins., 3 sec. -- video still up on MechDesignTV channel on TH-cam th-cam.com/video/Zi-HStWyk84/w-d-xo.htmlsi=jdwUWidCoAeNJQry Pratt & Whitney Aircraft document - study prepared for NASA - Dec., 1973: "Design study of RL10 derivatives. Volume 3, part 2: Operational and flight support plan" ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/19740027085 6: Another aspirational goal: ULA and/or NASA will conduct more test flights of the LOFTID inflatable heat shield concept in 2025 or 2026. 7: Sierra Space will acquire United Launch Alliance (ULA) in 2025. ULA will begin launching Dream Chaser. ULA and Sierra Space will work together on some preliminary project for the Orbital Reef space station. Sierra Space will rename ULA as Sierra Launch Alliance (SLA). 8: Boeing will back out of the space industry in 2025. Sierra Space may acquire Boeing's space business as part of a deal to acquire ULA. 9: In Europe, there will be new developments involving re-usable launch vehicles, such as RFA or PLD. 10: ROSCOSMOS will suffer a major setback in 2025, possibly crippling the Russian space agency.
Not that I wish ill on SpaceX (or any other launch provider), but I think that, sooner or later, SpaceX is going to suffer a significant anomaly. It just stands to reason. If your failure rate is, say, 1-in-200, and you're pushing to launch 200 in a year, then the math says you should have a failure at least once in the year. It's incredible what SpaceX has done in developing the Falcon 9 workhorse, and they can almost launch on demand, but still I think the reaper will come calling in 2025. Hopefully it won't be a crewed flight. I think Jared's nomination will go fairly easily. I don't see anyone in the Senate having an appetite for picking a fight, especially with the Republicans in charge. The Democrats have other nominees far more deserving of objection ... I do think, however, that any SLS hearings will be popcorn moments. If we use Obama's first term as a template, any attempt to cancel it probably won't be until early 2026, when the FY2027 budget proposal is released. The White House is already moving along the FY2026 budget proposal, and the Trump administration will be focused elsewhere. Jared probably won't be sworn in until March or April at the earliest, by which time budget hearings will have been held. Re ULA, a big unknown is if it will be sold. Are there any buyers? Vulcan's business model certainly hasn't pencilled out from the days of, "We'll recover only the engines because it's cheaper than booster recovery." That turned out to be entirely wrong. Once the Atlas V missions end, I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing and LockMart decide to fold ULA ... Will anyone else achieve quick reusability like SpaceX? I don't see it happening any time soon, other than maybe Rocket Lab. Starliner should fly sometime in 2025, donchyathink? But I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing pulls the plug there too. Let's see, other predictions ... Elon's bromance with Trump falls out (again) once he realizes his $250 million in laundered campaign contributions didn't buy him the influence he thought it would buy him. That's enough to put my dubious reputation on the line for next year.
The reports of ULA’s death are exaggerated IMO. Now if they don’t pick up a single NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 rfp award, losing to BO,Sx, and RKLB, well then it’s lights out. ULA’s future seems intrisinctly wedded to CNSA and China’s militarization. ULA is the pureplay Medium/Heavy lift defense provider, having almost no other commercial distractions besides Kuiper…..should always be of value to USSF who still values price about # 4 down selection. Will be interesting if DOGE puts even a small dent (or just a pause) in USSF and DoD funding levels.
@@daveenright1235 DOGE isn't happening. Any "report" isn't due until summer 2026, when Congress is in summer recess. The report is no more than a recommendation, and has no binding requirement on the White House or Congress. The Obama White House tried something similar with the Simpson-Bowles commission; Congress blew it off.
IMO you got better odds with the Powerball than you do ever seeing Starliner fly again....As far as the Elon/Trump bromance goes, it never fell out a first time and Elon's 250 million has already gotten him dozens of his people appointed to positions throughout the trump administration including Jared to head NASA. And it boosted Elon's net worth to over 1/2 a trillion dollars. So I think it's safe to say it's unlikely Elon will be regretting his campaign efforts anytime soon.
Paused at 4:42 I'm so glad you explained you were with your 1yo. Scared the crap out of me listening with headphones in a dark room on my own! Once my heart rate has dropped, I'll carry on listening.
Ha, sorry about that! I meant to delete the audio from that clip, but only realized I had forgotten after I uploaded the video. Little kids can be a little scary at night when unexpected!
