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How Lucky Is This Octopath Traveler World Record Speedrun?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ต.ค. 2022
- This Octopath Traveler speedrun is very lucky, here's why.
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Special thanks:
Quadraaceps, for helping me write this script and allowing me to showcase his amazing run.
/ quadraaceps
/ @quadraaceps
Watch the full Switch WR run here:
• (World Record w/ Comme...
Blueser, for his quote on cait spawns:
/ blueser
TL_Plexa, for calculating several individual chances in this run:
/ tl_plexa
/ @tl_plexa
Z3R01337, for some of the encounter data shown in this video:
/ z3r01337
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Check out the Octopath Traveler speedrunning discord!
/ discord
Resources:
Item List + Path Action Formulas:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Encounter Dice Rolls:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Octopath Speedrun Master Document:
docs.google.com/document/d/1P...
Octopath Speedrun Site:
octopath.speedruns.wiki/Main_...
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Music:
Sevii Islands Theme - Pokemon Fire Red/Leaf Green
Spencer's Place - Final Fantasy Mystic Quest
To The End of the Abyss - Final Fantasy X
Team Aqua/Magma Hideout - Pokemon R/S/E
Deck Build - Yu-Gi-Oh: Forbidden Memories
Labyrinth of Time - Final Fantasy XIII - 2
OBNS Building - Pokemon XD Gale of Darkness
Owl Forest - Dark Cloud
Synchronous Drive - Final Fantasy XIII - 2
Temple of The Grand Tree - CrossCode
Forbidden Land - Legend of Dragoon
Treasure Sleeping In The Sand - Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles
SMT V - World of Shadows
Hey do me a favor and comment below if you stayed hydrated during the video
Edit: It looks like I messed up the overall probability number with encounters. That’s on me. Plexa (the math PhD) was only responsible for the individual encounter percentages derived from his formulas in the spreadsheet I provided
So remember folks, gamer math is dangerous and always check your work!
Does coffee count?
Unfortunately, I dehydrated and died during the video
I did, cheers
drank 40 beers and ate some gabagool
I did, great video!
Off topic but the squirrel enemy in this game has an attack called "these nuts". Upon seeing it I had to fight another squirrel to make sure I wasn't seeing anything
The localization for Octopath is honestly incredible
How did I not notice that
You saw these nuts
Wait there's a Squirrel enemy?
There's also a pirate skeleton mob named Davy Bones, this game is just chefs kiss
Couldn't follow instructions and consumed concrete, fully dehydrated, I am now powder.
The funny thing is, Galdera% isn’t even the longest run. There’s the All Side Stories route which, as you'd expect, completes all of the side stories and needs an extra hour and a half of things going right to get the record. But thanks for covering this game and the speedrun, both deserve a fair bit more attention than they get
Glad to see Octo being showcased in a content creator video. Would highly recommend the speedrun/community if people want to try short ish ~1 hour speedruns
(The single story runs are about a quarter of the Galdera run's time, so it's pretty inviting for an RPG speedrun, and it still goes from game start to credits with nice safety saves on each screen transition.)
hey, nice to see you again in an Octopath video!!! by the way a new trailer for Octopath Traveler 2 came out yesterday if you haven't seen it yet. Also I don't know if you intend to speed run the new game again, but i'm planning to create another spreadsheet for it, since you're so kind with people if you want early access to that future spreadsheet, let me know if you're interested and i'll give you a link before anyone else. This might help you save time searching for speccific stuff in the game.
@@Marcv1285 Ah, I'm good, but thanks. I plan to get it upon release and would like to take my time to enjoy it casually, by which point I suspect a lot of data miners and spreadsheet makers like yourself will have released stuff. Ideally, I want to avoid reading anything until I've beaten whatever Galdera-equivalent is in the game, and that can take me weeks/months casually. But I'll link to your stuff if people ask me, as I always have. (Still point to your Steam achievement stuff for all chests, weaknesses, etc when asked by ppl.)
i thought octopath traveller was a splatoon dlc when i first heard of it
Thank you, this made me laugh harder than it should have
Congrats Doc, you convinced me to go back and play through Octopath Traveler one more time. I never did finish it the first time I played (dunno why, I think there was just so much coming out that I lost focus), but now I wanna check out some of these strats to see how they could make my life easier even as a casual player.
I worked on a playthrough using some of these strats and honestly they’re game changing. Glad to inspire!
Same, I had played and replayed Octopath so many times but never finished. At least now over the course of three fricking years I’ve made it to Galdera
The process behind putting these speed runs together is almost more impressive than the actual runs, amazing stuff.
