Solid advice for once. I have found most TH-cam horse racing videos to be useless. I was taught that when you study a horse's form, don't ask the question, can this horse win today? instead, ask why can't it win today? It is that old saying, " that a chain is only as strong as its weakest link". All the best from England.
Thank you for your kind words, delighted to hear that you found the advice valuable. Your approach to studying a horse's form is insightful and aligns with a thorough and critical analysis, which is essential in horse racing. Indeed, identifying potential weaknesses or barriers to a horse's success can be just as enlightening as recognizing its strengths. It's a method that encourages a deeper understanding of the dynamics at play in each race. Wishing you continued success in your horse racing endeavors from across the pond in England! All the best to you!
@@horseplayeronedge9286 Well thank you for your reply. Approach the form from different angles, I like that. I look forward to watching your other videos. Best wishes to you too.
@@ianchefking5416 Good angle Ian. Another question I ask is, " Could this horse be targeted for this race today?" Horses are run for the owner's benefit, not the punter's benefit. It is hard trying to second guess what the connections are up to sometimes.
@@garythompson9452 but do you know that’s the other question I was going to ask instead, lol Agree, we can have the best handicapping Principles and formula in the game, there is, best speed ratings, most in-depth analysts. Knowing if a horse is well meant, is the deciding factor between winning and losing, no matter how much work we put in or how well we cover our bases...Here’s a tip for you and fella horse players, my specialty is 2yo, 3yos and G1s, all races that call for trainers to try, almost every single time they go post-ward. Except you’re a Bob Baffert who at times appear to play games, when having multiple entries in 2yo and 3yo races, the intentions are usually clear with 2yos. Since they should break their maiden, to get to the next level, like the serious G1 Breeders Cup races. Once they turn 3yos, except for some Elite Trainers, who spot them conservatively, as a conditioning strategy, i do believe the new point system keeps them honest. The reason why G1s will always be my race of choice to take risk...this one is simple, with all the big money and prestige on the line, the belief is, every trainer is trying 100%, those races are their target goal, all year and the reasons owners pony up the big money in the first place, buying the best quality stock to compete, in BC and Triple Crown races. How yuh like much? Lol
Sounds good in theory some solid advice but a drawback would be your not going to fing too many price horses with your analysis your going to land on a lot of chalk and or short priced horses you can't survive in this game long term betting chalk and short price horses you have to be able to smoke out some prices also overcoming the takeout in horseracing is very hard to overcome long term only a very small percentage of people are able to do it long term
Your points are valid, and you've highlighted an essential aspect of handicapping and betting, especially in horse racing. While elimination handicapping can help identify likely contenders, it might lead to favoring more popular or lower-priced horses, commonly referred to as "chalk." Betting solely on favorites or short-priced horses can indeed present challenges in achieving long-term profitability due to the lower potential for significant returns. To address this concern and pursue more value, horseplayers often incorporate additional strategies or factors into their handicapping approach. Here are some ways to enhance your strategy and potentially identify more lucrative opportunities: 1. **Spotting Value Plays:** - Look for horses or teams that might be undervalued by the betting public. This could involve assessing factors that are not immediately evident or taking advantage of misjudgments in the market. 2. **Understand the Odds:** - Develop a good understanding of odds and probability. Sometimes, the odds offered on a particular horse may not accurately reflect its true chances of winning. Identifying discrepancies between your assessment and the odds can lead to value opportunities. 3. **Consider Exotic Bets:** - Instead of only focusing on win bets, explore exotic bets like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. These wagers often involve predicting the order of multiple finishers, and finding value in these markets can lead to more substantial payouts. 4. **Pay Attention to Long Shots:** - While not every long shot is a viable option, occasionally, there are horses or teams with underrated potential. Assessing specific conditions, recent improvements, or other factors that the public might overlook can help you identify long shots with value. 5. **Stay Informed on Market Moves:** - Monitor changes in odds and betting patterns. Sudden shifts in the market might indicate insider information or a change in sentiment, providing clues for potential value plays. 6. **Evaluate Different Bet Types:** - Explore different bet types and strategies, such as value betting, where you seek to find bets with positive expected value over the long term. 7. **Bankroll Management:** - Implement effective bankroll management to ensure you can withstand losses and remain in the game. This involves determining the size of your bets based on your overall bankroll. 8. **Adaptability:** - Be adaptable in your approach. Conditions in horse racing change, and being open to adjusting your strategy based on new information is crucial. 9. **Learn from Experience:** - Keep track of your bets, outcomes, and the reasoning behind your decisions. Learning from both successes and mistakes can help you refine your approach over time. While overcoming the takeout and consistently finding value in betting markets is undoubtedly challenging, combining solid handicapping with a strategic approach to value can improve your chances of long-term success. Remember that no strategy guarantees wins, and responsible Bankroll Management practices are essential for longevity in the betting game.
