I’m a long time viewer. I’ve been focusing on my business, and currently in the middle of expanding my business (moved to a bigger location, diversifying). I haven’t been able to do the research to be up-to-date on the market & economy. Out of all the other TH-camrs, I enjoy your content the most. You provide a great balance on perspectives, and you put out relevant information at a great pace. When I do this myself, I intake a lot of information from lots of sources, find patterns & connect dots. You’re the only person I’ve found to do this while remaining grounded in reality. Thank you for the work you put in to this, I hope to one day be half as great as you!
There is a bit more AI maturation to happen, but only on the 1%. After that will come the quantum boom. Follow the software engineers suffering to get proficient in AI and you'll see clearly what's next. Also, in between both there'll be graphics, machine vision, and robotics. But those will take more time than quantum since we are talking about "hype". Robotics will only get hype when it becomes crazy good at doing too many simple tasks. This is why I say that there is no harder career than being a software engineer/computer scientist. Want to be able to keep your job? Update your skills every 3-4 years. Want to actually not even be considered on the list of those who are getting fired? Then you reskill before-hype. And how do you know what will be hype? You don't. You know 10 things are coming so you learn them all and when one hits the floor, you go profound on it. Like, I'm sorry, but I know civil engineers, doctors, actuaries, lawyers... studying CS might not be as difficult WHILE in college. But staying relevant in the career? Nuts. Some people choose CS thinking that's it, which is why all SWEs kinda burn out in their early 30s, sometimes late 20s. It's insane.
Japan's export numbers, especially, and import numbers too, missed huge recently. And almost nobody paid the numbers any attention. (That said, there is so much liquidity being pumped in that everything just gets squeezed higher now regardless of numbers. That is, if numbers mattered then S&P 500 Cape/Shiller PER at almost 40 and Market Cap to GDP at an 88 year high would matter).
@@bfyrth Governments, such as both the US and Japanese governments, obviously only care about the short term, and are sold on the MMT idea. But what they don't realize is MMT assumes responsible spending. I doubt that their practices end well for anyone but the rich, who simply walk away, leaving everyone else, and the real economy with the bill and holding the bag. Also leaving the real economy to implode. The government motto seems to be to endlessly keep the boom part of the cycle going, not realizing that the bust part is a normal part of the cycle, and that if you dont let the cycle play out normally, distorting everything, then at some point, all of the busts you tried to delete hit you all at once and with a vengeance.
You've got to love the irony of getting a Mint Mobile commercial on your video right after you talked about cell service providers, knowing that Ryan Reynolds blocked you on X. 😂
Ummmm no... do you watch Bravo or Van meter? Those dudes are way more bearish... Hell Van Meter has been calling for a crash for the last 2 1/2 years. Still waiting... but I do think we are getting closer.
Recession does not equal stocks go down. Deleveraging equals stocks go down. I have been saying this for months. The media and TH-cam has it confused. The goal is finding future stock movement.
I was told that I would be laid off but what they did was froze hiring and saved them for us and just recruited us to different positions or shifts I’m a CNA! Thanks Kevin
Ai and Tech are eating everyone lunch. They are also the killers of jobs. AT some point no more jobs... no more money the whole system collapses in on itself. How far away is that? If I was to guess I would say 10 to 15 years.
The way you know Ai is working. Jobs go down. (And you have a recession) The was you know AI is failing. AI revenue from services goes down. (And you have a recession)
Do you think one reason exports are down is that companies are slowing down build outs until they can secure energy? USA has the tech but no energy infrastructure. China has the energy infrastructure but not the tech. Look at Microsoft’s recent announcement concerning nuclear energy.
Jenson created this along time ago. Now others are scrambling to catch up. Don’t who think he already knows the next plan? Watch and see what NVDA does in the coming years while people speculate AI. He knows what it’s going to do and how! He pretty much created AI
Don’t go bearish yet, AI isn’t slowing down. We’re switching to H200’s and soon Blackwell chips as AI pivots to inference over training. Also most AI data centers are still gathering new investors so there will be pauses while money exchanges hands to continue expansions.
