ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ก.ย. 2024
- MIT Media Lab founder Nicholas Negroponte takes you on a journey through the last 30 years of tech. The consummate predictor highlights interfaces and innovations he foresaw in the 1970s and 1980s that were scoffed at then but are ubiquitous today. And he leaves you with one last (absurd? brilliant?) prediction for the coming 30 years.
TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes (or less). Look for talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and much more.
Find closed captions and translated subtitles in many languages at www.ted.com/tra...
Follow TED news on Twitter: / tednews
Like TED on Facebook: / ted
Subscribe to our channel: / tedtalksdirector
Now I'm afraid to call that prediction stupid.
What he said about the "internet of things" is brilliant, it perfectly expresses my biggest frustration with CS right now (as a student) everything going to one device because mobile is trendy, even when it makes things more inconvenient.
Given the accuracy of Negroponte's past predictions, we have to assume that he might be right... Seymour Papert: "You can’t think about thinking without thinking about thinking about something." That one will definitely take some unpacking.
So... Negroponte at age 99:
Oh! I know kung fu!
;-D
What is flowerbox thoery 17:14?
I wish he could have spent more time talking about his predictions for the future and those pills...
Wow what a great retrospective of the history of the convergence of TV-Multimedia-Computing. Nicholas got it right!
No one seems to mention that yet, but - what if our poor communication/learning capabilities are very specifically evolved adaptation? (self-defensive or else)
Theoretically if I can just copy my thoughts/memes to other people's minds that would probably make other people working for my best interest and/or against their own (generic fitness too) nearly immediately. It would probably make sense to evolve some immune reactions to that.
I would be happy to have instant knowledge of algebra or something I'm equally horrible at, but I think I will always want to see written words. I can't imagine not being able to soak up the flow of something like Faulkner's descriptions..... to immediately re-read it and let it swirl around the brain and tongue. It would be a shame for many people not to even consider this wonder of reading because taking a pill is quicker.
You swirl words around your tongue?... oh wait now that I typed that I get it... I probably should have just deleted it and started over... oh well, too late now, I've gone too far...
When this technology is adopted into wide use, you'll be able to take a pill that will give you nearly the same experience as reading. You will be able to get instant recall pills for thing's that are difficult to put into words, math concepts ect, but you'll also be able to get entertainment pills of almost any kind.
Though it may have an initial spike of popularity, I think this will be a niche market. I just don't see people wanting single use anything in the future.
wow the pill prediction is so hard to imagine , my counter prediction would be watching a video while under a stimulant and grasp the whole thing 100%
Bless you sir. I have always had great respect for you. Being Digital was monumental
This pills will come in flavors?
i hope bacon will be an option
..but then you all of a sudden you know everything about Kevin Bacon...
breaneainn Realy? Same goes with Apple flavor?
footageisland yeah but who is Kevin Apple?
Daniel Aparicio
Just Apple...
Nicholas Negroponte talks about the exciting future with lots of technological possibilities. Most of his predictions came true in the last 30 years. So, we hope the same thing will happen in the future. Many of his predictions you can find in the Alvin Toffler's famous book "Future Shock."
I'm surprised he didn't mention this, but the main reason touch didn't take off until recently is because historically its usage context was large, fixed screens. In that case, 1) the optimal viewing distance is often in contention with the optimal touch distance and 2) reaching out and lifting your arm to provide input is OK for short interaction sessions (eg, a kiosk or ATM) but gets uncomfortable after a few minutes of use. That's why keyboards and mice are still around. Mobile is what finally precipitated the popularity of touch interfaces.
Something must be wrong with the timecode of this video. Could of sworn it was 2 minutes long and not 20... Great video!
That's fascinating - ingesting information! In a way, this somewhat already occurs within cultures that utilize psychedelic plants. They use those substances to broaden their understanding and awareness in general and/or about a particular situation as a kind of biological navigating tool amongst the chaos of information we encounter in every passing moment.
