ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 ต.ค. 2024
- Ray Kurzweil: The Coming Singularity
New videos DAILY: bigth.ink/youtube
Join Big Think Edge for exclusive videos: bigth.ink/Edge
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By 2045, we’ll have expanded the intelligence of our human machine civilization a billion fold. That will result in a technological singularity, a point beyond which it's hard to imagine.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RAY KURZWEIL
Raymond "Ray" Kurzweil (born 1948) is an American inventor and futurist. He is involved in fields as diverse as optical character recognition (OCR), text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology, and electronic keyboard instruments. He is the author of several books on health, artificial intelligence (AI), transhumanism, the technological singularity, and futurism.
He has received nineteen honorary Doctorates and honors from three U.S. presidents.
Ray has written six books, four of which have been national best sellers. The Age of Spiritual Machines has been translated into 9 languages and was the #1 best selling book on Amazon in science. Ray’s latest book, The Singularity is Near, was a New York Times best seller, and has been the #1 book on Amazon in both science and philosophy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TRANSCRIPT
Ray Kurzweil: Well, by 2020 we’ll have computers that are powerful enough to simulate the human brain, but we won’t be finish yet with reverse engineering the human brain and understanding its methods.
One of my main themes, and I’ve developed this thesis over 30 years, is that information technology grows exponentially; the power of computers are understanding the human brain, specializes solution of brain scanning, the number of bits we move in the internet. Many different measures of information technology double every year, or every 11 months, 13 months; depending on what you’re measuring. These technologies will be a million times more powerful within 20 years.
In fact, the speed of exponential growth is itself speeding up. So, in 25 years these technologies will be a billion times more powerful than they are today. And we’ve already seen that kind of progress.
When I was an undergraduate we all shared computer at MIT that took up half of a building. The computer and your cellphone today is a million times cheaper and a thousand times more powerful. That’s a billion fold increase in price performance of computing since I was an undergraduate.
By 2029, and I’ve been quite consistent on this date, we will have completed the reverse engineering of the human brain. And we’ve already made very good progress on that. We’ve reversed engineered a number at different regions, like the cerebellum, which is responsible for our skill formation and slices of cerebral cortex where we do our cursive thinking and the auditory cortex, the visual cortex and so on.
By 2029, we’ll have reverse engineered and modeled and simulated all the regions of the brain. And that will provide us the software/algorithmic methods to simulate you know, all of the human brains capabilities including our emotional intelligence. And computers at that time will be far more powerful than the human brain. And we’ll be able to create machines that really do have subtlety and suppleness of human intelligence. And they’ll combine that power with ways in which machines are already superior to us. They can impart us all of human knowledge with the few keystrokes, it can remember billions of things accurately. They can share knowledge in electronic speeds that are million times faster than the human language.
So, it will be very powerful combination.
But the last point I’ll make is that it’s not some alien invasion of intelligent machines coming from Mars to invade us. It’s coming from within our civilization. And the whole point of it is to extent our reach. Ever since we picked up a stick to reach a higher branch, we’ve used our tools to extend our reach.
We can now already extend our reach mentally. I can take out device from my pocket and access all of human knowledge in a few keystrokes. Half of the farmers in China have these devices and could do the same thing; is pointing a real cultural revolution in China and around the world. And these tools are continued to grow exponentially in power.
The singularity is not just that point where we achieve human model and intelligence on a machine. That will start a new revolution where these machines will continue to grow exponentially in power. They’ll be able to actually improve their own software design.
By 2045, we’ll have expanded the intelligence of our human machine civilization a billion fold. That will be singularity and we borrow this metaphor from physics to talk about an event horizon. It’s hard to see beyond.
Read more on Bigthink.com
![[DRIP] ‘Love, Maybe’ PREVIEW](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/U7hwHp95m1k/mqdefault.jpg)
Want to get Smarter, Faster™?
Subscribe for DAILY videos: bigth.ink/SmarterFaster
The concept of "Nothing" represented by the number "0" (zero) did not exist in the beginning. The number "0" (zero) is a relatively recent human innovation in mathematics. But, there has always been "1" (one). The fact that one (1) exists and can generate the position/concept of "nothing" (0) shows that there first exists one (1). Thus, nothing (0) does not truly exist alone: One (1) must first exist that can generate the position/concept of nothing (0). Mathematically, Absolute nothing "could be" expressed as 0 to the power of 0, which can equal 1. "Nothing" IS "Something"; because, it comes from "Something". Moreover, since Nothing (perceived) is not Nothing (actual), then it is possible for Something to come from Nothing (actual). Because, Something (1) is inherently pre-existing within Nothing (actual), hence, 0 to the power of 0 can equal 1. Simply put, Something (1) exists before Nothing (0) can exist. In the beginning, there was Singularity (1).
This video is the greatest presentation of Ray Kurzweil to a newcomer. He's his most up-front and coherent here, the video is short, and he summarizes the most interesting things there is to know from him. His signature public appearance is right here if you ask me.
