I read this book, absolutely fantastic work. It's the first time in my life that I felt a sense of belonging. My born in 1975, gen x, thirteener, nomad, leave me the hell alone personality had me thinking all this time that I never fit in anywhere. Suddenly not only do I fit, I'm a total clique! It's awesome and I'm very grateful for this work!! 💖💖💖
I think when Neil describes it taking 4 generations for everyone to forget the history of the previous crisis has been described best by: "Bad times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create bad times." Forgetting the sexism implicit in that statement there is a kernel of truth. Every generations tries to make life easier for the next generation. We make life SO easy that by the 4th generation it is so weak that society ends up collapsing and only the strong survive the tumult and the cycle starts again.
@@shadowforger2035 1. Where did I mention popular culture and how does your comment apply to what I wrote? 2. Who are you calling son? Chances are I am older than you. Although I somewhat agree with your statement I have NO idea how it applies to what I wrote, son.
I bought and read The Fourth Turning six times. The concept is that recurring values occur every generation which is around 20 + years four times. Thus around 100 years, that cycle recurs. The Fourth time in that larger cycle ends in war. We are there now. In essence, in a normal human life time, we see it broken into four phases. Time frames used go back five centuries. One might conclude that each generation is predetermined to repeat within 100 years. Not from free will. Using their timelines, one might conclude we will restart in the First Turning in the next decade. I would call the concept as The Circle of Life. An excellent book, Fourth Turning, it is not an easy read. It would likely appeal to readers of Orwell's 1984.
Context is everything. He said this while slavery was in full swing. So the obvious question would be; Which peoples liberty was so quentisential in Franklin's opinion? Or is the statement objective? If the statement is indeed objective, why not dedicate all efforts to the liberating of those enslaved. He did petition Congress a year before he died, asking them to abolish slavery noting a hypocrisy, I think in himself and the country. Bravo for him gaining wisdom in his later years, but I wouldn't hang onto the words of someone who took that long to see his ideals and reality were in conflict.
Yes, let’s stay in context. Abolishing slavery was discussed at the constitutional convention and the US constitution was not getting done without slavery staying in place. The 1808 clause was a swipe at slavery preventing the importations of persons (slaves) 20 years after the document was accepted. Not everyone was in support of slavery when the constitution was written. With that said, take Franklin’s words at face value, it still rings true and is valid advice.
It's funny, the bible has a book in the old testament - Judges - that's very specifically about this topic, and it shows in that time that things didn't just go badly and need fixing but it typically lead to slavery and needing liberation by an outside force or hero of some kind. It goes to show how long this information has been sort of 'known' and my guess is this has probably been a thing since the beginning of agricultural civilization.
Like every thing in the Bible, propagandists & strategists use this material to instigate conspiracy, doubt, & distrust of institutions. To gain support, they get as many as they can to unite against the common enemy. In this case its a belief that the core institutions of our country r so tainted they must b tore down & rebuilt from scratch. In other words, fascism 101. He & Steve Bannon along with men like Roger Stone have inserted a cancer into our country’s political populace. None of this is a coincidence & certainly not a prophecy.
Important to place ourselves on the canvas of history, to drown out the noise and to search for who where are, where we came from and where we are going.
During the past 4th turnings we seem to change globally. But not everybody changes the same way and some fail long before the next 4th turning because they chose wrong. It all depends on who picks up the pieces after the collapse. Sometimes those are people trying to good. Sometimes it is sociopaths.
Thank you both... Some guest interview themselves and the skill of the interviewer is to recognise this and just let them talk, explain and drop wisdom before ignorant people like myself to assimilate as best we can. Another interview please in short order to get those additional unasked questions answered! - Thanks.
An old saying...... Hard times create strong men. Strong men create easy times. Easy times create weak men. Weak men create hard times. .... that is the cycle
@@eirikbelisarius1100 It's not easy times for women. I worked 50 hours this week building office furniture. I have a home and yard to maintain. I have a rental property and a tenant I have to deal with today. I've been married twice. Husband #1 has nothing and paid $0 in child support for our two children. In 29 years he has accomplished nothing on his own. Husband #2 has a run down home with his won't work brother. He won't clean or do yardwork. Our daughter won't visit his home. He paid $411 a month in child support. My kids are grown and have nothing to do with dad. They hear from dad whenever dad needs something. I hear from dad when dad needs something. My coworker complains her 35 year old daughter's dad is still contacting her wanting money. Her raising a child alone wasn't enough. Men want the mothers of their children to support them also. I've chosen to be alone for 11 years because men need me to support them, cook, clean, and do their laundry. I keep hearing how we would have a good life. I've paid for 3 homes and most men haven't paid for one at 50+ years old.
@@eirikbelisarius1100 Good point! I agree. Did you read the Fourth Turning by Howe and Strauss? My husband is reading it but I plan to read it after he is through.
Thank you for having Neil Howe in your show, he is the best, an oracle of our times. I look at the current times completely through a generational theoretical lense because of Dr. Howe. All the stuff he's been talking about is coming to fruition.
Its not a coincidence. U will find the same themes in Steve Bannon’s films. They, with others such as Roger Stone, used the MAGA political movement to instigate events attempting to force a turn. Its not that distrust of institutions simply happened as predicted, propaganda & conspiracies were injected & promoted intentionally to get these results. They took advantage of the pandemic & other natural occurring events, but the strategy was executed from as far back as 2016, maybe earlier. Im not sure if they helped form the Tea Party movement or if they only saw the potential & acted accordingly.
His work, Generations co-wrote with Strauss, has been one of the most defining books of my life. It fascinated me in the early 90s and still does today.
I read this book when Clinton was president. I will say that I thought Neil was going to be wrong. It was hard to imagine racism being at an all time high in The feature when I was in hs and dreamed about being mj most of my life(like a lot of white suburban kids.). That the country would be very nationalistic. Globalization was just kicking off. It all seemed liked this would work out differently. I think about this book from time to time.
@@ChaoticM3thod Depends largely on where you live, the regional culture and your...economic situation, typically. When I lived in the northwest, and the midwest, the topic of race rarely ever came up, and someone would be seen as low class for openly voicing prejudicial opinions. When i lived in Philadelphia, in a working class town, there was plenty of "casual racism", but it was the shameful sort...whispered and muttered under ones breath. And Florida? Well...We don't take too kindly to them fancy book learnin' sorts. Ya can't fuel yer pickup with that durn book, ol Hoss! Let's exclude florida. Tis a silly place. If i could point out one thing that's taken a turn for the worst in regard to prejudice? They're ALL far more vocal because they've all been given a voice and a pulpit via the internet. Makes it _appear_ like they've had some exponential growth. Extremists, bigots, despots and conspiracy theorists of every sort are coming out of the woodwork. We all know how history will regard them. I'm very patient. 😁
The book was first published at the end of 1996, that is 26 years ago. Peoples' interest seems to follow a cycle traced by the various economic troubles that have occurred since then, each one believed to mark the beginning of the fourth turning. Here we go with another one.
Fascinating information. I found the 4th Turning book to be a tough read but have listened to it on Audible a couple of times and I highly recommend it.
I read the book twice and was probably one of the most influential books I've read, but I can't for the world listen to him speak he is all over the place.
