Lacy Hunt: It's Not Inflation But DEFLATION That's The Real Threat To Our Economy

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.พ. 2025
  • BUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at thoughtfulmone...
    Recession fears seem to have faded from the headlines, as the "no landing" scenario seems to have won out -- on Wall Street at least.
    Attention is much more focused on a possible boost to economic growth from the policies of the new Trump administration, as well as concern that inflation could prove stickier and more stubborn to tame than the Fed hopes, resulting in higher for longer bond yields.
    So, were the deflationists wrong?
    For a true expert's view, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.
    #deflation #inflation #trumpeconomy
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ความคิดเห็น • 344

  • @adam.taggart
    @adam.taggart  8 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

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    • @grantgoldberg1663
      @grantgoldberg1663 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      This is Keynesian nonsense and you should be embarassed for putting it up. Nobody was ever hurt by lower food or rent prices. Deflation is the natural tendency for capitalism. More plentiful goods at cheaper prices. What we have is unnatural and the result of the Fed printing money out of thin air.

  • @georgescott6049
    @georgescott6049 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Thanks!

    • @adam.taggart
      @adam.taggart  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you very much!!

  • @jmizzonini
    @jmizzonini 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +91

    Deflation is more of a problem for those high up the ladder. For the rest of us it would be a very welcome (if rocky at times) reset

    • @DestinationBarbarism
      @DestinationBarbarism 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      There are giganormous deflationary pressures in the system. If the Fed fails to hold them at bay, all money are sucked into a black hole and disappears and you have insolvency crisis across the board.

    • @mohr4less
      @mohr4less 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Depends on what latter you’re talking about.
      People pulling from fixed income instruments or invested conservatively, renting, low debt or with very recession-proof jobs tend to benefit from deflation.
      Everyone else it hits hard relative to the alternative. Most people are inherently hedged against inflation, not deflation. Even wealthy people are often using leverage (negative bonds) and invested aggressively (business assets, rents, etc)

    • @user-hm5zb1qn6g
      @user-hm5zb1qn6g 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +11

      @@DestinationBarbarism Let me pause for a moment while I cry for all the bankers who would have to sell of a Porsche or two to remain solvent.

    • @DestinationBarbarism
      @DestinationBarbarism 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      @ Hehe, buhu. But seriously, calm deflation is not a realistic scenario. 99% of what we use as money has been lent into existence. If we started paying them back, ie deflation. The system would see an accelerating disappearance of money that turns into insolvency crisis, almost everyone with outstanding debt would default, house owners, governments, companies, everyone.
      My sister works in London and earns good money. But she buys everything on credit anyway, even small things like scooter and mobile phone. Its just how the system works now.

    • @tommygrubbs2053
      @tommygrubbs2053 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

      As a young person who has no debts, lives in a shit hole that was extremely cheap, has a decently large savings with bonds and treasuries, I welcome this deflation lol

  • @ShaBerkshire
    @ShaBerkshire 4 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    Thank you, Adam and Mr. Lacey. Pray for lower inflation and pray that those legislators will cooperate with President Trump’s new policies. I know in the long run it will succeed 🇺🇸🙏🥰 Drill baby drill

  • @Ficus074
    @Ficus074 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    Adam, thanks for pressing on him to get a clear view of his short term (12 mo) view. Well done!

  • @stdwds11
    @stdwds11 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +44

    give peace and deflation a chance

  • @chasejones8302
    @chasejones8302 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +15

    The fact of the matter is, you're nodding your head as I'm saying this.

  • @Freesteader
    @Freesteader 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Thanks Lacy and Adam

  • @stevee8318
    @stevee8318 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +37

    Debtors suffer during deflation and savers benefit, which is why the US government will never let deflation happen - America is a nation of debtors.

    • @MBarberfan4life
      @MBarberfan4life 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

      Then we should move away from credit money. Technology doesn't grow in a linear fashion: it's exponential. So prices should not only be falling every year, but falling at a faster rate every year.
      Credit money doesn't work with good-productive deflation, so we should abandon credit money. Credit money is hopelessly outdated

    • @alexdegaston422
      @alexdegaston422 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +8

      Employers suffering during deflation and employees benefit during deflation.
      If you have a company with 10,000 employees paying an average of 70K per year wages and 30K for benefits/HR/admin then that's 1 billion per year for HR costs. Their other expenses are 1.5 billion per year and their revenue is 3 billion per year for 500 million per year profits.
      If prices go up 10% then your admin/HR/benefits costs will go up about 3% and other expenses go up about 6% as they squeeze their suppliers out of almost half the inflation. Thus revenues 3.3 billion, other expenses 1.59 billion, and labor 1.009 billion for 701 million profits (or 40.2% growth in profits). You might have to pay 75K instead of 70K for wages and other labor costs up 21 million so this 701 million profit could be about 630 million, but still 26% growth.
      If prices go down 10% then your wages stay the same, admin/HR/benefits go down about 3%, and other expenses go down about 7% as you can't fully squeeze suppliers, but can mostly do so. Thus its 2.7 billion revenue, 700 million wages, 291 million benefits/HR/admin, 1.395 billion other expenses, and 314 million profit (or 37.2% drop in profits).
      It's not easy to get wages deflation without saying "you're fired" a lot.

