First time I've heard this guy speak and I assume from comments that he has now unfortunately passed away. What a brilliant speaker. I love his style and definitely will be watching more of his stuff.
poewhite isn't what you call sleight of hand actually just a simplification of the fact that that 0-15 cohort comprises of European / American / African / Asian components each of which are reproducing at different rates, but in aggregate are roughly at replacement level? So the makeup of this cohort will shift over time from primarily Asian to primarily African (assuming a continuation of current fertility rates in the various regions). Which he details in the final part of the presentation. The logic seems good. It's bolstered by studies showing that urbanization goes hand in hand with reduced family sizes, and as you know there is a powerful shift towards city dwelling in most developing nations. As for "snake oil", what exactly would he be getting for peddling this? He acknowledges the environmental impacts of increased population, and is simply illustrating why an increase to around 11bn is an inevitability unless we actively get rid of people or sterilize them. I am not sure that the critique of Mao is justified though. The 1-child policy did succeed in limiting the growth of the Chinese population, meaning that they will soon be overtaken by India. I assume that the 0-15 cohort in China is relatively small,meaning that even if they move their fertility rates to replacement levels, their population is going to massively shrink relative to their neighbors (not to mention the US which has been importing ~1mn immigrants per annum on average hence is at much higher than replacement levels when coupled with their fertility rates of close to replacement).
@poewhite There are many factors at play here which could influence fertility rates in those regions, granted. We can't be certain how Africa will fare, but if that region pursues the same approach to development as others have, fertility rates will likely fall. So I tend to agree with Rosling's projections at a high level. However we are not doing a deeper analysis of environmental factors here i.e. climate change, resource shortages of various kinds taking the steam out of runaway global economic expansion, ecological collapses of various kinds constraining growth even further. All of which certainly could act to constrain development in Africa. Whether that leads to greater fertility rates or causes a massive spike in death rates due to famine, or both, who yet knows? What we DO know is that the 7-8 bn population we currently have on the planet is causing catastrophic environmental impacts, never mind the 11 billion he predicts. So I'm in violent agreement with you that this is a very bad thing and we should not be complacent about the impact of massive numbers of human beings seeking to improve their living standards - it's not viable. But Rosling was not a snake oil salesman and there was no "sleight of hand" or devious intent - that's my point.
@poewhite Hm ok this conversation has taken an unexpected turn. "The white west" you fantasize of is long since departed. The ethnic composition of the United States is 40% "non-white", with non-white cohorts such as African-Americans, Hispanics and Pacific Islanders having significantly higher fertility rates than caucasians and asians - so that proportion is only going to increase over time in a very not-lily-white direction. Further, US congress members come from a diverse range of ethnic backgrounds (refer below). So where is this "white west" you speak of? www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/08/for-the-fifth-time-in-a-row-the-new-congress-is-the-most-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-ever/ In any case, the ethnic composition of population groups is not even being examined in Rosling's talk. This is a different topic entirely. You're stitching in notions of racial purity and Zionist conspiracy. Ironically, it is this very world view - splitting humanity into groups segregated by ethnicity, nationality, religion and culture - that provides much of the impetus behind population growth. A world in which the economic relations between groups is largely controlled by a powerful oligarchy focused on securing its own interests, simply ensures the continued impoverishment/servitude of under-developed parts of the world, and perpetuates their continued exploitation. In these desperate circumstances, the poor multiply precisely because they perceive no other way to improve the odds of their long-term survival. The reality is that people share the same existential problems regardless of their ethnicity or which nation state they happen to live in. Our best chance of dealing with the issues we deal with as a species is to recognize our common plight, erase the arbitrary racial/nationalistic/cultural labels, and begin working together to rein in consumption and intelligently manage our global population.
A few decades ago in the days of CB radios, a truck driver said to me one of the most profound things I've ever heard: "May you live as long as you want to, and want to as long as you live."
"Assholes such as yourself are the reason hatred is... " - who is the one showing hatred?? "I wish your kind would immediately die off in massive numbers." versus what I wrote. lol...gimme a break...
RIP Hans, thank you for all the wisdom. It was really a punch-in-the-gut feeling when you wished you could live for 15 more years, but unfortunately fate had a different plan. Once, again I sincerely thank you for your efforts in making us understand the world a bit better.
If you believe any of the VERBAL CRAP this guy spews, then watch THIS video about ACTUAL crap in India. That is the result of massive overpopulation. th-cam.com/video/V35Vw29tay0/w-d-xo.html
Russ G, you obvious didn't watch this whole video, at about the 11 minute mark he starts explaining that in poorer countries, specifically African counrties but can also include India the population is massively increasing because parents value having multiple children over what their children do.
I hope he is burning in HELL for his obvious lies, as India and Africa are all exponentially increasing their population. Look at any graph it has sped up, not slowed down thus far.
He is referring to women in Africa being clever about reproducing more kids to survive in the future because they know that if they don't reproduce they will die due to not having the support children will provide in the future, does that make sense?
@@ultraviolet.catastrophe You could survive being dumb in a wealthy country. But being dumb in poor country is killing. Poverty is more selective, more Darwinian environment.
Hans is an example why we have to increase life span of older people. Once you live your life and find your passion you become a jewel in the crown of human society. Hans, you have done really good job. Best work I ever seen explaining it. I am so sorry that you will not do that anymore. Adieu, au revoir, bon voyage, farewell, goodbye and godspeed old chap...
@@BikashKumar-pz8hc I think he refers to the previous comment about "Black Code" on Bible4truth but I might be wrong. If that's not the case, I agree with you.
"Conceptually, children are moving from Asia to Africa". I love when a high level thought such as this is grasped and articulated in such a concise manner.
TheRandomest and he subtly took shots at eugenicist psychopaths like the billionaire tyrants who are robbing Africa and want the people out of the way (dead).
I finished "Factfulness" just now, really great book written by Rosling. I loved the book so much; it is full of useful, interesting and important information. RIP, Hans Rosling!
Amazing, simply amazing. The best presentation of the demographical shift I've seen. And such a resilient man 8:14 :-) Edit: Just learned that he's passed away... Rest in piece
The world will naturally adjust as scarcity arises or at least that is the hope so long as sudden scarcity doesn't occur things should run relatively smoothly with limited resources.
Assuming we don't live at a higher standard of living on fewer resources. If you put solar panels on your roof, have cars that last longer, lightbulbs that take less electricity...
be careful. he says many bad things; "this is why we should support UNICEF". he pretends that his calculations include epidemic disease, political conflict and big climatic events. but they don't. i promise that, when you are older, the geography teacher will seem stupid.
1. in this video, Rosling promotes UNICEF. about 20 years ago UNICEF was converted (by america) from promoting the health and prosperity of children to preventing african babies. they want a "clean genocide". powerful governments don't want to lose control of africa's colossal wealth. 2. when you have your own child OR have serious responsibility for a child OR love a child.... then you will understand the beauty and importance of family life. you will understand how it is central to happiness, culture and civilisation. you will know that these propagandists are more than idiots. they are genocidal psychopaths. 3. perhaps you think i have jumped to an extreme conclusion. perhaps you think i need to be more flexible and open to ideas.... open to possibilities. i promise, you will grow older and recognise these evil stinking shit people. you will recognise it instantly.
remember my geography teacher showing us his website a couple years back - inspired me to look into demographics and development - now doing a BSc in Geography - thank you for the inspiration, Hans
I was raised Jewish and last time I checked I have no plans of world domination at the moment, though that might change with morons like you running around.
What happens to people like me? Nobody knows that? Nobody has family that are undertakers? They die. We die. Old people die. Doesn't mean we won't miss you Hans Rosling.
What a brilliant educator! I only learned he's left us just after watching this video. I'm really sad a wonderful mind and a kind hearted person like him is not among us anymore. But his fantastic work will always live. Thank you for everything, professor Hans Rosling.
Hans Rosling was simply the best. His death was a great loss to the world and to policy making. I would love to have had his take during the Covid pandemic.
I would love to have a cup of coffee with this gentleman. I sure hope the young people close to him are soaking up everything he has to offer our generation. We need more minds like his.
Look on the TED site at the video Hans Rosling TED@Cannes Global population growth, box by box, from 8 mins 10 seconds in. "We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things."
