Ray Kurzweil @ SuperNova Conference 2018
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ต.ค. 2024
- Ray Kurzweil is one of the world’s leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists, with a thirty-year track record of accurate predictions.
This is his keynote presentation at the SuperNova Conference on September 28th 2018.
SuperNova is a one-of-a-kind event where visionary solutions, technologies and insights come together. Where game-changers and businesses of tomorrow meet and entrepreneurs, professionals and creatives connect to get inspired and empowered.
Because tomorrow is unstoppable.
Something that doesn't change exponentially: Ray Kurzweil's speeches. Those advance at about 1 new sentence a year...
@Lies Bus I'm not saying he's wrong, I'm saying "if you've seen him speak once, any time in the 10 years, it's pretty much the same Schtick
Can you point out where the new sentence is in this one? I like him a lot but I don't feel like watching the whole video for one new sentence, lol.
Pretty much nailed it. I was thinking the same thing. Although you may get a couple new common examples, the meat and potatoes of it are the same.
@@PhenomUprising the entire section at 101:00 discussing the growth rate of deep learning is new.
@@commandersprocket Oki thx!
This is a nice update for those of us who have seen every other previous Kurzweil speech.
Are U sarcastic?
There's 12 likes on this when there should be millions lol
@@stunheart no actually. Though there may have been a complaint hidden between the lines of that comment, I was simply being,… Honest. Oh, and yes I first noticed this two years after you asked the question. Sorry. LOL.
@@6magicman Right?! LOL
@@jonreiser2206 No problem. :D
Not sure why Ray is getting so much hate. Yes, most of the stuff he's mentioned before but there was a few new tidbits.
Jameel Ja yes exactly! I for one am greatful for the 3 new sentences he blessed us with in this talk. Next talk I heard there might be 4!
There are some decent tidbits of information but this guy is so full of shit it's not funny
Because the guy has a god complex and doesn't care about you at all. He is mentally sick and dangerous for everyone who wants to live a meaningful life.
Casually listening, nothing I haven't heard of him say, and than he drops "Deep learning's computations are doubling every 3 months, that's 16X increase over the year...and also our AI can now understand paragraphs better than adults..." Remembering Google Duplex, and am like yeah he is totally on track with his predictions...
@Doug Stillborn you're right. But homosapiens have had 6 million years of evaluation and modern man 275,000 years. While AI has only been around for, what, 30 years. Let's give credit where credit is due. It's amazing where AI is.
@Doug Stillborn I can't call google duplex incredibly stupid. It understood a chinese restaurant pretty clearly, and sound more human than a human. I don't know if you realise that the first smartphone is only 10 years old... Pretty fucking insane to me how tech is advancing. Now it's google duplex, it can understand pretty well and answer pretty well. They made a fucking insane step forward from the normal google assistant capabilities. What is going to be announced after duplex?? God fucking know, a bipedal assistant powered by boston dynamics with the ability to learn anything in second thanks to his direct link to the cloud - physically and intellectually. A fucking robot that updates itself in seconds.
I mean, you'd be fooled to think duplex is just the thing they showed us, it's just a little show off of a bigger vision. The actualy real assistant is coming shortly.
"yeah he is totally on track with his predictions..."
I have evaluated almost all of the predictions from the Singularity is Near here:
www.antropy.co.uk/blog/the-singularity-is-near-how-kurzweils-predictions-are-faring/
@@annie_the_great It's after the presentation during Q&A with the host, or so I presume.
Very true from that perspective.
I made my kid watch this 5 times. He now spends all of his time in the cloud.
*His hair looks beautiful.*
I wish that we could see the visual presentation, also
Ray "i went to MIT because it had a computer" Kurzweil
Looks like toupee technology isn't growing exponentially.
