MLB Baseball's Are "Dead" Today, and You're Not Imagining It
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 ก.ย. 2024
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The mariners are going to use this video to justify why they've so terrible at offense 💀
Probably, instead of just *whispers* cheap ownership
@@madethecut it’s so hard to be a fan of that team 😩
Hey last 7 games we've scored 7 runs per game, our pitching just needs to keep up now
They're 10th in homeruns. Their problem is striking out. Not balls falling short at the warning track.
Tell that to the Phillies. Apparently against them they’re unstoppable.
Glad the Mariners can blame their putrid offense on dead balls and not cheap ownership (says with obvious sarcasm).
Hopefully Randy and JT can help! (I mean probably not a ton but maybe enough to win the west?)
@@madethecut depends entirely on how Verlander and Tucker look once they return for injury if they give Houston quality pitching and offense I don’t see the Mariners beating catching Houston. I will say however that the Mariners offense looks much better post deadline but I need a bigger sample to really believe they have turned the corner.
Give Jerry Dipoto his props for being a Moron and spending money on Urias, garver, Hanniger and Polanco. Although polanco has been doing better.
They're about to set an MLB record for most strikeouts in a season. It doesn't matter what the balls are made of. They can't hit it.
Victor Robles is an mvp candidate though
I don't have an issue with a new version of the "dead ball" I DO have a major problem that MLB has THREE different types of baseball and there is no consistency in which group of ball is being used in a given game. With how cozy MLB is with Vegas and gambling do you REALLY think the MLB cares about the integrity of the game!???
My guess is the surplus of previous balls and just trying to save money. They're still a business first and foremost.
At this point last season 1200 more runs had been scored :o 1200!!!
that's 5% of last year's total runs of 22,432
Which equates to 0.4 runs per game. That’s nothing, literally it doesn’t even round up to 1 run a game
@@xTRUExiNsANiTYx if you look at historic seasons, 1,200 runs is nothing; it's like the division between the most runs ever and the 3rd most; or between the 12th most and 16th most. Inconsequential
@@xTRUExiNsANiTYx It's very significant.
@@Garrett1240it literally averages to make less than 1 run/game of a difference. It’s not significant at all
I will say, Kwan completely readjusted his approach in the offseason to add more pop. He’s swinging and missing a lot more in order to hit for more power
Would love to see an anlaysis of the change in pitchers' "stuff" over the last few years. With the rise of the splitter and ever increasing velo, I wonder what effect that could be having. Also, when they look at expected distance, do they take into effect wind or humidity at all? Or do they just assume that should all even out.
Meanwhile Aaron Judge: 🗿
his xSLG is 36 points higher, he should somehow be hitting better
If you're that fucking huge you better be hitting every ball over 100mph...
@@derekconstantino7759that’s what logic would tell you, but in reality the man is one of a kind
Goliath’s little grand nephew?
Goldy Locks balls. It's crazy how fast that story got burried
Only problem is the drag coefficient, arguably the best statistical evidence that can be deduced purely by Statcast data on balls in play, has been unchanged from last year.
After watching the Brave's issues all year and so many HR die at the track, we all said this was the issue. I'm glad you put the data together, because I was sick of people trying to down play this because they hate Atlanta.
There was definitely something up the first two months of the season for ATL. I have never seen so many crushed hits just die at the warning track. It looked like there was a hard wind blowing in every single game. I think part of it is just weather. The Braves played a lot of games at pretty low temps the first month. Since the weather has got warmer, the ball is carrying better. Still down from expected but better. Of course the biggest problem for ATL is injuries and striking out too much. Can't really blame that on the ball.
@@wingracer1614 But with how many games were decided by less than 2 runs, on a team with 3+ almost HR a game most games, its an issue. The expected stats for Atlanta puts them closer to 22/23 stats, which were insane. 24 are a huge outlier, which while yes injuries and strike outs are worse, the maim difference in almost 20 wins from last year is the offensive drought
"It's all a theory, a baseball...... Nevermind"
"I understand that reference"
"-Play Ball!" Would probably be the end of the signoff
It's hard to say the ball is "dead" if you lived through 2014. Or frankly any time before 1996.
The environment of the 80s and early 90s, a relatively few strikeouts and homers, a lot of on the field action, was awfully entertaining. A situation that favors Steven Kwan type guys is probably not a bad thing, and might make for a more fun game to watch.
exactly. This this ball is "dead", what were those balls?
@@scipio7 Wholeheartedly agreed...