I have been looking at history and these patterns as a novice but very much a student of history my whole life These patterns that Neil talks about in the 4th Turning are real. But I also looked at Philosophy to try to understand why these patterns seem to happen. I found that two ideals exist throughout history. They have had different names attributed to them, but ultimately come down to an ideal of the individual and the group. What I found is that one dominates a sacellum while the other exists in a minority state. Then it switches, for example The American revolution came about as a revolt of the tyrannical view of the individual over a society in King George, which offered that a group, The People, should be in charge of the society. That began to to alter society till the group ideal was dominate at the time of the Civil War. At that time the weaker view was rising up against the group with the ideal of the individual ideal is right and thus fighting against slavery. The prophet type generations spell out this quite well the minor ideal taking power from the dominate in a sacellum. The Awakening generation attacked the morals complacency, that is common among the ideal of the individual, promoting a more communal ideal. The Transcendental Generation spoke to the ideal of the individual with all the writings of non-conformity promoting the individual. The Missionary Generation brought about the ideals of the modern progressive ideals. The boomer who claim to be about community really was a very Me Generation leading to the society becoming very narcistic. By the time the forth turning arrives these ideals become poised to take over dominates from the opposing ideal. Today you see the weaker individual ideal fighting hard against the ideal of group. The individual ideals of Conservatives are fighting hard against the dominate ideals of progressive's and the ideal of group rights that dominate our culture at this time.
@Chad Siewert Well said. The liars have been ruling over mankind for a very long time, ensuring that “history” is only their projected story. See Proverbs 6:16. Pretty much everything there applies to the gang that has been really running America since the inception of the CIA. I should add that the maxim about absolute power corrupting absolutely aptly applies to the mess created by the Deep State, leading inexorably to America’s fall. All the signs are there for all to see. “If I had a nickel for each time that I’ve been put on ….” th-cam.com/video/UBvSNRGWIO8/w-d-xo.html
@Chad Siewert I understand your caution.. but it still happens I would caution that we might think it would be different... that idea is why i think the cycle continues. What got me to study is all this is the statement I heard over and over again in 2020, "This has never happen before.." lol
@Chad Siewert this seems extremely interesting, do you have any more evidence for history being rewritten - and what motive would the powers at be, have for doing this?
@@vmanvand The one that gets me is the Eerie Canal. 4’ by 40’ by 400 miles, supposedly built in 8 years by unskilled laborers, before the invention of power tools or dynamite. Yeah, right.
Individualism and collectivism are not as starkly divided between conservatives and progressives as you suggest. Both conservatives and progressives are populists; quite collective. As one values the individualist ethic, the other values individual self-expression, particularly the left-leaning variety (more specifically, gender).
Just learning about this book now. One thing he seems to miss is the physical and psychological trauma of the WW2 generation. They came home with injuries and PTSD that went undiagnosed and untreated for their lifetime. I think that was a factor in the boomer cultural revolution and rejection of their parents.
I learned about this concept from the etruscan philosophy, I automatically assumed the 4th turning would be a reference to that ancient concept or the works of spengler. It's nice to hear those ideas described on a simple manner.
I'm in a unique place. I'm 64 born at the end of the boomer generation in a family of six kids. My mom and dad were born in the mid twenties and lived thru the depression. My dad was a marine on Saipan and Tinian in WWll and served during Korea. My grandparents whom I knew were born in the 1880's which was 15 years after the civil war. I remember watching the old black and white tv and the news flash came on that Lincoln was assassinated 100 years ago. So when I think of WWll I see it as current events that shaped my world. I met people with tattoos on their forearms and a scar on the back of their head from having their head pushed into a nail so the Nazis could get their picture in the concentration camps. I learned first hand from people happened to survive the wars and depression. My grandparents were alive when many indian leaders were killed and the last souix uprising. So to cut it short, I feel like I'm in an alien world today with the wokeness and pretend racism and victimless victims today. I still remember the blue color of the sky before jets filled the air. When boys were boys and girls were girls and mom food from scratch every day and stayed home and dad worked three jobs and shift work. Society worked then. Oh and we called it prejudice then. You see you can learn to not be prejudicial to people of any differences to yourself. Racism is a word that means you're evil and no hope of changing. Queers are now gay. Gay people were happy. Fags were cigarettes.
Well, here's to unique places and simpler times.🍹 Looking back at the 1980s now that I'm in my 40s...everything has changed. the arrival of the digital age seemed to be a large part of it. We really didn't go outside to play after the advent of Nintendo and later on with PC's. Still, when i was a teenager, i promised myself that i would never "freeze in time" when i became older. I learn the latest lingo, the latest tech, and try to get a feel for the times...its a hassle. What i miss most from my 20s is that feeling of national unity, local community, and our ability to work through our differences civilly... but it's great to be on this side of the dirt, regardless. Maybe we'll be of some use later on, eh? By the time you reach 40, you're usually willing to hand out a bit of advice to folks in their 20s... Just a matter of finding one that wants advice...any luck yet? They're VERY stubborn. 😁
My grandfather fought in WWII. I was lucky to have spent so much time with someone born before 1920. He died when i was 12 years old. my dad was born in the 50s. The one major change is access to information. The times were not simpler. The population was less informed. Even now, I show my father information from his young adult years that leaves him speechless. Given what you said about prejudice, it seems your family would not agree with the treatment of black veterans after ww2, but they probably didn't know that black vets were excluded from GI Bill as one example. Part of the 1960s was informing the population that problems existed they used television. Now we have the internet that provides an opportunity to disseminate information faster and with less restrictions.
Very interesting discussion right up until the end, when you both seem to assume that we in the west are ruled by democracies. Despite the blatant evidence to the contrary.
The "West" is, definitely IS a democracy! It might be (definitely is) ruled by "manufactured consent", but hijacked as it is, it still is definitely a democracy. Then again, I have read an article I lost track of, titled "The rise of illiberal democracies", postulating (clearly a true aspect) that a "democracy" is not necessarily a "liberal" "enlightened" governance with clearly defined human rights where the individual is a willing participant and benefits from rights that even supersede the needs and whims of the collective interests.
How do the "generational" calculations of 22 years correspond to the fact that life expectancy has significantly lengthened since the "Glorious revolution" US revolution, US civil war and even WWII ? Is there a Bayesian adjustment that ha been applied?
Great vid. Seems like we should be combatting inflation by a combination of raising interest rates and cutting government spending. Not a popular solution but it may be the proper medicine for the next few months if not years.
I tell people who complain about the generation coming up...that each generation as its lessons to learn... Also. Nothing like a possible war with a larger power to bring a nation together... no more polarization. Or division.
The war actually isn’t the crisis, because it’s not unifying people, it’s yet another attempt at the uniparty Boomer establishment trying to regain the narrative control. The ascendant side in America is the convergence of Tucker Carlson, Glenn Greenwald & other left/right figures who are younger & unified mainly against the Boomers themselves.
Biggest change came with solving task for micro payment for the internet and fix real save P2P comm with IPv6 as Dr Wright just spoke on Dubai conf. Getting rid of ad based internet - new generation will figure out. Nice
RayDalio is very smart and very successful. However, I think he’s got it totally wrong on China. You should interview Peter Zeihan, who has a new book coming out next month: The End of the World is Just the Beginning. He can explain why China is not the future but rather is on the verge of demographic and economic collapse.
I had a weird epiphany at 19:33 as an X-er. He's talking about multiple dimensions of cycles. Artificial intelligence could learn and connect those cycles in ways people can't. We just want to fix things. We invent things that will become the next nuclear bomb... The last Nomad generation invented the bomb and airplanes. Before that, didn't the last Nomads invent machine guns and trains? Some invention changed the Revolution, right? Well, I guess Gen-Xer are trying to go to Mars. But what SkyNet s*** are X-ers going to create? If only AI could help.... LMAO.
