⏩Watch This Next ⏪The Orange County Housing Market Is In TROUBLE - th-cam.com/video/HdkaPFCInd4/w-d-xo.html ✅Huntington Beach Communities ✅ - www.jebsmith.net/communities
either prices have to collapse or mortgage rates drop back to 3%. The fed has indicated it's willingness to hold rates where they are for over a year, and then slowly drop them. This is on top of a stagnant market for the past year , plateauing in many areas. My bet is that prices fall 20-30% nation wide with some areas hit harder and some hardly at all, as is standard of such a variety of markets. This could be spurred on by innumerable things, and to think the gravy train upward will never experience another bust cycle is fantastical thinking, making the 08 run up look like small gains. why am I reminded of the quote "it's hard to make a man understand something when his salary is completely dependent on him not understanding it", something like that.
Actually NEITHER of those have to happen. There's still been 3.79M sales with rates at current levels. That said, housing affordability will improve but primarily through lower rates and wage growth over time. It ALWAYS comes back to supply and demand and right now there's ZERO data to support anything close to what you're calling for, Sorry!
I've never deleted any comments. In fact, you should go back to 2020 on my other channel (youtube.com/@jebsmith) and watch videos from then and read the comments. It's funny, none of those people show up any more.
@@jebsmithhb Im going to guess they said "there's no way well have a 40% run up in housing prices in 3 years nationwide while wages lie relatively stagnant" and what do you know, we did. i don't particularly think this will be sustainable. wages did go up substantially for the lowest wage earners which skewed the entire picture. but if 50 million people go from making 7.25$ to 12.50 per hour, that's still 50 million who will never afford a house, and it makes it look like we've got good average wage growth. 50k to 60k salary cant keep up with 300k to 450k house price
In my opinion, nothing will "give" until you see supply increase in a meaningful way. Prices are driven by supply and demand as you know and supply isn't likely to change in way that would impact prices anytime in the near future..............Just my 2 cents.
Prices are already falling in Arizona, Texas, Florida, Idaho, San Francisco and more. It's only a matter of time until prices start falling significantly in Orange County.
I'm confused how people can't understand basic economics and data......It's a real simple equation but yet everyone wants to throw their own "biases" and "hopes" into the equation. Fortunately, the numbers don't lie. It always comes back to supply and demand.
@@jebsmithhb What part of this do you not agree with? "Prices are already falling in Arizona, Texas, Florida, Idaho, San Francisco and more. It's only a matter of time until prices start falling significantly in Orange County."
The median household income in OC is $100k but the median price of a house is more than 10 times that amount. That is called a bubble and whenever there is a bubble there will always be a crash. No exceptions. And the longer they kick the can down the road, the bigger the crash. You'll see.
As long as there are more buyers than there are sellers then the market will continue to do what it's been doing. RJust because you or someone you know can't afford it, doesn't mean someone else can't. Everyone likes to think that everyone is in the same position as them and that's simply not the case. I've been told for the better part of my career that house prices were too high here and they would crash as they've more than doubled during that period of time. Housing affordability is an issue but that in no way means a crash has to happen. There are 3 pieces that make up housing affordability and prices is only one leg of that stool. The other 2 are wages and rates both which will continue to improve which will help housing affordability.
@LivingInHuntingtonBeachCA I just proved to you that wages in OC DOES NOT keep up with housing prices. Just because you have been profiting from real estate does not mean it will always be that way. I know a man who talked just like you in 2005 when he made millions flipping homes. He used to live in a 6,000 square foot home. Ever since 2008 crash, he never did recover and has been driving for Uber and Lyft. Sure, there are always people with money but they are becoming less and less. In case you don't know, the U.S. economy (indeed the entire world's) are shrinking. Credit debt now exceeds $1 trillion. If people have money, they wouldn't owe on their credit card, would they? Car repossessions are climbing. Student loan debt became due just last month. Since 2021, over 400,000 computer engineers had been laid off. These are high wage earners ($150k - $200k) that could afford to buy homes. You are ignoring the economic fundamentals because easy money made you feel invincible.
@@jebsmithhb BTW, since few people are buying homes right now due to high interest rates, guess what who loan officers are serving? People who refinance. Huh, you say? Why would anyone who had snagged a 3% interest rate refinance into a 7 - 8% mortgage? Low supply because no one wants to let go of their 3% interest rate, right? Wrong! They refinance to pay off their 25% credit card interest rate - no choice! Over $1 trillion credit card debt proves that people are tapped out. They are beginning to apply for HELOC or refinance altogrther. Again, your supply and demand argument is unraveling.
BREAKING: The income needed to afford a typical home in the US hits a record 41.4% in 2023. This is up from 21.1% in 2012 and 28.5% in 2020, according to Redfin. On a POST-TAX basis, homebuyers are spending nearly 60% of their income on home payments. A homebuyer would need to make at least $110,000 per year to spend 30% or less of their income on home payments.