    • @quixomega
      @quixomega 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      I don't think they care about the nation, only the 1%.

    • @pauljeffery4074
      @pauljeffery4074 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Debt is not a dirty word as some many investors, citizens and the general public. Going into debt to buy a home, start a business or get an education can prove very beneficial financially. As for deflation there is a number of consequences that harm an economy than inflation. However both scenarios impact different sectors of society.

    • @l.a.mottern3106
      @l.a.mottern3106 4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Also, you can't Tax Deflation ;-)

  • @tfmxrp8937
    @tfmxrp8937 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    Great information and interview as always. I could listen to Dr Lacy Hunt all day long!

  • @anthonyferris8912
    @anthonyferris8912 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +19

    Deflation is still a threat...I wonder if I'll ever live to see it.

    • @user-hm5zb1qn6g
      @user-hm5zb1qn6g 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      not a chance

    • @nickzivs
      @nickzivs 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      If only! We started to get housing price deflation here in Canada and the BoC is back to QE.

  • @jamesbottoms8566
    @jamesbottoms8566 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    Deflation is the only thing that will bring us back to reality.

  • @l.a.mottern3106
    @l.a.mottern3106 4 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Steve Hanke was also complaining that the US Money Supply is too low.

    • @adam.taggart
      @adam.taggart  4 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      The economist who are guided by the Quantity Theory of Money are worried about deflation

    • @l.a.mottern3106
      @l.a.mottern3106 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@adam.taggart Yes Adam--But is the Quantity Theory of Money even looked at by the Fed as a factor? If not why not?

  • @jameskuhlman319
    @jameskuhlman319 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    This is one the best thought provoking interviews I ever heard. Thanks Lacy and Adam.

  • @sawtoothbygeorge
    @sawtoothbygeorge 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Lacy Hund speaks with sane comments and analysists. Finally, someone speaks the truth.

  • @nodanlorac
    @nodanlorac 4 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    I will be there in the Marsh conference to hear the greatlacy Hunt.

  • @vitalsigns6403
    @vitalsigns6403 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +24

    I want to know where Lacy gets his deflation? My family is only living thru inflation: food, medical bills, insurance, dining out, vacation, electricity, kids’ needs…on and on….it is a higher plateau of cumulative inflation that we are dealing with!!!! Nothing is deflating….i know let me guess…massive deflation coming …wait for it…..next year in 2026!!!!

    • @michaelfelli7661
      @michaelfelli7661 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      What was inflation, June 2008???? It was over 5%.
      What was inflation six months later?!? Do you know?????
      Yep, MINUS two percent.

    • @user-hm5zb1qn6g
      @user-hm5zb1qn6g 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      @vital: Hunt gets (theoretical) deflation in a textbook, maybe. Not in the real world, that's for sure.

    • @vitalsigns6403
      @vitalsigns6403 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

      @ great I will let my grocery store know to charge me less now! Lol!

    • @KW-gs2gp
      @KW-gs2gp 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

      We are in disinflation right now. The crossover into deflation will happen this year.

    • @auntiefiat9769
      @auntiefiat9769 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      The first few minutes.
      As a manufacturing guy, when I see falling capacity utilization I know there are big problems coming.

  • @sb4333
    @sb4333 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    So stimulus caused us to demand so much food and necessities and that’s why prices are so high for those??

  • @vellaj6270
    @vellaj6270 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    The 1% created the deficit the 1% should pay for the deficit

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      Well said. Problem is those same 1% own both sides of our govt. Until we fix that...

  • @jorisdorsman2532
    @jorisdorsman2532 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Why is money supply not factored in by the FED? Why are they not listening to the wisdom and expertise of Lacy Hunt and Steve Hanke? Soooo fed up with the FED propaganda machine, just lies and spins!

  • @vonhayek
    @vonhayek 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    very balanced view. Makes Trump's policy seem coherent.

  • @kathya1956
    @kathya1956 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +24

    Hunt is a Trump support. That’s all I got.

    • @FloydThePink
      @FloydThePink 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +8

      Ya he pretty much blamed 46 for the stimmie check inflation when it was 45 that gave away the vast majority of the stimmie total money.

