RUSSIA-JAPAN | A Kuril Islands Conflict?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 มิ.ย. 2024
- As Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, there have been growing concerns that tensions are rising between Russia and Japan over the Kuril Islands. Stretching across 1200 kilometres, or 750 miles, between Hokkaido and the Khamchatka Peninsula, the southern part of the archipelago has been a source of friction between Tokyo and Moscow since the end of the Second World War. So, could we see a conflict between Russia and Japan over the islands?
Hello and welcome! My name is James Ker-Lindsay. Here I take an informed look at International Relations with a focus on territorial conflicts, secession, independence movements and new countries. If you like what you see, please do subscribe. If you want more, including exclusive content and benefits, consider becoming a channel member. Many thanks!
SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE th-cam.com/users/JamesKerLind...
SUPPORT THE CHANNEL / jameskerlindsay
Since 1945, Japan has been at odds with the Soviet Union and then Russia over the Kuril Islands. Originally divided between them in 1855 under the Treaty of Shimoda - when Japan gained Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and the Habomai Islets - the entire chain was ceded to Japan in 1875 in return for south Sakhalin Island, which was regained in 1905 after the Russo-Japanese War. Although the USSR and Japan signed a Neutrality Pact in 1941, as the war in the Far East drew ended in August 1945, Moscow invaded South Sakhalin and the entire the Kuril Islands chain. In 1956, the two countries signed a Peace Declaration. However, their dispute over the Kuriles, prevented them from signing a formal peace treaty. To this day, Russia and Japan have still not signed an agreement due to the Kuril Islands, which are called the 'Northern Territories' by Japan. But while there had been some sign of progress in recent years, especially following talks between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Russia seems to have become more hardline. This has been especially the case since the start of the war in Ukraine.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction and Titles
0:36 Peace Treaties, Ceasefires and Declarations
1:40 Japan, Russia and the Kuril Islands
2:41 Japan-Russia: Sakhalin and the Kuriles
4:17 The Russo-Japanese War and Second World War
5:26 Japan-USSR Peace Declaration and the Kuril Islands
6:38 Russia-Japan: Post-Cold War Negotiations
8:22 New Tensions over the Kuril Islands
9:50 Japan, Russia and the Kurils: Conflict or Final Peace?
RELATED PLAYLISTS
Current Issues and Disputes • CURRENT ISSUES AND DIS...
International Relations, Conflict and Security in Asia and Oceania • ASIA AND OCEANIA
International Relations, Conflict and Security in the Post-Soviet Space • Ukraine-Belarus | The ...
===============
FURTHER READING & USEFUL SOURCES
Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Northern Territories www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/...
Russia Ministry of Foreign Affairs www.mid.ru
Soviet-Japanese Peace Declaration (1956) worldjpn.grips.ac.jp/document...
treaties.un.org/doc/Publicati...
Japan and Russia: The Tortuous Path to Normalization 1949-1999 amzn.to/3JPhBVW
Japan's Russia: Challenging the East-West Paradigm amzn.to/3JPhJoo
===============
MY BOOKS
Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know amzn.to/2MPY3W2 [PRE-ORDER]
The Cyprus Problem: What Everyone Needs to Know amzn.to/2FaaBU2
Kosovo: The Path to Contested Statehood in the Balkans amzn.to/35jiBN2
The Foreign Policy of Counter-Secession amzn.to/2Qinm5t
My other books amzn.to/2MlP13u
===============
MY PROFILES & SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS
Twitter / jameskerlindsay
LinkedIn / james-ker-lindsay-b31b...
Academia.edu lse.academia.edu/JamesKerLindsay
Research Gate www.researchgate.net/profile/...
===============
EQUIPMENT& TOOL USED TO MAKE THIS VIDEO
Camera: Canon XA40 amzn.to/3CLinzy
Microphone: Røde VideoMic NTG amzn.to/2MAHBZj
Key Light: Elgato amzn.to/3D85kJx
Accent Lights: Aputure MC amzn.to/3kkoGSS
Teleprompter: Parrot 2 amzn.to/2VLcRsm
Tripod: Geekoto 79" Carbon Fibre amzn.to/2wWMNT1
Channel Analytics: TubeBuddy www.tubebuddy.com/JKL
Channel Graphics: motionvfx.sjv.io/NKB34O
===============
KEYWORDS
#Japan #Russia #KurilIslands
#InternationalPolitics #CurrentAffairs #InternationalRelations
#Secession #Statehood #Independence
#InternationalLaw #InternationalHistory
DISCLAIMER: Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel and will be at no additional cost to you.
This issue has been quietly bubbling away these past weeks. But will it get more serious? More to the point, is there any hope for a settlement? As ever, thoughts and comments below.
It all depends on what happens to Russia after Ukraine. However, is China watching this situation more closely than Ukraine?
can you make a video on the Uyghur ethnocide please? this is tantamount to the Holocaust.
@@christhomson8924 He made a previous video about the Uygurs.
Can we get a series on the Russo-Japanese War?
If it gets more serious depends on the various agencies of your country and the US.
As a 30+ year Japan resident, this summary was very accurate. A perspective that was not mentioned is that both Russia and Japan are essentially quibbling over a territory that is ethnically and culturally neither Japanese or Russian. It was the Ainu that occupied these islands. In fact, the large island of Hokkaido was not developed fully until the 19th century and whilst Japan claimed it as territory, the way of life, culture and language of the island was predominantly Ainu. In a vague kind of way, it is as if The United Kingdom and Ireland were quibbling over the Isle of Man whilst all the time ignoring the Manx people. In modern Japan, the Ainu are of course considered to be Japanese although there are plenty of right wing politicians who will deny their existence.
Except that Russia didn't just end up off the north coast of japan by accident. They were/are a colonial power who pushed east at at time whilst Japan and other nations were still in their 'Dormant' stage.
They forced their way of life onto local populations whom they have no natural affinity with.
The same happened with Outer Manchuria, now the Russian Far east. Push, push, push an wait till their is an opportunity to snatch land whilst claiming it was always Russian land since ancient times..
@@calitaliarepublic6753 Current pop of Ainu ethnicity in Japan 25,000. Compared to Russia
@@calitaliarepublic6753 Stats don't lie, Russia colonized and subjugated its way to the Pacific Ocean.
Japan was a late starter to the colonial game. They got into it when they saw how fast the Russian empire expanded, it wasn't until the Meiji restoration that they began to apply the same colonial methods
@@calitaliarepublic6753 - Do know that during the Russian expansion in the Pacific that they could have taken Hawaii but the Russian emperor at that time did not approve of it.
@@ab9840 there's an unspoken protocol between monarchies that kings do not overthrow fellow kings. They instead become nobles of the occupying country, like what Russia did to the Bagrations of Georgia.
An excellent video James! The map animations were really well done! I wonder if you made them yourself? 🤔 I never really understood this dispute until you explained it. I always found it interesting that the two countries never signed an official peace treaty. I think I could perhaps make this into a shorts video idea? 🤔
Enjoy your weekend!
