The Push For A Biden Replacement Becomes Real | 538 Politics Podcast
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 ต.ค. 2024
- The ground has started to shift beneath President Joe Biden's feet. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple Democratic lawmakers raised questions about his viability as a candidate in 2024 and weighed in on who might replace him should he step aside.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley about the latest data on how voters are reacting to Biden's debate performance and what could happen next.
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"No one wanted to challenge Biden in the primaries." Except that we'll really never know if this was the case because the White House went to such trouble to make sure that challengers weren't allowed on the ballot or that primaries didn't take place at all.
Right. The whole process was essentially rigged and the dnc used its power to pressure candidates not to run.
And I thought the 2020 primary was a mess...at least it existed. And where are all those candidates at NOW? They were talking about Biden's age even then, but most of them seem pretty quiet now (besides Tulsi) on whether Biden is even less qualified due to his age...after all, age only goes in one direction.
RFK did.
Biden hasn't pressured anyone not to run...
There have actually been several Democratic nominees who have remained in the race until the last month...
The majority of potential nominees, for example Gavin Newsom, stayed out of the Primary because they have faith in Biden's ability to do his job with the evidence of the job he's done...
It's ridiculous, at this hour to demand he drop out. One reason being any future nominee won't be allowed on the ballot and you would have to write that nominee in...
The only people screaming about Biden dropping out are, so called progressives and MAGA...
@@ChristmasLights2
RFK did what?
He hasn't been able to get on several ballots...
I get that the optics of going around Harris would be toxic. But “it’s her turn” is the kind of thinking that got us here. The purpose of a party is to elevate the best person to win elections, not to hold jobs for the person with the most power waiting in line the longest. The thinking at this point should be to find the person, who could be a total dark horse, who can win the national election by the largest margin by the end of the convention. And maybe that is Harris. But maybe it’s not.
Let the republicans can pick the democrats candidate, they seem the only ones able to diagnose obvious dementia
Black women will sit home en masse if they do that. Pretty sure of it based on my conversations.
@@Ember-Rayne not an issue. We can ballot harvest. They don’t need to leave home. We can do a mass ground campaign and offer ppl some sort of incentive to sign off on the ballot we fill out for them
@@Ember-RayneHere’s a crazy idea. Make the nominee Michelle Obama. I think she’s legitimately popular, and you wouldn’t piss off black women voters.
@Ember-Rayne black women don't move elections, white women do. Check who lives in the suburbs cause it's not black women.v
It's not his AGE. It's his cognitive abilities.
Yeah, Bernie's 82 but still chuggin' along.
it is both.
It's both. Even a fit, active, and present eighty year old's health can landslide down within half a year at that age. Electing someone that old will always be a risk.
I think his brain is fine. I went back and looked at a bunch of public appearances from last year.
Something physical happened in September. His entire manner changes.
If you READ his speeches they are the same.
If you WATCH his body language, he picked up that shuffling walk, vague gestures, and persistent cough. His voice gets raspy and uncertain sounding.
October 8 is when Special Investigator Hur cornered Biden for that 7 hour long deposition.
We may owe that dude an apology, btw. The way he presented his concerns was still unacceptable but he wasn’t wrong, it seems.
He also focused incorrectly on cognitive function. Something is _physically_ burdening Biden and sapping his focus and energy.
At least, that’s how it’s going to seem until Biden himself proves otherwise by getting out and doing multiple neutral or hostile interviews.
If we're honest, Trump has trouble sometimes, too. Mixing up names and places, going off on tangents about sharks, etc. He didn't do that at the debate so much, likely due to the mic being shut off much of the time. So, it's not like Biden is the only one who has declined somewhat as he has aged. But that isn't getting reported as much, due to the way Biden came off in the debate.
The Democrats made their bed. Now they have to pay the price.
The far-right and the far-left made their bed. Now they have to pay the price.
@@rossgoldberg5201 What "far left"? Lmao, you clearly have no knowledge about politics.
@@rossgoldberg5201lmao bothsideium grade cope
Harris didn't do well in 2020. She is not the presumptive best choice. She was about to drop out when Biden offered her VP. An open convention would provide a national forum that would be well covered in all media. Let the delegates narrow the choice to 6-8 candidates, then give each one an hour to articulate their vision for the next term. In this time of instant communication I would think that polling could be implemented that would at least give the delegates a sense of the publics preferred choice. It doesn't have to be influence pedaling in back-room deals. Democrats don't need another Dukakis.
I think Kamala would do great, she’s grown a lot in the past 4 years, but I think the best road is for her to become the president now then have an open convention and let the delegates chose a candidate. It’ll most likely be her but at least there will be some sort of primary election. .
@@atticusandwinifred3274Kamala is toxically connected to all of Biden’s worst policies and she’s unable to pull the working class black vote back. She’s seen as unlikable even in her own community, I’m black and a woman and talk about this all the time with other black women. Most black voters are singularly occupy with the goal of keeping Trump out. Our community has no emotional attachment to Kamala, the only way it becomes a problem is if the media makes it one. She can be easily replaced in the context of black voters. The same dem pundits telling you this would be a big deal are the same ones that don’t understand why the dem party has been bleeding black support up to this point. They don’t understand the community, so don’t listen to them, go right to black voters poll them on how much they care about dropping Kamala, I bet most won’t care if it means Trump is out.
Most compelling reasons I’ve seen to support a Harris presidency is that a) she’s the only one who can legally access the campaign funds that were raised for the Biden Harris ticket and b) the contrast of running a felon against a prosecutor would make ad writing and debates SO easy. Otherwise yeah - she’s not super exciting, and I disagree with her on a lot of issues. But she’s with it, young enough, competent, and experienced. The bar is in hell… and she at least clears it I guess haha
Within 10 minutes of the debate starting it was abundantly clear that Biden would not remain the candidate. Everything since is people catching up with that reality.
