Why Egypt's Economy is on the Brink of Collapse
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 มิ.ย. 2024
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Egypt's seeking its 4th IMF loan amidst financial strain. Past loans didn't solve issues, and with the Gaza conflict ongoing, this loan might only offer temporary relief.
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0:00 Intro
0:54 Egypt’s Economy pre-war
4:22 How the Gaza War has made things worse?
7:25 What happens next?
8:11 Sponsor
A rise in debt-to-GDP ratio from 80% to 97% is not a 17% increase. It's a 21.25% increase. Or a 17 percentage points increase.
In case anyone is confused:
Imagine the GDP is a 100€, the debt changes from 80€ to 97€.
The change in debt is 17€ but the percentage of change/increase would be calculated over 80€ and not a 100€,
Thus the required "percent increase"= (17/80)*100= 21.25
(This is literal middle years stuff)
@@HistoryBuff_0
I think it was just the lack of correct terminology usage - not a lack of understanding.
@@wotermelon_ Probably meant middle school.
@@wotermelon_middle school
@@dinomuhovic6402 Ig, it's grades 6-10 it's called that in IB.
One thing that could help Egypt is ramping up their tourist income by making it more tourist friendly in general. There are so many horror stories floating around about the country and their horrible treatment of foreign visitors. Bad treatment from both local scammers and governmental workers really puts off potential visitors that could benefit from the weak Egyptian pound.
That would require changing the culture...good luck changing arab culture.
How are you going to prevent that with the insane population boom driving the growth in poor people desperate to eek out a living?
Violent police protecting the tourist
Egypt has a massive number of poor people, backed with little education and alot of violent barbaric religion "Islam" results in the most horrible environment for tourists, I lived there for a while, it is not a good place to be in.
Dunno, so many people went to Egypt and most never encountered anything.
Egypt: Man, we really need some money.
Also Egypt: OHHHhHh MAn HoW AbOUt We bUilD A NeW CaPiTAl FOr 120 BiLLiON DolLaRs?
But where should we build it?
With the largest building in Africa and largest flag pole in the world, it's really dick waving
To be fair though they are practicing Keynesianism. When the economcy is in a funk, kickstart it by spending huge sums on infrastructure projects that lead to a lot of jobs. The new capital city is kind of like that, only not investing in roads but in their own clientele. But I can imagine a lot of construction jobs will be created through that.
@@alconomic476 what after the construction will get completed and I've Heard most of the labours are outsourced from countries like China cause Egyptian people lack skills
@@alconomic476 You can't eat concrete.
Egypt's is digging new hole to fill the previous hole.
Precisely yes
حزين عليكي يا بلدي
The mega projects are probably his most easily avoidable mistake.
for some reason, all these "strongmen" always need their "tall buildings" to signify "success" - or whateverthef__k its supposed to signify.. must be a primate thing
At least these seem like reasonable ideas, unlike the crazy stuff in SA
Idk, if you look at any of the plans for the new Admistrative Capital, it seems somewhat similar to the Saudi megaprojects. A lot of big, flashy, and most importantly expensive and impractical buildings for the rich. With urban planning from the last century and no consideration for citizens with lower incomes, I don't see how this will help relieve strain on Cairo.@@nnelg8139
The main issue across the world is USA debt trap diplomacy. The extortionate rates it offers to low income countries through private banks is criminal. Yall wonder why people would rather Chinese loans. They forgave 22 loans last year that they knew African states wouldn’t be able to pay back but when it’s the USA it invades instead.
@@nnelg8139 they arent. now i am no economist but when you have food shortage , energy shortage , unemployment crisis , etc. why would you spend 40 billion USD on a new capital city? he is bragging about how egypt will have the tallest sky scraper and how the city will compete with dubai and how he is going to build an octagone thats bigger than the US's pentagone. but why? this is like someone who is in debt and can barely afford food getting in even more r debt to buy a ferrari.least he could do now is pause the useless projects such as the city
I read that tourism accounts for 10-15% of the economy. Given how important that is, I'd suggest they get the act together and clean house with regard to corruption and bureaucracy. It's a nightmare to get in and out of the country and everyone in Cairo is on the take. The friggin Pyramids are in Egypt. A permanent attraction and moneymaker, but what is the impact if they lose half that because no one wants to go there?
Corruption is probably a bigger problem for the government
corruption is the easiest thing to point out for a problem, but one of the hardest things for a nation to tackle. when the leadership of a nation is corrupt, they will very rarely fight that corruption in a meaningful way. It usualy takes a new leader, or a revolution to change how things are done.
@@kv4648Their whole society are corrupted, no hope really, when everyone tried to cheat everyone, and gain on the other's effort, no one will try to work honesty and live decent life, the tourist who go there will realize they're walking in thieves cities.
they dont know that those corrupt figures are the ones keeping this dictatorial regime afloat the problem isnot high end corruption its embezzling even in your daily tasks its Like no one will helpyou without bribes also he hires some figures who are like gangmobs who forms mini militas incase any uprising occurs@@edwxx20001
Tbh a large drop in tourism is partially linked to it being more dangerous for tourists.