The current FAA administrator has already announced that he will be stepping down on January 20 so there will be new management there as well as NASA.
True!
Happy New Year, Laura. I'm with you on debuts for New Glenn (Q1) and Neutron (Q4) this year. Wishing you success, health and happiness for 2025 too.
Thank you, and happy new year to you as well, Ross!
Nice Job! Solid predictions. It'll certainly be an interesting & exciting 2025! Happy New Year!!
Thank you! Definitely an exciting time.
As I appreciate your realistic, pragmatic view looking forward - you are throwing water on my eternal optimism. Love your show.
Thank you!
I actually think SpaceX will try landing on the moon w an extremely stripped down Starship just to prove it can be done in 25. I know its an extreme longshot but possible
That would be fun to watch and a great milestone!
You deserve more subs.
@@r-saint Thank you!
I would like to see a nuclear rocket engine tested in space in 2025.
That would be cool!
I would too, however, I don't think we would see that in this decade. Let's hope in the early 2030's maybe?..
Hopefully not by Space x with their great success they could make large areas of earth uninhabitable.
@@TerezaTaylor-l8f ?
@@TerezaTaylor-l8f>>> Uh, not really.
Happy New Year! I think youre right with SpaceX hitting somewhere between 150-180, we'll see!
Happy new year to you as well!
SLS is going to be less and less important, with Blues new rocket, and with Starship rocket, let’s be real they fly more often, Blue can human rate their rocket. This really pushes SLS into obsolete.
Agreed!
I still think NASA should keep the Space Launch System since we still are not sure when Starship or New Glenn will be rated to fly humans. The Space Launch System and Orion have an abort method, something that Starship does not have yet. If we learned anything from the Space Shuttle and Challenger, we should know it is always important to have a way for astronauts abort during launch. I have no doubt SpaceX and Blue Origin will eventually find a way to address this but until then, we should keep the Space Launch System and Orion.
Hoping for a great 2025 for the entire Space Industry! Loved hearing your predictions Laura. I work for a sub-contractor to ULA and designed some comm equipment for the Lucy mission back in 2021 (hence my interest in Legrange points). I spent much of 2023 and 2024 designing equipment for another space contractor whose name I should not advertise right now, but hopefully they also will be successful in their endeavors. Love my job and I just kinda 'fell' into rad-hardening for space design after a couple of decades doing ruggedized design for the military. I'm now 69 and have no desire to retire... so lets all go 5x5 into 2025. I look forward to reading your book and enjoyed your predictions in this video. Stay healthy all and have a fantastic New Year!
Very cool! Thanks so much. Happy new year to you as well!
HAPPY NEW YEARS LAURA
Happy new year to you as well!
Great channel, Laura! Best wishes to you and your loved ones, thinking your little kid might go up there some day
Thank you! I'd be thrilled if any of my kids caught the space bug and made it off Earth.
Happy New Year! You have said what we want! Great job and great video!
Thank you!
🚀 🚀 🚀 Happy New Year!!! 🎆🎈🎊
Live Long and Prosper 🖖 Laura!
Thank you, happy new year to you as well!
Happy New Year! All the best success in 2025!
Thank you, happy new year to you as well!
Happy New Year 😊👍😊👍
Happy new year, Steve!
Great video, Laura...👍
Regarding _Dream Chaser..._
*I ❤️ LIFTING BODIES*
Thank you And same.
@@lauraforczyk>>> You're Welcome.
BTW, I kind of wish they would nickname their first *manned* _Dream Chaser_ *_"FARSCAPE ONE."_* 😉
Nice. It's going to be fun to see if your right. :)
Do you think I am?
@@lauraforczyk I think SpaceX HLS could conceivably do the demo in 2025 providing the ship was nothing more than a shell just to prove they could do it...Such a thing would be in keeping with SpaceX's development method. In fact I wouldn't be shocked if SpaceX lands a few HLS prototypes on Luna before Artemis III..... All the same I agree SpaceX HLS will not land on the Luna in 2025.
Looking forward to your space updates for 2025.
Thanks!
Happy new year. If HLS demo in 2026, when Artemis 3? (Sorry, tired, can't grammar...)
Happy new year to you as well! Artemis 3 as currently planned is proposed for 2027. Which could happen if everything goes right and funding for struggling areas increased. But I think it's more likely in 2028 or later.