It was actually completely clear four years ago, they just ignored it and pushed an incompetent old man into the office anyway. It was better than the alternative incompetent old man because the alternative incompetent old man brags about his bigotry and greed instead of hiding it. And, is orange
Drudge has already removed all Biden headlines, and it is all Kamala now.
not for sure borh reagan and truman had extreme issues
"Abundantly clear" means "I'm all in for MAGA."
Yep. Basically within 10 seconds, I'd say. Big oof..
We beat Medicare.
It cannot be Harris. She is not compelling as a candidate.
You must be referring to Mr Trump for sure!😊
A Woman of Color isn't? Is it 2024 or the 1800's?! 😫
Kamala Harris was previously District Attorney and Attorney General, seems like a perfect person to take on Trump.
@@naomieyles210she was unpopular in California as attorney general and as senator. I lived there. She also was not elected. She was chosen by Biden after he put his foot in his mouth and pledged to a point of black woman as his running mate. JFC...
Look, we’re going to vote for anyone but Trump. If Trump’s opponent is a listeria-laced ham sandwich, the ham sandwich will win.
If we insist that Biden stay in, it will be President Harris anyway within a few months.
The thing that Biden’s battling seems to be PHYSICAL. I fear he’ll experience a severe fall or stroke out right in public if he keeps trying to push himself.
Something happened in September. It’s getting worse. It’s fine. This is something we expected when we elected the 78 year old guy.
Harris is fine. If Biden passes the torch, she can ride the “First Woman President” hype all the way through a victory in November.
We don’t have to cling to a failing old man. We don’t have to elect a spoiled ham sandwich. Kamala is right there.
Open convention would hype leople up it would be chaotic in a good way
Is that even possible if they want to be on the ballot in Ohio though?
@@rachels.8051to be fair, no democrat is winning Ohio anyways
@@neillogan8540 I’m from Indiana and the hatred for Donald Trump is enough that I think introducing almost literally ANY other option has a fair shot of working.
Even just transferring the nomination to a newly sworn in Madam President Harris would be hype as hell.
It would take attention off trump and his campaign , that will be good .
This is bigger than Joe Biden’s ego. Step aside sir.
PROJECT 2025 & its consequences are of far greater concern "than Joe Biden’s ego." VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO IS RUNNING.
Nothing is bigger than joes ego. I’m super impressed republicans somehow knew he had dementia back in 2020, even though there were no obvious signs
@@1237barcaGO BACK AND LOOK AT HIM.
@@1237barcaWe saw him,take a look and you’ll see it too.
@@patricaowens there were no signs. He got the most votes in history. Nobody could have known. Except republicans. Must be evil Christian magic.
The idea that you can't bypass Harris because she's a black woman is ridiculous. She's terrible. Everyone knows she's terrible. Just pick someone who will appeal to independents and light -red Republicans because Trump can't win if you give those groups a serious alternative. It doesn't have to be a big name person. Jared Polis of Colorado would be perfect. He would absolutely dominate the political center. But Klobuchar or Whitmer would be fine.
Once the person is in the race and are big news, they'll go from unknown to very well known in a heartbeat. You don't even need the war chest. The sheer newsworthiness of it will make that person famous. Harris would be a better choice than Biden...but not by much because everyone knows she's terrible. So pick someone not terrible. That's how low the bar is in this race. You can be a C- pick and dominate this race.
She not black. She's east indian
You can be certain that Democratic elites will choose the option that makes beating Trump as difficult as possible.
it would be the death of identity politics if they went around her. best thing to happen in years
The idea is to let Biden decide. He stays in, there is nothing they can do. For now, he has said he will not go and that's the end of it.
100% I strongly believe Michigan Governor Gretch Whitmer is the democrats best chance she is slightly less known than Newsom or Kamala but has a better track record and is loved by her state. The name recognition isn't really consequential as after she's selected she'll instantly get more than enough, you just need someone to put on the platform that appeals and neither Kamala or Gavin seem likely to do so, in comparison someone who is likely to actually appeal to most the country after she gets some airtime sounds like a god-send.
In betting markets she's already just after kamala and has great polling with people that know of her.
21:15 We're in the social media era, and nothing is the way it used to be. The drama of an open convention could be just what the Dems need to take the attention of the nation and focus it on the issues that they want to focua on. I believe that, if done well, it could draw the attention of the voters who haven't been paying attention and finally get some momentum behind their chosen candidate.
The Republicans have been doing unconventional things for well over a decade now, and it has gained them immerse power despite only winning the popular vote once. It's time we take risks and not just try to orchestrate the safest route.
And I think that the delegates would most likely end up choosing Harris anyway. The delegates are all very engaged with politics and the risks involved with choosing someone other than Harris. They know about the campaign finance rules. They understand the optics of teying to push aside Harris. And most will want the continuity of keeping Biden's VP and chosen successor. So letting an open convention play out has little risk of a surprise outcome in reality unless some contender decides to make it contentious which would likely hurt their own prospects in the future. I think that he would come out of the convention with a headwind that just handing her the nomination would not give her.
The biggest thing is that they cannot be caught, again, trying to put their thumbs on the scale. They need to at least trust the delegatea in a manner that they've failed to truat thw voters in their own party in 2016. This could be the reset that they need to change their narrative. Many people are of a mind to oppose Trump once again. They just need a reason to believe that it will be worthwhile.
This is such good reasoning, I doubt the DNC would do it. But I'd love to be surprised! Make Raskin the nominee and it's *chefs kiss*
Thank you for writing this! All this talk about "it's too late" is using logic from the 1960's. We live in a social media world, you can generate national name recognition in a week. Once the presumptive Democratic nominee makes their keynote at the DNC and stays in the news cycle until Election Day, name recognition will be a non-issue.
