I was wrong about something in this video! Right now the 50+ Cardle quizzes are only available for Lucid GTO members. You can get it here: upswingpoker.com/lucid-gto-trainer/ But we will be releasing 1 free daily Cardle soon. Keep an eye out for that!
the hand u ran with Aj in Sb should just be a jam on flop, ran this many moons ago. think the trainer should be updated dougiefresh, as JTx fd boards have the highest frequency of c-bet jams
@@NickMetlitsky yes, I was wrong. We plan on making the daily Cardle free (like Wordle) but that's not ready quite yet. Lucid GTO members can access all the Cardles now and will be able to access the full backlog forever.
@@SBDCKJDid you mean a check jam? Or are you saying actually just rip it for like 4x pot? I don’t think you should be open jamming the flop here with any hands. Obviously it’s going to be profitable with a bunch of hands, but there’s no way it’s optimal, certainly not GTO. If this is like the softest game ever where ppl are going nuts (I’ve played home games where jamming here is optimal for sure lol…bc you’d get called by every Tx, every fd, every open ender, and obviously every worse jack) then okay. But that’s not what we are doing here looking at a solver. Open jamming also seems very hard to balance. You’re prolly jamming like KQ, some FDs, apparently AJ, then I guess QQ-AA? I cannot fathom why jamming AJ here would be ideal, without looking I just don’t believe it is. If you’re gonna jam you’d probably prefer not blocking a big chunk of his calling range that you crush by having a jack. Again without this being some ridiculous exploitative play vs a huge drunk whale you know at a home game or something, which again isn’t what looking at what the GTO play is for, you don’t want to shove AJ. I’ve been wrong about some crazy stuff the solver spits out before (lol at calling JT in that WSOP hand for example, though that’s obv cEV, it’d still be a cEV punt IMO, let alone in that spot in an MTT…but what do I know) so never say never. But I certainly believe jamming just shouldn’t really be a thing here. Maybe if you put in like 1/2 pot, 3/4 pot, all in, and check as the options it’d tell you to jam some tiny % of some % of your range. But saying it’s just a jam is wild lol. I’m prolly wasting my time being trolled but I have time to kill waiting to get my haircut so whatever.
"What if he was bluffing? What if he had nothing? " Well Doug if u were watching this whole night you'd realize he never was caught in a bluff and never bluffed..esp when betting big on the turn. Also could he have AQ or ATs he'd fold? Yes, but there are WAYYY more value hands he bets here than hands he'd fold.
Hahahaha bro I take the gaMe seriously for the most part but I’ve for suuuure been there before. Was really rooting for Foxen but this just goes to show how tough this tournament is and it’s a grind. One mistake can mean disaster.
One misstep shouldn’t overshadow what is arguably the best female run in main event history. There were hundreds of live streamed hands that Kristen played perfectly. Up to this point she had outlasted 10,000 players over the course of 8 grueling days. Not to mention she is incredibly classy and professional. Kristen deserves nothing but respect for such a monumental performance.
Poker is a game that literally has nothing to do with gender or sex. No advantage to either side so whenever someone uses that wording, "best female run" in poker, its cringy. Not to mention this particular female angled her way with her now husband at a final table and slowplayed against him in what was obvious collusion.
You never mentioned his bet sizing. 2/3, more than 2/3. I mean. Solvers have changed the game. But in a game of this magnitude. In this spot. This bet sizing should carry strong weight. What hands do this that are folding. Idk. Not many.
imagine if a solver could take that into account and you could enter that in prior to running the solution... imagine if that was a technology that was possible in 2018 and we're in 2024.
@@vincentlai4474 what are u talking about, he's talking about the emotion side of things, the human side....solver won't do squat in a spot like this....maybe she could have had A5, got 2 pairs, then shoved. When did he snap?
solver plays against solver, and as he earlier noted solver in the BB is turning all sorts of Qx and 10x into check raise bluffs. for most real humans, most of the time, they aren't taking all their garbage queens and tens into bluffs like this. so against real humans (even his tone of voice indicates he knows how nutty it would be to call from the UTG spot a turn check raise jam from the BB with J10) tend to about never call with that J10 in this spot. he also mentions that most of the time, most humans don't want to call this check raise jam even with A10, AQ. if that's even sort of/sometimes the case on sebok here this becomes a great move. she just ran into the part of his range he ain't folding, AK. what we don't see in one hand analysis is how often this move and ones like it had often worked for her earlier, it's probably a good bit of the time, only becomes bad looking like this when you run into the part of the range that ain't folding. and the less tenured a poker player that's seeing this, the worse it likely looks to them, her actions here (looks a lot like newbie punts). and by this point krissy B/foxen has more than enough track record where, unless she herself says something like "yeah i overdid the bluff range there (as doug shows in solver vs solver for KQ)" almost anybody else's opinions on the matter aren't close to as relevant as her's, her record is long and great.
Yea even doug couldnt beleive that one,nice that he doesnt just approve every maniac decision by the solver,look at some of the things it check raises on the flop ,crazy
Glad she’s out. The amount of obsessive cockslopping from the poker community over this woman has been beyond cringeworthy. Everyone obsessively simping over her because she looks like a naughty librarian. Foxy Foxen is GONZO and the tournament is better for it.
The main issue here is Serocks range has so many monster hands that snap you off, KJs, AJ, AK, JJ,KK,AA, and QTs only aiming to fold out AQ, AT and maybe combo draws but even then getting this price at the end might have to call. KQ is just too in the middle if you want to continue much prefer calling, folding is fine too since he has plenty of strong hands on this board (possibly even A5s as well)
Yer also if you just call and then a spade, a heart, a queen, or a 10 come on the river. He jams river obviously regardless and you need to call your remaining 26m into 64m in the middle. I get it's not solver approved shove, but I don't think it's the worst and the differential Doug shoved shows it's not that bad a play. She's probably better off folding the turn there than shoving, especially as the fold equity even for draws is so minimal.
Yup exactly...so easy to see that's why this makes her look terrible u don't have to be a pro even an average player would know this...like what are u trying to get him to fold w the all in move ...goes to show u no matter who u are we as poker players still do donk moves from time to time...this is a big deal because it was at a time towards the end field of the biggest ever tournament u can play in the world ....if it was a regular tournament or anything else besodes the Main it wouldnt be such a big deal
I call KQ the "going home hand." Busted out off a few tournaments with it and someone told me "Why do play that garbage. Your a loser to any ace, or even a pocket pair, and many boards good for you are good better for your opponent." I never go all in with it.
Was in a session one night. Cash game. Probably a 10 hrs of play. Pocket qeeuns got dealt 14 times that night. Not one time did they hold up. They got played played slow . Played fast. Never held up at the showdown. KQ is a bust hand also
It always bewilders me that if you just do nothing for a few rounds and chill out, you've just made 200,000/400,000$ for doing nothing just cause other players took risks and went out.
Yes when she played a hand really well everybody was praising her and sayig how goated she is, now its forgotten. I guess your only as good as your last pot :D
It could have worked Doug but please she was solid going to final table Joe was aggressive she blew up and no never hit 600 tell it really she punted please
The point is, everytime shes wrong, shes out. Yes, sometimes she might be right and the guy is bluffing (even tho he has absolutly no pure bluff there), but even in those times that she is right, that doesnt mean she wins the tournament or even the hand itself. Gotta remmemeber that if shes there for the whole thing, first shes got to be in the FT. She had a good stack and she had an edge on some of the players, she absolutly didnt had to take a marginal (and I'm being kind here) bluff. Not to mention that there is absolutly NO long term in ME, so ignoring ICM and playing full chip EV is already a big punt for itself.
I always watch your videos Doug, I enjoy every one of them, although I'm not subscribed. But after watching your Kristen Foxxen video I said to myself, you know, that's the kind of thing I can get behind. Wonderful work on the supporive, fact of the matter video! Kudos & TY
I watched every hand she played at the televised tables. In SO many hands she played like she could see her opponents cards. Many bluffs that got thru ... and even more hands where when behind she some how found exploitive folds. A lesson in how to excel at tournament poker. Great to hear Doug's perspective on her final hand.
She has nothing to hang her head about. But GOD DAM she is going to have a hard time to not be haunted by that play. She played Great the whole way through. She just stepped in it at the worst time. My hat is still off to Her.
I give her credit. Doug not so much. I play much smaller tournaments. She had 40 million chips against other players that had 15 million chips. They made the final nine for a million dollar pay day. ICM to me is relevant. Take you time and pick your spot. She did not have to go all in on a bluff. I know its always easy to second guess. She played better than most men or women.
insane to throw away a chance at history on a dumb bluff. she tried to "act like a man" obviouslt and the praise for her bluff the day before got to her head
@@troycambo A marginal error in an otherwise very successful run. And it's probably not to "act like a man", it's probably because bluffs work and she wanted that $10mil cash, lol...
The problem is that his range advantage was too great. I think your analysis is more correct if suppose he was late position. Basically you want to be betting that he's got a flush draw moreso when he's in late position rather then when he opens in EP because the chances of him hitting that flop EP are just too high.