Snarky!
the most information dense lecture I've ever heard in my life.
one hour with useful information to understand which can happily replace hundreds of hours wasted on discussion with people who have an opinion on everithing without the need to roughly understand anything.
the state of affairs would be greatly advanced if Earth understood and embraced the optimism free thinking and entrepreneurial spirit this fellow espouses.. So much good stuff going on -so sad the national media here in the States is 99% negative and dishonest. We're not quite there but stick around Ray is right the age of abundance is 10 years away -sooner if gov as for an example FDA would get out of the way of exponential progress
@Lies Bus good point but there are competing world powers. This means if the us blocks acces through regulation and taxes china might go easier to attract millionaires who cant afford life extension here but can in china or vice versa. Theres also the third world whichll be more lax. Ive thought about this extensively. If only musk could make the space craft affordable for the upper middle class. We could be anarchist in the asteroid belt as a last resort but they would consider us criminals
@@captaininsano8736 www.wespenre.com/My-Books/Book2-AI/contents.htm
@Lies Bus At least you're asking a reasonable question that can be answered and debated. Anyway, here's your response... First of all, the "oligarchs" as you call them are trying extremely hard to liberalize and open their A.I. technologies. So they're just empowering you and helping you. Second, in the old days, a king or warlord might have had hundreds or thousands of children. The "oligarchs" today can trivially afford to do that. It's an incredible time in human history that we're living in: there is no organized and concerted effort by the "oligarchs" to pass on their wealth to thousands of children that they breed or to create "monarchies." Despite our economic problems we are better off than any other time in history. Poverty across the globe has been significantly reduced (see Hans Rosling's amazing TED talks.) Technology is binding people together and we are (maybe slowly) realizing our common humanity. You might want to checkout prof. Steven Pinker's book "Better Angels of Our Nature." So, why should the "oligarchs" _not_ want to help you. They're just giving you the means by which you can improve yourself and the singularity will help with that.
robert hastings
Optimism gives way to despair.
Ray began transforming himself into a cyborg, started with the hair.
Sorry to be so offtopic but does anybody know of a way to get back into an Instagram account?
I was stupid lost the account password. I love any assistance you can offer me
@Dylan Ralph Instablaster ;)
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@Dylan Ralph no problem :)
Isn't it worth mentioning in the intro that he's the Director of Engineering at Google? Or did I miss it?
There are dozens of directors of engineering.
he is A director of engineering at google. Not the director.
"Keep before your eyes all those that experience it before you, and felt shock and outrage and resentment at it. Where are they now? Nowhere" ~ Marcus Aurelius
His lectures don’t change by a hair. If they did, the audience would wig out.
Lmao
Can you turn the lights down?
I was expecting something new or unveiling new projects and products. Its is exactly the same speech hes been giving for years.
He is probably saving new information for his new book.
Lol
So what? Do you have anything intelligent to add to the conversation?
Ultimately, it still remains only wishful thinking on his/their part. Unless more conscious beings imagine and believe what he’s/they’re pitching, it’ll remain but a dream. I’m ok with that… perhaps that’s the nexus of the vax… collective hive mind suggestibility… Jedi mind trix will prove easier…
Its a amazing that this has been done with bio-technology, it is really important to set up these guidelines for artificial intelligence. We hope you can successfully lobby for this project.
Hey a smart response, unlike this idiotic ones
Timestamps would greatly help your presentatioms.
The singularity is fast, but our expectations are to fast for this stuff.
Lol the way his voice changes after 43:09
I agree with Mr. Kurzweil the humans are now more intelligent AND becoming exponentially more intelligent …well stated good video
www.wespenre.com/My-Books/Book2-AI/contents.htm
He keeps bringing up law of accelerating returns but he doesn't mention if there will be diminishing returns before singularity (at singularity there obviously won't be diminishing returns for a very long time). I looked through various sources that touch on this subject but couldn't really find a definitive answer. Feel free to comment your thoughts on the topic, I'd love to know what other people think
It could happen but there is a so much riding on on not losing the acceleration and progress of Moore's law so there are multiple solutions being pursued such as quantum, optical and ubiquitous computing to name a few.
Its extremely important not because we need to continue having the latest and greatest gadgets but the fate of humanity relies on the continued acceleration of technology and progress.