@SuperCatbert 100% as with all technologies. Its part of the cycle. After the bubble pops, M&A, consolidations and a better view of the winners and losers. In terms of compute there will be a mix from big to small LLMs to serve enterprise cloud and mobile devices.
@@c_macA lot of spaces still don't use computers. Think anyplace that has and old cash register or cash business. Plus, some call centers are still just phones. Many sectors also only require limited computers at their place.
The cost of energy to power data center compute over its lifespan, running at full tilt 24/7, typically exceeds the cost of the hardware. If Blackwell is significantly more efficient, it can help control high operating costs, and/or allow for more compute to fit into a power constrained data center. More memory can also mean the difference between being able to fit a cutting edge model, or not. Blackwell was supposed to be near, if not for some issues related to unreliable bonding of a larger chip, onto to the substrate/carrier that routes the signals to larger connections in the board. Not an issue with next gen glass substrates, but hopefully NVidia can make existing organic materials work with this gen, without the connections to the chip becoming unbonded over time, due to differing rates of thermal expansion vs the substrate.
Thanks for being real here and not just saying stuff to please the mass. So so many people still believe the economy is fine, especially those that own homes and businesses
AT some point Ai and Tech eat all the jobs. Then who is going to be able to afford anything? the Middle aged man knows its just a matter of time before Ai gets his job... so what does he do. He invests in the very thing that is going to do that... why? He has no alternative. Better to lose your job and be rich than lose your job and be poor. This has caused one of the greatest bubbles in all of history. I don't think it ends well.
Any chance those 785K Government workers were somehow related to the pull-forward due to the pending dockworkers strike? Sounds crazy, but could the Feds or State governments have been lining up scabs to keep things moving? Any other government workers related to Port unloading + shipping that could have been beefed-up to compensate? Anything in government employment related to the upcoming hurricane season?
I don’t love the new mic. It sounds ok, but you are clearly paying way more attention to it throughout your videos , even your posture is different and more downward. Plus you have hit the mic a few times making a low sound. I think you should go back to above mounted mic
The "AI-related products" also include QCOM, AMD, and Intel PCs powered by the new generation of CPUs. I think the AI PC is not selling well, and most growth is still in Data center-related components. Also, Taiwan is not China or the only supply chain. We must look at China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other countries. Like Apple's Tim Cook used to say, the supply chain is complex and you can't judge from just one number from Taiwan.
that amazon story was BS, they came out and said they switched it to blackwell as they had planned and was previously announced. This is like the 5th time you mentioned this bs story.
I'm going in hard on Intel for a multi year play. Cleared a nice 5% today and expect that to be just the beginning with bumps along the way. There is no way their stock will stay beat down like they are currently.
Tricky to do market analysis during an election year. Most data is inaccurate but its definitely not to be trusted during elections. Good work for doing your best during the worst time for analysis.
They produce nothing. Their income is paid through taxation of producing jobs. They don't produce income. They take from the income being produced. So they don't add to GDP.
Understand what you are coming from, but with the US data advocating soft-landing and the fed doing everything to avoid a next correction, it is hard for the market to come down.
That’s not exactly what he said. He said that government workers are proping the job reports, meaning that without taking those into account, recent job reports would clearly show the weakness in the economy (via unemployement % raising more)
Kevin i love your content and you are a great businessman. BUT why i the "h, e double hockeystick" dont you have a gear list with affiliate links so people can figure out what you use for recording video and audio and so on, and buy the gear if they like the look or sound of Your videos? You miss a lot of money here. :D
Might just be my algo.. but I feel like your vids arent showing up on my feed anymore, watch your stuff daily and have to search you up to see a vid. Id usually see a vid like this on my feed right away. weird.
It doesn't matter. If Trump loses AGAIN... there is going to be riots in the street. It will start in a Red state not a blue state. And that is very sad.
