(EViews10) - How to Forecast ARCH Volatility

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ธ.ค. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 61

  • @CrunchEconometrix
    @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Beloved guest/subscriber, you have discovered my amazing TH-cam Channel tailored specifically for you and other beginners and intermediate users. Please do not keep me to yourself (lol). Kindly share my videos and links with your students, colleagues and academic community so that they too can SUBSCRIBE and learn with ease….and for the global community to be aware that applied econometrics can be simplified. My teaching approach is very practical. I adopt a do-as-I-do style. Many thanks to those who have supported me by telling others. Once again, CrunchEconometrix loves to teach, support my Channel with your subscription, likes, feedbacks and sharing my videos with your cohorts. Follow me on Facebook, Twitter and Reddit. Love you all, greatly!!!

  • @방승욱-n6i
    @방승욱-n6i 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    This is a very useful site for those with interest in financial econometrics. From Seoul, South Korea.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks for the encouraging words and feedback. Deeply appreciated!

  • @thetravelerwonderfulworld9854
    @thetravelerwonderfulworld9854 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Thank you ma. I'm a graduate student studying in the United States and I'm taking a class on quantitative methods of finance II using stata.
    I have a project due tomorrow, and this video has helped me understand a whole lot more about ARCH modeling . O seun pupo ma 🙏🙏.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      You are most welcome, Sir Traveler! (lol)

    • @naziasaleem479
      @naziasaleem479 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      plz need your help ths is also my project

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi Nazia, please go ahead with your question.

  • @tusharpanigrahi4138
    @tusharpanigrahi4138 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    All your videos are really good to understand and apply in research activities. Thank you for sharing these videos

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks for the positive feedback, Tushar. Deeply appreciated! May I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

    • @tusharpanigrahi4138
      @tusharpanigrahi4138 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix Mumbai, India

    • @tusharpanigrahi4138
      @tusharpanigrahi4138 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix could you please upload videos on Baysian SVAR. and PARX model?
      I love the way you explain the complex econometric things in the simplest possible way.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@tusharpanigrahi4138 Awesome! I have many research collaborators from India. good people!...please spread the word about my YT Channel to your students and colleagues. Encourage them to subscribe. Thanks!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@tusharpanigrahi4138 I will definitely once I fully grasp the procedure. Thanks for the encouragement, Tushar!

  • @adityarazpokhrel7626
    @adityarazpokhrel7626 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Thank you mam. Your videos are helping me out a lot in my thesis research of Masters degree in Economics.
    From Nepal, SA.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Thanks Aditya, for the kind words. I wish you the best in your future endeavors. Much love from Nigeria 🇳🇬! 💞

    • @adityarazpokhrel7626
      @adityarazpokhrel7626 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix you are welcome mam... keep blessing students like us. Waiting for your more videos! ☺

  • @tusharpanigrahi4138
    @tusharpanigrahi4138 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    All your videos are really easy to understand

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks, Tushar for the positive feedback. Deeply appreciated! May I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @monicasharma4344
    @monicasharma4344 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    i have see all videos on ARCH Modeling. Great job done ....thanks a lot. Please guide us on GARCH Models also. Request you to make some videos on GARCH also

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks Monica for the positive feedback on my videos. Deeply appreciated! 💕 Will do the GARCH once I fully understand the concept. May I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @gustavocortesmendez1274
    @gustavocortesmendez1274 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    its good to see you again in TH-cam ;)

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hahahaha, thanks Gus....I literally had to whip myself back😄. School work and manuscripts took much of my time. More educative videos coming. Thanks for the support...gracias! 🙏 😄

    • @spinebuster9490
      @spinebuster9490 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix Excellent work Prof. These videos are of high quality.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks WW2 for the encouraging feedback😄

  • @davidkalima8881
    @davidkalima8881 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Good day Proff, thanks for the educative videos. Can you please provide EViews tutoring on Volatility Spillover and Volatility Transmission between products and between markets (e.g) Gold and Oil prices; Wheat and Maize prices. Transmission of Wheat prices in Nigeria vs Wheat price in Kenya etc.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Kalima, I may but it will be published on my Teachable paid platform cruncheconometrix.teachable.com

  • @yebouakouassi3694
    @yebouakouassi3694 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Great job. Waiting for a video on nonlinear Ardl model

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks for the positive feedback, Yeboua. Deeply appreciated! 💕 I'll do my best regarding NARDL as I've received many requests. Though, I'm yet to learn the procedure. May I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

    • @yebouakouassi3694
      @yebouakouassi3694 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@CrunchEconometrix İstanbul

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@yebouakouassi3694 Wow! Kindly spread the word about my videos to your friends and academic community in Turkey 🇹🇷...thanks 😊

  • @chukwumaogbodo6877
    @chukwumaogbodo6877 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Please, upload videos on Panel Data analysis. What differentiates it from the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) and when to use any of them.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      I'll do my best Chukwuma to create those videos once I clear up my backlogs. Thanks for watching and sharing. Grateful!