Also Egypt is losing millions thanks to ships not taking suez canal route anymore. If it becomes against Houthis, Egypt will be seen as betraying Palestine and if they support Houthis,Egypt will get completely isolated. They are in a bad fix.
Not letting in Palestinian refugees isn't seen as a betrayal already?
No, for many yes and for many, no. Those who believe in yes, think they should as muslim and arab give them refuge. For no, people think Palestine should suffer but stay there, so that there will be some possibility of their old madness of reclaiming the land, they want them to stay to use them later, and for government they are not in a good economic condition for refugees.@@hofimastah
BILLIONS
@@hofimastahthere is joining Isr ael in the rafah operation, which is not surprising given how he rules Egypt, that would not be betrayal, that's a big F U to the people of Egypt and Muslims .
@@hofimastah no muslim country does?
The Whole Situation Is a complete catastrophic nightmare for Egypt.
The Gaza war is difficult enough.
However the Houthi blockade crisis is proving extremely damaging for the Suez Canal and Egyptian Government revenues.
To the point to make me wonder if Egypt is one of the Houthi's targets?
EGYPT WILL GO BANKRUPT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPANED TO LEBANON SAME ISSUES
It isn't, the Houthis just don't care about hurting innocent bystanders.
@@Poo_Brain_HorseI wonder who the innocents being most hurt by Israel’s attack are. Hmm 🤔
Yes obviously given Egypt’s friendly relationship with the US and Israel.
The Egyptian Dictatorship is innocent?😂@@Poo_Brain_Horse
Egypt's economy would do better if its shopkeepers were less unpleasant and aggressive to tourists. Anecdotal, I know, but two friends who've visited the country recently complained *bitterly* about how horrible the attitude of salespeople is, and will not be visiting again for that reason alone.
True, I had a similar experience and I wouldn't be visiting egypt anytime soon
@wotermelon_ You don't get to survive by being nasty to the customers who are your bread and salt.
When it comes to physically dragging an 80 year old back to your shop, you've lost their future custom. "You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar".
@@wotermelon_ Plenty of people survive without turning to harassment and coercion.
@wotermelon_ I said my evidence was anecdotal, and that it wasn't just one person complaining. I'm sorry for anyone who's hard up; I am skint myself, but courtesy costs nothing.
Even Egyptians have the same experience when trying to visit touristy places in their own country. It’s terrible unfortunately
Public spending needs to be effective, it being huge isnt an issue. It being corrupt is an issue.
@@wotermelon_ The whole point of the new capital was transparently because the political elite were tired of having to occasionally interact with unwashed plebeians, so they wanted a new city for themselves, free from poor people. It would be a lot easier than actually tackling the poverty.
@@wotermelon_Added onto which, a significant part of the NAC is effectivity a city-within-a-city for the exclusive use of the ruling military and their families, while the rest also includes the obligatory phallic compensator skyscraper and a park which would need vast amounts of freshwater to irrigate - so much of it will be of little to no benefit to ordinary Egyptians (and with the high corruption level, if the military and government institutions ever do relocate to the NAC, they likely won't build affordable housing on the vacated plots in Cairo proper).
Exactly, the thing about a larger civil service is that money is staying in the country. It can cycle back through the economy and to the government. It's weird to conflate that with external expenditures.
In saying that if you have a kleptocracy, as most military led governments are, then it's probably getting siphoned out of the country and into personal international bank accounts.
Spending more money than what you have is an issue, and a big one
@@Almirante1741 It's more complicated than that, as most countries run almost permanent deficits.
The key, though, is to not let the deficit get too high outside exceptional circumstances (e.g. recessions, pandemics) and ensure you're in no danger of struggling to both fund day-to-day spending and service debt repayments - otherwise your credit rating goes down (in exceptional circumstance [hello, Greece] to "Junk" rating, and the interest rates on repayment debt start climbing.
If you can't afford to borrow from your own central bank and have to go cap-in-hand to external sources like the IMF, you're in deep piles of poo. If you then have to go back to the IMF for a loan to service your existing debt to the IMF...
Just returned from a holiday to Egypt, banks were giving about $1/E£30 while shop keepers were all asking if you had Euros, GBP, or dollars, and offering $1/E£45. We were offered 65-70 Egyptian pounds per British pound a few times as well.
Never deal with the banks in Egypt to convert dollars. The government and banks are thieves and are ruining the country. The black market rate for the US dollar is over 60 Egyptian pounds these days, which is double what the bank would give out. Everyone in the country follows the black market rate. That is why the stores were offering 45 pounds per dollar as they are still able to make profit on the black market. The dollar is also getting harder to get in Egypt. Such a beautiful country but the army and corruption are ruining it. 😢
Yep, I was in Egypt 2 yars ago. It was the same. USD and the EURO are pretty much the unoffical currency. The Egyption pund was not yet devalued but was still not wanted. I have egyption collegues that I talk to in our Ciro office - they say that if you dont have USD or Euros , you cant feed your family. The pound now is not worth the paper its printed on.
