Kothay ache, “Gachhe kathal Gonfe tel“ ! | Extrapolation Bias

#bengali #decisionmaking #mentalmodel #higherorderthinkingskills #extrapolationbias
The habit/practice of predicting the future based on current and past data or events, without accounting for risks factors is, in short, considered as extrapolation bias. A true understanding of this mental model can be helpful in not only investments but also living a happy life. Extrapolation bias compels oneself to operate based on move forward based on a rear-view mirror rather than using a forward-looking approach. This phenomenon is used by most financial influencer propagating mutual fund and index fund advices where they use past performance and accurate predictors of the future.
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