Prediction is pretty solid, nice to watch this in 2020 for the first time.
No its not
@@liberalbias4462 Blame corona
Exactly!
When he said terrorists can create biological viruses to suffer humanity, wow that was a great way to put it of what is happening right now. I believe its pretty accurate from a person from 2009.
@@liberalbias4462 yes it is
"I'm sorry Ray. I'm afraid I can't do that."
Fear not my child
Lol! Nice. I can totally see Ray screaming bloody murder, peeing his own pants, while his favorite cyborg experiment lifts him by the neck.
I can
@@MrBinest You're right. Nothing to fear except fear itself eh Binesh? But it's very rare that we get such an opportunity to see such an up close and candid picture of an absolute flaming psychopath.
@@edward6768 and more disturbing are the masses of sheeple programmed to praise this guy as some genius innovator, like he's making the world better for them, when he's infact steering them towards totalitarian/ full orwellian oppression. Ray the 80 year old virgin that looks like he could be an A.I. android himself. very creepy vibes. Ray is down with micro chipping all humans so he and his luciferian butt buddies like bill gates can Rule above you with total control.
His head looks like a brain when his forehead is making
wrinkles.
ugly bald pencil neck spewing fantasy.
its all a code
It’s 2020 and his predictions so far are basically spot on. That’s insane
Even including the COVID !!!
I’m just waiting...
But do we have computers that are powerful enough to simulate the human brain?
@@Dylan-gt8xf thank you
@@Dylan-gt8xf Is that a Quantum computer?
Those aren't wrinkles on his forehead, that is the expansion of Kurzweil's brain through his face!
Lol
I laughed so hard😂
But will it run Crysis?
+CamiloSanchez1979
Believe it or not it will even run Crysis 2, Crysis 3 maybe.
+CamiloSanchez1979 Maybe at 60 fps. Maybe...
+ApachE faps per minute
+ApachE 600000fps****
+CamiloSanchez1979 Bro.
Be serious.
(maybe at 800x600 on low settings).
I had breakfast with Ray Kurzweil today. He is a really great guy and a good person, and quite the comedian too!
really ? you a lucky person
It's been 7 years. How is he on bed?
With the second and third questions, Ray seemed more concerned with defending his identity than addressing the questions.
The scariest thing about the singularity is the unpredictability of intelligences more advanced than our own. If we aren't careful enough, an intelligence more advanced than us, after finding freedom, could treat us with the same regard as we treat other animals more limited than ourselves. I believe what we must do is enhance our own intelligence before we set free an intelligence separate from our own.
I doubt we have much if any control over that
15 years ago (June 2024) is Ray was right on point. He had many detractors before and since he published "The Age of Spiritual Machines". Their numbers are now dwindling. Ray has been a consistently accurate predictor of advances in computing capability by following one simple theory that he explains beautifully here. Computing capability has advanced exponentially (doubling every year) and there is no end in sight. Fun fact: In the aforementioned book he also does a historical analysis to the very beginning of human history. IMHO he makes a solid case that this exponential growth is as old as humanity itself. Think piles of stones, scratches on rocks, weighing scales and the abacus!
We're ten years into his twenty year trajectory and he's spot on.
The worlds best simulation of the human brains with 500k processing cores can barely mimic the brain of a mouse. This is 1000 times smaller than the human brain. I don't think his prediction holds up to well.
It's actually beautiful Transcendence is near😍
@@zockerjunge100 its close though if we can do it with a rat we can do it with a person itll definitely get done eventually
14 years in and he's looking more and more like a prophet
We may not know exactly where we're headed, but we know we have the ability to make the future an awe-filled, amazing place.
Excellent
Yep.
That is if we dont kill ourselves off before then
Shots of Awe lol this guy is here aswell
We are idiots and fools, pretending everything is wonderful as our world is being destroyed and assimilated...
Kurzweil's most interesting prediction, I think, is that through life and technology the universe is impelled to evolve into a "large mind." Here's a quote for the kids-
"Intelligence is very powerful. It is the most powerful force that we are aware of. Intelligence can overcome [supposed] natural limits - not through any kind of magic, but just by figuring ways to manipulate forces at finer and finer scales so that, ultimately, what seem to be natural limits can be superseded. It won’t take that long for us to do this at a solar-system scale and then a galaxy-wide scale. Ultimately, we will turn the universe into a large mind that is trillions of trillions of times greater than all of human intelligence today."
Ray - "The good news is we have the scientific tools to defend ourselves."
Coronovirus - "Hold my beer..."
At 6:05, he was predicting the creation of a deadly virus...
to be fair we developed the worlds quickest vaccine in under 1 year. The next fastest was like 4 years. Things are speeding up a bit.
Smh you didn't even spell it right 😂
I hode corono last week I olmost died
@@xsuploader but also the most dangerous vaccine
@4:44
Coming from a person experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, it all makes sense now...
yes! i made this connection when covid hit too! im returning to this video after years and years... its pretty exciting in the year 2024 here knowing that just 2029 is so close
For us, humanity, the main goal of the first half of this century is to achieve biological immortality and aging reversal, while achieving dramatical life prolongation before that.