    • @rotorpilot81
      @rotorpilot81 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@FloydThePink Yeah, things were so good under the Biden regime🙄

    • @rotorpilot81
      @rotorpilot81 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      One did everything he could to massively expand the government blob, one is trying to get it under control. Dementia dictator is done, and hopefully America won't have to suffer any more of these repressive, mentally ill regimes.

    • @k.dermer2168
      @k.dermer2168 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      And I lived (and lost!) through the Reagan years. Wow, what a misinterpretation of economic history. Kinda ruins his prognostications for me. I did succeed, but Reagan made the hill so much steeper to climb for a young divorced working mom of two growing boys. Good thing I was young, healthy and smarter than the average guy, because I got NO help from anything or anyone , and neither did my boys. I will always regret that I had so little time to be their mom, but I was swimming with too many sharks, and Reagan was throwing chum around me. Thank God for PEROT'S influence in early 90s. Loved those charts!!!

    • @MrSimonious
      @MrSimonious 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@FloydThePinkGet over it your lost

  • @pauljeffery4074
    @pauljeffery4074 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    The problem with Hunt’s comments are his broad use of data. He uses averages when they are not applicable in an economy that has inequality. There are 350M Americans. The wealth and incomes are concentrated in the top 10%. This means 35M people have a more significant impact economically than the other 90%. The Federal Government has an enormous impact on the economy with a $5T budget. Hunt using averages doesn’t look at this disproportionately.

  • @sawtoothbygeorge
    @sawtoothbygeorge 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Personally, I 'm all for deflations, perfectly positioned for deflation.
    The podcast is excellent.

  • @ME-tw7fq
    @ME-tw7fq 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

    VERY GOOD ! THANK YOU MEN.

  • @Fastapproaching
    @Fastapproaching 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +13

    Deflation is about to be the best thing that has ever happened to American people, but it's going to put a hurting on the people that are in debt, it's going to hurt corporate earnings because they've been living on inflation for the past 4 years

    • @MBarberfan4life
      @MBarberfan4life 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      We've been living off inflation since WW1. Prices should be going down every year, and the rate of the decline should be increasing every year. That's the power of information technology and markets

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I agree with what you have said with the exception of inflation. Inflation has been an issue since the Federal Reserve was made in 1913.

  • @AZJ0e
    @AZJ0e 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Adam, thank you for another great discussion.

    • @adam.taggart
      @adam.taggart  4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Glad you enjoyed it!

  • @AlGrant-bh9or
    @AlGrant-bh9or 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Ah, the reagan trickle-down cheerleader! Some of us still operate our 'memory' mode.

  • @ConroyKing-q7r
    @ConroyKing-q7r 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +106

    Thank you for your videos....The current global economy remains challenging, with central banks maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation, creating tighter lending conditions and slowing consumer and corporate spending. This environment is pressuring sectors like housing, retail, and stocks, while rising unemployment remains a concern. Diversified portfolios, including stocks and alternative assets like cryptocurrencies, are essential for managing risk and volatility, alongside balanced trading strategies. Personally, I’ve grown my portfolio to earning 80k monthly, thanks to Kathleen Eisen exceptional expertise and traditional trading acumen, which have been invaluable in navigating this ever-evolving market.

    • @ConroyKing-q7r
      @ConroyKing-q7r 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      Kathleen Eisen is widely available online..

    • @ConroyKing-q7r
      @ConroyKing-q7r 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name

    • @ConroyKing-q7r
      @ConroyKing-q7r 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @KathleenEisen

    • @SergioBisagno
      @SergioBisagno 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I'm so impressed seeing how much people talk good about her expertise, I've been following Kathleen strategies for months now, and I've finally reached the financial stability I've been striving for…..Kathleen program has been the key to my success.

    • @Lisasnell11
      @Lisasnell11 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

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  • @matthewballantyne8903
    @matthewballantyne8903 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +12

    Deflation is not an option. Government has to inflate debt away. Destruction of purchasing power of currency is what we are seeing play out.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Exactly and when we saw Powell try to do exactly that (3 rate cuts) and the bond market said.... "OH HELL NO". That means they are stuck and they know it. If they can't inflate because the bond market won't let them, than that leaves only one alternative. And that is massive spending cuts and austerity. Which is deflationary. If they don't the USA defualts. They will cut almost every social system there is before they let that happen ... which they might just have to do. People that are counting on Social Security, food stamps, whatever... they might be unpleasantly surpirsed. This is what I think is coming.