One bad consequence on limiting nr of children to 1 per family, is that it creates an upside down pyramid, where young must support a huge number of old people.
The productivity for every person is much higher today than yesterday. Fewer people produce more. We have machines. We do not need many young to support few old. The population can decline without starving out our seniors.
Birth control is not a mistake. Couple can get one or two kids but our problem is we are living in a nuclear family system! We won't like joint family system! Joint family was strength, knowledge and profitable in the past!? (pls visit www.questmenism.com).
At the end of the day, I hope he's right. There's something genuine and good about his passion for these topics and it's a damn shame he never got those fifteen years to keep on studying those statistics. He gets closer and closer to being correct with every year, and with the human population reaching a balance for the first time in its history the only questions that remain are what we should do to ensure our planet can house us all. This isn't a conversation of apocalypse, just a question of how to live better.
He's not right, though. And he wasn't honest about the growth "not being exponential". When humans went from 1-4 billion, that was definitely exponential growth, because it always took fewer and fewer years to grow by one billion. The rate at which humans are being added, plus the relatively low death rates in the world mean that globally, we will definitely grow well past 11 billion humans. There is simply no mechanism in place to stop this growth. There are 80 million more humans added every year, and this rate is not abating -- if anything, it's increasing.
@@Panamenya There is a mechanism, and it's called people being better off. It leads to people having less children and the birth rate declining. And as for the statistics I can find online, the rate is decreasing, albeit slowly, for now.
@@Panamenya And as for the statistics, search for "human population growth 2023" and click on the website named "MacroTrends" and you will find the stats.
People conflate "being better off" as the reason why people have fewer kids. Typically, it's the other way around: people gain the wisdom (typically via education, or a living example in their lives) to have fewer kids to increase their prosperity, they delay childbearing, and when they have kids, they have a few -- not a lot. And then they become more prosperous, on average. But people conflate the action with the result and say that the prosperity is what caused the lower birth rates. There is a feedback loop effect, whereby more prosperity leads to more education and more examples of lower birth rates that result in prosperity. And more prosperity tends to lean toward keeping the birth rates low, in order to hold onto that prosperity well into the next generations. @@mism847
Great explanation, means that over time number of people on earth is a function of: 1. rate of birth => generation 2. rate of death => de-generation. 3. life expectancy affects balancing time of the equation.
I am now watching Birthgap- a Childless World, which presents a view that the world will be faced with a new challenge of an increasing ageing population and fewer younger people to work and provide a tax base for services to the elderly as well as people to provide those services. Would have loved to have heard Hans’ views.
The ability to extract nitrogen from the air and use it in synthetic fertiliser was the primary trigger that allowed population explosion, without that there would not be enough food to support it.
As a person who has been poor in Africa from Africa; Children are a blessing they are an addition to the work force, they increase the odds of your survival more security, more farmers. The odds are higher that one of your children will marry into a wealthy family or will get lucky and become rich to help all the others out of poverty. But if you have one child and he or she dies or is "wayward" refuses to work and leads a reckless life you will suffer because elderly homes are not a thing in Africa, children take care of their elderly themselves; a 90year old may live with any of his children who is rich enough or may life with the youngest or poorest child while the richer children send money for both their father and their brother or sister taking care of him. That's how it works down here. Don't be scared we are not having many children to conquer the world after all we leave the lowest carbon trail, we have played no part in causing global warming. It's only natural that if I know my fruit tree is very likely to die before bearing fruits I should plant 2 or 3 to increase the odds of survival don't listen to fear mongers.
Asians on average are family-oriented and children are seen as the parents' pension plan and nursing homes. It is only in the West where affluent societies can afford welfare and nursing homes. I believe, Hispanics have the same family-oriented culture as Asians.
@@cw205mi16 Asians are family-oriented whether you like it or not. Yes, there are poor Asian countries but the rich Asian countries still value family compared to Westerners. That is why Asians in the US are also family-oriented, whether they are rich or poor families. Westerners value individualism more, on the other hand. So personal space and individual freedom are very important to them. It is just a different mindset. It is also true that poor countries have no welfare. In the past, even Western countries value the family because there was no welfare so the children are needed to take care of their aging parents. So your notion about poorer economies is valid in this scenario. It does not negate the truth that Asians are still family-oriented even in richer economies so family ties are very strong among Asians compared to their Western counterparts.
Asians are family oriented. It is mentioned in many of the comments. But it is not the full truth. At this moment Asian parents are family oriented but Asian children are not. Educated children are going to cities or to western countries to earn more leaving their old parents in villages to fight on their own. So why the next generation will have more children. They will have one or no children. The trend has started in large scale in India.
He didn't take into count the increases in birthrate experienced in some middle East countries. It was a cute presentation method though. Major problem was an indepth discussion of what would make the "Linear" birthrate decide to become exponentially negative. I don't know the time period of his work but I do know the politicians are continuing to support increasing growth.
I had the pleasure of watching this lecture in its whole live, but in Swedish in Sweden, 2015. Now more than ever, we miss Hans and his work. Reast in Peace 💙
My great grandparents lived to 90 and both chain smoked. My grandpa died at 86 My grandma is 78. All older than the “life expectancy” of 71 years. Our childrens children will be older than a hundred
My grandmas died at 43 & 78. Grandad's roughly the same. Life expectancy is falling, even in 1st world countries. Yes, we'll see some records broken with longevity but it won't be global.
I don’t know if I can agree with that statement. Years ago people worked hard to make a living and now it is a lot of desk jobs that allow people to not get their heart rate up. I’m no doctor but just seeing my ancestors who were farmers living just as long as the current generation make me wonder about the longevity of life.
I'm impressed with the late Prof Rosling's analysis and I am largely convinced by his presentation, despite the fact that I broadly accept the Malthusian notion that populations tend to increase in line with the available resources to sustain them (primarily food). However, I do see some problems with Prof Rosling's analysis in practice, not necessarily because he was wrong about the overall figures but because I think these figures alone are only a part of the problem. As was clearly illustrated in the presentation, population growth is very uneven and declines in births in one region are compensated for by continued growth in other regions (Africa primarily). It is suggested that even growth in Africa will fall dramatically once mortality rates amongst the young decline and access to contraception and health services will kick in and do the job. Well, I am far from convinced that mortality rates will continue to fall and I suspect that health services in poorer regions of the world will not improve, and may even decline rapidly (as they have in, for instance, Afghanistan) as the carrying capacity of the globe (food production and distribution) is disrupted by Climate Change and the famines and wars and mass movements of people that will follow. The global population may stabilise at around eleven thousand million, as the Professor said, but if large parts of the world become effectively uninhabitable, and the knock on effects of the resulting refugee crises spread chaos into neighbouring regions (for example, Liberal Democracy in Europe will not survive if there are a hundred million desperate and starving refugees climbing over the barbed-wire border fences in the East and paddling across the Mediterranean on anything that floats in the South). We have to stabilise the population, but on a downward trajectory, because accepting a figure of eleven thousand million when we have no plans in place to feed such a number, let alone see that they have access to contraception and health services, is a recipe for disaster. Whether we can do any of this in practice is highly debatable and personally I am not optimistic, but giving up all attempts would be a counsel of despair and would seal the fate of out children and grandchildren, and I'm not yet prepared to do that.
@Charles White "Africa is currently flooding the world with migrants, whilst they continue to increase their own population." I'm afraid I smell a whiff of racism here, but let's give Mr White the benefit of the doubt and address his point. Africa is not "flooding" the world: the poorer regions of the globe are the most impacted by the Global Warming, and resultant Climate Change that Europe and North America have inflicted on us all. These disastrous impacts will make much of the world uninhabitable and so of course people will flee the famines and wars and societal collapse this will bring. As I said in my original comment, there is a massive job to do in trying to stabilise the situation and I am not that optimistic, but it is the responsibility (both moral and practical) of the richer parts pf the world to get together and work out where and how to put in the necessary resources. it is not just 'their' problem... it is 'our' problem, and to be blunt, we have more to lose than the poor sods in Africa so we'd better get on with it... sharpish!