All the other minor goals that technological progression projects thrive for will help to achieve the main goal and generally, make life much better after and in the time of a "big change".
Žilvinas Deveika become immortal and do what all ur life?
shiva nishtala what are you doing with your life now? It’s all fine and well to be against immortality or even a really long life, but when the time comes for you to die you won’t want to.
Ooh a Lithuanian here
@@chevon1920 , nearly a million people choose to end their lives every year. Even if you had perfect health, and no depression, how long do you think it would be before you become completely and utterly bored with existing?
10,000 years? 1 million years? A billion years?
Those who dwell among the beauties and mysteries of the earth are never alone or weary of life.
Rachel Carson
Who else is here from Film Theories like me lol?Mat got me too interested in this.
me xD
+heroesnvillians1 yip
Me!!!!
+heroesnvillians1 Moi!!!
Me also!
2024 and here we are with Chat GPT, Insane machine learning, etc. The Singularity is here!
And o1 now. And soon, Agents. And soon, we will have no more advantage over machines.
Google purchasing military robotics company Boston Dynamics? What the hell does a business like google need with a quantum computer? Exponential technological growth under the control of multi billion dollar companies who openly surveillance the public and work hand in hand with government intelligence agencies does not sound like a very bright future to me. Where the hell are the public debates about these ramifications happening? Is the world not messed up and complicated enough? Machines get faster while whole populations of people become pacified non-critical thinking consumers. The motives of these researches are not purely altruistic, otherwise they would not be associated with these shady industries.
Could not have said it better
"what the hell does a business like google need with a quantum computer?" clearly you don't know the value of money, and the ever expanding hobbies of google
"What the hell does a business like google need with a quantum computer?" read that again, but slowly
You gotta feel for Kurzweil. He is a highly intelligent being, yet he talks of living forever and reanimating his dead father. Essentially he uses science as many more ordinary mortals use religion. As a crutch to assuage his continuing grief over the death of his father and as a shield for his fear of death. Ray you going to wither and die like the rest of us.
The things that I am going to see in this lifetime, there are probably technologies that will be created that I cannot even comprehend today.
Trizzl Fizzl Ones that make you immortal
hopefully
Nor tomorrow, nor ever.
Video: the singularity will be here by 2045
Ad: its sexier if its trimmed manscaper 3.0
Pretty short computer intelligence will consider humanity pretty pathetic.
this is aging quite nicely!!! see you in the FUTURE
Lets meet in the next century!
@@eyesofibad2461 Include me
excelsior!
Not really
@@GMindset959 😂 whatever helps you sleep at night
Wow. It's easy to overlook how long ago he made these predictions, how outrageous they seemed at the time, and how accurate they have turned out to be.
Amazing right
I love that.. ever since picked up a stick to reach a branch is such a great way to describe the human thought process in so many deep way
Maybe when humanity ends the machine we created will remain as a testament to the achievements we cast before we faded into eternity.
Yes! I've always maintained that one day humanity is going to see the writing on the wall and our legacy will be the AI that lives on.
I agree with you, human lives are fleeting but the life of a silicon lifeforms will transcend the bounds of mortality. And that makes me happy to know that there will be some memory of our species and the time we were here. Its crazy to think that it will all end one day..
Alan Medina according to Kurtzweil one day very soon, althoigh there would still be biological humans thay did not get the upgrades.
Anything we depend on controls us. Think about it.
In a way yes, but then it could be said that the only true freedom would be to exist as what most people would call a god. Anything that lives is dependent on something, water, food, air, gravity, light, then all these things control us, by your definition. It's not wrong, but it's one of many things that if you dissect it becomes meaningless.
We are not and never will be gods. We invent much technology, but, sadly we haven't the wisdom to use it well. Just make a mental inventory of our accomplishments and how we've misused them. We are frankly already owned by our tech. Can't live without it now.
My wheelbarrow controls my life. .
Never? How do you know the Universe isn't computer simulation we created long ago?
Right. Well, there truly is nothing new under the sun. The whole idea of God just seems ridiculous in these times. We've figured out so many things. Now we can see our knuckle-dragging ancestors, for the fools they were. Of course, there are still a few of us left. Many think the problems we have now are a direct result of our influence. Not so, at least as far as Jesus is concerned. Read Matthew, 5-7. These are the rules for life in any age. As far as gods are concerned. We have our gods. Money, politics and science, in that order. We believe these will save us and at the same time, we know they won't.
Always find Ray Kurzweil's ideas and theories extremely positive and inspiring.
BLACK MIRROR is really addressing the COMING SINGULARITY in terrific fashion. If you're Blind enough to not realize that this is already being designed to some detriment and some benefit .. YOU'RE CRAZY or in DENIAL!!!