Kevin, why would Foxconn be in the process of building the world's largest factory to manufacture NVIDIA's latest GPU if the "AI bubble" is near bursting? Why would an established, tech savvy company build an entire factory without assessing demand?
Hi Kevin , why aren`t you doing a special video about Trump and Punit talks latest news ? If it was Biden or Kamala you would have already 2 videos.. !
Kevin is like " its good no its bad its good its bad its bad ok not as bad its good its great nevermind its bad....my coupon code"
@dr.z3426 Hahaha, so true! He switches his opinion more often than a newborn needs a diaper change!
Kevin is the kind of guy that stubs his toe and say, "ouchieeeeee"
“Oopsie doopsie!”
poopie doopie
Kevin the kinda guy to listen to KSIs new song and loudly exclaim ”this is a bop!🗣️🗣️”
He has missed every dip buying opportunity for last 6 months. And his hedges have also done TERRIBLE.. so yea, “poopie doopie” 😂
Ouchie wowchie!
The last thing that happens before a recession is an increase in government jobs and a decrease in private sector jobs.
I’m a long time viewer. I’ve been focusing on my business, and currently in the middle of expanding my business (moved to a bigger location, diversifying). I haven’t been able to do the research to be up-to-date on the market & economy.
Out of all the other TH-camrs, I enjoy your content the most. You provide a great balance on perspectives, and you put out relevant information at a great pace.
When I do this myself, I intake a lot of information from lots of sources, find patterns & connect dots. You’re the only person I’ve found to do this while remaining grounded in reality.
Thank you for the work you put in to this, I hope to one day be half as great as you!
Thanks so much!!
Agree.
Past recessions usually take a couple months after the first Fed rate cut to start.
Imagine the FED knew that and they purposely front ran the data
Absolllllutelyyyy
There is a bit more AI maturation to happen, but only on the 1%. After that will come the quantum boom. Follow the software engineers suffering to get proficient in AI and you'll see clearly what's next. Also, in between both there'll be graphics, machine vision, and robotics. But those will take more time than quantum since we are talking about "hype". Robotics will only get hype when it becomes crazy good at doing too many simple tasks.
This is why I say that there is no harder career than being a software engineer/computer scientist. Want to be able to keep your job? Update your skills every 3-4 years. Want to actually not even be considered on the list of those who are getting fired? Then you reskill before-hype. And how do you know what will be hype? You don't. You know 10 things are coming so you learn them all and when one hits the floor, you go profound on it. Like, I'm sorry, but I know civil engineers, doctors, actuaries, lawyers... studying CS might not be as difficult WHILE in college. But staying relevant in the career? Nuts. Some people choose CS thinking that's it, which is why all SWEs kinda burn out in their early 30s, sometimes late 20s. It's insane.
At some point people will realize that AI companies that makes maybe 6B/year cannot support capX of 200Bil/year.
People don’t realise that ai services can have a component of seasonality
Japan's export numbers, especially, and import numbers too, missed huge recently. And almost nobody paid the numbers any attention. (That said, there is so much liquidity being pumped in that everything just gets squeezed higher now regardless of numbers. That is, if numbers mattered then S&P 500 Cape/Shiller PER at almost 40 and Market Cap to GDP at an 88 year high would matter).
Market only listens to bullish news.
good point, well spotted, i swear this is being inflated for a huge crash, probably getting everyones pensions in first
@@bfyrth Governments, such as both the US and Japanese governments, obviously only care about the short term, and are sold on the MMT idea. But what they don't realize is MMT assumes responsible spending. I doubt that their practices end well for anyone but the rich, who simply walk away, leaving everyone else, and the real economy with the bill and holding the bag. Also leaving the real economy to implode. The government motto seems to be to endlessly keep the boom part of the cycle going, not realizing that the bust part is a normal part of the cycle, and that if you dont let the cycle play out normally, distorting everything, then at some point, all of the busts you tried to delete hit you all at once and with a vengeance.
