Unfortunately, I think you’ll be disappointed. The hype makes little sense to me personally after seeing it at the Chicago International Film Festival: a great cinematic achievement sure, but it lacks emotion, depth, proper thematic development, and builds to nothing. Not an amazing movie.
Even if Wicked becomes top contender, Jon Chu is not getting in because the directors branch is very exclusive and Denis V missed for doing part one of two/three movies, so same will happen to Chu (‘Get in line, kid’).
i desagree, Wicked Part one is a huge sucess, and because of the fans They will give him nomination plus he did an amazing Job, and same for Denis for Dune.
Because it's a sequel to a movie that dominated only in technical categories many years ago when the competition was very weak. Now we are post Covid. Competition is far far far stronger
It's a part 2 in a trilogy. Look at fellowship of the ring and two towers compared to how return of the king was embraced by the academy. Likely people will be hesitant until we see the whole story.
@TheRealJKJones It's better. But like the 1st Movie. Dune is beautiful to look at. But it lacks heart and the human element. Compare it to The Substance. Where you go on an emotional rollercoaster with the main character. Or the complexity of the characters in Anora. It's clear that Dune lacks the very key element of what a movie should have.
Nobody on the entire planet could have pulled off Dune part 2 the way Denis did. People will be talking about Dune part 2 far longer than any of these other movies. If it came out right now it would be the favorite for both Best Picture and Best Director wins. In ten years are we really going to be going back to Anora and be like yeah that deserves a spot in history over the masterpiece in every category that was Dune Part 2?
It's so obviously getting nominated for best director and best picture. These guys think way too highly of these festival movies that nobody is going to watch.
I'm sorry but John M. Chu is a bad prediction lol. If you look at the last 10 years, the Directors are the snobbiest branch in the academy. They rarely ever pick a populist film. Wicked has too much of a hollywood studio feel, that it screams DGA nom (if it has high Box Office) but Oscar snub. If Kosinski and Gerwig couldn't hack it the last 2 years, there's no way Chu does. Emilia Perez has been truly reviled by the masses, not a top 5 player. Conclave is sharply made, but likely too silly/airport novel thriller-y for the Directors branch. I think Perri missed the mark this episode lol. More auteur-driven options like Coralie Fargeat and RaMell Ross (neither mentioned here) scream Oscar morning surprises to me. Remember 2012?
The substance is divisive amongst critics. People are wildly overrating it’s shot at the Oscar’s. I think Nosferatu has a way better shot than the substance at scoring Oscar nods. I will only posit that John m Chu has two things going for him. 1) wicked is a musical 2) he is an Asian man and will break up the white man’s club that will put a stranglehold on this year’s race. Also, Conclave is they type of political thriller that the traditional Academy loves and will lap up. The nom is not guranteed, but the cinematography and production design is stunning.
@@MrChaseBlue IMO Fargeat has a stronger narrative than Chu. And also a more director-driven film. I'd love to see Nosferatu, I think it's definitely getting a few crafts, but maybe too genre for Director. As for Conclave, you made a good case as to why it's getting Picture, not Director. He couldn't get in for All Quiet, which was a way bigger tech player. I'd bet against Conclave getting Cinematography or Production Design as of now.
@@allenschneider8579 I take RT audience scores with a grain of salt. "Empire Of Light" has a similar rating. I'm sure it has it's fans, but it's clearly not a top 5 contender and too flawed for Best Director.
@@MrChaseBlueboth actually work against him. He's not Speilberg and the Asian thing is not gonna matter here. The directors branch will not care if they choose 5 white guys.
Anora, Brutalist and Conclave are definitely in - slots 4 and 5 are unsure - Emilia Pérez (I love it but it'll be too much for many folks, especially general audience), Denis Villeneuve (he deserves it), The Substance or Nickel Boys could also make it...
Denis Villenueve got snubbed for Dune pt1, most resonings behind that say it was because it was a part 1. Don´t you think that could work against Jon MChu and Wicked?
Scott, with all due respect, and this is a sincere question but are these 5 movies your actual *predictions* or your personal favorites? Because if I didn’t watch FYC, I wouldn’t even know of September 5’s existence. I’ve seen zero excitement for that movie (in my bubble at least).
@@Gavin48 I’m not saying I won’t like it. Just from what I’ve seen, I’m not sure if it’s going to be Best Picture worthy, but I guess I’ll have to see.
@@sreyangovender3404 People say this in the comments every season and I don’t understand why. If we look at how often predictions are correct, he’s not the most accurate of the 3. No shade to Jeff, love all 3 but there seems to be a populist response to him that includes negating Scott and Perri’s abilities but there’s little results to back it up.
@@OdditiesofTylerThat still doesn't disprove that Jeff is the only one with some sense. How in the actual hell is Emilia Perez a serious best picture favorite?
@ To me, the point of the show is prognosticating the nominations and then the winners. They think it will be nominated based on a heap of evidence that indicates that it likely will be. Whether or not you liked the movie is beyond the point and hardly justifies saying that Scott and Perri have no sense. There are plenty of movies over the years that I heavily disliked but understood they would likely be nominated.