Did you have a good time there? Has the inflation made things super cheap?
@@drbennyboombatz9195for foreigners now i can say that this is the cheapest time to visit egypt you can easily exchange dollars for 45-50 egp pound (unofficial rate) so if you aren't too annoyed annoying by salespeople or having an experienced guide or an egyptian friend you will be very pleased if you are into resorts and relaxing you can find very cheap and great 5 ,4 star hotels in south sinai its great their as an egyptian i prefer it to cairo
$ is around 60 now on black market. Shopkeepers buy it from tourists per 45 and sell usd per official black market rate, which is twice more than the official rate. It's almost impossible to buy $ in the bank with official rate, so consider black market rate as the real one.
Who could have thought that digging a new canal and building a new capital would be expensive?
its expensive sure but they dont expect shit like gaza war
the real problem is not actually with the mega projects itself , but with the huge amounts of corruption and bad management, sometimes, no management at all
all these projects are done by companies owned by military generals or the military itself (NSPO)
@@ahmadalkahky the mega project isn't a problem? You're probably one of them rich Egyptians.
@@cyzodid they expect peace in the Middle East lol?
@@invertedaura1986he does have a point
Egyptian here, the country has been bankrupt. Citizens aren't allowed to withdraw US dollars, and they resort to the black market and pay more than double the bank rate you see online.
Food prices are starting to equal that in the west and sometimes more even with the substantially lower wages, the country is screwed.
You screwed yourself the moment Sisi came up. The entire Population should have mobilised to take up arms, no matter the price. But people backed him. Dr Mursi would have never allowed this to happen like that.
i agree as the famous statement your reap what you sow while i didnot agree with morsi and the muslimbrotherhood the moment sisi appointed himself for presidential electancy it should have been a full blown revolution@@sinanroyal5359
I thought food was subsidized? Or is it just for a portion of people?
shut up silly kid@@sinanroyal5359
@@sinanroyal5359 Agreed, that was the 1 yr of freedom and hope we had.
make a video about economic corruption in Morocco , it's one of the world's most corrupt economies ,a former US ambassador was quoted to say "the country is so corrupt , only 3 people control the economy , the king the king's advisor and the king's friend"
"friend"😂
Islamic Desert Nations with 4-4 fertility rate and almost no democracy are bound to fail.
These people need to control their population
The kings advisor is a chew
@@homer1273based
It is corrupted but its doing quiet well actually compared to other african countried,its top 4 and the other top 3 are nigeria,egypte,south africa and the three of them are suffering way more then morroco,either stability or security or economy wise.
Egypt ancient civilization huge history very important country with wonderful people its a honour to call them Good friends ..the economies in every country have problems not only in Egypt 🇬🇷💞🇪🇬
Ancient Egyptians were very different people.
Not very different but different languages and religions@Stoddardian
I think this video failed to mention the corruption situation in egypt, no matter what resources or opportunities egypt might have if they don't get rid of their corruption then the country is doomed
There is a running joke here about eating " bridges" tells you all you need to know 😂
Corruption is endemic in Arab nations, no magic wand can change that.
this video did mention corruption, twice lol
eitherway you can have a decent economy even with corruption. look at russia , romania , etc. they arent exactly great economies but they arent having an economic crisis
literally first thing he mentions as the root cause for high spendings
I have been there on holiday twice but not planning a third time. They need to sort themselves out. Being mobbed by traders that wont leave you alone was most annoying. It seemed on my last trip they were more interested in their Russian guests. Last year was Cyprus and it was fantastic this year Sicily because, why not .
especially since the arabs who live in egypt now, didnt even build the pyramids. youre basically visiting a giant tourism centre surrounded by a desert full of muslims. the original egyptians are long gone..
@@obiwankenobi661 true.
The main issue across the world is USA debt trap diplomacy. The extortionate rates it offers to low income countries through private banks is criminal. Yall wonder why people would rather Chinese loans. They forgave 22 loans last year that they knew African states wouldn’t be able to pay back but when it’s the USA it invades instead.
@@obiwankenobi661What happened to them?
@@obiwankenobi661 thats not true. this is a racist dogwhistle that got debunked over 300 times "all brown people are arab barbarians who cant build anything" is the point you are indirectly trying to make
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_history_of_Egypt#:~:text=The%20analyses%20revealed%20that%20Ancient,component%20found%20in%20modern%20Egyptians.
you could say that Egypt is approaching a 4th intermediate period.
There was no Al-Sisi photo to use in the thumbnail? That head was way to big 😂
😂😂
😂😂😂😂
CC is beautiful and perfect in any case
They need to stop loaning money to countries that never paid back their previous loans see Argentina who never paid back 3-4 loans. Greece payback theirs they had to do tax enforcement, get rid of state owned companies, and cut welfare benefits. Stop giving loans to countries that don’t follow the IMF & world bank rules.