I wonder how the Artemis accords will expand in size and scope over the next decade!
Hopefully as influential as the Outer Space Treaty!
Happy New Year! Wishing Ms. Forczyk the best in 2025.
I don't know if these are predictions, or maybe just a wish list, but here's what I want to see happen in 2025:
1: SpaceX Starship, RocketLab's Neutron, ULA's Vulcan and Blue Origin's New Glenn will launch several flights in 2025. There may be problems /setbacks, but I'm assuming they will produce far more successes.
2: Assuming Mr. Issacson is installed as the new NASA administrator, there will be a shakeup at NASA, and ambitious reforms will be proposed to Congress. SLS may be cancelled outright, but it may fly once or twice more within the next 2 or 3 years. Either way, SLS will eventually be cancelled. The Gateway space station project may also be cancelled. There will be a major attempt to reform the way NASA handles contracts and contractors.
3: There will be a major shakeup in the Artemis campaign schedule. We may be looking at a transformation of the mission and flight architectures for Artemis missions. There will be a major push to get astronauts on the Moon before 20 Jan. 2029.
4: Special wish; don't know if it will happen: There will be a major push in 2025 to 2028 time frame to TRANSFORM SLS as we know it today. The current expendable rocket will be replaced. SLS Block 1B and all versions of SLS Block 2 will be shelved, and never constructed. If there is an SLS in the future (I hope there is) it will be based an a re-usable commercial launch vehicle design, possible either a variant of Blue Origin's New Glenn or SpaceX's Starship. I call it "SLS Block 3". My favorite idea: I called it "New Glenn Heavy" (NGH). SLS Block 3 will remove the entire first stage of SLS Block 1. In its place, SLS Block 3 first stage will be NGH: three New Glenn first-stage boosters, joined into one vehicle, similar to SpaceX's Falcon Heavy. A single New Glenn first-stage booster can produce 3.85 million pounds-force of thrust. Combining three boosters for NGH would produce 11.55 million lb-f.
5: There will be a major push in 2025 to 2027 time frame by NASA to get Congress to green-light a new flight architecture vehicle for cislunar operations. This vehicle will be launched into space but never land anywhere; it will be a space-to-space cycler between Earth orbit and lunar orbit, using L3 Harris RL10cx hydrolox engines. This design will be used to greatly reduce transportation costs between Earth orbit and lunar orbit, with commercial launch providers boosting astronauts and payloads from Earth's surface to orbit and contracted commercial lunar landers taking payloads from space to the Moon's surface. This flight architecture will revolutionize lunar exploration.
In Sept. 2016, NASA personnel from the Ames and Kennedy centers produced an internal study document under the title "Kickstarting a New Era of Lunar Industrialization via Campaigns of Lunar COTS Missions" that examined how to get beyond the SLS issue, and the solution was a combination of commercial launches to low Earth orbit, combined with a robotic cislunar re-usable ferry / tug / tanker (I call it a C-RUFTT) that could deliver astronauts and cargo from Earth orbit to lunar orbit. At about the same time, United Launch Alliance posted a promotional video presentation with essentially the same concept, called "ULA Innovation: CisLunar 1000" proposing an advanced Centaur derivative called ACES (aka Centaur Heavy) to serve as the C-RUFTT:
NASA internal paper: "Kickstarting a New Era of Lunar Industrialization via Campaigns of Lunar COTS Missions" - Sept 2016 - 18 pages
authors: Dr. Allison F. Zuniga, Mark Turner, Dr. Daniel Rasky and Robert B. Pittman (NASA Ames Research Center) and Edgar Zapata (NASA Kennedy Space Center)
ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20170000827
United Launch Alliance promo video presentation: "ULA Innovation: CisLunar 1000"
run time: 7 mins., 13 sec. -- video still posted on Facebook, no longer on TH-cam
facebook.com/share/v/VrdWxMVeU9ZcyFFC/
United Launch Alliance promo video presentation: " ULA Innovation: Advanced Cryogenic Evolved Stage (ACES) / Centaur Heavy " run time: 8 mins., 3 sec. -- video still up on MechDesignTV channel on TH-cam
th-cam.com/video/Zi-HStWyk84/w-d-xo.htmlsi=jdwUWidCoAeNJQry
Pratt & Whitney Aircraft document - study prepared for NASA - Dec., 1973:
"Design study of RL10 derivatives. Volume 3, part 2: Operational and flight support plan"
ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/19740027085
6: Another aspirational goal: ULA and/or NASA will conduct more test flights of the LOFTID inflatable heat shield concept in 2025 or 2026.
