I've absolutely loved this series. James is just such a great guest. Insightful technical knowledge and clearly a smart investor. I hope we hear a lot more from him. Excellent
I'm here for Legolas again! 🤘 Jokes aside, James has been an amazing guest. Extremely concise and intelligent on the subject matter. Felt like I've went through a crash course on Tesla's neural nets.
The discussion at 17:00 is interesting. I feel like people don't choose to pay extra for abs or airbags in the car because they drive the car. But in an airplane they don't have control over flying. Maybe since people control the car, their brains make safety seem less significant.
Very true. When we are in control we way over estimate safety even knowing the statistics. When you are out of control you way over estimate the threat even knowing the statistics. Being able to advertise the safest system will be a feature people pay for.
When we purchase a car, we're buying a product, and there are lots of factors to consider. But when we buy an airline ticket, we're buying a service, and there are fewer factors to consider. Safety becomes a more important factor for the service.
Hi Dave. Thank you for doing a great job to interview experts in trading (Emmett) and AI (James Douma). Can you interview someone who is an expert in the energy aspect of the business (solar roof, battery, power wall, mega pack, etc). Thank you!
I recall Dave talking about that this was one "conversation/interview" broken into 3 parts. I would have never caught that they had the same shirts on!👍
@@youmakeitreal I only noticed because James Douma’s shirt has that crazy design on it. He kept changing from hair down and hair up, too, making it hard to determine if there were breaks.
Absolutely love it when you two get together! Incredible conversation and insights. Dave you always have such great questions and seem to get the best out of everyone you talk to, especially with James Douma! Excellent content.
Hey Dave, what if you and James spent a video creating a model between the two of you? Just for fun. You two can make the assumptions together perhaps, and try out multiple assumptions. Maybe during a livestream?
What will affect your future more? Getting an education and potentially a better payed employment, or investing what money you have in future technology?
Eddie, completely agree with you at 21' about the transparency of data. If it's known that riding in a Tesla is 10x safer then it's an information distribution problem.
@@macrumpton 100%. Great point. I think the level of disruption that will occur once cars become massively safer is tough to anticipate. This plus the idea that parking spaces/costs will greatly decrease. Some amazing disruption coming.
The owner vs fleet discussion at 51:00 is leaving out the added value of a lot of things. If you own a Tesla and plug it in,, you get vehicle to grid value via autobidder. You also get a value add via Tesla insurance if you own ICE and EV vehicles. You also get a value add to allow it on the taxi network. If you are a small business owner, it could act as a product delivery vehicle, no driver needed. All of the value add is compounded slightly even more if you are located rural. (imagine living "in the country" and your battery backup, energy production/storage and car are all the same thing for one price) Properly used and managed, owning a Tesla adds value and capabilities on many levels, even revenue.
Scaling is the key. Tesla ambitions is the driving force behind their success. Elon thinking globally, other locally. Locality is how Tesla will prove to the world that FSD is a reality. But, global market is what Elon has in mind. If you don’t think big you never be the on3 that dominates.
What a great conversation! I had so many thoughts whizzing through my head as you chatted about everything. I just found myself wishing I’d been there to join in the conversation. Far too many thoughts over that time-frame to write down here, but thank you so much for stimulating my brain so interestingly.
I'm pretty much saying the same thing many others have already said. But maybe it makes the algorithm recommend this to people who aren't aware of this awesome channel and series of interviews. Great interview, great guest. I've always liked Dave but I feel like lately he has really found his style, or rather polished it. These long form conversations with a host who is super analytical and critical but also super friendly and big hearted. Just pure gold. Thanks man!
This was incredible. Thanks Dave and James for making these debates/discussions. It provides not only a great analysis of FSD but also a deep dive in the technology. Can’t wait to see James’ model ;)
One line of questions I wanted to hear is how FSD would likely handle situations. Like a dog vs a soccer ball darting out. How would it react to a card board box. How would it ever make a right turn through a NY crosswalk. Would it honk. Does it always go the speed limit. Could it pull over on the sound only of a fire truck.
