The REAL DRIVERS of Reserve List, Old School Magic, ALPHA 40 Growth = Weissman vs. Menendian Debate
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ก.ย. 2024
- #noobcon11 #reservelist #mtg
Steve Menendian and Brian Weissman make points about the Reserve List and Growth of Old School Magic. Steve says the Old School Magic Growth is the "Horse" and Other Reasons are "The Cart."
DO YOU AGREE??? What has REALLY been the KEY DRIVERS of the market? Rate them in importance if you can.
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The content of this video published in the United States of America and persons who access it agree to do so in accordance with applicable U.S. law. All opinions expressed by Daniel Chang on this website and on the show are solely his opinions and do not reflect the opinions of VintageMagic.com, LLC or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Mr. Chang on television, radio, internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Mr. Chang as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Chang’s opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither VintageMagic.com, LLC nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Chang, VintageMagic.com, LLC, and its affiliates and/or subsidiaries are not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided on this website. Chang’s statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither Mr. Chang nor VintageMagic.com, LLC guarantees any specific outcome or profit.
Mid 30s guy who was obsessed with mtg as a kid and now has money to throw at vintage cards reporting in. His description of being old enough to have some money and looking at old cards and feeling that passion for the game is dead on.
I think there was a wave of us all getting back in at about the same time. The wave might be over though.
Also while Weissman is clearly right as usual, maybe there is some merit to Menendian's ideas of trying to reignite something. While the way Menendian describes it makes people roll their eyes, if WOTC released a vintage box with 8 copies of every single vintage card so you and someone else could try to experience vintage... But... they are really obvious proxies with different cardboard, different cut, crap stamped on them, like just really terrible crappy cards, but they came in a giant box for like $50 and included some deck lists, some people might be interested. But I don't think this is possible because the space of 2,000ish * 8 = 16,000ish cards would be GIANT. And most of it would be garbage cards no one would ever use in a million years.
And by "different cut" i mean like half-size cards. Not square corners. You might need a magnifying glass.
That wave is WAYYY over, you are right
EDH drives prices more than any other format. Brian nailed that point.
Other than sol ring, and a couple Legendary creatures like Angus, most A/B/U & the original 4 expansions are not commander staples
@@nkmason8284 you are missing the prestige factor of black bordered duals among others.
My bad, dual lands are staples that I forgot to mention. but cards like Serra angel and lightning bolt are not effected by commander and are raising in price because of old school players
@@nkmason8284 I would argue that cards like swords and lighting bolt are still stable removal in commander, probably also attracting those wanting to pimp their decks to buy the older versions.
@@nkmason8284 aggregate demand raises prices but EDH remains the biggest driver. Mana Vault, Regrowth...
That poor woman sitting next to you guys lmaooo
That was an unexpected twist at the end lol - she is hating life right now sitting next to these three guys
zakeel i saw the video where you bought your first lotus (rhystic). after watching it i went and bought my own unlimited one as well. thanks for your contributions to magic!
MATTHEW STEVENSON congrats man. Welcome to the club! I’m just happy to have helped :)
Great arguments here. I wish we knew the true answer! Watching this in 2021 is very interesting.
"Reserved List doesn't matter": Alpha Sol Ring = $2,000; UNL Sol Ring = $140; Modern Commander Sol Ring = $5
"Reserved List matters": Alpha Word of Command = $1,000; UNL Word of Command = $400
"Commander matters": Alpha Timetwister is #2 power card; Alpha Wheel of Fortune is #2 non-Power; Rev Wheel is more expensive than many dual lands
This debate is funny to me. They both are correct. As someone who's been collecting old school cards since 2003, I've payed plenty of attention those prices for 15+ years. Actually been collecting since '94, but financially more viably since '03. Old school cards have been increasing in value the entire time, but slowly, evenly, and predictably. 2015 is the year Old School broke out and became more known, since then the prices have gone crazy, especially since the autumn of 2016. There is, in my opinion, a confluence of factors driving Old School card values. Nostalgia, crypto, investors, Old School, and EDH
all drive the values.