7: Sierra Space will acquire United Launch Alliance (ULA) in 2025. ULA will begin launching Dream Chaser. ULA and Sierra Space will work together on some preliminary project for the Orbital Reef space station. Sierra Space will rename ULA as Sierra Launch Alliance (SLA).
8: Boeing will back out of the space industry in 2025. Sierra Space may acquire Boeing's space business as part of a deal to acquire ULA.
9: In Europe, there will be new developments involving re-usable launch vehicles, such as RFA or PLD.
10: ROSCOSMOS will suffer a major setback in 2025, possibly crippling the Russian space agency.
Looks like good predictions, and thanks for the references. #10 is sad but unfortunately they have been in decline for years.
I think vast haven 1 will launch but will not be able to man the station this year!!!
I think you mean pragmatic rather than pessimistic.
Yes, good word!
Not that I wish ill on SpaceX (or any other launch provider), but I think that, sooner or later, SpaceX is going to suffer a significant anomaly. It just stands to reason. If your failure rate is, say, 1-in-200, and you're pushing to launch 200 in a year, then the math says you should have a failure at least once in the year. It's incredible what SpaceX has done in developing the Falcon 9 workhorse, and they can almost launch on demand, but still I think the reaper will come calling in 2025. Hopefully it won't be a crewed flight.
I think Jared's nomination will go fairly easily. I don't see anyone in the Senate having an appetite for picking a fight, especially with the Republicans in charge. The Democrats have other nominees far more deserving of objection ... I do think, however, that any SLS hearings will be popcorn moments. If we use Obama's first term as a template, any attempt to cancel it probably won't be until early 2026, when the FY2027 budget proposal is released. The White House is already moving along the FY2026 budget proposal, and the Trump administration will be focused elsewhere. Jared probably won't be sworn in until March or April at the earliest, by which time budget hearings will have been held.
Re ULA, a big unknown is if it will be sold. Are there any buyers? Vulcan's business model certainly hasn't pencilled out from the days of, "We'll recover only the engines because it's cheaper than booster recovery." That turned out to be entirely wrong. Once the Atlas V missions end, I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing and LockMart decide to fold ULA ... Will anyone else achieve quick reusability like SpaceX? I don't see it happening any time soon, other than maybe Rocket Lab.
Starliner should fly sometime in 2025, donchyathink? But I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing pulls the plug there too.
Let's see, other predictions ... Elon's bromance with Trump falls out (again) once he realizes his $250 million in laundered campaign contributions didn't buy him the influence he thought it would buy him.
That's enough to put my dubious reputation on the line for next year.
The reports of ULA’s death are exaggerated IMO.
Now if they don’t pick up a single NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 rfp award, losing to BO,Sx, and RKLB, well then it’s lights out.
ULA’s future seems intrisinctly wedded to CNSA and China’s militarization. ULA is the pureplay Medium/Heavy lift defense provider, having almost no other commercial distractions besides Kuiper…..should always be of value to USSF who still values price about # 4 down selection.
Will be interesting if DOGE puts even a small dent (or just a pause) in USSF and DoD funding levels.
@@daveenright1235 DOGE isn't happening. Any "report" isn't due until summer 2026, when Congress is in summer recess. The report is no more than a recommendation, and has no binding requirement on the White House or Congress. The Obama White House tried something similar with the Simpson-Bowles commission; Congress blew it off.
SpaceX had a couple failures back several months ago. The first time paused their launches for 2 weeks to fix, so they've already gone through it.
IMO you got better odds with the Powerball than you do ever seeing Starliner fly again....As far as the Elon/Trump bromance goes, it never fell out a first time and Elon's 250 million has already gotten him dozens of his people appointed to positions throughout the trump administration including Jared to head NASA. And it boosted Elon's net worth to over 1/2 a trillion dollars. So I think it's safe to say it's unlikely Elon will be regretting his campaign efforts anytime soon.
I don't see Starliner flying in 2025, but I wish them luck!
Did you predict the useless rocket would FAIL to get a banana to LEO? Huh? Did you predict that???
I did not foresee bananas would be so important to spaceflight in 2024.