I guve this combination of guest, host & callers (especially Joe), AAA grade for their expertise, polite manner & thought-provoking questions respectively. Thank you to all.
Dr. Lacy Hunt is obviously a highly intelligent economist and just as importantly a first class man. I could listen to him speak for hours on end. He’s has no political agenda and is just giving economic data without spin.
As long as Wall Street continues to use creative financial formulas to boost algorithms, most will disregard Hunt's data proven thesis. It's human nature to believe good news rather than bad news. Life would become too discouraging. The TRUTH is painful 😒
What learn from the internet, is nobody learns from the internet. You should take a few moments and research Mr Hunts last 3 years of calls for a bond bull market. He cost investors 50%.
A very good point brought out in the last question by one of those Brilliant listeners, and which Dr Hunt addressed was: Yes, rates appear to be coming down. But - many of those who are desiring refinancing soon are no longer in the advantageous Credit category that they were previously in 2 years ago! Rates may indeed drop - but they may no longer qualify for those lower rates. And for the consumer? Even with Good credit, an 8% loan is about the best one can hope for when buying a vehicle than has meanwhile become more expensive. The exuberant expectation therefore of Happy days ahead once the Fed lowers rates, may be the just a silver lining masking a dark oppressive cloud.
How's Lacy's long bond call working out? I was pretty interested in his story, till it took a 30% chunk out of what I put into it. It looks like Lacy is saying that if globalization goes down, then the US goes down with it, but China is falling apart, and the US GDP is up 5%. He and every other bear in 2023 are looking like a bunch of clowns.
Because of the insightful questions from your audiences, this is one of the best interviews I've seen with the remarkable Dr. Lacey Hunt. Thank you very much for this opportunity
The Greater Seattle area has a huge amount of multi-family housing that will be all coming into the market at the same time in the next year or two. It will be welcome for all the renters who have seen huge increases in rent over the past few years since they were unfrozen.
Multi family housing is confusing, do you mean apartment buildings? If so, I’m sure a lot of single ppl live in them not just families, which actually seems unlikely due to space restrictions.
@@antpoo It's a lot of apartment buildings and a lot of town homes. But the amount of apartments is kind of impressive. They are popping up all over the city. So are the townhome lots where they turn a one or two house lot into 3-6 units. Seattle was way behind on building though. If you look at the zoning laws it was only within like the past 10 or so they changed the zoning restrictions. Up until that point it was zoned for something insane like 90% single family housing.
@@antpoo Also, it's the whole Greater Seattle area. I passed by a place in Renton that was a monumental build of like 6 apartment buildings with hundreds of units.
@@geoffgjof this is horrible, the chase to stay on top of GDP growth will completely ruin our living standards. They will pack us like sardines to keep extracting their returns
@@geoffgjof these type of HUGE complexes now popping up in EVERY major US city, remind me of ghettos I saw outside major european cities. 15 min cities. How to be happy living in a tiny cube? ready to pop a happy pill laced w fentanyl.
Multi-family overbuild: downtown Seattle where 30-story posh condo / rentals went up like mushrooms while neighborhoods (eg., 3rd and Pike) deteriorated to the extent that they're no-go zones after dark...
As long as they can convince us that GDP & Employment is still rising (as they did 4/5) markets will take off. It's only when channels like Nobody Special Finance takes the time to break down the employment data (full time workers vs part time workers) that we can understand how Wall Street reports misleading employment numbers. It's easy to spin the numbers that will keep the market moving higher and higher. Few folks have the time or knowledge to crunch numbers; MSM and Corporate media knows how to oil the machinery.
I suggest listening to this again particularly here 56:58 A frightening scenario has developed - and quickly metastasizing as poor practices evolve into further Demographic breakdown; spending vastly outpacing income; future capital inflows trickling downwards; etc. Yow!
Dr Hunt has the best understanding and capacity to communicate economic mechanics. What we need to come to terms with is discerning the difference between doing on a macro level what works short term versus what is right and necessary in the long term. The First World led by the U.S. has taught everyone else in the world what works in the short term without contemplating the unintended consequences of what is necessary in the long run. This creates the moral hazard that describes the metaphor laid out in Revelation 18.
Surely if capital investment declines, the subsequent decline in the real economy will lead to a decline in the valuation of financial assets, eventually making capital investments once again more attractive than financial trading. However, it will be a slow process with a lot of pain. However, the shift of funds back to capital investment could accelerate if the markets continue to become more efficient.