We are well past 8 billion and heading toward 9 billion in 14 years. The threat that is bigger than WW3 is the growing human population. You could say the growth is slowing down, but it's still growing nevertheless. Within the lifetimes of everyone here, it will never decrease, only ever increase. I am also skeptical of his extremely optimistic prediction that it will somehow never surpass 11 billion. Sounds like a fantasy. A nicely presented one, but not congruent with reality or human behavior, unfortunately. Since all of us will be dead by the time it does reach 11 billion, we, personally, will never know. But people born three generations from now will find out how wrong and cutely optimistic this talk was, as they're drowning in people and human-generated waste, and as the population continues to rise. Remember that the ONLY real solution for the problem of human overpopulation is our own collective, voluntary, conscious self-restraint in reproduction. If we don't learn this and act on it, we will not ever overcome this problem. We must voluntarily decide, together, all over the world, to reduce the number of births to below the number of deaths, every year. And we need to do it for a long, long time. Probably a couple of centuries, to get to sustainable levels where there is plenty of room for wildlife and some room for human-centric spaces.
What I know is that in my country, the philippines, population keeps on growing and if we dont control it, our countrys resources will not be able to support its people.
Your country, my country, and all other countries are unable to support it's people with their RENEWABLE resources. The non-renewables will run out and the population will be killed back to the level that the renewables can keep alive.
Yes, it's a pity that a man with such charisma (and supported by such tech wizardry) was telling us not to worry about the thing that is affecting humanities demise.
Asia is not too bad, of course, the Philippines, Indonesia could do better, but Africa is the craziest, they are still having 5-6 children. What's worse is the majority of them don't think it's a problem.
@@baxakk7374 Asia have 5 billion population Africa population is equal to China or India or China population is even more so I think Asia is the problem here because u have to combine north ,south America plus Europe plus Africa and still Asia is still leading
Not literally and not all of us. The Chinese actually paid people not to have children for many years. What we need to do is create incentives for people not to have children, especially in parts of the third world, where the resources to feed, clothe, and properly educate them don't exist.
Very smart man, and still my guru for data visualisation. Two things he did not anticipate, nearly a decade ago: (i) that the "2 childrens" would actually become one child or less throughout much of the world, inverting the pyramid, and (ii) that life expectancy would increase through a concentrated program of radical life extension. So his blocks stack higher, but they are also thinner at the bottom.
Wow this is an issue that has been discussed by philosophers for hundreds of years (the best and most recent probably being Bergson's treatment of overpopulation towards the end of his oeuvre), and yet in one 15 minute video this guy has somehow assuaged the concern (even dread) that has accumulated in my mind about this issue; about sex, religion, fear of death etc... this is a wonderful video!
An interesting presentation. I live in a rural Kansas small town where it's still common where those who com from a family that had 7 children have 7 children themselves. One would think this town would have more than 2000 residents. Because this are doesn't have the resource to support such a population there is an out migration, where kids go to consume resources elsewhere.While there is clearly exponential population growth in many area, I will no longer use exponential growth for, rather simply say ing unsustainable population growth.. There are simply areas of the planet where people will not use family planning at all of any sort. Of core an ubexpecteted atronomical or geological event could be our doom, but humanty could be the cause of the end of humanity. The planent does care it can have a natural death, not missing us at all until then.
But Utopia DID address this also. He said that by the time the world population stabilises, all wildlife would be gone. Also population stabilising at 11 billion is not something to feel happy about, since that's even more population than what it is right now.
@@BulletGramm your sentence can only come from a virgin, or a fcker that has never fcked without condom. oof man really sorry for u, must be a hard life
Love how TH-camrs are always smarter than anyone in the videos they are watching. I no longer watch the videos of those buffoons (thanks @David Franco Jr). Instead, I chose my videos based on the click bait title, then I soak up all the knowledge the geniuses of the TH-cam Verse are leaving the comment section. I have learned so much from them.
"Take away the child allowances, the subsidies for the day care centers and school (...)" Actually, you don't have to do that in Sweden. Swedish families are having one child per family with taking away all that. What you need to do is close the immigration. Not even close, but limit to a small number of people who would be checked in advance to fit the criteria beneficial to the country. (Like having a clean crime record.) For many decades I saw the overpopulation as a hopeless tragedy. And then I noticed that in Sweden, France, England, Italy, Spain, Japan, and many other places people are having 2 children or less, and the actual populations are beginning to go down. So I allowed myself a little bit of hope. And then all the rulers of all these countries opened their borders and let everyone in. It was one huge ... (insulting gesture) in the face of environment, and many other things. Today, environmentalism has become the largest corrupt enterprise of all. Nobody means what they say, nobody cares about the environment, all they care about is getting money for themselves.
Thank god. I didn't think there was going to be one sane person in the comments. This guy comes across as a lovely old man and a bit doddery but I imagine he has discussed genocide by different means quite a few times behind closed doors.
It was a huge insulting gesture at the face of the native people too, who now have to face a heightened risk of rape, assault and homicide alongside gang activity comprised of almost exclusively immigrants (in my country, the street gangs are 95% foreign-born/second generation immigrants) if they can't afford to live in an area free of such actors, like the politicians that decided to swing the doors open.
While he was a brilliant man and made incredible speeches on this topic, it still doesn't eliminate the problem of us exaspirating our natural resources :/
Here,in Greece, because our population is in decline,we have a say: One for the mother,one for the father,and one for our cantry.... but today,we have one or none . very few couples have 3...4 is the rare exception. Sad.
Some modern predictions are now showing that it may not even exceed 10 billion, with the current rate of decline in the global fertility rate (2021 was approximately 2.3 births per woman) and so some argue that as the birth rate drops below replacement of 2.1, the population will decline and now many think the global population will peak around 2080 at just under 10 billion.
what are the odds of getting smallpox in an environment that has no smallpox? What are the odds of getting smallpox in an environment where everyone is vacccinated with a solution that has a 1 in 300 000 chance of having active smallpox?
@@BobSmith-rs7tn you realise that theres not enough small pox in the vaccination to reach the critical contraction point and as well as this there's a 30% increase in Europe of small pox since the beginning of the anti vaxers movement
@@BobSmith-rs7tn The vaccine itself can cause infection, hundreds of people have been infected by vaccines and some have permanent disabilities from it. Vaccines are made from a weak version of the actual disease, to teach your body how to kill it. Its not perfect there is risk attached to it. And even if it was perfect, people still have a right to not take part, even if it dooms the rest of society in the long run.
I had a very long discussion about this last night. I had to point out that we need less population drastically, but we can’t just eliminate or force the population down. My immediate follow up was that education and ease of access to contraceptives is currently our best option.
Interesting talk, but what is his basis for assuming that average lifespan will not greatly exceed 71 years and that child growth will stabilize? For the latter, he appears to be projecting the European and North American demography on Asia and Africa, but can we really do so without taking into account sociological and cultural differences? Also, aren't we then assuming that poverty will end in Africa? Especially that last assumption is not at all in line with the current economic developments.
Enki Denys the lifespan won’t greatly exceed 71 because 71 is already pushing a humans body to its limit. Your body does not really work past some point, everything stops working, the risk for cancer exponentially increases, your immune system turns into shit, broken bones don’t heal together anymore. 71 is already extremely old but it is as old as you can really get. At some point you won’t get an old car to work without replacing all of its components. And I wanna see you replace every single human cell.
There are plenty of demonstrations of population groups living on average 10, 15, and 20 years older than 71. Diet, and lifestyle have a huge impact on lifespan. Averages are deceptive. Reduce the child mortality rate in Africa, and it's age of death becomes very similar to the West.
That's exactly what I thought. He's making a few major assumptions on the global scale. Several nation's throughout Africa are modern and bringing modernity to the surrounding countries, as well as Asia. It's not that they have more children, but more will survive and grow older as healthcare improves across their continent. I also think his graph is extremely misleading right off the bat, it appears like Africa is smaller in population than both Europe and the America's. It's as large if not larger than the other two in terms of population. He makes a great argument but I can't get past some major assumptions
The problem people have thinking of population is that no matter what your economic system , it is dependent on the population of people 15 to 40, max. Productivity, work, economic output, is totally dependent on the young generation, so if your youth decline, so does everything else.
I wonder if those older and older and older people eat and consume earth resources less and less and less than those people who lived hundreds of years ago. I doubt.