I am sad to hear that Dune Part 2 seems to have fallen off in awards conversation. It's the best movie I have seen so far this year and it will be travesty if it doesn't at least get a nomination for best picture. Note I have not seen a few of the movies that you have talked about. No way there are 10 other movies better than that movie. As far as director goes I am with Jeff that Denis Villeneuve should get a nomination.
I can see Gladiator II being this year’s Wakanda Forever where it gets in for one acting nod (in this case Denzel) & then a bunch of tech & craft nominations
@toxic1strike167 No, it isn't. I really think so. Incendies, Blade Runner 2049, Sicario, Arrival, Prisoners... - all of them are better than Dune 2, in my opinion. Maybe some of his earlier films, when he was starting as director, are weaker than Dune 2 but I haven't watched them. Out of those I mention above, which I have watched, it's the worst.
1. Sean Baker (Anora) 2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) 3. Edward Berger (Conclave) 4. Denis Villeneuve (Dune II) 5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) I found Emilia Perez super average, so I had to take Jacques Audiard out. I wish Luca Guadagnino would get in for Challengers.
I always follow FYC and I think they always have their frontrunners in the right place, but Dune 2 is being so sidelined into the number 5 conversation, and now its out. I think they are underestimating the love for Dune 2. I am not alone in saying its one of the best movies of the decade. I still think Anora will win, but Denis has to be in the Top 3. But maybe Im wrong and overestimating Dune 2. I know many experts arent sure about it, I just hope The Academy rewards it. My Top 5: 1 Sean Baker - Anora 2 Brady Corbet - The Brutalist 3 Denis Villeneuve - Dune 2 4 Edward Berger - Conclave 5 Emilia Perez - Jacques Audiard (uncertain about my 5, could be the Maestro of this year, its divisive)
Your Top 4 are the same as mine, just Brady Corbet at 1 and Sean Baker at 2. I think Emilia Perez may be too divisive. My 5th slot comes down to RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or Coralie Fargeat for The Substance.
Exactly, and if they decide to remove Emilia Pérez, I hope they at least nominate something original, daring and interesting like Nickel Boys or The Substance and avoid boring Oscar bait-y stuff like Blitz or A Complete Unknown....
I don't get Anora being the front runner. I liked it but it's like a watered down Uncut Gems meets Pretty Woman. Nowhere near as expertly directed as Dune Part 2. What are we doing here?
my Oscars 2025 Best Director predictions (November 16 2024) top 5 Brady Corbet - The Brutalist Coralie Fargeat - The Substance Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two Edward Berger - Conclave next-in-line: Sean Wang - Dìdi Robert Eggers - Nosferatu RaMell Ross - Nickel Boys Steve McQueen - Blitz Tim Fehlbaum - September 5 Payal Kapadia - All We Imagine As Light Pablo Larraín - Maria
I think RaMell Ross may be a sleeper this year. The directors' branch in particular feel like they would go for an achievement like that, and even if some don't care for the movie he will no doubt get some #1 votes. Great vid as always!
After seeing Emilia Perez, I think while Corbet and Baker are sure to be safe, I think the divisive reaction may open the door for Coralie Fargeat for The Substance.
Granted , I haven’t seen wicked , but I feel like the director category is sort of notoriously partial to stuff that’s generally more high brow (whatever that means). Not sure there’s a precedent for something like Wicked. Kosinski couldn’t get in for Maverick, not even Villeneuve for Dune 1. I don’t know how Chu can make it in when the likes of those couldn’t. Maybe they’re not the right comparisons to look to - I welcome the debate!!
I'm with Jeff on this one. I think Brady Corbet is the front runner for his work on The Brutalist. I've got Sean Baker nipping at his heels in second place. I think there very well could be a Best Picture/Director split this season. Anora winning Best Picture & Brady Corbet winning Best Director. I have Denis Villeneuve solidly in third place. I think his oversight for Dune Part One definitely works to his advantage this time around; the second movie was far superior imo. I also agree with Jeff, Conclave is showing tremendous staying power so I have Edward Berger in fourth. That comes down to the fifth slot, and I have it down to two directors. No, it's not Jon M. Chu. I think the fact that Wicked Part 1 is the first of two movies hinders its chances just like it did for Denis Villeneuve. Plus it's a populist film like Barbie & the director's branch don't favor that type of movie. If Wicked Part 2 is just as strong I could possibly see him getting nominated next year. It's not Jacques Audiard; I think from what I've heard that movie is too divisive. My last slot comes down to RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys & Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. Both are tremendous feats of direction. I'm favoring RaMell Ross right now just because of genre bias (especially within the Director's branch). If The Substance starts picking up precursor nominations I might change to Coralie Fargeat down the line. As always everyone fantastic conversation!!!
I agree with Jeff about The Brutalist. I saw it at tiff and I feel like it towers above many contenders this year. Brady Corbet should win Best Director. It has such a grand and bold vision that is to be greatly admired. Cannot wait to see it again and again.
I haven’t seen Gladiator 2 yet but I feel even if I do like Gladiator 2, there’s nothing for me that would say that Ridley should get the nomination over Denis.
