Don't Worry THIS ISN'T A HOUSING CRASH
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ต.ค. 2024
- Here's the thing, there is not actual definition for what a "housing crash" actually is. The definition is all subjective. My opinion is if home prices crash by 20% or more within a 2 year period, thats a crash. Maybe your opinion on that is different. But here's some evidence that we are already in a housing crash just in the last 6 months.
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it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.
A lot of folks have been going on about the bull rally and said stocks that would be experiencing significant growth, any idea which stocks this may be? I just sold my home in the Boca Grande area and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market before stocks rebound, is this a good time to buy or no?
Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of a planner, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking.
True, we’re only just an information away from amassing wealth, I know a lot of folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present market, could this coach that guides yo help?
Having a fduciary is essential for proper portfolio diversification to make gains. My advisor is LOREN LENA WALKER who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
I find it satisfying to hear about real estate investors experiencing financial losses. They play a significant role in shaping the current state of the real estate market.
If you lack market knowledge, seeking guidance or assistance from a consultant or investing coach is the recommended course of action. Personally, speaking with a consultant has been instrumental in my ability to navigate the market successfully and achieve a portfolio growth of approximately 65% since January. While it may seem like a common or generic suggestion, I genuinely believe it is the most effective approach to enter the business at this time..
I am currently in communication with JENNY PAMOGAS CANAYA. She maintains an online presence, allowing you to gather more information about her through a simple search..
I am currently in communication with JENNY PAMOGAS CANAYA. She maintains an online presence, allowing you to gather more information about her through a simple search.!!
I'm glad that the provided information was helpful to you. It's great to hear that you were able to find the contact information for JENNY PAMOGAS CANAYA. and that you perceive her as highly skilled and adaptable. Scheduling a call session with her sounds like a productive step.!!
The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?
Home prices may be dropping but they’re still so overpriced it doesn’t matter!
Home prices are not dropping. 🙄
@@WelcomeIncorporated It depends on where you live. Some areas are clearly dropping, others are still rising.
@@WelcomeIncorporated sellers list their homes with the rosy-tinted expectations of prices from a year back........thus the mirage that home prices are not dropping. When they remain unsold for a few months, the prices will come down. Currently, the sellers are in denial.
Nobody cares
@OtisFlint Nationally they are not dropping. Obviously some areas are up and down everybody knows that. Nationally they are UP.
Went to an open house yesterday. The agent told me "marry the house, date the rate," I wanted to gag. House was overpriced compared to recent comps - roof, AC, water heater 13 years old, good luck getting homeowners insurance.
A 13 year old water heater is no big deal haha
@@jizzyjake6783 True. But the roof is when you live in FL and need homeowners insurance.
@@noreenn6976Seriously. Coastal TX here, people trying to sell houses with a 15-20 year old roof are out of their minds. Better drop your price $20k-$40k if you’re pulling that because these roofs are costing $20k minimum
I've been boycotting things and brands that I feel are taking advantage of us, no more starbucks, no more target, started meal prepping and shopping in bulk, limit restaurants to biweekly , and just saving wherever I can really, I work I health care and have a great salary, my wife also, I still can't afford a home with the current Miami prices, if I didn't have a paid townhouse I purchased in the mid 2000s I'd be hating life right now, inflation is killing people little by little, soon all Hell is going to break loose. It will be the worst crash of all time, unless they print and inflation will go through the roof, mid teens easily.
Move.
I live in Miami-Dade and feel the same way. I make good money and have a stable job that won’t be affected by unemployment. I refuse to get something because a realtor tells me it’s ok to spend 40 percent of my salary on a mortgage.
Saw a realtor ad in my daughter's school a few weeks ago... guy says in the ad " don't be scared of interest rates" ... I almost died. I was going to blast him on social media but I'm better than that.
Exactly! Did you notice the sudden drop in gas prices today?
What is fascinating that this 30% drop is not even enough to go back to pre-pandemic already high home prices.
No doubt. I think a median average of 416k is still very high and out of the range of most buyers
Almost the entire video is misinformation. He is presenting the new construction chart and stating that it represents existing homes as well. Look up "FRED Median Sales Price of Existing Homes" and you get a totally different story. And the reason the median sales price is going down for NEW CONSTRUCTION is because they are building smaller and using cheaper materials. It's shrinkflation. You can verify this by reading the quarterly reports for the publicly traded homebuilders.
@@ComicLover-oj5svexactly. I caught that too.