@@Metacognition88 You don't believe there's a limit to quantum computing? I don't know if we will ever be able to create transistors on a subatomic or even atomic scale using human intellect (within the next century at least) considering we still don't fully understand the atomic model. There hasn't been much evidence pointing towards transistors that are operational at this size but i guess we can never really know until it happens. All I do know is the next century is about to be fucking amazing. I've never been more proud to call myself a "computer/science nerd"
I am not sure anyone really knows what the limitations of quantum computing are right now but it seems like its the leading contender for the next paradigm shift in computing. Its in its infancy but quantum computing is finally beginning to show measurable results that it can solve problems classical computing cannot.
As far as the transistors, there will probably we a convergence from other approaches like 3 dimensional transistors or transmitting data via speed of light. etc but i dont believe these semiconductor companies can shrink and cram these transistors that much longer. I do feel confident though the exponential growth will continue at least for awhile at least and yes for people that love science and computing this is an amazing time to be alive.
@@Metacognition88 Great insight! Would you mind sending me articles/research/novels relating to quantum computing solving problems regular computers cannot (does this relate to efficiency or actual higher computing ability) and relating to possible data transfer at the speed of light 👍
This is the most recent
www.tum.de/en/about-tum/news/press-releases/detail/article/35001/
Also you may like the you tube channel singularity prosperity. He's a computer science student but does a good job of research and presenting the info in a concise and accurate way.
Awesome hairpiece
1:16 Was this intro music made with a kurzweil synth?
In October 2020 his new book The Singularity Is Nearer will be out and he will be out again on the lecture/interview circuit. I'd like to see what he has to say then.
27:42 - 28:48 I like how he casually suggests that we leave no room for nature and wildlife.
Super Inspiring to hear & see Ray, thank-you ☯️♾🙊🙉🙈🥰
High5 that Like button, Comment & Subscribe for the algorithm so TH-cam shows this Inspiring content to us more, plus other people 🙏
#LovingLifeNoww ♾
Utilize use the Comment section for notes, plus possibly Inspire others, plus remind & affirm/enable ourself with what is Important to us (we get to decide that too) ☯️✨🙏❤
Decided to be an inventor at 5 lolz
-Mr. Kurzweil mentioned T-cells have been turned off -Does anyone know how?
i cannot find the computations per dollar graph that goes further than the one he shows, even though he says he did update it to 2016. that's very suspicious
Only thing I found was this. It has become linear over the last 2 years, which means on a logarithmic scale it would bend off to the right. They try to mask it with a lot of trajectories not making any sense. Not a good source though, but all I could find - which is very suspicious indeed. nacdblog.site/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Growth-in-Computing-Power.png
Computers don't actually become twice as good every year. Calculations per second per dollar per watt consistently go up by 10x every 5 years since 1970. That's 100x every decade instead of his thousand. I am not talking exclusively about CPUs as AI doesn't use them anymore and science is now more and more often done using accelerators which are an order of magnitude faster. A typical new slim laptop has about 150 gigaflops in a CPU and 1500 gigaflops in a GPU which is all right, given the 10x every 5 years trajectory. Also take into consideration 5 teraflops neural processing units in newest smartphone SoCs like Apple A12 Bionic.
can he predict when there will be professional wigs in the future
😂
Ray Kurzweil has a portrait of himself in the attic that is aging very poorly.
His portrait has a better rug. ;p
Bet his life is mundane in comparison to Dorian though
That would you get about this? So shallow.
Idk. Dude is looking every bit his 70 years, minus the horrendous hair.
yeah it s call Pinocchio
*Can someone explain what's going on with his hair? Why is he wearing a wig? I didn't think he looked that bad before.*
20 years younger with hair
@@JCmultiverse Not when it's fake-looking hair. Just looks like an old guy with a toupee.
Yaw why is his introduction always exactly the same. Has he written it himself or something xD
Ray Kurzweil is brilliant, but he seemed to be slow to understand that historical "Life Expectancy" is actually "Average Life Expectancy," which is a statistical number, which is dramatically decreased in numerical value by infant mortality. So, when people say, "the Life Expectancy of people 1000 years ago was 19," that doesn't mean that everybody only lived to the age of 19 and then died. It merely meant that MOST people died before their 1st year of life, whereas the remaining people had a relatively long lifespan.