Yes but, i wouldnt call Argentina good, it still one last step from again total fail
EU has bankrupted Greece, don't get confused
@@BOZ_11 Greece bankrupted themselves by borrowing too much money and their tax revenue was nonexistent! Their economy is doing great now they privatize most state owned companies and gotten tax revenues up!
@@vashonm BS, The ECB puts arbitrary fiscal caps on all Euro carrying nations, and the only way to surpass this nonsense cap is to sell treasuries, which is like running up a credit card. No real nation, no sovereign nation has to do that, since e.g. China, UK, Japan, USA, etc can spend fiscally without issuing a single treasury.
Argentina on good footing? What are you on?
Going from 80% to 97% is NOT a 17 increase it is a 17 percentage point increase. That may seem minor, but going from 5% to 25% would be called a 20% increase when it's actually a 400% increase.
the new capital is just that important, they need to get away from the poors
But they're all still stuck in that cult of the towel 😂
@@guyman1570 the cult of the towel has outlasted all other cults. Christianity died in the anglosphere, and now all your daughters are on lonely-fans, for $5.99
I wouldn't be surprised if Egypt's 'new administrative capital' becomes an empty ghost town.
the Idea that they would need to ship in all the "help" every day and then ship it out again seems like it will lead to problems.
@@edwxx20001 just trying to copy Dubai's stupidity tbh lol.
@@edwxx20001Could you explain what you mean with this?
@@RK-cj4oc the houseing in the new megaproject is only designed for the government and their families, there is no affordable housing or secondary housing projects for low to middle income people. All the low income jobs that come with with a city of that size, from maintenance staff, gardeners, cooks, and cleaners will have to take mass transit from their homes every morning and return on the trains at night.
the mega project does include a rail line from Ciro.
It's literally only to """protect""" the government from the people in Cairo because people can actually revolt against it.
Egypt Pakistan and Argentina are the most loyal of IMF borrowers
Argentina might be throwing a sledgehammer through that borrowing cycle though. Millei is crazy, but he did cut a ton of subsidies almost over night.
@@TeutathisArgentina is a developed middle to high income country unlike the Pakistan and Egypt that you mentioned.
Maybe wasting your entire economy on a pointless new capital city wasn’t such a good idea.
Then again people said the same thing when my country built their capital and it is a flourishing city today, so who knows
Our capital is Abuja btw, nowhere near perfect but still the nicest city in Nigeria
Brasilia? Canberra? Washington?
Maybe they failed on deciding on the right scale of the project.
A well designed city can facilitate better collaboration, industry, services and education by weaving all of those directly into the fabric of the planned city.
Indonesia
Arap logic
Please note there is a vast difference between Indonesia and Egypt - Indonesia is exporting a vast number of goods and earning money. Its capital is sinking so it must create a new one. Egypt has neither!
Great analysis! You've succinctly captured Egypt's economic challenges, especially with the IMF loans and the impact of the Gaza conflict. Insightful breakdown!
Egyptian here.
You did a great job explaining the situation.
This is wild that you described Sisi's rise to power without mentioning that he massacred 500 democracy activists
“Democracy Activists”
Thats one way to refer to the Muslim Brotherhood’s self-admitted armed rioters
Well, nobody would care or bother to protest about it since you can't blame Israel
The USA as in the cold war they would rather an ally bloodthirsty dictator over independent from an opposing ideology (islamists in Egypt case)
That’s actually not true and a misleading comment
@@lost_in_stuff Always trying to put the blame on the US ain’t you?
I haven't studied economics but it always seems to me that printing more money and burning your foreign exchange always leads to economic problems.
Austerity also seems bad though. Just cutting off spending and no longer investing in your workforce and public services leads to social instability and a less skilled workforce.
Has an imf loan ever helped anyone. It just seems like a wealth extraction tool.
The imf tends to only loan money to countries that are already financial dumpster fires.
India in 1991. It forced the economy to liberalize, which led to better growth rates. But that's because the country was heavily socialist before, so the solution was pretty straightforward. Austerity and bringing in more free-market policies. IDK if it'd work if a country isn't heavily socialist/communist in terms of its policies.
The imf loans would most definitely help but the countries who receive them lack the political fortitude to stop the corruption endemic throughout their public spending. Sometimes a countries entire political regime is held up by the strongman dictator continuing to pay off their underlings who keep them in power.
I haven't studied economics either but:
1) Devaluing your currency is a common strategy in countries with a focus on exports since it makes your goods more competitive (that's what Italy used to do pre-Euro and China does it right now).
It is also used to generate inflation and dilute your debt (if it is denominated to be paid in your currency).
2) Austerity should be common, there is no non-state organization that can live with the levels of debt that a government manages. People have complaints about austerity because Germany has made all the bad decisions possible in a short period of time and they say that austerity is to blame for this. Austerity has a lot of positive effects such as keeping inflation low, opening very cheap lines of credit and the mere fact of not making your debt grow is more than enough.
3) The IMF has helped several countries in times of difficulty, it's just that the countries that have been able to repay the debt have known how to balance their economies. The real problem is when a country does not make any reforms to its economy.