You've got to love the irony of getting a Mint Mobile commercial on your video right after you talked about cell service providers, knowing that Ryan Reynolds blocked you on X. 😂
Do you realize we are getting ripped off with this “recession” stories at least 4 years now.
Since you are realising this now that means it will surely come soon
lmao it's coming like really really soon.
Any call for a recession when the unemployment rate was not trending upwards (however you define that) is void.
We are just going to hyperinflate into nothingness.
Inverse Kevin thank me later
God have mercy on Florida!!!
Kevin the Bearishest TH-camr out there
Ummmm no... do you watch Bravo or Van meter? Those dudes are way more bearish... Hell Van Meter has been calling for a crash for the last 2 1/2 years. Still waiting... but I do think we are getting closer.
I am sure there are LOTS us who's been with you since day one. We know your WORTH and how good you are...thank you Kevin ❤🎉 you rock!
Recession does not equal stocks go down. Deleveraging equals stocks go down. I have been saying this for months. The media and TH-cam has it confused. The goal is finding future stock movement.
I was told that I would be laid off but what they did was froze hiring and saved them for us and just recruited us to different positions or shifts I’m a CNA! Thanks Kevin
Wall Street is bullish on AI. Carry on.
Ai and Tech are eating everyone lunch. They are also the killers of jobs. AT some point no more jobs... no more money the whole system collapses in on itself. How far away is that? If I was to guess I would say 10 to 15 years.
I thank God everyday that i have you as a mentor
Hopefully, that 750,000 newly hired government workers were not all IRS agents.
The way you know Ai is working. Jobs go down.
(And you have a recession)
The was you know AI is failing. AI revenue from services goes down.
(And you have a recession)
Do you think one reason exports are down is that companies are slowing down build outs until they can secure energy? USA has the tech but no energy infrastructure. China has the energy infrastructure but not the tech. Look at Microsoft’s recent announcement concerning nuclear energy.
Possibly!
Nuclear the only way 😊
A.I., never has so much money been invested in a product that no one asked for.
☝️This!☝️
It's ok we love you Kevin!!
My guess on the payroll data, Government showing increase on government jobs.... sounds like fake data.
Jenson created this along time ago. Now others are scrambling to catch up. Don’t who think he already knows the next plan? Watch and see what NVDA does in the coming years while people speculate AI. He knows what it’s going to do and how! He pretty much created AI
Don’t go bearish yet, AI isn’t slowing down. We’re switching to H200’s and soon Blackwell chips as AI pivots to inference over training. Also most AI data centers are still gathering new investors so there will be pauses while money exchanges hands to continue expansions.
AI is a total bubble. everyone is going much smaller LLMs, we will need ALOT less compute.
AI has no impact on consumer spending... that's what's really important when we are facing a recession... not NVDA going green.
who's we
@@rioriggs3568That's right
@SuperCatbert 100% as with all technologies. Its part of the cycle. After the bubble pops, M&A, consolidations and a better view of the winners and losers. In terms of compute there will be a mix from big to small LLMs to serve enterprise cloud and mobile devices.
I still see a collapse on the horizon 📉📉📉
I may have missed a video, does anybody know if Kevin is still calling for a market housing crash (versus select areas)?
I'm never using AI! It will be the death of us.
you already use AI you just don't know it
How'd that work with the "never going to use a computer" crowd? ... Not great
You used ai to get this channel recommended to you.
You use AI to cech what the. Weather will be.
@@jayfrost3025That's not using it. It's using you and not willing. A.i. is a digital rapee.
@@c_macA lot of spaces still don't use computers. Think anyplace that has and old cash register or cash business. Plus, some call centers are still just phones. Many sectors also only require limited computers at their place.
KEVIN PLEASE REMAIN A BEAR !
A semiconductor video and no mention of the quartz mine in North Carolina thats out of commission 🤔
The cost of energy to power data center compute over its lifespan, running at full tilt 24/7, typically exceeds the cost of the hardware. If Blackwell is significantly more efficient, it can help control high operating costs, and/or allow for more compute to fit into a power constrained data center. More memory can also mean the difference between being able to fit a cutting edge model, or not.