Gréât vidéo. Thé preflop interests me most. I was almost positive that she/hero was supposed to 3bet KQo in the BB and then fold to a 4bet. I’m surprised KQo flats OOP to defend Bb with such a decent hand. I guess it’s cuz she is closing the action?
Excellent video Doug! I love the ending wisdom. When I saw how quickly Serock calls 2 pair, my initial thinking was, well should she have any bluffs if 2 pairs don't fold? Seeing AQ/A10 as gto calls, I actually don't mind her play b/c I think those hands bet turn and almost always get bluffed out w/ shove
Thank you, Doug!! It is so easy to criticize and not so easy to make a run so deep into the main.. I bet all the ones that are criticizing cannot make it anywhere near as far!!
Judging by your reaction to spectators' opinions, you're obviously a kid. So here's a lesson, kid. Since you can not handle spectators' opinions, do not listen to spectators' opinions. It's that simple. Here's another lesson, kid: A spectator does not have to be as good as the player or athlete that they're watching in order to have an opinion about that player or athlete's performance. You're welcome.
In solver work (which I love) your opening ranges for Serock are way too wide. If you tighten his range to accuracy it makes it wayyyyyy more of a punt.
Serock's turn double barrel range is also pretty crazy wide considering how himself and just in general that table was playing. Much more cautious and pot controlling than a chip EV solver wants to do.
Been watching Doug forever. Huge fan. But I have to say this his legit worse video and worse analysis he did ever. Ignoring ICM on FT bubble with many shorties is torching EV with a blow torch. It's not a matter of liking ICM. It's a mathematical fact. And that's even before considering opportunity cost. But the worst thing is, the given preflop ranges he used in his analysis are detached from reality. I watched the play on that day. People were playing super snag Serock included. I think Astedt was mostly the only one picking spots to go out of line. But even he didn't open things like 43s orT7s UTG. This was a pure fold given how people played at that table. And this video is pure BS. Still I have to say Foxen played great even though she ended up punting this one.
Facing a preflop raise from UTG followed by a flop that wet, I would need to feel as though my opponent's opening range was wide as the sea in order to even consider a bluff. Sure, UTG will likely be wider 4 handed, but this isn't the spot to yolo her tournament life.
Throw all the charts and GTO reasoning you want... it is still a PUNT... The bet on the turn was enough to convince her she was behind... she stil had 33bb and was better off than 4-5 other players... with the turn bet, it was clear that Serock was never folding... it was a punt that will haunt her for life... sad to say...
The bet on the turn is polarizing, which means it's either the nuts or nothing. She blocks two of the main nut hands (KK and QT) and unblocks all the bluffs. When you unblock bluffs with a condensed range and low SPR it's usually not bad to go all in. If villain is folding top pair here it's probably even better than what GTO says. The only reason it's even -EV in GTO is because it's just below the threshold for the hand strength (and blocker properties) to do it with.
@@jonathanhenderson9422 its just called a punt at this stage, its not about math, its just that its unnecessary to risk a lot of chips when you are not sure what utg player has and here is the proof; even if she won this pot and utg had nothing it was a bad play
@@rachadtarhini6201 Poker is always about math. Poker IS math. Talking about necessary/unnecessary is pretty silly in poker. All that matters is whether it's +/-EV. This play is slightly -EV in theory, and arguably +EV if you think villain will be overfolding. Maybe in ICM it's worse, but I don't know how much.
If everybody is out there giving there take on whether or not her play was the greatest punt ever or a ballsy play, you need only to look at her husbands face to know that deep down he wanted to say “don’t worry Rampage you did great!” His face says it all!!
I am a poker enthusiast. All i know is She has 30 bbs left if she folds, if she jams she will run into the top of his range sometimes but what does his AQ and A10 maybe even KJ do? They can’t love it. Either way it’s day 8 and she’s been under the lights for 3 days with all the pressure on her its easy to make a mental mistake (if this is one, I don’t know) and one mistake is enough to end the run
Quick question, although im doubtful you’ll see this. I live in south Austin and haven’t yet made my way up to the lodge to check it out. Definitely planning to soon however and was curious if you had any plans to sit down in low stakes $1/2 to mix it up any time soon. I’ve been playing poker for a while but only recently started digging into the real intricacies needed to become an actual poker player. I’m sure the waitlist would be out the door but it would be awesome to mix it up and learn a few things. Anyway, keep pumping out great content, your hard work is immensely appreciated.
She played extremely well for 8 days and there were a lot of spots that she survived that many others wouldn't have. Sadly in the main all it takes is one mistake and that's it. Also it's probably easy to level yourself into thinking it's just the big stack abusing the FT bubble. Sad to see her go after spinning up from 5bb.
@@cryptocomedy9327 Feel like you have to continue and barrel river repping the flush or not bluff pot (11m) at all on the turn. I can imagine that her read vs Kim was good but didn’t back it up on the river because of ICM & pressure, then overcompensated for it vs Serock.
she got too much praise for her bluff the day before and it got to her head. her bluffs the day before were against weak players who showed weakness with multiple checks
She seemed to lose her tempo, timing and body language all at the wrong time in this hand. She never really looked at Serock or studied him for some reason like she had done so often in previous hands. Not sure what she picked up on or what her read was but it was clearly wrong. Based on her body language in this hand, there wasn't two seconds of doubt in Serock that he was ever behind. Bad story on Foxen's part equals epic punt.
@jamesp6805 I think she had to put him on a weak Ace. Like A2 through A9 suited combos. That would most likely fold to a chick. But yes as played he is never folding 2 pair or better here. Or even AQ.
She had to think he had a weak ace. But I just don’t think he ever does when he bets so big on the turn. Weak aces bet smaller or check, only the big hands and bluffs bet big on this turn, so turning KQo into a bluff is not a winning play on this run out with the action.
I understand the desire to try to understand this hand. For me for most people at some point in a tournament your luck can just run out. Having watched much of the play, there were similar situations where she outflopped her opponent with the second best hand. Her aq vs ak for chip lead with 16 left is a similar situation. If the flop comes ace high, she probably goes out there. Instead she hits the queen on the flop. Sometimes you can just believe your luck is in. Why is there a need to solve a game which at limes requires huge amounts of luck. I was just surprised the 10 didn't hit on the river.
@@brianwillis8447 I understand there are so many great players out there, and she is clearly one of them. However what makes poker such a great game for me is, on any given day you can just be blessed. When it's happening to you, you push a little more because you feel something is working on your side. All the greats would tell you, if luck had not been on their side often, they probably would not be I the positions they are. You can play great all you like, but we have all seen AA getting cracked by AK. That could be the difference between becoming a poker great or not. Once you have the necessary funds you can simply keep going again and again.
19:08 there's a slight difference between QhTs and QsTh, I imagine it's blocking properties against front door/back door flushes? I am not sure why solver prefers one or the other though. And does solver prefer the opponent to have the Th, Ts or the Q variants? Interesting results
@@Mordecai154 Yes exactly, it boggles my mind. Even aces beats her hand. She is a fantastic poker player, but this decision was so out of line, a true punt.
@@Gos1234567 So then what happens on the river? If she blind shoves she loses the rest of her stack, if she check folds then she's "only" down a bit less than a third of her stack and in an even worse position. She played to win the tournament, representing both flush draws, a straight draw, and a made straight, and lost, rather than playing to not lose and almost certainly losing.
@@LucianDevine She folds and still has over 30 Bigs lol. It's not that hard to just let second pair go when Serlock has been showing up with hands all day
That is why you do not bluff in that spot to the opponent that raised prelop and both streets. "Playing to win" means nothing. That is what every player is trying to do and you can easily argue that was not the way to win. So yeah pretty bad arguments to defend a bad play.
It was a bad play and there were so many out there before getting sucked out on year after year. It is the WSOP, but this was a really really bad play as I stated more precisely in my comment here. One of the worst and brainless plays I´ve ever witnessed that late in the tournament. Medium size stack, six dudes pretty far behind in chip count, a all street better UTG, come on, this is not the spot. And we should not give more sympathy because she is a woman or more likeable than others, this was her fatal mistake and there are quite a few others in recent years who played pretty bad, but this play is amongst th top five in the last decade for sure.
I'd be curious to see a solve factoring in ICM. This is a pure call in chip EV according to the video, but it may not be in ICM-land. I also think ICM may shift our bluffs from more flush draw based to more blocker based. I think its possible this hand bluffs at some frequency if you factor in ICM. You probably bluff less often with ICM but getting folds becomes more important and binking a flush comparatively less important, so your bluffing range may shift more towards hands like this.
The problem is when we're the preflop caller, we DO NOT get to go crazy on AKx boards. We never have AA, KK or AK in our range and our opponent has all of them in their range. Here, as crazy as it sounds, we actually have to play AJ as a bluff catcher. KQ could call turn but it's perfectly fine to just fold it but not turn it into a bluff when we're at a clear range disadvantage. Was rooting for her and she played great overall but blundered this final hand. GG.
As good as your videos are Doug, the UTG opening range for the solver seems way too wide which is why it thinks JT is calling the shove which intuitively seems off to any human. Putting in a tighter range considering there's a covering stack on the Button vs the UTG probably fixes it.