Mika Harju Maybe the same? We have to keep in mind, people have not lived as long, long ago, as they do today. So, as people got old thousands of years ago, they probably just got tired and died. Today, people stop working and continue to live on and on.
Well technology allows us to be better stewards than our ancestors. For instance not many people know, that there are more trees in the northern hemisphere than at any point in the last 500 years. Not having wood be the primary energy source for literally every human activity coupled with a big bang in our understanding of ecology has facilitated this change.
Shit Poster, you got a good point. I wasn't aware they did a tree count count before the conquistadors came to the New World. Keep up the good work clearcutting of those old growth forests
People had no means of stopping wildfires back then, they relied almost solely on wood for shelter, warmth and cooking, there were no laws regarding clearcutting, you dont have to have a numerical survey to know that. In most of the northern hemisphere logging is heavily controlled and action plans to reestablish the forest have to be in place before the first tree drops. Selectively cutting emergent and canopy trees can actually be a boon to the forest as a whole, creating oasis' for animals that depend on the herbaceous layer. Where I live (US, Maine) most of my state would be inaccessible without logging roads and we would be defenseless against a fire that could wipe out 10s if not 100s of thousands of acres.
KamakaziOzzie right! Europe is tiny and inconsequential, and most of Russia/Asia never calls them "trees". Hey, 500 years ago the Americans didn't even call them trees in EITHER 'hemisphere'.
science: 11 billion ppl corona: hold my beer edit...it wasn.t a statement or some prediction. i found it funny to say corona and beer in such a comment,cause there is corona beer,so... in fact we are too many for this world,there is a plan for decimation,that.s not a secret any more. if corona is one,i don.t know
@@Abadi881 while i can.t deny it COULD be true, you can.t proof it is. plans of cutting back the earth pop exist for a long time now...but because war won.t work any more and would prob.w destroy everything...farmacy,food.ind.and bio.weapons stepped in. if covid is one,maybe we.ll never know
@Florin Natu the problem is we can not prove it. But sometimes we should act based upon the worst of people intentions. Humans are no longer in favor of humanity.
@@Abadi881 they never were,friend. with some exceptions,it.s only about surviving and living of the back of somebody. you and me do that too,without even knowing. world peace and bullshit like this were never an option
I am 70% sure the CoVid will boost the growth rate: a] improved social cohesion b] quarantine leads to sex c] fewer contraceptives in quarantine d] less interruption options e) less traffic and its poisons in the air
Wouldn't it be interesting if he could provide an analysis of the peak populations of some other of nature's species. It's as though he thinks humans live in a grand isolation. And ALL without mention of Haber Bosch.
Children conceptually moving to poorer regions in the world just absolutely breaks my heart! We need to ensure that those regions are developed and educated as soon as possible!
First time I've heard this guy speak and I assume from comments that he has now unfortunately passed away. What a brilliant speaker. I love his style and definitely will be watching more of his stuff.
Martin Hendy he wrote a great book: Factfulness!
Ya read he died at only age 68 from Pancreatic Cancer. :(
poewhite isn't what you call sleight of hand actually just a simplification of the fact that that 0-15 cohort comprises of European / American / African / Asian components each of which are reproducing at different rates, but in aggregate are roughly at replacement level? So the makeup of this cohort will shift over time from primarily Asian to primarily African (assuming a continuation of current fertility rates in the various regions). Which he details in the final part of the presentation.
The logic seems good. It's bolstered by studies showing that urbanization goes hand in hand with reduced family sizes, and as you know there is a powerful shift towards city dwelling in most developing nations.
As for "snake oil", what exactly would he be getting for peddling this? He acknowledges the environmental impacts of increased population, and is simply illustrating why an increase to around 11bn is an inevitability unless we actively get rid of people or sterilize them.
I am not sure that the critique of Mao is justified though. The 1-child policy did succeed in limiting the growth of the Chinese population, meaning that they will soon be overtaken by India. I assume that the 0-15 cohort in China is relatively small,meaning that even if they move their fertility rates to replacement levels, their population is going to massively shrink relative to their neighbors (not to mention the US which has been importing ~1mn immigrants per annum on average hence is at much higher than replacement levels when coupled with their fertility rates of close to replacement).
@poewhite There are many factors at play here which could influence fertility rates in those regions, granted. We can't be certain how Africa will fare, but if that region pursues the same approach to development as others have, fertility rates will likely fall. So I tend to agree with Rosling's projections at a high level.
However we are not doing a deeper analysis of environmental factors here i.e. climate change, resource shortages of various kinds taking the steam out of runaway global economic expansion, ecological collapses of various kinds constraining growth even further. All of which certainly could act to constrain development in Africa. Whether that leads to greater fertility rates or causes a massive spike in death rates due to famine, or both, who yet knows?
What we DO know is that the 7-8 bn population we currently have on the planet is causing catastrophic environmental impacts, never mind the 11 billion he predicts. So I'm in violent agreement with you that this is a very bad thing and we should not be complacent about the impact of massive numbers of human beings seeking to improve their living standards - it's not viable.
But Rosling was not a snake oil salesman and there was no "sleight of hand" or devious intent - that's my point.
@poewhite Hm ok this conversation has taken an unexpected turn. "The white west" you fantasize of is long since departed. The ethnic composition of the United States is 40% "non-white", with non-white cohorts such as African-Americans, Hispanics and Pacific Islanders having significantly higher fertility rates than caucasians and asians - so that proportion is only going to increase over time in a very not-lily-white direction. Further, US congress members come from a diverse range of ethnic backgrounds (refer below). So where is this "white west" you speak of?
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/08/for-the-fifth-time-in-a-row-the-new-congress-is-the-most-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-ever/
In any case, the ethnic composition of population groups is not even being examined in Rosling's talk. This is a different topic entirely. You're stitching in notions of racial purity and Zionist conspiracy. Ironically, it is this very world view - splitting humanity into groups segregated by ethnicity, nationality, religion and culture - that provides much of the impetus behind population growth. A world in which the economic relations between groups is largely controlled by a powerful oligarchy focused on securing its own interests, simply ensures the continued impoverishment/servitude of under-developed parts of the world, and perpetuates their continued exploitation. In these desperate circumstances, the poor multiply precisely because they perceive no other way to improve the odds of their long-term survival.
The reality is that people share the same existential problems regardless of their ethnicity or which nation state they happen to live in. Our best chance of dealing with the issues we deal with as a species is to recognize our common plight, erase the arbitrary racial/nationalistic/cultural labels, and begin working together to rein in consumption and intelligently manage our global population.
A few decades ago in the days of CB radios, a truck driver said to me one of the most profound things I've ever heard:
"May you live as long as you want to, and want to as long as you live."
10-4 good buddy.
59acres? Where?!? 😰 🤔🤔🤔
Slot, I don't believe in god, you pathetic brainwashed fool. now go back in your truck, 10-4 buddy ...
"Assholes such as yourself are the reason hatred is... " - who is the one showing hatred?? "I wish your kind would immediately die off in massive numbers." versus what I wrote. lol...gimme a break...
So you do see the irony of your comments...you are the violent one...
RIP Hans, thank you for all the wisdom. It was really a punch-in-the-gut feeling when you wished you could live for 15 more years, but unfortunately fate had a different plan. Once, again I sincerely thank you for your efforts in making us understand the world a bit better.
Ugohigh 1 person per m2 in 200 years my arse. Try counting.
If you believe any of the VERBAL CRAP this guy spews, then watch THIS video about ACTUAL crap in India. That is the result of massive overpopulation. th-cam.com/video/V35Vw29tay0/w-d-xo.html
Russ G, you obvious didn't watch this whole video, at about the 11 minute mark he starts explaining that in poorer countries, specifically African counrties but can also include India the population is massively increasing because parents value having multiple children over what their children do.
Ugohigh, You're either a troll or an idiot. I'm going with troll because no one is stupid enough to say the shit you do.
I hope he is burning in HELL for his obvious lies, as India and Africa are all exponentially increasing their population. Look at any graph it has sped up, not slowed down thus far.
"poor women are clever otherwise they are dead" holy shit
I wonder what that means, would you mind explaining?
He is referring to women in Africa being clever about reproducing more kids to survive in the future because they know that if they don't reproduce they will die due to not having the support children will provide in the future, does that make sense?