Can anyone explain to me how with negative savings there is thus no ability to fund new capital projects 53:20, I thought banks could create loans for new capital projects and they were not constrained by savings ???
@@financialquarterback John Greenwood, Bill Fleckenstein, Doug Casey, Lobo Tiggre, Richard Heart can be other alternatives. But, Hanke, & Paulson would be amazing, to begin with…
I think bank lending leads deposits ( liabilities ) the banks lend what they want based on perceptions of risk and bad loans. If lending is down its due to a poor outlook, too much lending previously going into speculative use not productive.
This is the reason single family homes will get hit, too. They are counting on new construction to bring the economy back. 😀 😂😮😅. I'll bet banks will be reluctant to lend on these new homes that are out of bounds for working people. They are dreaming if they believe retirees will move to ho-dunk towns. 😢
Private sector wages, except the C-suite, and taxes need to rise at the expense of profits. Government spending needs to decrease. Government salaries need to be frozen for a couple years.
Why freeze government salaries? 70% of spending is on the military, medicare/medicaid, SS and servicing debt. Why attack workers when you can address obvious solutions like not having a trillion dollar military budget every year that is entirely borrowed.
@@crashingatom6755 You are correct, but any spending cuts will hugely affect the private sector and be extremely painful. Government employees and lawmakers must feel that pain too.
It is not, check QE1,2,3 There was no inflation during that time. covid inflation came from fiscal policy combined with monetary policy (QE4) and broken supply chains. Fiscal means free money, QE means lower rates, which stimulate credit creation (aka loans). More credit creation = more money in real economy = more inflation.
Massively!!! They have wealth Transferred 10s of TRILLIONS to the top.. Can you not see it?? Housing here up 100% plus, rents up 70%, food up 30 to 40% !!! You cant miss it !!
@@n4870s Actually, QE is inflation. If the fed is buying bonds meaning money that would otherwise be going into treasuries has to find a new home whether it be stocks houses or discretionary it makes more money available, thats inflation. If there was no QE there would have been deflation.
@@yuriengland1 fed is using bank reserves to buy bonds from commercial banks, not real usd money. This lowers interest rates as demand for bonds increase there price, therefore lowers the rate. Lower rates attract people and companies to take more cheap debt, which results in more money circulating. However fed does not give money to anyone directly, it is us who cause inflation by going into debt. Another approach is fiscal policy where the govt hands free helicopter money (stimmy checks) to people. This is highly inflationary. Actually banks are not constrained to loan money.
@@n4870s whos bank reserves? Where do the bank reserves come from? After they buy the bonds from the commercial banks what do the banks do with that money they now have from the sold bonds?
@@financialquarterback Lacy Hunt has for years appeared on many other podcasts, etc. The poster is aware, as I am, of Lacy's investment thesis, even if he didn't state it here.
If you have a problem with the way the FinQB runs his show …go find some other show …leave altogether …or keep quiet! You’re level arrogance is breath taking.
He may be one of your “all time favorite guests….” But he’s got a very bad sense of market timing, let alone providing “actionable” advice. He’s been predicting that interest rates would go to the moon for, literally, 10 YEARS…. Mr Hunt operates on the premiss that “even a stopped clock is right two times a day.” His long held investment thesis that Gov & Consumer Spending (Debt) would soon send RATES through the roof was only “verified” by unusually large, Federal COVID spending…. Which sparked INFLATION… without the ABNORMAL spending, Hunt’s newsletter would still be peddling MATHEMATICAL none sense. YES, a stopped clock is predictably “correct” twice a day… YES.. some people do actually follow up and check the history of “predictions” given by financial newsletters… and despite the erudite math, and authoritative voice… Mr Hunts’ track record is one of the worst.
I have never heard Mr. Hunt set dates for particular events or try to time the market. However, his analysis has real value for people who are trying to time macro economic cycles as best they can (which is somewhat different from the even harder task of timing the markets). Timing would be difficult even if we had a free market, and with constant government intervention it gets even harder. If you refuse to learn from anyone who cannot or will not try to time the market, you will be a poorly educated investor.
A lot of our listeners don’t really understand him, so I have to make it more digestible. We have a big radio audience in NY and across the US son podcasts. Thanks for the feedback.
I guve this combination of guest, host & callers (especially Joe), AAA grade for their expertise, polite manner & thought-provoking questions respectively. Thank you to all.
I love Joe too
Dr. Lacy Hunt is obviously a highly intelligent economist and just as importantly a first class man. I could listen to him speak for hours on end. He’s has no political agenda and is just giving economic data without spin.