Question: why ARE those 800 or so $2M+ homes (roughly 1/3 of inventory) sitting on the market for anywhere from 5 to 12 months. I’m not a real estate professional I don’t always understand the behavior of real estate markets, but this does not seem very rational to me. I realize it’s not like going to a farmers market and having a choice of 5 different vendors for essentially an identical box of strawberries. I would certainly appreciate some perspective because it would seem if they really wanted to sell these homes then the lack of demand should price them where they can be sold. “ Are these would be “sellers” irrationally holding out for some high price that they may never get, or hoping prices will go even higher? I can’t imagine too many people with houses in this price range are likely to be upside down on them, given the huge increase in real estate values the last several years. Anyway, I do appreciate you posting this educational video and I have liked and subscribed 😀
That's a great question............Traditionally the luxury market always runs significantly longer when it comes to days on market than the lower price ranges. The primary reason is there are just less buyers in that price range, therefore less demand. That would lead you to believe they are overpriced when in fact they may not be as it's known that most luxury homes don't sell immediately and many times it's a specific buyer looking for a specific home (location, design, style, etc...). On top of that, many of these sellers aren't in a position where they have to sell therefore they can wait and see what the market bears when it comes to price. Those that need to do something will have to reduce but that's not often the case. Luxury is a different animal entirely and hard to compare to a more "normal" market. Thanks for the like and sub
Interest rate will move sideways while home prices and inflation move sideways, mean while the government will increase wages to make things affordable and “hide “ inflation . But government really loves these higher prices, which means we pay double digits for goods , while they collect taxes at the same rate but with higher prices which mean more tax money to their pockets.
Interest rates are already coming down as is inflation......On top of that, the gov't doesn't control wages. For the better part of 10 years, the gov't couldn't get us to 2% inflation so the likelihood that inflation stays high would very low based on history. Contrary to popular belief, the gov't isn't out to get you.
⏩Watch This Next ⏪The Orange County Housing Market Is In TROUBLE - th-cam.com/video/HdkaPFCInd4/w-d-xo.html
✅Huntington Beach Communities ✅ - www.jebsmith.net/communities
either prices have to collapse or mortgage rates drop back to 3%. The fed has indicated it's willingness to hold rates where they are for over a year, and then slowly drop them. This is on top of a stagnant market for the past year , plateauing in many areas. My bet is that prices fall 20-30% nation wide with some areas hit harder and some hardly at all, as is standard of such a variety of markets. This could be spurred on by innumerable things, and to think the gravy train upward will never experience another bust cycle is fantastical thinking, making the 08 run up look like small gains. why am I reminded of the quote "it's hard to make a man understand something when his salary is completely dependent on him not understanding it", something like that.
Actually NEITHER of those have to happen. There's still been 3.79M sales with rates at current levels. That said, housing affordability will improve but primarily through lower rates and wage growth over time. It ALWAYS comes back to supply and demand and right now there's ZERO data to support anything close to what you're calling for, Sorry!
@@jebsmithhb dont delete this video or these comments if your a man of you're word. one of us will be right
I've never deleted any comments. In fact, you should go back to 2020 on my other channel (youtube.com/@jebsmith) and watch videos from then and read the comments. It's funny, none of those people show up any more.
@@jebsmithhb Im going to guess they said "there's no way well have a 40% run up in housing prices in 3 years nationwide while wages lie relatively stagnant" and what do you know, we did. i don't particularly think this will be sustainable. wages did go up substantially for the lowest wage earners which skewed the entire picture. but if 50 million people go from making 7.25$ to 12.50 per hour, that's still 50 million who will never afford a house, and it makes it look like we've got good average wage growth. 50k to 60k salary cant keep up with 300k to 450k house price
These prices are so unsustainable, out of reality! Something will give soon and it's not going to be pretty!
In my opinion, nothing will "give" until you see supply increase in a meaningful way. Prices are driven by supply and demand as you know and supply isn't likely to change in way that would impact prices anytime in the near future..............Just my 2 cents.
Prices are already falling in Arizona, Texas, Florida, Idaho, San Francisco and more. It's only a matter of time until prices start falling significantly in Orange County.
🤦♂️
@@jebsmithhb From your reaction it looks like you are confused. What part are you confused about?
I'm confused how people can't understand basic economics and data......It's a real simple equation but yet everyone wants to throw their own "biases" and "hopes" into the equation. Fortunately, the numbers don't lie. It always comes back to supply and demand.
@@jebsmithhb
What part of this do you not agree with?
"Prices are already falling in Arizona, Texas, Florida, Idaho, San Francisco and more. It's only a matter of time until prices start falling significantly in Orange County."