When referencing the GFC and the Ukrainian war, how does omitting any reference to the 18-year war in Iraq & Afghanistan, sponsored by the American military industrial complex, not help understand how global political views negatively impact the 4th turning and the world economy?
Democracy allowed to centralize ends up like the USA. A few people controlling the availability of crucial information the mass of people have access to with which to make competent decisions. The tail ends up wagging the dog. We need more decentralization.
Do not listen to this man about democracy. Ever see Steve Bannon’s films?? They r of the same topics. Know who Steve Bannon is?? A political strategist, who with this man & others like Roger Stone, r attempting to instigate a forced turn or in other words, convince a large portion of the populace that our institutions r so tainted they need to b tore down & rebuilt. U know where u find this language?? Fascism 101. When a group seeking power does so camouflaged as something traditional (like the MAGA version of the Republican Party) only to then tear the system down from the inside & rebuild it as something more authoritarian. They don’t believe in democracy. They believe a small group of men can know better as to what is best for the country.
According to the Strauss/Howe generational theory, the 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s will be the next saeculum's 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s (more or less) -- a first turning followed by a second turning. Given the level of division in the United States today, I wonder if the country can come together in a fashion similar to the post-WW2 era? Also, will the 2040s & 2050s be as volatile as the 1960s & 1970s were? Or will we get it out of our system in the 2020s? JFK was assassinated just before the last second turning, Garfield was assassinated 5-10 years before the previous second turning, and William McKinley was assassinated during that second turning. Andrew Jackson just missed becoming the first US president to be assassinated near the end of the inaugural second turning of post-independence America (he was also the first POTUS to be the target of an assassination attempt.) Much to look forward to the next few decades.
Van Neistat did a really interesting analysis of the book. Something he brought up was that different generations take on different archetypes with four archetypes per saeculum. One is an artist type, these are the people who came of age during the high era. The produce their art during the awakening era (20 years later). In the last turning, it was 1964-1984. Which was an incredible era for music and movies. You could easily make an argument that the best 20 year span of music of the entire 20th century was 1964-1984. 14 out of the top 20 albums in the Rolling Stone 500 Greatest albums came from that era. There was enormous creativity. That was the Beatles, Stevie Wonder, Michael Jackson, Led Zeppelin, The Clash, Pink Floyd. But then look at the films, The Godfather, Star Wars, Monty Python, Alien, Ghostbusters. That creative energy that came of age during the High Era went on to make perhaps the best examples of 20th century art. If we have a high era after the 4th turning, it will start in the late 2020s or early 2030s. My wild guess, it will be signified by the election of a millennial for president in either 2028 or 2032, this person is likely someone who is currently not known in the body politic (its not AOC, its not Ben Shapiro). If this mirrors the last high era, there will be a lot of trust in institutions. I think it will be how we adapted to technology and a lot of disruptive technologies this decade, of which there are many, the 2020s are probably going to be the most disruptive decade ever. The real crises will be how this impacts society and then how we respond to it, painful for many at first but its something we must do. I would not be surprised if we see something that drastically brings down cost of living, such as automated building construction (where at least parts of the building are made in factories by robots, while the steel superstructure in the building is made by humans on site). But I also see a lot of institutional changes coming around. The last high era was extremely focused on institutional strengths, union membership, cheap college, cheap healthcare, housing policy that focused on affordable housing vs protecting neighborhood character. The things millennials really want were policies that were in the post WW2 high era. I think if that sort of continues. It will be kids who were born starting in the late 2010s or even right around now. Kids who will be teenagers in the 2030s, at least the oldest of them. They will be the artist generation. And when they get to really creating in the late 2040s, they will go on to create groundbreaking works, likely the artwork (I want to say music and movies, but it could be something off our radar, it could be games, it could VR experiences, it could be books. But whatever it is, it will be of extreme cultural importance) will be known as the best of the best of the 21st century. The conflict won't be like Boomers vs Millennials, it will be like GI generation vs Boomers. It will be a cultural one. The Millennials and Gen Z will be the GI generation. We will probably HATE the new art. Much like how old people hated rock music of the 60s. The thing about this current era, there is so much dysfunction an chaos that this can't last. The status quo is so ugly, especially for young people, that the more young people that age into it over the next decade the more social tension there will be. Something is going to have to burst. 40 million Americans will hit adulthood between now and 2030. They will be doing so in an increasingly hostile world. Something is absolutely going to have to change.
We will come together because the threat will be from the outside which always brings countries together. The Russia/Ukraine war is really a proxy war of the West against the East. We are seeing that invading Ukraine and the huge sanctions are leading to worldwide food shortages. Not to mention the already horrible supply chains issues and now a critical diesel shortage. We are entering another great depression in the sense that food will become scarce. We will have a world war in part because of the world trying to preserve limited resources. 4th turnings end in war. The new order will be a dominant China and a weak west but we will all be united again. This is just my guess.
I really respect this guy, and I need to read his book. That said, I found him really hard to listen to here. After 10 minutes, I realized I had no idea what he was talking about. Not to mention, he desperately needs a proper mic setup...the sound quality from his end was poor. It sounded like he was speaking through a tin can and string.
What baby, really you talking enough interesting..... 😁im amazed of what you did with that data concerns?? Put it in this phase program, when i just will try to go ahead.
How does Howe see cycles? Planet orbits are elliptical, not circular. Sinusoidal like AC voltage? I remember reading about Hindu folklore referring to cycles as a snake biting its own tail.
Let's record "how to handle a crisis 101" for the next generation who has to handle a crisis. We can't have another Volker. The entire financial system would collapse.
Clearly the next step is recurring stimulus, first as tax rebates, then just straight cash money. Every fiat currency always chooses to print and hyper inflate vs not print and collapse the monetary system. So history shows us 100% how this ends. Hyperinflation and everyone finding the Bitcoin way.
Comparing Ray Dalio's egoist, self-serving and mostly irrelevant publications (of very little interest outside of his own orbit) to Howe's work was inappropriate, in my opinion. Dalio's mountain of gobbledygook is little more than a rich man with his own vanity publisher churning out dressy books that mean nothing.
This 4th turning is very much the replacing of the Baby Boomers (1944-1964) in roles of leadership with the millennials (1984-2005). Yes, skipping over the Genxers, the Millennials are proving to be more like their own grandparents (GI’s and Silents) than their parents. This millennial generation is more responsible, more grounded, more caring, more sensitive than their parental counterparts who grew-up in the 1970’s and 1980’s. This shift in power structure is painful to the still-alive but retiring Boomers and the Genxerrs who never took their role as leaders. Look at AOC, she is the new congresswoman, very much in the minority of congresspeople now, we will see her contemporaries rise to take seats in the House, she will soon be a Senator, and who knows, God forbid President. This enormous passing of the torch of power is what embodies the notion of the 4th turning. Expect our future in the west to be one of Socialism, Cancel Culture, LGBTQ+, racial minority elevation, and income equality. Save the earth, climate change, the great reset all rolled into one happy millennial family, with the Genxers, and the Baby Boomers protesting, longing for the good ole days when Donald Trump was the savior.