Watched all these with James. Super interesting. One problem though, I can't take my mind off he has those two wires going to the TV. Please can we get them put inside the wall. Thanks in advance. 😜
There's a ton of value in this series with James. I found equally fascinating the topics related to the nitty gritty details of the AI implementation and the more business oriented topics like company valuation. Thanks a lot for sharing it all!
Great stuff! Despite fast playing 1.25x, I’m lacking time to fully absorb information of these long form videos. What is the best way to capture the key essence? Dave Clips?
One scenario that I haven't seen in any discussion of scaling robotaxis is what would happen if other car manufacturers decide to license FSD. This would result in much faster growth of robotaxi supply, create a ceiling on the price of Tesla vehicles and faster than expected drop in robotaxi rates. Tesla would then be benefiting from licensing revenue and commissions from more robotaxis rather than higher profits per Tesla vehicle and higher commissions from fewer robotaxis.
Great episode, I love to watch you two talk for hours and I can’t wait until the next comes out. I would love to see his model and see the outrages numbers in it. Warren redlich has some really high numbers for the car sales alone without FSD and other parts too. Would love to see you three talk about your models and see who is right in 2030 😅
Incredible videos about FSD and the topic related! Please do more such wonderful videos. In the video there is a significant part discussing the potential variables, I would like to question the assumption of the future FSD with 2 points: 1. Humans are not always making rational decisions. FSD is not understandable for many many people, which can lead to fear. In a relatively small EV market about 20% pick rate of FSD in America, those people might be the ones who are the most adventurous and willing to try something new (can also explain the low FSD picking rate in China). Is cost alone a big enough factor for the rest of the population to change their mind and behaviour fast enough before the competition comes? Also, once FSD becomes more popular. There will be “accidents”. There are more than enough parties would like to make a big deal about anything related to Tesla. With the control of social media, making public opinion against Tesla FSD doesn’t seem impossible. 2. With a potential industry of this size, it is reasonable to assume it will become political. If some countries ask Tesla to share their tech for joining their market. What can Tesla do? Also, cyber security of the FSD system is also should be considered if the money involved will be this huge. How likely some countries will get/steal the tech and use their resources to create their own FSD and cars? Also, the discussion around FSD is focused around transportation of human. What about truck business? We know that truck business is still growing annually and the market cap is huge also. FSD won’t get tired and can work 24hrs. We can foresee Tesla will become the evil cooperation that destroy the livelihood of truck drivers and what is the impact politically? How about the potential future usages of solving the vision problem like military, robots or etc? I believe soon people will notice how different Tesla from OEMs. The questions above have some many variables that I don’t know how to measure the possibility.
My question is how the need to go anywhere will change over the next 10-20 years. I had a 25 mile round trip commute to work prior to Covid. That has been reduced to zero for myself and 95% of my fellow employees. Overall will there be an increase or decrease in the need to travel in the future and how does that factor into the need for FSD. Beyond that is the cost. Tesla is charging $10K for the package. That limits this feature to an elite group of individuals that can justify the cost at this point. While that cost is destined to come down there will need to be a very serious reduction to make this feature desirable for the majority of drivers to make the switch.
Great conversation. One critique I have on the prediction that $1 per mile will equal a $1million value of the car..working in the transportation industry for 10 years I’ve almost always had drive time in between rides where I’m not making any money. I believe Cathy wood has also recently brought this up
Hi Dave. Another great discussion thanks. One way to think about what Tesla will charge for FSD is to look at how much Space X charge to launch satellites. This is a similar circumstance because in this case Space X have an advantage with their reusable rockets that is unique and very hard to replicate quickly in the industry. Note that they are not giving as big a discount as they could, more they are maximising profit. Look up consumer surplus. My opinion is that Tesla will maximise profit while they can, most likely taking as slice of robotaxi ride fees and the charge will be slightly under the cost of traditional taxis, not significantly under. This would make the most sense strategically for Tesla as it will allow them to pursue other goals that they may have in their sights that will need significant capital such as doing something in the shipping industry. This is an area that need addressing as a matter of urgency if we are aiming to reduce CO2.
I could literally listen to Dave talk to James about Tesla for 100 hours - not all at once lol but inside of a couple of weeks, easy. I've been relistening to these episodes because there's so much to take in. I'm not even an TSLA investor yet!