My conclusion; Brian is correct, the Reserved list creates a rarity and specialness that creates nostalgia and desire for those cards.
Stephen is correct that the Old School scene is the horse pulling the cart.
I agree with you that these are the reasons why the values are driven. But I still think there's the discussion for what abolishing the RL will do. My expectation is that there will be a small drop off in value initially. This is because of the Crypto people coming in during 2017 that don't necessarily have the connection with the game, and most likely don't play the game (Rudy has described this). But after the small drop off, I expect to see a continued stable increase in these investable cards. We can test this at a much smaller scale. If you look at something like 7th edition foils or Judge promos or these lottery cards they are all driven by low supply and high demand (just like old school cards). And I think as Brian has stated, Commander is, in fact, a massive driving force. But we still see the demand for these ALTERNATE versions of cards even though much cheaper (functionally the same) versions exist. The demand for these cards is created because they are rare or have nostalgia. As someone who didn't play with these old cards, I still find myself buying the oldest versions of cards I can for Commander. This is not because of my trust in the reserved list, this is because of my trust in MAGIC as a collectible card game. The original purpose of the RL was to promise that Magic as a new game was collectible. 25 years of players will ensure that it stays collectible. So my conclusion is that Stephen is correct that abolishing the reserved list is needed and will not have such terrible effects on the value of old school cards in the long term. Not to say there won't be class-action lawsuits anyways.
I think everyone would agree that these debates are very interesting especially between Brian and Stephen. You should make this weekly on your channel. They can debate with just about anything magic and it’ll be interesting.
Steve lives in Bay Area, Brian is in Seattle. Time also, it is hard to find. This occurred cause we had 2 hours to kill. Good suggestion, but logistically not worth it. But I do enjoy their thoughts, it really has a lot of substance.
Vintage MTG maybe skype. I think magic community needs this. It gives good information and have a knowledge outside of the game. This will create a huge interest in collecting, investing and playing Magic.
All excellent points! I think the Rudy factor is also HUGE. He has tremendous reach now and his message is BUY RESERVE LIST CARDS AND HOLD!
I think is influence of you tube has done something, but he was way behind the 8 ball as he focused on buying boxes, not singles.
More Steve = More thumbs up
I was 13-14 when I attended beta release at Hobby Town in Lincoln, Nebraska. Library of Alexandria's for $1 in binders. Black Lotus's started at $15-$20, straight from packs. That's what they said they needed to get return back. Boxes may have been $40, of starters. I told many, many people that these cards would be valuable, due to baseball almanac's, looking back at early cards in baseball. That's a no brainier and this was before reserved list existed. We, I, also had summer magic here, personally had blue hurricane and some summer duals. Traded beta ancestral recalls, time vaults etc. I've kept everything else non-reserved list since then. Sold cards here and there over the years. I think it's a combination of crypto, old-school and nostalgia for the rise in card prices. Everything effects everything in one way or another. What started the price jumps has to have multiple faucets. Magic and Old-School card prices making headlines increased the amount of players, investors etc. Can't have an egg without a chicken lol
Also they should reprint the reserved list, the original cards are still original and wouldn't effect those prices. Like reprint a Babe Ruth card, same artwork and frame, would the original all of the sudden drop in value? A collector still will pay for the original and the owner wouldn't sell an original for a newly printed cards price, even if it was a Black Lotus. More people could get these cards, if reprinted, and play with them. The average players wouldn't strive to save and buy the original cards since they could get in cheaper per se, to actually play the formats with power. Collector's wouldn't be satisfied or praise a reprinted card, but the original will always be praised
These guys look and act like brothers , also love the scenery of travel, great video Daniel.
