5:14: Yes! This fixture ticker is so much better than those which don´t show both the defensive and offensive dimension. Kudos! Would prefer another colors scheme though, typically green, yellow and red for the difficulty rating.
hey guys - big fan of the pod. What do you think is the optimal mix of review projectsion/market odds? is it 80/20 like farhan used? I imagine the market odds dont go out past a couple of GW at a time.
It is a bit tricky to find the ideal mix. We can do it in hindsight, but for future ones it depends how good Review is compared to the market odds now. I know people use 80/20 or usually only Review. You are right, Market Odds is sometimes implied, involving some derivations, which may be wrong. My suggestion would be trying with Review only, and also checking with Market-only to see if there is anything obviously different. Maybe we can do some visualization on this too, now I'm thinking. If not sure, I would try 80/20 or 50/50. -Sertalp
@@FPLOptimized Thank you, that makes sense. In general I tend to think that those who have put money on the line (assuming the market is liquid) will have the best approximation of the likelihood of an event haha. I like the idea of going 100/0 Review and 0/100 Odds to see what are the big changes, this will likely tell you about the model itself.
I agree about the market being more accurate. Sometimes you can even get the info about how much money can be bet in a particular line, which tells a lot about the confidence in the market. The only difficulty is translating 1 or 2 GWs of data into season (or at least a few GWs) projections. But yeah, I also think market-based models are good for sense check! Maybe we can cover them a bit more going forward. -Sertalp
Imo Davis is overrated as he is totally dependent on getting attacking returns which won´t be that many. Bringing in Kelleher might be ok in the short term, but it booking a future transfer. Flekken is no clean sheet machine, but of course will cover Kelleher when Becker returns. He wasn´t that great last season. Fernandes and Eze? Come on! Calvert-Lewin is surely not the best alternative in this price bracket. The same could be said about Andersen and Joao Pedro (do even know when he will be back from injury?) on the bench.
Why do you think so? I guess you would argue the Son and Bruno picks could be debated, vs a Saka, Salah, Palmer, etc? I think it's about making it all fit, with having Haaland in the team as well, plus the Spurs fixtures do look good. But I agree, it doesn't feel right to have no Arsenal.
5:14: Yes! This fixture ticker is so much better than those which don´t show both the defensive and offensive dimension. Kudos! Would prefer another colors scheme though, typically green, yellow and red for the difficulty rating.
Good point, and thanks for the comment! For some reason Sertalp likes purple... 😆
17:18: Regarding Flekken, this is only when paired with another playing keeper right?
Something different and interesting!!❤️
We try to be different! 👍
Great episode again guys! Liking the new Captaincy graphic
Thanks!
Salah also looks like a good captaincy shout
44K 😮✊
hey guys - big fan of the pod. What do you think is the optimal mix of review projectsion/market odds? is it 80/20 like farhan used? I imagine the market odds dont go out past a couple of GW at a time.
Thanks for the comment and question! I'll leave this one to Sertalp. 🙂
It is a bit tricky to find the ideal mix. We can do it in hindsight, but for future ones it depends how good Review is compared to the market odds now. I know people use 80/20 or usually only Review.
You are right, Market Odds is sometimes implied, involving some derivations, which may be wrong. My suggestion would be trying with Review only, and also checking with Market-only to see if there is anything obviously different. Maybe we can do some visualization on this too, now I'm thinking.
If not sure, I would try 80/20 or 50/50.
-Sertalp
@@FPLOptimized Thank you, that makes sense. In general I tend to think that those who have put money on the line (assuming the market is liquid) will have the best approximation of the likelihood of an event haha. I like the idea of going 100/0 Review and 0/100 Odds to see what are the big changes, this will likely tell you about the model itself.
I agree about the market being more accurate. Sometimes you can even get the info about how much money can be bet in a particular line, which tells a lot about the confidence in the market. The only difficulty is translating 1 or 2 GWs of data into season (or at least a few GWs) projections. But yeah, I also think market-based models are good for sense check!
Maybe we can cover them a bit more going forward.
-Sertalp
DCL is Maupay. Who will want Maupay in their team
Imo Davis is overrated as he is totally dependent on getting attacking returns which won´t be that many. Bringing in Kelleher might be ok in the short term, but it booking a future transfer. Flekken is no clean sheet machine, but of course will cover Kelleher when Becker returns. He wasn´t that great last season. Fernandes and Eze? Come on! Calvert-Lewin is surely not the best alternative in this price bracket. The same could be said about Andersen and Joao Pedro (do even know when he will be back from injury?) on the bench.
Hi ❤
17:18: That midfielder list looks just (horribly) wrong.
Why do you think so? I guess you would argue the Son and Bruno picks could be debated, vs a Saka, Salah, Palmer, etc? I think it's about making it all fit, with having Haaland in the team as well, plus the Spurs fixtures do look good. But I agree, it doesn't feel right to have no Arsenal.