The cases in which it is sadly misused are:
1) Most countries are not willing to make a fiscal adjustment to avoid having a deficit and prefer to go into debt or print money to cover this deficit (obviously this increases the debt and generates inflation)
2) Germany took a path of austerity and did everything possible to be ineffective, Germany outside of coal does not have natural resources to obtain clean energy and made the intelligent decision to... close its nuclear power plants, but don't worry that it has an arrangement with cheap natural gas from Russia and ... decided to close all diplomatic ties with Russia after the war and all this led to ... reopening the coal plants (holy god sometimes I think that my Latin American banana republic has better plans for energy management than Germany)
3) The IMF is too lax when it comes to providing financing, they genuinely should not be giving it to Egypt but they are almost forced to because an economic collapse in Egypt would simply make Suez unusable and generate migrations that Europe could not support.
As a Pakistani who recently moved to Karachi, I'm bearing the brunt of economic hardship and am suffering mentally and in other areas because of the disastrous and poorly thought-out decisions made by my corrupt government. I wish my beautiful Egyptian brothers and sisters strength and the very best of luck. May our countries both prosper! ❤🤍💛🖤💚🤍
As An Egyptian I Really appreciate you content And Watch all your videos
Things are a Lil better the inflation is a little down and tourism is Great in Hurdaga and Aswan. I Don't like The sisi Regime but Im being Honest But the economy will take a long time to come back to 2019 level, All my Love to tldr
Things aren't better at all, we just got a small USD injection from a deal with emirates. The EGP is still slowly collapsing. At this rate, we will never recover back to pre-pandemic levels
What's sisi's political ideology ?
@@Im_Z_4747 an ideology no one know about he isn't neutral , Islamic , Zionist,avarge African war loard, capitalist he is like a wosre version from moses pharaoh
@@xenoamr He is coping hard.
@@xenoamr
The egyptian pound was always collapsed, egypt correctly admitted it was collapsed and stopped wasting foreign currencies defending it
4:30 The Tamar field is no where near "off the coast of Gaza", it's much further north than that. The gas field off the coast of Gaza is Gaza Marine and is currently undeveloped.
Basically the assault on Gaza and Lebanon is all about land and energy theft
The main issue across the world is USA debt trap diplomacy. The extortionate rates it offers to low income countries through private banks is criminal. Yall wonder why people would rather Chinese loans. They forgave 22 loans last year that they knew African states wouldn’t be able to pay back but when it’s the USA it invades instead.
"Why would an IMF loan not work for Egypt?" Probably similar reasons as to why IMF loans have practically never worked.
That's just not true
the answer to the question of "will the Gaza war bankrupt Egypt?" is a resounding NO , Egypt was ALREADY launched head first into bankruptcy by the government years ago .
that is very well articulated information, from an egyptian
Incompetent and corrupt governments and mega-projects.
Can you name a more iconic duo?
Politics is the entertainment division of the military industrial complex ~ Frank Zappa.
Ignoring two important factors: the first, despite Egypt's difficult economic situation, it invests huge sums in its mighty army. In the last decade, the sums invested in it are astronomical, including massive infrastructure in preparation for war against Israel. Secondly, the Egyptians have a parallel economy that is run by the Egyptian army. This is an economy parallel to the official economy, and belongs entirely to the Egyptian army
Talking about the army is taboo
No .. Egypt isn't planning to go to war with Israel lol
Pure ignorance
They spend money not to use their army in any foreign conflict. Army men take commission for every sale
Egypt and Pakistan army sucking the treasury of funds and you wonder why they struggle
The real inflation in the shops is around 120-150% and the prices are changing almost on daily basis
bruh I was talking about egypt with my mom for a while, and this video from my favourite news youtube channel just popped up.
Your phone listens to you talk. Don’t squeeze the bishop with your phone nearby or it will start recommending PH or OF stuff.
@@starventurewhat is OF, btw I don't have a phone, and I don't watch ph (I'm a young teen)
@@activatewindows7415 OF is like PH but individualized. It is also a deaddrop site, so use caution.
@@activatewindows7415W 🗿
RE: Gaza refugees, if there's one thing Egypt and Israel agree on, it's that they don't want Palestinians in their country.
Defaulting of Sisi debt means repossess of Suez canal to IMF, and resurrections of Nasser from his grave
The problem for him is the "sunk cost" of the new capital. It was way to expensive project for the elites but it has reached a point in which they cant stop it. They have to pur even more money they dont have to get some recovery from the sales otherwise it will be an endless money sink (the interest on the loans for it will kill Egypt).
Dreams 😂😂😂😂
You called it my friend the pound was just devalued again! It's an official economic crisis. Well done on your analysis and accurate forecasting.
Fees for transiting the canal have also been going up and that has upset shippers and ship operators.
In the thumbnail you got the flag of Egypt wrooooong!!!
🇪🇬🇪🇬
May as well. Egypt, like all dictatorships is a mascade. Thank you uncle Sam and Vladimir Vladimirovich Poo tin
Isn't it called a 'war' when both sides fight?
I thought Egypt was ditching the dollar?