I love how excited you get. The most expensive part of a car is the time of the driver. People don't believe it will happen. I know it will happen but I still can't get my head around it.
The taxi sector is 1 of 2 HUGE changes coming with autonomous vehicles. The other is autonomous DELIVERY/Transport. Purpose-built driverless drones for delivery of food, supplies, you-name-it is going to EXPLODE. Courtesy of the pandemic, places like Wal-Mart have went into overdrive with on-line shopping, delivery by autonomous vehicle is the no-brainer extension/change to driving over to the store to have them load it into your car.
Great stuff. Also you're forgetting about the freight and shipping market. FedEx/dhl will pay $200k-$300k on a autonomous delivery van. Also, ppl won't own private car if it's cheaper to ride hailing. Only fleet operators will own them as a business. No need for parking spaces = more real estate to build on. Tesla can also make the ride free and earn of google/ Facebook ads. Or a monthly subscription for rides for $100-200 a month.
Good discussion. My question is who would be the early adopter? My proposed guess is college students and airport travellers (early adopters for email and FaceBook). Airport travellers to New York might appreciate robo-taxi navigation to avoid $100 cab rides. Also the competition might be local buses with frequent stops, infrequent service and no weather protection at bus stops. In San Francisco the airport limo to the east bay suburbs is pricey. Weather might also allow competition against bicycles on rain and snow rain days.
What about autonomous trucking? This market isn't even discussed when talking about FSD but it's huge. Think about all the semi's driving autonomously around the world delivering goods.
James nailed an important point on perceived safety versus *actual* safety. I worked in the Navy's medical department for a decade, and am still surprised when I see people choose SUVs (even trucks) for "safety". The most lethal accidents come from rollovers, which high center of gravity vehicles like trucks and SUVs suffer from. The human body is not designed to be tossed around like a rag doll, end-over-end. Frontal collisions are a walk in the park compared to that. A similar issue happened with motorcycles. Every last one of our marines and sailors who rode insisted they were extremely cautious, and were also required by the military to take rider safety courses. Yet, we still had tons of paralyzed and killed servicemembers due to accidents. People incorrectly think that because THEY are safe, that they can prevent other people from being unsafe. One of my staff sergeants was an avid rider all her life, but was T-boned at an intersection from someone running a light. She's quadraplegic now, even though she was a safe rider.
It's simple. If you use your car for personal use, you tesla can offer fsd for a personal use price, limited to one per person. If you are buying for commercial use, then you pay the commercial price for the fsd portion, including a premium for better longer warranty. Either way, it's a win win situation for Tesla and it's customers.
Something to think about when factoring in robotaxi revenue. The car may have 1,000,000 mile battery, but would probably only have someone in it 50% of the time (has to drive to pick someone up). So a car going 100,000 miles a year may only collect revenue for 50,000 miles of it.
@@johnwasilenko170 I guess it’s a question of who owns the vehicle. If it’s fleet operators they will pay those cost. If it’s Tesla itself, they will have to cover those costs.
When they solve FSD we will see different vehicles from Tesla. 1 passenger, 2 passengers vehicles, much smaller and targeted for different needs. These vehicles can be modular to change cabin type/cargo etc, so it can go further with same capacity of battery and will be cheaper to build/maintain/operate. Those cars will not be owned by private users anyway.
Dave, enjoying the discussion with James very much! I was watching your discussion related to the cost and profit analysis of a possible subscription model of Tesla’s Robo taxi business scenario and wanted to chime in on something that wasn’t addressed in the discussion. Based on industry average, most mainstream auto rental companies rarely keep cars that are more than 2 years old. Once cars gets to that point, they are generally moved to their sales lots or auctioned off. If Tesla would operate their own fleet of cars, I imagine similar scenario would happen (also once the cars depreciates to a certain level, the less customer it will capture…or it will be removed from the rental/subscription market altogether and be off to a possible sales lot or be auctioned off). Wondering how that would affect the overall operations and projections when it comes to analyzing the subscription model. Also, in terms of comparison, I think the iPhone vs Tesla is an interesting one... iPhone being more than just a phone is analogues to Tesla being more than just a car.... I can see how Tesla can mimic their services model and increase their revenue through all the services it can provide (TBD) similar to how Apple is able to generate revenue through its services division....The car (not unlike iPhone) can serve as giant platform for all kinds of services including entertainment, all the apps to enhance the "in-car" experience, etc. Just curious how you or Jame would valuate or project the possible services portion of Tesla's revenue.