I'd love it if she'd had 55 or QT or JJ, etc. She was BB so the initial call was fine. Serock seemed so sure he had it, it would have been great to see him surprised.
Are you analyzing based on GTO only? My take was mainly around deviating due to the seemingly reduced bluffing frequency this close to FT. For me he is just not bluffing here. I mean UTG 4 away from the main FT, I imagine that bluffing frequencies for anyone other than the table chip leader is just tiny. His bet on the turn says " I am not bluffing" so I dunno, I thought she should have folded to preserve her tourney life. I do not think it's a punt but I also do not think she was taking into consideration the underbluffing that is being done at this stage of the tourney
Every highlight of Kristen, she was shoving and getting people to fold. I think she went to that well once to much. He had 2x her stack. If he has a flush or straight draw, he may call her bluff because he's still in it. She should be making those bluffs for the smaller stacks. It was clearly a punt. She was expecting him to just go away like the others did.
"this guy" You don't know who Joe Serock is? He is by far the best player remaining in the field, and most accomplished. He had double her chip stack. Her shove on the turn was a blowup Scotty Nguyen, Mike Matusow, and Rampage would be proud of. One of the worst moves I have ever seen from a "professional" She literally gave away 2 million dollars. Her luck and card racking from this tournament finally ran out.
Great video. She pulled off moves like this prior. It worked. Won't work all the time though. Quiet often you only get to make one mistake in big tournaments. But we'll done Kristen.
As the tournament progresses to this stage, players become very cautious. Most players pay more attention to ICM (Independent Chip Model) pressure and avoid taking risks. However, Foxen chose to go all-in at this moment, possibly thinking that her all-in could push out many medium-strength hands from her opponents, such as middle pairs, weak aces, and even some two-pair hands. The expected value (EV) calculation considers not only the possibility of winning the pot but also the immediate gain from winning the pot when the opponent folds. If the opponent's calling range is very narrow, then this all-in EV could be very high, because the opponent would only call in very few situations and win. In high-level competitions, psychological tactics are equally important. Foxen's aggressive action might be sending a message that she will not back down easily, forcing her opponents to be more cautious in future hands, thus creating more opportunities for her. In conclusion, although Foxen's bluff did not succeed, this all-in decision was not without basis from a strategic and psychological perspective. In high-level poker tournaments, players often need to make bold decisions at critical moments to achieve the greatest benefit. Foxen's aggressive action is a manifestation of such high-level decisions. Although the result was not ideal, in the long run, this kind of strategy could yield high returns at the right time and against the right opponents.
@@deancorso4212 This is a 6-max table, and the UTG line shown here is quite polarized. Some hands like 8Ts, 9Ts, Q8s, Q9s, or even TT are possible with such actions, while our KQ blocks some of the opponent's nuts hands like AK, KK, QTs, and KJ. I don't think Foxen's KQ is particularly strong here, but it is still ahead of some hand combinations. Calling might be a bit of a stretch, but folding seems a bit of a waste. In this situation, turning this KQ into a bluff doesn't seem like a bad choice!
You can say "well, that's how she made it that far to begin with" and you'd have a point, but I think at some point the money jumps (ICM) say to slow the eff down. She could have folded her way into the final table most likely....
Personal impression, I think it was just bad time for this particular move. As you showed, AKJ, even 5-handed, favors the UTG raiser's range as he's gonna hit this board fairly often. I'd kinda be interested in seeing what hands KQ still beats that are still supposed to fire ~80%pot on this turn after being called on flop. Obviously I'm not playing 13-left of the Main, but I think I'm releasing KQo after the turn bet. With our stack size he's gotta call ~25m to win ~63m if we shove, so we're not really even pricing out a lot of hands that beat us. I definitely think if we're gonna shove, flatting the turn then shoving the river when the 6h lands will probably work more often if we're aiming to make a move, but we also don't block any hearts, risking villain having those still. Again, I'm not in her spot, but I think I just release KQo here since even when I'm ahead, I'll still have to run against hands with tremendous equity against me, and my stack will still be strong enough to take advantage of a better spot.
even disregarding icm, if you include bet sizing here, i’m pretty sure KQ is not a pure call on the turn… there would be a lot of folds from KQ that includes one spade and/or one heart
The fact we don't have a single player winning the event for many consecutives years (like tennis, swimming, chess, etc) means that luck play an important role. As for strategy, yeah, there are some but then again if it is not a disadvantage to deviate from strategy as one may be seen as being unpredictable.
Nice vid Doug and cool of you to stand up for the lady but no matter how you spin this, this is an intergalactic mega punt and will remain so until the end of time.😂
So I watched the ME in stages. I would monitor chip stakes and pop in and out. I saw the all in but didn’t continue. I went back to see how Serock got his chip stake up and I went back to see how Foxen got hers down. Serock is an animal. He played everyone. He came off as a loosey goosey person. Non chalant. I’m having fun, I’m listening to music, I’m wearing goofy glasses, nothing to see here. She mis read not the table, not the hands, HIM. This gets through on everyone BUT him. No one is giving him credit. Over the course of the tables, he’s been setting that exact play up with his demeanor. It’s not the hand. So it’s not a punt. She had in her mind she’s going to take him for a ride and hang a noose around his head. She made up her mind. And he set the traps way before that hand. Look at him with his glasses off just watching her. He sees her long blink and registers it. He knows she’s going over the top and he’s mentally prepared for it because she thinks he will fold. The face she makes isn’t at his cards, it’s at the fact that he calls so quickly. She realizes she was wrong about her read of him. Her and her husband were watching plays every night getting reads in people looking for right opportunities. They discussed who to bluff big and who not to.!he was one of them. She was happy he got a big stack, because in her mind he was basically the bank to her. They read HIM wrong not the cards
The fact that she made it this far was the acting-out-of-term some hours earlier, where Foxen was saved from playing the JJ into KK that also turned a set of K's. While considering her actions next-to-act pushes AK all-in and KK quickly calls also somewhat out of term. This makes her obviously fold JJ. However without this situation, I am sure this would have been a very different outcome.
i think the range you gave the utg raiser in the solver is too loose but i might be wrong. i dont really see him opening hands like A8o or a lot of those junky suited hands.
She was trying to scare Serock with all that hollywood acting like chip counting, checking her hand as if she has Q10, and etc. While on the other hand Serock wasn't concerned at all and auto call her all-in shoved. What a punt!
I saw very few folks double-barreling bluffs the entire ME (except Hellmuth's J5o bluff lol). They'd C-bet and that'd be it w/ a few rare river bluffs. So if he's barreling on the turn with huge size, it's likely he has something better than middle pair. Even his UTG raise would contain Ax esp on the bubble of the FT "How does she know no one's bluffing the turn a bunch, she can't see the cards and isn't watching the streams..." These live streams all were on replay to watch at 2x speed
@@Bang-bangBart My biggest leak is not using solvers enough. Most of my winrate comes from my ability to spot bs when I see it. Of course there's a lot of math. Been playing for 22 years and am a winning player supporting myself with this game for a chunk of that time.
Finished 5th for a bracelet 2 years ago (im an avg player at best and came in with the chiplead at the FT), went out on a big semi bluff kinda like this, not gonna lie i have been thinking about it off and on since, your message at the end helped get some closure, it was secretly what i needed. Thanks for the videos doug, appreciate your analysis.
I think her head sweep to the right after the flop call was perceived as a tell that caused him to snap call the bluff. He'd already made the read that she was weak.
They were streaming one of the hybrid events yesterday. 1 chip leader bullying everybody (Soritopoulous) +5 people folding 50 hands in a row because of "ICM." Sure, someone ends up laddering up.... but for some of those players they sit around folding for 2 hours just to finish in 4th or 5th place anyway.
@@genesises He is right,chip leaders can make a lot by raising almost any 2 on the stone bubble in tables with mid -low stacks because of ICM.But that wont work in a game where people dont give a crap about making the money
Doug 7 years ago I signed up for upswing and it helped me a lot so I have much respect for you. That being said, you butchered this video my man. You can’t analyze the biggest ICM spot in the world without ICM, I understand that ICM ranges for this spot is not available even on Wizard which only supports 1000 entry tournaments preflop, so we are far from having post flop with icm for a 10k entry field, however, we can make educated guesses base on how the ranges differ from 200 field to 1000. The fact of the matter is, the bigger the field size, the bigger the ICM impact when reaching final table bubble, this is a 10,000 field entry with 13 left. Not considering ICM in this spot is something Jerry Yang or Jamie Gold would do, not a top professional. In a 1400 entry field like the 1k event 82, the pay jump from 13th to 9th is 10k to 16k. An increase of 6 buyins. In this situation sure, play for the bracelet who cares about a couple grand. In the main event, from 13th to 9th is a whooping 40 buyin increase. Do you see the insane ICM pressure here? Let’s put this into perspective, if you play this event and have the run of a life time and placed 18/10000, you will only make 35 buyins. I haven’t even factored in the prestige of being the 2nd woman ever to make a final table and the only one in 3 decades since the game has become mainstream. Obviously, there is a lot more money on the side that she can make if she final tables being the only women who has done it in nearly 3 decade, and the 2nd overall. I don’t how much but I’m guessing a lot more than some random chick considering she’s a high-stakes crusher who is also very beautiful, a very attractive candidate for all the sponsors to fight after which would only increase her sponsorship deals even more.