@@bluefernlove Neil Howe and William Strauss coined the term “Millennial Generation” in 1987. They use 1984 as the beginning of the generation. They use 20 to 23 years in each generational cohort. They defined the Baby Boomers as 1944-1964, Generation X as 1965-1984, and the Millennials as 1984 to 2005. You must have about 20 years separating the generations so 1981 would be too early and would be encroaching on the X’ers time. They are the experts not me.
Yes. But not the crippled and taken / forked away btc segwit fork that does not work with smart contracts at scale and stable Satoshi compliant. Lets see
I think it's like the ice engine the internal combustion engine it's a four-stroke cycle so you can try to relate the intake stroke of a car and then second you have the combustion stroke and then third you have the power stroke, and then the four stroke the exhaust and then you go back to number one the intake remember it does this 10 times a second at idle
At 39 minutes he talks about what I call the nightmare scenario, that things just keep going on as they have been. This is the decline path and seems more and more likley to happens as time goes on an nothing happens.
@@ilevakam316 I am aware of this, as well as of the remote killing by drones in countries where the US has no legal authority. The 240000 victims of the war in Afghanistan are hardly mentioned, while every single window broken in Ukraine is headline news.
@@tatagata6268 Indeed, we get the entire Western media screeching with rage and running wall to wall coverage when a Russian airstrike kills three civilians, but near total silence from the same people over the hundreds of thousands Yemeni children who have died under the US and UK supported Saudi blockade of Yemen that has been going on for years. It's a great insight into the fact that most people have no consistent principles (i.e. "war is bad whoever does it" or "war is acceptable as a tool of foreign policy by any nation" would both be consistent lines to take). Instead it's simply "war is bad when I'm told it's bad by the media, and fine when it's not". The effctiveness of emotional manipulation is amazing, lots of people now HATE Russia and Russians purely because of the media. Even more ironically it's the same sort of people who love to say that they would have been against Japanese internment or McCarthyism or other moral panics.
Rebellion by immature individuals is a characteristic. Seldom is there any basis other than lack of understanding or basic time it takes to learn a broader view of reality.
It's quite interesting pattern. As a millennial myself I was not at all impressed with my boomer parents Growing up I was quite close with my silent Gen grandparents and wanted to be more like them but keep more of the individually of the boomers. Boomers had it all too easy and they are very self centered as a whole, and simply will not give up from positions of power. Looke at all the extreamly old boomers STILL in politics! Come on guys retire already! The next election cycle looks again like a race of even older boomers.
@54:20 we seen that I the markets.. 2020/2021 ... I will amazed if 25 years from to today we end up having a $amc or $gme ape becomes a fed chairman or treasurer.
Thewithdrawal of the USA into a North American regional economy rather than the current global economy wil lead to higher inflation. But when completed it will lead to a US boom.
Both parties are leaderless and Biden likely lame duck. Have to hope millennial generation steps in soon. Not part of this podcast but Neil Howe has commented how Gen-X is generally apolitical. Also most political leadership on cusp of aging out this decade.
I think Zoomers will step up before Millennials can take over. It messes up the Theory, but there were only 3 Turnings before the Civil War. Maybe there will be 5 before we resolve the current crisis.
My mom watches The Honeymooners with that guy yelling I told her that's why she probably yells and my grandmother was mean.I know she learned it from that show pretty horrible those actors were possessed.
You probably would argue the same about Machiavelli. Understanding these ideas is actually the key to understanding power, because those in power clearly noticed cyclical patterns of human behavior, & weaponized them to gain more power. The science of understanding power cannot be driven by data.
Actually bought and read the book. No statistics or graphs. Only narrative. Concept interesting and I get it but rather boring to read for me personally. A summary is enough
Look around the world, pretty much no country is "just fine". The few that might qualify are in Scandinavia and they are at more danger than ever of being drawn into armed conflict with Russia - particularly Finland.
![[Part 1] ทารกน้อยถูกทิ้ง👶 หญิงชราเก็บขวดขายเลี้ยงดูเขาจนโต #โลกการละคร](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/nPTDvFCExks/mqdefault.jpg)
I read this book, absolutely fantastic work. It's the first time in my life that I felt a sense of belonging. My born in 1975, gen x, thirteener, nomad, leave me the hell alone personality had me thinking all this time that I never fit in anywhere.
Suddenly not only do I fit, I'm a total clique! It's awesome and I'm very grateful for this work!! 💖💖💖
I know the feeling and the manic decadent nineties summed up Gen X
You exactly clarified my feelings! Hey, what’s up, fellow X-er! Nice to meet you!!!
That book helps us understand and see the big picture and our position in it.
@@SterninSeth nice to meet you too!
Howe and Strauss wrote that it would be up to Gen X to keep the Boomers from going overboard.
Didn't exactly succeed there, did we?
I think when Neil describes it taking 4 generations for everyone to forget the history of the previous crisis has been described best by: "Bad times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create bad times." Forgetting the sexism implicit in that statement there is a kernel of truth. Every generations tries to make life easier for the next generation. We make life SO easy that by the 4th generation it is so weak that society ends up collapsing and only the strong survive the tumult and the cycle starts again.
I wonder why tribal societies stay the same for thousands of years? I think I know why. My family stayed the same for 3500 years. So kiss my ass lol 🤔
Popular Culture is not Culture son
@@shadowforger2035 1. Where did I mention popular culture and how does your comment apply to what I wrote? 2. Who are you calling son? Chances are I am older than you. Although I somewhat agree with your statement I have NO idea how it applies to what I wrote, son.
You are a Boomer. I can tell just by your comment.
No surprise that Neil is one of the most requested guests. Glad you could make it happen. Nice work.
I bought and read The Fourth Turning six times. The concept is that recurring values occur every generation which is around 20 + years four times. Thus around 100 years, that cycle recurs. The Fourth time in that larger cycle ends in war. We are there now. In essence, in a normal human life time, we see it broken into four phases. Time frames used go back five centuries. One might conclude that each generation is predetermined to repeat within 100 years. Not from free will. Using their timelines, one might conclude we will restart in the First Turning in the next decade. I would call the concept as The Circle of Life. An excellent book, Fourth Turning, it is not an easy read. It would likely appeal to readers of Orwell's 1984.
Not an easy read, I second that.
I found that whisky helps when reading it.
Why would readers of 1984 be likely to have an appreciation for Howe's book?
Definitely not an easy read. I couldn't get through it once, let alone multiple times.
A great author would have simplified it into an easy read
As Ben Franklin said, “If you give up liberty for security, you have neither.” Remember that!
Context is everything. He said this while slavery was in full swing. So the obvious question would be; Which peoples liberty was so quentisential in Franklin's opinion? Or is the statement objective? If the statement is indeed objective, why not dedicate all efforts to the liberating of those enslaved. He did petition Congress a year before he died, asking them to abolish slavery noting a hypocrisy, I think in himself and the country. Bravo for him gaining wisdom in his later years, but I wouldn't hang onto the words of someone who took that long to see his ideals and reality were in conflict.
😮@@horaceconstruct7586😢🎉😂🎉 omi9bml9😅6g mm8urwkñv zsg ⁷þ🎉😂
Yes, let’s stay in context.
Abolishing slavery was discussed at the constitutional convention and the US constitution was not getting done without slavery staying in place.
The 1808 clause was a swipe at slavery preventing the importations of persons (slaves) 20 years after the document was accepted.
Not everyone was in support of slavery when the constitution was written.