This is a great discussion, especially @30 mark when talking about the ability to compete "at that cost". Tesla is going to change the world if they get robotaxi right.
I love you guys and can't wait for each new "Interview" but I think looking at Robotaxis in a much too narrow view. Why should I own a car when I can call a Robotaxi anytime day or night no matter if I'm home or at the beach. Also, I'm now retired, what happens if I get to the point where I don't feel safe driving or even just driving at night. What am I willing to pay Robotaxi per mile if I don't own a car including insurance, excise or wheel tax, fuel etc.
When you drive a car, what mostly affect your safety, is how you drive, not the safety features of the car. In an airplane, or a robo-taxi, you give all your trust to someone, or something else. Statistics over car accidents include drunk drivers, bad drivers, drivers who fall asleep etc, so it will take a lot of trust to give over control to a robotic system, and statistics showing that it is very much safer than the average driver.
Thank you guys so much for this insightful information! I have one question regarding HD mapping. How do the companies deal with changing circumstances like roadworks when they scale? The roads alway change and who can keep track of those constant changes in a cost effective way?
Its so amazing that this stuff is available for free. And there is not even any adds. Thank you
This comment is under rated ☝☝
Dave is way too rich to care about ads. He seems to just care about educating people.
@@Kaodusanya Yes and I extremely thankful for the content he is providing.
Dave is so underrated. I’ve learned so much from him
You mean "ads" as in "advertisements".
I've absolutely loved this series. James is just such a great guest. Insightful technical knowledge and clearly a smart investor. I hope we hear a lot more from him. Excellent
I'm here for Legolas again! 🤘
Jokes aside, James has been an amazing guest. Extremely concise and intelligent on the subject matter.
Felt like I've went through a crash course on Tesla's neural nets.
James is an absolute dark horse. Dave, you have an insane knack for bringing out the best in people.
I agree.
My god these 3 episodes were completely next level, you are both legends thank you.
Been waiting for this episode. Thank you Dave & James. 😁
There are 2 things I hate about taxis: the cost and the drivers
What about the smell?
😂
The discussion at 17:00 is interesting. I feel like people don't choose to pay extra for abs or airbags in the car because they drive the car. But in an airplane they don't have control over flying. Maybe since people control the car, their brains make safety seem less significant.
Yeah, makes me think people may react to FSD like they do the planes since they won’t be “in control”.
Very true. When we are in control we way over estimate safety even knowing the statistics. When you are out of control you way over estimate the threat even knowing the statistics.
Being able to advertise the safest system will be a feature people pay for.
totally agree its about control, once you give control to some other entity safety becomes more important
Thought the same thing.
When we purchase a car, we're buying a product, and there are lots of factors to consider. But when we buy an airline ticket, we're buying a service, and there are fewer factors to consider. Safety becomes a more important factor for the service.
Hi Dave. Thank you for doing a great job to interview experts in trading (Emmett) and AI (James Douma). Can you interview someone who is an expert in the energy aspect of the business (solar roof, battery, power wall, mega pack, etc). Thank you!
don’t forget AutoBidder 👌
SparkSpread !
Is he locked in your basement 😂
Ha! I was thinking the same thing!
😂
James is incredible!
The most valuable Tesla channel in YT.
Thanks, i love these interviews. James is so humble and down to Earth, it's fascinating.
James is a brilliant mind who is really great at articulating an idea and getting to the point quickly while adding tremendous value.
Same clothes. This must have been a MARATHON conversation for all these episodes.
I recall Dave talking about that this was one "conversation/interview" broken into 3 parts. I would have never caught that they had the same shirts on!👍
@@youmakeitreal I only noticed because James Douma’s shirt has that crazy design on it. He kept changing from hair down and hair up, too, making it hard to determine if there were breaks.
@@youmakeitreal The shirt! Yes, Elon's been wearing it for so many shots. I wanna buy!