@caliscratch-hunter OK I went back and you're right: When she bluffed 2 players with AJ on the A-high board there were 3 hearts on turn and rivered paired. I'll edit my OP.
Most unnecessary punt of all time, without question. It’s actually mind blowing she thought that was the right call to make, ESPECIALLY with an Ace out there. 😂
Crazy how many losing players are down here pretending to have a better grasp on mtt poker than foxen. You should go play the main event next year. If she could get this far there is no way you wouldn’t stand to take the whole thing
Great analysis of this one. The only thing I don't like about her play was she picked a spot with such a bad range disadvantage, but maybe she thought he'd know that and it would help her bluff.
Had she done this with 4 or 5 tables to try to eye the final table in chips yes it's not so bad. But with a healthy stack you gotta fold the turn IMO... The ICM in the main event here with 13 left is just insane...
Here’s the issue, his value range for double barreling this spot is extremely strong, he’s not showing up with a hand like AQ here… so she’s either ahead or bluffing into 2 pair+ that isn’t going to fold, so outside of denying equity to his bluffs this shove doesn’t accomplish anything
@@longhornsforeva idc what solver says he’s 100% checking back or betting small hands like AQ or A10. I watched him play for 2 days, he wasn’t getting out of line at ALL, he made one semi bluff on a turn card that heavily favored his range. So A) I don’t think he has many bluffs B) even if he does we’re still ahead of those while folding virtually NONE of his double barreling value, i.e the shove accomplishes nothing other then denying equity from bluffs, which Makes it a massive punt
Thr main thing i didnt like about Foxxen's timing on that bluff was the two hearts on the board. I kept thinking to myself.."dont do it...he will call bc he thinks you are on a draw with maybe 1 pair".
I'm more interested in knowing what Seroc think he was calling against. He didn't even hesitate. Why did he think it not possible for Foxen to have made a straight on the flop?
*Wow😁, it's crazy how some people can become multimillionaires by investing just $10K in trading within a few months, while others have to work for 40 years to reach $1M in retirement savings. The power of smart investing, right?*
That's true. a lot of people today have been having a ton of disappointments in forex and crypto trading in light of helpless direction and awful specialists
What do you guys think about mixing in some folds on the turn? I know the solver favours calling but if you call and miss then you check and Serock is jamming then you have 2 fold and you wasted what half your stack on the turn call?
Hell of a run but missed the curve at the end of the road. How many chances do you get to make a final table in the main event? Sitting sixth with 13 players left I just think there would have been many better opportunities to get your money in. Doesn't take away from a heck of a performance but it must burn.
![ค้างคืนโรงเก็บกระสวยอวกาศร้างกลางทะเลทราย [Around The World Ep. 3]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/E5bWZQhABJE/mqdefault.jpg)
I was wrong about something in this video! Right now the 50+ Cardle quizzes are only available for Lucid GTO members. You can get it here: upswingpoker.com/lucid-gto-trainer/
But we will be releasing 1 free daily Cardle soon. Keep an eye out for that!
the hand u ran with Aj in Sb should just be a jam on flop, ran this many moons ago. think the trainer should be updated dougiefresh, as JTx fd boards have the highest frequency of c-bet jams
Not free
@@NickMetlitsky yes, I was wrong. We plan on making the daily Cardle free (like Wordle) but that's not ready quite yet.
Lucid GTO members can access all the Cardles now and will be able to access the full backlog forever.
@@SBDCKJDid you mean a check jam? Or are you saying actually just rip it for like 4x pot? I don’t think you should be open jamming the flop here with any hands. Obviously it’s going to be profitable with a bunch of hands, but there’s no way it’s optimal, certainly not GTO. If this is like the softest game ever where ppl are going nuts (I’ve played home games where jamming here is optimal for sure lol…bc you’d get called by every Tx, every fd, every open ender, and obviously every worse jack) then okay. But that’s not what we are doing here looking at a solver.
Open jamming also seems very hard to balance. You’re prolly jamming like KQ, some FDs, apparently AJ, then I guess QQ-AA? I cannot fathom why jamming AJ here would be ideal, without looking I just don’t believe it is. If you’re gonna jam you’d probably prefer not blocking a big chunk of his calling range that you crush by having a jack. Again without this being some ridiculous exploitative play vs a huge drunk whale you know at a home game or something, which again isn’t what looking at what the GTO play is for, you don’t want to shove AJ.
I’ve been wrong about some crazy stuff the solver spits out before (lol at calling JT in that WSOP hand for example, though that’s obv cEV, it’d still be a cEV punt IMO, let alone in that spot in an MTT…but what do I know) so never say never. But I certainly believe jamming just shouldn’t really be a thing here. Maybe if you put in like 1/2 pot, 3/4 pot, all in, and check as the options it’d tell you to jam some tiny % of some % of your range. But saying it’s just a jam is wild lol.
I’m prolly wasting my time being trolled but I have time to kill waiting to get my haircut so whatever.
"What if he was bluffing? What if he had nothing? " Well Doug if u were watching this whole night you'd realize he never was caught in a bluff and never bluffed..esp when betting big on the turn. Also could he have AQ or ATs he'd fold? Yes, but there are WAYYY more value hands he bets here than hands he'd fold.
That’s how I play poker after a pint of whiskey and a couple beers online
Hahahaha bro I take the gaMe seriously for the most part but I’ve for suuuure been there before. Was really rooting for Foxen but this just goes to show how tough this tournament is and it’s a grind. One mistake can mean disaster.
@@predwards8941I can only imagine how draining mentally it must be by this point
or as i like to call it "fuck it poker"
Jo! This is exactly the kind of shit I do after a 12 hour session, where I should left an hour ago.
but have you ever won 600k?
One misstep shouldn’t overshadow what is arguably the best female run in main event history. There were hundreds of live streamed hands that Kristen played perfectly. Up to this point she had outlasted 10,000 players over the course of 8 grueling days. Not to mention she is incredibly classy and professional. Kristen deserves nothing but respect for such a monumental performance.
She had an amazing performance but not even close to the best female run. Multiple females have taken 10th place in the large field era
Poker is a game that literally has nothing to do with gender or sex. No advantage to either side so whenever someone uses that wording, "best female run" in poker, its cringy. Not to mention this particular female angled her way with her now husband at a final table and slowplayed against him in what was obvious collusion.
@@justinszczawinski3326 It absolutely does have something to do with gender. Women aren't as good at men at poker, that is a given.
In history?
Gaelle played as good as her and didn't punt the tournament
You never mentioned his bet sizing. 2/3, more than 2/3. I mean. Solvers have changed the game. But in a game of this magnitude. In this spot. This bet sizing should carry strong weight. What hands do this that are folding. Idk. Not many.
Good point. It's a an absolute punt. Kristen is way too good of a player to try this sort of bluff on this board.
No sleeves were harmed during the making of this video.
should be pinned
😂
What kind of sleeves?
@@tarico4436 - Green
She had none either
I love the solver reviews in your videos Doug, please include them. I think (hope) many others agree with me on this.
The Supreme Leader rolled right out of bed and into the studio.
You right lol 😂
Supreme Leader lost weight it seems
He has a youngster. I have twin toddlers. We don't sleep well.
Serock should be banned from wearing a tank top .
😂😂😂😂
Wtf it's disgusting lol
Someone had to say it 🤣 he looks good just not at the poker table lol. He looks like he just started lifting and this is his first cut
@@iflyhelicopters why would you cut if you just started lifting and look like this. how does that look good???
@@iflyhelicopters
worst comment this year
"Solver calls JT" ..... well, solver isn't sat in the WSOP Main Event with 13 players remaining.
imagine if a solver could take that into account and you could enter that in prior to running the solution... imagine if that was a technology that was possible in 2018 and we're in 2024.
Mate, shut up. You are a massive nerd and rely on solvers because of your complete inability to think critically for yourself. @@vincentlai4474
@@vincentlai4474 what are u talking about, he's talking about the emotion side of things, the human side....solver won't do squat in a spot like this....maybe she could have had A5, got 2 pairs, then shoved. When did he snap?
well it was on the rail though :)
solver plays against solver, and as he earlier noted solver in the BB is turning all sorts of Qx and 10x into check raise bluffs. for most real humans, most of the time, they aren't taking all their garbage queens and tens into bluffs like this. so against real humans (even his tone of voice indicates he knows how nutty it would be to call from the UTG spot a turn check raise jam from the BB with J10) tend to about never call with that J10 in this spot. he also mentions that most of the time, most humans don't want to call this check raise jam even with A10, AQ. if that's even sort of/sometimes the case on sebok here this becomes a great move. she just ran into the part of his range he ain't folding, AK. what we don't see in one hand analysis is how often this move and ones like it had often worked for her earlier, it's probably a good bit of the time, only becomes bad looking like this when you run into the part of the range that ain't folding. and the less tenured a poker player that's seeing this, the worse it likely looks to them, her actions here (looks a lot like newbie punts). and by this point krissy B/foxen has more than enough track record where, unless she herself says something like "yeah i overdid the bluff range there (as doug shows in solver vs solver for KQ)" almost anybody else's opinions on the matter aren't close to as relevant as her's, her record is long and great.