Yes for trade currency, as well as Nigeria and Ethiopia.
9% of GDP in interest payments and 60% of public spending! That premium is insane...
Frankly based on the billions the US has paid Egypt, this is already paid for.
Corruption is rampant in Egypt, i didnt worked there but i have seen Egyptians working there in saudi who say this...army is to protect country when army starts running country this is the case, another case is Pakistan
Politics is the entertainment division of the military industrial complex ~ Frank Zappa.
Compliments on the interesting podcast, in my opinion the very high expenditure on arming and maintaining a large army should have been mentioned.
O dear all this means is more tourist scams and the closing of the canal
You should link videos that you mention in the description/pinned comments
6:45 Looking at the fingers I for the moment thought that video is generated by AI 😁
One point that added insult to injury is the biggest source of foreign currency is Egyptians living abroad which are considerable portion of the GDP. Those transfers have almost completely stopped now with a huge difference between the official USD price and the official price.
excellent, so the plan has worked
Literally ended at the point this became relevant
With a functional tourism industry, a lot of these problems are solved.
not realy tourism kinda sucks for nation biulding
No one build a nation of 100 million people with tourism.
@@Mark-gd2timexico?
@@tom_demarco 🤨 no definitely Mexico isn't build on tourism and it's not even that rich.
All so that they can be the next Thailand or Brazil with half of their women available for the rest of the world for the right price? I'm not sure how far that pig will fly in a Muslim nation.
Why should I believe or think I could learn anything from such youngsters as you guys? Well, that's what I thought at first but I couldn't find anything to disagree with and I learned a few things. It was pretty good and well spoken. Kudos.
Every countries economy seems to be spiraling down UK, JP, China, HK, S. Korea... now the question is if everybody's in debt who wins out of this?
Bankers 💰 🤑 💸 💲 🪙
@@InesElm-dj9tn what if everyone is bancrupt and cant pay the debt?
Going to be a lot of unhappy countries
Imagine the USA telling China. Hey about that debt.. yeah we ain't owe you shit. Going to scratch that. Lol they'd be so pissed
This has happened in history before, the usual result is massive war unfortunately...
The political elites who, through COVIDflation, plundered the people savings and used them for their political gains.
Thet should sell one of those pyramids to the British museum 🤣
Don't give them ideas...
This didn't really run well with the video thumbnail. The only tie to the conflict in Gaza is "that one oil platform off the coast". That's an almost insignificant factor in the grand scheme of things. It also mentioned Houthi attacks shutting down commerce in the Red Sea, but a) didn't put a number on it (same with the oil platform also not having a number put on it) and b) is a wider Yemen/Houthi issue, not a Gaza issue.
great economic analysis from a country where people really know stuff about the economy and obviously choose their policy wisely.
The main problem is not suez canal decline but laxk of trust , bad regulation, corruption which lead to lack of confidence of Egypt outside workers and less of money transfer to Egypt in addition to all what you siad
And Bright Egyptians also leave Egypt. I don't know any government hated so much by its citizen.
Like with Lebanon and in some way Jordan, Egypt has an ultra-rich neighbor next door whose people would be more than happy to invest and spend tourist money there. Perhaps that neighbor could even give a direct grant to Egypt in exchange for some relatively minor political help. Except, they hate this neighbor so much that they'd rather suffer economic collapse than "collaborate". Figures.
they are dealing with them indirectly its a proxy through the UAE isnot it suprising that UAE is buying bunch of different lands in egypt and leasing ports
Qatar/UAE are super rich not the other country they received 300 billion western aid
Jordan isn't really fighting Israel. They just "talk their sentiments against Israel" but are actually not that hostile towards them and instead cooperate with them.
@@ReallyRandomMe It's the same with Egypt, but neither country is exploiting the nearly-unique advantage of being a poor country next to a rich country. This is done solely for ideological reasons. Mexico and the US have a much smaller wealth gap, and Mexico is still using its geographical position next to the US as much as they can.
There is not a single instance of World Bank or IMF loans ever increasing wealth in the recipient nation, outside of the politicians of course
That watch looks so uninspired with probably a cheap Miyota quartz movement, mineral glass without anti-reflective coating, rolled metal bracelet links with a cheap buckle. And it's also to big for your wrist.
This is mega fucked..... when even the Chinese jump ship on u! LOL
Remember when Israel demolished the entire Egyptian air force in a single day?
Egypt should really back down. They don't want it
Sisi is working with Israel and the US. No war is going to happen.
Israel demolished it by surprise attack very unlikely for that to ever happen again.
This is not 67 or 73
They do have some solid experience with mega projects though... that new city will be a tourist destination in 4500 years...
If Al-Sisi had really been so popular, he wouldn't have needed to prosecute opposition leaders. He never was genuinely popular. He was just the guy with the guns, whom everyone else feared.
Oh no! The Egyptian government needs to fix everything! I started to worry when Egypt's economy is falling again. May Allah bless Egypt for helping innocent people and those who rescued Palestinians. 😥
Allah helped a lot of ecomies...... hasn't he......... Islamic law is well known by economists for having enormous problems like harming development of serous industries.