@@ultraviolet.catastrophe You could survive being dumb in a wealthy country. But being dumb in poor country is killing. Poverty is more selective, more Darwinian environment.
Both of your replies actually make sense
@@SF-ow5ru yes perfectly
Rest in peace you beautiful human being.
Hans Rosling, you have showed me so much, and given me hope with that insight. Thank you.
Who else thought this was a Ted Talk at first
You mean it’s not a ted talk?
What?
Fuck me, duped again!!!
that's where I first saw hans
Confused Captain - it was a Hans Talk!
me
I wish he could've followed statistics for fifteen more years.
rest in peace:(
RIP
Oof did he croak?
@@ubberJakerz, why does no one every just say "die"? Why always use some metaphor?
@@d.lawrence5670 because English is more interesting than that
I'd be more engaged in lectures if more lecturers wielded spears.
HAHA haha funny 😂😂♦️♦️♦️
:D
gold comment
😂🤣😂🤣♥️🤣😂🤣😂
Thank you for causing me to literally laugh out loud.
Ha ha yeah Made me laugh like mad and big grin :D This must be the bloke who manufactured the coronarvirus and let it out just so he was proved right!
Hans is an example why we have to increase life span of older people. Once you live your life and find your passion you become a jewel in the crown of human society. Hans, you have done really good job. Best work I ever seen explaining it. I am so sorry that you will not do that anymore. Adieu, au revoir, bon voyage, farewell, goodbye and godspeed old chap...
Hans Rosling. We miss him.
I really wish he had lived to 100 and beyond.
Genius!
True! Rest in peace, Swedish National Treasure!
Bill Gates probably had him killed. Watch “Black Code” on Bible4truth channel.
I'm a historian and this guy is missing so many points, that it is ridiculous.
@@petegrusky2715 Educate us.
My appreciation of Hans Rosling is not a blind adulation. I would love to hear the alternate perspectives.
@@BikashKumar-pz8hc I think he refers to the previous comment about "Black Code" on Bible4truth but I might be wrong. If that's not the case, I agree with you.
"Conceptually, children are moving from Asia to Africa".
I love when a high level thought such as this is grasped and articulated in such a concise manner.
TheRandomest and he subtly took shots at eugenicist psychopaths like the billionaire tyrants who are robbing Africa and want the people out of the way (dead).
@@faithalonekjv5123 And stimulating emigration instead of improving their home countries.
I finished "Factfulness" just now, really great book written by Rosling. I loved the book so much; it is full of useful, interesting and important information. RIP, Hans Rosling!
Thanks for the tip, I just ordered the book.
Amazing, simply amazing. The best presentation of the demographical shift I've seen. And such a resilient man 8:14 :-)
Edit: Just learned that he's passed away... Rest in piece
The world will naturally adjust as scarcity arises or at least that is the hope so long as sudden scarcity doesn't occur things should run relatively smoothly with limited resources.
lol if thats on a EU standard how many americans can the world sustain? 2 million ? :P
_Actually the world can sustain 326,000,000+ Americans as of 2018._
www.livepopulation.com/country/united-states.html *xD*
Andriy Vasylenko oh man that sucks. He gave a great Ted talk. I love this guy.
Assuming we don't live at a higher standard of living on fewer resources. If you put solar panels on your roof, have cars that last longer, lightbulbs that take less electricity...
My geography teacher always gets excited about this man, even after showing the same video each year 1000x
Seda den Boer Lol mine aswell
be careful. he says many bad things; "this is why we should support UNICEF". he pretends that his calculations include epidemic disease, political conflict and big climatic events. but they don't. i promise that, when you are older, the geography teacher will seem stupid.
What age exactly
1. in this video, Rosling promotes UNICEF. about 20 years ago UNICEF was converted (by america) from promoting the health and prosperity of children to preventing african babies. they want a "clean genocide". powerful governments don't want to lose control of africa's colossal wealth.
2. when you have your own child OR have serious responsibility for a child OR love a child.... then you will understand the beauty and importance of family life. you will understand how it is central to happiness, culture and civilisation. you will know that these propagandists are more than idiots. they are genocidal psychopaths.
3. perhaps you think i have jumped to an extreme conclusion. perhaps you think i need to be more flexible and open to ideas.... open to possibilities. i promise, you will grow older and recognise these evil stinking shit people. you will recognise it instantly.
so you're saying that UNICEF is being used as some kind of tool to commit genocide for the sake of the wealth of the western world?
remember my geography teacher showing us his website a couple years back - inspired me to look into demographics and development - now doing a BSc in Geography - thank you for the inspiration, Hans
geography can afford website and engineering and polytechnics don't have a website ? who is fooling whom ?
Will remain immortal by his works. What an excellent educator with the most amazing and simplistic way to share knowledge. We truly miss you Sir.
Sadly, Hans Rosling didn't make it into the 75-90 age group he hoped for. Hans Rosling: 1948-2017.
:´(
At least predicted correct life expectancy.
Amazing.
Ugohigh, I've never seen so much cancer in one comment.
I was raised Jewish and last time I checked I have no plans of world domination at the moment, though that might change with morons like you running around.
What happens to people like me? Nobody knows that? Nobody has family that are undertakers? They die. We die. Old people die.
Doesn't mean we won't miss you Hans Rosling.
We already do.
@@LoisoPondohva He didn't get his extra 15 years
RIP
I am actually an undertaker...
What a brilliant educator! I only learned he's left us just after watching this video. I'm really sad a wonderful mind and a kind hearted person like him is not among us anymore. But his fantastic work will always live. Thank you for everything, professor Hans Rosling.
I cant stand this guy
I miss professor Hans. What a great person, lecturer and professional. RIP. ✨🙏🏼
Excellent presentation; most thought-provoking...
8:12 We all wish he could've had 15 more years :(
Esteban Cabrera
Yeah, I feel bad because he didn’t ask for much
He knew he was at the one of he's life span
15:48 I got so sad here. I also hope you could have got there. You were an amazing man
mmm ;(
Not me
Hans Rosling was simply the best. His death was a great loss to the world and to policy making. I would love to have had his take during the Covid pandemic.
15:50 Hearing him say "I hope to be this one" just runs a sliver through me...
I would love to have a cup of coffee with this gentleman. I sure hope the young people close to him are soaking up everything he has to offer our generation. We need more minds like his.
Look on the TED site at the video Hans Rosling
TED@Cannes Global population growth, box by box, from 8 mins 10 seconds in.
"We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things."
One bad consequence on limiting nr of children to 1 per family, is that it creates an upside down pyramid, where young must support a huge number of old people.
They'd die eventually
The productivity for every person is much higher today than yesterday. Fewer people produce more. We have machines. We do not need many young to support few old. The population can decline without starving out our seniors.
Birth control is not a mistake. Couple can get one or two kids but our problem is we are living in a nuclear family system! We won't like joint family system! Joint family was strength, knowledge and profitable in the past!? (pls visit www.questmenism.com).
And that men can't find partners - like in China
also as we've seen in china it leads to too many males not beeing able to find women because they didn't get to live...
Hans was the Mr Rogers of Statistics to me. He was a brilliant man.
At the end of the day, I hope he's right. There's something genuine and good about his passion for these topics and it's a damn shame he never got those fifteen years to keep on studying those statistics.
He gets closer and closer to being correct with every year, and with the human population reaching a balance for the first time in its history the only questions that remain are what we should do to ensure our planet can house us all. This isn't a conversation of apocalypse, just a question of how to live better.
Earth has enough resources to feed 30 Billion People according to researchers from USSR.
He's not right, though. And he wasn't honest about the growth "not being exponential". When humans went from 1-4 billion, that was definitely exponential growth, because it always took fewer and fewer years to grow by one billion. The rate at which humans are being added, plus the relatively low death rates in the world mean that globally, we will definitely grow well past 11 billion humans. There is simply no mechanism in place to stop this growth. There are 80 million more humans added every year, and this rate is not abating -- if anything, it's increasing.
@@Panamenya There is a mechanism, and it's called people being better off. It leads to people having less children and the birth rate declining. And as for the statistics I can find online, the rate is decreasing, albeit slowly, for now.