It’s not fascinating. It’s because house prices are up 300% or even more in some places in just the last 36 months. It’s a direct result of the 9 trillion printed in the last 36 months. Housing prices have a loooong way to fall.
depends where you live
I paid 73k for my home in Ohio. 17 years ago @ pond some woods 2 acres of yard . Now my taxes have doubled.. and I had a offer for 425k. And said no. It’s not even listed
$425k - Wow! 😳
2 acres with a pond is nice as long as you didn't clear all your trees out. I bought 10 acres for $80K in Texas.
@@DIVISIONINCISIONwhere I live in Texas the land is selling for almost $ 900.000 an acre. It’s all about the location
@MeadowDay where in Texas?
Maybe you should have taken that offer. Don’t expect it later
Houses are just way too overpriced ❗️ This can’t stay like this and things will change. I refuse to overpay for anything no matter what 😮!
Thank you Michael for your honesty and keeping us updated on current real estate markets. Blessings, Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
You’re very welcome Carlos always love hearing from you my man!
I hope you can retire in peace, Carlos.
🙏💜🙏💜🙏💜
My first house cost 27k. It was a foreclosure, this was 1979. My income was 30 k. Today I make 250k and do not feel comfortable buying a home in Montreal as anything normal is a million ! My sons first job will be 50 k and a similar home to my first house will be 500k. I have no doubts home prices will crash ! More than anyone can imagine!
Canada is socialist. You would be better off leaving the country.
BTW : SIDE NOTE- I just came back from getting ice cream with my daughter, I couldn't believe how empty that parking lot was. Usually I have to park on the edge row. It was 80-85% vacant. That can't be a good sign folks.
I am a regular at one of the local restaurants in my city, love their food. Was chatting with the owner and he mentioned just how much sales are falling this year compared to previous years. They have paid off their store's space, so they can maintain their business, but other places might not be so lucky. He thinks that people just don't have money to go out and buy take-out food right now.
Nobody is going out to eat around me, even the cheap places are $25 per person. Someone on Reddit said they took their wife to waffle house and the bill for the two of them was $50, what the heck is going on? Waffle house? lol.
Naw Waffle House is still sub 40 bucks for two people with tip
I'm in a smaller area, 40k people. The ice cream shop here is packed solid every night of the week.
@@SomeUserNameBlahBlah it's probably a good deal, how muh is a cone?
Definitely doesn’t feel like a crash here in FL. People are still moving here in huge numbers, and inventory is super low. Prices/mortgage rates are staying high, and affordability is getting worse every day.
the ones im watching in Plant_City, FL they still there and has bien over a month they are not being sold yet, and yes these houses are expensive
The only people selling houses are those forced to move due to military or work assignment, divorce sales, or estate sales. Nobody is selling to “move up” to a better house. They can’t, they are locked into 2.5% mortgages, and if they sell, they’d have to get a 7% mortgage.
Military service-members who are transferring duty stations don't have any equity built up in their "rental house" to begin with, so it doesn't matter what the mortgage is. They only stay there 2-4 years at most. How do I know? They live all around me. Don't take care of their property, but are shocked when they lose money at closing.
Also death and foreclosure.
I’m retired military and took care of my house. Bought it and had orders drop for Korea. So we put it on the market as a rental. We under cut everyone in our neighborhood and it stayed rented out for 10 years. Then we sold it. I know a lot of military that keeps their home but turn it into a rental. Some do sell it. I also know a lot of military that just rents a house due to moving so much.
Hard for landlords to sell too. Don't want to evict tenants to sell it, can't sell it with tenants, they get stuck and can't sell.
I am actually in the process of pre approval with fairway and I was quoted a monthly payment price WITH the mortgage buy-down, but I didn’t know what that was. The lender I was with tried to hide it even. I had to ask why the rate was so low. Then he “forgot” to inform me that it is only temporary. I’m backing out of the housing market for my first home, I pray that someday things change but until then I’m renting. I make $105,000 a year with no debt, and I can only afford a trailer in a trailer park. Depressing
When prices come back down to earth, you'll be glad you waited. Keep saving more for a down payment and extra expenses, and you should be in a great position to buy a home.
Sad state of affairs with our current house market.
It looks to me like a housing bubble was already forming before the pandemic. Look at the rate of increase after 2012 or so. It's steeper than the increase before the 2008 crash. The policies following the pandemic and other contributing factors just caused it to explode faster.
3 or 4 Presidents riding low interest rates didn't help. The injection of money from the Pandemic was the nail in the coffin.
Pandemic policies completely broke housing. No evictions, mortgage forbearance, ridiculously low interest rates. Like I get it. Government didn't want a repeat of 08 where millions lost their homes, but they created the opposite problem of affordability. They may have only delayed the inevitable.