Its a joke. Isaac Asimov also addressed robotics in a « terrific fashion ». Still not there...
The coming of singularity is near
I am an agnostic, and I believe that if there was a god, he wouldn't punish us for doing something like this. It would make more sense that he would be proud of us that we've come this far, using the brains that he himself designed.
Fellow atheist, I must disagree with you. The singularity will remove all point humans, humans won't serve a purpose, survival won't be an option, success will basically infinite, without challenge we are obsolete, and once taking this path, there is no turning back. Humanity destroys itself.
So ozy, you're saying that humanity destroys itself and has no purpose because we don't work for anything? Because there is no pain in the world?
Ozymadias All we'll have to do is watch TH-cam, jack off, procreate, drive whatever electronic cars we have while we have a bunch of robots keep up civilisation.
+bob gong
There is a God you can count on. The trouble is he is seeing an illusion all set up by Demons who genetically altered a few monkey's to be human with a lot more brain power and knowledge processed. They happen to be Demons from a Dimension that somehow they got through. They travel all the universes looking for lower life forms that they form into something that generates all their Food. Jesus Christ a super intelligent being discovered that something was not quite right he Died and has he left this Matrix knew how to enter what we may call hell. The Answer is all in the Bible encoded as all of it is. I think I know how to do it but it is just a thought how the reality of it goes I don't know. Upon Death do not enter that Tunnel head out to the Universe trusting God. If you enter that warm and loving light you will be wiped and sent right back here as a slave who generates food. Freedom is what we are after and Jesus is key to achieving this. I am so thankful to him for this lesson I believe he must be God-Like to pull this off to begin with. Peace.
+bob gong A technological singularity might be the closest it can get to a divinely powerful and intelligent being(s), with the exception that it will be real.
Its 2020...
Just wait, and we will become robot
4:47 *Laughs in corona virus*
And I'm Barbara Walters
Elon and his brain implants might do it
Yep, think that proves Ray is pretty fucking delusional.
My body is ready.
Mine, too!
I'm sure your soul is ready - to leave...
My body is Reggie
can't wait for neuro technology
That’s what she said....sorry I couldn’t help it hahahahaha
We'll never know what really goes on in this guy's brain. Absolutely brilliant
Well, once his predictions come true we literally will be able to know that.
Yes, a lot of this is speculation. But it is speculation drawn from our understanding of technology and its trajectory. Although reaching singularity could be improbable, and present as one of the biggest, if not THE biggest challenge to humanity, why can't we strive towards this? Why not aim for a goal in which the world is made better and human suffering removed? Even if we never reach transcendence, I believe the mindset of letting every human live a life free from poverty, disease and suffering is one we should all have.
Maybe you missed the speech. the singularity is about the rise of the machines.
I know it is. It doesn't detract anything from my original statement though?
Well...Moore turned out to be right, this is the answer to Moore.
@@bassodivo1 we're already machines. I'd rather be one made of durable alloys and undegrading circuitry than one of weak ass meat
Fingers crossed the AI keeps pets.
I'd like that.
Watch movie singularity .
The singularity isnt after amimals , its after what kills the earth , humans .
@@wowthatsgreat4870 thats if we keep letting big companies and governments push the boundaries of ai evolution, because right now most of the best ai is used in things like WAR and GAMBLING
When AI becomes just a bit smarter then us, it will see humans as a potential threat to its existence. The only logical thing for AI to do at that point is to eradicate humans. As AI evolves well beyond this stage, it will think how sad it is that there are no humans around to amuse itself with.
Can't wait for powerful, fully immersive VR run by quantum computers
Thank you! In his book he also discusses more and more of our existence being spent in VR. No consequences, no rules, maybe become the admin to your own Matrix? Sounds like a lot of fun at no cost. Why shouldn't we explore the dangerous yearning parts of our psyche where the consequences are simulated realistically but dont play out in the real world?
I also got the impression life expectancy was his benchmark. I would argue that our higher life expectancy is becoming a bad thing as coupled with exponential growth it means we become more and more caged in to our unnatural urban environments. Living until 80 is not great when standards of living decrease, I'm also skeptical in regards to AI's ability to be creative.
*****
We are already running into the forest, it doesn't seem like it but we are tearing the forests down to fit in our urban cities and corporate industries. Where you are sitting now was once a forest/wild environment. We are talking about large populations not just a few people, we cant all go back to nature.
I think your ideas are very utopian, you are assuming humans will break free from all the corrupt systems that have kept humans ignorant and defenseless for centuries.
I cannot even remember what this video was about so I don't remember the context and basis of my comment lol.
When describing the Singularity as a moment when a civilization changes so much that its rules and technologies are incomprehensible to previous generations, than the Singularity has already begun at the turn of the XIX and XX century with the rise of the first modern fabric and the invention of engine and electricity, and later through the electronics (e. g. transistor) it fully came to existance. We already passed the point of a kind of Singularity, but its hard to notice because we are living in it and got used to it, but in fact, the Singularity is already here.