@@Panamenya And as for the statistics, search for "human population growth 2023" and click on the website named "MacroTrends" and you will find the stats.
People conflate "being better off" as the reason why people have fewer kids. Typically, it's the other way around: people gain the wisdom (typically via education, or a living example in their lives) to have fewer kids to increase their prosperity, they delay childbearing, and when they have kids, they have a few -- not a lot. And then they become more prosperous, on average. But people conflate the action with the result and say that the prosperity is what caused the lower birth rates.
There is a feedback loop effect, whereby more prosperity leads to more education and more examples of lower birth rates that result in prosperity. And more prosperity tends to lean toward keeping the birth rates low, in order to hold onto that prosperity well into the next generations. @@mism847
Great explanation, means that over time number of people on earth is a function of:
1. rate of birth => generation
2. rate of death => de-generation.
3. life expectancy affects balancing time of the equation.
I am now watching Birthgap- a Childless World, which presents a view that the world will be faced with a new challenge of an increasing ageing population and fewer younger people to work and provide a tax base for services to the elderly as well as people to provide those services. Would have loved to have heard Hans’ views.
More lecturers need to use a medieval spear to give their presentations. Love it!
It’s a pity we lost this guy. He was a great teacher. And here he’s absolutely right.
When I saw the spear at the start, I knew this was going to be awesome presentation.
I'm so sad he died so young :( but he was a truly extraordinary man
Reason why he died: oy vey Shut IT DOWN!
Man I didn’t know 69 was the new young
I remember my Grandma talking about it. She had 8 kids. 3 survived to adulthood.
What an amazing speaker. I really, really like listening to his lectures.
The ability to extract nitrogen from the air and use it in synthetic fertiliser was the primary trigger that allowed population explosion, without that there would not be enough food to support it.
As a person who has been poor in Africa from Africa; Children are a blessing they are an addition to the work force, they increase the odds of your survival more security, more farmers.
The odds are higher that one of your children will marry into a wealthy family or will get lucky and become rich to help all the others out of poverty.
But if you have one child and he or she dies or is "wayward" refuses to work and leads a reckless life you will suffer because elderly homes are not a thing in Africa, children take care of their elderly themselves; a 90year old may live with any of his children who is rich enough or may life with the youngest or poorest child while the richer children send money for both their father and their brother or sister taking care of him. That's how it works down here.
Don't be scared we are not having many children to conquer the world after all we leave the lowest carbon trail, we have played no part in causing global warming. It's only natural that if I know my fruit tree is very likely to die before bearing fruits I should plant 2 or 3 to increase the odds of survival don't listen to fear mongers.
Asians on average are family-oriented and children are seen as the parents' pension plan and nursing homes. It is only in the West where affluent societies can afford welfare and nursing homes. I believe, Hispanics have the same family-oriented culture as Asians.
Notsomuch a “family orientated culture” but poorer economies
@@cw205mi16 Asians are family-oriented whether you like it or not. Yes, there are poor Asian countries but the rich Asian countries still value family compared to Westerners. That is why Asians in the US are also family-oriented, whether they are rich or poor families.
Westerners value individualism more, on the other hand. So personal space and individual freedom are very important to them. It is just a different mindset.
It is also true that poor countries have no welfare. In the past, even Western countries value the family because there was no welfare so the children are needed to take care of their aging parents. So your notion about poorer economies is valid in this scenario. It does not negate the truth that Asians are still family-oriented even in richer economies so family ties are very strong among Asians compared to their Western counterparts.
Asians are family oriented. It is mentioned in many of the comments. But it is not the full truth. At this moment Asian parents are family oriented but Asian children are not. Educated children are going to cities or to western countries to earn more leaving their old parents in villages to fight on their own. So why the next generation will have more children. They will have one or no children. The trend has started in large scale in India.
@@whatevergoesforme5129 I agree with you, and I'm qualified to know this.
Was he one of the best, most important and underrated speakers in our era? Sure enough. R.I.P. prof.Hans Rosling.
Such an interesting lecture. So sad when I looked up the fellow and realized he passed away.
I have been saying this forever!
I am glad I found someone more intelligent and eloquent to show people👍
He didn't take into count the increases in birthrate experienced in some middle East countries. It was a cute presentation method though. Major problem was an indepth discussion of what would make the "Linear" birthrate decide to become exponentially negative. I don't know the time period of his work but I do know the politicians are continuing to support increasing growth.
I had the pleasure of watching this lecture in its whole live, but in Swedish in Sweden, 2015. Now more than ever, we miss Hans and his work. Reast in Peace 💙
Thanos has another solution
Hahaha
Lenin had proposed better solution for all of us.
All holliwood movies have a message from the illuminati.
Thanos was trying to please mistress death not population control learn ur canon nub
@AzrielJale
The movies aren't canon.
someone get this man a laser pointer
in his next life maybe
It shows his intellectual understanding of things...
My great grandparents lived to 90 and both chain smoked. My grandpa died at 86 My grandma is 78. All older than the “life expectancy” of 71 years. Our childrens children will be older than a hundred
My grandmas died at 43 & 78. Grandad's roughly the same. Life expectancy is falling, even in 1st world countries. Yes, we'll see some records broken with longevity but it won't be global.
I don’t know if I can agree with that statement. Years ago people worked hard to make a living and now it is a lot of desk jobs that allow people to not get their heart rate up. I’m no doctor but just seeing my ancestors who were farmers living just as long as the current generation make me wonder about the longevity of life.
I recently heard that as we reached 8 billion and then India surpassing China in population, the world birth rate is finally slowing down in 2023.
I'm impressed with the late Prof Rosling's analysis and I am largely convinced by his presentation, despite the fact that I broadly accept the Malthusian notion that populations tend to increase in line with the available resources to sustain them (primarily food). However, I do see some problems with Prof Rosling's analysis in practice, not necessarily because he was wrong about the overall figures but because I think these figures alone are only a part of the problem. As was clearly illustrated in the presentation, population growth is very uneven and declines in births in one region are compensated for by continued growth in other regions (Africa primarily). It is suggested that even growth in Africa will fall dramatically once mortality rates amongst the young decline and access to contraception and health services will kick in and do the job. Well, I am far from convinced that mortality rates will continue to fall and I suspect that health services in poorer regions of the world will not improve, and may even decline rapidly (as they have in, for instance, Afghanistan) as the carrying capacity of the globe (food production and distribution) is disrupted by Climate Change and the famines and wars and mass movements of people that will follow. The global population may stabilise at around eleven thousand million, as the Professor said, but if large parts of the world become effectively uninhabitable, and the knock on effects of the resulting refugee crises spread chaos into neighbouring regions (for example, Liberal Democracy in Europe will not survive if there are a hundred million desperate and starving refugees climbing over the barbed-wire border fences in the East and paddling across the Mediterranean on anything that floats in the South). We have to stabilise the population, but on a downward trajectory, because accepting a figure of eleven thousand million when we have no plans in place to feed such a number, let alone see that they have access to contraception and health services, is a recipe for disaster. Whether we can do any of this in practice is highly debatable and personally I am not optimistic, but giving up all attempts would be a counsel of despair and would seal the fate of out children and grandchildren, and I'm not yet prepared to do that.
@Charles White
"Africa is currently flooding the world with migrants, whilst they continue to increase their own population."
I'm afraid I smell a whiff of racism here, but let's give Mr White the benefit of the doubt and address his point. Africa is not "flooding" the world: the poorer regions of the globe are the most impacted by the Global Warming, and resultant Climate Change that Europe and North America have inflicted on us all. These disastrous impacts will make much of the world uninhabitable and so of course people will flee the famines and wars and societal collapse this will bring. As I said in my original comment, there is a massive job to do in trying to stabilise the situation and I am not that optimistic, but it is the responsibility (both moral and practical) of the richer parts pf the world to get together and work out where and how to put in the necessary resources. it is not just 'their' problem... it is 'our' problem, and to be blunt, we have more to lose than the poor sods in Africa so we'd better get on with it... sharpish!
Next Ted Talk: 'Why the population won't reach 8 billion'
Host: "WW3"
(Credits)
@@jciglesias7928 + bacteria develops antibiotic resistance...
Tell them to hurry with that talk. We r now at 7.8 billion.