Doug has entered his “Mr Rogers” era. We need an intro now
Mr. Rogers knew there were only 2 genders and wasn’t a leftist dbag
Mr rogers wasn’t a leftist d. bag
Mr rogers wasn’t a leftist
Tired of confusing himself with Selbst all the time.
“If you’re on the fence…just start going for it more” -Doug Polk like 2015-2016ish
Gonna start calling off in this spot with JT, solver approved!
Perfect example of why solvers are dumb
Yea even doug couldnt beleive that one,nice that he doesnt just approve every maniac decision by the solver,look at some of the things it check raises on the flop ,crazy
@@Gos1234567 Yes its about what your beliefs are. You're such a poker savant!
Kq isn’t that different from jt. He’s likely not doing this with qq. Or kt or qj.
@@RafiGish I think Doug knows a lot more about poker than you
I luv her facial expression after the snap call 0:24
She smelled what Serock was cooking in that moment.
That was Kristen getting a full whiff of Joe Serock's Nuts (AK pretty much the nuts there)
Lol yeah. I’m pretty sure she swallowed vomit there
That's also her O face.
Glad she’s out. The amount of obsessive cockslopping from the poker community over this woman has been beyond cringeworthy. Everyone obsessively simping over her because she looks like a naughty librarian. Foxy Foxen is GONZO and the tournament is better for it.
Yeah to me it shows clearly that she knew she punted and she instantly regretted
The main issue here is Serocks range has so many monster hands that snap you off, KJs, AJ, AK, JJ,KK,AA, and QTs only aiming to fold out AQ, AT and maybe combo draws but even then getting this price at the end might have to call. KQ is just too in the middle if you want to continue much prefer calling, folding is fine too since he has plenty of strong hands on this board (possibly even A5s as well)
Yer also if you just call and then a spade, a heart, a queen, or a 10 come on the river. He jams river obviously regardless and you need to call your remaining 26m into 64m in the middle. I get it's not solver approved shove, but I don't think it's the worst and the differential Doug shoved shows it's not that bad a play.
She's probably better off folding the turn there than shoving, especially as the fold equity even for draws is so minimal.
So what you’re saying if you were at the same situation as she was, you would’ve played it perfectly. Got it.
Serock doesn't bet 11 million with AQ or AT
She's literally just punting lol
@@chezchezchezchezI wouldn't go all in right there that's forsure 😂
Yup exactly...so easy to see that's why this makes her look terrible u don't have to be a pro even an average player would know this...like what are u trying to get him to fold w the all in move ...goes to show u no matter who u are we as poker players still do donk moves from time to time...this is a big deal because it was at a time towards the end field of the biggest ever tournament u can play in the world ....if it was a regular tournament or anything else besodes the Main it wouldnt be such a big deal
I call KQ the "going home hand." Busted out off a few tournaments with it and someone told me "Why do play that garbage. Your a loser to any ace, or even a pocket pair, and many boards good for you are good better for your opponent." I never go all in with it.
Was in a session one night. Cash game. Probably a 10 hrs of play. Pocket qeeuns got dealt 14 times that night. Not one time did they hold up. They got played played slow . Played fast. Never held up at the showdown. KQ is a bust hand also
Kq is often ok to go all-in with at 15ish bb
Did that someone really say, and I quote: "...and many boards good for you are good better for your opponent."?
@@stargazer4625 - What the fuck are Pocket qeeuns?
Wise words.
It always bewilders me that if you just do nothing for a few rounds and chill out, you've just made 200,000/400,000$ for doing nothing just cause other players took risks and went out.
Tournaments are oftentimes free money if you display just a modicum of patience ; zig while others zag and you can go far
Regardless of the final hand, she had a great WSOP ME
… Which will be only remembered for this specific hand
Yes when she played a hand really well everybody was praising her and sayig how goated she is, now its forgotten. I guess your only as good as your last pot :D
did she? ...... did she dummy????
@@BrendonKennedy-yl4oz I would say 13th out of 10,000+ entries is a great result, regardless of however you're knocked out
@@OsbornsConcise only by small-minded wannabes. Her record speaks for itself.
was about to be pissed if u didn’t jump into solver review
Is Serock sponsored by the Bodies Exhibit at the Luxor?
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
hahahhaha
I refer to him as Armpit Vomit
LMFAO
It could have worked Doug but please she was solid going to final table Joe was aggressive she blew up and no never hit 600 tell it really she punted please
Doug saw Serock in a tank and said, "That's not who I want to be".
Foxen played that hand like she was playing on Zynga Poker
be careful. simps will get upset at the truth
😂
Lmaooo
This is the most awesome and honest breakdown. I think I’ve ever seen over a card hand.
Card hand lol
You need to look at Phil Galfond breakdown of Vanessa Phelps versus quads
@@chezchezchezchez Is Vanessa Phelps related to fellow poker pro Michael Phelps? Did she also win a gold medal by any chance?
@chezchezchezchez Vanessa who ?
The point is, everytime shes wrong, shes out. Yes, sometimes she might be right and the guy is bluffing (even tho he has absolutly no pure bluff there), but even in those times that she is right, that doesnt mean she wins the tournament or even the hand itself. Gotta remmemeber that if shes there for the whole thing, first shes got to be in the FT. She had a good stack and she had an edge on some of the players, she absolutly didnt had to take a marginal (and I'm being kind here) bluff. Not to mention that there is absolutly NO long term in ME, so ignoring ICM and playing full chip EV is already a big punt for itself.
Serock showing Doug how to wear a tank top...
The guy that looks like a junkie fresh out of a crack house?
that guys shoulders and arms are uncanny valley level of wrong.
Looks terrible though
He's lanky and creepy, looks horrible
No shit, Serock.
I always watch your videos Doug, I enjoy every one of them, although I'm not subscribed. But after watching your Kristen Foxxen video I said to myself, you know, that's the kind of thing I can get behind. Wonderful work on the supporive, fact of the matter video! Kudos & TY
I watched every hand she played at the televised tables. In SO many hands she played like she could see her opponents cards. Many bluffs that got thru ... and even more hands where when behind she some how found exploitive folds. A lesson in how to excel at tournament poker. Great to hear Doug's perspective on her final hand.
She has nothing to hang her head about. But GOD DAM she is going to have a hard time to not be haunted by that play. She played Great the whole way through. She just stepped in it at the worst time. My hat is still off to Her.
amen
@@danielmeuler2877 agreed
Yeah man that was a wild move. What does she beat there? Lol. She played well but that was a PUNT
Who knows what goes through your head 6 days in after playing hours every day, even great players are going to make a mistake at some point
A little surprised she got the KK through the two AJ guys on the A-high board earlier. This time the ace guy didn't go anywhere.
After all that with 13 left in the main event is this really the spot? Brutal
No... Sad
I give her credit. Doug not so much. I play much smaller tournaments. She had 40 million chips against other players that had 15 million chips. They made the final nine for a million dollar pay day. ICM to me is relevant. Take you time and pick your spot. She did not have to go all in on a bluff. I know its always easy to second guess. She played better than most men or women.
She's a woman so you can tell the honest truth man c'mon. Any dude does this and it's 100% a punt.
insane to throw away a chance at history on a dumb bluff. she tried to "act like a man" obviouslt and the praise for her bluff the day before got to her head
@@troycambo A marginal error in an otherwise very successful run. And it's probably not to "act like a man", it's probably because bluffs work and she wanted that $10mil cash, lol...
The problem is that his range advantage was too great. I think your analysis is more correct if suppose he was late position. Basically you want to be betting that he's got a flush draw moreso when he's in late position rather then when he opens in EP because the chances of him hitting that flop EP are just too high.
these ranges feel like a psyop by doug fr 😅😅😅
It's 6 handed so it isn't exactly UTG range
Gréât vidéo. Thé preflop interests me most. I was almost positive that she/hero was supposed to 3bet KQo in the BB and then fold to a 4bet. I’m surprised KQo flats OOP to defend Bb with such a decent hand. I guess it’s cuz she is closing the action?
Excellent video Doug! I love the ending wisdom.
When I saw how quickly Serock calls 2 pair, my initial thinking was, well should she have any bluffs if 2 pairs don't fold? Seeing AQ/A10 as gto calls, I actually don't mind her play b/c I think those hands bet turn and almost always get bluffed out w/ shove
Thank you, Doug!! It is so easy to criticize and not so easy to make a run so deep into the main.. I bet all the ones that are criticizing cannot make it anywhere near as far!!
Judging by your reaction to spectators' opinions, you're obviously a kid. So here's a lesson, kid. Since you can not handle spectators' opinions, do not listen to spectators' opinions. It's that simple. Here's another lesson, kid: A spectator does not have to be as good as the player or athlete that they're watching in order to have an opinion about that player or athlete's performance. You're welcome.
@@theejayzeeable WTF? Who is the kid you are talking about, kid???
Please continue the solver reviews!
In solver work (which I love) your opening ranges for Serock are way too wide. If you tighten his range to accuracy it makes it wayyyyyy more of a punt.