Example: 100 people. 30 of them live to be 60 years old, 70 of them live less than 1 year (say 0.9 years). That's an Average Life Expectancy of 18.63 years.
Oh wow! NOT ONLY women are harrassed about their looks. Is gender equality here finally!? We are making progress indeed!
19:55 Did Ray just predict COVID-19?
I'm waiting for a breakthrough conference in the late 2020s where Ray Kurzwail comes out of a coffin
WHY IS HE WEARING A WIG?
WHY ARE YOU SO STUPID?
(Why are you asking such a stupid question)?
Probably making sure everyone in the audience has something to talk about.
@19:50 soooo... Covid 19?
Maybe land on earth it rather limited, but when worrying about such a thing being limited, we actually worry about usable "space" being limited. Of which there is a lot, outside of earth.
“So far the number of people that have hurt by inadvertent or intentional abuse of bio-technology has been approximately 0.”
COVID :')
After the hair transplant he needs a skin transplant, so he can look exponentially weirder year after year.
With all due respect for Ray Kurzweil, this made me laugh out loud. My best compliments, sir Doyle!
It's a wig.
that's a good one.
You will know the singularity is about to hit becuse for a few seconds Ray will briefly morph into a mix of Joan Rivers and Rupaul.....and then BAM!!!!
HEY Redro, what an insanely funny set of images. Brilliant. Wish someone could CGI this. Couldn't stop laughing. Every time I re-read it I would crack up again. Finally came up for air and discovered there were tears coming out of me eyes. Thanks so much.
If there's one thing for sure, it's that the future is going to be very, very weird with all these technological advancements. I foresee a world where people are enslaved by virtual reality; willful prisoners of their virtual prisons. On the other hand, I see technology enhancing the cognitive functions of mankind, turning everyone into a master artist, an expert programmer, a master composer, dancer, painter, etc.
iPhone for half the price?? Ray... I know you're an optimist... But really? Where?
Sorry didn't You say Your father passed away at 58?
?
What about new transport technologies like beaming? It would be immensely useful if we could beam ourselves from any place on earth to any other place in a matter of seconds or minutes. Then you could live for example in Africa, beam yourself to work every day for exampl in North America and afterwards go shopping in Paris. And it would solve the problem of mass migration. No one would need to migrate anymore, since you wouldn't have to live anymore at the same place where you also go to work. It would also get rid of war, since whenever a war starts somewhere you can simply beam yourself out of it. It might create new problems though, when millions of people beam themselves to the same place at the same time.
So there would have to be a kind of global traffic rules for beaming to make sure that there are no beaming congestions.
George Soros Intelligence Network
I don’t think you know any of the shit your talking about stopping immigration stopping war what the fuck are you talking about there is. Nuance and it’s not just convenience I’m not gonna take a left or right stance on this but you’ve got language and cultural barriers National iq low skill work immigrants that go to certain countries and live off welfare
War do you think North Korea and Sweden will get along
Or the us and China no
And new growing world powers
And on if you beam your self you kill your self with Teleporters because you scrambling all your atom so destroying your self and creating a Cope of your self that thinks it’s you
The only way teleport you self is to make a worm hole about a meter in size and you need about a Jupiter size of negative mass to make that meter and we’ve never seen negative mass
Yuman life. Yuman intelligence. Yumans.
Hmmm. I'd like to meet these Yumans. I wonder if they are related to us :P
valar you can meet david icke
so mean and rude
he's not young
I invented a keyboard so I am an expert on everything! Lol
By 2020 this talk will become exponential ridiculous ... Gtx 10800
40:48 “The FDA will now except simulated trials for the approval of vaccines” he then follows this statement with, “We are now making good progress towards developing biological simulators...we should be able to perform these human biological simulations by the late 2020’s”!?!? ANNND this is where I get confused! Is it logical that the FDA has decided to accept biological simulations to establish the safety and efficacy of vaccines, presumably making any safeguards or requirements that have been in place up until this point null and void, when as it seems to have just been explained by Kurzweil, the biological simulators used to perform these “trials” they now except for vaccine approval don’t even exist yet and aren’t foreseen to be used for such a case until late 2020’s? It goes without saying but logically if the tech doesn’t yet exist in a verifiable and scalable way then we can’t even establish whether it works. I’m just a dummy though, and maybe Ray doesn’t have his facts right but if I’m to interpret what I just heard as fact then it is currently true that the FDA now accepts as grounds for approving and implementing vaccines to people a biological trial simulation technology that doesn’t exist! That is quite an assumption for the FDA to make. I hope it is just fallacies of the speaker to enhanced the perceived significance and impact of his work.