  • @ayeshasiddiqui7041
    @ayeshasiddiqui7041 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    hello Ma'am you are doing a great job here. I have been following from quite some time now. Your explanation is crisp. can you post a video on Asymmetric causality test by Hathemi J(2012) on GAUSS software?
    Thank you.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Ayesha, thanks so much for the positive feedback. Deeply appreciated! 💕. But honestly I don't know what that procedure entails and I've never used the GAUSS software too...sorry 🙏

  • @chukwumaogbodo6877
    @chukwumaogbodo6877 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Good day ma. Thanks for the video. I have watched all the ARCH videos twice and I must commend the simplicity, the passion and the understanding of it. Great. Job!
    My question is, the analysis you did showed that investors should hold their investments because the ARCH graphs are seen to be steady over the period. How do investors know when to sell off their shares or purchase more shares using the ARCH forecast?
    Thanks.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Chukwuma, same way an investor wants to hold a "stable" asset, no investor wants to hold a "volatile" asset. So, once the forecast shows volatility, the incentive to sell that asset rises. Hope this clarifies, thanks.

  • @dennisbaidoo5995
    @dennisbaidoo5995 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank you very much Doc. for the insightful video. Could you please help me with how l could use eviews to generate annual crude oil price volatility for a 34 year period i.e from 1983 to 2017.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Dennis, thanks for the positive feedback on my videos. Deeply appreciated! 💕 But what you need to do is not different from what I showed in this clip. Simply follow the process and modify your data accordingly. Thanks.

  • @mercyayodele1356
    @mercyayodele1356 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank you very much for these lectures. I have been working on a paper, I have data on oil price however, what I need is the oil price volatility, can i measure oil price volatility from the oil price data using ARCH?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Yes, you can. That is what I explained in the video.

  • @kd32141
    @kd32141 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Ma'am, your videos are very useful.
    Objective of my research is finding the impact of Foreign Institutions Investment on the Volatality of Stock Market using GARCH model.
    Is there some wrong in the objective. If no, how can we do it using GARCH Model?
    Will be thankful If you can explain.
    Regards

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks for the encouraging words and feedback about my videos. Deeply appreciated! But I don't delve into research topics. Out of my scope. Apologies🙏

  • @tusharpanigrahi4138
    @tusharpanigrahi4138 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Requesting you to upload videos on Multivariate GARCH, Structural VAR and Baysian VAR using EVIEWS interface

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Tushar, I'll do my best once I understand the techniques😊

  • @mohapatraful
    @mohapatraful 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    What if forecast mean is not significant when p value is more than .05

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Arup, not significant implies no impact. Zero information about the future.

  • @mustanggemini2156
    @mustanggemini2156 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Hi Bosede, great videos. I was wondering how to get the arch data before you plotting the graph. Do you have for Garch models like Egarch tutorials as well. :)

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Khairul, I don't have the permission to share the Asteriou and Hall dataset...and I don't have videos on GARCH modeling, yet. Thanks for watching and the positive feedback, deeply appreciated! May I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

    • @mustanggemini2156
      @mustanggemini2156 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Malaysia :)

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@mustanggemini2156 Awesome! Kindly spread the word about my TH-cam Channel to your friends and academic community in Malaysia 🇲🇾! 😀

    • @mustanggemini2156
      @mustanggemini2156 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Dr Bosede, may I know the best way to communicate with you for your suggestions and advice on econometrics issues which are related to your videos?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@mustanggemini2156 You can always reach me via this medium. I will respond to your queries. Thanks.

  • @aissahafidi5204
    @aissahafidi5204 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    how to forecast next period ؟؟؟

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      You do this by adjusting the sample period as demonstrated in the video.

    • @buyahan52
      @buyahan52 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@CrunchEconometrix hell dear, thank you for your videos
      I would like to forecast next future months,
      When I change directly periods, it wont giving me result? How to forecast next periods?
      Please

  • @hashash07
    @hashash07 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    What is the main difference between dynamic and static?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      The inclusion of the lagged depvar as an explvar.

    • @hashash07
      @hashash07 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@CrunchEconometrix so in my conclusion if i want to take MSE and MAE to comparison, is it will make any different?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Not to my knowledge.

  • @SumanGupta-zq7cm
    @SumanGupta-zq7cm ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Please understand the meaning of the standard error. Do not teach wrong. Other videos are very good. But here i have to differ. No forecast value can go beyond SE band as the positive and negative SE depend on the forecasted value. Then how can it go beyond it as per your interpretation?