I'm a HUGE fan of Octopath but I've never actually heard any strategies for or watched anything speedrun related in it till this Video and just... Just wow. Like I am absolutely flabbergasted by the sheer combination of luck and strategy at play here.
i was hydrated :)
Fun Fact: Quadraa is also the world record holder in Xenoblade 2 any% Normal, and plays on other languages in order to get better at those languages.
ah, that would explain the profile pic
You’re telling me I could’ve beaten this game in under 4 hours instead of 2 months 😭
Amazing video though, I’m so happy to see some spotlight for Octopath, especially with Octopath 2 coming out soon! Keep up the amazing work!
the only trade off being you have to study the game and route for 6 months to beat it in under 4 hours lmaooo
@@James-oj8jk not to mention its still a luck based 4 hours meaning even with all the studies you can still fail
What a freaking amazing video doc!!! I also really loved all the small little edits for "headnotes" and "attention notes" or how you call it. There were muliple note pop ups I really enjoyed swellL And I was hydrated during the video :3
How do people manage to pull these off? Forget monks and whatever else: THESE are avatars of TRUE patience!
Also, yes: hydrated!
This video looks fantastic, I really like all the editing and production you put into your work.
I stayed hydrated when watching, looking forward to what's next!
finally a speedrun video that actually explains and not just throws character names expecting me to know
Another great video Doc!! Love the work put into it!
I really love Octopath Traveler and can't wait for the sequel!
Did you buy the sequel? :)
It's awesome!!!
@@PresidentEvil2 Bought it on day one and played it a bit over 100 hours. Too bad that it didn't get the same hype as the first one even though it is much better
I am staying hydrated, moisturized, and in my line. Also enjoying Doc crushing another speedrun essay!
If only Jade Cocoon was popular, it'd have been nice to see a video of that genre upon how the WR got ultimately improved upon a very lucky RNG episode, on top of having to be precise upon glitch execution. Nice video, looking forward to some more.
I hope Quad runs Octopath II. It's so interesting watching his speedruns
So I'm listening to this as I do my job overnight at work, and I was enjoying it immensely, then I heard something familiar that made me stop and type this up. Dark Cloud music. This was such a fun video to listen to, but music from an underrated gem, and one of my personal favorite games from my childhood? Made it even better! Thanks for the content!
I love this video! I never knew about all of this before, and i always love seeing people talk abt my fav game. This was very well done!
Thanks! I easily put over 100 hours into the game after release, so it was nice to revisit and highlight the speedrunning community of an amazing game
Good god your editing is so good
brb getting hydration
So many nice collections and beautiful visualizations!
As a Golden Sun fan, seeing Plexa is always a pleasure.
Heh, i wonder how much overlap the golden sun and octopath communities have
Plexa the goat fr
Amazing video as always!
Damn. They sure has lots of time to study this
I don't enjoy doing speedruns myself but I have to admit it is really satisfying to see mastery of a game in a short period of time. It's nuts watching some of them
Always stay hydrated
And here I was happy that I finally did my Tressa speedrun in 4 to 5 hours for the last achievements
Experts suggest that staying hydrated is one of the most optimal strats for living so i'm definitely doing that. E
LFG SWELLY JUST DROPPED
swelly of the new variety
An extremely informative video, but my favorite part of it was hearing Legend of Dragoon music featured in it!
LoD was one of my first RPGs! I wish more people had the chance to play it
me playing for 49hrs and counting. 3rd chapter of characters.
This game took me FOREVER…
bro Im still playing this game and it's been 4 years for me 😭😭😌😌💀💀💀
You can’t just multiply the chances of all the stuff that happened and call it a day 😭😭😭
I only got partway through octopath then put it down for a long time.
Now I want to finish it.
The ogre eagle for some reason was a top 3 difficult boss for me to kill.
Ol’ Bear Rick
Always love hearing the dark cloud soundtrack
Congrats on your massive, consecutive nuts speed runner guy.
I like how the music from Dark Cloud randomly starts at 10:55
I can't even pass a double 80% chance and this guy just destroys 20% chance and a 3% like it's nothing
...and that's where the records stands today.
I love the ffmq bgm
First a Ricky video then a DoctorSwellman video and it’s Halloween been quite the day.
Tons of creators dropped content on that day, really awesome stuff!
@@DoctorSwellman I seen your comment on Ricky’s vid then I clicked on your channel and sure enough you uploaded as well
18:30
"Dude, it's November" - 👨
I'm not sure why I like watching speedruns breakdown on games I dont play and maybe never will.... but I just can't help it.
as soon as i heard the voice of this channel, i swear to god it was pannenkoek and i was about to learn about parallel worlds.
hey OP, do you get that a lot?
Does running in the game just make the steps to the next encounter go by faster since you’re moving faster? Or does it change the number of steps or or increase the distance you can travel in the same amount of steps?
It’s all random. Running just raises the chance of encountering an enemy I think
The speedrun is really lucky and really well documented, but "Cait" is pronounced "Ket" or "Caught" and is based on the Celtic fairy cat Cait Sith.
Sith is pronounced "Shee"
Lucky as luck can be
Was that Legend of Dragoon music I heard???
This is reminding me of that Minecraft speedrunnee that modded their rng for world records.
9:00 Since save points are allowed, couldn't a runner make a save point right before trying to scrutinize or allure, and if they fail too many times they could reload the save and try again rather than pay the bartender? This is what I did a lot in my casual playthrough
Also great video 😄
Couldn't get past that dreadful anime picture flashing up
Another DoctorSwellman certified banger. I absolutely adore Octopath Traveler. One of my favorite games in recent years!