With that said, take Franklin’s words at face value, it still rings true and is valid advice.
Very insightful podcast! It is very true that most people who lived through history are gone so history repeats itself.
They don't repeat, they rhyme. There will be some correlations but each cycle is different depending on how people respond to it
It's funny, the bible has a book in the old testament - Judges - that's very specifically about this topic, and it shows in that time that things didn't just go badly and need fixing but it typically lead to slavery and needing liberation by an outside force or hero of some kind. It goes to show how long this information has been sort of 'known' and my guess is this has probably been a thing since the beginning of agricultural civilization.
waayyy overdue
@Chad Siewert perfect.
Howe and Strauss used many biblical comparisons. Like:
Moses: Prophet
the golden calf worshippers: Nomad
Joshua: Hero
Judges: Artist
The bible was written by traitors to human race.
Like every thing in the Bible, propagandists & strategists use this material to instigate conspiracy, doubt, & distrust of institutions. To gain support, they get as many as they can to unite against the common enemy. In this case its a belief that the core institutions of our country r so tainted they must b tore down & rebuilt from scratch. In other words, fascism 101.
He & Steve Bannon along with men like Roger Stone have inserted a cancer into our country’s political populace. None of this is a coincidence & certainly not a prophecy.
Important to place ourselves on the canvas of history, to drown out the noise and to search for who where are, where we came from and where we are going.
This is the interview I have been waiting for since the 24th of Feb.
During the past 4th turnings we seem to change globally. But not everybody changes the same way and some fail long before the next 4th turning because they chose wrong. It all depends on who picks up the pieces after the collapse. Sometimes those are people trying to good. Sometimes it is sociopaths.
Thank you both... Some guest interview themselves and the skill of the interviewer is to recognise this and just let them talk, explain and drop wisdom before ignorant people like myself to assimilate as best we can. Another interview please in short order to get those additional unasked questions answered! - Thanks.
An old saying......
Hard times create strong men.
Strong men create easy times.
Easy times create weak men.
Weak men create hard times.
.... that is the cycle
That is why young women are having a hell of a hard time finding a real man who wants to be a husband and father.
Who said that? We must be living in the weak men create hard times phase.
@@lawaincooley6788 Well, I'm sure easy times creates weak women too.
@@eirikbelisarius1100 It's not easy times for women. I worked 50 hours this week building office furniture. I have a home and yard to maintain. I have a rental property and a tenant I have to deal with today.
I've been married twice. Husband #1 has nothing and paid $0 in child support for our two children. In 29 years he has accomplished nothing on his own. Husband #2 has a run down home with his won't work brother. He won't clean or do yardwork. Our daughter won't visit his home. He paid $411 a month in child support. My kids are grown and have nothing to do with dad. They hear from dad whenever dad needs something. I hear from dad when dad needs something. My coworker complains her 35 year old daughter's dad is still contacting her wanting money. Her raising a child alone wasn't enough. Men want the mothers of their children to support them also.
I've chosen to be alone for 11 years because men need me to support them, cook, clean, and do their laundry. I keep hearing how we would have a good life. I've paid for 3 homes and most men haven't paid for one at 50+ years old.
@@eirikbelisarius1100 Good point! I agree. Did you read the Fourth Turning by Howe and Strauss? My husband is reading it but I plan to read it after he is through.
Thank you for having Neil Howe in your show, he is the best, an oracle of our times.
I look at the current times completely through a generational theoretical lense because of Dr. Howe. All the stuff he's been talking about is coming to fruition.
Its not a coincidence. U will find the same themes in Steve Bannon’s films. They, with others such as Roger Stone, used the MAGA political movement to instigate events attempting to force a turn. Its not that distrust of institutions simply happened as predicted, propaganda & conspiracies were injected & promoted intentionally to get these results. They took advantage of the pandemic & other natural occurring events, but the strategy was executed from as far back as 2016, maybe earlier. Im not sure if they helped form the Tea Party movement or if they only saw the potential & acted accordingly.
Excellent segment. I can’t wait for an updated forth turning book. Would love for it to be inclusive of uk/eu
His work, Generations co-wrote with Strauss, has been one of the most defining books of my life. It fascinated me in the early 90s and still does today.
I read it in 2008 when I was 16 and it legit changed the way I view everyone and everything.
I read this book when Clinton was president. I will say that I thought Neil was going to be wrong. It was hard to imagine racism being at an all time high in The feature when I was in hs and dreamed about being mj most of my life(like a lot of white suburban kids.). That the country would be very nationalistic. Globalization was just kicking off. It all seemed liked this would work out differently. I think about this book from time to time.
News flash: "racism is made up."
No one cares
Racism isn't at an all time high though...
Racism is not high, it's being lied to you by the left to separate people... they want to divide..
@@ChaoticM3thod Depends largely on where you live, the regional culture and your...economic situation, typically.
When I lived in the northwest, and the midwest, the topic of race rarely ever came up, and someone would be seen as low class
for openly voicing prejudicial opinions.
When i lived in Philadelphia, in a working class town, there was plenty of "casual racism", but it was the shameful sort...whispered and muttered under ones breath.
And Florida?
Well...We don't take too kindly to them fancy book learnin' sorts. Ya can't fuel yer pickup with that durn book, ol Hoss!
Let's exclude florida. Tis a silly place.
If i could point out one thing that's taken a turn for the worst in regard to prejudice?
They're ALL far more vocal because they've all been given a voice and a pulpit via the internet.
Makes it _appear_ like they've had some exponential growth.
Extremists, bigots, despots and conspiracy theorists of every sort are coming out of the woodwork.
We all know how history will regard them. I'm very patient. 😁
Both of Howe's books are excellent. Gives you real insight and its revealed patterns can be applied to other countries and where they are at.
The book was first published at the end of 1996, that is 26 years ago. Peoples' interest seems to follow a cycle traced by the various economic troubles that have occurred since then, each one believed to mark the beginning of the fourth turning. Here we go with another one.
The fourth turning has already begun. It is the Era we have been living in for more than a decade.
Fascinating information. I found the 4th Turning book to be a tough read but have listened to it on Audible a couple of times and I highly recommend it.
Its a blue print/political strategy to lead a country into fascism. He has worked with Steve Bannon on films because they both have the same goals.
Yeah I hit the wall with the Kindle edition but will have a other attempt - its dry for sure but important to internalise
I read the book twice and was probably one of the most influential books I've read, but I can't for the world listen to him speak he is all over the place.
I totally agree. I couldn't understand what this guy was saying half the time.
You almost have to have his personality to notice this kind of phenomenon.
I have been looking at history and these patterns as a novice but very much a student of history my whole life These patterns that Neil talks about in the 4th Turning are real. But I also looked at Philosophy to try to understand why these patterns seem to happen. I found that two ideals exist throughout history. They have had different names attributed to them, but ultimately come down to an ideal of the individual and the group. What I found is that one dominates a sacellum while the other exists in a minority state. Then it switches, for example The American revolution came about as a revolt of the tyrannical view of the individual over a society in King George, which offered that a group, The People, should be in charge of the society. That began to to alter society till the group ideal was dominate at the time of the Civil War. At that time the weaker view was rising up against the group with the ideal of the individual ideal is right and thus fighting against slavery. The prophet type generations spell out this quite well the minor ideal taking power from the dominate in a sacellum. The Awakening generation attacked the morals complacency, that is common among the ideal of the individual, promoting a more communal ideal. The Transcendental Generation spoke to the ideal of the individual with all the writings of non-conformity promoting the individual. The Missionary Generation brought about the ideals of the modern progressive ideals. The boomer who claim to be about community really was a very Me Generation leading to the society becoming very narcistic. By the time the forth turning arrives these ideals become poised to take over dominates from the opposing ideal. Today you see the weaker individual ideal fighting hard against the ideal of group. The individual ideals of Conservatives are fighting hard against the dominate ideals of progressive's and the ideal of group rights that dominate our culture at this time.