Ok, here’s the take of someone who is just an average, middle class guy who loves Magic. And I don’t want my opinion to come off as harsh towards anyone because I totally understand both sides, but if I’m not one of these high end investors, why should I care about the reserve list and the prices of these cards staying so artificially high? So Brian said that one of the reasons that the prices of cards like beta Sol Ring are so high is commander players attempting to attain a level of mystique and wow-factor within their commander decks. This is the same point that he includes in his argument for reserve list cards maintaining their level of rarity, but his point on commander cards seems to, at least partially, invalidate that. If a beta Sol Ring can maintain that level of mystique with the card being reprinted heavily, then how can someone argue that expensive reserve list cards wouldn’t maintain that mystique and special status as well? In addition, even if reserve list cards dropped in value by an extreme amount, they would still be unattainable to a vast majority of MTG players. I own several expensive modern decks and I would still gawk at a beta Black Lotus or Ancestral Recall if it were $1,000 dollars as opposed to $10,000. Even if the level of mystique lessened I think the benefit in terms of accessibility would highly outweigh the cost of old cards not having as much mystique as before.
I guess the bottom line for me, and what really annoys me about the reserve list discussion, is that it seems to me like it's almost exclusively about money, with the only secondary concern being feeling special compared to the “normal” Magic player. I think that owners of reserve list cards want the reserve list to continue in order to protect their investment, and that’s 99% of their concern. They spend a huge amount on the cards, and they don’t want to lose that value. To me it’s pretty much as simple as that, and it’s totally understandable. However they also attach appeals to emotion and nostalgia because an argument almost solely couched in owning many thousands of dollars in cards and not wanting them available to average guys, like me, in order to maintain their investment doesn’t sound as nice and can easily come off as elitist and greedy. They also harp endlessly on the promissory nature of the reserve list because that’s the only point that they can make in their favor that appeals to a sense of ethics or justness, since arguing for keeping cheaply made cardboard cards out of the hands of 90+ percent of the player base, even with different art, doesn’t sound very just or ethical. Otherwise the argument is almost completely from the position of maintaining and increasing their personal position, oftentimes to the detriment of the average player’s ability to play multiple formats.
I totally get their point, and if I bought reserve list cards I might feel the same way. The real crux of the reserve list argument is whether or not Magic should sacrifice the accessibility of multiple formats, which could very well become popular and vibrant if accessible (speculatory statement, but just as speculatory as stating that the formats would be dead even if there was more accessibility), in order to protect the speculative investments of a small fraction of (often wealthy) investors, many of whom care for the cards primarily for their monetary value over some sense of nostalgia or love for the game. Within that argument a huge point is how serious should we still take the reserve list promise. I feel like all other points are in the periphery to this. Old Magic cards have become a speculative investment for rich people seeking diverse avenues to maintain and grow their wealth, just like high end art has become for many collectors, and the argument is whether or not that’s good for Magic, and whether the reserve list should be abolished at the risk of harming that small fraction of Magic card owners.
Brain makes a huge point about how the oldschool format is a product of its history, and that contemporary players only interest in the old cards is their history, not that they would want to play with the old cards or be interested in the slow pace meta.
Brian's point at 27:30... boom Mic Drop.
Brian nailed the EDH point. That was precisely what I was doing with 60 card Highlander before it was an official format. These days I question whether I want to continue to play with 10 black bordered English dual lands because those and all of the other pimp A/B cards makes my deck worth a new car.
I'm just rocking revised land but it's a foiled out sultai rat edh deck. Foil sol ring, command tower, thrumming stone. It's about 5k. It's crazy.
Personally I would never want to get into a format where my deck size basically doubles and I have to treat it just like old school where I want the coveted pricey versions of cards. I'd go broke. You're getting into whale territory at this point and you just have to pick a format because things are just too expensive. I choose old school. If I'm rich, then I play whatever obviously.
I have an outside the box idea. What about ban the Reserve list from all game play like legacy and commander. You will see prices fall and modern cards go way up like mox opal over 300 and mox diamond fall to 20 bucks. You can't play mox diamond in legacy no more but you can play mox opal. What do you think if wizards do something like that. Waight they are starting that in June printing cards for modern that are not on the Reserve list phasing out legacy for a future new legacy with no Reserve list cards can be played. That will put the end of all Reserve list and gets around it.also they are ban in commander.