Blackwell was supposed to be near, if not for some issues related to unreliable bonding of a larger chip, onto to the substrate/carrier that routes the signals to larger connections in the board. Not an issue with next gen glass substrates, but hopefully NVidia can make existing organic materials work with this gen, without the connections to the chip becoming unbonded over time, due to differing rates of thermal expansion vs the substrate.
Geek squad can transfer your phone data in less than one hour, from latest backup
How many times we have to hear how much appetite there is for Nvidia chips before the bears believe it lol
Kevin still bearish go go go! Buy!
Thanks very much for sharing your analysis and thoughts. We really appreciate your videos.
14:53 It looks like that line is about to launch 🚀
Thanks 🙏
this channel has become just like the 1000 others, calling for recession all the time.
I think the S&P goes to 8000.... keep going long !!!!
Wait till ya see what's coming, end of month.
the biggest rugpull of the year
I really appreciate your information and education ❤
Still nothing on the hurricane, huh?🤔
I watch this channel for fun cuz Kevin is a good show man
But as a trader, I ignore everything he says 😅
thanks for the perspective as always kevin
Thank you Kevin. Invaluable info.
i remember when big data was what the big tech companies said was going to increase profits
I about to completely abandon crypto!
Thanks for being real here and not just saying stuff to please the mass. So so many people still believe the economy is fine, especially those that own homes and businesses
I just do the opposite of that he says so i now adding to nvda
Super annoyed you called out Nashville when in fact it’s Memphis. That’s about all it’s got going for it. Is a big deal.
AI is still stupid… only as good as programmed…. Ask AI to dispatch 3 trucks with 5 deliveries each in a city…let the hilarity ensue…
Appreciate you Kevin! ❤
Great data thanks
AT some point Ai and Tech eat all the jobs. Then who is going to be able to afford anything? the Middle aged man knows its just a matter of time before Ai gets his job... so what does he do. He invests in the very thing that is going to do that... why? He has no alternative. Better to lose your job and be rich than lose your job and be poor. This has caused one of the greatest bubbles in all of history. I don't think it ends well.
Hey Kevin! This is meet Don
Any chance those 785K Government workers were somehow related to the pull-forward due to the pending dockworkers strike?
Sounds crazy, but could the Feds or State governments have been lining up scabs to keep things moving? Any other government workers related to Port unloading + shipping that could have been beefed-up to compensate? Anything in government employment related to the upcoming hurricane season?
I'd appreciate it if you reduce plosives on your mic using either a physical filter or a software plugin, it's very annoying and hard to focus.
I don’t love the new mic. It sounds ok, but you are clearly paying way more attention to it throughout your videos , even your posture is different and more downward. Plus you have hit the mic a few times making a low sound. I think you should go back to above mounted mic
Remarkable content! 😊
The "AI-related products" also include QCOM, AMD, and Intel PCs powered by the new generation of CPUs. I think the AI PC is not selling well, and most growth is still in Data center-related components. Also, Taiwan is not China or the only supply chain. We must look at China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other countries. Like Apple's Tim Cook used to say, the supply chain is complex and you can't judge from just one number from Taiwan.
Good to know’
Why would you buy a 16? Very dangerous surveillance tool.
Are any of them working for FEMA? 0:42
Sponsors are coming back, oh boy here we go. Start of the bull run?
Don't bag on Verizon, they hire people
that amazon story was BS, they came out and said they switched it to blackwell as they had planned and was previously announced. This is like the 5th time you mentioned this bs story.
Actually Nvidia ships H200 now from last quarter, so probably Amazon reduced on H100 but increased on H200.
Ai is going to eat most folks job... so yes buy all means lets keep going long Ai. It will just speed things up for all of us.