@Chad Siewert Well said. The liars have been ruling over mankind for a very long time, ensuring that “history” is only their projected story. See Proverbs 6:16. Pretty much everything there applies to the gang that has been really running America since the inception of the CIA.
I should add that the maxim about absolute power corrupting absolutely aptly applies to the mess created by the Deep State, leading inexorably to America’s fall. All the signs are there for all to see.
“If I had a nickel for each time that I’ve been put on ….”
th-cam.com/video/UBvSNRGWIO8/w-d-xo.html
@Chad Siewert I understand your caution.. but it still happens I would caution that we might think it would be different... that idea is why i think the cycle continues. What got me to study is all this is the statement I heard over and over again in 2020, "This has never happen before.." lol
@Chad Siewert this seems extremely interesting, do you have any more evidence for history being rewritten - and what motive would the powers at be, have for doing this?
@@vmanvand The one that gets me is the Eerie Canal. 4’ by 40’ by 400 miles, supposedly built in 8 years by unskilled laborers, before the invention of power tools or dynamite. Yeah, right.
Individualism and collectivism are not as starkly divided between conservatives and progressives as you suggest. Both conservatives and progressives are populists; quite collective. As one values the individualist ethic, the other values individual self-expression, particularly the left-leaning variety (more specifically, gender).
Just learning about this book now. One thing he seems to miss is the physical and psychological trauma of the WW2 generation. They came home with injuries and PTSD that went undiagnosed and untreated for their lifetime. I think that was a factor in the boomer cultural revolution and rejection of their parents.
I never thought about that before. This is probably one of the wisest (is that a word)comments I’ve read.
I learned about this concept from the etruscan philosophy, I automatically assumed the 4th turning would be a reference to that ancient concept or the works of spengler. It's nice to hear those ideas described on a simple manner.
I'm in a unique place. I'm 64 born at the end of the boomer generation in a family of six kids. My mom and dad were born in the mid twenties and lived thru the depression. My dad was a marine on Saipan and Tinian in WWll and served during Korea. My grandparents whom I knew were born in the 1880's which was 15 years after the civil war. I remember watching the old black and white tv and the news flash came on that Lincoln was assassinated 100 years ago. So when I think of WWll I see it as current events that shaped my world. I met people with tattoos on their forearms and a scar on the back of their head from having their head pushed into a nail so the Nazis could get their picture in the concentration camps. I learned first hand from people happened to survive the wars and depression. My grandparents were alive when many indian leaders were killed and the last souix uprising. So to cut it short, I feel like I'm in an alien world today with the wokeness and pretend racism and victimless victims today. I still remember the blue color of the sky before jets filled the air. When boys were boys and girls were girls and mom food from scratch every day and stayed home and dad worked three jobs and shift work. Society worked then.
Oh and we called it prejudice then. You see you can learn to not be prejudicial to people of any differences to yourself. Racism is a word that means you're evil and no hope of changing. Queers are now gay. Gay people were happy. Fags were cigarettes.
Well, here's to unique places and simpler times.🍹
Looking back at the 1980s now that I'm in my 40s...everything has changed.
the arrival of the digital age seemed to be a large part of it. We really didn't go outside to play after the advent of Nintendo and later on with PC's.
Still, when i was a teenager, i promised myself that i would never "freeze in time" when i became older. I learn the latest lingo, the latest tech, and try to get a feel for the times...its a hassle.
What i miss most from my 20s is that feeling of national unity, local community, and our ability to work through our differences civilly... but it's great to be on this side of the dirt, regardless. Maybe we'll be of some use later on, eh?
By the time you reach 40, you're usually willing to hand out a bit of advice to folks in their 20s...
Just a matter of finding one that wants advice...any luck yet?
They're VERY stubborn. 😁
My grandfather fought in WWII. I was lucky to have spent so much time with someone born before 1920. He died when i was 12 years old. my dad was born in the 50s. The one major change is access to information. The times were not simpler. The population was less informed. Even now, I show my father information from his young adult years that leaves him speechless. Given what you said about prejudice, it seems your family would not agree with the treatment of black veterans after ww2, but they probably didn't know that black vets were excluded from GI Bill as one example. Part of the 1960s was informing the population that problems existed they used television. Now we have the internet that provides an opportunity to disseminate information faster and with less restrictions.
Very interesting discussion right up until the end, when you both seem to assume that we in the west are ruled by democracies. Despite the blatant evidence to the contrary.
The "West" is, definitely IS a democracy! It might be (definitely is) ruled by "manufactured consent", but hijacked as it is, it still is definitely a democracy. Then again, I have read an article I lost track of, titled "The rise of illiberal democracies", postulating (clearly a true aspect) that a "democracy" is not necessarily a "liberal" "enlightened" governance with clearly defined human rights where the individual is a willing participant and benefits from rights that even supersede the needs and whims of the collective interests.
By democracies they really mean republics.
We are a constitutional republic. Not a democracy
Neil, please do an interview with Alison Morrow on her Rokfin platform. She would ask some really good questions. Please, please, please!!!
Neil Howe is brilliant, very intelligent researcher and writer. We are fortunate this channel allowed him to speak without interruption.
This was predicted and described in" Cosmos and Pstche" by Richard Tarnas. It is an astroloby book.
This was great, aside from the crypto ad, obviously.
Nice work on this one Mike, very informative, a great guest who was spot on, nevermind the charts, sometimes you gotta just shoot from the hip!
How do the "generational" calculations of 22 years correspond to the fact that life expectancy has significantly lengthened since the "Glorious revolution" US revolution, US civil war and even WWII ? Is there a Bayesian adjustment that ha been applied?
Maximum lifespan has not changed but most people have stopped dying in infancy and childhood.
Great vid. Seems like we should be combatting inflation by a combination of raising interest rates and cutting government spending. Not a popular solution but it may be the proper medicine for the next few months if not years.
I tell people who complain about the generation coming up...that each generation as its lessons to learn...
Also. Nothing like a possible war with a larger power to bring a nation together... no more polarization. Or division.
The war actually isn’t the crisis, because it’s not unifying people, it’s yet another attempt at the uniparty Boomer establishment trying to regain the narrative control.
The ascendant side in America is the convergence of Tucker Carlson, Glenn Greenwald & other left/right figures who are younger & unified mainly against the Boomers themselves.
Billy Idols first band Generation X in the late 70"s was the first mention of Gen X, fyi
Wow didn’t know that! Interesting fact!
Not true. It was in use long before that. I’m from Idols generation. It was used before the band came along.
I can't wait for this new book!
Do you know what the new book is tittled?
You've been getting some amazing guests. Nice work! If you dare, try having JR Nyquist on the show.