This is not a housing crash. This is an affordability crash. What you could have afforded then, you can’t afford now.
It's an inventory crash.
Call it what you want. But something will change in the market otherwise the market will eventually completely freeze. Which is the death of a debt based system if that happens.
It's a Depression.
@josh-bodnar What? Homewonwrs have record amounts of equity. One third of owners are free and clear. That's the exact opposite of "debt". Unless you are talking about renters.
This is an inflationary up-leg,ALL class categories will grow exponentially those that can buy will
We’ve been rving on Oregon coast since June 1 and have looked at many homes. Anything that isn’t a wreck or not updated since built is double the price of 2018 and not selling.
Have a family member who’s a realtor. She says currently all the home sales she’s witnessing are involving concessions from the seller.
I know here houses are staying up 30+ days and are dropping in price. We haven't had inventory higher than 200 homes till 4-5 months ago and we are currently at 800 and counting. I'm waiting for the cooldown, I'm ready to buy lol.
@@Twisted86 To put it in context, this is occurring in SE Florida.
@@rjo8500 Mine is in South Missouri. I'm ready for it though.
bribe the buyers to buy my house not the one down the street
More inventory in SW FL--Pasco. Home builders have slowed the building to a crawl. Still have areas of future development where the land is cleared but no home started yet.
You're so good at explaining this to people I hope they're listening
he rocks!
Almost the entire video is misinformation. He is presenting the new construction chart and stating that it represents existing homes as well. Look up "FRED Median Sales Price of Existing Homes" and you get a totally different story. And the reason the median sales price is going down for NEW CONSTRUCTION is because they are building smaller and using cheaper materials. It's shrinkflation. You can verify this by reading the quarterly reports for the publicly traded homebuilders.
Tbh I used to be part of the FOMO group. Then, after seeing your videos for the past few months, it makes me glad I didn't jump into a home. You're giving honest education so people don't drown financially, and I appreciate it so much. So I'm sitting down renting and waiting for a better market. Thank you for your videos!
Remember if everyone does this then we will see a surge again in the next few years.
Almost the entire video is misinformation. He is presenting the new construction chart and stating that it represents existing homes as well. Look up "FRED Median Sales Price of Existing Homes" and you get a totally different story. And the reason the median sales price is going down for NEW CONSTRUCTION is because they are building smaller and using cheaper materials. It's shrinkflation. You can verify this by reading the quarterly reports for the publicly traded homebuilders.
I think you should have bought when you were FOMO. Prices might be dropping but the payments have now doubled. 3% was a good deal that allowed owners to build equity quickly compared to the rates they have today. People who have been waiting since 2020 will need a home to be 1/3 of the cost to be able to make waiting worthwhile. I don’t believe prices will drop that far. What could have costed $1600 per month to buy now costs $3200.
@@Jack-pd4ps 100%
@Jack-pd4ps I would have if I could but I wasn't as high of an earner back then in wages. My income was 13 an hr as a paramedic. Even with OT and side hustles (which I tried to squeeze in as often as I could) I couldn't hit the 20% down I was shooting for fast enough. Looking back I was putting more money into my retirement accounts then I was saving on the back end for a down payment. I've changed jobs since then and make a lot better of an income. But it is what it is.
Report from Mesquite NV. No housing crash here, in fact, houses are selling as fast as they can get them built.
You’re a level headed guy,& appear to present the facts, after your research. Definitely much better than mainstream media. Always rockin with ya Michael.💯👏🏾😀💜✝️🙏🏾🇺🇸
He sells fear. Don't be fooled my boy.
@@AssetAddict Are you doing the Biden LJLJ thing. So funny🤣
Thank you !
❤🙏☺️
@@AssetAddict You have to be a lib, because you dom't know the difference between glenda and glen. I don't believe glenda is a boy.
I am all for double digits interest rates and wishing for them
ditto
High double digits please 😊 Let’s keep it at a minimum of 12%
The higher, the better!
You are very level headed, Michael! We appreciated that you are honest with us!
Thank you very much Jeannie. I figured most people who watch would think that.
1,300 people a day buy homes in flood zones on purpose. That is crazy. The federal government needs to get out of the flood insurance business. The government should not be subsidizing bad decisions.
Just had an unexpected housing problem. Water heater blew. Good thing I have an emergency fund for replacement. New homeowners might not be able to afford this unexpected repair.
Okay lol
If you buy a brand new home and have no savings, you’ll most likely receive a good chunk in tax returns over the course of the first 3 years. There’s your emergency savings.
