Stop The Clickbait! The Car Market Will Not Crash

The strange world of automotive clickbait calling for a car market crash when everything is still significantly more expensive than 2019. If something goes up 10x and then traces back 50%. That's not a crash, that's a 5x gain. Opinion is always subject to change as more data comes out. But the data today does not support a "MARKET CRASH". All my sources are below
Sources
www.cargurus.com/research/pri...
www.coxautoinc.com/market-ins...
www.coxautoinc.com/news/decem...
site.manheim.com/en/services/...
www.coxautoinc.com/learning-c...
0:00 - Intro
1:13 - Manheim Index
3:00 - CarGuru Index
4:04 - Manheim Index 2
5:11 - Manheim Outlook and Forecast
7:49 - My Forecast
9:44 - Conclusion

[@beinquisitive]

The problem is that crashes dont happen very often and predicting them everyday is going to lead to unnecessary angst from people who take in this type of analysis.
It makes more sense to take a more measured approach, like hey, the car market has been in a bubble, it is probably going to normalize and regress to the mean at some point. Certainly auto loan defaults, consumer buying power, employment numbers, can all be factored in, but even if there is a "crash", the fed and the government have become very quick at reactively papering over problems before things completely melt down. This can have very negative implications on any crash thesis that might be floating around. This is to say, if you are trying to capitalize on a crash, you might end up waiting for a long time while other opportunities pass you by in the process.
Bottom line: 🤷🏻‍♂️

[@thesilveremir]

Completely agree with you. Data should be everyone's friend.

[@huemann7637]

Dealers aren’t going to lower prices because they know everyone will be forced to buy a car from them when the pieces of junk they have been selling for the last few years stop working.

[@thesilveremir]

Also 80% of people will buy no matter what. They'll just start using a 72 month and 84 month financing option to lower their payments even if it increases their final balance.

[@stace1967]

I just turned my car over to my lender. I asked the repo guy how busy he is. He receives 30 repo orders a day. He said they are behind about 250 cars that need to be repo'd. Sounds like a crash to me.

[@mebinici]

Plebs, normies and sheep like this guy posting this video surely voted for Biden...

[@phillyfathead]

Once again excellent video!

[@mebinici]

LOL! Bro, inflation, hugh rates and an unhealthy economy literally slapping Americans in the face...

[@Charlytto37]

fear sell

[@worldpeace4231]

All you need is 5k for a car that won't break..juss saying 🥴

[@JSMCPN]

Truth. Most people have spent more on replacing their iPhones than I have on repairing my cars since 2007.

[@User82125]

You are wrong It’s already crashing

[@thesilveremir]

Let's give it 6 months and see what happens.

[@tysonrolls9713]

Car repos exploding the market is crashing

[@thesilveremir]

Car repos are still lower than they were in 2019

[@ricardorivera3909]

Yeah I seen those, I was just wondering of when will those guys get sued? They actually record at the dealership 🤷🏿‍♂️ and yet no one cares. But they are full of shit

[@ricardorivera3909]

Oh by the way I have a dealership 😂 also the auctions they visit are relatively small compared to Adesa or Mannheim

[@thesilveremir]

Any insight from your dealership? I've seen some brands specifically come down in price, but the average manufacturer like Toyota, Honda, Chevy, Ford, etc. Those prices have not moved down by much.