Why do we have to drag entire countries into your Frankenstein
experiment. Why not go off and do your experiment with willing
volunteers and if you are a success great and if not we can continue to
live our lives.
Excellent
He sounds under the weather and looks a little haggard. He normally looks good
Initium1000 he looks pretty good at 70
Ray has had his share of health problems, from diabetes in the 80s to a heart operation around 2010. Of course it helps when you can afford excellent medical help but Ray's also been extremely disciplined about his health regimen and keeping up with the newest research. Without that discipline and focus he arguably wouldn't be alive today!
agree looks like shit. i like him but bad here
Instead of actually fasting, Ray takes dozens of dubious mimetic pills that attempt to mimic the benefits of fasting.
It also could be partly the lighting too. The way it's shining on him doesn't lend itself to flattery.
The first person to live beyond 150 years has already been born.
Rather 1500
@@stunheart there probably wont be individual people in 1500 years.
We will have HUMAN level AGI within 18 months. Starting in 2019 IARPA , and many other organizations will run full cortical column simulations of the mouse brain. These cortical columns are repeated 1 million times over in their neocortex and they all work generally the same. By running simulations of them we can use machine learning to reverse engineer its function, and then replicate them in software to create biologically inspired artificial neural nets. The ANNs will be 1 million times more efficient than the ones we have now and they'll solve all 5 major remaining AGI problems. Then run the software on the tachyum 34 exaflop supercomputer , so you can run it at 700 times the speed of the human brain.
Fergus Moffat
Look I’m optimistic on tech but 18 months artificial general intelligence more like 50 years to get to human level of intelligence at best witch I do think we will reach by around that area about 2075
AL1EN
I don’t know if this is a joke
everything will increase exponentially unless it doesn't
The bugger looks younger than 20 years ago ! or is that a wig?
He is the real nastra domis.
Where will people live, if we all live for centuries in an exponentially growing economy?
If humans are able to colonize other planets and the universe has trillions of stars, there’s your answer.
Capitalism will eventually fail. Communism will be the only way forward.
What a wonderful problem to have. Kind of like getting old sucks, but it beats the alternative.
Shame Kurzweil can't see the obvious parallel between his technological exponentials and our exponential population growth. If her understood a little bit more about basic population biology, then he'd be a tiny bit less optimistic.
@@laurencevanhelsuwe3052 I think no one understands population biology in a world with exponential technological development - not even you! It is equally likely our psychology changes, with us not dying anymore, to not wanting to get children; that the logistic equation doesn't apply to us because of our technological development; or that we all die!
A lovely side effect of outliving everyone is you get to see everyone you ever loved suffer and die.
Chris Gonzales
They could use the technology as well so no you don’t have to watch everyone you love die
very scary after chat gpt
'Razor' Ray Kurzweil
This guy freaks me out LOL
Who is this Zombie?
sad most of people will remember him cause of his hair
Such a modern topic and all those wonderful AI predictions and humans still cannot make hair grow again... That wig is there to remind us how pathetic we still are! I love Ray thou... Red all his books.
He was better when he was bald
I wonder why smartphones won’t become cheaper EXPONENTIALLY;(
Mike Marshall
Because people will by then you at full price so they will sell them at that price
wut?
I like and respect this man but this was not his best... and to say "twice as good" about an iPhone is complete bullshit
Nanorobots will connect our neocortex to the cloud. Yes, this is really happening.
I have had a hard time taking Ray as seriously as I used to since he started wearing that toupe or whatever it is. I feel so ashamed for being so shallow.
xD
I'm with you, dude. Ray is a brilliant guy, but this toupe is so bad it's distracting.
