Forecasting Principles & Practice: 3.4 classical decomposition

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ความคิดเห็น • 2

  • @mohdali231992
    @mohdali231992 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    In additional decomposition why should the seasonal indices add up to 0?
    And in multiplicative it should add up to m.?
    In additional the seasonal indices are positive and negative
    Yt= Tt + St + Rt
    If sum of St doesn't add up to 0, then St would have a net positive or negative effect in residual.
    In multiplicative decomposition
    Yt = Tt*St*Rt
    Rt = Yt/(Tt*St)
    Rt = (Yt/Tt)/m
    This would divide the residuals amongst the season periods according to indices.
    Is this explanation correct??

    • @RobJHyndman
      @RobJHyndman 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      If we don't impose a constraint on St, there is an identifiability issue between St and Tt. It also ceases to be interpretable as a seasonal additive effect. Instead, it becomes some combination of seasonality and the level of the series, because there will be leakage from Tt to St without the constraint.