Crossing The Strait? PLA Modernization And Taiwan

Wednesday, April 6, 2022
Hoover Institution, Stanford University
On behalf of Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region, and its National Security Task Force the Hoover Institution invites you to Crossing the Strait? PLA Modernization and Taiwan on Wednesday, April 6, 2022 from 11:30 am - 12:30 pm PT.
Drawing upon the new book Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan, Dr. Saunders will discuss China’s available military options, how organizational reforms and new capabilities have improved the PLA’s ability to execute these options, the current cross-strait military balance, the challenges China would face in trying to resolve the Taiwan issue by force, and how Beijing weighs military, economic, and political factors in its evolving Taiwan policy calculus. His presentation will draw upon extensive open-source analysis of PLA efforts to build the necessary power projection capabilities and discuss how lessons learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may affect thinking in China, Taiwan, and the United States.
Featuring Phillip C. Saunders Director, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs National Defense University, followed by conversation with Kharis Templeman, Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution.
SPEAKER BIOS
Kharis Templeman is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and part of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific. Templeman is a political scientist (Ph.D. 2012, Michigan) with research interests in Taiwan politics, democratization, elections and election management, party system development, dominant party systems, and politics and security issues in Pacific Asia, among other topics.
Dr. Phillip C. Saunders is the Director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, where he has worked since 2004. He previously worked at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and served as an officer in the United States Air Force. Dr. Saunders is co-author of The Paradox of Power: Sino-American Strategic Restraint in an Era of Vulnerability and has edited nine books on Asian security issues, including The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context (2021), Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA: Assessing Chinese Military Reforms (2019) and PLA Influence on China’s National Security Policymaking (2015).

[@user-jg8hp4xt4y]

Taiwan officially Republic of China(ROC) was established in 1912.China offcially People's Republic of China(PRC) was established on part soil of ROC in 1949.China is just a common name and used by ROC before 1971.China(PRC) lied about history with this common name which is used by 2 countries.Taiwan(ROC) is not part of China(PRC).China(PRC) don't have the right to say 'One China two systems' and 'One China policy' is totally a lie.

[@jimluebke3869]

With modern weapon systems, isn't it easier to send a fleet to the bottom of the Strait, than it is to build a fleet that will get across it?

[@paladin0654]

Please substitute CCP for PRC. Taiwan is an independent country in just about every way except for their declaration and international recognition.

[@qingzhou9983]

Great talk. I agree with the speaker that US currently does not have the ability to defeat PLA in Taiwan straits and the main focus should be the Cost/Benefit for Xi. This is why it is extremely important to not encouraging the Taiwan Independent movement. The biggest risk factor of current situation, like the speaker stated, the increase Taiwan Independence and when Xi and PRC consider it crossing the Line. Taiwan and some US politician are playing with the Fire right now. And Ukraine is the example. If Taiwan war starts, this will be lose-lose-lose situation for all 3 parties.

[@qingzhou9983]

Dr. Phillip C. Saunders is wrong to say Taiwan is more important to US than Ukraine. The real question is whether US wants a war with China to stop its rise or not. If YES, Taiwan is the perfect place to have that war. If not, then Taiwan is definitely not the place to have direct war with China, just like Ukraine.

[@philipford6183]

Thanks for a fascinating discussion. A couple of questions: Could Taiwan's military forces mount a significant resistance to PRC aggression? What is the state of Taiwan's military preparedness?

[@Lindatong2]

It is a good talk and very fact and analysis based. However, the overall thesis of this talk still sounds a lot like previous fear-mongering before the Vietnam War to justify defense budget increase. The doctrine of one-China policy from all the 3 sides is focused on peaceful unification and maintaining status quo. The Chinese military is still 25 years behind USA and about 1/10 of the US bloc. Just look at strategic nuclear arsenals, navy tonnage and tactical missiles. What does China gain from invasion of Taiwan? Ask the question: why would USA invade Puerto Rico or Canada? The status quo is happily thereafter unless the military-industry complex of both China and US want to make more profit and justify their existence. Philip might want sell more of his books but I would argue that he can probably think more critically the economic, political and humanitarian future for all three sides of this situation. Does Taiwan wants to become a pawn of the the US war game? Does China want to abandon its own peaceful rise and prosperity to serve some of the US military-industry complex narrative? Does the US public want to engage in another Vietnam war? As General Smedley Butler, the senior US Marine Corps officer, twice Medal of Honor recipient, and later pacifist thinker, said succinctly, “War is a racket”, and only the selected few elites would profit from war (or escalation, fear-mongering, lying, etc to promote war-making activities). These selected few and their media proxy happen to control the public opinion, political process and policy decisions as well - what a coincidence and hypocritical convenience! This book has some good research but the central assumption and narrative need serious examination because unlike Russia and Ukraine situation, China does not face existential threat from Taiwan and does not have a clear path for success. Even if Taiwan declares independence (very irrational but they might do under US pressure), China is still much better off to pursue the US-Canada relationship than an India-Pakistan relationship.

[@Anthrofuturism]

Their accelerating demographic collapse is likey to charge a more aggressive/expansionist approach in the near future. The advantages underpinning their current bargaining power are peaking sometime between now and within the next few years and they know this... so the rational calculus may very well prescribe the use of force during this short window in which the distribution of outcomes averages higher in their favor than it will in the coming decades.

[@jarrettbobbett5230]

Thanks Hoover.

[@Tom-yp3jb]

How will US allies in the region come in to play if a conflict were to break out? Especially Japan?

[@gu3585]

greeting from Taiwan.

[@clup3136]

Interesting!!

[@packman579]

China 🇨🇳 vs Taiwan next?

[@jamesrogers9056]

100 thousand fishing boats!!!

[@cumulusterraticus3446]

Wonderful Door- opener !
You humans make me crazy ! I make you a billionaire !👍🌻🐝
Future of the earth is our goal !