If you ever want to connect and talk about this I'd be down even though it's 7 years later lol
The prediction he made at the end totally caught me off guard. I'm incredibly curious now as to why he, who has consistently predicted our current reality, believes that such technology is possible and probable. Very exciting! Maybe I'll come back to this post in ~30 years and look at how naive I was.
TED! Why u have so good talks?
Interesting talk. The part with the children and the tablets is great, seeing children get educated and enjoying to be educated is wonderful.
Man can you imagine if everyone has the same level of knowledge and understanding? We'd probably be building machines that can warp through space in a couple years.
That's gonna happen soon, mate. Think about it: from that point onwards, every single bit of information produced by humanity will be stored and made accessible to anyone.
David Chen You don't need that much knowledge, you just need to open your mind.
Depends on the level of education. If all people know how repair a socket, we will never reach another galaxy.
If all people in a world understand Quantum physics, maybe we will.
This guy is the type of guy that Lawrence Krauss is talking about when he says the 'problem with modern science (literacy), is due to a lack of exciting modern science speakers.' 13 minutes in and i'm bored to tears.
Great talk, Nicholas epitomises TED in many ways.
My favorite Ted Talk to date
Hahaha, nice timing right after the 'now-ist talk'. :P (this isn't criticism, but I find it somewhat amusing) And wow.... that prediction... feels like I'm studying for nothing now, even though that's not true and I know it! Can't wait for that prediction to come true! :D
I'm glad i'm born in 1991, right on time to see the internet and computers really becoming interesting. Before that it looks just lame to me.
And i'm saying this and my kid will looks at my old useless stuff i got right now and wouldn't figure out how i enjoyed myself with that.....meh....
The prediction nicholas made at the end is also very interesting...
Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon ingest information by swallowing a pill. Uh, sure.
- Daniel Valllecillo, TH-cam 2014
At 12:00 on the magazine there's a line in Hungarian : "Kapcsolódjon Be!" What's up with that?
Prediction: He will eat his words.
He will eat this world*
Me encanta el vídeo!!
Maybe not ingesting, but using a device like Neuralink
WHAT KIND OF KOOL AID DOES MR.Nicholas Negroponte USE....
AmazingZing ...This is what I want - the wildest ideas in action and wildest ideas to ponder!!
Ingesting information...... It sounds ridiculous but he has made those types of predictions before and they seem to come true so I guess...... Would that mean no school though?
Jean-Luc Maske-Stockdale yeah that sounds so Matrix🤔. Wonder what the world would be like if it happens and no school ! I really hope we won’t be fighting AI :(
It is amazing to see that the future became so much better than just flying cars. The future is...now.
I dont think the pill is possible given any level of technology.
When you learn something you convert it into your own format and compression, the memory is unique to you. Thats why some people are easier to understand, as they have similar thought processes.
The device would need a deep understanding of the specific person, and by that level of tech we would be so posthuman we would be thinking in parallel anyways.
I really wish he spent more time talking about the future
Looking at AI developing now, Ingesting information doesn’t seem too crazy. We’d have to upgrade ourselves in some way once there are machines taking over technical and systematic jobs that need a formal education (engineering, accounting, aircraft engineering, surgery) which recently have already displayed AI competency.
He may have planted the Idea/thought. And someone may do it. Wow can’t imagine the world without school. (Including kindergarten) that’s where I learnt social skills and had fun making friends.. doing weird arts and crafts.. just laptops and screens for everyone?
The future scares me. 🥴
What is the music in the background for the beginning clip?
Cool expectation,
Skip to 18:40.
DESDE 1965 HASTA 2014 LA TECNOLOIA A AVANZADO A PASOS AGIGANTADOS Y TIENE PARA DAR MUCHO MAS LLEGAR HASTA EL 2030 VERE EN MSI ARCHIVOS A TED Y SU GRAN EQUIPO!!!!!!!
レポート勢
Thought provoking !
Simply great.
Well that would be cool to ingest info, but I also thought we would have flying cars by the year 2000.
Not all predictions of the future come as fast as scientists predict... or at all for that matter.