@@TheMageesa Raskin seems very unlikely, whats your opinion on Gretchen Whitmer she is on all the betting sites the 5th most likely option after Newsom, Biden, Harris & Michelle and seems like a genuinely competent likeable candidate, it would also likely play better than skipping Harris for a man among women.
How I see it Gavin is too easily attacked as many believe he's made a mess of california, Michelle genuinely doesnt want to run for president, and Harris just has failed to become likeable and has very little upside potential. Hence imho Whitmer makes the most sense but I'm curious what others think
@@Pasta_Pirate💯
The Public: we don't want Biden, we never really did
Kamala: Hold my beer.........
No to Harris! No! No! No!!!!
Why? If the only choice against Trump is a literal moldy turnip, I’m picking the turnip. I wouldn’t even hesitate.
Vice President Harris has been part of an extremely effective governance team for over three years. That’s not nothing.
She’s also got a pleasant yet forceful presence and a solid grip on policy. And, she’s not 158 years old.
I will freely admit that she’s somewhat of a disaster as a speaker unless she’s on a favorite topic. That’s not ideal but _gesturing at our current President who has a speech impediment._
Is she weird? Yep. Neurodivergent people are part of society and it’s time that people accepted that there’s different ways to think and communicate.
Two of the other people who are often named as future POTUS candidates are also neurospicy.
@@irenafarm I didn't say I would vote for Trump over her. But she doesn't have 'it'. Meaning she has zero charisma
The problem with someone close to Biden is that she is going to be asked over and over about when she knew Biden was in such bad shape. An outside Governor can claim he didn't know either
Good point. I think Newsom is the most viable. He's ready and able.
@@PaulWhitcomb-ty6md you are probably correct
no they have no good options. it has to be kamala because otherwise all the money has to go back to the donors. and they have to act in warp speed because there are various state ballot deadlines. if they miss that deadline NO democrat will be on the OHIO ballot (for example). And the “luminaries” at the View have said you can’t just throw over kamala for a white male like gavin. but on the other hand kamala is a nit wit. she dropped out with no support and because she got into politics on her back. she’s the border czar? how good is the border these days? The democratic machine/cnn/msnbc are badly damage for being biden shills. can that machine lie enough to pull kanala over the finish line? if america lets them do that again maybe they deserve a haris presidency. but harris proved that michelle obama could strep in and not have to do anything anyway. so maybe harris/obama could work.
I don't think so. Reporting has shown that for most of the time, Biden is fine and in good shape every day. I would not be surprised if Harris and others were blindsided by his debate performance. I have seen Biden in many events, several interviews and the like over the last year where he is perfectly fine. And I have little reason to believe that Biden has the kind of seeming meltdown that he had at the debate very often. So, I don't think anyone could blame Harris for asking Biden to step down, which is presumably where you're going with that line of thinking.
@@PaulWhitcomb-ty6md He really isn't a strong choice in an electoral college. Middle America won't want a smug coastal elite governor from a state that cable news has been painting the main cities in a terrible light for years now. Californians might not realize it, but much of the country has a very negative opinion of them and that negativity is not just from republicans.
Harris is extremely unpopular, she will lose easily
I cannot imagine crowds getting excited about Kamala Harris.
Maybe you're right, but she polls better than everyone else. Personal feelings aren't as great a guide to popularity as polls. That said, you might see changes if events put her into debates with some of these alternatives, or even Trump's VP nominee. If she knocked his block off, more might approve a bout with Trump.
@@kb_100 I cannot imagine crowds being excited about two old men who want to be POTUS in their 80s.
Y’all greatly underestimate the hype that the first Madam President would create.
Americans are novophilates to an extreme. The newest thing is always the best thing.
They’d hesitate over electing a female President for the first time, but they’ll be delighted to discover that it’s happening without their having to take responsibility for the decision.
That’s assuming that Biden resigns as well as handing off his delegates to Kamala.
Don’t forget that around 60% of voters are completely disengaged.
If Biden resigns, a whole lot of Americans will say, “Oh! Well, I guess he’s old. Oh, that means we have a female President now! That’s nice.”
Then they’ll completely forget by next week.
In late October, those folks will be surprised that it’s an election year, and look at their choices.
“Trump? Wtf, I thought he was in jail after Jan 6! Okay who’s the other one?
“Oh! That’s right, Biden retired and we got a woman President.
“Seems like everything is fine. I’m not voting for the guy in jail! Seriously wtf Republicans?”
He may as well stay in if it has to be Harris. Here we could turn this nightmare into opportunity but we will throw it away again because of people feeling it's about them personally. I'm a woman, I want a woman to be president but I wouldn't stay home instead of voting for man. I voted for Obama instead of Hillary because I felt he was the better candidate - because it's bigger than a person's skin color and genitals for Pete's sake. Women won't have a right left if Trump wins. We might not be able to vote again.
Given that the debate was the most shocking political earthquake of my lifetime (age 50), I think you should not consider polls before that.
I’m 50 yrs old, too, and feel the same. While Biden has exhibited (on camera) multiple incidences presenting with symptoms of dementia over the last two years, this debate was different from those previous incidences. Those other times could be “spun” as Biden just having a “senior moment” because they, generally, were brief camera shots. The debate, however, was the first time Biden’s dementia was fully showcased in all of its cringe ugliness, as that split-screen camera was on Biden every second of that whole debate, and viewed by millions of Americans either live on TV or on TH-cam the next day.
When we think of a politician having “a bad debate performance” we tend to think of a candidate who is simply not arguing their points very well, not having any slick remarks or memorable “comebacks”, and not articulating their opponent’s weaknesses very well. We typically DON’T think of “a bad debate performance” as being incapable of completing a coherent sentence, spewing responses that devolve into gibberish, while exhibiting a thousand yard stare whenever it’s their opponents turn to answer questions. This wasn’t “a bad debate performance”. It was “a debate performance by a bad candidate.”