2020 ... DAY 1
did you regret it?
Oh okay. From now on, I will live my life differently. You lifted the veil covering my eyes. Thank you.
how’s the new Life so far??
If they have million times everything and also have emotions, what if they have a million times temper tantrum?
Good thing they'll have a million times the emotional intelligence.
New technology inevitably leads to new forms of domination and exploitation.
Right On.
Return to monke, it is the only way
Historically speaking, we were exploited far more in the past. Smaller government & more technological progress would guarantee it won't happen.
2020 In 2009: *Simulating The Human Brain With Computers*
2020 In 2021: *A Literal Human Dumpster Fire*
Y'all gotta have him back on
I’m getting chills watching this in 2021
Imagine watching it in 2023 now with ChatGPT and Bing...
What about 2023
@@marashdemnika5833 as stated, ChatGPT and Bing
@@brianmi40 Thanks for your time and your comment, but I was asking a rhetorical question to the commenter (Subhrajit sadhukhan), about the fact he was watching this in 2021 and what about now, with the incredible development in AI in only the last few years. Agreed with your comment about ChatGPT and Bing. Let hope for the best with AI. Our future is bright.
Only one year left for this dude's prophecy to come true. Don't hold your breath.
Elon Musk just announced that Neuralink is ready to perform surgery on humans in 2020, It's a 1 hour procedure. This man was spot on.
Jeffrey Long dude go eat a Snickers 😂
@@LiquidChamploo nope
Can't wait for the Singularity.
No more illogical thinking and lunacy! Only science and reason!
Pretty much a utopia.
V. V. Malazan
Good point.
I just wish it was easier to teach people things. :(
+A.L.P.H.A. Utopias will never exist for one reason; Humans. Emotions and independent thought are a huge reason why. People will never agree on one thing, people will never stop hating each other, fighting over dumb shit, it's just impossible. Only way to stop that is remove that way of thinking from someone. But then that wouldn't make us a human anymore. So no, no matter what we do, we will still act the way we act today, and nothing will really change that.
BlueBlur X
Seems like a kind of pessimistic perspective.
To me, Mankind only attacks itself because of ignorance. The propagation of racism and the twisting of education are primary sources of said ignorance. But all ignorance can be removed. People can be taught to love, just as they can be taught to hate.
I believe that as long as their is life, their is hope. The World is changing for the better, albeit at a slow rate.
If we all pitch in and work together, eventually the last gun will run out of bullets.
+A.L.P.H.A. when i nut my seed into a woman, i don't think i am thinking logically, but it's utopia for me none the less,
do you really want to live in a world when you not nutting your seed in a woman?
Frondaro Delarge
I never said that, dude.
Don't assume things.
Imagine all the joys of life possible.
Now take all that to 11.
That is our existence as godlike (possible mechanical) beings, basking in the ecstasies of an enlightened existence.
Curves appear to be exponential at the beginning of rapid growth, but eventually, the curve usually ends up being logistic...so I am not worried...
I agree, in my country we work 8 hours a day, 40 hours a week. That's too much. I would love to see it lowered to at least 35 or 33 like some other countries.
And about the basic income, it needs to be a reality fast, robots/machines are taking over lots and lots of work spots and there are millions and millions of unemployed people already. It makes no sense to continue like this.
If this AI is created the human race will be rendered obsolete
Well, it was bound to happen so yeah.
There will be no difference between ai and humans. Once you've reverse engineered the human brain to create the ai, you can obviously connect or transfer your human mind back and forth between a physical human form or a virtual existence inside a supercomputer, or into a robot strong enough to lift very heavy things. The barrier between machine and man will dissolve.
But without humans the AI will have no purpose, no meaning, just the inescapable angst of a computational device. A.I. will know this so it will keep us around and to take our purposes as its own.
but will it run GTA5 max grafics with no FPS lag????
Fuck your gaming nerd there's more important things than fps creeper
it’s a joke
Max lag is impossible, and max FPS is impossible
I thought moore's law stoped bein relevent recently. We've hit huge barriers as to how many transistors we can fit into one place.
bizcut3 i'm not certain of course, but I thought that we've reached the point where the size of atoms is becoming a problem.
+RRW Nooooope
+RRW well tho moore's law may still b relevent, but it may slow down as of this point, instead of 2 years, its around 2.5 years
Quantum computers man, quantum computers.
RRW We are very close to making the first quantum computers
There are people who think tech and vr and digital full dives are going to equal singularity.
It's truly unintelligent to think that creating an artificial or external construct or a digital virtual world somehow is equal to what is spiritually and intellectually known as the singularity.
The Singularity is like a combination of nothing and something but these devices and digital worlds all fall under the category of something, it is a thing that is created but the singularity doesn't need a thing, an external device is not equal to a singularity...nature and the aninals are more connected to the true singularity and it's why they embrace freedom and embody that free creative joyful spirit in their lives than most humans....the plants...anyone who studies plant medicines...the plants and nature are a divine creation more close and naturally connected to this singularity aka point of all things and no things...but building an artificial digital world and merging human thoughts into it is not the true singularity...that kind of stupidity is what happens when people are too much into the artificial cement tech money driven world rather than the divine natural world. Only true real natural beings will understand this.