- Asa 🙂
I hope he's alright. He sounds like he's sick or has covid or something. Good information in the video, nevertheless.
BARILOCHE USHUAIA ICE HOCKEY
Timely, relevant, concise, and informative (as usual). Thanks! ✌
James thank you so much for covering this.
Thanks so much! It’s such an interesting and yet little known dispute.
@@JamesKerLindsay I am particularly grateful for your video because this has received limited coverage in English. So helpful to have your clear guide.
Amazing recap of a very much forgotten event in history, thank you professor truly a wonderful job!
Thank you so much. It is such an interesting issue, and surprisingly significant given the key actors. And yet so little known.
Hi James.
Thanks for all you do on your channel. I must I admit I think I've even become addicted to it. Been watching a lot of your contents lately.
Given the current geopolitical situation in this geographic area, it is clear that Japan must re-arm itself inorder to provide it's own ability to defend it's strategic interests. The aggressive and expansionist nature of both Russia's and China's foreign policies makes this clear.
Japan's pacifist constitution, created out of the 2nd WW, is now outdated. It does not meet Japan's current strategic needs.
Japan must rebuild it's military capacity to defend it's strategic interests including neucliar weapons. This is sad, but is the new reality.
Japan currently has one of the strongest standing armies in the entire world, they are more than capable of defending any strategic location and asset. There's no need to rewrite the constitution.
Japan already has a pretty potent Armed Forces, they just didn't assume this name yet, nuclear weapons are the ultimate option to avoid war, they have the money, the technology and ultimately the reason to.
The US already openly supports japanese remilitarization, in extreme cases, they would support their nuclear program too.
@@esteemedyams They don't have nukes. That's the problem. Any Nuclear capable country will ignore their army cause if they threaten attacks on their lands they will threaten nukes.
They have 3 nuclear country enemies (china, north korea and russia). They should go for nuclear armament
This guy gets it!
ANGLO SAXONS GO TO FIGHT
RUSSIANS ARE WAITING
There goes Prof James Ker-Linsday again with amazing content covering important topics most media outlets ignore.
The topic of the Kuril islands is a rough one. I don't imagine Japan will ever get those islands back unless they take them by force.
HIROSHIMA NAGASAKI
THE AMERICAN FRIEND
Great summary - found this dispute to be arising from second world war very interesting. This invasion by Russia is reopening all of its past territorial disputes and like many firsts, a pacifist Japan taking a strong position on this, I'm seeing for the first time
I also find the phenomenon of territories that were Japanese upto second world war losing most of its Japanese inhabitants (South Sakhalin, Taiwan) to be unique; would like to read more on what happened of the Japanese who lived in South Sakhalin.
Keep up the good work and have a good weekend.
Thank you so much Anirudh. You raise a great point about the inhabitants. I actually wanted to talk about the Ainu, the original inhabitants of the islands. However, I just couldn’t make it work without going off on a detour or overly complicating matters. (Always a real problem.) But they really are the forgotten victims in all this.
Have a great weekend too!
I have heard a story about someone who was born in the Southern Sakhalin having problems getting married because they couldn't obtain their birth certificate. I don't remember the details, but imagine trying to contact the Soviet era bureaucracy for the birth record of someone of Japanese ancestry born in the turbulent times of the early 20th century as control of the island kept changing hands. I don't even remember where I heard the story from, let alone who the person was, so I don't know the outcome.
Actually, the issue of the coast of Siberia, the Kyriles, and Sakhalin is somewhat more complex. On Japanese maps at the beginning of the 1700s the
Islands including Sakhalin were all claimed by Japan as well as enclaves on the Siberian coast over the next 150 years Russia got most of them. The 1875 treaty was supposed to protect Hokkaido and the remainder of the Kyriles from Russia in exchange for all of Sakhalin. Much of Japan's actions in Manchuria and Northern China have some relationship to Russia's constant push southward. Ignored by most was a short and successful war that the Soviets had with the warlord in Manchuria in the late 1920s. Personally, I wonder how that might have impacted decisions in the area leading up to 1932s acts by Japan.
You can't say that the situation is unique, because Japan's allies suffered sumilar fates after WW2. Germans were expelled from Königsberg and the Sudetenland, and the Italians from Istria. I guess that losing a major war that you started must have some consequences.
@@Georgije2 Actually, you missed something in history. Japan was at peace with Russia until the Soviet attack in 1945. They had carried out a trade in strategic materials, and according to one source had people in Moscow trying to get help with more favorable peace terms. The Soviets had interned US aircraft and crews; their first strategic bomber post war was essentially a reversed engineered B-29 with some modification. Additionally a US submarine actually sank a Soviet freighter during the war after it left a Japanese port. The commander thought it was a Japanese freighter. So, while the Russians complained that the US and GB did fight enough in Europe their trade. With Japan helped Japan fight the US and Commonwealth in East Asia and the Pacific.
Good stuff. I learned a lot watching this.
Thanks so much. I’m really glad it helped. It is a fascinating situation, and yet it gets very little international attention.
Thank you very much, James. Your videos are an invaluable tool for learning more about international conflicts.
Thank you so much for the kind message. Always great to hear!
The main issue is that Japan doesn’t have an independent foreign policy unfortunately. They’re awesome folks, but stupid politicians
They've been an occupied state since WW2. If they try to separate from the US China will likely steamroll them.
It's their constitution basically. The US basically created Japan and Germany as weak puppets who are incapable of aggressively dealing with imperial powers.
So glad I found your channel James! Always answering the questions I'm often thinking about :)
Last month I jokingly said to my Japanese mate I wonder if Japan will reiterate their claim now that Russia are preoccupied, and here we are.
As you pretty much said, I can't see this escalating further, but quite a bold move by Japan nonetheless
Total bluff on Japan's part, and a foolish one no less.
@@soundmind9772 sure buddy
@@soundmind9772 if Japan gets foreign legionaries it will be Weeabos. .. the Weeabo foreign legion 51st.
@@chibiromano5631
BARILOCHE USHUAIA ICE HOCKEY
A R G E N T I N A
Very useful and informative. Thanks.
Learned a lot. Thank you.
Thank you!
I never knew the full story and was too lazy yo read bunch of history books on the issue.
Thank you for this video and for putting everything so clearly and chronologically!
Thanks so much! Really glad it served its purpose. :-)
You will do well not to rely on this video. It leaves out important matters such as Yalta and Potsdam. Without them what you are left with is a slanted and distorted view of history.
I learned so much in just 11 minutes it's crazy, despite being a huge weeb I had very little knowledge about the history of this conflict but now I know, thank you for the great content as always!
Thanks from Japan! Though I’m Japanese,This issue is difficult for me to understand too lol
Being a weeb doesn't make you privy to Japanese culture
This happens when a weeb only ever learns the anime rendering of Japan history, and nothing more.