I rarely seem to be inline with Jeff, but I completely agree. I don’t think Jon M. Chu is making it into the final 5. AND I think Jacques Audiard is also going to slip out of the final 5 on Oscar nominations morning. Emilia Perez is creatively directed, but I would not call it masterfully directed, that film benefitted a lot from the film festival rose goggles. Also, I do think Denis Villeneuve is getting in. Let’s go Jeff! 🎉 PS. I think Coralie Fargaet will make it in, I think The Substance’s Oscar chances are going up!
If I had my way the nominees would be as follows. Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez Sean Wang for Didi Mehdi Idir and Grand Corps Malade for Monsieur Aznavour Luke Gilford for National Anthem Vera Drew for The People’s Joker And Jane Schoenbrun for I Saw The TV Glow
@@davidfilmexpert No need to call people names guys. Art is subjective & everyone's opinions are valid. Perri's always been excellent when reading the temperature of the room. Movies are fun, keep the conversation upbeat & positive.
@@davidfilmexpert Calling someone ignorant is not an insult? lol What world do you live in? I don't know but your original comment sounded like whining to me. END OF DISCUSSION.
I absolutely think Brady Corbet should win Best Director hands down. Anora will probably take Best Picture = best of both worlds for the top 2 contenders this year. I think Brady is the most deserving of the Oscar. He took on a mammoth task in a 3 & 1/2 long epic on 70mm film. With a low budget that looked like it was worth 200 million. It’s like he gave us back old school filmmaking. Just so incredibly well done, well shot, well acted, & well made with him at the helm. I think Brady should be awarded amongst the greats filmmakers. I have no doubt that Denis Villeneuve will finally win for his last Dune movie. 🤞
What Denis did in Dune 2 eclipses anything anyone has done all year! He should be the front runner. It is so frustrating to see how you guys dismiss his work so nonchalantly. IMO no one even comes close to Dune 2 and Denis’ direction.
Chu as a best director contender would be ... surprising. Villeneuve/Dune 2 has earned a lot of goodwill, although both Chu and Villeneuve might be at a disadvantage because they'll have another chance (Part II and Dune 3, respectively). I think Ross/Nickle Boys is in the running.
@@fearlessweaver I think they may go this way. I really hope they won't because I feel it should be the best that year. Same idea, Adrian Brody should win if he is the best. He shouldn't lose because he won already.
While I still have Emilia Perez on my predictions list sight unseen, and I do agree Jeff about the general public reaction. NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour had an episode about it with one of the panelists being a trans woman, and there was a general discourse about the film, especially with the trans experience, especially when the director is cis male. So the fact it is getting not much love from the general public is a little concerning for its chances for me. Not saying it can't get the nomination for Picture and Director, but I would not be surprised if those in 6, 7, 8, 9 (Coralie Fargeat, Jon M. Chu, Ridley Scott, RaMell Ross for me) get in the director list, because of this reaction.
It really bugs me the way Clint Eastwood and Juror #2 was treated by Warner Brothers by not giving it a wide release in theaters. I thought the trailer looked good and I would have went to see it in theaters. I heard it might be Eastwood's last movie? If it that is true and Warner knew it then they missed a big opportunity by not promoting that and releasing it wide given the response to people that have seen it has been positive and all the fans Eastwood has given everything he has accomplished. To the CEO of Warner sorry loyalty does count in my book given everything Eastwood has done in film as an actor & director he deserved better treatment.
People will say everything is overhyped but challengers and Deadpool and Wolverine were good. Anora deserves every accolade it's getting Sean baker is done his due time in the industry from the bottom sharpening his style then kinda perfecting it with tangerine and really breaking through with the Florida project Another young legend Julia ducournau whipped him last time at cannes (titane and red rocket are both 10/10 for me ) And he came back with a vengeance His directing has never been sharper than anora and easily my choice for best director and I feel like he has a good chance It's good to see the public like something good for once
I really don’t think Jacques Audiard gets in. There’s been so much negativity surrounding the movie (I also didn’t love it) and if they’re gonna put in a director for a musical, the reactions to Wicked seem to be better than Emilia Perez. I also think that September 5 is not happening at all. I think the 5 will be 1. Sean Baker - Anora 2. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist 3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part 2 4. Edward Berger - Conclave 5. Jon M. Chu - Wicked Would love to see Robert Eggers get in for Nosferatu, and Coralie Fargeat for The Substance would also be deserving: just wish the Academy didn’t have their bias against horror
Emilia Perez blew me away. Awesome, audacious filmmaking and I’d love to see Saldana, Gascon, and Audiard win in their respective categories. I don’t think Denis gets in and my girlfriend and I loved the first hour of The Substance but thought the second hour became a silly mess. Can’t wait to see The Brutalist!
I want Todd Phillips to get in for the LOLZ. He can be the Trump of this Season. The fallout would be legendary. But seriously the directing in Joker 2 is Elite. Plus people like QT have praised him.
Joker 2 was a direct F you to Trumpist incels and an indictment of American culture’s lack of empathy. It’s the most anti Trump film yet made. The clown brigade in the court room are a proxy for Trump supporters. Mind blowing right?
Nolan was batting 1,000 from Memento to Interstellar. Since then, I haven't liked any of his last three films. You might say A Complete Unknown is the unknown at this point hehe.