Definitely better have a savings when you buy a used home. Previous homeowners seem to like to sale before a big ticket item is about to go out.
Wait until you need to replace the roof. Water heater is nothing in comparison. Did my own water heater for $300. Roof cost me almost 13 grand.
@@jasonsheehan7782That's pretty reasonable for a roof!
New homes everything under warrenty
People are moving out of Winter Garden , Florida and moving back to Brazil because it’s cheaper to live in Brazil than Florida. Less students in schools and Orange County School District is laying off teachers due to enrollment recalculations
Brazil is a cesspool. Why would anyone move there? Yes, it's cheaper, because there are no police or anyone to enforce laws. You are on your own there.
Well, I know my Brazilian neighbors are NO WAY moving back to Brazil. They said 🤚 NO WAY.
@@FloridaGirl-Indeed, if it’s bad in here imagine in Brazil😞
My wife is Brazilian. No way you could get her family to go back. They would all dig ditches if that is what it took to stay in the USA. All they talk about is the USA and how most Americans have zero clue how good they have it.
They don’t even go back to visit anymore.
People every single day are risking their lives to get from South America to the USA.
They went from the favelas to owning million dollar homes in a single generation. That is the power of the USA and the opportunities it offers. No way they are giving that up.
God bless the USA!!!
Highest interest rates? My first mortgage rate was 13% in 1985, yes houses were much more affordable!
Paid 13.5 percent back then in Canada. Prices were a lot less, but it was still painfull at nine bucks an hour. (with a partner)
Hey Mike you're so right again went to Arizona outside of Phoenix last month to look at Houses looked at a bunch of new builds since we've been back. It's only been a month and the realtor is called us to tell us to houses are down 25 to 30k same ones we looked at since we left
Phoenix is not a value buy now, hasn't been for 10 years. Those buy low opportunities are still available in other states, like Texas. Just have to know where to look.
You’re definitely level headed Michael. Keep up the good work. I’m watching from the sidelines debt free.
Thank you Michael and your friend Nick from Reventure consulting for being the only two guys who actually tell the TRUTH while everyone has their head in the CLOUDS!!! Kudos to you for what you both bring to your channels!!!! :)- The Government created this ENTIRE ME$$ and now they want to blame the market for what THEY started!!! Unbelievable!!!
Almost the entire video is misinformation. He is presenting the new construction chart and stating that it represents existing homes as well. Look up "FRED Median Sales Price of Existing Homes" and you get a totally different story. And the reason the median sales price is going down for NEW CONSTRUCTION is because they are building smaller and using cheaper materials. It's shrinkflation. You can verify this by reading the quarterly reports for the publicly traded homebuilders.
There are other good TH-camrs: Stock Market Gambler is another one.
When interest go to 10% or higher home price will crash back to 2010 level
I highly doubt that. Inventory is still low which causes home prices to increase unfortunately
You are the man for charting your premiums data points. You always go the extra mile.
Thanks!
Almost the entire video is misinformation. He is presenting the new construction chart and stating that it represents existing homes as well. Look up "FRED Median Sales Price of Existing Homes" and you get a totally different story. And the reason the median sales price is going down for NEW CONSTRUCTION is because they are building smaller and using cheaper materials. It's shrinkflation. You can verify this by reading the quarterly reports for the publicly traded homebuilders.
Also, what’s up with Dave Ramsey?
I love him too,
But I feel like he isn’t being honest about the market.
Dave Ramsey has sold out he’s part of the system of course he’s lying about the market
If you’re following his home buying guidelines, you’re probably fine to buy. 20% down, 15 yr mortgage, payments no more than 25% of your monthly income, and all your other debt paid off. That’s a pretty good financial position. Waiting for the market to bottom can take years.
Either he believes what he saying or he’s just a liar
Almost the entire video is misinformation. He is presenting the new construction chart and stating that it represents existing homes as well. Look up "FRED Median Sales Price of Existing Homes" and you get a totally different story. And the reason the median sales price is going down for NEW CONSTRUCTION is because they are building smaller and using cheaper materials. It's shrinkflation. You can verify this by reading the quarterly reports for the publicly traded homebuilders.
California and Florida aren't good gauges for the country as a whole 😕
I agree
You first time home buyers you have a window to make sure your credit is on point, pay off you credit cards and keep saving. No vacation, no eating out rice and beans everyday. Gotta prepare for the storm before it hits I see a 2 year window at least stay positive.
The Absorption Rate is an indicator that not many talk about. Here in Niagara Falls Canada, September was at 11%. 30-60% is considered balanced. At peak 2022 it was 125%. Homes not selling well and prices are trending down, and at a faster rate.