Yup it was UTG
Im new to solvers. Was it saying (given the inputs Doug Polk used) that she should have just called instead of raised?
Serock's turn double barrel range is also pretty crazy wide considering how himself and just in general that table was playing. Much more cautious and pot controlling than a chip EV solver wants to do.
@@Raphael_246 correct, green means call
Good catch
Been watching Doug forever. Huge fan. But I have to say this his legit worse video and worse analysis he did ever. Ignoring ICM on FT bubble with many shorties is torching EV with a blow torch. It's not a matter of liking ICM. It's a mathematical fact. And that's even before considering opportunity cost. But the worst thing is, the given preflop ranges he used in his analysis are detached from reality. I watched the play on that day. People were playing super snag Serock included. I think Astedt was mostly the only one picking spots to go out of line. But even he didn't open things like 43s orT7s UTG. This was a pure fold given how people played at that table. And this video is pure BS. Still I have to say Foxen played great even though she ended up punting this one.
Facing a preflop raise from UTG followed by a flop that wet, I would need to feel as though my opponent's opening range was wide as the sea in order to even consider a bluff. Sure, UTG will likely be wider 4 handed, but this isn't the spot to yolo her tournament life.
Throw all the charts and GTO reasoning you want... it is still a PUNT... The bet on the turn was enough to convince her she was behind... she stil had 33bb and was better off than 4-5 other players... with the turn bet, it was clear that Serock was never folding... it was a punt that will haunt her for life... sad to say...
100% true.
The bet on the turn is polarizing, which means it's either the nuts or nothing. She blocks two of the main nut hands (KK and QT) and unblocks all the bluffs. When you unblock bluffs with a condensed range and low SPR it's usually not bad to go all in. If villain is folding top pair here it's probably even better than what GTO says. The only reason it's even -EV in GTO is because it's just below the threshold for the hand strength (and blocker properties) to do it with.
@@jonathanhenderson9422 its just called a punt at this stage, its not about math, its just that its unnecessary to risk a lot of chips when you are not sure what utg player has and here is the proof; even if she won this pot and utg had nothing it was a bad play
@@rachadtarhini6201 Poker is always about math. Poker IS math. Talking about necessary/unnecessary is pretty silly in poker. All that matters is whether it's +/-EV. This play is slightly -EV in theory, and arguably +EV if you think villain will be overfolding. Maybe in ICM it's worse, but I don't know how much.
@jonathanhenderson9422 lol no not the nuts or nothing lol Ak Aj AA KK JJ KJ all play turn the same.
If everybody is out there giving there take on whether or not her play was the greatest punt ever or a ballsy play, you need only to look at her husbands face to know that deep down he wanted to say “don’t worry Rampage you did great!” His face says it all!!
Yes, 💯
he was in shock when he saw her hand
@@rachadtarhini6201 he couldn’t believe it either
He is probably contacting a divorce solicitor as we speak
LMFAO "Rampage"
I am a poker enthusiast. All i know is She has 30 bbs left if she folds, if she jams she will run into the top of his range sometimes but what does his AQ and A10 maybe even KJ do? They can’t love it. Either way it’s day 8 and she’s been under the lights for 3 days with all the pressure on her its easy to make a mental mistake (if this is one, I don’t know) and one mistake is enough to end the run
the other guy has already bet twice, and has more than double her stack. he is not folding.
They snap call...
you are correct. the key word is "pressure" got the better of her. normally she probly wouldnt play like that.
Kj is probable not gonna raise utg
Doug, please do a video about the ear piece. This could rock the foundations of poker.
Quick question, although im doubtful you’ll see this. I live in south Austin and haven’t yet made my way up to the lodge to check it out. Definitely planning to soon however and was curious if you had any plans to sit down in low stakes $1/2 to mix it up any time soon. I’ve been playing poker for a while but only recently started digging into the real intricacies needed to become an actual poker player. I’m sure the waitlist would be out the door but it would be awesome to mix it up and learn a few things. Anyway, keep pumping out great content, your hard work is immensely appreciated.
She played extremely well for 8 days and there were a lot of spots that she survived that many others wouldn't have. Sadly in the main all it takes is one mistake and that's it. Also it's probably easy to level yourself into thinking it's just the big stack abusing the FT bubble. Sad to see her go after spinning up from 5bb.
Her hand with Brian Kim before this is relevant to how this played out. Recommend people watch that to give this more context
The 11M bluff? Also poor
i haven't seen it posted.
@@cryptocomedy9327 Feel like you have to continue and barrel river repping the flush or not bluff pot (11m) at all on the turn. I can imagine that her read vs Kim was good but didn’t back it up on the river because of ICM & pressure, then overcompensated for it vs Serock.
@@FreddyKGthen her read wasn’t good because you don’t bluff the turn to then shut it down on the river.
she got too much praise for her bluff the day before and it got to her head.
her bluffs the day before were against weak players who showed weakness with multiple checks
She seemed to lose her tempo, timing and body language all at the wrong time in this hand. She never really looked at Serock or studied him for some reason like she had done so often in previous hands. Not sure what she picked up on or what her read was but it was clearly wrong. Based on her body language in this hand, there wasn't two seconds of doubt in Serock that he was ever behind. Bad story on Foxen's part equals epic punt.
@jamesp6805 I think she had to put him on a weak Ace. Like A2 through A9 suited combos. That would most likely fold to a chick. But yes as played he is never folding 2 pair or better here. Or even AQ.
A2 UTG he is folding pre flop, come on man !
@@rudistorm3348Weak ace isn't betting that big on this board OTT, you're targeting bottom two or flush draws
@@pokerfacelelivre for real, people hardly open A2 utg in 2/5 much less with 13 left in the ME
She had to think he had a weak ace. But I just don’t think he ever does when he bets so big on the turn. Weak aces bet smaller or check, only the big hands and bluffs bet big on this turn, so turning KQo into a bluff is not a winning play on this run out with the action.
I understand the desire to try to understand this hand. For me for most people at some point in a tournament your luck can just run out. Having watched much of the play, there were similar situations where she outflopped her opponent with the second best hand. Her aq vs ak for chip lead with 16 left is a similar situation. If the flop comes ace high, she probably goes out there. Instead she hits the queen on the flop. Sometimes you can just believe your luck is in. Why is there a need to solve a game which at limes requires huge amounts of luck. I was just surprised the 10 didn't hit on the river.
She was getting incredible amounts of luck at key times.
@@brianwillis8447 I understand there are so many great players out there, and she is clearly one of them. However what makes poker such a great game for me is, on any given day you can just be blessed. When it's happening to you, you push a little more because you feel something is working on your side. All the greats would tell you, if luck had not been on their side often, they probably would not be I the positions they are. You can play great all you like, but we have all seen AA getting cracked by AK. That could be the difference between becoming a poker great or not. Once you have the necessary funds you can simply keep going again and again.
19:08 there's a slight difference between QhTs and QsTh, I imagine it's blocking properties against front door/back door flushes? I am not sure why solver prefers one or the other though. And does solver prefer the opponent to have the Th, Ts or the Q variants? Interesting results
I just don't understand why she didn't check fold the turn.
I really think being featured for 3-4 days straight and all the high level poker caught up to her in a big way on this hand
Yeah I can see her calling flop bet but when a 10 doesn't come, check fold boo. You're beat.
@@Mordecai154 Yes exactly, it boggles my mind. Even aces beats her hand. She is a fantastic poker player, but this decision was so out of line, a true punt.
@@isaiahbaker6850 everyone is a victim to fame getting to your head
This is a huge ICM punt as a mid stack near the final table bubble.
I trust Doug's analysis over yours by a million miles. Easy when ur at home seeing all the hands with Cheeto dust on ur shirt
@@kylewhitmore304 yea and Doug just confirmed it was a bad bluff.solver says just call and solvers are super aggressive
@@Gos1234567 So then what happens on the river? If she blind shoves she loses the rest of her stack, if she check folds then she's "only" down a bit less than a third of her stack and in an even worse position. She played to win the tournament, representing both flush draws, a straight draw, and a made straight, and lost, rather than playing to not lose and almost certainly losing.
@@LucianDevine She folds and still has over 30 Bigs lol. It's not that hard to just let second pair go when Serlock has been showing up with hands all day
@@LucianDevineDon't listen to them bro, I'd love to have you on my final tables!
thank you for the logical, empathetic and funny review. She was playing to win and bluffed in the wrong spot.
That's the point. She bluffed into a range of hands that was mostly never folding in this spot.
She punted. Everyone is just being nice bc she is a female lmao. That was an epic PUNT
That is why you do not bluff in that spot to the opponent that raised prelop and both streets. "Playing to win" means nothing. That is what every player is trying to do and you can easily argue that was not the way to win. So yeah pretty bad arguments to defend a bad play.