Coralie Fargeat better get a nomination. Finally a woman who truly deserves a nomination. It's been so long since Chloé Zhao, Emerald Fennell & Jane Campion. Were the last truly deserving noms and Winners.
I do not know why everyone are not considering the other actors from Anora especially the ones who played Ivan, Igor and Toros… is it because they are not americans nor british? I am happy Sean Baker and especially Mickey being recognized… but damn, ANORA has a great ensemble cast.
I couldnt agree more with Jeff here. I do see Wicked rising up so that’s a possibility. But sad to say this, Scott has always been personal picking recently and not really predicting and understanding the current temp
Well Dune 2 was very popular. It's not about popularity. It's about politics and release date. Dune part 2 will definitely get a Director and Best Picture nomination. History would look so bad on the oscars if they don't nominate the only movie this year that will actually be relevant in the future.
@@PerriNemiroff I get it but Emilia Perez is not as good as U think It’s clever but not best picture the average person will not like it Wicked can wait just like Dune was sidelined with 2 parts DV created an incredible set & filmed in difficult circumstances SAND!
@@stephaniemoore9122 Oscars isn't People's choice awards, Emilia Pérez is indeed excellent, a bit unconventional for the average audience but so was Zone of Interest for example... Plus, Netflix is very experienced with campaigns sooo....
@@stephaniemoore9122 It’s very bizarre to say that something isn’t as good as you think it is. It’s an opinion. It’s like telling someone that they don’t actually like ice cream as much as they say they do. I loved Emilia Perez. You didn’t. Is either of us incorrect? No. We just had different experiences.
I think it's gonna be: Sean Baker, Brady Corbet, Denis Villeneuve, Edward Berger, and Coralie Fargeat
Mine as well.
I can totally agree on those picks 👍🏼
Completely agree, but Fargeat or Berger could definitely be swapped for Audiard
Forgeat Fargeat.
If substance takes out emila perez for any category I'll jump for fucking joy.
Coralie Fargeat should not be overlooked. The Substance opened to 3.1 million and is now over 16 million and counting.
i agree with jeff, this category is baker x corbet
Jeff's love for The Brutalist makes me want to see it more than any trailer/commercial/clip I've seen
Unfortunately, I think you’ll be disappointed. The hype makes little sense to me personally after seeing it at the Chicago International Film Festival: a great cinematic achievement sure, but it lacks emotion, depth, proper thematic development, and builds to nothing. Not an amazing movie.
Dune 2 is a cinematic spectacle, I was blown away by that movie. I would hate if Denis wasn't even nominated
Even if Wicked becomes top contender, Jon Chu is not getting in because the directors branch is very exclusive and Denis V missed for doing part one of two/three movies, so same will happen to Chu (‘Get in line, kid’).
i desagree, Wicked Part one is a huge sucess, and because of the fans They will give him nomination plus he did an amazing Job, and same for Denis for Dune.
choosing to believe the award experts are having collective amnesia about Dune 2 coming out this year
like, how is THAT film being ignored???
Because it's a sequel to a movie that dominated only in technical categories many years ago when the competition was very weak. Now we are post Covid. Competition is far far far stronger
It's a part 2 in a trilogy. Look at fellowship of the ring and two towers compared to how return of the king was embraced by the academy. Likely people will be hesitant until we see the whole story.
@@Gavin48 This is a different movie though, it's even better.
@TheRealJKJones It's better. But like the 1st Movie. Dune is beautiful to look at. But it lacks heart and the human element. Compare it to The Substance. Where you go on an emotional rollercoaster with the main character. Or the complexity of the characters in Anora. It's clear that Dune lacks the very key element of what a movie should have.
Nobody on the entire planet could have pulled off Dune part 2 the way Denis did. People will be talking about Dune part 2 far longer than any of these other movies. If it came out right now it would be the favorite for both Best Picture and Best Director wins. In ten years are we really going to be going back to Anora and be like yeah that deserves a spot in history over the masterpiece in every category that was Dune Part 2?
Directors branch dont care about this
No one is giving DUNE 2 its credit. Wait.
It's so obviously getting nominated for best director and best picture. These guys think way too highly of these festival movies that nobody is going to watch.
It blows my mind that Denis could get overlooked. It's so obviously the most impressive Directorial feat of the year.
Denis has only been nominated once sadly
The March release date hurt it for the Oscar’s if it released in November it would be in everyone’s list
@@blakequick3099 really? Why didn’t that matter last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once?
Is there a possibility that a poll will be provided for future editions as to what the community has for top 5 picks for each category?
I'm sorry but John M. Chu is a bad prediction lol. If you look at the last 10 years, the Directors are the snobbiest branch in the academy. They rarely ever pick a populist film. Wicked has too much of a hollywood studio feel, that it screams DGA nom (if it has high Box Office) but Oscar snub. If Kosinski and Gerwig couldn't hack it the last 2 years, there's no way Chu does.
Emilia Perez has been truly reviled by the masses, not a top 5 player. Conclave is sharply made, but likely too silly/airport novel thriller-y for the Directors branch. I think Perri missed the mark this episode lol.
More auteur-driven options like Coralie Fargeat and RaMell Ross (neither mentioned here) scream Oscar morning surprises to me. Remember 2012?