Agreed
Dr. Hunt is a great guest. So honest and intelligent!
Dr. Hunt is a very thoughtful, incisive, and articulate man regarding financial matters. He is always worth a listen.
As long as Wall Street continues to use creative financial formulas to boost algorithms, most will disregard Hunt's data proven thesis. It's human nature to believe good news rather than bad news.
Life would become too discouraging. The TRUTH is painful 😒
Love Dr. Hunt and his no drama style.
This was really wonderful. You have a clever set of viewers who asked insightful questions. Great show
Thanks for listening
It's difficult to imagine that you all will find a better informed guest. 😅 I look forward to seeing insights of future guests.
Thanks for viewing
Thanks for letting the quality questions come through! This video is way better than the average financial information. More Dr Hunt please.
My pleasure!
Dr. Hunt is a flat out stud. Great insights, clearly explained. Thanks!
What learn from the internet, is nobody learns from the internet. You should take a few moments and research Mr Hunts last 3 years of calls for a bond bull market. He cost investors 50%.
Thank you
What an excellent conversation. I really appreciate the content🔥👍
Glad you enjoyed it!
A very good point brought out in the last question by one of those Brilliant listeners, and which Dr Hunt addressed was: Yes, rates appear to be coming down. But - many of those who are desiring refinancing soon are no longer in the advantageous Credit category that they were previously in 2 years ago! Rates may indeed drop - but they may no longer qualify for those lower rates.
And for the consumer? Even with Good credit, an 8% loan is about the best one can hope for when buying a vehicle than has meanwhile become more expensive.
The exuberant expectation therefore of Happy days ahead once the Fed lowers rates, may be the just a silver lining masking a dark oppressive cloud.
Dr Hunt is amazing as far as his financial knowledge and experience. such a pleasure to watch and learn from one of the best!
How's Lacy's long bond call working out? I was pretty interested in his story, till it took a 30% chunk out of what I put into it. It looks like Lacy is saying that if globalization goes down, then the US goes down with it, but China is falling apart, and the US GDP is up 5%. He and every other bear in 2023 are looking like a bunch of clowns.
Glad you think so!
Great guest and excellent questions - thanks very a very insightful conversation.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Dr Hunt = fantastic content!
Always!
One of handful of macro economics men worth listening to.
You will always learn from the Doc 😊
I learn from him too!
Time to listen to this again. ❤ Edit: It seems that what Dr.Hunt stated 2 months ago is now beginning to manifest, slowly but surely.
More Lacy YES
Will try
Absolutely awesome discussion! Subscribed :)
Glad you enjoyed it!
Because of the insightful questions from your audiences, this is one of the best interviews I've seen with the remarkable Dr. Lacey Hunt. Thank you very much for this opportunity
Wow, thank you!
The Greater Seattle area has a huge amount of multi-family housing that will be all coming into the market at the same time in the next year or two. It will be welcome for all the renters who have seen huge increases in rent over the past few years since they were unfrozen.
Multi family housing is confusing, do you mean apartment buildings? If so, I’m sure a lot of single ppl live in them not just families, which actually seems unlikely due to space restrictions.
@@antpoo It's a lot of apartment buildings and a lot of town homes. But the amount of apartments is kind of impressive. They are popping up all over the city. So are the townhome lots where they turn a one or two house lot into 3-6 units.
Seattle was way behind on building though. If you look at the zoning laws it was only within like the past 10 or so they changed the zoning restrictions. Up until that point it was zoned for something insane like 90% single family housing.
@@antpoo Also, it's the whole Greater Seattle area. I passed by a place in Renton that was a monumental build of like 6 apartment buildings with hundreds of units.
@@geoffgjof this is horrible, the chase to stay on top of GDP growth will completely ruin our living standards. They will pack us like sardines to keep extracting their returns
@@geoffgjof these type of HUGE complexes now popping up in EVERY major US city, remind me of ghettos I saw outside major european cities. 15 min cities. How to be happy living in a tiny cube? ready to pop a happy pill laced w fentanyl.
No one works now so productivity is so low and consumption goes up we are doomed
Love this. This is just what I look for to figure out where the economy is really going.
Thanks
Multi-family overbuild: downtown Seattle where 30-story posh condo / rentals went up like mushrooms while neighborhoods (eg., 3rd and Pike) deteriorated to the extent that they're no-go zones after dark...
I used to live in Queen Ann. Now, it heartbreaking to see what has happened to that once Fabulous city.