It was a bad play and there were so many out there before getting sucked out on year after year. It is the WSOP, but this was a really really bad play as I stated more precisely in my comment here. One of the worst and brainless plays I´ve ever witnessed that late in the tournament. Medium size stack, six dudes pretty far behind in chip count, a all street better UTG, come on, this is not the spot. And we should not give more sympathy because she is a woman or more likeable than others, this was her fatal mistake and there are quite a few others in recent years who played pretty bad, but this play is amongst th top five in the last decade for sure.
nice way of saying she punted
I'd be curious to see a solve factoring in ICM. This is a pure call in chip EV according to the video, but it may not be in ICM-land. I also think ICM may shift our bluffs from more flush draw based to more blocker based. I think its possible this hand bluffs at some frequency if you factor in ICM. You probably bluff less often with ICM but getting folds becomes more important and binking a flush comparatively less important, so your bluffing range may shift more towards hands like this.
The problem is when we're the preflop caller, we DO NOT get to go crazy on AKx boards. We never have AA, KK or AK in our range and our opponent has all of them in their range. Here, as crazy as it sounds, we actually have to play AJ as a bluff catcher. KQ could call turn but it's perfectly fine to just fold it but not turn it into a bluff when we're at a clear range disadvantage. Was rooting for her and she played great overall but blundered this final hand. GG.
Definitely a punt, blunder. Foxen’s tell is clear: when she took a long time, she didn’t have a hand.
As good as your videos are Doug, the UTG opening range for the solver seems way too wide which is why it thinks JT is calling the shove which intuitively seems off to any human. Putting in a tighter range considering there's a covering stack on the Button vs the UTG probably fixes it.
I'd love it if she'd had 55 or QT or JJ, etc. She was BB so the initial call was fine. Serock seemed so sure he had it, it would have been great to see him surprised.
I am calling too in this spot...I still have chips left if I am wrong
Great commentary Doug! Well said and great wrap up.
Are you analyzing based on GTO only? My take was mainly around deviating due to the seemingly reduced bluffing frequency this close to FT. For me he is just not bluffing here. I mean UTG 4 away from the main FT, I imagine that bluffing frequencies for anyone other than the table chip leader is just tiny. His bet on the turn says " I am not bluffing" so I dunno, I thought she should have folded to preserve her tourney life. I do not think it's a punt but I also do not think she was taking into consideration the underbluffing that is being done at this stage of the tourney
The video begins with Doug not brushing his hair…
Looks better than the Selbst cut
nah thats just a bad haircut.
Why you worried about a grown man’s hair
Dude come on! Spoiler!
Mr.T called him and asked for royalties.
Every highlight of Kristen, she was shoving and getting people to fold. I think she went to that well once to much.
He had 2x her stack. If he has a flush or straight draw, he may call her bluff because he's still in it. She should be making those bluffs for the smaller stacks. It was clearly a punt. She was expecting him to just go away like the others did.
Correct. It works every time - until the last time.
"this guy" You don't know who Joe Serock is? He is by far the best player remaining in the field, and most accomplished. He had double her chip stack. Her shove on the turn was a blowup Scotty Nguyen, Mike Matusow, and Rampage would be proud of. One of the worst moves I have ever seen from a "professional" She literally gave away 2 million dollars. Her luck and card racking from this tournament finally ran out.
Did you even watch the video?
Been watching you for years liking your videos and just realized wasnt subscribed my bad. Your videos are great thanks
"What i learned from my past videos, is that you guys hate solver review. So, lets jump into some solver review."
Never change, Doug ❤
This is not remotely controversial. It is a massive punt. No one is allowed to disagree.
Intergalactic turbo punt sums it up.
I think this should be a video more about Doug's hair than the hand
it's a better look
He's going for the Tom Dwan look
His Vanessa days are over...
Great video. She pulled off moves like this prior. It worked. Won't work all the time though. Quiet often you only get to make one mistake in big tournaments. But we'll done Kristen.
As the tournament progresses to this stage, players become very cautious. Most players pay more attention to ICM (Independent Chip Model) pressure and avoid taking risks. However, Foxen chose to go all-in at this moment, possibly thinking that her all-in could push out many medium-strength hands from her opponents, such as middle pairs, weak aces, and even some two-pair hands. The expected value (EV) calculation considers not only the possibility of winning the pot but also the immediate gain from winning the pot when the opponent folds. If the opponent's calling range is very narrow, then this all-in EV could be very high, because the opponent would only call in very few situations and win.
In high-level competitions, psychological tactics are equally important. Foxen's aggressive action might be sending a message that she will not back down easily, forcing her opponents to be more cautious in future hands, thus creating more opportunities for her.
In conclusion, although Foxen's bluff did not succeed, this all-in decision was not without basis from a strategic and psychological perspective. In high-level poker tournaments, players often need to make bold decisions at critical moments to achieve the greatest benefit. Foxen's aggressive action is a manifestation of such high-level decisions. Although the result was not ideal, in the long run, this kind of strategy could yield high returns at the right time and against the right opponents.
You wrote a lot and it is bla bla bla Simple question what can she beat on a flop like that with utg raiser
@@deancorso4212 This is a 6-max table, and the UTG line shown here is quite polarized. Some hands like 8Ts, 9Ts, Q8s, Q9s, or even TT are possible with such actions, while our KQ blocks some of the opponent's nuts hands like AK, KK, QTs, and KJ. I don't think Foxen's KQ is particularly strong here, but it is still ahead of some hand combinations. Calling might be a bit of a stretch, but folding seems a bit of a waste. In this situation, turning this KQ into a bluff doesn't seem like a bad choice!
@@F61925 i think it is terrible play based on bet sequence...he is very strong here
You can say "well, that's how she made it that far to begin with" and you'd have a point, but I think at some point the money jumps (ICM) say to slow the eff down. She could have folded her way into the final table most likely....
That had more hang time than a Pat Mcafee punt. Impressive.
A punt that was worth 600K. How did you do yesterday? LOL
@Forgetaboutit166 most irrelevant comment in youtube history. Congrats!
@@Forgetaboutit166you mean a punt that cost her at least 400k and closer to a million in ICM value.
Especially when she played so tight in previous hands
And lost minimum
@@Forgetaboutit166she’s not gonna date you little fella. She’s married
Personal impression, I think it was just bad time for this particular move. As you showed, AKJ, even 5-handed, favors the UTG raiser's range as he's gonna hit this board fairly often. I'd kinda be interested in seeing what hands KQ still beats that are still supposed to fire ~80%pot on this turn after being called on flop. Obviously I'm not playing 13-left of the Main, but I think I'm releasing KQo after the turn bet. With our stack size he's gotta call ~25m to win ~63m if we shove, so we're not really even pricing out a lot of hands that beat us. I definitely think if we're gonna shove, flatting the turn then shoving the river when the 6h lands will probably work more often if we're aiming to make a move, but we also don't block any hearts, risking villain having those still. Again, I'm not in her spot, but I think I just release KQo here since even when I'm ahead, I'll still have to run against hands with tremendous equity against me, and my stack will still be strong enough to take advantage of a better spot.
That is on point, thank you for an expert analysis.
even disregarding icm, if you include bet sizing here, i’m pretty sure KQ is not a pure call on the turn… there would be a lot of folds from KQ that includes one spade and/or one heart
The fact we don't have a single player winning the event for many consecutives years (like tennis, swimming, chess, etc) means that luck play an important role. As for strategy, yeah, there are some but then again if it is not a disadvantage to deviate from strategy as one may be seen as being unpredictable.
Nice vid Doug and cool of you to stand up for the lady but no matter how you spin this, this is an intergalactic mega punt and will remain so until the end of time.😂
Facts
So I watched the ME in stages. I would monitor chip stakes and pop in and out. I saw the all in but didn’t continue. I went back to see how Serock got his chip stake up and I went back to see how Foxen got hers down. Serock is an animal. He played everyone. He came off as a loosey goosey person. Non chalant. I’m having fun, I’m listening to music, I’m wearing goofy glasses, nothing to see here. She mis read not the table, not the hands, HIM. This gets through on everyone BUT him. No one is giving him credit. Over the course of the tables, he’s been setting that exact play up with his demeanor. It’s not the hand. So it’s not a punt. She had in her mind she’s going to take him for a ride and hang a noose around his head. She made up her mind. And he set the traps way before that hand. Look at him with his glasses off just watching her. He sees her long blink and registers it. He knows she’s going over the top and he’s mentally prepared for it because she thinks he will fold. The face she makes isn’t at his cards, it’s at the fact that he calls so quickly. She realizes she was wrong about her read of him. Her and her husband were watching plays every night getting reads in people looking for right opportunities. They discussed who to bluff big and who not to.!he was one of them. She was happy he got a big stack, because in her mind he was basically the bank to her. They read HIM wrong not the cards
A great main event run spoiled by one of the worst late WSOP Main event moves in history
Scottys was worse a few years ago
Was thinking she played pretty decent and boom, one blunder and she was gone
The fact that she made it this far was the acting-out-of-term some hours earlier, where Foxen was saved from playing the JJ into KK that also turned a set of K's. While considering her actions next-to-act pushes AK all-in and KK quickly calls also somewhat out of term. This makes her obviously fold JJ. However without this situation, I am sure this would have been a very different outcome.
i think the range you gave the utg raiser in the solver is too loose but i might be wrong. i dont really see him opening hands like A8o or a lot of those junky suited hands.