Ingesting info... would the FDA test it on animals first... PLANET OF THE APES
But, we have flying cars. There have been a lot of working prototypes in the last years (maybe they're a bit noisy, but that's about it): we have achieved it. Fact is, humans can barely drive cars in 2-dimensional roads, let alone adding an additional dimension: we'd probably need an automated driving system (as it's already happen for normal cars, anyway), and, even with that, there would not be real advantage in using them. It is very different with these hypotetical pills though. Their uselfulness would be enourmous.
We do have flying cars, they’re called helicopters or small planes. And if you look at drones, many companies are making single and dual seat passenger drones. Furthermore, Nicholas never said anything about flying cars… Go back and watch his 1984 TEDTalk, it will give you goosebumps… He literally describes everything we are using today and exactly how we use it.
You can think about thinking without thinking about thinking about something unless you've thought about thinking about something before.
the singularity is near
One tablet per child
too many knowledge at once -.- I will I know the future, the future ME
N.B. Learning unaided 15:25
レポートだるすぎやろ
downvoting for misleading title
The flaw here, is that he's made a prediction without an adequate understanding of biology or neurochemistry. Yes, he has made some accurate predictions, but they're all to do with computer technology. Therefor, one should not take this seriously, it's quite disappointing that he would make this claim instead of focusing on his strength of providing calculated insight into the future of computer technology.
The closest version of his prediction would be a new nootropic drug which enables rapid learning and retention of knowledge, without adverse side effects. However, one would still have to exert the mental effort needed to acquire new knowledge.
Incredible
14:56 I'm not sure if non-Australians will understand the message of this image.
Hint: Australia is a first world country, so why is there an Australian child in this picture? Why indeed. :(
Thank you for the nice video. I am skeptical of the learning pill. The cranium is finite, especially when a brain is entered into the equation. Residential memory is not open to updating. Consider the information you access each year from Google. Now swallow a pill for each subject. Imagine the number of pills it would take to fill a cranium.
he's a prophet.
I believe it is possible to create pills to make increase our mental abilities but going as far as changing the knowledge we have directly through a pill? Hopefully I will live long enough to see whether this actually happens or not
But surely the journey by which we gain information is as important as the information we gain? Would be cool to swallow a pill though and go "I know kung fu!" :P
Close, he spoke for 17:46.
And the history repeats itself.
It's true, algorithmic-controlled hedge funds are incredibly powerful computing mechanisms that use complex algorithms to to take past market trends and economy statistics (past 20 or 30 years) and create possible scenarios of progressively linear trends in the future, all at speeds that humans simply cannot fathom. Bankers use these algorithms to create hedges on financial investments within the market, so that as long as their investment is at least 55% accurate, they will always return a profit. That leaves 45% hedge of acceptable failure. The past is crucial in understanding the future, after all, the people who literally control the planet understand this quite well ;)
This guys thinks we will, quite literally, digest information in the future. At first, that idea might sound ridiculous but when you consider the predictions MIT Media Lab Founder Nicholas Negroponte has made over the years, it doesn't sound that far fetched!
ceo of treyarch right?
The CEO of Treyarch is called Adam Arnold, yes :)
wow thats awesome
i actually have a question, i had been contemplating buying the juggernog edition of the new black ops 3 and i noticed that its not for the xbox 360 and its only for xbox one and ps4 so I have been trying to save for the juggernog edition and also have so save for the xbox one and thats really hard for a 13 year old kid to save like 600 dollars in 4 months.
If these pills will arise, what is then the point of being alive? I mean, schools will be closed, the only competitions you can make will be sport competitions ( and even that I doubt ). There will be no experts in the world, that means fewer jobs and so on and so forth. A human is born to struggle in life and achieve certain things, but if these would being removed, what else you can do with your time?
knowledge is constantly being acquired if all you do is take in old things which everyone knows then you just like every other loser right now not pursuing knowledge.
"A human is born to struggle in life"
Probably the saddest thing I've heard in a while.