The substance is divisive amongst critics. People are wildly overrating it’s shot at the Oscar’s. I think Nosferatu has a way better shot than the substance at scoring Oscar nods.
I will only posit that John m Chu has two things going for him. 1) wicked is a musical 2) he is an Asian man and will break up the white man’s club that will put a stranglehold on this year’s race.
Also, Conclave is they type of political thriller that the traditional Academy loves and will lap up. The nom is not guranteed, but the cinematography and production design is stunning.
@@MrChaseBlue IMO Fargeat has a stronger narrative than Chu. And also a more director-driven film. I'd love to see Nosferatu, I think it's definitely getting a few crafts, but maybe too genre for Director.
As for Conclave, you made a good case as to why it's getting Picture, not Director. He couldn't get in for All Quiet, which was a way bigger tech player. I'd bet against Conclave getting Cinematography or Production Design as of now.
Emilia Perez with 80% audience score doesn't seem "reviled" to me.
@@allenschneider8579 I take RT audience scores with a grain of salt. "Empire Of Light" has a similar rating. I'm sure it has it's fans, but it's clearly not a top 5 contender and too flawed for Best Director.
@@MrChaseBlueboth actually work against him. He's not Speilberg and the Asian thing is not gonna matter here. The directors branch will not care if they choose 5 white guys.
Anora, Brutalist and Conclave are definitely in - slots 4 and 5 are unsure - Emilia Pérez (I love it but it'll be too much for many folks, especially general audience), Denis Villeneuve (he deserves it), The Substance or Nickel Boys could also make it...
All due respect, I do not like Emilia Perez at all. I agree with Jeff for once.
Denis Villenueve got snubbed for Dune pt1, most resonings behind that say it was because it was a part 1. Don´t you think that could work against Jon MChu and Wicked?
Thanks for another fun FYC guys.
Scott, with all due respect, and this is a sincere question but are these 5 movies your actual *predictions* or your personal favorites? Because if I didn’t watch FYC, I wouldn’t even know of September 5’s existence. I’ve seen zero excitement for that movie (in my bubble at least).
It only played in a few festivals.
After seeing Emilia Perez, I think it's pretty insane that movie is even close to this awards season
I’ve seen two clips from it & it’s baffling to me that it’s a favorite.
@@calebjeter6012judging a movie on 2 clips taken out of contest tsk tsk tsk
@@Gavin48 I’m not saying I won’t like it. Just from what I’ve seen, I’m not sure if it’s going to be Best Picture worthy, but I guess I’ll have to see.
I thought it had a really cool premise but the second hour just totally lost me.
Why is Jeff the only one with sense on the panel?
@@sreyangovender3404 always
@@sreyangovender3404 People say this in the comments every season and I don’t understand why. If we look at how often predictions are correct, he’s not the most accurate of the 3. No shade to Jeff, love all 3 but there seems to be a populist response to him that includes negating Scott and Perri’s abilities but there’s little results to back it up.
Always
@@OdditiesofTylerThat still doesn't disprove that Jeff is the only one with some sense. How in the actual hell is Emilia Perez a serious best picture favorite?
@ To me, the point of the show is prognosticating the nominations and then the winners. They think it will be nominated based on a heap of evidence that indicates that it likely will be. Whether or not you liked the movie is beyond the point and hardly justifies saying that Scott and Perri have no sense. There are plenty of movies over the years that I heavily disliked but understood they would likely be nominated.
I am sad to hear that Dune Part 2 seems to have fallen off in awards conversation. It's the best movie I have seen so far this year and it will be travesty if it doesn't at least get a nomination for best picture. Note I have not seen a few of the movies that you have talked about. No way there are 10 other movies better than that movie. As far as director goes I am with Jeff that Denis Villeneuve should get a nomination.
I can see Gladiator II being this year’s Wakanda Forever where it gets in for one acting nod (in this case Denzel) & then a bunch of tech & craft nominations
Denis should get it this time since he was robbed by the Cringerish Pizza the first time.
Dune 2 is Villeneuve's worst film. It's very overrated.
@@ktom5262 wannabe
@@ktom5262even if you don’t like it, to say that it’s his worst film in such an awful take
@toxic1strike167 No, it isn't. I really think so. Incendies, Blade Runner 2049, Sicario, Arrival, Prisoners... - all of them are better than Dune 2, in my opinion. Maybe some of his earlier films, when he was starting as director, are weaker than Dune 2 but I haven't watched them. Out of those I mention above, which I have watched, it's the worst.
@@ktom5262 Yeah I mostly agree but its about the competition this year not comparing Dune 2 to the rest of his work.
Love the Talk To Me hand in the background, Perri. I don’t scare easily, but I’m not sure I could keep one in my house, cool as it is 😅
I agree with Jeff about Emilia Perez.
1. Sean Baker (Anora)
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
3. Edward Berger (Conclave)
4. Denis Villeneuve (Dune II)
5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
I found Emilia Perez super average, so I had to take Jacques Audiard out.
I wish Luca Guadagnino would get in for Challengers.