I'd also look into the exports to India.Because that's where india will be doing a lot of their expansion
Cell towers have already been a huge oligopoly in Canada, example: Rogers, Bell.
thanks for the video and keeping it real🙂
I'm going in hard on Intel for a multi year play. Cleared a nice 5% today and expect that to be just the beginning with bumps along the way. There is no way their stock will stay beat down like they are currently.
Tricky to do market analysis during an election year. Most data is inaccurate but its definitely not to be trusted during elections. Good work for doing your best during the worst time for analysis.
"NVDIA is poopie doopie" really? - since Sept is now ~30% up. Not financial advice, but if you bought then, it's great to take some profit!
NVDA is todays Dot Com Darling CSCO. I am just waiting for it to crash. Once it does... I will go long as much AMD as I can afford.
The BLS needs to be replaced with AI along with a lot of other gub data agencies
TMUS already bought MINT in 2023
AI is overrated, but yes its the future of tech companies, using AI will defines the future of all TECH Companies
Does nvda , Avgo and amd look’s overbought?
Good info
TSMC just released delivery numbers and they beat! Time to reconsider your position
Whats wrong with government workers. Good pay and benefits
They produce nothing. Their income is paid through taxation of producing jobs. They don't produce income. They take from the income being produced. So they don't add to GDP.
People are just haters. They wish they were one. 😂
Dish tried to make a carrier and is failing miserable
never thought I d hear ING be called that way😅
Understand what you are coming from, but with the US data advocating soft-landing and the fed doing everything to avoid a next correction, it is hard for the market to come down.
Did you see what was in the job data?
Maybe its a reverse market crash 😕
Not for nothing when will AMD start doing something
When NVDA gets below $40 I will be going long as much AMD as I can ... no matter what price it is at.
Accenture is training tens of thousands of their consultants in NVIDIA and Palantir software and systems.
BTW shorted IEF after your former Video, thanks , my puts are almost 100%
Bro are we bullish or bearish? I need to know wh😊at to do.
You should know by watching the full video
@@MeetKevin Love that response LOL
when his hair color is red that's when he is bearish 🤡
you dont need to ask people what to do. do some research yourself and learn more from pros is what i would do.
Gotta pay for the pro version. lol. In a nutshell shell… sell sell sell.
I'm sorry how does government workers or government jobs benefit the economy? When the taxpayer is actually paying their salary
That’s not exactly what he said. He said that government workers are proping the job reports, meaning that without taking those into account, recent job reports would clearly show the weakness in the economy (via unemployement % raising more)
They don't. They do the opposite. They are parasites. Hopefully Elon can reduce those jobs by at least 50% even up to 80%!
@@sammy68786 correct
Thats insane NVDA & AMD only go up
Just like CSCO did durning the Dot Com Bubble. Pull up a weekly chart of that bad boy.
Verizon sucks here in Illinois!
Mkt keeps trucking up.
Kevin can you run Tesla valuation model again before robotaxi 🙏
Kevin i love your content and you are a great businessman. BUT why i the "h, e double hockeystick" dont you have a gear list with affiliate links so people can figure out what you use for recording video and audio and so on, and buy the gear if they like the look or sound of Your videos? You miss a lot of money here. :D
Got it…Taiwanese growth, just slooooower growth!
Might just be my algo.. but I feel like your vids arent showing up on my feed anymore, watch your stuff daily and have to search you up to see a vid. Id usually see a vid like this on my feed right away. weird.
Are you still holding LAZR?
It's election time are they counting volunteers for running voting booths as an add lol "lets inflate those numbers a bit"
It doesn't matter. If Trump loses AGAIN... there is going to be riots in the street. It will start in a Red state not a blue state. And that is very sad.
Kevin, why would Foxconn be in the process of building the world's largest factory to manufacture NVIDIA's latest GPU if the "AI bubble" is near bursting? Why would an established, tech savvy company build an entire factory without assessing demand?
Hi Kevin , why aren`t you doing a special video about Trump and Punit talks latest news ? If it was Biden or Kamala you would have already 2 videos.. !