John Curtice on the Exit Poll: What will he be doing on election day?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ต.ค. 2024
- Sir John needs little introduction to followers of British politics, as one of the UK’s best-known political scientists and the man who guides the nation through election nights for the BBC. Recently he calculated that on current polling, the Labour Party have a 99% chance of forming the next government.
With the election looming, join us for a very special audience with Sir John as we look ahead to the vote. He will reflect on historic election shocks such as 1992, through to the changes of government in 1997 and 2010. He will also offer an insight into what it is like to crunch the numbers on polling day while the nation awaits the exit poll.
Does anyone nip out around 2pm and put a bet on? - Only the Tories?
What a guy. Incredible that the integrity required to analyse and predict the election results seems to be completely alien to the government that called the election in the first place.
You do know that Curtice and the entire polling industry got the result badly wrong as they do in most elections? They were 6 points.out. In every election in the last 50 years they've overstated centrist labour's vote share. Curtice never mentions this and basically shills for the entire useless industry.
I think it’s rather wonderful that we live in a country where we can trust the ballot boxes leaving the polling station before the votes are counted
yeaa i think in other countries politicians would accuse people of vote rigging but here politicians follow monarchs so they avoid it
@@LolLol-ne9yw yes i lived in north cyprus once and saw a cop car with half a dozen ballot boxes on back seat just after poling stations closed on the way to be counted centrally they both had massive smiles on there faces it just crossed my mind i bet they know which party is going to win
Ballot Boxes are sealed when they leave the polling station and the Presiding officer completes a ballot sheet account stating how many votes are in the box.
@@peterlinfield8707 Doesn't mean it isn't swapped or tampered with outside the polling station or before it is sealed.
As a former poll clerk and presiding officer, I remember the care with which the ballot boxes were handled. There was always a police presence overseeing everything. Good luck to anyone wanting to stuff ballot boxes, they would have to bribe an awful lot of people. Everyone had signed legal documents about behaviour on the day and it was serious stuff.
Thank you Sir John😊😎👌🏼
Oh it's against the law to share information on how people voted before the polls close? Explain to me how Laura Kuenssberg in 2019 was able to comment live on air that the postal votes were looking pretty grim for Labour in a lot of parts of the country?
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good point why has she never had to explain why she is so sure of that statement live before they could legally be counted
Because she's a Tory Shill- No way she'll say the same about the Tories this time round.
It was her who was pushing the 'it's looks very close' in the London Mayoral Election, ten minutes before the polls closed- and Khan ended up winning by a country mile against that god awful woman, the Tories put up.😂
And Ruth Davidson back in 2014.
I could listen to this guy talk all day
STV = Single Transferable Vote, not Scottish Television
Sir John is always a pleasure to listen to. Very charismatic and very engaging.
A national treasure, this man.
He’s going to make a lot of people happy just before bedtime tonight.
Fascinating
I should however say I am a real fan of Sir John's other work.
The Godfather of British nerds👍👍👍👍👍
I could listen to Sir John Curtice for hours! What a mind.
The science of making up a few numbers
My question for this year is how much the exit poll will be impacted by boundary changes, more support for smaller parties and more tactical voting? From the outside it feels these factors will make it less accurate than previous years so my nerd brain wants to hear how the team mitigate these factors (and also would love to read the post match analysis about what was right and wrong
yes i lived in north cyprus once and saw a cop car with half a dozen ballot boxes on back seat just after poling stations closed on the way to be counted centrally they both had massive smiles on there faces it just crossed my mind i bet they know which party is going to win
The Legend Himself
Is the full lecture available anywhere?
th-cam.com/users/liveW4C4fAZMJW4?si=cVew9xVKYduuZFZ3
i might have to pick up a few of his books
I wonder if some of those boundary changes will come back to bite the Tories.
Very interesting that it's the change in support, not the raw support itself that is worked with. I actually find it quite reassuring, as the rapidity of the exit polls has often puzzled me. Thank you for uploading.
There’s a gap for hugely engaging lovable geeks in this country, especially now that Chris Whitty’s left the public eye.
Sunak’s one act of genuine public service has been to flood my timeline with Curtice cuts for 6 weeks 🤤
What I've always wondered is what happens to the personal effects of the PM and chancellor in Downing Street on polling day? Is everything boxed up and then unboxed if they retain power or quickly moved if they lose?
Or if there's a new PM, is there the publicity shots done in Downing Street the day after the election. But they can't move in straight away and things are rapidly moving behind the scenes because the previous tenant has to be moved out?
The transfer of power after a presidential election is far more gradual across the pond. They have a couple of months to sort stuff out, ours is practically overnight.
I guess it varies from PM to PM, but will depend on whether they expect to win. I imagine John Major had his bags packed in 1997, but Johnson didn't in 2019. I don't think there's standard protocol on this
Sorry Professor Curtis, but I have to disagree with some of your views. Ballot boxes are sealed before they leave the Polling Station. Also, the Presiding Officer completes a Ballot Sheet account which states how many votes are in the box. I don't think you know how the process works. The system is good and based on years of experience. This is probably why we have never embraced electronic voting in this country, because it is considered too vulnerable for computer hackers.
But that's not a reason.
Votes are counted AT the polling station before they are brought to city hall. Everybody can come & watch in person, also webcams. The Netherlands has had a trial with computer voting, but it was found to be too vulnerable, so it's always with paper & pencil. Woe betide anyone who dares to challenge that.
What your country is doing is frankly idiotic. Those votes can get lost going from the Scillies to st Ives. They can be tampered with. And the only "reason" given for it is, "we've always done it this way."
That's not good enough.
He's a gardener, so he will cross political boundaries there.
He's an uphill gardener.
Why is it important to have an exit poll to get a guessed result albeit an accurate 2 to 6 hours prior the formal result being declared. I see no value in this except curiosity and giving pollsters some to do?
Gives the politicians 5 hours to prepare speeches, journalists to write articles. New PM to appoint Government etc.
The exit poll has been in recent elections extraordinarily accurate, and as such it is now viewed as a reliable predictor on how the results will be cast, and all the results are measured against the poll to indicate overall trends. Election night is a statistician's dream.
It’s a phenomenon of the TV age, it gives the TV networks a moment of drama at the start of the evening to keep viewers watching during the long period after the polls close and until we start getting meaningful results. A good example is the first UK exit in 1970 which forecast Ted Heath would win, everyone scoffed as the polls had been resolutely showing Harold Wilson heading for another 100 seat majority and a third term in office. Within a few hours the exit poll was proved right and all the campaign polls proved wrong. Wilson had to wait another 3 1/2 years for his third term as PM.
He's an old lefty 😅
he rally aint
@@vincentvangogh8092 oh he his love
Some awkward body language
time to go to digital voting system
Too easy to hack.
@@peterlinfield8707 yeah may be
why? why would we go from a system which works and is battle tested over a century, with many problems patched out
to one with far more problems we already know about, some of which aren’t solvable?
ffs we use pencils because they’re more secure than pens, the current system works incredibly well, it’s very very difficult to launch a large scale attack on an election in the UK
going digital would be expensive and risky and pointless
Vote Reform UK 🇬🇧.
Why?
@@nigelsynnott7344 because Labour and the "Conservatives" are two cheeks of the same ärśę.
No.
Hell, no. We do not need our own version of Trump. They'd make the Tories' 14-year car crash seem like a pleasant day out. You know Farage has long been a supporter of privatising the NHS? Do you want that?!
You bet ,in person black ink .