Excellent content, no BS, no ads. Love it.
These two are great together. Very grateful for this.
Love this series with James. Great insight and conversation. James is a great guest and need to come on to the show more often!
Absolutely love it when you two get together! Incredible conversation and insights. Dave you always have such great questions and seem to get the best out of everyone you talk to, especially with James Douma! Excellent content.
Thanks a lot Dave and James. You guys have no idea how great is the value your are bringing with these conversations.
*James Douma Interview*
When equipped:
+2 to intelligence
+5 to income
-1 to teslaQ
😂
Everytime I watch these type of interviews, I learn something. Thank you both
These conversations are GOLD. Thank you!
Couldn’t agree more. Best vid of the year. You guys are getting to Warren redlich level. He has some balls to come out with his projections.
Great comments: Thanks Dave for the excellent content and the absense of adds is appreciated.
Hey Dave, what if you and James spent a video creating a model between the two of you? Just for fun. You two can make the assumptions together perhaps, and try out multiple assumptions. Maybe during a livestream?
Do homework?
Or listen to James Douma talk about FSD?
This is a serious dilemma.
What will affect your future more? Getting an education and potentially a better payed employment, or investing what money you have in future technology?
@@Will-be-free Why not build the future technology
you will learn more listening to this conversation
Hopefully listen to things like this will help you understand the future better so you know what home work to do....
If you listen and write your essay, your teacher will be impressed by your 5000+ word plus script
Terrific interview, Dave! Thanks for introducing everyone to James. Fascinating -Chris
Cars becomes an enjoyable, productive experience. People will spend more time in cars.
I love that you want to have a discussion as opposed to being interviewed here. Two very knowledgeable people for this topic
No break req'd. You two are amazing! Keep it flowing!
Eddie, completely agree with you at 21' about the transparency of data. If it's known that riding in a Tesla is 10x safer then it's an information distribution problem.
When insurance companies start offering reduced rates for FSD cars (assuming it is on) then that will be another log on the fire.
@@macrumpton 100%. Great point. I think the level of disruption that will occur once cars become massively safer is tough to anticipate. This plus the idea that parking spaces/costs will greatly decrease. Some amazing disruption coming.
Oh, it’s you again. You’re killing it with the high quality content lately.
@Dan 13 Any reasons for your statement or just angrily shouting at the internet? 😅
@Dan 13 Because it’s one of the most interesting companies of our live time? 🤷🏻♂️
@Dan 13 so you’re insulting me now? How grown up and totally smart. I’ll just guess you don’t have any arguments then.
The owner vs fleet discussion at 51:00 is leaving out the added value of a lot of things. If you own a Tesla and plug it in,, you get vehicle to grid value via autobidder. You also get a value add via Tesla insurance if you own ICE and EV vehicles. You also get a value add to allow it on the taxi network. If you are a small business owner, it could act as a product delivery vehicle, no driver needed. All of the value add is compounded slightly even more if you are located rural. (imagine living "in the country" and your battery backup, energy production/storage and car are all the same thing for one price) Properly used and managed, owning a Tesla adds value and capabilities on many levels, even revenue.
James is so fun and kind!
Love the work you guys are doing:)
Scaling is the key. Tesla ambitions is the driving force behind their success. Elon thinking globally, other locally. Locality is how Tesla will prove to the world that FSD is a reality. But, global market is what Elon has in mind. If you don’t think big you never be the on3 that dominates.
Love this conversation! I was laughing at certain point, interesting back and forth
Thank you both! Greatly appreciate you sharing your knowledge and insight!
Absolutely incredible. Thank you for sharing guys.
This honestly is just a crazy conversation. It excites me for the future so much.
This was so informative and helpful, fantastic insight! TY!
Really, really great conversations. I learned a lot about FSD, from the technical but also the buisness side. Thanks Dave and James!!!
What a great conversation! I had so many thoughts whizzing through my head as you chatted about everything. I just found myself wishing I’d been there to join in the conversation. Far too many thoughts over that time-frame to write down here, but thank you so much for stimulating my brain so interestingly.
I'm pretty much saying the same thing many others have already said. But maybe it makes the algorithm recommend this to people who aren't aware of this awesome channel and series of interviews.