I always follow FYC and I think they always have their frontrunners in the right place, but Dune 2 is being so sidelined into the number 5 conversation, and now its out. I think they are underestimating the love for Dune 2. I am not alone in saying its one of the best movies of the decade. I still think Anora will win, but Denis has to be in the Top 3. But maybe Im wrong and overestimating Dune 2. I know many experts arent sure about it, I just hope The Academy rewards it.
My Top 5:
1 Sean Baker - Anora
2 Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
3 Denis Villeneuve - Dune 2
4 Edward Berger - Conclave
5 Emilia Perez - Jacques Audiard (uncertain about my 5, could be the Maestro of this year, its divisive)
Your Top 4 are the same as mine, just Brady Corbet at 1 and Sean Baker at 2. I think Emilia Perez may be too divisive. My 5th slot comes down to RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or Coralie Fargeat for The Substance.
Exactly, and if they decide to remove Emilia Pérez, I hope they at least nominate something original, daring and interesting like Nickel Boys or The Substance and avoid boring Oscar bait-y stuff like Blitz or A Complete Unknown....
I don't get Anora being the front runner. I liked it but it's like a watered down Uncut Gems meets Pretty Woman. Nowhere near as expertly directed as Dune Part 2. What are we doing here?
No way the director's branch goes for Wicked.
Exactly. Even if it ends up winning best pic.
Yeah I think it has a shot at picture honestly depending on the reception, but director? No way. That's going to Sean Baker I'm pretty sure.
@@shadysorkin9214 Probably Brady Corbet
my Oscars 2025 Best Director predictions (November 16 2024)
top 5
Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez
Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
Edward Berger - Conclave
next-in-line:
Sean Wang - Dìdi
Robert Eggers - Nosferatu
RaMell Ross - Nickel Boys
Steve McQueen - Blitz
Tim Fehlbaum - September 5
Payal Kapadia - All We Imagine As Light
Pablo Larraín - Maria
I think RaMell Ross may be a sleeper this year. The directors' branch in particular feel like they would go for an achievement like that, and even if some don't care for the movie he will no doubt get some #1 votes. Great vid as always!
There's no way Chu should be nominated over Villeneuve.
Fr, I might not watch them if that happens.
The Dune disrespect just wait
I want Coralie to get in for director so badly can’t wait for wicked :)
My Anora screening was empty. But Vegas is a strange market.
I keep hoping Ridley Scott finally wins. He should get a honorary Oscar.
zero percent chance
Dennis should be in
Just watched Emilia Perez and find it hard to believe it is even being considered as an awards movie this season.
Ridley Scott needs to learn his lesson and make a serious movie in order to finally get his Oscar. Jumping the shark is not the way.
After seeing Emilia Perez, I think while Corbet and Baker are sure to be safe, I think the divisive reaction may open the door for Coralie Fargeat for The Substance.
That would be awesome!! She'll definitely get in for screenplay but a director nomination would be the cherry on top.
No, it will open the door for other filmmakers, but not for her
Granted , I haven’t seen wicked , but I feel like the director category is sort of notoriously partial to stuff that’s generally more high brow (whatever that means). Not sure there’s a precedent for something like Wicked. Kosinski couldn’t get in for Maverick, not even Villeneuve for Dune 1. I don’t know how Chu can make it in when the likes of those couldn’t. Maybe they’re not the right comparisons to look to - I welcome the debate!!
I refuse to accept this Dune 2 slander!
i think you guys are underestimating the substance i think it could have a better shot than gladiator and wicked
Denis V. > Ridley S. > Chu.
Where is a nomination for Denis. The sequel and big film discrimination is crazy.
I'm with Jeff on this one. I think Brady Corbet is the front runner for his work on The Brutalist. I've got Sean Baker nipping at his heels in second place. I think there very well could be a Best Picture/Director split this season. Anora winning Best Picture & Brady Corbet winning Best Director. I have Denis Villeneuve solidly in third place. I think his oversight for Dune Part One definitely works to his advantage this time around; the second movie was far superior imo. I also agree with Jeff, Conclave is showing tremendous staying power so I have Edward Berger in fourth. That comes down to the fifth slot, and I have it down to two directors. No, it's not Jon M. Chu. I think the fact that Wicked Part 1 is the first of two movies hinders its chances just like it did for Denis Villeneuve. Plus it's a populist film like Barbie & the director's branch don't favor that type of movie. If Wicked Part 2 is just as strong I could possibly see him getting nominated next year. It's not Jacques Audiard; I think from what I've heard that movie is too divisive. My last slot comes down to RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys & Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. Both are tremendous feats of direction. I'm favoring RaMell Ross right now just because of genre bias (especially within the Director's branch). If The Substance starts picking up precursor nominations I might change to Coralie Fargeat down the line. As always everyone fantastic conversation!!!
You guys love to tout everyone. The Brutalist and Brady Corbet are Oscar shoo-ins
I agree with Jeff about The Brutalist. I saw it at tiff and I feel like it towers above many contenders this year. Brady Corbet should win Best Director. It has such a grand and bold vision that is to be greatly admired. Cannot wait to see it again and again.
I haven’t seen Gladiator 2 yet but I feel even if I do like Gladiator 2, there’s nothing for me that would say that Ridley should get the nomination over Denis.
@ even off the footage I’ve seen I don’t know if I necessarily would say it looks like it’s straight to DVD.