There is always something new to learn and create. Imagine a man from the 1500s ingesting the pill of the world's knowledge until that time. Now imagine a man in the 1800s; now, in the 2000s; now, in the 2200s and so on. Each one of them creates new knowledge that is going to be learned by the next generation. This is how we have been doing it for milleniums but at a much slower pace. Imagine if we can shorten the time that we take for learning. Everybody would be more intelligent in less time and we would exploit the time difference doing practical things instead of learning. But first, let's see if our goverments will allow this knowledge reach every corner of the world. Well, that is another point, imagine all of us knowing a looooot of things and the people that rule the world worried about it. It would be fun for sure. That is a whole new civilization. I want to live there!
Thank you for the enlightened, pleasured and appreciated response on my statement, not comperable to the other egomanic and aggressive answers. I dont really meant with my statement that I am totally against these pills. I'm just afraid of what will happen if they really become present and wanted to show another perspective, because every step forward has always a positive and a negative side. What actually will happen we do not really know, but I'm on the one side totally open to new technology and warn on the other side to be always conscious about our handling with it.
King People use to think shallowly and just attack someone else's comment. If we had that pill right now and everybody commenting this post had ingested the pill already, this would be an awesome deep philosophical conversation.
About your point: Yes, it is a double-edged sword the consecuences of that pill. Humans would use it for countless objectives, and not always caring for others. I do not know which world would better, absolutely everything would be astonishingly different.
The pill can exist maybe much before, maybe. Would be great because i don't want to expect to have 50 years old lol. Wow the now and the future are marvelous.
That is genius!
His prediction sounds very far fetched, but I guess all of them sounded so at the time he made them, yet many came true.
Its amazing to think how people think. I just wish his prediction substitution for education does not come true!
+Balkanyogurt Man Teachers might be out of the job perhaps? With the movement towards more easily accessible technology it is my guess that the world will be looking at a job crisis.
+Balkanyogurt Indeed, I have to agree. This increasing socialist movement in America is one of the largest threats to prosperity. If it continues I believe it will inevitably lead to our own self destruction...
+Balkanyogurt Man After watching the video you provided, I believe I've gotten a better grasp on what you hope society will eventually become. However it still poses many issues that humanity will have to try and overcome. My belief of what will happen to society can be found in this video:
watch?v=cXQrbxD9_Ng
Despite me being in disagreement with some of the speakers solutions, I still think that the elimination of jobs via bots might be an issue that we face. Perhaps I'm to closed minded to see an economy/civilization succeed without Capitalism providing income for individuals at its forefront.
Good discussion my friend! :)
ima ingest me some kung-fu....ima be neo.
Five quotes he got right out of how many things he said over the last 30 years? This is my mother's favorite game: I said that. The trouble is that he very likely said everything else. He that says everything says nothing. What people need are basic skills and an infrastructure. They need clean food, clean water, and clean streets and clean homes. Make a pill for that, unless of course you prefer a suppository.
Well he definitely takes pride in his job..
Impoverished people on the internet always end up being hackers.
The kids ended up eating the computers
not sure about pills; but a brain interface might be what is coming.
Please be right!(Anyone remember the robot from Jimmy Neutron and the book gum?!)
1965 cad XD just imagine it
"Spend war money on connecting the rural poor to the internet."
There, I saved you 20 minutes.
?????????????????????????
THERE'S WAY MORE THAT JUST THAT!
I think we will have these pills instead of primary school or high school maybe, but that you will choose to go into further education and learn about what you want.
Pero... cómo estará el cerebro de la gente para ese entonces? Habrá muchos alérgicos al conocimiento y no podrán adquirirlo. ¿Quien recuerda Cosmos 1999?.
...this guy doesn't strike me as visionary at all...
Perhaps I'm missing out on some social context, but:
A) His suggestion was a really dumb pitch. I'm not against learning, or empowering people, but it was coolly calculated to pull at heart strings.
B) His 'prediction' was already predicted - by others.
C) A lot of his other predictions still haven't really come to pass - yes, they might have happened, but in the same way a lot of the other inventions he's shown have happened, and 'passed on'.
good prognoses.he sees the future nice adn awesome :D
Wow.
nano books >
課題に出すくせに日本語訳無いってマ??