Dude this guy was dead in 2020 look at the reporting and what other democrats were saying at the time! Democrats have screwed with every nominee since Obama wake up
@@rickbrenner6079 Well said. Biden's thousand yard stare and bizarre mental behavior was a disgrace. It's sad because mental decline isn't funny but the leader of the free world so at least be able to make a coherent sentence without reading off a teleprompter.... unreal.
@@rickbrenner6079 Absolutely this. This was not a "bad debate performance". It was a whole different game, a whole different universe, at which it was bad.
@@rickbrenner6079 : People have seen this differently over the last couple of years. I have seen him in multiple settings giving clear and energetic speeches and doing a lot of events with the unions and meetings that are available readily to watch on TH-cam, unedited. In those events he has been absolutely fine. Many of them have been long events, too. If you pay attention to those, you see a competent, capable person who may cough a little or fumble a word or so trying not to stutter. But otherwise, fine.
The debate performance was a very different thing entirely. That was more halting and fumbling than I have ever seen from him. And then after the debate, he was back to doing energetic events again. So, a person who has paid close attention can legitimately see the debate as a "bad night" but also see that Biden isn't in a state of dementia. Opponents have been saying he has dementia since 2019. I don't think it's dementia, but I do think there's something going on there on some level.
Having the podcast about the British election is ironic for the Fourth of July, isn't it?
Only if you think America is the center of the universe
@@rafstrayhorn5772 Or if you think America fought a war of independence against Britain that's celebrated on the Fourth of July
A pre-recorded one doesn't make sense, since by around 1am GMT (5pm Pacific) the outcome will likely be known.
@@rafstrayhorn5772 only 50% of it, the other center is across the multiverse in a danny deveto clone made for an amusement park game.
@@rafstrayhorn5772This guy doesn’t know American history. The joke went straight over his head
We finally beat Medicare time to bring our troops home and corn pop. It's like watching people run for president of the retirement association.
😂
😅
Hilarious!
the best part was their debating their golf handicaps. because voters really needed to know that before filing in their ballot
Hey Patrick, why don't you run? Let's see if you can do what Joe did in 3.5 yrs to bring us out of a pandemic, increase jobs, lower unemployment; Chips Act, got the drug companies to negotiate with Medicare to lower the cost of insulin to $35/per month, supported & walked with the united auto workers and the package they negotiated with the companies they work for, only promises to increase taxes on those making more than 450K a year. VS. the beast who accomplished 0 in four years except giving the richest ppl in our country a 2 trillion $ tax break.
Is it possible that White House Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre,
is channelling the Michael Palin part in Monty Python's
"Dead Parrot Sketch" ?
When she put her head down on the podium I thought, “Oh dear me. It’s Joever.” 😂
Trump up 6 points in the latest NYTimes/Siena LV poll... it's joever
Yes and Hillary had a 77 percent chance of defeating Trump in 2016 on election day according to polls compiled by the 538. Polls are Bull$%&T
😂🤣
NY Times? Uhhh
Not if the Democratic party pulls this off. They jettison Joe and they get all their 2020 votes back.
@@HokieD1993 and pretty much every other poll. how's that echo chamber?
You forgot the video again?
Probably cost
Thank you for the polls, as we desperately need to see where the Biden’s awful performance affects the next election.
Chaos is a ladder, Galen.
Which means?
@@PaulWhitcomb-ty6md LOL It's a Game of Thrones reference to Galen saying chaos might be good!
Littlefinger lives!
I'm in the U.K, and I'm wondering whether you guys are messing up your elections, more than I'm thinking about mine.
Britian is a mess too and the people don't deserve what is happening.
I hope cooler heads prevail and I know Joe Biden will be back in the White House.
Let's see if we can swap-out ol' comatose Joe for somebody fresher. Good luck on your election and I hope the Labour Party drops it's militarist stance.
@@PaulWhitcomb-ty6md Thanks buddy, hope you have a great 4th July, and celebrate the USA never having to have a king who is above the law!
Are you a native or immigrant
Labor or Labour suck dude. Don’t do it.
WE TOLD YOU SO
My money is a decision by next Wednesday. They can't do it over the long weekend but need to have it wrapped up to recover the story line before the end of next week's news cycle
Next Friday will be two weeks since the debate. It will be after the NATO summit in DC next week.
I’m honestly really nervous about Biden’s ability to negotiate as needed to keep the NATO partners engaged and reassured that the US isn’t going to be run by a madman by this time next year.
*We could be in the 7th year of a Bernie Sanders administration but American voters are so uninformed here we are instead.*
It was the democrats that passed over Bernie.. They screwed him over at every chance. Two elections in a row they did that. So this will make three election cycles where something shady happened when it comes to the democrat primary.
Not only that but the dnc actively sabotaged his campaign twice.
Imagine how much better of a world we would be living in
Bernie would have been a disaster!
@@bobburrows992 we pretty much got bernie
Ms Harris has to interview for the promotion. There will be outside candidates. Welcome to the major leagues
She did a whole presidential campaign, as well as already competing against most of those folks in 2020.
If Biden resigns, Kamala is President. That’s what the Constitution says.
As far as the nomination, she’s already been nominated on the ticket with Biden.
On top of that, in November, she’ll have been President for four months. If the Democrats say, “Okay we elected Kamala as second in command and she’s President now but we made a mistake so please America can you vote for this other candidate who isn’t President?
Also it seems weird to see people announce rules out of the blue like y’all can manifest changes to the Constitution.
Stay calm. Biden is “sharp as attack”.
I'm for a replacement. Democrats need to take chances at this point, they have nothing to lose. I keep seeing polls that others would lose too, but I think those polls don't consider the American public getting to know that new person and how much a different Vice President could excite the base.
Also there’s a huge swathe of voters who are checked out entirely, and the President resigning would capture the public attention for days and days.