Literally 30 seconds in and thought the same thing. He'll be laughing when his toupee becomes a self aware machine. Ohhhhhhhhhh snap
@@RegularRegs Fire
So you should.
Rug Kurzwig
a real Aquarius..
Overcome most diseases in the end of 2020s? Wow, that's... rather optimistic
@Griff - Will do, I could really use some optimism, because as it stands now I feel we advance incredibly slow in regards to medical advances. We can do very little when it comes to terminal diseases like most cancers, ALS, prions and so on.
4:01 This is what happens when you have several light sources, moon landing conspiracists.
Saying an iPhone is "twice as good" every year is complete bullshit! What the fuck?
Master of nothing
His wig is another example that the man is not capable of loving his fate and living a meaningful life. Besides his terrible philosophy. :')
Jaja el quincho que se puso éste tipo... Escribe libros con esa autoestima???
Ray Kurzweil you need Jesus Christ if you want eternal life
@@spaceman6463 Beware of the transhuman "AGENDA" it is connected to the Mark of the Beast (Revelation 13) if you take the Mark you will spend eternity in Hell, Do not be deceived Ray Kurzweil is working for Satan. th-cam.com/video/67EQscMJQII/w-d-xo.html
LivingforChrist
I’m sure you a nice guy but I don’t believe in that kind of stuff
LivingforChrist
I don’t see how making humans smarter stronger faster and immortal helps the devil or cults it would probably help destroy them if there’s cults exist
LivingforChrist
But I’d still like to hare your opinion
LivingforChrist
I in general like hearing what people think about things and debating
Covid-19
Exponential smarter lol! We will get much dumber, because AI will do all the work for us, we will have no need to get smarter anymore!
Some people will use AI as a crutch and others will use it as a lever. Use is in the eye of the beholder.
I guess if you sell the idea that you will live forever you can't get up on stage looking like you're dying - but Jesus that fucking dye job is intellectual dishonesty in deed, if not in word. xD
"A girl in africa with a smartphone" blah blah blah
This guy is so full of ****.
"We can activate our helper-T cells to target cancer" - Cool, why does my mother have lung cancer then?
"We can activate our cells to regenerate the heart" - Cool, why is my dad forced to live with a partially dead heart then?
Seems he's resorted to making things up so that it seems like he might be right, at the cost of giving people false hope. At least we know how valuable his ego is to him.
52:50: "every aspect of life is getting better". Inequality in the developed countries and especially the U.S. is worse than at any time in many decades.
alan2102 inequality may be worse but even the lowest tiers of material wealth have more health and quality of life than ever before in human history as shown by the increase in human lifespan and decrease in poverty
agree. complete bullshit
@@zacharyrolandlittle Living longer, living sicker to feed the profits of the "Medical" Cartels.
By every metric (except climate change) every aspect of life is improving.
Kurzweil is a dyed-in-the-wool capitalist. Instead of getting himself booked for the same old presentation all over the rich globe, he should visit places where capitalism ensures that trickle-down-economics doesn't work, and leaves people by the hundreds of millions in poverty and misery. Every aspect of life is getting better, my arse.
Very interesting, but sooo boring... vapid and plane.
true
perhaps u mean "plain"
@@gregoryallen0001 hahaha yes!! sorry english is not my first language
lamo what an embarrassing wig
40:45 "simulatiors of the world of biology"
It's interesting that Ray thinks we'll be able to simulate biology soon. Todays most massive supercomputers can't even simulate simple molecules containing more than 4-5 atoms, on a quantum scale. And we're a long long way from being able to simulate chemistry (again, on quantum scale). Then.. from there.. to biology ... is a giant leap. And biology needs to be understood on a quantum level (just google "quantum biology").
So no.. simulating biology ain't gonna happen in a long time. Sure.. we'll improve our tools and knowledge. And we will reach life extension capabillities quite soon, we actually already have. But simulate biology? Not even in a few hundered years is my guesstimate. Even taking the law of accelerating returns into account.
Quantum computer will be there