Reading such comments bother me greatly.
Very comprehensive and accurate explanation.
Thank you.
Thank you for informative presentation
Given Russia's current performance in the Ukraine I have extreme skepticism that the non nuclear Russian forces could do anything to the Japanese defense force other than annoy it. . Japan has a well trained disciplined modern army, and, an Air Force that has modern equipment and adequate training time and one of the best navy's In the world in terms of equipment and training discipline. Any military action on Russia's part against the Japanese would be courting disaster
well realistically i believe japan has the most advanced military in the world currently, at the very least alongside Israel and the US. Japans military technology is entirely consisting of modern equipment and technological capability. Russia's is not...
The Japanese navy is the 3rd largest in the world, ahead of Russia and behind China and the US.
The Japanese airforces are also advanced and, while not more numerous, they are better maintained and more serviceable.
The Army itself is incredibly advanced with modern drone, AA, AT and Armoured capabilities on par with or more capable than any other nation. Though actual combat experience may be lacking... which is certainly something that does exist in almost every other Great Power (except China)
That’s because you’re listening to the propaganda of MSM and not using your brain. If Russia is struggling to defeat Ukraine then why are they desperately crying for help. The reality is Russia is not looking to destroy Ukraine because they could very well turn that country into a parking lot. Therefore the objective will naturally be a slow methodical process especially when you have practically the entire globe trying to assist you in various ways.
@@felixschrider9037 isreal is not a real country and no they don't have the best military. Neither does the US.
@@violetsrayreikishop2 Based
@@violetsrayreikishop2 Israeli Mossad is literally top notch and strikes any they want. Israeli Air Force dominates the Middle East. Israel bombs Iran and it’s puppets daily. USA literally demolished the Middle East and left with no one doing anything about it.
One question that hangs over the situation in Ukraine is why didn't the Russians send in more troops even they invaded. One of the reasons is that even though they have a large army, they also have a long border to defend. One of them being their long Pacific Ocean coastline in their far east. Even without an actual invasion from Japan, they are forcing the Russian military to divert attention and resources to the Kuril island and the far east instead of being able to concentrate on Ukraine.
I was wondering how much of am issue it would be and I am not surprised to see developments taking place.
Plus not all personnel is combat personnel.
Unfortunately for the Russians they have most of their tanks and infantry dying in Russia
Don't forget their disruption efforts in Moldova and Georgia, and their support for their Belorussian puppet. So Russia has a spread out, under-supported military against the SDF, which is only concerned with Japan, backed by the US, who WILL fight with Japan as per its obligations post-WWII.
Tokyo will get a nuke if they try
bruh they can't even supply what they sent, if they sent more their logistic issues would be even worse
@@jaclrossrick6327 Thank you for your ill informed and pointless comment
Great video, well explained.
Thank you so much.
Ty, very good summary of the situation. Remarkable work.
Thank you very much indeed! Really appreciated.
If tensions start to get high, it will be last necessary boost to Japan's remilitarization, the only reason it hasn't taken place at full speed is the public perception.
A belligerent Russia that just alarmed the world with the invasion of Ukraine would shock the japanese public enough for the politicians to start acting faster.
Japan has already been re-militarizing. Japan has the 5th highest national defense budget in the world. They've been spending money on their military!
80.000.000 ARGENTINIANS MINIMUM
WELCOME TO ARGENTINA
@@DJ80s Military budget doesn't always convert to actually military strength.
What do you think is the future of Kaliningrad Oblast?
Great question Eugene. I certainly don’t think there will be any challenge from outside. But one does sometimes wonder what will happen if it ever decides it would like to break away and join the EU. Can’t see it happening at the moment. But it is a fascinating ‘what if’.
A very useful, interesting and important lesson well presented and superbly analysed.
Great video. Thanks for sharing. 💯
The "mounting pressure" from the allies for the USSR to declare war on Japan... There was no "mounting pressure" at that point. It had already been agreed upon at the Yalta conference that the USSR was to declare war on Japan within 3 months following Germany's capitulation. Stalin did not want to fight a 2-front war and it would take time for the Soviet troops to be redeployed from Europe all the way to the east of Russia. So, the timing had less to do with the US dropping nukes on Hiroshima/Nagasaki and more with logistical issues.
The Yalta agreement also bluntly stated, “The Kuril Islands shall be handed over to the Soviet Union.” It is often overlooked that the US provided the ships for the Soviet troop's amphibious landing on these islands and this was after Japan had already capitulated. It wasn't until some years later during the Cold War that the US started supporting Japan's position.
@@HouseOfHam >It is often overlooked that the US provided the ships for the Soviet troop's amphibious landing on these islands
As a Japanese national, I`m astonished to learn this.
I love this as Japanese. News has been all over the place about Kurils here in Japan. I have a question, how likely is it that my country would be able to turn away from pacifism right now? I believe that recently Japanese people are more open about remilitarization, but the old men and women still dislike the idea. Keep pumping out these kinds of content, I love your content professor!
Probably depends more on Japanese internal politics than anything else. The countries that might have an issue with it and be important enough to impact Japanese debate are probably only the US, SK (and their impact on the US) and China.
Turning away from pacifism would be a fatal mistake.
@@soundmind9772 a fatal mistake is to do nothing while your enemies get more aggressive
@@muhammaduddin5884 conflating pacifism with doing nothing is also a mistake. For example, a pacifist may choose not to rescue an enemy in need. There are countless ways to retaliate nonviolently.
@@muhammaduddin5884 Russia doesn’t seem to be capable of fighting wars in the pacific end at its current state.
THX for the idea bro, we'll consider it =)
Acabo de encontrar tu canal y déjame decirte que es increíble. Ahora no me perderé ni uno de tus videos.
"Treaty of Portsmouth" happened in my hometown of Portsmouth, NH, it actually happened in the Island town of New Castle in Portsmouth Harbor at the Wentworth Hotel(today it's called Wentworth by the sea), but New Castle is more a villiage of Portsmouth anyway.
Yes. I should have emphasised Portsmouth United States not Portsmouth United Kingdom!
Thank you for this concise analysis, James. One question: does Japan in fact have a military force that could be used to occupy the Kurils? Doesn't the Japanese constitution define the Self-Defence Forces exclusively as a defensive force? Or would this not count as an offensive operation, simply because the territory is regarded as Japanese by law?
Q. does Japan in fact have a military force that could be used to occupy the Kurils?
Although theoretically possible, most of the naval forces required for landing operations are allocated to defense against invasion from China and the both South and North Korea, and most of the land in the north of Japan are protected by respond defensively to Russian (Soviet) military land invasion, so surprise raid cannot happen. The U.S. has also stated that they will not, in principle, defend territories not under Japan's control, so it can be said that the answer is actually no.
Q. Doesn't the Japanese constitution define the Self-Defence Forces exclusively as a defensive force?
In the first place, there is no provision in the Constitution for the Self-Defense Forces.