I rarely seem to be inline with Jeff, but I completely agree. I don’t think Jon M. Chu is making it into the final 5. AND I think Jacques Audiard is also going to slip out of the final 5 on Oscar nominations morning. Emilia Perez is creatively directed, but I would not call it masterfully directed, that film benefitted a lot from the film festival rose goggles.
Also, I do think Denis Villeneuve is getting in. Let’s go Jeff! 🎉
PS. I think Coralie Fargaet will make it in, I think The Substance’s Oscar chances are going up!
You almost had me there until you inserted Fargeat and The Substance. No way she’s getting in.
@@myytchanneldinakoha8498 I absolutely love The Substance so I guess it’s wishful thinking, but it so meticulously directed so there is a sell there.
Dune 2
If I had my way the nominees would be as follows.
Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez
Sean Wang for Didi
Mehdi Idir and Grand Corps Malade for Monsieur Aznavour
Luke Gilford for National Anthem
Vera Drew for The People’s Joker
And
Jane Schoenbrun for I Saw The TV Glow
It’s crazy that there’s no mention of Ra’Mell Ross for Nickel Boys here. I think everyone should be taking him seriously to get that fifth nomination.
Mad they went with Chu over Villeneuve.
@@davidfilmexpert No need to call people names guys. Art is subjective & everyone's opinions are valid. Perri's always been excellent when reading the temperature of the room. Movies are fun, keep the conversation upbeat & positive.
@@davidfilmexpert "Ignorant ideas" is calling someone ignorant, sorry.
@@davidfilmexpert Calling someone ignorant is not an insult? lol What world do you live in? I don't know but your original comment sounded like whining to me. END OF DISCUSSION.
They're being ridiculous.
I absolutely think Brady Corbet should win Best Director hands down. Anora will probably take Best Picture = best of both worlds for the top 2 contenders this year.
I think Brady is the most deserving of the Oscar. He took on a mammoth task in a 3 & 1/2 long epic on 70mm film. With a low budget that looked like it was worth 200 million.
It’s like he gave us back old school filmmaking. Just so incredibly well done, well shot, well acted, & well made with him at the helm. I think Brady should be awarded amongst the greats filmmakers.
I have no doubt that Denis Villeneuve will finally win for his last Dune movie. 🤞
What Denis did in Dune 2 eclipses anything anyone has done all year! He should be the front runner. It is so frustrating to see how you guys dismiss his work so nonchalantly. IMO no one even comes close to Dune 2 and Denis’ direction.
What happened to last weeks episode???
Chu as a best director contender would be ... surprising. Villeneuve/Dune 2 has earned a lot of goodwill, although both Chu and Villeneuve might be at a disadvantage because they'll have another chance (Part II and Dune 3, respectively). I think Ross/Nickle Boys is in the running.
@@fearlessweaver I think they may go this way. I really hope they won't because I feel it should be the best that year. Same idea, Adrian Brody should win if he is the best. He shouldn't lose because he won already.
I wanna see Coralie Fargeat get a nomination, and Ridley Scott win this category of Best Director
While I still have Emilia Perez on my predictions list sight unseen, and I do agree Jeff about the general public reaction. NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour had an episode about it with one of the panelists being a trans woman, and there was a general discourse about the film, especially with the trans experience, especially when the director is cis male. So the fact it is getting not much love from the general public is a little concerning for its chances for me. Not saying it can't get the nomination for Picture and Director, but I would not be surprised if those in 6, 7, 8, 9 (Coralie Fargeat, Jon M. Chu, Ridley Scott, RaMell Ross for me) get in the director list, because of this reaction.
This probably recency bias but after just seeing Anora last weekend, I'm pulling for Sean Baker
I have the feeling Robert Eggers might make the cut. Even Clint Eastwood could make the cut.
It really bugs me the way Clint Eastwood and Juror #2 was treated by Warner Brothers by not giving it a wide release in theaters. I thought the trailer looked good and I would have went to see it in theaters. I heard it might be Eastwood's last movie? If it that is true and Warner knew it then they missed a big opportunity by not promoting that and releasing it wide given the response to people that have seen it has been positive and all the fans Eastwood has given everything he has accomplished. To the CEO of Warner sorry loyalty does count in my book given everything Eastwood has done in film as an actor & director he deserved better treatment.
I couldn't agree more! I mean.....check out the score on Rotten Tomatoes!!!!!
im with Mantz, i loved Gladiator 2, but i do think it will be hard for him to crack the race
People will say everything is overhyped but challengers and Deadpool and Wolverine were good. Anora deserves every accolade it's getting
Sean baker is done his due time in the industry from the bottom sharpening his style then kinda perfecting it with tangerine and really breaking through with the Florida project
Another young legend Julia ducournau whipped him last time at cannes (titane and red rocket are both 10/10 for me )
And he came back with a vengeance
His directing has never been sharper than anora and easily my choice for best director and I feel like he has a good chance
It's good to see the public like something good for once
Sean Baker
Brady Corbet
Edward Berger
Robert Eggers
Clint Eastwood
I have Brody Corbet, Sean Baker, Jacques Audiard, Ramel Ross and Denis Villeneuve
I really don’t think Jacques Audiard gets in. There’s been so much negativity surrounding the movie (I also didn’t love it) and if they’re gonna put in a director for a musical, the reactions to Wicked seem to be better than Emilia Perez. I also think that September 5 is not happening at all.