Bad idea
Part 3 finally! This is a heated debate I love it!
They're all right. But I have my own opinion. If you reprint Black Lotus, I doubt it would affect the value of my Black Lotus. You can all pull them from packs, but mine is still ridiculously rare because it's from the original print runs.
May sound elitist but that's the point I'm trying to make.
Rarity is still insane. There were only 20000 printed. Attrition puts that number even lower. If you have one, you still have one of those extremely rare cards.
That said, just reprint them with new artwork or whatever. Hell, reprint them with original artwork. It will make white bordered Lotuses even more special. Vintage and legacy really needs some new blood.
A point for the end of the video: reprints wouldn't affect the oldschool format, at all. The reprints would likely not even be oldschool legal (as they would have new border and likely new art).
However, they would make Legacy, Vintage, and EDH/Commander way more accessible. That's the whole point with why the reserved list should be abolished: to make especially Legacy more accessible to players, to make also high tuned/competitive Commander accessible, and to ALSO make low/mid-level investing more accessible to prevent the scenario I described in my earlier comment.
Brian: early to mid thirties argument doesn't hold. I'm 20, as are many of my friends, and we're investing to oldschool and reserved list cards. Granted not in the more higher end stuff like power (yet), but in other stuff. Although one of my friends considered buying a mox jet.
As someone who used to play magic before in the alpha/beta days up until Urza's Saga, what made me come back into magic was both being financially able to buy cards in large quantities and the commander format. But the most important factor was the commander format, if it wasn't for an eternal format that wouldn't keep changing every year - that also has all of the cards (most of them) that I used to play with before - is what made me come back and stay with magic. So to say it's the least important point, is pretty weak.
Its so funny to see these debate so in depth about the increase in Alpha and Beta card values when we all know it was Rudy.
Some cards are expensive because of high demand for play, and some cards are expensive because of rarity and conllectibility. If they reprinted dual lands, the revised ones will absolutely go down, the unlimited ones might go down a little bit, and the Alpha and Beta ones will probably remain unchanged. You really have to evaluate each card individually. Some legacy and commander players just want the cards to play, and some want to collect. The demand for some versions of the card would change.
cards would go down in price as they should no fucking card should cost 10k dollars what bullshit
There's no reason to model a world in which Old School didn't develop because WotC would always behave the way they did... and that is the real cause for 93/94 developing over time. WotC's savage reprinting, eventual direct to consumer sales, and total lack of support for Vintage/Legacy over the years was the actual real catalyst. 93/94 was the revolt against the masters. It lets us do what we want with what we own. CMDR (EDH) was ignored by WotC until they realized this intersection existed and then they do what they always do [Seek profit & make mistakes] 93/94 is free from that possible manipulation unless they want to face promissory estoppel (Thanks Dan Bock!) and so it was inevitable.
As a video game collector I completely agree with dude. Stop interrupt the dude and let him talk. I never had old school cards and i would love to see them reprinted so i could play games with them. I disagree with the idea of reprinted cards hurting old school value. It would allow new/more players to join in. And the cards hold value based on the fact they are original cards.
Brian completely contradicts his reprint argument when he talks about blinging a Commander deck with old cards. Dropping a reprinted Timewalk does not evoke the same response as an A/B/U card, which is why they will always be valuable.
Amazing videos Daniel, I could watch this shit for hours
Really enjoy this type of content. Thanks for the debate guys.
Brian's argument that commander is driving prices of old school cards shows the reserve list is unnecessary. People will still buy old school cards for a premium, even for a format where cheaper alternatives are available. Old school cards are still special, even when they aren't on the reserve list.