19:00 that’s me!
I purchased May 2023. The short answer is that I lowered my standards lol.
It’s a townhouse in a sh*t part of town that I can afford. I’m not underwater, but my payment is a couple hundred more than when I rented.
I qualified with partner for $400k range and bought $200k range.
I think new buyers will have to lower their standards drastically until wages catch up
As stated before. I'm putting my 600 grand, which is extra money that I was going to buy a house back into a Treasury, a Money Market, and a CD. I refuse to play the artificially made bubble made by speculative market. And even how fast the prices are in decreasing, (IN SOME AREAS) It will NOT go down far enough to reach parity with what the housing cost Should be. Been doing this for 38 years... I'm no fool in dealing with financial industry. I'm just too blunt dealing with talking heads in the industries I deal with.
You have $600K but didn't buy a new house back in 2019 during the last dip? You missed the opportunity to buy low, with a 3% interest rate. In the future, pay attention to the market more carefully and you won't miss the next dip, likely 2025/6.
I think that’s pretty smart right now
My 400k house is losing 2k a month per Zillow. I'm not concerned, yet, I bought it for 315k in September 2020. At this rate I'll get back down to sale price in 2026 if nothing changes. Even then it won't matter, at 2.71% APY it's cheaper than rent. A one bedroom, one bath apartment with no garage is 1k a month here, it's insanity.
You're never going to be underwater. It'll dip and stagnate for awhile, but 2020 buyers will be fine.
@@OtisFlint I'll never be underwater already, we are agressively paying it off. We have switched gears though, no reason to pay off a 2.71% loan when we can get 5% in the money market right now. Once that yeild drops below 2.71% all of that money will go right on the house, hopefully pay it off.
@@OtisFlint BTW, as you probably guessed, I'm super fun at parties /s
I wish 1bed 1 bath apartments were $1k where I am.
You’re golden. No one cares about price when the mortgage is well below rent and the cheapest housing option for them.
Things look like strange things right now, inflation is in reality 25 percent, yet interest rate is way lower. Majority cannot afford a mortgage, yet house market is still in hyper priced bubble. This will fall like a house of cards.
I saw a house sold last year for $1.1 mil, now for sale for $1.6 mil. Been on the market for months…
It shows prices are going up if you are in it for the long haul so yes buying a house is GOOD but when you do pull the trigger timing is critical
We just closed on our house, very happy with waiting and getting what we need as a family. We have concrete plans to pay it off in 2-5 years. I’m glad we’ve been paying attention to market drops and knowing what our numbers are to stay within affordable bounds.
I love your stuff - keep doing what you do.
Thank you, I will!
Michael, in Maryland the better houses 2000 sqft at $479,000 are selling like warm bread. I don't know from where people have so much money...
My lender has offered me a rate of 7.6 which I cannot afford.
$400K is not "so much money" if you have education and a well paying career, having no wife/kids helps, also. Less overhead.
We’ve been watching the area around Lillian and Foley AL. An interesting thing we’ve noticed is the number of “new” listings. New but not new. The houses are sitting for 100+ days and then they are taken off the market for a few days. Suddenly they are listed as a “new” listing. Maybe a few “new” photos to jazz it up a bit. Another open house scheduled. The whole shebang. Hurry! A new home on the market. Come get it before someone else does. I’ve made it a habit to look in the history to see how long it’s really been listed.
Still, unless something catastrophic happens in the economy. I don't believe we'll ever see great recession prices. 23 years ago, my dad bought a 1 bedroom home for 80k. Today, houses in that area are worth between 250k-350k (in a major city). When the "Great recession happened, prices dipped to little over 100k for couple months before bouncing up again. 300-400% Inflation on homes in 2 decades is kind of crazy. If you're in the market, I wouldn't wait to time the bottom. As long as you're comfortable with the payments it's always a good Idea to invest in a home. Little over 10 years later most homeowners were in the green again. Investors will gobble up the deals and over leveraged people get rekt. Get your finances in order
I agree with you. I would love to believe that if I save $ and wait for rates to go down, I would get a better deal. However from what I see, when those interest rates drop, we will have another pandemic market with multiple offers on one home which ultimately drives prices higher. So that $350k home that you are hoping will decrease will actually be $400k when rates drop. If you can afford it, lock in a price and refinance later. Homes are still selling regardless of what people are seeing on social media.
My parents bought their first home in 1968 for 18k. 3 bedroom 1 bath 1 car garage. This was in Illinois.