The article 9 that prohibits war, the threat of force, and the use of force as a means of settling international disputes. Japan's Self-Defense Forces are in a very ambiguous position under the Constitution, and there are certain politicians who deny their very existence. Many people believe that war is not permissible at any cost, and if the foreign military comes, there is no problem as long as they stay quiet and let's have a drink together. And even in the case of the Ukraine issue, TVs and other medias have criticized Ukraine's resistance. The use of weapons is a very sensitive issue.
The current interpretation is limited to the purpose of "maintaining peace" or "protecting the people and the country from danger (such as disasters and serious attacks)" rather than "settling international disputes". Hence, To answer your question "Or would this not count as an offensive operation, simply because the territory is regarded as Japanese by law?", there is no action that the JSDF can take against islands that are already under Russian control, where "serious attacks" does not exist now.
Sorry for my poor English, but this is the current situation. Perhaps this may change if the Constitution is changed in the future, but the "Anything war is bad" sentiment among the Japanese is so strong that I do not expect any drastic change.
@@user-uk8nf8jv6u thanks for your reply, I was interested in reading answers to these questions. Love Japan from România 🇯🇵🇹🇩
@@user-uk8nf8jv6u but Japan also has an extremely strong nationalist wing as well, wouldn’t they not fit into this description? Like despite his toned down rhetoric over the Kurils, I can’t imagine Shinzo Abe, for example, “having a drink with the foreign invaders” and having Japan’s highly developed defense forces lay down their arms…
Yes Japan has an army.
Yes it is modern, 5th gen.
No Russian can't compete with Japan.
Russia is struggling with Ukraine, there is no way they can tackle Japan.
If Japan really tried, they could take the islands.
@@mikeshoults4155 Except for that pesky nuclear bomb problem
I don't know what it is but I freaking love your videos. You are the nerd I aspire to be! 😂 Outstanding job of filing in the blanks on a top of topics.
Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻
This is fascinating and timely. I had already wondered whether one way the west could respond to a ‘one off’/demonstration use by Russia of a tactical nuclear weapon in Eastern Europe, without further breaking the post-1945 taboo on actual weapons use, was to threaten those four Kuril Islands. As James says, probably unlikely Japan would sanction such a move, but just imagine if you will Putin rushing all those forces he just redeployed from the east …all the way straight back again.
"Although the USSR and Japan signed a Neutrality Pact in 1941, as the war in the Far East drew ended in August 1945, Moscow invaded South Sakhalin and the entire the Kuril Islands chain." Very surprised you choose to not just say directly that Japan was an axis power in WWII, along with other facist countries like Italy and Germany.
so? ussr was at war with germany, not japan
but we have the democracy now in Japan meanwhile in Russia...
I think we should all know they were since Japan's famous for being the single country in the world to be hit by a weaponized nuke. Russia was pretty cozy with nazi Germany uo until the betrayal though and Germany would have fallen within a month if it wasn't for Russia fortifying its border
It's also important to mention that USSR was actually fascist and only on paper communist. Communism stands for a stateless society where all are equal. No one is rich or poor in a communist system which wasnt the case for USSR, some enjoyed more privileges than others.
On the other hand, Fascism pertains to state and it considers state on top of everything. In fascism the state is all embracing. For the fascists, no human values exist outside the state. Fascism believes that everything is within the State and nothing is above the State or outside the State or against the State. Fascism believes in nationalism(=russification), corporatism (includes economic planning), militarism and totalitarianism (dictatorship and social interventionism)= this was real USSR.
@Jason W. Very surprised you didn't say that the USSR was an Axis Power in WWII from 1939-41.
A good, balanced and informative analysis, which puts your Cyprus ones in the deep shade!
Thank you William. I will take it for the barbed praise that it is. :-) As for Cyprus, I know you seem to think that I am hopelessly biased. But perhaps you can tell that to all the irate Turkish Cypriot nationalists commenting on my last Cyprus Q&A.
really good summary of a complex issue
5:20 Truman requested Stalins help with an Invasion into Japanese controlled territory, the Prof did miss to mention that.
Yes indeed, the US supported the USSR with the "transferred" of more than +100 warships in early 1945.
Project Hula!
4:44 - To note, the Soviet declaration of war was mostly due to an agreement the soviets and the UK/US had come to in February of 45' at the Yalta Conference
, the Soviets had agreed to enter the war against the Empire of Japan "in two or three months after Germany has surrendered and the war in Europe is terminated.", in exchange for the US agreeing to soviet interests in Manchuria (eg the Soviet lease of Port Arthur), US recognition of Mongolian independence from China and the cession of South Sakhalin, and Kuril Islands to the USSR iirc.
The Soviets joined on the last possible day in this agreement, 3 months to the day after the formal surrender of Germany on May 8th.
The point being that the United States and Russia are allies and Japan is their common enemy.
100% Quality information very clear and complete and professional
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it.
Thank you for your time and effort to inform us. As a master student of political science and diplomacy ı have found your page very useful to be aware of current issues as well as historical backgrounds. Hope to see and learn more. Thanks
Не хотелось бы воевать с Японией, у них есть старшекласники управляющие Огромными Боевыми Человекоподобными Роботами
but putin don't care , they send jet to Finland and Japan to warning
Hhhhhhh
Great video about a topic not many, including myself, are aware of. I saw another video recently highlighting Russia's historical cycle of humiliation, revolution, & reconstruction. Is there any merit to this observation? One can only hope that people under direct threat from the Putin regime, Russian citizens included, can gain some relief sometime soon
Thank you so much. It really is interesting how little known the Kuril Islands issue is. But what I find so interesting is just how opportunistic the USSR was in 1945. As for the wider argument about Russia, it is certainly a fascinating and complex country. But I think we tend to forget that it is really a colonial empire that m, unlike the other European empires, never decolonised.
@@JamesKerLindsay I think it is overlooked because Russia didn't have (much of) an overseas colonial empire, but one directly on its borders that was just incorporated into the main state.
@@JamesKerLindsay pot, kettle, black
@@JamesKerLindsay Great video! I'd say that after Japan's defeat the USSR was no less opportunistic than the US and the UK, and especially the Republic of China. Also no less opportunistic than the US has been in negotiating their own one-sided treaties with formerly occupied territories all throughout the Pacific such as with Tuvalu, Kiribati, Tokelau, Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, etc. Russia has the political will and the capacity to negotiate a final settlement with Japan that will ensure that Russia's legitimate security interests are addressed to Russia's satisfaction prior to relinquishing what amounts to be the right of possession (uti possidetis) via effective occupation of territory at the end of a war in the absence of legal title (like Hawaii after the Spanish American War for example). If Japan doesn't wake up to reality and settle the territorial dispute as soon as possible, then Russia may simply decide to exercise its sovereign right to recognize the independence of the disputed area as a sovereign state and simply enter into diplomatic negotiations with the newly independent government to Russia's advantage. An even more interesting idea would be for Russia to insist on the liberation of Lew Chew (Ryukyu Kingdom aka Okinawa - purportedly annexed by Japan but merely occupied since 1879 without a treaty or even a war) as a condition of relinquishing Russian claims over the disputed Kuril areas. Such an agreement by Japan to liberate Lew Chew would place the United States in the awkward position of having to either withdraw its military from Okinawa, or at the very least, SHARE the area with Russia and/or China. I think we can assume that Japan's foolish pride will continue to perpetuate and escalate the Kuril conflict until a very awkward "checkmate" resolution is inevitable (as the world has painfully witnessed before). Indeed Japan has lived in a glass house since 1945 and now is not the time to throw stones but rather to make peace.