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Solid advice for once. I have found most TH-cam horse racing videos to be useless. I was taught that when you study a horse's form, don't ask the question, can this horse win today? instead, ask why can't it win today? It is that old saying, " that a chain is only as strong as its weakest link". All the best from England.
Thank you for your kind words, delighted to hear that you found the advice valuable. Your approach to studying a horse's form is insightful and aligns with a thorough and critical analysis, which is essential in horse racing. Indeed, identifying potential weaknesses or barriers to a horse's success can be just as enlightening as recognizing its strengths. It's a method that encourages a deeper understanding of the dynamics at play in each race.
Wishing you continued success in your horse racing endeavors from across the pond in England! All the best to you!
@@horseplayeronedge9286 Well thank you for your reply. Approach the form from different angles, I like that. I look forward to watching your other videos. Best wishes to you too.
- Instead, how about this question, is this horse ready today?
@@ianchefking5416 Good angle Ian. Another question I ask is, " Could this horse be targeted for this race today?" Horses are run for the owner's benefit, not the punter's benefit. It is hard trying to second guess what the connections are up to sometimes.
@@garythompson9452 but do you know that’s the other question I was going to ask instead, lol
Agree, we can have the best handicapping Principles and formula in the game, there is, best speed ratings, most in-depth analysts. Knowing if a horse is well meant, is the deciding factor between winning and losing, no matter how much work we put in or how well we cover our bases...Here’s a tip for you and fella horse players, my specialty is 2yo, 3yos and G1s, all races that call for trainers to try, almost every single time they go post-ward. Except you’re a Bob Baffert who at times appear to play games, when having multiple entries in 2yo and 3yo races, the intentions are usually clear with 2yos. Since they should break their maiden, to get to the next level, like the serious G1 Breeders Cup races. Once they turn 3yos, except for some Elite Trainers, who spot them conservatively, as a conditioning strategy, i do believe the new point system keeps them honest. The reason why G1s will always be my race of choice to take risk...this one is simple, with all the big money and prestige on the line, the belief is, every trainer is trying 100%, those races are their target goal, all year and the reasons owners pony up the big money in the first place, buying the best quality stock to compete, in BC and Triple Crown races. How yuh like much? Lol
Good stuff!
Thanks!
Sounds good in theory some solid advice but a drawback would be your not going to fing too many price horses with your analysis your going to land on a lot of chalk and or short priced horses you can't survive in this game long term betting chalk and short price horses you have to be able to smoke out some prices also overcoming the takeout in horseracing is very hard to overcome long term only a very small percentage of people are able to do it long term
Your points are valid, and you've highlighted an essential aspect of handicapping and betting, especially in horse racing. While elimination handicapping can help identify likely contenders, it might lead to favoring more popular or lower-priced horses, commonly referred to as "chalk." Betting solely on favorites or short-priced horses can indeed present challenges in achieving long-term profitability due to the lower potential for significant returns.
To address this concern and pursue more value, horseplayers often incorporate additional strategies or factors into their handicapping approach. Here are some ways to enhance your strategy and potentially identify more lucrative opportunities:
1. **Spotting Value Plays:**
- Look for horses or teams that might be undervalued by the betting public. This could involve assessing factors that are not immediately evident or taking advantage of misjudgments in the market.
2. **Understand the Odds:**
- Develop a good understanding of odds and probability. Sometimes, the odds offered on a particular horse may not accurately reflect its true chances of winning. Identifying discrepancies between your assessment and the odds can lead to value opportunities.
3. **Consider Exotic Bets:**
- Instead of only focusing on win bets, explore exotic bets like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. These wagers often involve predicting the order of multiple finishers, and finding value in these markets can lead to more substantial payouts.
4. **Pay Attention to Long Shots:**
- While not every long shot is a viable option, occasionally, there are horses or teams with underrated potential. Assessing specific conditions, recent improvements, or other factors that the public might overlook can help you identify long shots with value.
5. **Stay Informed on Market Moves:**
- Monitor changes in odds and betting patterns. Sudden shifts in the market might indicate insider information or a change in sentiment, providing clues for potential value plays.
6. **Evaluate Different Bet Types:**
- Explore different bet types and strategies, such as value betting, where you seek to find bets with positive expected value over the long term.
7. **Bankroll Management:**
- Implement effective bankroll management to ensure you can withstand losses and remain in the game. This involves determining the size of your bets based on your overall bankroll.
8. **Adaptability:**
- Be adaptable in your approach. Conditions in horse racing change, and being open to adjusting your strategy based on new information is crucial.
9. **Learn from Experience:**
- Keep track of your bets, outcomes, and the reasoning behind your decisions. Learning from both successes and mistakes can help you refine your approach over time.
While overcoming the takeout and consistently finding value in betting markets is undoubtedly challenging, combining solid handicapping with a strategic approach to value can improve your chances of long-term success. Remember that no strategy guarantees wins, and responsible Bankroll Management practices are essential for longevity in the betting game.