Subscribe to our second channel - Glassnode Clips - delivers bite-sized weekly analyses, offering insights into Bitcoin and the wider crypto market's trends, performance, and on-chain metrics. www.youtube.com/@glassnodeclips
Woah for real? I'm so excited. norelie daissy strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started...
Thanks for the video. I just signed up. It's all quite confusing but I'm trying to learn. These videos help. Could you consider going back to dark mode too
Great information. I had a question about the ETFs. Don't they mean that there will not be sell side pressure? Or am I not understanding how they work!?
They can be sell side yes. GBTC for example is seeing hundreds of millions in USD outflows each day, it is just offset by even more flowing into the other ETFs.
Markets move by human sentiment. The feelings are always the same, basically fear and greed. This is why patterns repeat and this is why graphical analysis has its value when looking deeply into the markets.
Great content and analysis... but it is hard to digest when you are comparing previous cycles wherein there were no Blackrocks and Fidelitys to now wherein they are the main players. All these previous models on BTC cycles are now moot and academic. The pertinent and more useful analysis will now be something like- how did the gold market react pre and post Gold ETF in 2004?
some chart make me question alot, for example the RHODL at 18'19s: the realize cap for long holder is 2.2b usd at 18'37s: the realized cap for 1y-2y is 706b Usd => so please explain why 2b usd look HIGHER than 706b? that is 350x diffference, it should not look like a decrease to be honest or at 19'03s: when there seem to be a crossover, the red data is 60b, and blue data is 55b???? it look like the red line is below the blue line? so why so? because you cant have a separate scales for a cross over it not making sense just to be clear, Im a big fan and you have a lot of interesting and value researches and charts, but I think most importantly, data should be present fairly and usable first a 10 + years chart, with 80% drawdown look like a tiny minor pull back wouldnt help, you know, 30-40% pullback could lead to lots of account being margin called, let alone 80%- 90% drawdown a 80% decrease should look and feel like an actual 80% drawdown, cuz that what happen in the account with real money
Great analysis as ever. Big fan, thank you. Question regarding "Supply & Demand Equilibrium at Peaks" chart: To what extent has the GBTC switch affected this chart? Would be interesting tonsee that effect, as in the 2017 cycle the Bitcoin forking also influenced this chart.
You could argue that GBTC is just like usual LTH spending. A very large chunk of it is direct sell-side as investors and funds unwind the arbitrage trade from the prior cycle, or from bankrupt estates like FTX. There will be hard to measure nuance in there, but it largely has the same effect as 'sell-side' supply.
@glassnode hey, I appreciate you getting back to me on that. Ok, so could one say that LTH spending (and by extension the rise in STH) is overstated by that very large chunk?
I had been since the previous circle watching every week vídeo, and also in the market. Doesn't feel the same. Can be that since we break the circle, lower low from previous ATH (2017) and new ATH pre halving we don't get an euphoria phase but instead a new normal dicted by the ETF given that they weren't here before?
Have I understood this right then; you suggest we're about 30% of the way through the move - am I taking that from 15400 to 70k as 30% , meaning that 100% would suggest 182k ? And if so, how does the current and projected demand from ETFs play into this? People think this is a new pool of institutional money but you could argue that ETFs are just expanding the retail pool to boomers and that 'behavior' is therefore likely to be similar over the cycle.. but boomers probably aren't aware of the cycle... And then there's the idea of BR buying their own ETF for long term global allocation, nation states buying for sovereign wealth funds long term, treasury long term, and the international bank of Saylor never selling... These are potentially significant and novel influences on the economics of the cycle when considering the retail behavioral effects right?
As always a great video! Last chart SOPR vs funding rate was interesting but I think I disagree with the conclusion. This reminded me of the work done by Daniel Kahneman and his book (Thinking, fast and Slow). The observed difference in actions of hodlers and those speculators may not necessarily point to a different perception of future, or the difference in probability (in their view) that price goes higher. Let’s assume both give %80 chance that the price goes higher. The choices are the following: - hodlers: sell and take profit with %100 percent certainty or betting with %20 chance of loosing the profit -speculators: betting some money and get returns with %80 chance. So even with the same perception of the future, we are dealing with two different psychological choices. Maybe I am wrong, but this is very interesting market behavior to think about.
I think glassnode really need to think back carefully on how you plot charts and the scales, it quite misleading, leading to chart not really justifiable 1. the data long before 2017, we all know it very different money, institution players and so on from now, and it make no sense to use a log chart for 20 years, it make a 90% drawdown from the top 68K look like a minor pull back (while that is significant now), the other: the bull run from, 0$ to 1000$ or even 2-3000$ isnt matter anymore, not all of us was there then, and we didnt have the average pricing in 1-2USD / btc, so it dont mean anything to us to behonest, BTC will never go back there too
Subscribe to our second channel - Glassnode Clips - delivers bite-sized weekly analyses, offering insights into Bitcoin and the wider crypto market's trends, performance, and on-chain metrics. www.youtube.com/@glassnodeclips
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in last month 2024..
Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Sincerely speaking. I will continue to trade and stick to expert nor elie daily signals and guides as long as it works well for me...
Woah for real? I'm so excited. norelie daissy strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started...
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?"
thanks, glad this is free content
‘Babe wake up, new glassnode vid has dropped…’
Superb as usual
Now that we’re all time highs, can Glassnode afford to produce videos in dark mode??
Underrated analysis. Should have 1mil views
Glassnode, are you able to ban these obvious scammers?