@@Mark-gd2ti😂😂😂 lmao
Will this be Indonesia in 5 years?
Unneccessary spending in building a brand new capital city, led by a president from the military...quite uncanny similarities.
No, Indonesia has some excellent fundamentals and good natural resources, quite a lot going for it. Egypt has oil, and not as much as they'd like. It's not exactly a diverse and complex growing economy, and their reliance on imports for food is a huge issue (and also extremely stupid, given that they dammed the Nile just to get the fertile consistent land). Indonesia is a net exporter for food, as I recall. So no, very different footing all around.
Bruh Jakarta is literally sinking, and you call it unnecessary spending?
@@shwanmirza9306 I'm very much not Indonesian but I heard especially at the time they could have spent the money to shore up and build up Jakarta. Do you have an opinion on that?
@@urbanarmoryThey did build a wall in Jakarta against the floods, but it's still not enough. The Indonesian government has wanted the capital city to be in the centre of the country for economic and stability reasons
@@shwanmirza9306 Jakarta (and even Javanese) overpopulation is a real issue, but the administrative capital could've moved to cities with already existing infrastruture outside Java island.
Most successful changing of capital cities happened where the new capital city is an existing city with existing infrastructure (e.g.: Ankara from Istanbul in Turkiye, New Delhi from Calcutta in India, Berlin from Bonn in Germany, Putrajaya from KL in Malaysia)
It's funny that although I'm Egyptian i don't get any of this information in any Egyptian or arbic media ANY MEDIA...
Thanks for making this video but quick note: what’s happening in Gaza is not a ‘war’ in the traditional sense - it’s the Israeli apartheid committing war crimes against a native Palestinian population comprised mostly of women and children. War involves 2 armies fighting - this is not the case there at all.
i si sisi, i click
After the revolution in 2011, Egypt actually became stable with the election of Morsi in 2012, the first democratic president in its history with 52% of the populous vote.
However, just 1 year later there was a coup led by Sisi. Millions of supporters of Morsi stayed in Rabaa square for ~2 months protesting until Sisi's army massacred thousands of them and imprisoned 10s of thousands more.
After that coup and until today, Egypt has been in crisis and instability. Sisi has failed on all fronts. He's getting loans and invested billions of dollars into infrastructure projects that don't help Egyptians and is selling islands and lands in Egypt to foreign nations to fund his madness.
This ongoing economic crisis is just yet another example of his failure to run the country.
Just to show how "popular" Sisi is, he won his "election" with a landslide 97% of the populous vote... Those 3% were mostly invalid ballot papers 🙂
My family is an immigrant family to Egypt since 1987 when it was a real nice growing country - and from 2018 we are suffering blocking our belongings and savings that its lost during the last 3 years and we cant get out ....
now the prices growing crazy and very high that most the citizens cant go for their lives and there is no fixes from CC government at all .
Egypt is a trap for any Savings or investments as full of Hate
Maybe if they made sure that one can go to Kair and go sightseeing without getting shouted at every few seconds would be cool
Argentina remains goated
And if Egypt does collapse, any bold man with a certain set of skills can carve out his of fiefdom in that fallen realm.
Not me obviously, but someone might.
YOU'VE SAID THE SAME THING, please just say smth original
I might, worth a shot to be a warworld, doesnt even seem that hard.
General Aladdin can
Fredonia. We will export sand at below market prices and corner the market. Palace (Coleman tent) guard will be all female recruited from Scandinavian.
On the negative side we will have to import water and toilet paper.
@@fastfreddy3103desert sand is useless compared to beach sand
Graat video.
Egypt🇪🇬: Man.... We really need some money , the economic situation is not the best
Also Egypt🇪🇬: Well boys , it's time to build a new futuristic city that will be Worth 120 billion dollars.
The new capital is mostlly to centralize power and make it make harder for anotther coup to happen and protect the junta.
How such an ancient country in doldrums because of
That ancient country of pharoahs is long gone. It's different now
ancient country? by that logic UK is also thousands of years old because they have stonehenge.
@@rizkyadiyanto7922 that's too different things dude Egypt history is just something else England at its peak was colonial country not seen as something good and marvelous.
@@rizkyadiyanto7922 dumbass.
@@pipipupu5104pyramids were built by slaves over centuries, wouldn’t call that good either
It’s almost like all the new city construction was a waste after all. Can’t hide from the peoples problems by “moving” the capital.
No one wants to have Egypt falling. We're talking about 120 millions Egyptians.
Originally the British owned the canal. Maybe an offer to buy up debt in exchange for a portion of toll profits for a period of time? As a US ally and a historical defender of free commerce this would help Brittan (and in part help US) recoup Navy costs. You know a navy, the thing Egypt would be deploying to the red sea if they were capable of defending their interests.
UK is failing and they realized they were only rich due to their colonial escapades and racketeering money. This could be a win win but I highly doubt egypt would sell a single share of the Canal since they shed alot of blood for it.