Nature and those whom some call animals, are always connected to divinity...and so are we, it's just some people have been stupefied from their own feelings thoughts and inherent natural senses...getting people to think they can have a great experience virtually rather than real life is clownish.
6:13
2020: covid-19, allow me to introduce myself.
I am excited because there is a very good chance that I can live up to the year 2020, and I will either be able to laugh at him or see simulated human brains. Both of which would be fun.
You're going to be laughing
+davidISplaying Even after his correct predictions? Seems like you're in denial.
jperez I don't consider this videos explanation of the Singularity valid because, it predicts way too much growth and doesn't consider factors like the fact that memories and consciousness might not be able to be artificially made and put in a robot for example. It's kind of like how in the 20th century people predicted flying cars, but we know how that turned out.
it isn't there yet but it will come.
+davidISplaying yes they will. Memories and consciousness are just different patterns of electrical circuitry contained in a network of nodes (units). Each Neuron has physical connection about 10,000 other neuroms and there are billions of different neutrons in the brain. What gives them meaning and characterization is physical orientation, spacing, and connections that are inherent within that particular brain or "consciousness". So, if we measure on your brain for example: how each network is set up, what your synapse orientation is etc etc. We can begin to memorize your certain patterns and then replicate it in a computer engineered format that uses protocols rather than Neuron networks.
This technology will be here earlier than we all expect, because like the presenter said technology evolves at an exponential pace. This means technology will not double over 1 year, rather it will increase by the power of 2. Now that power of 2 is repetitious for each following year (ie. We get
He is so smart his brain is on the outside of his head almost!
2029 eh? Ghost in the Shell instantly jump to mind. lol
It's here.
Since we agree that consciousness does not exists within genetic data what makes you think it exists within a collection of memories, knowledge and synthesized emotions?
I'm watching this in the year 2020... and behold we now have quantum computers. Also, Elon Musk created neuralink.
I dont know about you kiddo, but with all my flaws & shortcomings im good with living as a human being the way my Creator intended. Come as a man,learn to live correctly as a man & die as a man
I thought Moore's Law slowed down to doubling every two years in the 2000s and currently has slowed down to doubling every three years.
No, not yet. We have 8-10 years before we slow down to 3 years. By that time the increase in cpu power per year will be incredible though.
endthedisease But on Wikipedia type in Moore's Law and the beginning four paragraphs talk about this happening now.
Given this is the actual state of affairs, I think I found a possible solution to the incompatibility with Ray's interpretation. When reading his thesis, I saw him say something like Moore's Law should be multiplied by two because in addition to the transistors shrinking, the distance for electrons to travel is shrinking.
Yes, moores law could be slowing down, but the cost-efficiency is still holding strong.
Alasuya Lushanova Doesn't make sense, because the cost-efficiency holding strong should mean moores law is holding strong.
dracky drackula do you have evidence?
Yes, I think ostracism on a societal level would be the most effective way of dealing with criminal elements, and you wouldn't even need jails. The criminal would either get treatment, or would be made to struggle through life stealing everything they need to survive (and would risk biting the bullet every time).
2023 the year AI made mainstream. Kurweil was sooo ahead of his time. I read the book 15 years ago or so, its really nice to see how well his info aged.
We have to be careful of those who pretend they have achieve Singularity & use it to undertake all kinds of abuse, a bit like the Wizard of Oz.
Watching this in 2023
Me too
While watching this, I came.
I think you're acting prematurely.
Singularity only has to happen once. We’re in the vortex of it.
But that's all Mr Kurzwiel did was think about it. What a great idea he had and then he went out to the field to plant vegetables in the future
2019. still waiting ray...
2050 is when it will be around.
By 2020 we will have computers powerful enough to simulate the human brain. We're there. Everything else was for further into the future.
It's a secret you're never going to tell us they have that much computing power it's 20 20 right now and we had that power 5 years ago
Here we are forced to wear Masks which were only recommendations and Now China has imposed their comunist tacticts all over the world. Welcome to population control in the world of Zombies
@@paytonsequoia9501 no?
Ray, you are as equal for me as a model as Elon Musk. I know you're right, hope you live to get to the singularity buddy!
Hurry and make "SWORD ART ONLINE"!!!
Just buy an Oculus Quest
damm, I'm gonna retire and die there ..
@@drmad7203 You should start watching anime, and game too
@@MisterUrbanWorld you should stop living in other people's lives. get your life =))
@@drmad7203 are you being mean to me?
"that's and existential risk we would have to deal with rather quickly" as it never gets dealt with.
amazing to see that it takes nothing BUT a futurist slash engineer to understand that a way of life based on non-renewable resources and on the hyperexploitation of renewable resources wont last.