Politicians try to make us believe that inflation is growth
Agreed
As long as they can convince us that GDP & Employment is still rising (as they did 4/5) markets will take off. It's only when channels like Nobody Special Finance takes the time to break down the employment data (full time workers vs part time workers) that we can understand how Wall Street reports misleading employment numbers. It's easy to spin the numbers that will keep the market moving higher and higher. Few folks have the time or knowledge to crunch numbers; MSM and Corporate media knows how to oil the machinery.
Love him.
Me too
Man you should hush up and let Lacy talk.
Haha
First time listening, I noticed you have only 3.5 k subscribers but already 25,000 views. Your guest is quite knowledgeable. I'll follow you.
Thanks for the sub. Tell all your friends
Great interview! ❤
Thanks
I suggest listening to this again particularly here 56:58
A frightening scenario has developed - and quickly metastasizing as poor practices evolve into further Demographic breakdown; spending vastly outpacing income; future capital inflows trickling downwards; etc.
Yow!
Thanks for the feedback
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
Good to hear!
Hunt is worth a listen he a great guest I did not know this was on 'X"
Be sure to follow @yourfinancialqb for more interviews with the great Dr Lacy Hunt
Recession for 75% of workers are in a recession since 2008, weaker earnings relative to inflation.
Dr Hunt has the best understanding and capacity to communicate economic mechanics. What we need to come to terms with is discerning the difference between doing on a macro level what works short term versus what is right and necessary in the long term. The First World led by the U.S. has taught everyone else in the world what works in the short term without contemplating the unintended consequences of what is necessary in the long run. This creates the moral hazard that describes the metaphor laid out in Revelation 18.
Revelation 18. Good point
Surely if capital investment declines, the subsequent decline in the real economy will lead to a decline in the valuation of financial assets, eventually making capital investments once again more attractive than financial trading. However, it will be a slow process with a lot of pain. However, the shift of funds back to capital investment could accelerate if the markets continue to become more efficient.
Shout out to great first question asker: a legend, half the size of Lucy!
Lol
Can anyone explain to me how with negative savings there is thus no ability to fund new capital projects 53:20, I thought banks could create loans for new capital projects and they were not constrained by savings ???
America 🇺🇸 will be a Nation of renters, so you'll be working all your life
You'll also be working all your life to pay insurance for everything...and taxes!
Good guess Dr. Hunt!
Interview Steve Hanke, & John Paulson, too if you can.
I will work on getting them.
@@financialquarterback John Greenwood, Bill Fleckenstein, Doug Casey, Lobo Tiggre, Richard Heart can be other alternatives. But, Hanke, & Paulson would be amazing, to begin with…
@@issenvan1050 keep the suggestions coming. I will get my producer to reach out. We love high-quality suggestions
@@financialquarterback I have a long list. You’ll regret. 😎
I think bank lending leads deposits ( liabilities ) the banks lend what they want based on perceptions of risk and bad loans.
If lending is down its due to a poor outlook, too much lending previously going into speculative use not productive.
This is the reason single family homes will get hit, too. They are counting on new construction to bring the economy back. 😀 😂😮😅. I'll bet banks will be reluctant to lend on these new homes that are out of bounds for working people. They are dreaming if they believe retirees will move to ho-dunk towns. 😢
Ask about the safety of the banks
So the answer to the question, will bond yields go higher, is?
He would probably say, go down
@@financialquarterback5 months later? Yields UP. 😮 We'll soon find out.
Why don’t you employ timestamps?
I will so in the future. Thanks
@@financialquarterbackBrian Hirschmann.
Private sector wages, except the C-suite, and taxes need to rise at the expense of profits. Government spending needs to decrease. Government salaries need to be frozen for a couple years.
Why freeze government salaries? 70% of spending is on the military, medicare/medicaid, SS and servicing debt. Why attack workers when you can address obvious solutions like not having a trillion dollar military budget every year that is entirely borrowed.
@@crashingatom6755 You are correct, but any spending cuts will hugely affect the private sector and be extremely painful. Government employees and lawmakers must feel that pain too.
Tesla lowered their prices due to China competition.
Good point
When are we considered "In a recession?" In my 60+ years it has been noted you are in one 3-6 months before you or the Federal Gov't says we are . 🙄
Two quarters of negative GDP is a recession, so yeah it takes 6 months.
Didn’t Lacy say QE isn’t inflation? 🤣
It is not, check QE1,2,3 There was no inflation during that time. covid inflation came from fiscal policy combined with monetary policy (QE4) and broken supply chains. Fiscal means free money, QE means lower rates, which stimulate credit creation (aka loans). More credit creation = more money in real economy = more inflation.