Retiring for health reasons would generate tons of sympathy and people will be super hype over the novelty of being able to say Madam President for the first time.
Predicting anything or even trying to make odds is impossible. We're dealing with something that is unprecedented. Speculatioin is irrelevant since the decision to run or not is up to one man alone. The closest parallel in my lifetime is when Sen Thomas Eagleton was removed from the ticket in 1972, and that is not even 1% in significance to this. There's nothing to do but enjoy the summer ....thinking about it is so effin' depressing.
Wall Street Journal poll JUST came out also showing Trump up 6 points.
So much for the NYTimes poll being an outlier...
Just wait until we get our new nominee. It's going to be 2020 all over again.
What would you expect from Murdoch?
@@PaulWhitcomb-ty6md Lol...if it's Harris (which is almost guaranteed to be the case, unless she's willing to cut a deal to step down, along with Biden) than it will be a lot closer to 2016 than 2020...which means whatever woman they try to throw at Trump will be chewed up again lol. I think Biden's win in 2020 proved that Hillary wasn't totally wrong...there is definitely a streak of sexism in the US, even in 2024. Harris is definitely inferior to Hillary, so I don't see her taking off at all.
And that blends the MUCH BIGGER leads in SWING STATES!
Ah yes “we are only good at predicting things if they are predicable” is basically what these guys say. “Predictions work when there is historical precedent”. It’s too bad that significant historical events are fundamentally unpredictable. 2024 people still don’t get Taleb.
It was real two years ago, stop pretending you know better
Will the (anti)racists keep to their values even if it looks like they will lose? Or will they face facts that character, experience, and skill matter when facing reality? The DEI question facing many organizations right now.
Kamala is universally disliked. Do not do this
She has 4 months to win people over. And even those who “don’t like” her will admit, at this point, that she is cognitively more with-it than Biden.
Including by AAs ( other than AA women over 55)
Don't be racist.
Harris as POTUS, Obama as VP - they would win
@@Merriwether-w8kUgh… eye roll 🙄. Take a look at the economy under Obama. Do people even research or understand politics anymore?
Couldn't they have like....figured this out NOT SO CLOSE TO THE ELECTION?
Sure. But let's not get greedy.
They’ve known for years. They’d hoped they could hide it.
The thought the dumb people (us in their eyes) wouldn't figure out they were lying so that the unelected people could continue running the white house.
@@Brian-ro7st Biden hasn't been like this for years. He had issues in 2020 but there has been a big decline.
Ill try again... They thought the dumb people (us in their eyes) wouldn't figure out they were lying about joe being non compos mentis which would allow the unelected people could continue running the white house.
Deleting this doesn't change the fact that its true
Timing has nothing to do with it. It's all about the money. If Biden drops out, and she doesn't replace him, all the donor money isn't able to be used for whoever else becomes the nominee. 😂
The next nominee wouldn't be on the ballot in many states...
The idea of a replacement is ridiculous on so many counts...
It makes it more complicated, but far from impossible. Either democrats believe our democracy hinges on this election, or they don't. Running such a weak candidate as Biden would suggest that they do not in fact believe this.
Full disclosure: I'm to the Left of the Democratic party. I wouldn't vote for Joe Biden due to the horrors of Gaza, but I could be convinced to vote for a different candidate
Timing does have something to do with this.
The potato should have dropped out a year ago . . . then we wouldn't be stuck with Kamala as the only alternative.
He resigns - Harris is sworn in as POTUS - she picks Obama as VP - they win
@@Merriwether-w8kDo you seriously think that that would work in the social media era?
Biden could be his own October Surprise if he has a likely but unexpected medical event closer to the election.
According to your model it is a 50/50 race on July 3. Yeah, right. Nate Silver has it 65/35 favoring Trump. Who is right?
You are not aware that this, 538, *is* Nate Silver...???
And that you appear to've made up these statistics?
@@JackAShepherd Silver left 538 over a year ago in May 2023.
@@JackAShepherd You are not aware that 538 website was sold to ABC News in April 2023 and Nate Silver left the site?
From the excitement in all the media outlets looks like democratic primaries are already taking place, but not in public. We will just learn about the end results.
He has been a great politician. But it is time to do the right thing for the country and not what his wife wants (The White House)
How do you know that Jill wants him to stay?
Yes, Biden acquired multimillionaire wealth on government salaries!
50 years of do nothing politics and corruption.
Yep. Great politician for sure.
The right thing for the country is to make sure a corrupt democrat like him. Kamala, Newsome, and Big Mike Obama NEVER HOLD OFFICE AGAIN.
Are you kidding. Clyburn okaying a mini primary. Give us a chance to vote for a human with real old school democratic feel. Blue landslide, I say go for it. Harris Whitmer Besher etc etc etc
If Biden steps down then his replacement has to go through the same ordeals that any nominee has to go through.
Yep, so Kamala maybe steps in for optics, but the convention elects the actual nominee
For only 4 months. You might then say "buht the campaign monies", I would say that doesn't matter either bc why do you need all of it for just 4 months? you need 1/64th that amount for that timeframe. If they put a formidable and inspiring candidate up, then you would already have the majority appeal (no, not cringy, dnc stooge Kamala)
@@HokieD1993 Not is he resigns - then Harris is sworn in as POTUS
You mean AIPAC approval?
There is a process in the bylaws of the party if a nominee doesn't accept. Redoing the primary process is not an option, because that literally takes months to do. Even if you said we should have every state do a primary on the exact same day to choose a new nominee, a lot of planning has to happen, and it would be very expensive to do that, too. Every state would have to make new ballots and hire staff to oversee everything. It's just not practical. Biden won most of the delegates and should be able to voluntarily release them with the endorsement of his VP to take his place. That's the simplest way to do it, and really the fairest way. The voters chose the Biden/Harris ticket and this way the ticket moves forward but without Biden.