    • @halbrooks4654
      @halbrooks4654 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ​@@bpb5541 RT, but govt. Won't cut, Social Security, ect. They WILL do, stealth reduction of the debt to GDP ratio- by, understating true CPI inflation and thus reduce nominal monthly payouts. ( COLA for SS, cost of living increase of 2025 is a paltry 2.6 pct ) Real USD purchasing power will be in a slightly negative decline, for years going forward. Stagflation,like the 1970s is my prediction. Way reduced ,govt./ fiscal spending will tank, the recent upticks in USAs GDP. Economic "growth" will be STAGnant, commodities and asset prices inFLATed.

  • @belindaswanson7775
    @belindaswanson7775 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Thank you fantastic programme

  • @kedarmukherjee5007
    @kedarmukherjee5007 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    It is always great to hear LH - he is more like faculty head sharing his thoughts. However, I would like to see how his optimism will play out in a world where labor is increasingly becoming less significant with hyper automation in factories, offices and society in general and joblessness might be precariously high. Will look forward to his and others’ thoughts.

  • @stevendorion9422
    @stevendorion9422 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    It's a shame he WOULDN'T say. Despite Adam's pecking at him - three times - the forces that rule Lacy's public voice wouldn't let him reveal TRUTH. Yes, there's a pathway ahead, but to get to it we must first cross a chasm, and if we / do that, we will fall into it. Without paying attention being responsible, the risks are substantial. Those who aren't prepared will get hurt. Where's the edge of that chasm? We're standing at the edge, and our National debt today prohibits any interaction on the government's part to "protect" anyone but those who've ... a means of crossing the chasm..

  • @jasona5806
    @jasona5806 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Everything happening this year will be inflationary

  • @Lexman00
    @Lexman00 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I been saying this for ages, but Lacey is the first economist I've ever seen, or heard, say that David Ricardo's "comparative advantage" is not really applicable in a world economy where other countries CHEAT. However, I think that capitalism functions so well with a free society, that even if other countries cheat, capitalism will still make the more free country come out on top.

  • @Nic-du6xe
    @Nic-du6xe 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    I have to say i really lost interest once i heard the average person being called antsy and despite the fact that i share some opinions lets not forget that governments, corporations and the stockmarket all made money over the past decades with the global trade model and hand me outs to bail out businesses and grants globally are outrageous. I really don't think going back to the good old days economic or capitalist models will do a clean wash here, we need a new model altogether that takes into account the complexity of 2025 and not 1955.

  • @Mr.BigSquid
    @Mr.BigSquid 4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    It’s nuts all these people say deflation is so bad. Yea, only for the rich.

  • @Pelican5077
    @Pelican5077 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Lacy must not buy groceries, pay taxes, utilities, or have any type of insurance costs.

  • @pianomikey0
    @pianomikey0 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Deflationistas remain strong & wrong, going on 4 years now.

  • @SledgeHammer-bk5gg
    @SledgeHammer-bk5gg 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Saywhat? Deflation? Lacy claims that deflation is a potential threat? Lacy must be looking at his economy's price charts upside-down.

  • @leslietroy2869
    @leslietroy2869 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +16

    I wish Adam had chosen a better name than "Thoughtful Money". I don't think deflation is a problem for most poor or people of average means.

    • @Eric-m2f3d
      @Eric-m2f3d 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      You should read about the Great Depression! You will change your tune once you educate yourself on what occurred.

    • @auntiefiat9769
      @auntiefiat9769 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Deflation kills jobs. Us "poor" people get our sustenance from our jobs, not from playing trader in the various markets.

  • @mlatif59
    @mlatif59 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Lacy Hunt interview has always been very interesting and his insight into the US and world economic situation has been very educating and handy in investment decisions. Great work Adam keep it up.

  • @nickzivs
    @nickzivs 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +8

    I bet if you offered the average person the option of inflation or deflation without skewing their opinion one way or another, they’d likely take deflation after the last 15+ years of inflation. Also, that was inflation with cheap labour abroad keeping their thumb on it. People don’t want monetary inflation, only people that manage financial assets like Lacy do …

    • @khanhcao3123
      @khanhcao3123 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Would you have inflation working 2 jobs or have deflation and be jobless? Deflation is a killer and that is why the fed inflates.

    • @user-hm5zb1qn6g
      @user-hm5zb1qn6g 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      @@khanhcao3123 Yah, the fed-induced inflation is working out well for my purchasing power. It's almost as if we didn't have data from the past 112 years.

    • @nickzivs
      @nickzivs 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@khanhcao3123I mean that’s all well and good if wages commensurately keep up with the monetary inflation, but they have not. We went through an epic technology boom that significantly boosted productivity and wages have stayed flat or declined relative to inflation/cost of living. What I’m saying is the average worker would be fine with deflation or inflation absorbed by capital so that their wages come back in line with the cost of living inflation.