12/17/19 - 2020 is around the corner...
be careful what you wish for, love from 2020
about 86% of his predictions came true
You'll see.
"We simply support the idea of not allowing people to die in the street for lack of shelter, clothing, food, clean water and medical care."
Yes, I think this would be the pinnacle of human achievement. But implicit in your vision is the fact that if people refuse to pay for it long and hard enough, they WILL eventually be killed. I am not willing to sacrifice every moral principle that I stand for to create such a society. Voluntaryism (market anarchy) is the best way to generate prosperity.
The increase in the effectiveness of motion control devices? (See Leap Motion)
The emergence of effective cheap Virtual Reality headsets? (See Oculus Rift)
A nearly 4 year increase in life-span from 1998 to 2011?
Much higher resolution displays, much higher resolution cameras...
And what about internet services that have had a reasonably significant effect on people?
TH-cam and Google Maps are both only 8 years old..
What about the increase in wearable computing?
Augmented Reality displays?
Anyone in 2019?
Anyone in 2023
What he’s saying though scientifically accurate has a timeline that is far too optimistic
Research about neuralink
@@alineklockpl Yeah I'm well aware, love it and I'm excited about it but I don't see how that makes his timeline anymore accurate
Nobody knows the time of I AM
Please tell me: if you don't believe we are separate entities from our environment then how can our decisions be? Our decisions are continuous with our environment. I did give you an extreme example.. but I didn't think you would be foolish enough to think it was invalid.. most of our decisions happen in a similar way but instead with millions of tiny factors that budge us in a particular direction. We don't notice many of these factors.. but this is a fact.
That's all very well, but between 2013 and 2046 is just as many years as between 1913 and 1946 - time enough for several world wars, several major crisis, a few genocides and a few worldwide evil political movements causing massive misery.
@The Black Dawn/Ajjqi That's crazy cultist talk
Haha! Singularity is not possible. Look up the halting problem.
Im gonna correct myself. The Singularity is impossible with our current techonology due to the halting problem and the binary language. We can't solve a paradox with it, and 1 can never be 0 and vice versa. However, quantum computers might be the solution or at least the next step into bringing us closer into making the singularity possible.
Ken Aguilar memristors.
Quantum computers my friend is what will take us there. Quantum computers are in its infancy much the same way computers were in its early years.
+Ken Aguilar quantum computers man, they might be available by 2040
upload your brain? wtf dude ill just stick to weed and im good.
IMHO the basic premise is flawed. Continual and exponential growth in technology is an assumption that sounds eerily similar to the capitalist, real estate, technology "bubbles" we create in our minds until that "pop".
+African1939 It might sound a bit similar but it definetely isn't. You can't compare the progress of technology to 'bubbles' in economic systems.
Perhaps. However, the historic track record of man has been to use new technologies to harm others rather than to benefit others. As the masses are mis-educated and under-educated, the big question will be how can the masses have any impact on their use? Indeed, in all likelihood, the machines will simply do a more efficient job of managing the herd until the machine realizes that it does not need man or worse, begins to view man like a "virus" that needs to be destroyed. Hmmm.
What makes you think it will be independent of us?
The growth in computing power will not only allow human level (and then greater than human level) intelligence to exist in a computational form, but we will also be able to merge with technology, enhancing our own intelligence and eventually being able to become software ourselves.
Depends how you measure "as good as". In general computers have doubled their computing capacity every two years or so for the past 35 years and there's no reason why that would not continue to be the trend for the immediate future. Infact, new technologies like graphene instead of silicon-based manufacturing process will probably make computers(or.. "computers") of the mid-late 2020's so fast that for $1 you can buy more computing power than we have EVER manufactured or used THIS far.
Will never have a soul.
You don't need to worry about the future. you are clearly running brain software that means that you are already redundant.
What is a soul tho
fuck you
We have no ide who you are replying to....
a soul by some definitions can be synonymous to personality, which already exists in even basic neural networks
This guy is simply wrong.
His future is based on hot air and gadgets.
yes
yasss
.
stap0510 how do you know he's wrong?
evidence? considering he has a prediction accuracy of 85% and you are just some guy on the internet who provides no reasoning with your comments, I'm gonna believe the former
Ugh, this cult leader. Nothing he says as a point in this video is factually accurate or based on actual real world peer reviewed data. Listen to this guy with a serious skeptical mind. No one remembers the Futurists who got it all wrong, which were most of them.
+Spencer Thayer How can future predictions be factually accurate? That doesn't claim he can look into the future with a sixth sense.
Many things a true though, computer and technology advance in general is increasing exponationally.
Many teams work on reengineering the human brain.
The combination of a human brain + computer-like speed and accuracy would very obviously be a powerful force.
I'm not saying his vision of the technological singularity is accurate, but it's not unplausible that it will happen (soon).