@@soundmind9772 brilliant post
Thank you so much. 👍
Thank you. I hope you found it useful.
Dear professor, your explanation was very helpful. I am a historian myself (State University of Groningen, one of the oldest universities in the Netherlands -1614). Moluccan Melanesian, but born and living in the Netherlands.
I am very interested in international relations in general and particularly in the geopolitical aspects, the Indo-Pacific and Indonesia (the elephant in the room).
As a Moluccan Melanesian, I try to follow the rapid and worrying developments in the region in order to better understand our own position in this arena, for I think to see it is not a question anymore whether China will start a war, but when.
More backgroundinformation in relation to Indonesia and the Moluccas can be found in dr. Noelle Higgins’ dissertation:
Regulating the Use of Force in Wars of National Liberation: The Need for a New Regime. A Study of the South Moluccas and Aceh
Series: International Humanitarian Law Series, Volume: 28. Author: Noelle Higgins. Dublin State University
Biographical Note
Noelle Higgins, Ph.D. (2007) in Law, Irish Centre for Human Rights, NUI, Galway, is a lecturer in international law in Dublin City University. Her research focuses on the use of force and she has published various articles in this area.
book: brill.com/view/title/16332
Very well crafted, fact-pact narrative.
Good work. I like your series. Efficient and useful. Handsomely presented.
While Japan won't invade the Kurils, I can see Japan refusing to remove its sanctions on Russia until an official peace treaty is signed, and refusing to sign a peace treaty that doesn't give it control of the islands. Basically, removing sanctions in exchange for the islands.
Russians never agree to exchange islands to removing sanctions. Never.
Removing sanctions in exchange for land is dangerous. If that happens, what stops USA from unilaterally sanctioning Canada, kicks it from swift and demands a land corridor to connect mainland USA to Alaska in exchange for lifting sanctions?
@@1mol831 What stops US from nuking Canada into submission?
@@1mol831 Well what stops the USA from doing that now? Canada's military strength? Regardless the US doesn't need to do that since Canada isn't a threat and is allied to the US, and the US has all the land and resources it could ever need.
@@1mol831 economic interdependence, a two highly connected populations, vast unpopularity with the rest of the world. If the USA wanted it could easily take control of Canada by force, but this wouldn't help anyone and would lead to a change in power from the party that attacked. In an increasingly interconneced world, much of warfare is going to be economic. Ukraine will provide a test for how this will work, but gold has more value than steel.
I don't think Russia has the military or finances to support any new conflict at this minute and probably won't for a while.
Its aiming for a actual New World Order, with China as its head and Russia as its second and India as its "third". It's a very real possibility it can happen and if it does all our economys will freak out while Russias would stabilize and it would be able to fund invasions at 10x the scale, but we won't know anything until India declares what it's going to do
Вряд-ли стоит проверять. Путин на конференции во Франции до войны и в день проведения всех запугал ядерным ответом в случае вмешательства. Думаю тормоз никто не даст в случае возникновения других военных конфликтов с Россией
Great video as always👍. Is there anyway you could do a video on the current situation of ethiopia🇪🇹. A ceasefire was just announced by ethiopian government. Maybe u Could talk about whether this will lead to a full end to the war or whether it's an empty promise.
Thanks
Unlikely but if russia were to take the economic option in exchange for the islands now would be the time lifting the sanctions and japan investing in russia for the islands would be a good deal but i don’t think the russian public would be happy with giving up land
Russia will do it if Japan de-occupies Okinawa
Investing in Russia is a mugs game going forward.
Let’s say USA is sanctioned and Canada demands USA give up Alaska to life sanctions, would they do it?
Japan's best bet would be Russia just selling them the islands. I doubt they'll get the islands any other way.
The Russian public will give up everything for a peace of bread in the future.
From our(russian) perspective
We joined war against Japan, cause of Yalta conference, where leaders of USA, GB, USSR have agreed that in exchange of joining war against Japan not later than 3 month after Germany surrender, Soviet Union would be granted a sphere of influence in Manchurian, Port-Arthur and Kuril islands. Thats our perspective, but the japanesd are sneaky they said that souther islands are actually part of japanese islands chain and they are not kurils. Soviet Union durinh Khruschev offered 4 kuril islands in exchange of japanese neutrality, but USA said to japanese government that if they agree to that they will never receive back ryuku islands.
nice note in the frame! is it UNC?
Thanks. :-) Not sure. It may well be. It’s a WWI One Pound note signed by my great grandfather, John Bradbury, who was Permanent Secretary of the Treasury at the time.
@@JamesKerLindsay awesome! I just talked to Bradbury's grandson! :)
Thank You. Informative! ... I have decided to SUBSCRIBE ... before the World ENDS !!!
To me this is a "good news/bad news" situation. The good news is that Professors like our friend Ker-Lindsay now have increased visibility and relevance in this moment, and their insights may tip-off the best among us.
The bad news is that such increased visibility may only be actuated by "trained professionals" who just so happen to come with very pro-Russian leanings. While my friend Ker-Lindsay appears to be innocent enough, he has stumbled into an arena where his name is already being used fraudulently, his image is being used fraudulently, and his entire position is perhaps being manipulated for the gains of the enemy...
80.000.000 ARGENTINIANS MINIMUM
WELCOME TO ARGENTINA
Japan can try to buy the island for a generous sum can that work ?
It might well come to that!
Seems more likely than war.
@@JamesKerLindsay Yes, the generous sum will be liberation of Okinawa
@@shane_rm1025 Как русский скажу что у наших патриотов очень развит территориальный комплекс, так что вероятность отдачи, продажи территории стремится к нулю.
Fascinating history.
Yes, it certainly is.
Thanks for the truth
japan could do a special military operation on those islands,no war or invasion,just special military operation
They don’t have that capability they’ll be nuke again
@@thomasreagan7465 japan could send little white men and let the islanders vote if they want to join japan or stai russian.
Why would russia nuke japan? Nukes are only used if you get nuked first,japan doesent have nukes
@@UnipornFrumm apparently you never been to Kuril Islands..., they are +20000 peoples living on those islands today & less than 500 are Kuril Ainu. Ok let play the voting games...