Great interview, great guest. I've always liked Dave but I feel like lately he has really found his style, or rather polished it. These long form conversations with a host who is super analytical and critical but also super friendly and big hearted. Just pure gold. Thanks man!
This was incredible. Thanks Dave and James for making these debates/discussions. It provides not only a great analysis of FSD but also a deep dive in the technology. Can’t wait to see James’ model ;)
Awesome episode guys! I learned about the value of Tesla today.
Force is strong with this modern Jedi!
One line of questions I wanted to hear is how FSD would likely handle situations. Like a dog vs a soccer ball darting out. How would it react to a card board box. How would it ever make a right turn through a NY crosswalk. Would it honk. Does it always go the speed limit. Could it pull over on the sound only of a fire truck.
Watched all these with James. Super interesting. One problem though, I can't take my mind off he has those two wires going to the TV. Please can we get them put inside the wall. Thanks in advance. 😜
I vey much appreciate how grounding y'all are! Please stay consistent with strong arguments and grounded reasoning and alternate hypotheses :)
There's a ton of value in this series with James. I found equally fascinating the topics related to the nitty gritty details of the AI implementation and the more business oriented topics like company valuation. Thanks a lot for sharing it all!
Great stuff! Despite fast playing 1.25x, I’m lacking time to fully absorb information of these long form videos. What is the best way to capture the key essence? Dave Clips?
Great topic(s), learnings, and discussion, much of that being a result of the symbiosis these two seem to have. Well done.
I just love interviews with James. Nice technical conversation without this typical Tesla fanboy BS.
Tesla will operate anywhere the competition tries to get established ... sucking the air out of their markets. Business 101.
James is the best guest ever!
Thank you!!! This interview series is a 10x for education on tsla :)
What an awesome dynamic you guys have now!! Great conversation !!!
Great conversation, thank you.
One scenario that I haven't seen in any discussion of scaling robotaxis is what would happen if other car manufacturers decide to license FSD. This would result in much faster growth of robotaxi supply, create a ceiling on the price of Tesla vehicles and faster than expected drop in robotaxi rates. Tesla would then be benefiting from licensing revenue and commissions from more robotaxis rather than higher profits per Tesla vehicle and higher commissions from fewer robotaxis.
Great episode, I love to watch you two talk for hours and I can’t wait until the next comes out.
I would love to see his model and see the outrages numbers in it.
Warren redlich has some really high numbers for the car sales alone without FSD and other parts too. Would love to see you three talk about your models and see who is right in 2030 😅
Great discussion thank you so much Dave !
James is actually a sindar elf continually battling evil ICE manufacturers with only his courage and a bow and arrow.
Lol, I thought I recognized him from LOTR
I love these conversations please keep them going.
Thank you both. Very inspiring.
Incredible videos about FSD and the topic related! Please do more such wonderful videos.
In the video there is a significant part discussing the potential variables, I would like to question the assumption of the future FSD with 2 points:
1. Humans are not always making rational decisions. FSD is not understandable for many many people, which can lead to fear. In a relatively small EV market about 20% pick rate of FSD in America, those people might be the ones who are the most adventurous and willing to try something new (can also explain the low FSD picking rate in China). Is cost alone a big enough factor for the rest of the population to change their mind and behaviour fast enough before the competition comes? Also, once FSD becomes more popular. There will be “accidents”. There are more than enough parties would like to make a big deal about anything related to Tesla. With the control of social media, making public opinion against Tesla FSD doesn’t seem impossible.
2. With a potential industry of this size, it is reasonable to assume it will become political. If some countries ask Tesla to share their tech for joining their market. What can Tesla do? Also, cyber security of the FSD system is also should be considered if the money involved will be this huge. How likely some countries will get/steal the tech and use their resources to create their own FSD and cars?
Also, the discussion around FSD is focused around transportation of human. What about truck business? We know that truck business is still growing annually and the market cap is huge also. FSD won’t get tired and can work 24hrs. We can foresee Tesla will become the evil cooperation that destroy the livelihood of truck drivers and what is the impact politically? How about the potential future usages of solving the vision problem like military, robots or etc?