THIS. I've stated exactly that in my reply with Daniel Millen. Alternate versions of cards still have exponential value compared to versions that are functionally the same! 7th edition foils, lottery cards, judge promos, they all do this and Commander players want the pimped out (foil or oldschool) versions. People pay these prices because they know Magic is collectible because it has been around for 25 years. The reserved list no longer serves its initial purpose, which was a promise that Magic is collectible.
i for one as an old school player and collector will quit magic forever if they reprint. i will keep my cards but never buy again. i have spent decades collecting and saving up for cards and chasing them down at local game stores. wotc made me a promise long ago. i expect them to keep their word.
my only concession is if they reprint but make it obvious that its different. print a dual with a different name and art. when it comes into play its tapped. on the next upkeep owner takes 1 damage to untap. from then forward in the game it is a normal dual land. that keeps the original duals as the pinnacle. everyone wins this way. newer players get dual lands. older players can enjoy their older cards! new cards are cheaper. old cards stay expensive.
@@matthewstevenson1788 no one will miss you
PSA 10 commanders will be the future
Daniel this Debate is very informative and persuasive. Excellent Series sir. Thank you!
What I will say about the reserved list is this. I don't think the removal of the reserved list will diminish the sentimental or spiritual "value" of alpha/beta/unlimited cards.The essence and mystique of an alpha lotus would still exist even if it were reprinted with shitty art.
The main difference is with reprinting power. Steven's point is that non reserve list cards of alpha beta have matched the increases of reserved list. The difference with cards like serra angel and shivan dragon compared to power is that they ARENT the best cards ever printed. Thats why reprinting the power would do exactly what Brian is saying and shatter the legendary status of the cards.
It would be hilarious if the girl at the end was a random passenger and just had to listen to this shit the entire train ride 😂😂
31:44 LOL that lady is like my mom every time me and my cousin and brother talked mtg at the dinner table as kids
Although Brian makes great points about contributing factors, he loses this debate easily imo. Also the argument Brian makes that if they reprinted old school cards the OGs would go down in value since no one would care about them is clearly false to anyone who just does 5m of research on reprinted cards from that era. You'll see the old versions are still very pricey. Also you couldn't even use these supposed reprints in the format because they need to be OG art, OG frame.
Menendian is basically spot on here in mostly everything he is saying. However he keeps saying "people in their mid 30's who were teenagers during 93/94." I don't understand how he can't do simple math here. I'm nearing 40 years old (I'll be 38 in a few months) and I was 10 years old in 1993. SO there are no teenagers who played 93/94 magic, who are now in their mid 30's. They would be CONSIDERABLY older and have even MORE capital to spend. The horse and the cart analogy is actually a perfect representation of this. There are a few contributing factors but the horse is the old school format and community, and the wealth that original 93/94 teenagers have acquired over their lives now that they are moving into their early 40's and of course even much older. And then all the people who never played back then are being brought into the format as well, Even the people with no nostalgic connection to those cards. If you spend any time in OS discords, you would know this. People like old stuff even if they weren't around when it was current. Just look at any old things like records, clothes, you name it. People love vintage shit even without the nostalgia.
Also one more important thing is a lot of people sold their decent cards over time. Now a lot of time has passed, and they come to find out old school is now a thing, and want to play. But, alas, they sold their shit! So if they want to play without proxies, then they need to start re-buying those cards making them even more in demand thus further driving prices. This is also the correct view compared to Brian's view of "OG players still have their cards." Sure some people might have kept old cards they don't use anymore, but a lot of people most likely sold some or all of them off as the aged and weren't playing with so they had no use for them. We weren't ALL super wealthy dudes growing up and a lot of us sold our cards when we stopped playing to get cash to buy things we needed or to pay bills. Like if you agree or tell me why you disagree.
I bought my old school magic cards nostalgically with credit cards in 2012 then paid off the credit cards with crypto profits in 2017. Feels pretty good.
All i care is who is that chick beside you gigiddy
lol I'm guessing you subscribe to Alpha Investments to aye?
The camera guy is definitely not Switzerland in this debate, he obviously has a man crush on Brian. Nothing wrong with that per se, he's a very charismatic guy, I just don't buy that he's neutral. Thanks for the content, very interesting.