When Judge and Shohei are still league leading hitters, I don't think we're existing in a world where power hitters can't play their game. A ball that appears to also be rewarding contact hitters doesn't seem like a bad thing to me, batted balls in play are where so much of the fun of baseball lies. I'm not saying the balance is where it should be right now, but I just think you're trying to paint this as unquestionably a bad thing and I think there are pros and cons.
in my opinion I believe that MLB should start producing a more juiced ball, not as insane as 2019, but something to increase offence through xbh. however I believe that if they make a more juiced ball, they need to come up with a formula for some sort of substance to give pitchers more grip on the ball. in case anyone from the MLB is reading this, baseball is more exciting when the top pitchers are actually pitching instead of constantly being shut down due to TJ
what is TJ?
@@lqr824Tommy John Surgery
So basically, you want the scores to remain around the same as now?....
What then do we make of Judge's season? Best of all time relative to ball?
It's definitely up there as one of the best and definitely the best of any clean hitter in the modern era.
@@j-sinister9274 "Clean Hitter"
@@TiagoGomez-hb9teYou saying he be taking the Juice Pumpers?
@@TiagoGomez-hb9teuntil something is proven otherwise, you’re just being a dumbass fanboy for another team.
Perhaps he could be having an even more insane season than what he's having right now. Or maybe he knows something the rest of us don't...
damn 👎 baseball deserves a consistent ball
the balls arent even consistent throughout the season
its so stupid that people think this is a huge conspiracy and not just slight variations in how baseballs get manufactured
@@HughMungus4655the fact that MLB can’t provide consistent equipment is kinda pitiful
@@twite5462 or maybe youre whining about insignificant shit
good video man but slow the speech down a little and move the mic back a bit, it's hard to understand what's being said sometimes
Braves have had a lot more issues than the balls but Been saying this since 2nd week of season. Truist become a known hitters park but first weekend set guys where getting all the right ext velocity and launch angles but balls would be short of the track. Even the announcers were making comments on why the balls whereby going further.
I really think weather was part of it. It seemed like every game that first month both home and away was below 60 degrees with the wind blowing in. As soon as the weather warmed up, balls started flying again. Not like before no but not totally dead either.
It might have been dead till May (around 800) but since June the HR is on par with 22,23 season (around 900-1000) feel like they fixed the problem now
why on earth would the league want to hurt the game by taking away the most exciting part of it
It's not about 'hurting the game'. It's about Vegas making money. Changing the ball every so often makes it harder for bettors to play trends. Just my opinion.
@@bradleygermain6288 yeah you’re probably right
@@bradleygermain6288 Same
And yet Aaron Judge has 41 home runs on August 3rd.
I'm sure the yankees being mlbs favorite team has nothing to do with it, all jokes aside one outlier does not disprove a hypothesis or theory.
It’s kinda funny, since you could use Judge as a “counterpoint” in 2019 as well. A guy who usually destroys the ball hitting way less home runs than expected
Lower seams increases offense in two ways:
Less drag, longer flight
Less break or movement on the pitch, easier to hit.
They should bring back those baseballs
They should just keep a consistent ball. 2019 guys were hitting bombs to opposite field on what looks like it should have been pop flys.
Home runs are definitely down this year from last year. I live in MA and started betting last season, I can clearly see the difference. Last year there were 5,868 homers between the NL and AL. This year to this point there have been 3,773, and I highly doubt there will be 2k+ hit for the remainder of the season. It's going to finish way under, though they have picked up since July, just not close to the pace needed to meet last year's totals.
@@irtnyc yeah, they're cheating on home runs, okay my guy.
2:26 bro, you just showed the xSLG vs SLG being negative in 2023, it's not the first year
Been watching you since 2018 when you only made highlights, you have come a long way. I am happy to be a og fan
I watch the clips of all the batter balls in this video, and I’m not seeing many that deserve to be better than fly out. They’re high fly balls to the deepest parts of the park. Some of them are on bad swings, and obviously not squared up. I’m not really seeing an issue here, those swings don’t deserve to be homers
The Mariners play in a cavernous park. If they played in Yankee Stadium, their OPS would increase by 200.
Yankee stadium ranks 20th in park factor. This narrative gets pushed way too much
@@GunPlayGamingTv Because Yankees stadium is the ballpark where Batting Average goes to die...
If it's an expected stat how do we know it's not the computing of that stat is wrong?
based on historical data and physics. A ball hit at x speed and launch angle is expected to go this far based on data complied since 2015 of similar hits. They can even measure how the weather impacts those hits.
the MLB has historically messed around with when they decomission balls. so a new Dead Ball era is not unprecedented.