I believe soon people will notice how different Tesla from OEMs. The questions above have some many variables that I don’t know how to measure the possibility.
Amazing interview!!! Thank you Dave, Thank you James
My question is how the need to go anywhere will change over the next 10-20 years. I had a 25 mile round trip commute to work prior to Covid. That has been reduced to zero for myself and 95% of my fellow employees. Overall will there be an increase or decrease in the need to travel in the future and how does that factor into the need for FSD. Beyond that is the cost. Tesla is charging $10K for the package. That limits this feature to an elite group of individuals that can justify the cost at this point. While that cost is destined to come down there will need to be a very serious reduction to make this feature desirable for the majority of drivers to make the switch.
Give us more of these videos with James!! 😍
Love listening to super smart people brainstorm.
Dave thanks for everything you do
James
Is awesome
Another great episode with JD! Fascinating to think about what autonomy looks like in 10 or 20 years.
Fantastic series of videos. Thank you both.
Great conversation. One critique I have on the prediction that $1 per mile will equal a $1million value of the car..working in the transportation industry for 10 years I’ve almost always had drive time in between rides where I’m not making any money. I believe Cathy wood has also recently brought this up
Big thanks to both of you!
Hi Dave. Another great discussion thanks. One way to think about what Tesla will charge for FSD is to look at how much Space X charge to launch satellites. This is a similar circumstance because in this case Space X have an advantage with their reusable rockets that is unique and very hard to replicate quickly in the industry. Note that they are not giving as big a discount as they could, more they are maximising profit. Look up consumer surplus. My opinion is that Tesla will maximise profit while they can, most likely taking as slice of robotaxi ride fees and the charge will be slightly under the cost of traditional taxis, not significantly under. This would make the most sense strategically for Tesla as it will allow them to pursue other goals that they may have in their sights that will need significant capital such as doing something in the shipping industry. This is an area that need addressing as a matter of urgency if we are aiming to reduce CO2.
These interviews have been FIRE recently!!!
I could literally listen to Dave talk to James about Tesla for 100 hours - not all at once lol but inside of a couple of weeks, easy. I've been relistening to these episodes because there's so much to take in. I'm not even an TSLA investor yet!
y'all are literally, the best! Soooooooo much ""potential" value! And also great interpersonal value. Together, %100
this is a super high quality conversation
It IS a joy! Well done and thank you both! 👍
Thank you James and Dave!! Loved learning about your thought process. Gets me excited about the future of Tesla :)
I love how excited you get. The most expensive part of a car is the time of the driver. People don't believe it will happen. I know it will happen but I still can't get my head around it.
The taxi sector is 1 of 2 HUGE changes coming with autonomous vehicles. The other is autonomous DELIVERY/Transport. Purpose-built driverless drones for delivery of food, supplies, you-name-it is going to EXPLODE. Courtesy of the pandemic, places like Wal-Mart have went into overdrive with on-line shopping, delivery by autonomous vehicle is the no-brainer extension/change to driving over to the store to have them load it into your car.
Great stuff.
Also you're forgetting about the freight and shipping market. FedEx/dhl will pay $200k-$300k on a autonomous delivery van.
Also, ppl won't own private car if it's cheaper to ride hailing. Only fleet operators will own them as a business.
No need for parking spaces = more real estate to build on.
Tesla can also make the ride free and earn of google/ Facebook ads.
Or a monthly subscription for rides for $100-200 a month.
Good discussion.
My question is who would be the early adopter?
My proposed guess is college students and airport travellers (early adopters for email and FaceBook).
Airport travellers to New York might appreciate robo-taxi navigation to avoid $100 cab rides.
Also the competition might be local buses with frequent stops, infrequent service and no weather protection at bus stops.
In San Francisco the airport limo to the east bay suburbs is pricey.
Weather might also allow competition against bicycles on rain and snow rain days.
What about autonomous trucking? This market isn't even discussed when talking about FSD but it's huge. Think about all the semi's driving autonomously around the world delivering goods.