    • @khanhcao3123
      @khanhcao3123 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@nickzivs I understand what you are saying and I agree with you 100 percent. But this is reality, a job paying peanuts is better than no job.

    • @Eric-m2f3d
      @Eric-m2f3d 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      If you think the average person would prefer deflation to inflation, you clearly don't understand what deflation is. This is something so many people misunderstand. There is a reason why the economic structure fights so hard against high inflation. Hint, it's not because it's very hard on poor people.

  • @fishingmanifesto
    @fishingmanifesto 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Excellent interview!

  • @kingsean1965
    @kingsean1965 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Oh no the prices for things might go down!
    That’s terrible! We’ve been rewarding failure and punishing success for way too long. Debt = slavery. Too many of us are in debt. Wouldn’t it be nice to save a few bucks and not have it decrease in value.

    • @Eric-m2f3d
      @Eric-m2f3d 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      So, if you're in heavy debt, then you should want high inflation, not deflation.

  • @douglasreace1052
    @douglasreace1052 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    There is very little mentioned about the "Limits To Growth" forecast and the compound effect it will have on future economic growth tied to the 1972 MIT groundbreaking study, recently revised in 2023.
    All roads lead to a world of increase cost for most things along with possible supply disruptions from increase resource depletion.
    Innovation may open opportunities for growth, but basic materials needed to keep modern civilization going may be offset by planetary limits.

  • @coachs886
    @coachs886 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +9

    Wow so sick of economists not understanding the bifurcated economy. When are you going to have an inequality economist on the show like Gary’s economics?

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      @coachs886 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      th-cam.com/video/46T6Nk2VOG8/w-d-xo.htmlsi=72ApPMatfdVkDBJu

    • @deborahcurtis1385
      @deborahcurtis1385 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Yes, precisely! I do think he's correct on his analytical framework but woefully inadequate in his solutions and situational awareness. He's a blind believer in trickle down economics and blind to Trump's crony capitalism.
      Key questions he doesn't address: how can you drive economic progress if most of your agricultural workers have fled in fear? The same with housing construction? He doesn't take into account that the US is not replacing population; the birth rate is too low and depends on immigrant labor whether documented or not.
      Both Adam and he are naive about how the expulsions are occurring; certainly not limited to people with criminal records.

    • @AlGrant-bh9or
      @AlGrant-bh9or 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ​@@deborahcurtis1385yes, agreed.

  • @Oilfieldscout
    @Oilfieldscout 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Enjoy your guest. Not just an echo chamber to reinforce biases.

  • @timothyrday1390
    @timothyrday1390 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +14

    But will the government and Fed allow deflation to find a natural bottom across industries...instead of further debasing the currency to "save" the economy?

    • @bradleyqueen3879
      @bradleyqueen3879 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

      They wont allow deflation. The gfc and covid proves that.

    • @timothyrday1390
      @timothyrday1390 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      @@bradleyqueen3879 They can't put it off forever. They could have allowed it after the GFC and we would have been better off in the long run.

    • @bradleyqueen3879
      @bradleyqueen3879 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

      @timothyrday1390 i dont disagree, but the people running the show wont allow it unless forced to.

  • @Larimerst
    @Larimerst 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +21

    Ridiculous. At this point, Dr. Hun'ts calls have been so wrong, so consistently disproven by real world outcomes that his opinions strain credulity. It's hard not to question whether Dr Hunt actually knows anything about money at all.

    • @Tential1
      @Tential1 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

      I listen to these guys, to know what will not happen, or what not to do.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

      I think it is super important to have some humility.... everyone thought they were so correct, right before all the major crashes in history.... and then they got their faces ripped off. In most cases it took 20 years to just get back to break even... i am not sure 75% of the rich boomers that are in the market have 20 years to make that up. Just saying.

    • @mrjones9497
      @mrjones9497 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@bpb5541 That's why diversification into different investment types is important, and if an investor's time frame is less than 10 years, their portfolio should be more heavily invested in bonds, and money markets., such as : 65% bonds, 10% cash, and 25% stocks.

    • @myutube8x
      @myutube8x 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@bpb5541 I did not know that; thank youu for your comment. It is helpful to the O/A picture.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@myutube8x You are very welcome. I think the greatest thing of tech is TH-cam. I do not do any other social media. On YT there is interaction, where we can share ideas and learn from eachother. I have read over 200 financial, economic, and trading books. I also invest, swing and day trade. Some of the things I have learned on YT through other people has been priceless. Right now... i think we have either topped or are very close to a top. All markets go in cycles. The next part of the sine wave is down... from these lofty levels that down move could be very brutal. I think folks that have done well in the markets should cash out right here. And put their money in other safer assets or just hold cash. Getting 4.5% yeild on a CD is pretty okay .. at leat that keeps up with inflation. Being super crazy long stocks and bonds right here right now without a stop loss order to protect ourselves is super risky. Since we have basically had 40 years of at or near free money (which has changed) people have gotten lazy and complacent. And this is exactly why bubbles form in the first place. Best of luck to you.