Dems need to back the nominee. Whoever it is.
I think Biden should step aside, it would be unfortunate for Biden to resign, though he should, the unfortunate side effect from that is Harris would be the first woman president, I personally don't think she's qualified or up to the job! There are far more qualified women out there that should carry that torch!!!
Having a first woman POTUS is a huge deal - even if its jst for 3 months - the ceiling will be shattered
If Joe can let Kamala have that title. It would ruin the Trump hats with 47 on them! 😂
@@jakefrost8017HAHAHAHA OMG YOU’RE RIGHT.
I think people vastly underestimate the potential hype generated by the first Madam President.
As far as qualifications? Biden’s team has been mentoring her for 3 years. She was a Senator before that.
We survived Trump’s toxic incompetence. We can survive someone with good intentions who actually has WAY more governance experience than Obama did.
IF YOU WERE ANGRY and a hasty divorce lost your best man, emptied hope from your children, and you be old and lonely every night, just pretending he is still your lover with his heartbeat all night ... swear you smell him still in the morning .... THINK TWICE BEFORE YOU LOSE A PERSON. DONT THROW FOLKS AWAY .... lets hang on to JaBiden a moment longer.
The other issue is campaign financing. I believe only Kamala would be able to access current funds. Otherwise it would mean starting from scratch. I believe that is the biggest practical reason she will be the nominee. I also agree about the significant discord within the Dem Party if she isn't chosen.
With regard to the effect of chaos, Republicans handle it much better than Dems. I think chaos would be more deleterious for Dems. Look no further than the Gaza issue or trans rights.
If Silicon Valley opens wallets for Newsom - it would be ok - best case scenario is this - Biden resigns, Harris is sworn in as POTUS - she picks Obama (either one) as her VP - open convention - she wins all the delegates - beats Trump, makes history, saves AMerica
Your points about Harris are good ones, but it's iffy. If they can manage to retain the funding, and spin the optics, they might realize there are more viable options than Harris. A hard and clumsy decision, but it depends on if they are playing to win. If Harris is nominated, Democratic poll numbers automatically go up 5% points.
@@PaulWhitcomb-ty6md If Biden makes Harris POTUS - then have an open convention - if Newsom or someone else wins more delegates then her - then so be it - but the Dems will still have the first woman POTUS even if it's only for 3 months - still history making - also, if Harris picks one of the Obamas then its over - we win!
That's because conservatives are focused on a very small group of core issues, and they don't care who they have to vote for to get them. There is no type of chaos that takes their eyes away from winning at all costs. The left and center... even with our existential fates at stake, there are some who'd be willing to risk it just to prove a point.
@@fighterck6241Please tell me what existential risk you will be taking.NOBODY can tell me without making something up.
If we push Biden out we loose!!
I’m worried more about the cognitive abilities of the people who still think he has what it takes to function as a Walmart greeter, let alone president.
He still passed a lot of key legislation (chips, infrastructure, etc) and is presiding over a thriving economy by most measures. So presumably his cognitive abilities aren't bad enough to be unproductive in office.
and 45 passed the MOCA test which he raves about. NOT THE MENSA< THE MOCA!!!!!😂(MAN, WOMAN, PERSON CAMERA, TV)REMEMBER THAT GUY? He BRAGGED ABOUT TAKING IT!. MY mum God rest her soul, took that test to get into an independent assisted living facility.
@@HokieD1993He has a stable of handlers. The same handlers that put together the debate terms. 😮
Biden’s issue appears to be physical, not cognitive. The debate night babbling seemed to be a special occasion powered by overdoing the cough syrup.
I do think he’s not got the stamina to support the intense stress levels that go with the job.
I also think this went south only recently. Biden last summer was still biking and whatnot.
By October, he’d acquired that raspy voice and cough and shuffling gait.
I wonder about Long Covid. I have that. Sometimes I am able to hike and get perfect scores on statistics quizzes. And some days I can’t hardly walk to fix a sandwich.
There’s sudden brain fog associated with that, too. The brain fog is super weird. It’s like trying to swim through molasses.
Regardless, we need to see him out there and instead, it seems like they’re hiding him. That’s not good.
It's weird how many people will say this on a voice only podcast
I’m voting for Joe since he’s a king now he can cancel the election and just stay in office. Can’t be punished for anything he does when he’s in office.😂
King Biden seems a better choice than King Trump, no?
@@jackrice2770 lol I agree😂😂😂
Unfortunately, the Supreme Court said THEY would be the judge of whether a President was immune or not in ambiguous cases, meaning Republican Presidents will be deemed immune and Democrats not.
Is that why he called his son Barron? @@jackrice2770
@@vinista256what happened to We the People
>British politics
> relevant to Americans
Pick one.
Let it go Joe
I nominate Jamie Dimon.
hell yeah
That'd certainly be an interesting pick. He'd be the most skilled president since Eisenhower, and he can probably beat Trump. Are Democratic leaders actually considering him?
@@FireEverLivingthe party leadership is stupid and doesn’t listen to its voters because they are out of touch. It had the opportunity of a generation during/after Obama and blew it. Both parties honestly need to be dismantled… and it seems the Republicans already have in favor of Trump.
I can get behind Kamala or a ham sandwich, let's go! Vote blue over orange
what about voting for corn pop???
My question is why did 538 decide on the mean, and not, say, the median?
I think Pete Buttigieg is the most effective communicator in the Democratic party and would mop the floor with Trump.
I agree. I like him as VP. But I guarantee that Biden and Harris have a short list already picked since day 1 of the term, “just in case.”
I’m sure it will be fine. The important thing is to make the transition ASAP and get on the campaign trail.
The Lich has a good track record so I'm voting for him.
If he’s a Lich,, doesn’t that make his staff, necromancers? That’s pretty metal.