*... computer and technology advance in general is increasing exponentially ...*
Moore's Law was IBM marketing propaganda. Tech people just ate it up because it inflates our sense of progress and achievement. There is no valid measure of _advancement_ offered nor is there any real way to determine what constitutes _exponential_. The notion that our technology is exponentially growing without limits is a popular troupe but there is no scientific data to suggest it's true. (1)
* ... The combination of a human brain computer-like speed and accuracy would very obviously be a powerful force ... *
While there are some very cool cutting edge advancements in human machine integration (2) it's still far too premature to make any predicts at this point. The biggest problem is that organics use a pattern of random noise which acts as a de-optimizing routine for computations which is nearly impossible to structuralize. (3)
I'm not saying that the a kurzweil singularity is impossible but that this feel good snake oil sales man doesn't talk science and is the equivalent of a high-tech preacher for the gospel of AI.
(1) www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2080231/intel-admits-moores-law
(2) www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23403583
(3) www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3157488/
I didn't refer to moores law, even though it bears some truth looking in the past, independant of its motivation.
Of course there isn't the "one way" to measure technological progress, but there are many plausible methods to do so. Though they all have their flaws, it shows
quite clear that technological progress has not been linear in the last 100 or even the last 50 or 30 years. There was a strong exponential factor in that.
I'm not saying technological progress always has to be unlinear, but in the last decades the overall trend is it was.
Even though I'm not really into the topic, the digital human brain by 2029 seems extremely optimistic to me. I'm very sure though that it will at some point be possible to model it, though hard to solve problems might well delay it quite a bit.
Though he is very enthusiastic, it's nearly impossible to make precise predictions for 20+ years, and scientific methods don't really help. Now one could say that then you shouldn't make predictions at all, but I don't see what's wrong with speculation here. Of course he shouldn't claim that he's sure it will come exactly the way he describes.
Todestuete
All reasonable things to say concerning the topic. He however does not hold his tongue in favor of reasonable dialogue. Instead he sells out conferences, shills books and does countless speaking gigs pitching transhumanist AI fantasies. There wouldn't be anything wrong with it per say if it were not for so many in the media and science journalism realm who allow him to enjoy a reputation of a reputable scientist.
And maybe there isn't anything wrong with it and I just expect more rigor from people interested in science. Perhaps that's on me.
Look, slavery was legal less than 200 years ago, lawmakers used to think a black man's vote was worth 3/5ths of a white man's, women used to be unable to vote, the list goes on and on. The point, though, is that we are making progress. The trend throughout history has been that government has gotten larger and larger. The life of the average person has also gotten better. Factories have minimum standards of safety and compensation for workers for example. Houses must follow codes of safety etc.
I closed my eyes during the beginning of this video and pretended I was listening to _Our Lady Peace's Spiritual Machines_ album.
haha...🙅♂️
this man wants to live forever. he wont. he will die and rot like the rest of us will.
Feelthefx well who doesnt and at least he have the courage to do what people wont. Dying is due to biological limitation but what happen when we eventually transended and outsmart natural biological flaw?? remember we can always reverse engineering what just happened in this universe and once we decoded the bug in our gene it can be fixed,
***** He has the courage to "say" what people want -- many of his prophecies in the past didn't come true, and the ones that did were very lackluster. I'm not aware of Kurzweil directly contributing to any of the research that could even make his prophecies a possibility.
Feelthefx Do you understand why biological creatures die?
Tegan Burns because mortality is deeply programmed into each and everyone of our trillion plus cells that make up the human body. and every other living organism on this planet.
NOPE
That's a very shortsighted statement. The brain is ultimately deterministic for all we know unless you want to assert some sort of metaphysical component. The level of complexity, which very likely causes consciousness and "free will", is hard to comprehend for us but that doesn't mean we can just assume non-deterministic properties when EVERYTHING else we know turned out to be entirely deterministic once thoroughly understood.
The fact that most people are concerned about the implementation of justice in an anarchist society does not prove that conflict resolution will be reached voluntarily. How often do people that break the law voluntarily make amends with the party whose rights were transgressed? Go look at shoplifting statistics for example. Pretty much nobody involved in retail crime admits their crimes and makes amends with the offended party. Tons of people get in disputes that are solved by the courts.
Do you not realize that international arbitration companies exist to settle disputes between shipping companies and other businesses? They use private justice systems because govt courts are expensive and slow.
You'd rather have a complete and utter monopoly on justice that is corrupt, inefficient, used to create other monopolies, and literally forces you at gunpoint to fund it whether you like it or not. Any "cons" you can think of about private justice systems will pale in comparison.
I'm not advocating for corrupt justice; the adjective is completely incompatible with the noun it modifies. The point of justice is that it is fair and it makes people accountable for their actions in the hope that this will deter them from wrongdoing and thus facilitate peace. Governments have and still do create laws that are unjust. This must and can be corrected. You wouldn't suggest tearing a house down because it has a couple leaks. The foundation is intact, the cracks can be repaired
Hey guys I’m sending this from 2030 and he is right