  • @joycekoch5746
    @joycekoch5746 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +12

    Anybody looking at the overnight gold and silver chart can see rates are going to fall.
    Your dollar will be worthless in the years ahead. Inflation will be back hard in 2026.

    • @brianoleson5785
      @brianoleson5785 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      im holding 470,000 dollars into 2028 i believe were going to see the 5th largest asset crash since 1837 in 2025/2026

  • @nodanlorac
    @nodanlorac 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The "Invisible hand" will never be in motion with the tricky Beijing games. Continental China is the ennemy, not Canada neither Europe.

  • @sawtoothbygeorge
    @sawtoothbygeorge 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    All the taxes and other additional costs to run a business is way too much.
    Small or even large businesses have a lot of costs to keep a business running. It appears deflation is coming and a must to get the economies back in control.

  • @VeronEK1988
    @VeronEK1988 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

    He is right. Deflation is coming.

  • @AMD-dx6yz
    @AMD-dx6yz 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Adam - Invite Sergey Nazarov on here. You'd love the conversation.

  • @BillSlikkerveer
    @BillSlikkerveer 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Construction sites - simple fix - provide a legal path to citizenship- neither T nor Congress have proposed legislation.!!

  • @HateDietPepsi
    @HateDietPepsi 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    There can't be deflation. The country has entered the era of printing money, through more and more treasury debt, just to pay the debt.
    The USD will be losing value at an accelerated rate from here. It is not that things are rising it is that $10 you had last year is now only worth $9.00.

  • @jmaietta
    @jmaietta 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    27:46: DOGE is window dressing. Entitlement reform is required to address the root cause of fiscal deficits. The Dollar will continue to lose purchasing power absent entitlement reform.

  • @haldriver1378
    @haldriver1378 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    Thanks Adam! Every time you have Lacy Hunt on I thoroughly enjoy it. In the late 70s, my grandfather passed away and he was the spitting image of Lacy. Even his voice sounds the same. Every time I see Lacy, i can hear my grandfather say, "Pennies make dollars".

  • @stevemar8027
    @stevemar8027 6 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Lacy has been touting deflation for the last few years. Ask Californians about their housing costs going down!

    • @brianoleson5785
      @brianoleson5785 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      house prices are down 10% off from the 2022 peak the price tag didnt rise at all but down so its helping people with cash to buy already even before a crisis happens ...

    • @stevemar8027
      @stevemar8027 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@brianoleson5785 well housing prices have rise. In CA while at the same time interest rates have more than doubled for everyone. Who cares if home prices are down 10-20% in some areas if interest rates doubled or more?! Insurance rates are up 3-400% in some areas… general cost of living is rising for food and virtually all other goods. Gov reports 2.5% inflation when households are averaging 7% or more .

  • @Bltnetwork
    @Bltnetwork 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Did I get this correctly, tariffs in today's mercantilistic world will be deflationary, will make a stronger dollar and will be good for our trading partners?!

    • @rosswhitley3227
      @rosswhitley3227 4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      A strong dollar is good for US, makes foreign purchases cheaper.

  • @Zoet50
    @Zoet50 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    No buy 2025

  • @TheMuttonHeadDigest
    @TheMuttonHeadDigest 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Lacy Hunt has beenwrong for years

  • @davee8840
    @davee8840 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    more trickle down, more unproductive government spending, larger deficits, pro growth policies while the economy is overheating.

    • @deborahcurtis1385
      @deborahcurtis1385 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      unproductive and colossal subsidies and contracts under crony capitalism put your claims into perspective. Elon Musk in charge of spending is putting the fox in charge of the chicken house. Let's not even think about tax policy and the fantasy of trickle down economics.