Wish they would stop trying to manufacture the game. Let the players do their thing and adjust.
I bet the Yankees are still getting the "Goldy Locks" balls
It's not the ball, the outfielders are just playing much deeper this year. Batters have been focusing on launch angle and slugging so teams have started to control what they can and that is "prevent the extra base hit". That's why we've seen an increase in bloop base hits (which matches up with your "who's slugging above expected" players). Balls that would either go deep into the gap or over the OF's heads are now just singles or caught at the track. Slugging percentage goes down when this occurs.
Thanks for the elaboration...
Shouldn’t this be able to be measured? If balls are being hit just as hard but not going as far we should be able to calculate drag and bounce?
I honestly knew I wasn't crazy. Those balls are definitely dead right now. I've seen guys whose swings I've been watching for years change nothing and not drop off the production cliff but notice a big dip this year. Idk if it's because of the new Pitching talent. Idk if it's because of the juiced ball allegations. It just feels and looks weird.
However, I have noticed a slight shift towards the hitters adjusting as the year has progressed. It's still not great, but I think we'll see the overall curve of the line to rise post all star and trade deadline this year. Maybe I'm crazy.
Patrick wisdom hit one 111mph off the bat at like 34° and it was a warning track fly out
@@alexm.6533 likewise, Happ has hit some absolute no doubters from last year that just died on the track. Past the strikeouts, I'm curious how much it hurt Morel this year. Just an a bunch of oddballs out here, I tell ya.
Not sure I believe it. Baltimore moved it's short porch back quite a bit, and they are nuking the ball this season like never before
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
The league messes with the ball every single year, this is not new news
Whoa...I watch your vids despite barely following baseball, and the stats were coming hard and fast there for a bit. How are all of these "expected" stats being calculated? It doesn't effect your argument in this vid at all, but maybe an idea for an easy (for you) video would be to explain some of these more advanced metrics for people like me that aren't as familiar, but still love sports stats. I just get uncomfortable when I don't know exactly how some of the stats are calculated, even if they are common parlance to you.
They will liven up in playoffs. Watch
Humidors don't necessarily make balls "wet." I'm sure they can be adjusted over a wide range of humidities, even to make the balls uniformly dry.
You insinuate that the late 90's power spike was due to PED use. But the efficient cause is a live ball.
Really fascinating. I always thought the humidity just meant a normal ball traveled further in the air, hence Fulton County Stadium being called the launching pad. I didn't realize it had an effect on the balls themselves. I do remember the temperature being a big thing because well it was a bit before my time I remember in 1967 the White Sox would store balls in the freezer. I guess you could say in baseball is with anything it's not just the heat it's the humidity. :-)
Never before? You have heard of the deadball era right?
He said if you paid attention, since the stat era.
I was betting those overs and chaching... now with lack of homers means less consistent runs, so now there is no telling if a game is gonna go over or under the spread.
I think sports betting books/ casinos have a hand in this.
Now try to imagine ball manufacturer consistency in the 20s or 40s 😂
I’d be curious to see how the guardians compare to previous years.
BEST CHANNEL ON TH-cam KEEP IT UP❤️⚾️
This should be as big a scandal as the Black Sox
With all the online sports betting they most likely won’t acknowledge it
@@otfaj6962 Truth
I love flyouts. Homeruns are boring. I like watching good fielding and runners trying to make their way from base to base. Steals, pickoffs, double plays, rundowns. That's baseball. As soon as a ball goes over the fence, I'm heading for a hotdog or to the men's room. I can likely make it without missing much.
The mariners being cheap isn’t completely their fault. A big part of why they had to sign lesser free agents and spend less money is because of RSNs losing a ton of money
It's also way down in NPB
Youre telling me Juan Soto should be even better than he is? Thats crazy
"At the top of the league right now are the Orioles, the Yankees, the Dodgers, and the Braves"
Me, a Phillies fan: ????
I think he meant in terms of expected slugging percentage
A baseball theory…
This is baseball trying to tell the players to stops trying to swing for the fences all the time. It is time to bring back the level swings and value batting average again.
But doesn't Stephen Kwan currently have twice the number of home runs than in previous full season years?
Oh, man. I don't miss the shift (4:15). Not even a little bit...☺
Funny how all of this is happening under the watch of Manfred.
Imagine what Judge and Ohtani could be doing?
So just how many HRs would Judge have with a livelier ball?
Judge already hit 40 homer’s I think the ball is fine the true power hitters in baseball will at least hit 30 plus.
