Forecasting (13): Holt's trend method forecast (double exponential smoothing)

→Forecasting course: researchhub.org/course/foreca...
.
This video explains the concept of Holt's trend method for forecasting and demonstrates an example using excel.
#holtTrend #trend #forecasting #researchHUB #excel
.
Published paper using forecasting methods:
(1) ARIMA and NNAR: www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/2/103
(2) ARIMA, VAR and ANN: doi.org/10.1057/s41278-020-00...
.
Join the ResearchHUB Community:
FB Page: / research.hub.org
FB Group: / research.hub.org
Instagram: / research.hub
Website: researchhub.org
.
Follow the RHUB Founder:
ResearchGate: www.researchgate.net/profile/...
LinkedIn: / ziaulmunim
Twitter: / zhmunim
Website: www.ziaulmunim.com
Courses: course.researchhub.org

[@uwenolte8578]

Thanks very much for the great example. The only one I had found alread. Just one point. I do not get it, why you input the value for the forecast yt+1 for period march 1996 into cell I7 instead of I6. By including the time parameter t+1 it is already clear, that the forecast is for the next period. Any you also want to make sure, that the forecast for march 1996 is made in february 1996. By putting it into a cell below, you waste one forecast at the end. Also I did use the software xlstat and it also did it one cell above.

[@freedomqwaszx1872]

it's easy to understand at the beginning, but starting from 11'15" I got lost. Why just simply put 1 to 6 to calculate future forecast, any explanation or theory behind that?

[@marcinkoczot2059]

Amazing video! Thank you

[@jussirihto2351]

very helpful again, cheers!

[@RESEARCHHUB]

Glad to hear it!

[@thagoonlprusiriyodlpru4174]

thank you so much

[@arinasabilarosyida7115]

so, how to forecast for the next period? example Jan 2000

[@AjitKumarSahi]

can i get ppt used and excel sheet computation done

[@navketan1965]

Sir, If I am doing double exponential smoothing 5 period moving average with a software program--after 5 period exponential moving average is calculated say (X) does computer do second calculation with data X and (X-t1) (X-t2) (X-t3) (X-t4)- - - - forgive me,I went to college 50 years ago..(X-t1) is exponential moving average one period prior & so on.

[@joonamikkola7800]

Thanks for a great lecture!

[@RESEARCHHUB]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@pskaratzas6788]

Great videos and very helpful! Which forecast methods do we use when we have seasonality??

[@RESEARCHHUB]

holt-winters, see th-cam.com/video/uLHOfewK9wc/w-d-xo.html

[@mewalkwithyou7475]

thankyou but what if the last Tt's value is negative?
I tried to forecast using holt but because of negative Tt's value my forecast value is decreasing.

[@RESEARCHHUB]

have you tried any other method for example HW or regression? maybe HT is not the most appropriate method for your data?

[@abhinayrec]

What is out sample forecast? Why July didn't use June values?

[@RESEARCHHUB]

Please see th-cam.com/video/16IKsLlZClY/w-d-xo.html

[@likhitanalam8395]

Thankyou for the explanation, what if forecasts comes negative and how could we verify whether this model for our data is correct or not?

[@RESEARCHHUB]

What kind of data are you forecasting?

[@upamanyudixit8298]

Can you increase the Volume please.

[@TerryBowl]

Acadamic grade!

[@durgasthan]

The problem with that is the Forecast Horizon calculation where to get Forecast for future you are just multiplying with forecast horizon number

[@RESEARCHHUB]

This is not a problem at all. There are different approaches to forecasting, and this is one of them.

[@user-wh4ke3rd5u]

@@RESEARCHHUB I have a question: In double exponential smoothing, the sum of alpha and beta must= one, or not necessary?

[@manishv9816]

0:20 TT hahahahaa

[@jamiesmandarin9792]

This is confusing, more background knowledge please and use a typing instead of writing pen, can't read.