Edit: thanks
What a job done! A lot to process! Congrats again
Awsome work! Thank you
Fascinating ! thanks for those analysis 🙏
Thanks for the video. I just signed up. It's all quite confusing but I'm trying to learn. These videos help. Could you consider going back to dark mode too
tldr: it is going much higher. too bad I already sold everything. too scared to buy now.
Thank you
So helpful thank you
Excellent content. As always. Thanks a ton
Thanks
Incredible insights, thank you
Thanks bro
This is really helpful. Thank you. Looks like we're done with 1/3 bull market. But you never know...
Genious! Thank you!
Legend
Great information. I had a question about the ETFs. Don't they mean that there will not be sell side pressure? Or am I not understanding how they work!?
They can be sell side yes. GBTC for example is seeing hundreds of millions in USD outflows each day, it is just offset by even more flowing into the other ETFs.
I can't believe this is free
Question: are inflows into the new Bitcoin spot ETFs considered short-term holders?
yes they are initially
Can a retail investor get access to tier 3 metrics?
Isn't GBTC selling to move to lower fee ETFs?
Markets move by human sentiment. The feelings are always the same, basically fear and greed. This is why patterns repeat and this is why graphical analysis has its value when looking deeply into the markets.
Beautiful
Great content and analysis... but it is hard to digest when you are comparing previous cycles wherein there were no Blackrocks and Fidelitys to now wherein they are the main players. All these previous models on BTC cycles are now moot and academic. The pertinent and more useful analysis will now be something like- how did the gold market react pre and post Gold ETF in 2004?
some chart make me question alot, for example the RHODL
at 18'19s: the realize cap for long holder is 2.2b usd
at 18'37s: the realized cap for 1y-2y is 706b Usd => so please explain why 2b usd look HIGHER than 706b? that is 350x diffference, it should not look like a decrease to be honest
or at 19'03s: when there seem to be a crossover, the red data is 60b, and blue data is 55b???? it look like the red line is below the blue line? so why so?
because you cant have a separate scales for a cross over it not making sense
just to be clear, Im a big fan and you have a lot of interesting and value researches and charts, but I think most importantly, data should be present fairly and usable first
a 10 + years chart, with 80% drawdown look like a tiny minor pull back wouldnt help, you know, 30-40% pullback could lead to lots of account being margin called, let alone 80%- 90% drawdown
a 80% decrease should look and feel like an actual 80% drawdown, cuz that what happen in the account with real money
only 1 question, wen the top, man?
Great analysis as ever. Big fan, thank you.
Question regarding "Supply & Demand Equilibrium at Peaks" chart:
To what extent has the GBTC switch affected this chart?
Would be interesting tonsee that effect, as in the 2017 cycle the Bitcoin forking also influenced this chart.
You could argue that GBTC is just like usual LTH spending. A very large chunk of it is direct sell-side as investors and funds unwind the arbitrage trade from the prior cycle, or from bankrupt estates like FTX. There will be hard to measure nuance in there, but it largely has the same effect as 'sell-side' supply.
@glassnode hey, I appreciate you getting back to me on that.
Ok, so could one say that LTH spending (and by extension the rise in STH) is overstated by that very large chunk?
❤❤❤
I had been since the previous circle watching every week vídeo, and also in the market. Doesn't feel the same. Can be that since we break the circle, lower low from previous ATH (2017) and new ATH pre halving we don't get an euphoria phase but instead a new normal dicted by the ETF given that they weren't here before?
Big percentage of new holders are ETFs and Saylor buys. He is diamond hands. TBD on ETFs, but probably at least 50% long-term holders.
So its not just New mined bitcoins that are being sold to the ETF's, longer term holders are actually selling. Great video btw.
Have I understood this right then; you suggest we're about 30% of the way through the move - am I taking that from 15400 to 70k as 30% , meaning that 100% would suggest 182k ?
And if so, how does the current and projected demand from ETFs play into this? People think this is a new pool of institutional money but you could argue that ETFs are just expanding the retail pool to boomers and that 'behavior' is therefore likely to be similar over the cycle.. but boomers probably aren't aware of the cycle... And then there's the idea of BR buying their own ETF for long term global allocation, nation states buying for sovereign wealth funds long term, treasury long term, and the international bank of Saylor never selling... These are potentially significant and novel influences on the economics of the cycle when considering the retail behavioral effects right?
As always a great video! Last chart SOPR vs funding rate was interesting but I think I disagree with the conclusion. This reminded me of the work done by Daniel Kahneman and his book (Thinking, fast and Slow). The observed difference in actions of hodlers and those speculators may not necessarily point to a different perception of future, or the difference in probability (in their view) that price goes higher.
Let’s assume both give %80 chance that the price goes higher. The choices are the following:
- hodlers: sell and take profit with %100 percent certainty or betting with %20 chance of loosing the profit
-speculators: betting some money and get returns with %80 chance.
So even with the same perception of the future, we are dealing with two different psychological choices. Maybe I am wrong, but this is very interesting market behavior to think about.
I can't believe MMCryoto has more views 😂
Glassnode is too 'boring' for the average consumer, but that's why I think it's so good. There's no stupid hype or emotionality
I think glassnode really need to think back carefully on how you plot charts and the scales, it quite misleading, leading to chart not really justifiable
1. the data long before 2017, we all know it very different money, institution players and so on from now, and it make no sense to use a log chart for 20 years, it make a 90% drawdown from the top 68K look like a minor pull back (while that is significant now), the other: the bull run from, 0$ to 1000$ or even 2-3000$ isnt matter anymore, not all of us was there then, and we didnt have the average pricing in 1-2USD / btc, so it dont mean anything to us to behonest, BTC will never go back there too
Love it