@@jonduong8331 there are probaly about 1 milion people in western donbass most are russian spekers but probably most do not want to live in russia after what russia did to them,you know for educated people living in the european union its not a bad thing
@@UnipornFrumm Back to Kuril islands...BTW, the peoples from Kuril Islands did vote to stay with Russia in 2010, that when President Dmitry Medvedev came to visited.
Japan will not invade, but as you have rightly pointed out, it will try to use this opportunity of Russian vulnerability to press the issue. No matter the outcome of the war, the sanctions push Russia to its weakest position in the last 2 decades, arguably. Thus, Japan will be in a good position.
Trade and cooperation between the two nations have never been strong, but if Russia reliably wants to strengthen economic activity in its Far East and develop the region then Japan is a partner it strongly needs. I do see Russia having to make some concessions then perhaps.
Japan is capable of invading, but they would be seen as an aggressor if they invade Russia, just like how Russia is seen right now. Some countries might be forced to sanction Japan if they do so.
@@1mol831 I think it depends. Firstly, with being the 3rd largest economy, Japan is much harder to sanction for many states. And second, a case can be made for Japan basically having a rightful claim to these territories.
This then begs the question whether Japan could or could not do something militarily, since its constitution restricts it to defensive actions only.
@@photon1899 China could claim to protect Russia from Japanese aggression if they decide to take Kuril Islands, it would be difficult for USA to politically join such a war, as Japan would be the aggressor in this case and USA would be joining an aggressive war.
The UN treaty to end the war said Japan had to give up the Kuril islands. Those islands off Hokkaido are part of the Kuril islands even though Japan called them the Northern territories. A good example would be the Florida keys. A chain of islands that goes North from Key Largo to Key west. About 113 km. (70 miles) West from the southern most Florida island of Key West, the chain is broken until your arrive at the Dry Tortugas which are considered part of the Florida keys.
@@ab9840 Can a state adhere to right, title or claim to a territory without signing the treaty?
Great video! I wonder if there is a typo @ 2:01 ? Is then GDP numbers PPP? In that case Russia is at $27,903, and otherwise $10,230.
Hi, this Raymond Larety, i am a fun of your Podcasts, is it a way that you could advice me as to how i could read Political Science as it has been my all my life. thank you and waiting for your reply.
Hi Raymond, thanks for the comment. It’s a little hard to know where to begin. It depends what you want you do, and what you want to do with it. Are you talking about studying a formal course? Or are you looking to just read up on politics without following a particular programme. And do you want to do it for your own interest, or do you want to follow a career on the field. So much depends on these questions. If it is for yourself and for interest, I’d just say that it is important to follow political developments in your particular field of interest and look out for some introductory textbooks in that area.
Dear Prof. Once again congrats for this insightful analysis and this awesome episode.
To my humble opinion as Prof. MEARSHEIMER says: " In international relations and politics, MIGHT MAKES RIGHT. "
I think that if you analyse with a bird eye overview President Putin"s Foreign Policy which is in the continuity of the former USSR and before that the Russian Empire of the Czars, this axiom has become a Public Policy that is constititionalized by Russia.
This Axiom is used for the kuril Islands and the southern Sakhalin to become a de facto henceforth de jure integral parts of the Russian territory.
We must be careful because of the wheel of history. History repeats itself.
The long discourse between Russian and Japan from the Shimonoseki, Shimoda, Saint Petersburg treaties, the Portsmouth treaty after the russo-japanese war, the neutrality treaty in 1941 before the Russian invasion of these disputed islands at the end of WWII, the 1956 peace declaration, the formal declaration after Shinzo Abe meeting in 2016 with Vladimir Putin until 2018 and the Russian territory clause in its constitutionnal amendment of 2020 prove clearly that the long discourse or debate of almost two centuries have proved futile.
That is why the whole world must be very careful of this new territorial disputes and forceful occupations not only the case of the Kuril/Sakhalin islands but in a global perspective such as the current Russia/Ukraine War.
The U.N and other International Organisations have failed in their core mandate which is enshrined in its charter to preserve peace and security through peaceful settlement of international disputes like the League of Nations failed before the second World War.
These new territorial disputes and forceful grab are reminding us unfortunately alas of Mandchuria, Anschluss, Sudetenland, Danzig corridor, Abyssinia which occurred before the beginning of the second World War.
The World leadership must wake up quickly after the major turning point in the international order and relations of the February 24th 2022 when Russia made the move to occupy Ukraine by preventing a major crisis perhaps a nuclear conflagration by solving with wisdom, equity and Justice these territorial disputes which bear the bad seeds of War.
Thank you Sir.
80.000.000 ARGENTINIANS MINIMUM
WELCOME TO ARGENTINA
I'm kind of on the Russian side here... Sorry, but I am German and the way Japan handles its horrendous past (aka they ignore it) I don't see why they should get the Islands back. You don't see Germans ask for eastprussia back either.
Yea well if you look at other examples such as Turkey, they deny their past as well (which was much worse than Japan's) but were allowed to regain their lands. Also East Prussia is sort of different. It was inhabited by Baltic peoples prior to Germans. Germans were not native to East Prussia.
@@g1u2y345 Id argue turkey isn't really a great example for anything these days.
@@g1u2y345 What lands did Turkey "regain"? And Turkey's past being past much worse than Japan? Lmao
@@ClydeShadow6 Yes Turkey's past was worse than Japan's. Armenian genocide? It also included Assyrians and Pontic Greeks. There's also the countless massacres of minorities such as in 1955 and 1978
@@g1u2y345 not to mention the Ottoman Empire as well that went on for centuries. Compared to the Japanese Empire which lasted less than 100 years
Thank u again for another masterpiece. It's always a delight to see your unbiased explanation of world affairs. Please I would like to ask if you have done the Yemen issue because I feel like the world does not seem to care about the famine and war there. If you have already done it please send me a link. Thank you.
Thank you. I have done a video on Yemen. It was a while back. th-cam.com/video/UdWWm8tBUps/w-d-xo.html I really should revisit it. It is a truly horrific situation.
Tank you for video. I wanna remind that Yeltsin, on 1993-1998 time interval, agreed to give 4 islands to Japan. It was a big achievement for Japan and step by step the time is going on for the sake of Japan
Japan’s reasoning:
1. The 4 islands were never Russian controlled, until after the war.
2. It was USSR which broke the Japan- USSR treaty and declared war on Japan, without Japan exercising any aggression to the USSR beforehand.
3. The USSR only invaded / controlled the 4 islands on the day when the Japan delegation went to the Tokyo Bay surrender ceremony.
The USSR’s reasoning:
WINNER’S JUSTICE.
Thanks. Beautifully summarised. :-) I have to say that it comes across as one of the most opportunistic land grabs in modern history!
Yup... it saddens me all the time to see a lot of people taking the “victor’s justice” side and continually bashing Japan
@@JamesKerLindsay Like Israel, Taiwan, Goa, Hawaii, West Papua, or even Western Sahara? States have no honor whatsoever.