  • @gabrielw7773
    @gabrielw7773 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    As long as the DXY goes down and the HYG goes up no need to worry about anything. Stock buybacks are our friend.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      They will make stock buybacks illegal once again, just like they used too be. They will figure out it was one of the main causes for the super concentrated, hyper bubble that is about to send the world into a depression. Stock buybacks make "true price discovery" impossible. And I think people are going to want way more regulation not less. Even though America voted for less regulation. We are going the wrong way... just like the FED is going the wrong way. They should be raising not staying the same or cutting. The 2 year yield is telling us that. It could get very interesting very quickly . The zero day options... that is a mistake... Just like during the GFC packaging up AAA into derivatives was. Nothing has changed, we just call it something else. When it unloads it is going to be so brutal and so fast that almost no one will be able to get out of the way. And speaking of the DXY.... she is dying. Once we get below 40% (currently at 58%) of the worlds reserve currency it is over. Everything in America doubles or triples in price overnight. Then .... we crash and then we have a massive deflationary event because no one will be able to afford anything. If Trump keeps being an ass and keeps doing his trade wars or pushing people out of the US Dollar and into BRICs. Think what he just did to Columbia (do you think they are looking to go into BRICs now?) Well the writing is on the wall. We need more immigration and more trade... not less but hey people think they are so correct. We are about to see. I think a once in a 100 year event is about to go down. One so bad and so devistating it will rewrite finical markets and super powers. I can't wait. I am ready.

  • @JamesBlazen
    @JamesBlazen 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +11

    Lacy should retire. His forecasting models don't work.

  • @standinginthegap7118
    @standinginthegap7118 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +10

    I would love to see deflation. Absolutely love it….Make America Affordable again

  • @FireEaterJahfre
    @FireEaterJahfre 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    I'm looking forward to the interview. My expectation is that the focus will be asset deflation, not Deflation as in a generally increasing value of the dollar. Asset deflation happens when people with wealth in assets needs to convert to cash or when the class generally diverts a significant portion of their wealth into speculation...which isn't likely as far as I can tell...which, admittedly, is not all that far....
    Asset deflation will not help folks who make economic decisions at the staples level...should I buy eggs or milk today?

  • @charronfamilyconnect
    @charronfamilyconnect 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

    These stupid tariffs are going to raise prices on many Americans purchases. Is this inflationary or deflationary?

  • @mikemcglauflin8985
    @mikemcglauflin8985 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Deflation cannot happen when gov fraud forces asset prices higher.

  • @mattanderson6672
    @mattanderson6672 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Fantastic discussion
    Excellent analysis Lacy
    Thank you Sir
    Thank you for having Lacy back, I love listening to his points
    Well said!!
    I always love listening to you
    Thank You Gentlemen
    You are waking up and educating a whole generation

  • @jackthompson2497
    @jackthompson2497 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Gold to the moon

  • @jimk1104
    @jimk1104 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

    If deflation had anything to do with globalization, what happens under deglobalization?

  • @viking722nj
    @viking722nj 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Sounds like massive job losses starting even sooner

  • @sb4333
    @sb4333 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

    So frickin cold hearted. I don’t think this man gives two figs for anyone except the 1%. No self awareness he just wants everyone to work harder and longer😅 for our corporate overlords

  • @KC_Saluki
    @KC_Saluki 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +14

    Dr Hunt paints with a very broad brush when referencing handout vs handup policies. Either he’s forgotten or never recognized how damaging Reagan’s supply-side economics were to those in the bottom 90%. Version 2.0 with Trump will likely be even more damaging.

    • @Tential1
      @Tential1 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Same thing they said the first time. Trump will destroy the economy! Economy was fine.

    • @TexasRiverRat31254
      @TexasRiverRat31254 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Reagan's policies were created to benefit those that put a former movie star in place to "guide" the people into giving up everything they gained by creating unions which provided a man a job which would allow the woman to stay home and take care of the children. As unions disappeared, wages fell and those jobs were offshored we entered into the fall of our society to where it is now. Dr. Hunt and those like him were the beneficiary's of "trickle down economics".

    • @Eric-m2f3d
      @Eric-m2f3d 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ​@Tential1 We had the 2nd worst recession in the past 30 years because of Trump. I'm not sure how that registers as fine to you?

  • @hudooguru2
    @hudooguru2 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    LH is boss.

  • @John-ih8sv
    @John-ih8sv 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Long time listener. You always provide the best of the best.
    I agree with Dr. Hunt (I wish he tought me economics at University) and yet disagree. As of February 1st, the Trump administration imposed 25% tarriffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico. Oil is 25% more expensive, soft wood lumber is more expensive, food imported from Mexico is more expensive (esp avocados). Please explain to me how this is not inflationary? Maybe you can have a guest that is an expert in tarriffs. I believe the USA is now going down the same path as it did in 1930 (Hawley-Smoot Tariff).

  • @marciandjohn6320
    @marciandjohn6320 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Adam, based on just the comments by Dr. Hunt, I am purchasing a ticket to "Where are The markets Headed...". I detect a level of optimism , maybe wishful but so good to know that there are a couple of things which can be done to ameliorate the short term.

  • @jmaietta
    @jmaietta 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    21:57: We saw this in BofA's Dec quarter NCO ratios.