Massively!!! They have wealth Transferred 10s of TRILLIONS to the top.. Can you not see it?? Housing here up 100% plus, rents up 70%, food up 30 to 40% !!! You cant miss it !!
@@n4870s Actually, QE is inflation. If the fed is buying bonds meaning money that would otherwise be going into treasuries has to find a new home whether it be stocks houses or discretionary it makes more money available, thats inflation. If there was no QE there would have been deflation.
@@yuriengland1 fed is using bank reserves to buy bonds from commercial banks, not real usd money. This lowers interest rates as demand for bonds increase there price, therefore lowers the rate. Lower rates attract people and companies to take more cheap debt, which results in more money circulating. However fed does not give money to anyone directly, it is us who cause inflation by going into debt. Another approach is fiscal policy where the govt hands free helicopter money (stimmy checks) to people. This is highly inflationary.
Actually banks are not constrained to loan money.
@@n4870s whos bank reserves? Where do the bank reserves come from? After they buy the bonds from the commercial banks what do the banks do with that money they now have from the sold bonds?
You didn't cover all the sectors
He definitely covers the ones that WILL effect the economy - the consumer spending ability and housing!
Lack got everything wrong about bonds but if 50% losses in 3 years are your cup of tea, take his advice.
He’s not giving investment advice but macroeconomic commentary
@@financialquarterback No, the poster is correct. Lacy manages a Treasury-only fixed income fund and has positioned it long duration for years.
@@jimmalmstrom6593 yes but these shows are not him giving investment advice.
@@financialquarterback Lacy Hunt has for years appeared on many other podcasts, etc. The poster is aware, as I am, of Lacy's investment thesis, even if he didn't state it here.
WITH RESPECT FINANCIAL QUARTERBACK …I AND ALL OTHERS ARE HERE TO HEAR LACY NOT YOU INTERRUPTING 2 CENTS .BE RESPECTFUL !!!
Dude, it’s his show. Lighten up
This is comical.
If you have a problem with the way the FinQB runs his show …go find some other show …leave altogether …or keep quiet! You’re level arrogance is breath taking.
@@financialquarterbackhere here! …your doing a terrific job kind sir.
He may be one of your “all time favorite guests….”
But he’s got a very bad sense of market timing, let alone providing “actionable” advice.
He’s been predicting that interest rates would go to the moon for, literally, 10 YEARS….
Mr Hunt operates on the premiss that “even a stopped clock is right two times a day.”
His long held investment thesis that Gov & Consumer Spending (Debt) would soon send RATES through the roof was only “verified” by unusually large, Federal COVID spending…. Which sparked INFLATION… without the ABNORMAL spending, Hunt’s newsletter would still be peddling MATHEMATICAL none sense.
YES, a stopped clock is predictably “correct” twice a day…
YES.. some people do actually follow up and check the history of “predictions” given by financial newsletters… and despite the erudite math, and authoritative voice… Mr Hunts’ track record is one of the worst.
I don’t think he holds himself out as a market timer.
There’s a REASON Hunt pulls the historical releases of his newsletter off his website…. And it ain’t because he’s batting 1,000.
I have never heard Mr. Hunt set dates for particular events or try to time the market. However, his analysis has real value for people who are trying to time macro economic cycles as best they can (which is somewhat different from the even harder task of timing the markets). Timing would be difficult even if we had a free market, and with constant government intervention it gets even harder. If you refuse to learn from anyone who cannot or will not try to time the market, you will be a poorly educated investor.
might want to adjust your camera angle, Josh. you look like a little kid at the big folks table
What angle do you suggest?
Lacy is always great. The interviewer, meh.
Lol
This host keeps cutting off Lacy and then shows how superficial his thought process is. What a waste of an interview w the great lacy Hunt.
I’m sure you can host him on your show, right?
A lot of our listeners don’t really understand him, so I have to make it more digestible. We have a big radio audience in NY and across the US son podcasts. Thanks for the feedback.
The interviewer isn’t good.
Thanks for the feedback. I am a radio show host in one of the biggest radio markets in the world.
@@financialquarterbackpoint still stands!
It is apparent that the interviewer lacks the proper knowledge to interview Dr Hunt properly.
I find this laughable since we have interviewed Dr Hunt about 20 plus times. I’m sure you would do better.
I agree
@@crouchhill I’m glad he lets me do it any way!
Being humble is the best lesson learned.