Hey as a arab who kept up with the arab spring, egyptians definitely did not support the military coupe and sisi wasnot popular at all.
Unchecked population growth is another cause of Egypt’s owes. In 1950 there were 21 million Egyptians, now there are 114 million! This burden the economy of that country simply can’t bear. It is growing at 2% annually increasing pressure on fragile finances. Many ills the country suffers like corruption, thuggery, breakdown of law and order, religious extremism, low productivity etc stem from burdensome population. All the countries in the Middle East suffer from exploding population. Those with oil endowment have managed to survive, some have managed to prosper with wise investments and economic activity. But those living beyond their means like Egypt have difficult time ahead.
It seems interesting that their food subsidies haven't hardly changed and don't seem all that significant. Yet the Black Sea war is the main external impact. The rest of this seems like it is internal to Egypt or at least regional issues.
U missed some important points like massive military spending & form of state capitalism were military crowding out private sector
what does the president of Mexico have to do with Egypt?
The funny thing is that Egyptians actually called Sisi "Al Meksiiki(The Mexican) to avoid censorship so Biden was right in a way lol
Joe biden
also is there a country for which IMF loans have worked?
I dunno. Is it the new capital built on the middle of desert or the big canal also in the midle of desert?or just regular coruption? Or the 3 together. 😅
Egypt should have done a far better job, to put it mildly, at preventing the arrival of deadly weapons directly to hands of Hamas
No
@@godzillaworks4585 they should have let even more weapons into the Gaza strip?? The video just saids the war is turning them broke
@@danield2836 stay out of our Business Daniel
Egypt 🇪🇬 must build new pyramids! 😳
And make sure each one is 1km high .
@@Adam-wg2rf Id like to see the material that could build a 1KM high pyramid NGL.
@@JathraDH UAE did build a 1km tall tower so a pyramind will cost but we can build one and it will not be hard just costly
@@Adam-wg2rf Building a 1KM high tower where the upper 1/3 of it is basically a pencil is an entirely different prospect than building a 1KM high pyramid which has probably several hundred thousand times the volume.
They are not the same problem remotely.
@@JathraDH like i said it can be done it will just cost a lot, lot, lot of money .
information for who's interested
The debt to GDP is Double cuz the current or announced is for the bank USD price which is 1 usd = 31 but the real value which we pay for is 1 usd = 60-72 egp
im not saying this is the only reason for our current economic issue but the army is controlled the economy but most of army income do NOT include in egyption GDP
and since the army is in the economy any investors can't compete let me give u TLDR most of egyption have 1-3 years army u have to serve but these days u dont train on weapons u go to factories so basically army doesn't need to pay salary (it's like 5 dollar monthly for each "worker" aka soldier) and they dont need to pay insurance or anything that's why most of egypt investors like sawiras family "billionaires" left egypt
there's alot more but would be too long
and TBH beside all of that it's not ONLY goverment mistake it's mindset of old people basically average egyption is looking to get hired by goverment and he sorted for life not as much as competitive people dont work on them self but that did change for the younger generation who's already fleeing the country
it is not the Gaza war that is bankrupting Egypt, but the bad and stupid economic decisions made by those in government and the enormous investments in pharaonic projects that have no long-term economic utility (such as the hundreds of billions of dollars pumped into building a new capital, instead of to use that money for investments, attracting large companies, creating jobs, road and railway infrastructure and others like how Morocco does for example which is a model to follow of how a state should proceed)
At the same time, Iraq pays all international monetary debts
Well, A) It was already in a shit position after the revolution/coup for al-Sisi, then B} they spent a bunch of money upgrading Suez Canal, followed by D} they built a new Capital for no apparent raisin, and Finalement | They have to construct a new base to hold the troops and supplies that they are going to station in order to fend off the ISR forced PLO incursion at the same time that nobody is using the Suez Canal b/c the Houthis are threatening commercial shipping.
How'd I do?
you forgot to mention the main problem of every african country: population growth. with egypts insane population growth its impossible to find any solution.
it will be solved everything is getting more expensive plus things like free healthcare is being removed so they are literally hoping the people who live in poverty die@@MrNukedawhales
@@yassinhafez1337 free healthcare is just another one of these al-sisi projects. its brand new.. and noone knowns how to finance it. there is no such thing as "free" healthcare. someone has to pay for it... usually throught sth called "taxes", which egyptians arent paying or "avoiding". you simply cannot have "free" services, when the citizens dont pay taxes.
"A professor at Cairo University, estimates that the informal, or black economy employs approximately 10 million people in the country, with half of those jobs being year-round occupations. Around 85 percent of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the country are thought to be informal. Meanwhile, tax revenues in Egypt have fallen from a high of 25 percent of GDP in 1977 to 12.5 percent of GDP in 2015, according to World Bank data."
secondly, noone wants poor people to die, just to reproduce less... or reproduce at a pace they can afford to support.
But they have money to build an entirely new Capital right ?
4th loan in the last decade, yep definitely not helping is it, good money after bad.
The canal seems pretty Suz.