Thank you! It’s an awesome game
@@DoctorSwellman Absolutely, I am due a replay, it has been years now. I am so excited for Octopath 2!
This run seems absurd.
Ok, if I got this right he scored a sub 3.50 because a chain of events allowed him to skip a chest. Is the second cait necessary for that?
It always makes me happy whenever I hear dark cloud music in videos.
Dream should run this
Has a PHD in math its like a huge af achievement, but what does it have to do with speedrunning lol
Aw, Starseer isn't too terrible. Restore Balance is really neat at least.
It’s a great class, but specifically for the speedrun its in-battle abilities are almost useless
@@DoctorSwellman I can appreciate that. Of the 4 extra jobs even in a normal context, it's a bit of an odd duck.
What is the octopath
I watched the first half of Quadraaceps run because the .00004% for purchases and .03% for caits numbers were bugging me. They're both vastly off. Your issue is that you're not considering the failures.
--Purchases
Sure he got 15 discounts but the video fails to mention that he purchased more than 50 items so let me break it down:
20% chance discounts- he got 6 discounts out of 40 purchases. This has a 12.5% chance to happen but more importantly there is an 83.9% chance to get >= 6 discounts. This part was actually unlucky. You can argue perhaps that the sorcerer's robe discount could be an independent event since it was a >5k discount but it wasn't mentioned in the video so I won't either. I think 5k in the grand scheme of the run isn't very significant anyway.
30% discounts- he got 4 discounts out of 14 purchases. This has a 22.9% chance to happen or a 64.5% chance to get >= 4 discounts.
I stopped watching after Orlick when tressa was at level 31 so let's pretend that he got 5 out of 5 40% discounts (a 1% chance) .839*.645*.01 is still .0054 or a .5% chance.
It's hard to focus on a video for 2 hours so I probably counted my purchases slightly off but the numbers should be in the right ballpark. Other than the high value items I don't think the discounts matter much anyway. He did skip a couple chests with leaves but I think it had more to do with the 55k he got from the chubby cait.
--Caits
If he only had those 2 encounters looking for caits I would agree with .03% but that's not the case.
Cait: he had 6 encounters before noblecourt flats (or 4 if he would have reset in atlasdam for some reason). The odds of finding >= 1 cait in those 6 encounters is 16.7%, not 3%.
Chubby cait: He had either 2 or 3 opportunities to find this. First on the way to Northreach, second on the way to Whispermill, and third outside of Duskbarrow before Dreisang (he skipped this one but mentioned he would normally take it). Again, the odds of finding >= 1 chubby cait in 3 encounters is 8.7%, not 3%. The impressive part was that he got a surprise attack in the cait encounter despite being vastly underleveled. He even mentioned in the chubby cait encounter that it's normally a bad thing because it just flees and you only get half of the exp. I think you didn't mention it because you couldn't quantify the chance of a surprise attack, which is fair, but I think it's much more relevant.
This isn't to say that I think the run was unlucky. I'm sure he reset many many times to get this run. Just nowhere close to .00004% lucky.
is this game any good? i always pass on trying it due to the price (even on sale)
edit, yeah i got some water and now my wife and i are gonna watch a movie. great video as always swellman
It’s pretty good gameplay wise. As for the story, either people love it or they hate it, apparently the 2nd game is gonna fix most of that
Odds can be crazy in these games. Today I was doing Osvald's Chapter 4 and I had an 84% chance to Scrutinize the NPC needed to progress the story. I failed it 5 times in a row and had to pay to restore my reputation. I then proceeded to scrutinize another NPC with a 24% chance and got it first try. Chance of that is roughly 1 in 40,000.
Chances may be low, but never zero. Even with 99% of success, you can still fail a thousand time before succeeding it.
Neat
Have you spoiled the final boss right at the begining of your video?
this looks so different from the iOS version :/
Growtoe
Wait hold up, a LITERAL phD in math? That's even more prestigious than a regular one!
speedrun comment
It's spelled "preemptives" for future videos.
Stuff like this is why I would never get into speed running lol
just how it the hell do you speed run a unbalanced game
Classic probability mistake of making everything conditional upon every previous (arbitrarily defined) event. It's less about how "lucky" this run was but more how unlikely it is for someone to EXACTLY replicate the outcome.
This run smells fishy
I'm not really impressed with speed runs involving RNGs. It's like watching a bunch of Boomers competing in a slot machine contest. When everyone has the same skill, but luck decides everything, who cares? You might as well sweat the rail watching people scratch off lottery tickets. You've turned a fun game into a math problem.
Real talk as someone who identifies as a mermaid princess telling "folks" to stay "hydrated" is deeply offensive to me. My culture is not your costume. Stay oxygenated, humans.
The more I hear about speedrunning, the more confident I feel it needs to be purged and that speedrunners need psychiatric help
ew, people play this game dubbed?
Lol people loved this game dubbed
It's beautiful @@EigoSensei
Ahhh, speedrunning. Taking the all the joy and fun of random chance and turning it into a lifestyle masochism o win a lottery with no payout.
Speed runners are bugs in human bodies.
Luck? No this is absolutely fake