She was trying to scare Serock with all that hollywood acting like chip counting, checking her hand as if she has Q10, and etc. While on the other hand Serock wasn't concerned at all and auto call her all-in shoved. What a punt!
His near snap call was great.
Such a bad semi-bluff by her. Major tell versus how she played all tournament. It was painfully obvious.
Serock had been opening all over the map so it would have been hard for her to really know where he was. He could have easily had T9 or J8.
@@dannytavoularis-oz9gm It wasn't a semi-bluff. She was almost dead against Serock's entire range
@@dkizxpt-su3ze I get that but she’s semi-bluffing with a piece versus a stone cold bluff holding nothing.
I saw very few folks double-barreling bluffs the entire ME (except Hellmuth's J5o bluff lol). They'd C-bet and that'd be it w/ a few rare river bluffs. So if he's barreling on the turn with huge size, it's likely he has something better than middle pair. Even his UTG raise would contain Ax esp on the bubble of the FT
"How does she know no one's bluffing the turn a bunch, she can't see the cards and isn't watching the streams..." These live streams all were on replay to watch at 2x speed
Not only when you consider the situation, the solver indicating it’s as pure a call as ever makes this a mega punt
Believe it or not I fold there just based off the read I'd have received.
"The solver" .... bro come on
@@Bang-bangBart If you're not using solvers you're way behind the playing field.
@@jakesteffan505 if you only rely on solvers then you aren't even playing on the same field as me
@@Bang-bangBart My biggest leak is not using solvers enough. Most of my winrate comes from my ability to spot bs when I see it. Of course there's a lot of math. Been playing for 22 years and am a winning player supporting myself with this game for a chunk of that time.
Finished 5th for a bracelet 2 years ago (im an avg player at best and came in with the chiplead at the FT), went out on a big semi bluff kinda like this, not gonna lie i have been thinking about it off and on since, your message at the end helped get some closure, it was secretly what i needed. Thanks for the videos doug, appreciate your analysis.
I think her head sweep to the right after the flop call was perceived as a tell that caused him to snap call the bluff. He'd already made the read that she was weak.
Serock looks like he only does lateral dumbbell raises.
Or lifts a lot of suitcases full of money onto the poker tables.....but good call.
ICM is a trap people fall into? That’s where the bulk of EV comes from in huge field tourneys.
That was an odd take from Doug.
@@seanupton709 You assume incorrectly. I don't agree with Doug's take on this. It was a punt of epic proportions.
ICM only works if other players are not playing ICM - like in most low stakes tournaments.
@@jimbojones9118 say what lol
They were streaming one of the hybrid events yesterday. 1 chip leader bullying everybody (Soritopoulous) +5 people folding 50 hands in a row because of "ICM." Sure, someone ends up laddering up.... but for some of those players they sit around folding for 2 hours just to finish in 4th or 5th place anyway.
@@genesises He is right,chip leaders can make a lot by raising almost any 2 on the stone bubble in tables with mid -low stacks because of ICM.But that wont work in a game where people dont give a crap about making the money
Doug 7 years ago I signed up for upswing and it helped me a lot so I have much respect for you. That being said, you butchered this video my man.
You can’t analyze the biggest ICM spot in the world without ICM, I understand that ICM ranges for this spot is not available even on Wizard which only supports 1000 entry tournaments preflop, so we are far from having post flop with icm for a 10k entry field, however, we can make educated guesses base on how the ranges differ from 200 field to 1000.
The fact of the matter is, the bigger the field size, the bigger the ICM impact when reaching final table bubble, this is a 10,000 field entry with 13 left. Not considering ICM in this spot is something Jerry Yang or Jamie Gold would do, not a top professional.
In a 1400 entry field like the 1k event 82, the pay jump from 13th to 9th is 10k to 16k. An increase of 6 buyins. In this situation sure, play for the bracelet who cares about a couple grand.
In the main event, from 13th to 9th is a whooping 40 buyin increase. Do you see the insane ICM pressure here? Let’s put this into perspective, if you play this event and have the run of a life time and placed 18/10000, you will only make 35 buyins.
I haven’t even factored in the prestige of being the 2nd woman ever to make a final table and the only one in 3 decades since the game has become mainstream.
Obviously, there is a lot more money on the side that she can make if she final tables being the only women who has done it in nearly 3 decade, and the 2nd overall. I don’t how much but I’m guessing a lot more than some random chick considering she’s a high-stakes crusher who is also very beautiful, a very attractive candidate for all the sponsors to fight after which would only increase her sponsorship deals even more.
Hope he sees this lil bro
You nailed it!!!
No mention of bluff size vs pot size ? My only thought was it might not have been big enough to be truly effective ? ? An honest question ...
Thanks Doug great analysis as always
She bluffed 2 guys off AJo on A-high board earlier in the tournament. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
they didnt double barrel they showed weakness
Wasn’t dry board one board was 4 card straight and other was paired board
@caliscratch-hunter OK I went back and you're right: When she bluffed 2 players with AJ on the A-high board there were 3 hearts on turn and rivered paired. I'll edit my OP.
@@Gos1234567 are we talking about this hand? th-cam.com/video/meAH7nQYQzE/w-d-xo.html
Most unnecessary punt of all time, without question. It’s actually mind blowing she thought that was the right call to make, ESPECIALLY with an Ace out there. 😂
Crazy how many losing players are down here pretending to have a better grasp on mtt poker than foxen. You should go play the main event next year. If she could get this far there is no way you wouldn’t stand to take the whole thing
@@victorlicata9103 Reddit is that way --> Go simp somewhere else, homie.
@@victorlicata9103here is a grasp for you.... good players don't put it all in with just middle pair on a dripping wet connected board.
Doug, I love the "Simple Jack" hairstyle you went with.😊
you ma-ma-ma make me happyy!
Hey Doug, dont forget about MDF. The solver calls JT because its trying to meet the minimum defense frequency , even though the call might be -ev
Great analysis of this one. The only thing I don't like about her play was she picked a spot with such a bad range disadvantage, but maybe she thought he'd know that and it would help her bluff.
Had she done this with 4 or 5 tables to try to eye the final table in chips yes it's not so bad. But with a healthy stack you gotta fold the turn IMO... The ICM in the main event here with 13 left is just insane...
fold turn is probably a bigger blunder than shoving...
@@antihackerify You're kidding, right?
@@antihackerify cmon bro,doug actually even put in a very wide range for Serock
@@dkizxpt-su3ze no, i think maybe at the solver, folding would make you lose more EV than shoving, gotta see the solver there .
@@Gos1234567 The range Doug put in is bullshit
Imagine the difference in tone this video would have if this move was made by Matt Berkey.
Under rated comment haha
Or Hellmuth
They would be FLAMING HIM
Wouldn't you have a different tone if it comes to someone you dislike vs someone you dont ? That's just human nature
@@Bang-bangBart Not if you are claiming to be an objective analyst.
Here’s the issue, his value range for double barreling this spot is extremely strong, he’s not showing up with a hand like AQ here… so she’s either ahead or bluffing into 2 pair+ that isn’t going to fold, so outside of denying equity to his bluffs this shove doesn’t accomplish anything
Solver says he's double-barreling way weaker shit than AQo. He's not such a nit that he has zero bluffs here
@@longhornsforeva Solver says that solvers do this,not most humans
@@longhornsforeva idc what solver says he’s 100% checking back or betting small hands like AQ or A10. I watched him play for 2 days, he wasn’t getting out of line at ALL, he made one semi bluff on a turn card that heavily favored his range. So A) I don’t think he has many bluffs B) even if he does we’re still ahead of those while folding virtually NONE of his double barreling value, i.e the shove accomplishes nothing other then denying equity from bluffs, which Makes it a massive punt
Solvers are crazy @@longhornsforeva
Thr main thing i didnt like about Foxxen's timing on that bluff was the two hearts on the board. I kept thinking to myself.."dont do it...he will call bc he thinks you are on a draw with maybe 1 pair".
I'm more interested in knowing what Seroc think he was calling against. He didn't even hesitate. Why did he think it not possible for Foxen to have made a straight on the flop?
We finally going to get a laid back Stoner to win the main?
You know who I’m pulling for, It’s 4:20 somewhere 😂
Serock or Åstedt?
@@Chronicseedsinc Serocks Stoner Village dude!
🙏
@@jonathanhansson804 Serock
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Any guy wearing that t-shirt/vest "thing" along with funky glasses is NEVER folding an Ace let alone two pair.
No smart player is ever folding top two pair there. The pot was massive and it was only 21 more bbs to call
He's a bracelet winner and accomplished player lol. Good read though
Serock has made multiple WPT final tables, he is not a guy to donk bluff against.
@afdkj The point is he isnt some rando you can just assign some dumb stereotype too like OP said. He's a very competent player
@afdkj Didn't know til now but he's also made multiple wpt final tables as well
What do you guys think about mixing in some folds on the turn? I know the solver favours calling but if you call and miss then you check and Serock is jamming then you have 2 fold and you wasted what half your stack on the turn call?
Hell of a run but missed the curve at the end of the road. How many chances do you get to make a final table in the main event? Sitting sixth with 13 players left I just think there would have been many better opportunities to get your money in. Doesn't take away from a heck of a performance but it must burn.