James nailed an important point on perceived safety versus *actual* safety. I worked in the Navy's medical department for a decade, and am still surprised when I see people choose SUVs (even trucks) for "safety". The most lethal accidents come from rollovers, which high center of gravity vehicles like trucks and SUVs suffer from. The human body is not designed to be tossed around like a rag doll, end-over-end. Frontal collisions are a walk in the park compared to that.
A similar issue happened with motorcycles. Every last one of our marines and sailors who rode insisted they were extremely cautious, and were also required by the military to take rider safety courses. Yet, we still had tons of paralyzed and killed servicemembers due to accidents. People incorrectly think that because THEY are safe, that they can prevent other people from being unsafe. One of my staff sergeants was an avid rider all her life, but was T-boned at an intersection from someone running a light. She's quadraplegic now, even though she was a safe rider.
Sooooooo much gratitude for these talks, priceless!
It's simple. If you use your car for personal use, you tesla can offer fsd for a personal use price, limited to one per person. If you are buying for commercial use, then you pay the commercial price for the fsd portion, including a premium for better longer warranty. Either way, it's a win win situation for Tesla and it's customers.
So much great information. Thanks to both of you
Something to think about when factoring in robotaxi revenue. The car may have 1,000,000 mile battery, but would probably only have someone in it 50% of the time (has to drive to pick someone up). So a car going 100,000 miles a year may only collect revenue for 50,000 miles of it.
Also the cost of battery charging, maintenance, repairs and insurance
@@johnwasilenko170 I guess it’s a question of who owns the vehicle. If it’s fleet operators they will pay those cost. If it’s Tesla itself, they will have to cover those costs.
Right? Right? Right? Jeeze I can't stop noticing it. Great talk though... right.
When they solve FSD we will see different vehicles from Tesla. 1 passenger, 2 passengers vehicles, much smaller and targeted for different needs. These vehicles can be modular to change cabin type/cargo etc, so it can go further with same capacity of battery and will be cheaper to build/maintain/operate. Those cars will not be owned by private users anyway.
Dave, enjoying the discussion with James very much! I was watching your discussion related to the cost and profit analysis of a possible subscription model of Tesla’s Robo taxi business scenario and wanted to chime in on something that wasn’t addressed in the discussion.
Based on industry average, most mainstream auto rental companies rarely keep cars that are more than 2 years old. Once cars gets to that point, they are generally moved to their sales lots or auctioned off.
If Tesla would operate their own fleet of cars, I imagine similar scenario would happen (also once the cars depreciates to a certain level, the less customer it will capture…or it will be removed from the rental/subscription market altogether and be off to a possible sales lot or be auctioned off). Wondering how that would affect the overall operations and projections when it comes to analyzing the subscription model.
Also, in terms of comparison, I think the iPhone vs Tesla is an interesting one... iPhone being more than just a phone is analogues to Tesla being more than just a car.... I can see how Tesla can mimic their services model and increase their revenue through all the services it can provide (TBD) similar to how Apple is able to generate revenue through its services division....The car (not unlike iPhone) can serve as giant platform for all kinds of services including entertainment, all the apps to enhance the "in-car" experience, etc. Just curious how you or Jame would valuate or project the possible services portion of Tesla's revenue.
This is a great discussion, especially @30 mark when talking about the ability to compete "at that cost". Tesla is going to change the world if they get robotaxi right.
best intro music compared to any other channel so far. Oh also the content too
I love you guys and can't wait for each new "Interview" but I think looking at Robotaxis in a much too narrow view. Why should I own a car when I can call a Robotaxi anytime day or night no matter if I'm home or at the beach. Also, I'm now retired, what happens if I get to the point where I don't feel safe driving or even just driving at night. What am I willing to pay Robotaxi per mile if I don't own a car including insurance, excise or wheel tax, fuel etc.
When you drive a car, what mostly affect your safety, is how you drive, not the safety features of the car. In an airplane, or a robo-taxi, you give all your trust to someone, or something else. Statistics over car accidents include drunk drivers, bad drivers, drivers who fall asleep etc, so it will take a lot of trust to give over control to a robotic system, and statistics showing that it is very much safer than the average driver.
Thank you guys so much for this insightful information! I have one question regarding HD mapping. How do the companies deal with changing circumstances like roadworks when they scale? The roads alway change and who can keep track of those constant changes in a cost effective way?