Plenty of 2 bedroom units on the market in South OC, if you have more than one kid and make less than $200k, youre screwed…
The median household income in OC is $100k but the median price of a house is more than 10 times that amount.
That is called a bubble and whenever there is a bubble there will always be a crash.
No exceptions.
And the longer they kick the can down the road, the bigger the crash.
You'll see.
As long as there are more buyers than there are sellers then the market will continue to do what it's been doing. RJust because you or someone you know can't afford it, doesn't mean someone else can't. Everyone likes to think that everyone is in the same position as them and that's simply not the case.
I've been told for the better part of my career that house prices were too high here and they would crash as they've more than doubled during that period of time. Housing affordability is an issue but that in no way means a crash has to happen.
There are 3 pieces that make up housing affordability and prices is only one leg of that stool. The other 2 are wages and rates both which will continue to improve which will help housing affordability.
@LivingInHuntingtonBeachCA I just proved to you that wages in OC DOES NOT keep up with housing prices.
Just because you have been profiting from real estate does not mean it will always be that way.
I know a man who talked just like you in 2005 when he made millions flipping homes.
He used to live in a 6,000 square foot home.
Ever since 2008 crash, he never did recover and has been driving for Uber and Lyft.
Sure, there are always people with money but they are becoming less and less.
In case you don't know, the U.S. economy (indeed the entire world's) are shrinking.
Credit debt now exceeds $1 trillion. If people have money, they wouldn't owe on their credit card, would they?
Car repossessions are climbing.
Student loan debt became due just last month.
Since 2021, over 400,000 computer engineers had been laid off. These are high wage earners ($150k - $200k) that could afford to buy homes.
You are ignoring the economic fundamentals because easy money made you feel invincible.
@@jebsmithhb BTW, since few people are buying homes right now due to high interest rates, guess what who loan officers are serving?
People who refinance.
Huh, you say?
Why would anyone who had snagged a 3% interest rate refinance into a 7 - 8% mortgage?
Low supply because no one wants to let go of their 3% interest rate, right?
Wrong!
They refinance to pay off their 25% credit card interest rate - no choice!
Over $1 trillion credit card debt proves that people are tapped out.
They are beginning to apply for HELOC or refinance altogrther.
Again, your supply and demand argument is unraveling.
@@andyhughes1776 100%!
Domino's dancing by the pet shop boys and opportunities
Subscribed! As a native HBer who had to leave to find more a affordable market, it's interesting to hear about where things might be headed.
Awesome! Thank you!
Want to have to wait until 2025
BREAKING: The income needed to afford a typical home in the US hits a record 41.4% in 2023. This is up from 21.1% in 2012 and 28.5% in 2020, according to Redfin. On a POST-TAX basis, homebuyers are spending nearly 60% of their income on home payments. A homebuyer would need to make at least $110,000 per year to spend 30% or less of their income on home payments.
Question: why ARE those 800 or so $2M+ homes (roughly 1/3 of inventory) sitting on the market for anywhere from 5 to 12 months.
I’m not a real estate professional I don’t always understand the behavior of real estate markets, but this does not seem very rational to me.
I realize it’s not like going to a farmers market and having a choice of 5 different vendors for essentially an identical box of strawberries.
I would certainly appreciate some perspective because it would seem if they really wanted to sell these homes then the lack of demand should price them where they can be sold. “
Are these would be “sellers” irrationally holding out for some high price that they may never get, or hoping prices will go even higher? I can’t imagine too many people with houses in this price range are likely to be upside down on them, given the huge increase in real estate values the last several years.
Anyway, I do appreciate you posting this educational video and I have liked and subscribed 😀
That's a great question............Traditionally the luxury market always runs significantly longer when it comes to days on market than the lower price ranges. The primary reason is there are just less buyers in that price range, therefore less demand. That would lead you to believe they are overpriced when in fact they may not be as it's known that most luxury homes don't sell immediately and many times it's a specific buyer looking for a specific home (location, design, style, etc...). On top of that, many of these sellers aren't in a position where they have to sell therefore they can wait and see what the market bears when it comes to price. Those that need to do something will have to reduce but that's not often the case. Luxury is a different animal entirely and hard to compare to a more "normal" market. Thanks for the like and sub
Thank you for the very enlightening and professional explanation. Keep up the good work
Interest rate will move sideways while home prices and inflation move sideways, mean while the government will increase wages to make things affordable and “hide “ inflation . But government really loves these higher prices, which means we pay double digits for goods , while they collect taxes at the same rate but with higher prices which mean more tax money to their pockets.
Interest rates are already coming down as is inflation......On top of that, the gov't doesn't control wages. For the better part of 10 years, the gov't couldn't get us to 2% inflation so the likelihood that inflation stays high would very low based on history. Contrary to popular belief, the gov't isn't out to get you.
20 25
2025