I am a republican and I am voting for Joe Biden!! And I Completely embarrassed about the republicans and what i'm seeing from the republicans!! Embarrassing!!
Sure you are 😂😂😂
Lol okay "user-cv2si1rc1q". Bots ain't even trying to look real anymore huh?
Marshmallows orange marshmallows lmao😅😅😅😅
That is why they are supposed to host a Democratic debate and have others run against Joe Biden as democrats just in case if the first option fails. Common sense, plus why is everybody afraid to run against the guy ? Where are the Democrats that can say they can do better ?
They are waiting for Biden to step aside
Good question. It's pretty obvious now he would have been defeated in a dem primary. So protecting him hurts the party
@@AlAndalusiIbnRagnar all the Democrats $$$ is pledged to Joe, so he controls the war chest. He would have to give it up or pass it on. (if he even has the ability to do this?)
He’s not going to go quietly into the “good night”
Yes, which other Dem superstar saved us from the greatest danger of all time, then went on to be a great first-term President despite no support from non-voting so-called progressives? I'm very happy with Biden, and Kamala as his successor.
@@JR-pr8jb to be fair, Trump was so unpopular that a carton of milk would have won that one; and yes, Biden has been a great president, but considering his decline, he's not realistically going to pull this off again.
Still voting for Joe Biden no matter what 💙💙💙💙
You guys sound neutral. I could not tell bias, one way or the other. Well done
"Neural"??? Did you mean neutral Shit-for-brains? 😂
agree, good podcast
Vote Joe Biden Democrat 2024
Please vote Democrat
I invested in Kamala at 13%. Now shes at 48% and I’m up $1,400 lol
I love the podcast! I always like to watch on TH-cam because I get to see people’s faces but have no problem with audio only on the podcast app. Would be helpful if the thumbnail had like and “audio only” icon
Hard to believe Trump and Biden are the same age.
they arent. biden is 3 years older
Trump’s brain is 10 years older, while Biden’s body has aged about 10 years in 9 months.
Can there be a poll that captures people who, after the debate, have decided now not to vote for either candidate? There might be many who, in good conscience, won’t vote for Trump but also just can’t vote for Biden (due to feeling like it’s elder abuse to do so).
How about Harris/Biden? She gets a seasoned advisor. Joe gets to stay in Washington.
@@brysonwest93 , never going to happen, Kamala Harris polls even lower than Joe Biden if that’s possible
Harris/Obama is the only way
How about no? Kamala has TWICE as much high level governance experience as Obama did when he was inaugurated.
In fact, she’s done more different types of government work than either Biden or Obama ever did.
Biden and Harris probably picked a short list of VP candidates in 2020. It’s sitting in a cabinet that’s marked _“In Case of 25th Amendment, Break Glass.”_
Biden needs to go home and rest, then maybe do a Member Berries tour with Obama to hype the new generation.
@@Merriwether-w8k Why not Biden/Obama just for the lulz because it's obvious at this point that neither party is serious about fielding a viable and worthy leader. That said, I'd LOVE to see Harris run the train on trump in a debate.
Guys obviously didnt see Bidens North Carolina speach.
No one with any ambition to take over the nomination is going to do anything but be loyal. No matter what they are thinking, they will toe the line. But if Joe had a "bad night" he has let it become a bad week by still not giving any tough one-on-one interviews. There comes a time when you must put your country ahead of your own ambition.
Trump is praying Biden remains the nominee.
I saw a video where he was blustering about Kamala being “worse.” Since he always lies, that means he’s scared of her.
@@irenafarmno one is scared of her. Correction, the Democrats are afraid.
@@irenafarm Either way, Trump is the next president.
@@irenafarm I assume he wanted that video released. Harris will still lose by a wide margin, but less so than Biden.
Not only should Joe not run, he should resign.
No better way to set Kamala up to run!
Never, Ever put Kamala in charge of AMERICA!
@@ShirleyJohnson-xd9vj I want to hear her speech before I make a judgement.
If it's one of the original candidates before Biden stepped in like Elizabeth Warren or Andrew Yang then I would support a replacement.
the Giant Douche versus Turd Sandwich meme will get a lot of run this year
It’s Trump V Biden. Not Obama v Biden.
this is going to be the spin of all spins when they decide to eliminate / go around V.P. Harris at the same time...
Talk about Project 2025 and how american lives are going to change.
Biden is going to talk about it more, Kamala needs to tie Project 2025 and the Abortion debacle together, and get those surrogates out there! And candidates STOP RUNNING AWAY FROM BIDEN! The GOP his hanging with that criminal and rapists, so I don't see why a good man can't have the back of his party that he has worked so hard to bring up.
Let's fix the Joe Biden issue and get someone who can beat Trump.
Sex changes for everybody?
They'll be a lot freer and more prosperous. It'll be great!
@@realCyng It would is literally calling for arresting American citizens...
Open the race up. Throw in BERNIE SANDERS. He can win against Trump.
Oh, let's quit this nonsense. Ronald Reagan told a weird story in his first 1984 debate that turned out to be a scene from one of his movies that he seemed to think really happened. GOP panicked, many called on Reagan to withdraw, the whole rigmarole. Next debate, Reagan made a joke about not wanting to slam Mondale over this "youth", the pearl-twisting ended, and he carried 49 states. Turns out he was in the early stages of dementia at that time, but still managed to finish his 4-year term. As the UK government advised Britons in the depths of WWII: "Keep calm and carry on."
Imagine if the Robert Hur interview were to emerge as an October surprise, should Biden remain in the race.
what I notice is no video, please fix this
I think I saw the squirrel demon blink a few times
If he drops out of the campaign..it follows he must leave the presidency as well
He should step down entirely. Kamala can beat trump, but she needs to be the incumbent president and she needs a few months of running things and everything continuing on without catastrophe.
I think that’s the best option.
It’s sensible and in line with institutional norms. As a bonus, there will be some fun hype over our first Madam President.