Controversial topic. Im not touching that with a 10 foot pole
Kwan is just good
I don’t get what all this “dead ball” talk is all about. It’s clearly just the marine layer and it’ll be cleared up by July!
You need to apologize to my boy austin barnes 😤 hes batting .270
Good video
Well, they cheaped out on the uniforms, so would you put cheaping out on the baseballs past them?
If a team is 24 points below expected, it's .024, not .24. :-)
bot comments going crazy
So annoying man
I think mlb would be more likely to juice the balls to increase offense for new fans. Only established fans care to see pitchers duel.
Tatis hasn't played since, when? Was it even this season. Barely feels like it.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .714 with 5 hits, a homer, 2 RBIs and 3 runs scored in 2 games this month. -statmuse
omg guys its august and offense is back!!! /s
always the braves
Aaron Judge doesn’t think the balls are dead
I really think MLB sends juiced balls to NY. The Braves bats were dead when they went to NY, then all of a sudden they are crushing it. That NY v Bal series, every game everywhere else was a low scoring game but in NY both teams were putting up runs. Of course the fact that it's such a short field helps a lot..
@@wingracer1614so your assumption that there are juiced balls in NY is based on the fact that Atlanta couldn’t hit in NY and then proceeded to hit better after they left?
@@wingracer1614dumbest comment ever
3:20 What??? Where are the Guardians???
"The Oddball Conspiracy"
The BRAVES?!?!?! 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Someone should let judge and ohtani know
Next he'll say Babe Ruth couldn't hit today.
So literally everyone is sleeping on the guards… okay
As a Yankees fan idk if this applies to judge or Soto tbh
Well being jacked and 6' 7" will tend to make baseball easier for you.
I mean take a look at the entire guardians team.
How does something nonexistent die?
Meanwhile Cleveland Guardians
Batting Average and OBP win games...
Are you forgetting the tenth place when you mention these stats? .071
Dead today, juiced tomorrow 🤷♂️🤦♂️
They did change the mud source
COR stands for core of restitution
Coefficient of restitution.
@@wingracer1614 COR: Core Of coRe
Pardon my lack of understanding here with how batting stats are calculated, but couldn't we plot out exit velocity and trajectory as a function of recorded distance to isolate the effects of the ball per year (even per month if we want that level of granularity)? Exit velocity and trajectory are pretty much calculated at impact while distance should be once it lands right? Or is distance sort of "predicted" based on those impact metrics?
Feel like it wouldn't be too hard if we had flight time/distance data to see if the balls did anything different across seasons/months.
It becomes more difficult because you have to factor in humidity altitude temperature wind
@@Kitt_the_Katt Yeah, for sure, there’s other factors. I just figure that those variables all average out if we’re comparing season to season.
You could do it by stadium as well to help with that @@joshuaslee
and location of the pitch...
Check which young position players are up for arbitration or new contracts this off-season. A bad offensive year could save the owners a few pretty pennies.
The problem with this theory, a lot of big pitchers are free agents at the end of the year. So a dead ball could mean big money for them.
@@wingracer1614 If teams want to put big money into a Tommy John time bomb, that's unfortunately where a lot of pitchers have trended towards.
@@nick0875 Yeah, or they could put big money into a hitter that now that he has that big guaranteed contract decides not to play (Rendon) or constantly gets hurt (Trout).
There not it’s just pitchers are getting betyer
They're not juiced anymore.
The league added a humidor to each ballpark two years ago. I have been lucky enough to attend a few braves games each year. It sounds less like a baseball being hit and more like a block of wood or maybe a brick this year.
@@mrbreck1 That's really lame
Love this
goodgriefthis guyreallyknows how tospeakunintelligibly fast. Evenwhenyou slowitdown youstillcan't undstandwaword hesays. Thisiswhy I can't tolerate Artificial Illiteracy. It's either painfully slow
with pauses as pregnant
as elephants or
speechsofast you can'ttellwhereoneword ends andthenext begins.
A BASEBALL THEORY
love your content, but i wish youd slow your speech down some. Theres no reason to talk/read the script so fast
Your microphone is too close to your mouth, it feels like you are spitting in my ear.
You usually gotta pay for that and he’s doing it for free. Sounds like a win to me.
Air is denser this year due to wildfires over the past couple of years... hahahha.
Global warming.
Sounds a little too tinfoil hat
Wow uploaded 57 seconds ago
Dead balls are boring, keep them juiced. I want baseball scores to look like football.
You want Steroid Era baseball back?