We are well past 8 billion and heading toward 9 billion in 14 years. The threat that is bigger than WW3 is the growing human population. You could say the growth is slowing down, but it's still growing nevertheless. Within the lifetimes of everyone here, it will never decrease, only ever increase.
I am also skeptical of his extremely optimistic prediction that it will somehow never surpass 11 billion. Sounds like a fantasy. A nicely presented one, but not congruent with reality or human behavior, unfortunately. Since all of us will be dead by the time it does reach 11 billion, we, personally, will never know. But people born three generations from now will find out how wrong and cutely optimistic this talk was, as they're drowning in people and human-generated waste, and as the population continues to rise.
Remember that the ONLY real solution for the problem of human overpopulation is our own collective, voluntary, conscious self-restraint in reproduction. If we don't learn this and act on it, we will not ever overcome this problem. We must voluntarily decide, together, all over the world, to reduce the number of births to below the number of deaths, every year. And we need to do it for a long, long time. Probably a couple of centuries, to get to sustainable levels where there is plenty of room for wildlife and some room for human-centric spaces.
Rest in Peace Hans. You were an amazing Teacher!
6:10 "Old people like us - we die."
Which Hans did, in 2017.
Sadly, he didn't live another 15 years.
What I know is that in my country, the philippines, population keeps on growing and if we dont control it, our countrys resources will not be able to support its people.
Your country, my country, and all other countries are unable to support it's people with their RENEWABLE resources. The non-renewables will run out and the population will be killed back to the level that the renewables can keep alive.
Yes, it's a pity that a man with such charisma (and supported by such tech wizardry) was telling us not to worry about the thing that is affecting humanities demise.
Asia is not too bad, of course, the Philippines, Indonesia could do better, but Africa is the craziest, they are still having 5-6 children. What's worse is the majority of them don't think it's a problem.
@@baxakk7374 Asia have 5 billion population Africa population is equal to China or India or China population is even more so I think Asia is the problem here because u have to combine north ,south America plus Europe plus Africa and still Asia is still leading
He's right, you don't FORCE people not to have children ... You pay them.
That's what he said.
We now pay folks to have children.
Not literally and not all of us. The Chinese actually paid people not to have children for many years. What we need to do is create incentives for people not to have children, especially in parts of the third world, where the resources to feed, clothe, and properly educate them don't exist.
The Chinese also kidnapped women late in pregnancy (like 8 months+) and forced them to have abortions against their will. Not a pretty situation.
No. And you point is what?
Very smart man, and still my guru for data visualisation. Two things he did not anticipate, nearly a decade ago: (i) that the "2 childrens" would actually become one child or less throughout much of the world, inverting the pyramid, and (ii) that life expectancy would increase through a concentrated program of radical life extension. So his blocks stack higher, but they are also thinner at the bottom.
would like to know the source of second point
Wow this is an issue that has been discussed by philosophers for hundreds of years (the best and most recent probably being Bergson's treatment of overpopulation towards the end of his oeuvre), and yet in one 15 minute video this guy has somehow assuaged the concern (even dread) that has accumulated in my mind about this issue; about sex, religion, fear of death etc... this is a wonderful video!
An interesting presentation. I live in a rural Kansas small town where it's still common where those who com from a family that had 7 children have 7 children themselves. One would think this town would have more than 2000 residents. Because this are doesn't have the resource to support such a population there is an out migration, where kids go to consume resources elsewhere.While there is clearly exponential population growth in many area, I will no longer use exponential growth for, rather simply say ing unsustainable population growth.. There are simply areas of the planet where people will not use family planning at all of any sort. Of core an ubexpecteted atronomical or geological event could be our doom, but humanty could be the cause of the end of humanity. The planent does care it can have a natural death, not missing us at all until then.
This guy looks like a warrior with that spear.
R.I.P.
One less idiot spreading lies and nonsense. May he burn forever in a lake of fire
That's why religion is bad. ()Sven()
I miss Hans Rosling . I heard of him much too late, and then he was gone. An amazing chap.
I wish I found out about him sooner but I am only a teen but I’ll make sure to continue his legacy if I become a scientist or philosopher
The world need to see this. 💕
This is the greatest comment section I've ever seen in my life.
Came here after watching Utopia on Amazon Prime and it gives me hope.
But Utopia DID address this also. He said that by the time the world population stabilises, all wildlife would be gone. Also population stabilising at 11 billion is not something to feel happy about, since that's even more population than what it is right now.
Hans died at 68. Thank you Hans for the education, positiveness and humor.
I imagine Hans arrived from a whaling expedition to give this talk.
Josh Hodkinson 😂👍🏻 So TRUE!!
RIP Hans Rosling. What an amazing man
WHAT? He died?
He actually exploded into a mass of wrying babies. "This is OK, we are the 3 billion." The babies are quoted as saying, "We are the new balance."
I vote for pulling out !
Fools..all of you. Population will die a slow agonizing death due to starvation
@@jerrymalone1100 "Fools.. all of you!" hahah.. are we larping?
“I vote for pulling out” ..I vote you should too.
Just wear condoms you nasty disease spreading fucks.
@@BulletGramm your sentence can only come from a virgin, or a fcker that has never fcked without condom. oof man really sorry for u, must be a hard life
What a great man, I hope our education system shows his video. Make the world great again
I read his book.. watched his video... then I realized that he died. RIP legend
Hurts BAD knowing we will never get to meet him.
WHT is the name of his book?
Love how TH-camrs are always smarter than anyone in the videos they are watching. I no longer watch the videos of those buffoons (thanks @David Franco Jr). Instead, I chose my videos based on the click bait title, then I soak up all the knowledge the geniuses of the TH-cam Verse are leaving the comment section. I have learned so much from them.
/s
Sir, that's a best clear explanation i have heard... Thank u..
Why are all of Hans Rosling's lectures recorded so quietly? He's clearly not whispering.
"Take away the child allowances, the subsidies for the day care centers and school (...)"
Actually, you don't have to do that in Sweden. Swedish families are having one child per family with taking away all that. What you need to do is close the immigration. Not even close, but limit to a small number of people who would be checked in advance to fit the criteria beneficial to the country. (Like having a clean crime record.)
For many decades I saw the overpopulation as a hopeless tragedy. And then I noticed that in Sweden, France, England, Italy, Spain, Japan, and many other places people are having 2 children or less, and the actual populations are beginning to go down. So I allowed myself a little bit of hope.
And then all the rulers of all these countries opened their borders and let everyone in. It was one huge ... (insulting gesture) in the face of environment, and many other things.
Today, environmentalism has become the largest corrupt enterprise of all. Nobody means what they say, nobody cares about the environment, all they care about is getting money for themselves.
Thank god. I didn't think there was going to be one sane person in the comments.
This guy comes across as a lovely old man and a bit doddery but I imagine he has discussed genocide by different means quite a few times behind closed doors.
It was a huge insulting gesture at the face of the native people too, who now have to face a heightened risk of rape, assault and homicide alongside gang activity comprised of almost exclusively immigrants (in my country, the street gangs are 95% foreign-born/second generation immigrants) if they can't afford to live in an area free of such actors, like the politicians that decided to swing the doors open.
While he was a brilliant man and made incredible speeches on this topic, it still doesn't eliminate the problem of us exaspirating our natural resources :/
that's a good discussion for another time but, rest assure, there's plenty for everyone.
Dan Tyler oh don't worry, at the rate were destroying our wildlife it won't be long in the grand scope of things that we won't have oxygen to breath
David Stephens So, libs might just think ALL people need to go ahead and breath deep of car exhaust?
Dan Tyler your a delusional idiot
Reinhard Heydrich lack of oxygen through deforestation is what I am implying, but I shall check out your statement :)
i think its funny that people don't realize most people don't want to live past 70
Why?
@@mendax2251 would you rather go to the funerals of everyone you love or have all the people you love at your funeral?
@@iordanneDiogeneslucas I think I would prefer to be alive even if I don’t have my friends to enjoy life with
Not me. I want to reach 100+ years old before I DIED. 95-110 years old is good enough for me!
Shocking and truly eye opening and thought provoking analysis of World's growing population.