I'm no fan of Russia's historical land grabs, but the summary is misleading. Russia "never" had control of Kuril islands? Untrue. It once had it of the up two islands, but exchanged for southern Sakhlin. The 1905 war caused the changing hands of some islands and territories. Also Winner's Justice. Japan had been an invador across Asia before USSR declaring war on it.
@@PeterXiao1 if you read carefully, you would notice that I never said the whole Kuril Island chain. I only mentioned the 4 islands which were not controlled by Russia until 45.
Japan had defeated the Russian before and then the Soviet taken there revenge time for round three lol
*round four
The Soviets defeated Japan twice. Once in 1939 and again in 1945.
@@imgvillasrc1608 1945? The fact that the Japanese invaded after breaking the non-aggression and struggled against the Japanese security forces right after the defeat?
With the bust of Lenin in one of the Kuril Islands, this could be the perfect hideout for members of the JCP had Japan's so-called "Northern Territories" return to Tokyo's hands.
Why do people in some government positions care so much about an age old border dispute?
As a Japanese, it was good to watch your video.
As for this problem, Japan is one party and we rarely know opinions from third party.
Thank you!!
Thank you so much. What is the feeling in Japan about all this now?
Thanks for such an extremely informative video on a subject that is generally overlooked. My only snide comments are whether Russia's activities and Syria, as well as its successful demonstration of Sarmat are really evidence of "Russia's obviously weakened military..." and the assumption that "the calamitous effects on (its) economy will create the "need" rebuild its ties to many western countries..
So far, Russia's forced isolation from the west by imposition of drastic sanctions has in every case served to ultimately strengthen its self-sufficiency. Russia is so vast and so rich in diverse resources that self-sufficiency is possible, and with its China alliance, not even problematic.
Of course, natural normal foreign trade will develop , but at the convenience of China and Russia--not of forced economic necessity.
yes please!
Does this mean that WW2 is not officially over?
Sometimes, things may change dramatically over a short period of time like was the case when USSR disintegrated and the whole communist bloc ceased to exist within 3-4 years. We'll see what happens in the next 5-10 years, I think anything is possible.
This time it's the US going down like UK.
Another history is on the making.
@@loktom4068 Actually, US has been going down for the last 20 years or so but not collapsing while China has risen as the world’s mightiest economic power. American military superiority is definitely still there, though politically there is a lot of questions to its ability to form a strong foreign policy which serves its real national interests.
The idea that modern Japan would attack Russia militarily is utterly insane, but if anything insane is to happen 2022 is the time for it.
Japan`s declaration of war against Russia in order to regain the Kurile Islands is preposterous. But the collapse of the Russian economy would enable Japan to have the upperhand over Russia for the solution of the territorial dispute.
@@MrEjidorie if things happen as you said than entire Japan would be nothing but nuclear waste
@@akashpatel8410 If Japan go to war against Russia, Japan could be nuked in a worst scenario. So Japan would never use a military option. Japan will take advantage of the economic bankruptcy of Russia to take the Kurile Islands back quite peacefully.
@@MrEjidorie but do you really think Russia will just stand and watch Russia will launch first attack
@@MrEjidorie plz don't get offended it's my personal opinion but I don't think people of Japan currently has will to face and fight a war
What about Kaliningrad being Königsberg again and Lvov returning to Poland?
Thanks. Kaliningrad is a fascinating question. I should really do a video on this.
Love your analysis sir.
🇵🇰❤️
Thank you so much! Very best wishes from Romania 🇷🇴 (where I am currently visiting).
It’d be interesting to see what the “sharing” agreement of Sakhalin Island was. I know it’s more complicated than this, but it’s crazy that two huge countries couldn’t just figure out a way to share the resources in the area. Form some kind of board or panel to split the drilling leases and have some shared management over the fisheries.
Russia seems to have problems with almost all its neighbours.
Land grabs annoy.
"but it’s crazy that two huge countries couldn’t just figure out a way to share the resources in the area."
No it isn't. Both sides want the whole island.
They didn't want to.
The Russians had come up with a solution. The Japanese agreed with the solution, signed the treaty but then started a war because they wanted more. There was a chance to get the northern islands as per the 1956 document but without a guarantee that islands would be off limits to US military they are never going to be returned.
It’s simple. Russia doesn’t really “share” or honor their agreements.
Good video professor! In my geo-strategist pipe dream, Japan and my current resident Korea would resolve their differences on the Liancourt Rocks (Dokdo Island in Korea, Takeshima Island in Japan) leaving them uncontestedly with Korea in exchange for Korea’s economic, diplomatic, and naval support in regaining the Kuril Islands.
Probably won't happen. Korea doesn't have anything to offer.
It was Japan 🗾 the original aggressor at WWll.
Their expansion towards EAST and West.
Don't forget about Pearl Harbor.
Not vice versa.
This professor is UK and US based.
Didn't you know it was mostly the British empire and the forgotten European land grab expansion started in the EAST.
They literally left their aggression footprints all over ASIA and the New World called North and South America.
After WWII it was USA seeking to expand.
Why don't the cowboys leave Japan after the war after all those decades?
Instead using it as the next spring board of expansion towards ASIA.
DON'T FORGET about North and South America.
What happened to the indigenous American people once were abundant living there were all replaced by Victorian gene pools, other European and forced African slaves.
Go figure that.
This professor is no angel.
Утро доброе ясное Вам Благодарность 🙏 Правильно Давно пора время пришло Слава природе!
good content but sth went wrong with the voice recording :/
Thanks so much. I think the problem might be at your end. No one else has reported any issues. I also checked it and found no problems. It sometimes seems to happen with TH-cam.
Should a future Russian government have a Damascene conversion to a more post-WW2 West German approach to the past, that would be the best hope for a final peace over these islands.
Wasn't that the old aniu people's territories? Sort of like Japanese but slightly different culture?
Thanks. I really wanted to talk a little about the Ainu. However, it was just really difficult to fit it in without confusing the story.
How can the Ainu be slightly different from the Japanese?? The Ainu are a subset within the greater Jomon Set. The Japanese are the product of the Jomon & the Yayoi, an admixture of these 2 major ethnicities (or the area within which the Jomon Set intermingles with the Yayoi Set).
I agree that the Ainu should have their own country which is independent from Russia and Japan whose countries start from Hokkaido to Sakhalin
Thanks. The Ainu really are the forgotten part of this whole story!
They are less than 100k Ainu in the world left.
They unfortunately don't number much. They'd be outnumbered by Russians and Japanese.
Japan has also territorial disputes with China in the south. Any military action taken could also lead to worsening relations with China
islands that belonged to Japan, then the US after WW2 until the US gave it back to Japan in 1971, and then China made claims to them in 1972. China's got territorial disputes with pretty much all of its neighbors.
Japan´d SUPPORT (economically, military bases, politically, etc. ) all Siberian pro - independent actors in Siberia and Outer Manchuria : Green Ukraine, Sakha, Ural Republics , Chukcha state, etc.