I think the 5 will be
1. Sean Baker - Anora
2. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part 2
4. Edward Berger - Conclave
5. Jon M. Chu - Wicked
Would love to see Robert Eggers get in for Nosferatu, and Coralie Fargeat for The Substance would also be deserving: just wish the Academy didn’t have their bias against horror
Emilia Perez blew me away. Awesome, audacious filmmaking and I’d love to see Saldana, Gascon, and Audiard win in their respective categories.
I don’t think Denis gets in and my girlfriend and I loved the first hour of The Substance but thought the second hour became a silly mess.
Can’t wait to see The Brutalist!
Perri always looks like she's holding her breath waiting for Jeff to say something controversial lol
Love Gladiator 2 and i hope Ridley Scott will be nominated too
I want Todd Phillips to get in for the LOLZ. He can be the Trump of this Season. The fallout would be legendary. But seriously the directing in Joker 2 is Elite. Plus people like QT have praised him.
Joker 2 was a direct F you to Trumpist incels and an indictment of American culture’s lack of empathy. It’s the most anti Trump film yet made. The clown brigade in the court room are a proxy for Trump supporters. Mind blowing right?
Perri: Go Wicked! 👍💯♥️
7:12
As a trans girlie I am all about his 2015 masterpiece Tangerine, which should have gotten the same amount of love Anora is getting this year!
Nolan was batting 1,000 from Memento to Interstellar. Since then, I haven't liked any of his last three films.
You might say A Complete Unknown is the unknown at this point hehe.
Coralie Fargeat better get a nomination. Finally a woman who truly deserves a nomination. It's been so long since Chloé Zhao, Emerald Fennell & Jane Campion. Were the last truly deserving noms and Winners.
God I’m so hyped for the Brutalist
It’s incredible. See it as fast as you can
agree with jeff. emilia perez is a headscratcher of a film
I do not know why everyone are not considering the other actors from Anora especially the ones who played Ivan, Igor and Toros… is it because they are not americans nor british? I am happy Sean Baker and especially Mickey being recognized… but damn, ANORA has a great ensemble cast.
Yeah, I think that for the first time since 1998 the Director line-up will be 5/5 first-time nominees.
Substance has more audience support than Anora. But Anorak's great.
And that Substance theme should be nominated best song, if there's too many Score noms
Why is Denis getting a spot because of “who he is?” Making Dune into a movie was supposed to be an impossible task
Why are people calling Emilia Pérez Emilia Perez?
In a perfect world, BOTH Coppola and Clint would receive nominations. imo.
The reason this works is because of how different these guys are.
I couldnt agree more with Jeff here. I do see Wicked rising up so that’s a possibility. But sad to say this, Scott has always been personal picking recently and not really predicting and understanding the current temp
I was very underwhelmed after watching Amelia Perez!
What about Rammell Ross?
YASSS Jon M Chu! x
I hope Coraline gets a nod
Corbet, Baker, Villeneuve, Audiard, Fargeat. I wanna put Berger in because I loved the way he staged that movie, but I ultimately think he'll miss.
You guys didn’t even mention Nickel Boys. Really should be considered for a nomination
Denis has to get in. I don't know who has to be dropped out, probably Berger or Chu.
Woooo!
Furiousa and DUNE 2 are far superior directed movies but i lo e how it boils down to, oh its not cool or popular enough. Oscars are a joke
Well Dune 2 was very popular. It's not about popularity. It's about politics and release date. Dune part 2 will definitely get a Director and Best Picture nomination. History would look so bad on the oscars if they don't nominate the only movie this year that will actually be relevant in the future.
I like Emilia Perez but it feels like this year’s Green Book where the public has middling reception but it’ll speak to academy people
It’s a shame that it might be an all male category, the director of The Substance is deserving
Why is it a shame? It should go the best directors of the year. No other factor should matter at all.
Jeff Jeff Jeff. The movie is 3hrs long. Nominated yes. Win? Has Paul Thomas Anderson won yet?
For sure the Directors branch will not forget about Dune/Denis
Perri & her “feelings”
@@stephaniemoore9122 This would be a mighty boring conversation without feelings. 😉
@@PerriNemiroff I get it but Emilia Perez is not as good as U think
It’s clever but not best picture the average person will not like it
Wicked can wait just like Dune was sidelined with 2 parts
DV created an incredible set & filmed in difficult circumstances SAND!
@@stephaniemoore9122 Oscars isn't People's choice awards, Emilia Pérez is indeed excellent, a bit unconventional for the average audience but so was Zone of Interest for example... Plus, Netflix is very experienced with campaigns sooo....
@ imo
@@stephaniemoore9122 It’s very bizarre to say that something isn’t as good as you think it is. It’s an opinion. It’s like telling someone that they don’t actually like ice cream as much as they say they do. I loved Emilia Perez. You didn’t. Is either of us incorrect? No. We just had different experiences.
Walter Salles for Im still here
❤️ Sneider
Mantz
Perri
Audiard, Baker, Berger, Corbet, Villeneuve