Who doesn't have a mancrush in Brian though? ;)
7:44 Poor Cup
I too am an adult who can afford to feed his childhood obsession like never before. I'd seriously bet that the true majority is people in my crowd who just want to own these cards, regardless of actual gameplay.
So many people don't see that relation to commander.
well, if everybody wants old versions to pimp their deck than there is no danger in reprinting old cards for players who dont want to spend a fortune
Two words; promissory estoppel
I think it's a complete unknown as to what would happen. There are tonnes of factors at play. I do however think that Wotc/Hasbro want to make cash and will do whatever they see as best for the continuation of the game. If they, one day conclude that bringing back a bunch of reserved list cards is key... Well, we might then see something like the abolishment of the list.
If that were to happen... I still don't reckon the reprints would effect the price of things too much if at all.
...I’ll sum up my opinion with just this; all the factors mentioned are drivers of Old School Magic, yet nobody realizes that people just want to experience MTG without “New World Order” game design, where all the cards are boring and useless next to the Mythic Rares
Brian is *SO* correct about Commander's influence.
Also, a clear rebuttal that Old School has much to do with the increase of the price of the singles is that there are so few players returning to magic to play old school, because of the *insane* investment that you need to get in order to get a complete deck. However, if you start with commander - and just pimp it out with *a single* beta BOP for instance, that's someone investing into old school magic - without actually playing old school. And the price of just getting one card - is a lot different from getting the complete power nine. There's such a huge gap it's crazy.
Brian is right.
I want to make a point: I think that reserved list should be at least edited (as has been done before) and remove some cards from it. My reasoning being this: it allows for a healthier economy, both for players and for investors of low to mid capital.
Right now existence of reserved list means that there is nearly zero risk in buying reserved list cards, because you almost guaranteed know they're going to rise in price in some time frame. That is because there's zero risk of those cards being reprinted, no more cards can enter the market than those already existing, which is especially on earliest sets very limited pool.
This has lead to "tricks" like buy outs to manufacture the increase in prices by taking a large proportion of supply off the market, like law of supply and demand suggests.
However, this can't happen indefinitely. At some point the prices can't rise any more, because there won't be any demand, because only the top few percent of investors can afford the cards.
Therefore the risk of reprinting should be present on atleast some cards, do stop the deflation of the cards from creating a self destructive bubble.
Commander decks that have 10k in value is definitely not uncommon. I’m not sure if reprinting reserve list would change the really old stuff but I do believe a promise is a promise. I played then and players were ready to quit if it not for the promise.
It's all about the Shivan dragon baby. I agree with Steven though.
There will be always proxy tournament XD
The correlation is bunk. That means there would have been 0 growth until the old school scene started up.
And now we are running a simulation in our heads. He is so far down the rabbit hole he cant see the outside anymore.
What kind of CalTrain is this???
The reserve list is just dumb, period. It only benefits rich dudes who want to hoard their cards.
Steve saying the only point is there is no harm is losing the argument. there are unintended consequences to everything.
Fuck it reprint everything.
@7:43 Nice background noise. Is that the market crashing in the background? ;-)
Weissman looks like a young Supreme Leader Snoke
Timmy can work at subway and buy his reprinted foil black lotus. Or Timmy can learn a trade to make more money to be able to buy an unlimited black lotus and be a larger contributor to society. Whats the better choice here as a society. Steven hates the free market.
@Jake M, the free market in a libertarian society would result in Wizards of the Coast not being chained by what is nothing more than common law. Their intellectual property; their choice to do with it what they will. Don't be bringing the free market into this, buddy. Timmy's foil Black Lotus is exactly what the free market demands.
Or timmy can take the money to buy an unlimited black lotus and use it to the benefit of their family instead of cardboard.
And buy proxies or foil reprints and play kitchen table magic with out the worry of his $6000 card getting damaged or stolen.
Weissman wins