I think it is Japans way to aid the Ukraine. It will bind russian troops in the east. There is a claim for the Kuriles though. Not about people, more about fishing grounds.
Sir, you are exactly right! we all are on the same boat to help people!
Russians will not be so keen to go Waltzing Matilda ever again. Chinese, ditto.
Me, a russian in japan: *chuckles* "I'm in danger"
I think you all miss a point:
In February 1945 the Yalta Agreement promised to the Soviet Union South Sakhalin and the Kuril islands in return for entering the Pacific War against the Japanese during World War II. In August 1945 the Soviet Union mounted an armed invasion of South Sakhalin at the cost of over 5,000 Soviet and Japanese lives.
no point was missed, it was merely deliberately ommitted.
Ya, he did state that Russia militarily took over South Sakhalin and then also the Kuril Islands, and you're correct, he didn't mention that Truman agreed that the Soviets can claim them during the Yalta Agreement. However, I do think the 1956 peace declaration is the more recent precedent that both sides agreed to recently and the both agreed that the discussions should consider that declaration as the building off point, not the Yalta Agreement. And in that declaration, both sides agreed that the "Northern Territories" were still unsettled but would be discussed peacefully.
@@ericksonjustinAK Most recent treaty is Treaty of San Francisco, 1951. Article 2 (c) says "Japan renounces all right, title and claim to the Kurile Islands, and to that portion of Sakhalin and the islands adjacent to it over which Japan acquired sovereignty as a consequence of the Treaty of Portsmouth of September 5, 1905." It was signed by Japan, the US, the UK, Australia, etc.
As a Japanese, this analysis is 99% accurate.
More problem is many people don't wake up from the illusion "US will help us just in case. " My answer is no. Nobody will come to help.
If a country can swallow it's pride and simply ask with humility then help will arrive. Be prepared to beg and you shall receive.
We saw from Ukraine how anyone will scramble to provide some form of aid if you're opposing the Russians.
Man, it really is the Cold War all over again...
Japan must wake up. Japan and America should be equal allies.
But aren't Japan and USA military allies? By that it's duty bound to help incase of an attack.
@@xAvitaLT Yes, I agree.
However, I still believe that Japan should have an army.
If Japan were to be invaded and the invading army took complete control of Japan before the main U.S. army arrived, it would be difficult to retake the country.
In addition, the creation of an army through the revision of Article 9 of the Constitution will lead the Japanese people to believe that they can protect their country by themselves.
This is the same difference in public awareness between the annexation of Crimea and the current war in Ukraine.
Isn’t there some sort of mutual defense treaty between Japan and the US?
Yes there under a nuclear umbrella on top of that it is bound by law to defend Japan basically it means and attack on Japan is basically an attack on United States it’s the same way with South Korea Australia, New Zealand and I think the Philippines
I don't understand the point of being a member of non nuclear treaty. What are the benefits?
Japan will have to wait decades until (and if) the Russian Federation breaks up , especially east of the Urals
Japan has the ability to seize the kurils and Sakhalin today if they want. Russia wouldn't be able to react in time to prevent their capture and wouldn't be able to divide their forces without losing on both fronts.
@@CedarHunt Russia has some subs with nuclear torpedoes, you know...
@@Worselol same with the US. the thing is Japan is not an aggressive pariah so its not going to attack anyone. Japan's focus is preventing loss of territory by an increasingly aggressive China anyways.
@@salmonjason4470 the US has nothing to do with this. Russian powered nuclear subs would strike Japan if they invade the islands.
@@Masquerade456 The US has everything to do with this. The Russians dont want the US to build bases in those territories once its rightfully returned to Japan (or at least that the excuse they were making all these years). So we have a US-JP security alliance with the Japanese and the Japanese self defense force was formed after ww2 and trains regularly with the US Pacific fleet on a regular basis and is quite integrated with our Pacific fleet and we have dozens of military bases in Japan. It serves as our unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Asia-Pacific region from a military/security perspective and marks our commitment to security for our Japanese and South Korean partners. Anyways, regarding your use the term "invading" in terms of which country has the moral high ground, just so you know, Japan self defense force has not invaded any territories or killed a single foreign person in over 70 years. Russians on the other hand sure has committed a ton of atrocities over the decades with a lot of invading, killing, and dying for stupid causes despite having the largest amount of territory and natural resources out of all countries in the world. Japan chose to invest in its people and industry through smart diplomacy, hard work, and innovation, and what do you know, Japan has a much larger GDP/GDP per capita/ and GDP per capita purchasing power parity than Russia by a large margin. The Japanese, Koreans, and the Chinese all got a much higher average IQ than Russians so it's not surprising.
Good video James! I don't think that the war here is even possible. Japan cannot afford to go in war against Russia. Russia is focused on Ukraine and it would take looong time to transport all the units there. On the other hand Japan has China and N.Korea to worry about. One more thing that is very important, while Russia is trying not to kill civilians in Ukraine as it would spark massive protests in Russia, i don't think that they would worry about japanise people as much. Japan has a lot to lose here since it is densely populated while asian part of Russia is deserted nothingness.
Thanks so much, Nikola. I agree. I think the real question is more whether they can reach some sort of settlement after the conflict in Ukraine is over. It’s hard to tell. So much depends on what happens in the next few months.
I hope all else is well at your end.
How is destroying Mariupol "not kill[ing] civilians in Ukraine"?
Yea Russia os definitely not bombing children and pregnant mothers because “domestic unrest", 100% correct info, source:dude, trust me
@@thomasearlfranklin584 Where did i say that russians are not killing civilians? This is a common liberal argument that you are doing here. Putting words into my mouth so that your text can make any sense. You need to read carefuly what i write and what he agrees on. If you take a look at past Russian wars, you will see civilian deaths in hundreds of thousands even millions which is not the case in Ukraine. This does not mean that I support Russia, i strongly condemn it for warcrimes that it is commiting. But do i need to pretend that something is happening just so i don't hurt some liberal feelings? I don't think so, if speaking my mind in free world means that im gonna hurt liberal feelings, than your feelings will be hurt because i'm not going to be a liberal media puppet agreer
@@NikolaHD I’m sorry. You clearly said “Russia is trying not to kill civilians in Ukraine”.
Yet, Russians have killed thousands, practically obliterated Mariupol, attacked hospitals, homes, etc.
You can speak your mind but don’t start spreading propaganda. I like to discuss the facts and the facts are evident in Ukraine.
This happening on the backdrop of Poland's statements about Kaliningrad, I'm getting the impression that the whole point of both actions is to keep pressure on Russia not to transfer troops from both those to Ukraine.
Its not Poland as a whole its a former general. His opinion raises heads because he was a former general. But that is all. Does not mean much.
@@sebasnow777 thanks for the clarification , wasn't familliar with the man. Result will be the same though, I hope.
This world needs to start getting along with each other