Shaping dreams and direct download to brain should much better versus blood. This like Ghost in the Shell TV series.
My only issue is he talks about the future and tech development as something that is constant but it its just a lot of large quick jumps and then plateaus. The thing that is constant and sounds more like whats hes talking about it is consumer adoption of technology. However I fear our rate of adoption has started to catch up with our technological developments. Think yourself. Is the Iphone 5 really that different than the first Iphone? No. No it is not.
I don't think that's entirely interpretation. Technology is very progressive while adoption occurs when the combination of "good enough" technologies converge you hit a plateau. The first iPhone came out in 2008, that's a relatively short time, your also only focusing on one company, while it hasn't reached that "good enough" convergence, smart watches are just about there and eye wear is only a few years behind. Smart phones existed a decade before they took off.
I don't see smart watches as something new. We have nearly mastered developing ICs with silicon and metals. The tech in computers hasn't changed it has just become more efficient. "Smart phones existed a decade before they took off." Thats my point. Nothing has changed on the technological side for over a decade. The tech to be able to download newspapers and books over the internet existed in 1995 but it simply wasn't a need or interest of the population because they were still dealing with new things like answering machines, and digital TV.
Graham Fraser yes the ability to download books existed, but no one wants to read a book on a giant boxy monitor, we needed tablets and e-readers for it to take off. The innovation of truly game changing devices is pretty rare, but the technology behind the scenes is flying almost faster than anyone can keep up. I've talked to PhDs that come back from conferences depressed cause they feel like their whole field changed in the few months they were working on one tiny thing. (not realizing it took a thousand people moving it tiny amounts) genetics is moving at an even faster rate (it seems to my perception).
7:28
Those opium crops sure are expensive.
démosle el beneficio de la duda...
collective subconscious?
I'll be honest. Touch screens ... I bought that when I was a kid, that seemed likely. There were no anatomical inconsistencies. But swallowing pills ... alright, things like activating devices could be done like that, but here's the thing - that is a purely lucrative idea. You could just as well invent a ring that you wear that does the same job.
Eating a pill every time means that you need to buy that many pills.
Now, if you could actually get info through pills, and that would mean tempering with proteins in your brain, then sure. Pills would be worth it. But for lesser reasons?
I just want to see a model of a pill created first, before I can even take this idea seriously.
Some touch screens use whats called Quantum Tunneling which was only understood in the past decade and a half. So even if you believe it the Milestones in tech are still required.
The bases for these so called pills already exist: Neurology and Nanotechnology. Those two have developed a lot, and just might be a able to produce machine to brain information transfer devices, which could come in the form of pills.
Take it easy guys! The idea is not that wild. But about the 30 years I can not judge. Let's dream.
***** Its true that in many senses biology is still at the nursery, but truth be told biology, that is to say todays biology, really begins only in the 19th century. Evolution, cells, modern theory's and all of that.
Humanity has cured a lot of diseases, many of them utterly eradicated from the face of the earth. I agree that 30 years does sound exaggerated, but who knows? Maybe his predictions are not as far fetched as we think them to be. We will have to wait and see.
I will be selling English learning Tictac and making serious money.
THE EDUCATION TRADICIONAL IS NOT EDUCATION, THE EDUCATION TRUE IS GIVE A CHILDRENS NEWS TECHNOLOGY APPRENTICESHIP OF SCIENCE, ART, HISTORY, GEOGRAPHY, MATEMATICAS MODERS, THE WORLD IS CHANGE I LOVE YOU TO ALL CHILDRENS IN THE WORLD!!!!!!
7:00
someone tell me what is your nanotechnology?
THE MANS TODAY IS A TEACH, IS A TRAINER,,CONNECTING THE LAST BILLION IN THE CHILDREN IN THE WORLD!!!!!
Anybody like, Silicon Valley?
Excuse my language, but technology is fucking scary.
I enjoy my analogue inputs, thank you very much. If that makes me an uncultured slob then so be it.
Technology is dumbing down the current generations for the most part....