With my rent so high it is impossible for me to save money for a down payment! I live in Wisconsin, no state is immune to not having affordable housing for single people or senior citizens. Not everyone has someone to live with and share living expenses.
My Zillow Zestimates ..went up over $10,000+ on 3 of my properties this week
Congrats!!
Curious to find out percentage of people who would rather have less house but "turn key" vs a larger home, maybe nicer neighborhood, larger lot but needs work for same price. I've been told today everyone wants it all now, not fix or design. Has society changed that much? Would love a survey ❤
its a whole country crash.
Whole world.
Truth
Noticing the street condition in the background of your video, it’s crazy how states like CA and NJ (where I live) have roads that are falling apart when we are in the top 3 highest taxed states in the US. It’s bonkers to me
A small decrease like 5% is nothing when houses are over vaules by 50%-100%.
I'm in the UK and your content is fascinating because when the US catches a cold we in the UK sneeze and to be honest the housing markets in the US UK and Australia are very similar
Stumbled across your channel today you seem like a genuine guy. I appreciate all the help you're giving Everyone, love the great advice 👍🏻
Whatever this is ots FRUSTRATING. Only shitty places are SLIGHTLY reducing. Illinois, Nebraska etc. Sacramento still starts at 600k$ and higher. Seattle is $700 for old old small homes.
you did that golfer dirty Mike, that was one of the worst swings I've ever seen
Ha ha I wouldn’t know I don’t golf. Just figured I’d share what I saw.
As you have been saying....I just got a notice about a special meeting for a special assessment to cover the increase in our building's insurance in St Pete. Glad I just got back from a vacation!
Yep unfortunately everyone’s gonna get hit with that
Good luck with your milestone study! My condo SA is $87k and counting AND we've been shut down for 9 months. Bay Cty FL...😢
Thank you for the video Michael. I appreciate you sir. ❤❤😊😊😊
🤍🙏
Most of the home for sell in my area are from flipping they bought in2022 @650k now listing for only$1.3 million dollars
Lol 😂
Where?
That’s me in the movie! 🤭Thanks for sharing my FRED chart capture. I’m really excited to see how it looks this month when it updates for Q3. I can’t imagine Q3/Q4 being better than Q1/Q2 so that cliff is going to get bigger I bet.
Really appreciate you sharing that for this video!
🙌👏👊
Almost the entire video is misinformation. He is presenting the new construction chart and stating that it represents existing homes as well. Look up "FRED Median Sales Price of Existing Homes" and you get a totally different story. And the reason the median sales price is going down for NEW CONSTRUCTION is because they are building smaller and using cheaper materials. It's shrinkflation. You can verify this by reading the quarterly reports for the publicly traded homebuilders.
house across the street sold in 3 days sold for $120,000 house 2 streets over priced at $195,000, still on the market for 2 months. houses in this neighborhood sold for between $30,000 and 40,000 in the 80's most are 2 bed 1 bath
Love Canal?
no SW Florida@@sierrasky2491
these greedy home prices need to come down more ;0
Michael, can you talk more on the topic of Miami housing, townhouse, apartments and the Market that each are attracting? Thank you
Great video! Logic is sometimes a bitter pill. I am sitting on the sidelines until next spring for another home. Way more downside risk than up.
8:28 that dude's golf swing 😂
Evictions in apartments are happe ing. I knew people who got kicked out last week. So thats a start. No more extensions or forgiveness ro those that dontpay their bills.
The market is already slowing down in my area partially due to the increased rates, but also because the market was completely overvalued for the avg wages. Been seeing a huge swing just today of property that would go for upwards of 500k to lower 600k just a couple of months ago enter the market at 450-499k which is a big step in the right direction. I think the sellers are finally realizing the party is over to list a house 100k above the real value in the market and having it sit without a contract for 6 months, even if redfin's data still claims this town is 'highly competitive'.
I'm planning to leave this state soon, but it really did pay off to wait on the sidelines with a purpose because the deals are going to start flowing in no matter what happens now.
State?
Housing declines during fall and winter months,they will come back spring summer
@@sierrasky2491 California
@@curtphillipps7830 I've been following the market in my area since around 2019, and seasonality is a part of it, but I've never seen a price decline that steep percentage wise here.
You also have to hope your values don't drop significantly meaning your house won't appraise. If you want to do that, make extra principal payments if you can swing it. Even $500/ month on $400k mortgage over 5 years could know $60 to $70k off your mortgage, then you could have the equity to refi.