Superb Timely Interview! 👏
Biggest change came with solving task for micro payment for the internet and fix real save P2P comm with IPv6 as Dr Wright just spoke on Dubai conf. Getting rid of ad based internet - new generation will figure out. Nice
Generation X were also a good punk band in the late seventies and like the Kali Yuga things go through cycles of Birth Growth Decay Death
RayDalio is very smart and very successful. However, I think he’s got it totally wrong on China. You should interview Peter Zeihan, who has a new book coming out next month: The End of the World is Just the Beginning. He can explain why China is not the future but rather is on the verge of demographic and economic collapse.
I had a weird epiphany at 19:33 as an X-er. He's talking about multiple dimensions of cycles. Artificial intelligence could learn and connect those cycles in ways people can't. We just want to fix things. We invent things that will become the next nuclear bomb... The last Nomad generation invented the bomb and airplanes. Before that, didn't the last Nomads invent machine guns and trains? Some invention changed the Revolution, right? Well, I guess Gen-Xer are trying to go to Mars. But what SkyNet s*** are X-ers going to create? If only AI could help.... LMAO.
We passed the great society legislation during good times.
At least gen X is acknowledged
When referencing the GFC and the Ukrainian war, how does omitting any reference to the 18-year war in Iraq & Afghanistan, sponsored by the American military industrial complex, not help understand how global political views negatively impact the 4th turning and the world economy?
Democrats 2018: Orange man bad, he will start WWIII, he has to go!
Democrats 2022: We need to start WWIII!
Are we in WW3? Enlighten me because I don't see it
Great conversation. Thank you. Although those final comments about millennials and democracy are scary!
Democracy allowed to centralize ends up like the USA. A few people controlling the availability of crucial information the mass of people have access to with which to make competent decisions.
The tail ends up wagging the dog. We need more decentralization.
Do not listen to this man about democracy. Ever see Steve Bannon’s films?? They r of the same topics. Know who Steve Bannon is?? A political strategist, who with this man & others like Roger Stone, r attempting to instigate a forced turn or in other words, convince a large portion of the populace that our institutions r so tainted they need to b tore down & rebuilt. U know where u find this language?? Fascism 101. When a group seeking power does so camouflaged as something traditional (like the MAGA version of the Republican Party) only to then tear the system down from the inside & rebuild it as something more authoritarian. They don’t believe in democracy. They believe a small group of men can know better as to what is best for the country.
Incredible content!
According to the Strauss/Howe generational theory, the 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s will be the next saeculum's 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s (more or less) -- a first turning followed by a second turning. Given the level of division in the United States today, I wonder if the country can come together in a fashion similar to the post-WW2 era? Also, will the 2040s & 2050s be as volatile as the 1960s & 1970s were? Or will we get it out of our system in the 2020s?
JFK was assassinated just before the last second turning, Garfield was assassinated 5-10 years before the previous second turning, and William McKinley was assassinated during that second turning. Andrew Jackson just missed becoming the first US president to be assassinated near the end of the inaugural second turning of post-independence America (he was also the first POTUS to be the target of an assassination attempt.)
Much to look forward to the next few decades.
Van Neistat did a really interesting analysis of the book. Something he brought up was that different generations take on different archetypes with four archetypes per saeculum. One is an artist type, these are the people who came of age during the high era. The produce their art during the awakening era (20 years later). In the last turning, it was 1964-1984. Which was an incredible era for music and movies. You could easily make an argument that the best 20 year span of music of the entire 20th century was 1964-1984. 14 out of the top 20 albums in the Rolling Stone 500 Greatest albums came from that era. There was enormous creativity. That was the Beatles, Stevie Wonder, Michael Jackson, Led Zeppelin, The Clash, Pink Floyd. But then look at the films, The Godfather, Star Wars, Monty Python, Alien, Ghostbusters. That creative energy that came of age during the High Era went on to make perhaps the best examples of 20th century art.
If we have a high era after the 4th turning, it will start in the late 2020s or early 2030s. My wild guess, it will be signified by the election of a millennial for president in either 2028 or 2032, this person is likely someone who is currently not known in the body politic (its not AOC, its not Ben Shapiro). If this mirrors the last high era, there will be a lot of trust in institutions. I think it will be how we adapted to technology and a lot of disruptive technologies this decade, of which there are many, the 2020s are probably going to be the most disruptive decade ever. The real crises will be how this impacts society and then how we respond to it, painful for many at first but its something we must do. I would not be surprised if we see something that drastically brings down cost of living, such as automated building construction (where at least parts of the building are made in factories by robots, while the steel superstructure in the building is made by humans on site). But I also see a lot of institutional changes coming around. The last high era was extremely focused on institutional strengths, union membership, cheap college, cheap healthcare, housing policy that focused on affordable housing vs protecting neighborhood character. The things millennials really want were policies that were in the post WW2 high era.
I think if that sort of continues. It will be kids who were born starting in the late 2010s or even right around now. Kids who will be teenagers in the 2030s, at least the oldest of them. They will be the artist generation. And when they get to really creating in the late 2040s, they will go on to create groundbreaking works, likely the artwork (I want to say music and movies, but it could be something off our radar, it could be games, it could VR experiences, it could be books. But whatever it is, it will be of extreme cultural importance) will be known as the best of the best of the 21st century. The conflict won't be like Boomers vs Millennials, it will be like GI generation vs Boomers. It will be a cultural one. The Millennials and Gen Z will be the GI generation. We will probably HATE the new art. Much like how old people hated rock music of the 60s.
The thing about this current era, there is so much dysfunction an chaos that this can't last. The status quo is so ugly, especially for young people, that the more young people that age into it over the next decade the more social tension there will be. Something is going to have to burst. 40 million Americans will hit adulthood between now and 2030. They will be doing so in an increasingly hostile world. Something is absolutely going to have to change.
We will come together because the threat will be from the outside which always brings countries together. The Russia/Ukraine war is really a proxy war of the West against the East. We are seeing that invading Ukraine and the huge sanctions are leading to worldwide food shortages. Not to mention the already horrible supply chains issues and now a critical diesel shortage. We are entering another great depression in the sense that food will become scarce. We will have a world war in part because of the world trying to preserve limited resources. 4th turnings end in war. The new order will be a dominant China and a weak west but we will all be united again. This is just my guess.
We really should revive the West in a great act of parricide.
I really respect this guy, and I need to read his book. That said, I found him really hard to listen to here. After 10 minutes, I realized I had no idea what he was talking about. Not to mention, he desperately needs a proper mic setup...the sound quality from his end was poor. It sounded like he was speaking through a tin can and string.
Neil has some amazing knowledge.
I think this should have been tightened. It is a worthwhile conversation, but could be more focused/shorter.
Americas done some damage don't forget that.
Fantastic insights! Thanks, gentlemen!
The bigger the government the bigger the problems
A shame Strauss has passed on. I would have liked to hear his take on this.
Love Neils information and insights
What baby, really you talking enough interesting..... 😁im amazed of what you did with that data concerns?? Put it in this phase program, when i just will try to go ahead.
How does Howe see cycles? Planet orbits are elliptical, not circular. Sinusoidal like AC voltage? I remember reading about Hindu folklore referring to cycles as a snake biting its own tail.
Let's record "how to handle a crisis 101" for the next generation who has to handle a crisis. We can't have another Volker. The entire financial system would collapse.
Great conversation, enjoyed a high level view of where we are at this time in history. Thank you both.
Lets accelerate the solving of large insolvable problems plus side part of the 4th turning
I don't watch TV anymore, somebody plz bring me up to speed on what the first 3 turnings are. thx in advance.