Here,in Greece, because our population is in decline,we have a say: One for the mother,one for the father,and one for our cantry.... but today,we have one or none . very few couples have 3...4 is the rare exception. Sad.
Brilliant, age brings knowlege and common sense and this man has it.
Floki sounds too much like this guy, it's awesome.
Rip Hans
He was exceptional speaker!!! I and the most of the world will miss him!!
2:10 for those of you doing Meth xD
2:26 "But there's so much crack." I see what he's driving at, world drug war.
Hahahahaha
Lmfao
He said math not meth lol Swedish accent :)
@@King-mj2bn crap not crack
wtf why does he have a spear
asking the big questions
My first thought! ;-) an old school laser pointer B-)
rimax82 Also doubles as remote control for the projector screen and moveable blackboards.
He has a fixation on the MS Windows black arrow pointer
That question can only be answered with another question: Why don't you? Spears are awesome.
Yes but do we really need 10 billion people?
No, but the only way to stop before 10 billion is killing old people or offering family planning in Africa. Unless you volunteer yourself?
Of course not. We don't need more than 8 billion, but here we are, at well over 8 billion now.
Some modern predictions are now showing that it may not even exceed 10 billion, with the current rate of decline in the global fertility rate (2021 was approximately 2.3 births per woman) and so some argue that as the birth rate drops below replacement of 2.1, the population will decline and now many think the global population will peak around 2080 at just under 10 billion.
i wish this dude could be around to see what the world is gonna be ;-;
Boy it's a good thing anti vaxers are working on that population problem for us
if you want to vaccinate, do it
but you have no right to pressure other parents into it
we are individuals first and society second
what are the odds of getting smallpox in an environment that has no smallpox? What are the odds of getting smallpox in an environment where everyone is vacccinated with a solution that has a 1 in 300 000 chance of having active smallpox?
@@BobSmith-rs7tn you realise that theres not enough small pox in the vaccination to reach the critical contraction point and as well as this there's a 30% increase in Europe of small pox since the beginning of the anti vaxers movement
@@BobSmith-rs7tn The vaccine itself can cause infection, hundreds of people have been infected by vaccines and some have permanent disabilities from it.
Vaccines are made from a weak version of the actual disease, to teach your body how to kill it.
Its not perfect there is risk attached to it.
And even if it was perfect, people still have a right to not take part, even if it dooms the rest of society in the long run.
@@lebeanisedwards448 I'm quoting the cdc official's site on side effects for each vaccine... so.. don't really care about your guesses bud
Extremely simplified. What he shows is if nothing changes. Climate will take care of the change unfortunately.
fortunately
Climate always changes
😁
@Nils-Erik Olsson, that's why he used a spear not a laser pointer Quote Vince Fagan
there is no climate change, there is only human geoengineering so they can put up the carbon tax.
You do realize warmer climate actually as been a population and prosperity boom in the past right?
I had a very long discussion about this last night. I had to point out that we need less population drastically, but we can’t just eliminate or force the population down. My immediate follow up was that education and ease of access to contraceptives is currently our best option.
It's March, 2019 "Where are we now in population?"
Interesting talk, but what is his basis for assuming that average lifespan will not greatly exceed 71 years and that child growth will stabilize? For the latter, he appears to be projecting the European and North American demography on Asia and Africa, but can we really do so without taking into account sociological and cultural differences? Also, aren't we then assuming that poverty will end in Africa? Especially that last assumption is not at all in line with the current economic developments.
Enki Denys the lifespan won’t greatly exceed 71 because 71 is already pushing a humans body to its limit.
Your body does not really work past some point, everything stops working, the risk for cancer exponentially increases, your immune system turns into shit, broken bones don’t heal together anymore.
71 is already extremely old but it is as old as you can really get. At some point you won’t get an old car to work without replacing all of its components. And I wanna see you replace every single human cell.
The population precident has been universal. From the U.S (who used to be the mass breeder of the day), to China, to India, to Iran, to South Africa.
There are plenty of demonstrations of population groups living on average 10, 15, and 20 years older than 71. Diet, and lifestyle have a huge impact on lifespan.
Averages are deceptive. Reduce the child mortality rate in Africa, and it's age of death becomes very similar to the West.
That's exactly what I thought. He's making a few major assumptions on the global scale. Several nation's throughout Africa are modern and bringing modernity to the surrounding countries, as well as Asia. It's not that they have more children, but more will survive and grow older as healthcare improves across their continent.
I also think his graph is extremely misleading right off the bat, it appears like Africa is smaller in population than both Europe and the America's. It's as large if not larger than the other two in terms of population.
He makes a great argument but I can't get past some major assumptions
his example of love and sex and reproduction is an excellent point.
The problem people have thinking of population is that no matter what your economic system , it is dependent on the population of people 15 to 40, max. Productivity, work, economic output, is totally dependent on the young generation, so if your youth decline, so does everything else.
I wonder if those older and older and older people eat and consume earth resources less and less and less than those people who lived hundreds of years ago. I doubt.
Mika Harju Maybe the same?
We have to keep in mind, people have not lived as long, long ago, as they do today.
So, as people got old thousands of years ago, they probably just got tired and died.
Today, people stop working and continue to live on and on.
Well technology allows us to be better stewards than our ancestors. For instance not many people know, that there are more trees in the northern hemisphere than at any point in the last 500 years. Not having wood be the primary energy source for literally every human activity coupled with a big bang in our understanding of ecology has facilitated this change.
Shit Poster, you got a good point. I wasn't aware they did a tree count count before the conquistadors came to the New World. Keep up the good work clearcutting of those old growth forests
People had no means of stopping wildfires back then, they relied almost solely on wood for shelter, warmth and cooking, there were no laws regarding clearcutting, you dont have to have a numerical survey to know that. In most of the northern hemisphere logging is heavily controlled and action plans to reestablish the forest have to be in place before the first tree drops. Selectively cutting emergent and canopy trees can actually be a boon to the forest as a whole, creating oasis' for animals that depend on the herbaceous layer.
Where I live (US, Maine) most of my state would be inaccessible without logging roads and we would be defenseless against a fire that could wipe out 10s if not 100s of thousands of acres.
KamakaziOzzie right! Europe is tiny and inconsequential, and most of Russia/Asia never calls them "trees". Hey, 500 years ago the Americans didn't even call them trees in EITHER 'hemisphere'.
Very interesting and presented well, thank you.
Somebody get him a damn lazer pointer...
a spear is much more convenient
yeah he is Spartan
ELISA a laser pointer would be way more difficult to follow.
Hans Rosling was brilliant. He really open my eyes on aspects of statistics. Press F.
Normie
@@Perririri Tryhard
science: 11 billion ppl
corona: hold my beer
edit...it wasn.t a statement or some prediction. i found it funny to say corona and beer in such a comment,cause there is corona beer,so...
in fact we are too many for this world,there is a plan for decimation,that.s not a secret any more. if corona is one,i don.t know
Florin Natu you might see this funny but it’s actually true. Coronavirus covid19 was made for this purpose
@@Abadi881 while i can.t deny it COULD be true, you can.t proof it is. plans of cutting back the earth pop exist for a long time now...but because war won.t work any more and would prob.w
destroy everything...farmacy,food.ind.and bio.weapons stepped in. if covid is one,maybe we.ll never know
@Florin Natu the problem is we can not prove it. But sometimes we should act based upon the worst of people intentions. Humans are no longer in favor of humanity.
@@Abadi881 they never were,friend. with some exceptions,it.s only about surviving and living of the back of somebody. you and me do that too,without even knowing. world peace and bullshit like this were never an option
I am 70% sure the CoVid will boost the growth rate: a] improved social cohesion b] quarantine leads to sex c] fewer contraceptives in quarantine d] less interruption options e) less traffic and its poisons in the air
this guy could do battle with Aquaman with that pitchfork!!
Stay frightened you nebbish cretin.
Wouldn't it be interesting if he could provide an analysis of the peak
populations of some other of nature's species. It's as though he thinks
humans live in a grand isolation. And ALL without mention of Haber
Bosch.
Considering were the only species that's invented condoms, fertiliser & vaccines I'm not sure what he'd hope to learn by looking at other species.
Children conceptually moving to poorer regions in the world just absolutely breaks my heart! We need to ensure that those regions are developed and educated as soon as possible!