I'll offer my vote to whichever candidate drops out.
Biden says he'll click "like" on your comment if you first delete it. Thanks.
Only Bernie sanders can beat trump easy
Nonsense. Too late for Bernie, he will be 83.
@@KMarik So? He can speak better than trump.
@@CBT5777 That’s true, he can. I like him very much, and he is 83 years old.
Where is the video?
Who needs a video? Was he showing charts, graphs and other visual displays?
20:43 This is specious and entirely presumptive. Elaine Kamarck just did an extensive rundown with Ezra Klein on this very topic, and she insists that this is actually not that difficult, that there are a LOT of people within the party, in leadership and otherwise, who know exactly how to do this and would be able to carry it out without any particular confusion or delay. She concedes it would look messy and most pundits wouldn't be able to explain to the public everything that's going on, but she has supreme confidence that this is not beyond the capacity of the current party members to execute perfectly competently. And she would know, being as she is the foremost expert in the world on this country's presidential nomination system, and has herself been a high level advisor on numerous presidential campaigns.
Excellent comment. Judging from the current state of the D.N.C., what would be the most obvious hurdles to get over?
@@PaulWhitcomb-ty6md Getting on the ballot in GA with a Republican Governor.
@@PaulWhitcomb-ty6md Biden stepping down, really. That’s the only piece of this that’s actually really hard. If he simply refuses to step down, that’s the end of this whole conversation. Per Elaine Kamarck, it would appear everything else would more or less happen according to procedure, which yes, DOES have plenty of established precedent and is not some mysterious art permanently lost to history.
I honestly think anyone younger with normal cognitive abilities will beat Trump. In my opinion, Biden and Trump are too old to be running.
Biden/Harris 2024 💙🇺🇸🌈🏳️⚧️
Harris/Obama 2024
@@Merriwether-w8k That equates to Trump/Epstein 2024. No thank you.
I find the insinuations that’s he’s senile by insiders to be distasteful. What I saw was a tired, older man getting frustrated by a lying lunatic. No shame in being old and wise, but it’s good to know when to pass the baton to someone better equipped for the moment. I’m sure it feels unfair.
I think it’s unfortunate, but the debate probably brought into sharp focus what could’ve been more easily written off as minor mistakes earlier. It seems it’s time to step aside. He’s been an excellent president, but his legacy will be forever ruined if Trump is elected.
@@rachels.8051funding a genocide doesn't make an excellent president
Funny how the guy who said people were over reacting by saying Biden woukd drop out is now saying Biden may drop out. These people flip flop more than a tumble weed in Arizona
These certainly are dynamic times.
Why wasn't mitch removed
When his body and mind freeze on camera? Why aren't you talking about loser, because of his constant dementia glitches, becoming president
Mitch's term ends in 2027. Republicans will pull a Dianne Feinstein on Mitch before replacing him.
Keeping the elderly serving to maintain party lines is elder abuse.
Still butthurt Hillary lost?
He is not running for re election in 2025.
your whataboutism is showing. most people with a brain would say that no old person with serious cognitive decline should have their hands on the nuclear button.
I mean, it’s kind of a relief to have a few days off endless Trump toxicity.
If Biden resigns and Kamala takes the Oval Office, we’ll have a few days of fun hype and then we can focus on “wtf what Trump did” again.
FUN LISTENING TO PARTISAN DEMOCRAT MEDIA FRET.
NYT is not an unbiased source on this story. In any case, it's up to Joe. I will respect his decision, either way.
Notice all of the stories about Biden dropping out begin in the conservative eco system. The Republicans are terrified of Biden. They know they will lose to him. The only way they see a victory is if they get the Dem's to tell Biden to drop out.
So surprising and impressive that republicans somehow knew Joe had dementia back in 2020, despite their being no signs…
Keep Joe
The one they should be pushing to quit is that Felon Trump….Biden has my vote no matter what!
Brandonite😂
Some new polls are in the field to determine which other candidates can beat Trump in a general. There is only one candidate that can. An Ipsos/Reuters poll says Michelle Obama beats Trump by 11 points. Every other candidate is losing against Trump, aside from one poll that says Trump and Biden are even (in the popular vote, which means Biden would very likely lose the electoral college). It's basically Michelle Obama or nothing. I very seriously hope that Biden and Michelle both take the obvious course of action and let Michelle be the next Democratic nominee. Democrats basically need to win the popular vote by about +3.5 or +4 in order to barely win the electoral college, and only one person can do that.
No. Wrong. The list of Democrats that would beat trump is long; Warren. Newsom, Whitehouse, Swalwell, Sanders (I), Whitmer, Schiff
Nah that's too third-worldy to have the wife of a previous president assume office. That was Hillary's curse, and she had actual experience.
The polls aren’t really useful because most of the other possible candidates don’t have enough name ID yet. But replacing Biden would be huge news and there would be a concerted effort to elect the Democratic candidate. Trump is a known entity and is deeply disliked. We put forward someone and introduce them to the country. A lot of Americans would be thrilled to have another option.
Michelle Obama is not a politician lol...liberals are huffing glue in these polls, apparently. And she's made it very clear she has NO interest in being president, and she likely would have preferred her husband to be a one-term president if it had been her choice. People really have no idea Michelle's understanding of politics...I've never gotten the impression that she finds it particularly invigorating (unlike Jill Biden, apparently, who really seems to be enjoying the attention right now).
Why on earth would we replace the actual Vice President with someone who’s spent most of the last eight years chilling in Hawaii?
Mrs. Obama has said unequivocally that she wants nothing more to do with politics.
Chaos? Could they not have a healthy level headed debate and show to American people how a healthy democracy can perform. This could be achieved simply by candidates treating each other with respect and excepting defeat with respect. Show American Democrats are a party of intelligent reasonable people, not individuals fighting against each other.