Clearly the next step is recurring stimulus, first as tax rebates, then just straight cash money. Every fiat currency always chooses to print and hyper inflate vs not print and collapse the monetary system. So history shows us 100% how this ends. Hyperinflation and everyone finding the Bitcoin way.
I cant hear this one very well unfortunately. Neils mic super muffled. But will try make it through!
i take this back. f!@*&#%~! fascinating
i kind of expected more from this interview given how much people like the book
This was a happy surprise.
I find it strange the author never mentioned Sarkar, P.R., Human Society Part 2, Proutist Universal, Washington DC, 1967. Part 1, 1959.
Comparing Ray Dalio's egoist, self-serving and mostly irrelevant publications (of very little interest outside of his own orbit) to Howe's work was inappropriate, in my opinion. Dalio's mountain of gobbledygook is little more than a rich man with his own vanity publisher churning out dressy books that mean nothing.
All right let me try again the generational theory
excellent - Please have him back !!!
I think Nancy pelosi and Mitch McConnell are actually very happy with this status quo... It ain't broke for them$$$
This 4th turning is very much the replacing of the Baby Boomers (1944-1964) in roles of leadership with the millennials (1984-2005). Yes, skipping over the Genxers, the Millennials are proving to be more like their own grandparents (GI’s and Silents) than their parents. This millennial generation is more responsible, more grounded, more caring, more sensitive than their parental counterparts who grew-up in the 1970’s and 1980’s.
This shift in power structure is painful to the still-alive but retiring Boomers and the Genxerrs who never took their role as leaders.
Look at AOC, she is the new congresswoman, very much in the minority of congresspeople now, we will see her contemporaries rise to take seats in the House, she will soon be a Senator, and who knows, God forbid President.
This enormous passing of the torch of power is what embodies the notion of the 4th turning.
Expect our future in the west to be one of Socialism, Cancel Culture, LGBTQ+, racial minority elevation, and income equality. Save the earth, climate change, the great reset all rolled into one happy millennial family, with the Genxers, and the Baby Boomers protesting, longing for the good ole days when Donald Trump was the savior.
Millennials are nothing whatsoever like their grands !
The millenial generation began in 1981
@@bluefernlove Neil Howe and William Strauss coined the term “Millennial Generation” in 1987. They use 1984 as the beginning of the generation. They use 20 to 23 years in each generational cohort. They defined the Baby Boomers as 1944-1964, Generation X as 1965-1984, and the Millennials as 1984 to 2005. You must have about 20 years separating the generations so 1981 would be too early and would be encroaching on the X’ers time. They are the experts not me.
I only see good things in your statement! It’s something I hope for honestly
Studies are finding millennials are more conservative than generation x and baby boomers as they age!
34:07 “chaos is a ladder.”
Bitcoiners and libertarians will be the winner after the fourth turning and the world we build will be decentralized
Yes. But not the crippled and taken / forked away btc segwit fork that does not work with smart contracts at scale and stable Satoshi compliant. Lets see
I think it's like the ice engine the internal combustion engine it's a four-stroke cycle so you can try to relate the intake stroke of a car and then second you have the combustion stroke and then third you have the power stroke, and then the four stroke the exhaust and then you go back to number one the intake remember it does this 10 times a second at idle
At 39 minutes he talks about what I call the nightmare scenario, that things just keep going on as they have been. This is the decline path and seems more and more likley to happens as time goes on an nothing happens.
ok Ukraine is horrible, but also talk about the people killed on the basis of a lie in Irak or in Afghanistan.
@@ilevakam316 I am aware of this, as well as of the remote killing by drones in countries where the US has no legal authority. The 240000 victims of the war in Afghanistan are hardly mentioned, while every single window broken in Ukraine is headline news.
Or syria, libya, ethiopia, somalia, yemen, etc. Crickets from mainstream media
@@tatagata6268 Indeed, we get the entire Western media screeching with rage and running wall to wall coverage when a Russian airstrike kills three civilians, but near total silence from the same people over the hundreds of thousands Yemeni children who have died under the US and UK supported Saudi blockade of Yemen that has been going on for years.
It's a great insight into the fact that most people have no consistent principles (i.e. "war is bad whoever does it" or "war is acceptable as a tool of foreign policy by any nation" would both be consistent lines to take). Instead it's simply "war is bad when I'm told it's bad by the media, and fine when it's not". The effctiveness of emotional manipulation is amazing, lots of people now HATE Russia and Russians purely because of the media. Even more ironically it's the same sort of people who love to say that they would have been against Japanese internment or McCarthyism or other moral panics.
360p... where are we uploading these from? cardano blockchain?
Yes it has.
Rebellion by immature individuals is a characteristic. Seldom is there any basis other than lack of understanding or basic time it takes to learn a broader view of reality.
Neil should invest in a mic.
It's quite interesting pattern. As a millennial myself I was not at all impressed with my boomer parents Growing up I was quite close with my silent Gen grandparents and wanted to be more like them but keep more of the individually of the boomers.
Boomers had it all too easy and they are very self centered as a whole, and simply will not give up from positions of power. Looke at all the extreamly old boomers STILL in politics! Come on guys retire already! The next election cycle looks again like a race of even older boomers.
@54:20 we seen that I the markets.. 2020/2021 ... I will amazed if 25 years from to today we end up having a $amc or $gme ape becomes a fed chairman or treasurer.
Can we get Neil back on semi monthly??
Just as the conversation was getting really interesting, you pull the plug because of time restraints? I demand overtime!
anyone remember the last time a nuclear power had a civil war
The 1 hour minute mark is the most important part of this whole video
We are on a cycle because we are a giant SimCity type game for aliens.😝
We need a part 2
Thewithdrawal of the USA into a North American regional economy rather than the current global economy wil lead to higher inflation. But when completed it will lead to a US boom.
Both parties are leaderless and Biden likely lame duck. Have to hope millennial generation steps in soon. Not part of this podcast but Neil Howe has commented how Gen-X is generally apolitical. Also most political leadership on cusp of aging out this decade.
Hence the crisis period.
I think Zoomers will step up before Millennials can take over. It messes up the Theory, but there were only 3 Turnings before the Civil War. Maybe there will be 5 before we resolve the current crisis.
This is why RFK is the candidate for 2024.He is the only voice of change and unity.
This is really monotonous
My mom watches The Honeymooners with that guy yelling I told her that's why she probably yells and my grandmother was mean.I know she learned it from that show pretty horrible those actors were possessed.
Neil Howe is softest of soft scientists. All narrative little data.
Not everyone can be Dr. Fauci
@@SuspendedLogic Thank God! One Fauchi is, in my opinion, one too many.
yes, because keynesians and their fancy data and charts got us sooooo far
You probably would argue the same about Machiavelli. Understanding these ideas is actually the key to understanding power, because those in power clearly noticed cyclical patterns of human behavior, & weaponized them to gain more power. The science of understanding power cannot be driven by data.
Said no one who has read any of his books ever
Actually bought and read the book. No statistics or graphs. Only narrative. Concept interesting and I get it but rather boring to read for me personally. A summary is enough
Strauss was the great mind of the two. Gone too soon.
I was just wondering if the 4th turning applies to USA only or the whole world. I mean many other countries are just fine.
Look around the world, pretty much no country is "just fine". The few that might qualify are in Scandinavia and they are at more danger than ever of being drawn into armed conflict with Russia - particularly Finland.
John Xenakis is a “generationist” who holds the pattern is universal.