What should be the price of 10 year old German Single Malt? Comparing 2 such bottlings from Elsburn

Elsburn 10 year old Dark Side in comparision with Elsburn 10 year old Distillery Edition German Single Malts
ELSBURN - Exclusive Edition - Dark Side 2024 - Sherry Cask Matured 10 year old Cask Strength with 57,3%
verses
Elsburn 10 year old Distillery Edition Batch 001 from 2024 with 48,0%

[@prestonw3878]

I have tried the Eifel German whisky and thought it was fantastic. I think generally a 10 year old should not be more than $100. Very interesting about evaporation rates. I think this information should be on the label for single cask whiskys, but I have to admit if I was a whisky maker, it seems like this would just be more work to calculate. Cheers!

[@WhiskyJason1]

Totally agree!

[@jbar6284]

Hi Jason, I think the angels share aspect is a very important perspective. Unfortunately I think your loose use of multiplication of the years, although an approximation, becomes rather/increasingly misleading because it's linear rather than compounding. Here's some maths:
India/Taiwan, 10%: 6.58 =LOG(0.5)/LOG(0.9)
Scotland, 2%: 34.31 =LOG(0.5)/LOG(0.98)
USA, 6%: 11.2 =LOG(0.5)/LOG(0.94)
Germany, 5%: 13.51 =LOG(0.5)/LOG(0.95)
I think from those figures, though, that using 50% loss of the cask's contents is a bit high, as there aren't very many Scotch single malts with 34+ years age stated.
Using 40% loss, i.e. 60% of cask remaining, for Scotland gives ~25 years--25.29--with the others:
India/Taiwan: 4.85
USA: 8.26
Germany: 9.96
So a 25yo single malt from Scotland, on that basis, would/should equate to roughly a 10yo from Germany. If the theory is applicable. If the loss rates are accurate approximations.
The source for the above functions is a site called calculator soup... or the high school maths classes we've likely all long forgotten.
I don't normally watch your (in English) videos for German whiskies because they have no presence in my market, but I was tempted by your, in my view very justifiable, title/question about price.😉
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Given that the loss rate in Germany is 2.5x the loss rate in Scotland, should their prices be 2.5x those of Scotch?
Do the implications of loss rates help explain, or do they simply further expose, the pricing pattern seen in e.g. Scotch single malts, e.g. when one compares the prices of 12yo, 15yo, 18yo, 21yo, etc.
Given that the "angel's share" is an (averaged) fixed percent per year, the whisky loses less (on average) each successive year. That would imply that successive years' age should become less expensive, i.e. the 21st year should cost less than the 10th year did, etc. But that is nearly the opposite of the pricing pattern one sees in the single malt market.

[@ziiro91]

I would really like to buy the 10yo Distillery Edition, but 135€ for a 10y 48% whisky is just way too much money.

[@WhiskyJason1]

maybe - but there is hardly any 10 year German single malt