@-Michael-Bordenaro-TXT_ME- thx man
We're like minded. Keep up the good work telling the truth!! It's the only way for regular folks to have a chance. Happy travels
Or don't buy an overpriced $400K house to begin with. Just a thought...
Even better. Rent. The builders are in big trouble. Anyone who can casually drop a $600k house $100k, has much more room in the deal to get to break even. All that crap about their costs going up is by. If you could look at there real receipts & not the banks ones they make for the government you be surprised. Remember if you were a $600k buyer 2 years ago, now your a $300k buyer. Hang on to your hat & wait. It'll be worth it. Good luck
Average sales price tells you that sales is down , not the prices are down. for example there could be more 1 bedroom condos being sold because buyers are just poor who are not able to afford a 4 bedroom single family home. Again bad example and metric used shows how some intelligent folks dont understand complete picture.
I know what you’re trying to say, but all we have are these charts to look at
@@MichaelBordenaro Almost the entire video is misinformation. He is presenting the new construction chart and stating that it represents existing homes as well. Look up "FRED Median Sales Price of Existing Homes" and you get a totally different story. And the reason the median sales price is going down for NEW CONSTRUCTION is because they are building smaller and using cheaper materials. It's shrinkflation. You can verify this by reading the quarterly reports for the publicly traded homebuilders.
Thank you for your videos! 👍
You’re welcome!
The people that are buying can afford to buy. the rest are dreaming to buy. All the new apartments are being constructed for them.
Pack em and stack em.
😢
Personally I don't think the goverment should have anything at all to do with flood ins. All these people building houses on the water where they should have never been built. If you can afford a waterfront house or something 2 blocks off the water then you should be able to afford the Ins! The tax payers don't need to subsidize low lying areas!
Michael, I'm going waaaayyyy out on a limb here : but I think REOs, short sales, etc, etc, etc...are going to get the inventory exploding, and buyers coming back iin droves. No more buyers on their knees begging for their offer to get accepted. They won't have to offer $40K over ask, their left kidney, and their first born child.
No, Michael. Private investment will buy up most of that on the cheap. Won't even see the market.
Anything is possible at this point
I think this economical turmoil will stay for longer, like till early 30's. There are many moving parts involved and it takes time to undo this knot. There are REIT's, moms and paps that buy second or third home, 401k and pension funds tied to Real Estate and mortgage-backed securities and so on. Younger or singles population can't afford the houses, that's given. It will also take significant amount of time before immigrants will be able to buy a house. However it's going to take some time for the market to lose momentum and realize that there's no one to sell houses at these prices to.
Love your content and updates yet now your are in the highest end of the real-estate market which is ugly yet not completely representative of the masses that aren't in high end of California.
I’m just here for the weather not the real estate
'What's going to get people into homes' lower prices. Not incentives, plain and simple price slashing.
The local governments should be doing their part by making it easier and cheaper to build
I see price reductions like crazy in metro Atlanta. Almost every Zillow listing has a price reduction 👍🏻
Did you see this one Michael? Relevant what you talked about going on in Florida but here it is in Cali also: "Millennium Tower residents billed $6.8 million for fix overruns "
ALL a reflection (distorted mirror) of our fiat currency. Three bedroom, two bath home for a million? That is how little our "money" is worth.
Always been a commission only sales man and that is how I kept up with crazy prices, make more money.
I dont know which area is having so called housing price crash because it certainly isnt happening in my area in north jersey. Its a constant incline that seem to wont quit.
No area is.
Oh wait, Austin boise Phoenix.
🙄 These guys are dolts.
The nice neighborhoods where I'm at are not moving at all. The junk homes are still flying off the shelves.
Michael,
It's starting. Condos in San Fran are "name your price" from developers. It's exploding
Your real views and honesty are greatly appreciated. There is a narrative out there and its fooling people.
Almost the entire video is misinformation. He is presenting the new construction chart and stating that it represents existing homes as well. Look up "FRED Median Sales Price of Existing Homes" and you get a totally different story. And the reason the median sales price is going down for NEW CONSTRUCTION is because they are building smaller and using cheaper materials. It's shrinkflation. You can verify this by reading the quarterly reports for the publicly traded homebuilders.
Yep! ... is a - surgical housing crash ; they are moving people around and placing them in areas were more population and money is needed .
Large populations states don't mind losing a few millions residents to small populations states .
Market Makers are throwing money around like crazy . I get offers every week for my orlando home .
Definitely 1 to 2 million California's being promoted to move to less populated areas to push up prices
Will be visiting Orlando in February. Hope the weather is decent.