  • @bensonjohnrobert
    @bensonjohnrobert 8 วันที่ผ่านมา +9

    Jesus, does anyone ever get bored of this contrarian take?

    • @Oilfieldscout
      @Oilfieldscout 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      No. I despise all the YT echo chambers.

    • @mine0002
      @mine0002 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

      no, what annoys me is comments like yours so which are so ignorant when it comes to a having an ear for an expert like Lacy who has a perspective that is potentially correct. Fact, no one has a crystal ball how things will fall out, but being open to perspectives of much more knowledgeable people is part reveals whether your comments are even worth the time to listen to

    • @khanhcao3123
      @khanhcao3123 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ​@mine0002 people are too busy listening to trash news, but Dr Lacy is speaking the truth.

    • @Tential1
      @Tential1 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      They love thinking a crash is coming to justify their bad performance. Lol.

    • @AlGrant-bh9or
      @AlGrant-bh9or 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ​@@mine0002he's a reagan apologist, cheerleader for the billionaires.

  • @vellaj6270
    @vellaj6270 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Big business should swallow most of the tough medicine.

  • @awesomeBLT
    @awesomeBLT 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Lacy Hunt and Arthur Laffer are in lock step on economic policy and its effects.

  • @MeJonTheDon
    @MeJonTheDon 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    @ Adam Taggart: on your show and others, it seems the professionals speak to liquidity after we see the effects, but in the interim us regular people can't see which way things are going, and this seems to be all that really matters for investments. Can you or a guest of yours point to a live tracker that we can follow that incorporates the cumulative effect of all possible liquidity mechanisms?

  • @christopherdates2467
    @christopherdates2467 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    He refers to an outstanding presentation by a housing expert, does anybody know who this person is? I didn't catch it. I don't know if he named him. A big thanks in advance.

  • @pnice494
    @pnice494 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    Ladies and Gentlemen, this is a Adam Taggart presentation 👏

  • @detectiveofmoneypolitics
    @detectiveofmoneypolitics 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Detective of money politics is following this very informative content cheers from vk3gfs and 73s from Frank

  • @sammansour87
    @sammansour87 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    gotta lock at commodity prices to see that inflation is very well alive and well.

  • @martinithechobit
    @martinithechobit 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    LES GOOO.

  • @dbehr4869
    @dbehr4869 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Did you take down my earlier comment showing what poor results Hoisington bond have had? can we no longer critique the guests, even if they have been wrong

  • @nb6949
    @nb6949 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    so cap u and employment are highly correlated

  • @1982jart
    @1982jart 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    this guy has been saying this from 1969. One day he will be right...

  • @catfoodgeneration
    @catfoodgeneration 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Despite all his obvious economic expertise, Lacy Hunt seems out of touch with what it's like to be a regular Joe in America today and appears to be quite callous about what it will mean to hundreds of thousands of humans with actual needs and feelings when, what he calls, the "hand-out" economy is eliminated. He has no humane answers for the real dilemmas we face today.

  • @danelreahnparas4897
    @danelreahnparas4897 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Hi Adam,
    I'd like to know if you're interested to have podcast with our CEO? about RE?
    Where do we contact you? pls let me know

  • @tommygrubbs2053
    @tommygrubbs2053 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +8

    I find it surprising that Lacey doesn’t know we literally cannot drill more than they have been in the past 4-8 years. That and the US does not refine the oil they drill domestically. That gets exported.

    • @Mark-v4m1b
      @Mark-v4m1b 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Can’t believe you can’t spell his name.

    • @Rajphatak215
      @Rajphatak215 7 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      @@Mark-v4m1b thats not the point. we are at max drilling capacity @ $ 70/bbl. prices need to go higher to drill more and make any money.

  • @LouisvilleTalk
    @LouisvilleTalk 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Tarrifs on Chinese goods will bring production back to US with environmental controls. Unintended beneficiary of policy is climate/environment.

  • @Rajphatak215
    @Rajphatak215 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    hand out people have no use of lower interest rates as they cannot afford to borrow at any rate cause they cannot pay it back hence rely on handouts. Also lower oil prices will not increase drilling to compensate for hand out economy.

  • @olfart7902
    @olfart7902 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Mr. Hunt must own lots of bonds.😉

  • @Tigornable
    @Tigornable 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    It you be great if you could get Martin Armstrong as a guest.

  • @damienmills293
    @damienmills293 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    China is in freefall. Chinese money pumped the housing price bubble. At some point those Chinese who cannot emigrate to the West will sell their assets (Houses) in Canada, USA and Australia in order to fund their their debts in China. This will cause a major asset deflation. It may already be in play.