@@DIVISIONINCISION
In advance ... Welcome to Orlando ! ... weather should be in mid 80 by February , the Brightline train is officially open , it takes you from Miami to Orlando and many cities in between .
Is Halloween season in Orlando now , we are getting slam with tourist from everywhere , many Halloween shows . Lots of misfits running around in scooters .
Im building an arbnb on my massive backyard , is close to major parks . I will share a link when is done .
I appreciate that you mentioned the buy down options being presented to buyers. As that rate adjusts each year, there is a likelihood that people won't be able to afford the new payment. I think many people are aware of that, but what they may not have considered is what you said about home values in a few years where there may not be enough equity to allow someone to refinance. That happened to us back in 2008. We had to short sale our home because we couldn't afford the payment anymore. We were also unable to refinance because our home value had dropped so much. And, the lender refused to give us a modification. This time around, we are waiting for the price/ rate combo that we can afford on a fixed rate mortgage. Also have saved up enough for 20% down so as to avoid PMI. We will be ready when the right opportunity presents itself. Thank you for sharing the honest state of the market.
Great channel, Michael. I like it a lot, as a matter of fact, I love it!!! In terms of the USA Real Estate Market, I think the housing market is going to CRASH even more than 20% in the next 2 years; I don't know the exact percentage, but is going to be BIG; you'll be amazed, and highly surprised.
You won't understand the economy. Take some finance classes. You will be a better investor when you have the knowledge to reach your own decisions. For context.... I am a self made multi millionaire. Made my money from real estate and other investments.
Even if it goes down 20%, it would be as much as it was pre pandemic prices. Sadly, no a crash.
Thank you very much Leo!
If you look at that chart simply as a chart…..the next support level is the peak before the 08 crash.
We lived in East San Rafael for 6 years, but sold in May 2022. Nice weather, but glad we're not there anymore.
Will rentals ever come down and how much
Rentals have been coming down for the past few months, although we’re talking tenths of percentage points, but nonetheless coming down
Rents will be going up because of our 8,000,000 migrants and people remaining on the sidelines due to high rates.
Based on that chart and the trajectory rise during COVID and before, i believe homes will go down a lot more. At this point, the cost of insurance and increased peoperty taxes, etc., is another big reason that the base prices will come way down. Looking at homes this morning along the Front Range of Colo, the price drops and days on market are increasing, quite a bit. The homebuilders are just now dropping prices, and have homes sitting there waiting to be sold. It's still a seller's market, but it's starting to turn in earnest.
❤Michael Good honest RE reporting . I follow you-. Always learn something new every week. In 2019 I forcasted a -70% crash in RE 2025 along with a 50% crash in economy. I'm77. Vancouver BC Engineer, Cert. Realtor. I've been following recessions for 50 years. I sold everything this year plus bought and rennovated a small, run-down home that is now for sale. Going to rent for a few years. Everything is reinvessted. I'm preping for the biggest bubble-burst ever in 2025. I will reinvest in affordable rental housinfg for seniors. Can't rely on pensions any more. I plan to move my operations to Calgary AB. My kids and grandkids call me Pop* Would love to talk to you Michael. rsvp
There was / is just waaaaaaayyyyy too much leverage in the system. We gotta unravel it.
Beautiful street with beautifully clean pavements, kudos.
I work "hybrid." I live local and the crime is ridiculous. My boss said I can swipe in and get home as long as the higher ups are not upset since I get my work done. Most of the people I work with will commute in for their days and cut it short when they can and finish remote. Packing their lunches too. CME is largely done. I am waiting for prices to go down then I can consider selling my house, starting my own business with the lower prices.
Same lies they used in 06-08 you can refi your arm loan…not if you have no equity !
That’s right!
It won’t be a recession, depression or housing crisis like any of old. The pending major crash will be due to multiple inflation types: demand-pull, cost-pull, creeping, galloping and hyperinflation.
The only thing that would get me into the market is for the average home to go back to 2019 prices. I would buy a home at 2019 pricing but not for anything more than 2019 pricing and valuations.
Well then welcome to Forever Renting, sir. Your landlord thanks you. 😊
At least here, Denver area, only the best homes sell (best in some way, price, location, condition etc….) everything else sits, but prices are still going sideways, not crashing at all.
I am still not convinced we will see a huge national crash like 2008. We aren’t anywhere close to that yet.
People like Michael, the crash bros, have been screaming crash for three years now and will probably do it for another three years.
It is looking more and more like we will experience the same outcome of the late 70s/early 80s inflation era.
Transactions getting crushed, prices go sideways, after some years, rates come down, incomes have caught up some, and back to 3-4% normal appreciation.