El-Erian: The Fed is Going to Have to Decide Between Two Policy Mistakes
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ส.ค. 2024
- Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and President of Queens' College Cambridge discusses the dollar's strength, the impact of a Windfall Tax in the UK, and the Fed's path forward.
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I love Mohamed, he's such a great teacher, he makes things so understandable with no BS you always come away better for having heard him.
One of the few "market experts" i actually believe knows what he is actually talking about and doesn't try to sound smarter than he is (and he is very smart obviously) but he speaks like a person trying to convey information rather than stroke his ego, when Mohamed speaks I listen very closely.
1000000% agree. he gives off such a great vibe too. would have loved to have him as a professor, the UK is lucky to have him
For real 110%
Applying more taxes on oil companies will just drive prices higher. That’s a really dumb idea
OF COURSE IT WILL, ANYONE with a basic concept of economics KNOWS THIS
Right u r. That said, these multinationals have a way to easily their shelter income from the tax man.
Yes but Biden has had many Jimmy Carter moments already so he will try to have windfall profit taxes. The progressives have to be out of power in the House or this could happen. BTW, this Carter era scheme worked so poorly, congress had to repeal that tax a years later! due to its higher administrative burden on the oil industry and the IRS and “the recognition that the tax kept domestic oil production below what it would have been without the windfall profits tax
Yeah, let's just keep spending billions upon billions subsidizing the fossil fuel industry and starve the newcomers like solar, wind and batteries. That'll fix all them Dems. Of course, it'll fry the earth for our kids and grandkids but what the hell.
After 40 years of starving the national bank balance by continually cutting income and sales taxes on the multinationals, other mega corporations and the rich, we have seen our national debt skyrocket. And those 3 forces are demanding even more tax cuts for themselves which they'll squirrel away in offshore bank accounts, investment securities over seas, moving even more American and Western middle class jobs overseas and keep swallowing all their divide and conquer tactics like QAnon.
@@break1722 where were your statements concerning apple, tesla, google, amazon and Facebook?
Trillion dollar companies, the first in the world.
How is it THEY are allowed whatever profits they can earn without your interest or scorn?
People were calling him Mohamed El-Bearian all the time but he has been right on every single point so far... He even said take chips off the table because this is a bear market rally a couple months ago and was 100% right
Actually no he hasn't all through 2020 and 2021 he was wrong. If you repeat the same thing enough eventually you will get it right.
Permabear is sometimes right
Don't fight the rapidly shrinking M2 money stock
He was only wrong because the fed money printing machine went in to overdrive and printed trillions. This is the biggest fake economy ever! The ppp program made a bunch of millionaires! Only 20 % of the money reached employees. It the biggest fraud ever.
@@bmwlane8834 wrong is wrong anyone that listened to him missed out on epic rallies
Profits on commodity producers rise and fall with underlying product. Windfalls are the reward for remaining solvent during tough times. Remove the benefit of the high end of the cycle and production shortages will follow.
They are misusing the term windfall. Companies produce products for profit and, I expect, for all the profit they can make. A windfall implies a benefit for having done nothing such as the government deeming all student loans canceled or the government deciding to make itself entitled to a piece of someone else's profits by declaring a windfall tax.
Ya they want to do windfall taxes on commodities but by god let’s not do windfall taxes in tech stocks and real estate.
It removes any incentive whatsoever to invest in additional supply when prices are high. You basically ensure prices will stay high all the time
@@MarketFund2k Think you got that backwards. You only pay taxes on profit, if you reinvest the money your tax rate is zero. So if the tax rate is higher, the incentive is to reinvest the money so you can avoid paying the higher tax rate.
The reward for staying solvent, is that you get to stay solvent. You think companies will purposefully try to bankrupt themselves to avoid paying taxes?
People forgetting the biggest oil consumer is still in Lockdown. Once they will reopen we will have oil not under 180$. That’s a giant economy to reopen
*China
Lool America wants a Liberal Internationalist regime in Venezuela for the same reason.
I love this guy. Always interested in what he has to say
El-Erian is brilliant and rational. He’s been right more than anyone else.
This 9 minutes passed like 3.
Lisa,
At about 7:35 did I here you say "best ouch come"
Thank you for the wonderful new phrase.
I'll be using that in some future conversation.
Mohamed is right since last summer.
He's been right all along no one is listening.
he has the best analysis of the whole market...unlike the FED in the US. FED broke things....
In what way?
Wand mostly wrong before last summer … so useless BS anyway for long term buy and hold
@@pbeekharry True, he’s the best analyst, no competition
Windfall Profits tax??? Pure engineered economy Bravo Sierra. So the Gov. gets to decide profit levels? Yeah that works out well.
Temporary taxes always become permanent.
Thank you for being at the top of your field
Thanks you too Anita for your wonderful response, how was your day going ❤️❤️❤️
Increasing money supply will be it. Currently, the system works by capital formation and paying back the loans to let other cogs flow but no payment and bond creation of us Treasury
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank a subscriber
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Energy costs are a huge factor in the current inflation problem.
Ouuuuuuu
Tell us something we don’t know
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Lol. Thanks captain obvious
He didn't mention it, which surprised me, because it is so obvious.
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Stocks should be long term holds. Very tricky to not sell while losing value but eventually they should come back if you have enough diversity in your portfolio.
When you worry and want to sell, you should probably be buying.
A demand pause would not be good for risk assets?
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What's not to like for the FED? Why would they give up the high rates when were still floating high percentages of greedflation? The T10Y3M is STILL negative. We'll be 'lucky' to get any rate cuts this year.
It was a mistake to bring on el-erian. All he says is I knew, but I didn't tell you before hand.
Who in their right mind was buying today? I don’t plan on spending a dime until after July, at least.
That guys eyebrows win the show
"The solution to all our issue, is a surge in productivity" -Mohamed El-Erian
"Productivity is a bit player. The only real solution is to stop printing money and to stop government spending" -Milton Friedman
Core CPI in Germany is less than 3%. all of the inflation is in energy and food. How rate raise is going to solve that? Do you mean we increase the rates till people lose their jobs and wouldn't have money to eat or heat?
its 3.8% which is over the double the average for the last 2 decades. Households only represent about a quarter of energy consumption in Germany. You raise rates to encourage people to save money instead of spend it. People stop buying unnecessary luxury goods. Food producers have less competition from luxury goods producers for energy and shipping capacity. If there are layoffs from producers of luxury goods, food and energy producers will have better access to labor in order to expand production. Basically food and energy prices will fall, because resources will be redirected from making all the stupid stuff people don't need, to the important stuff they do need.
@@nerdstrangler4804 Do you know that most of the food price increase is due to higher rates? The profit margin on food commodities is low.
@@nerdstrangler4804 All that you say is nothing but communism. Here is one more thought for your afternoon break. what if we decrease the rate and also let the energy section grow. that way energy prices will drop, food prices become cheaper, and prosperity increases. people don't work hard to just feed themselves, there is more to life...
@@AH-fm7rj Ahh yes, the age old strategy of reducing prices with expansionary monetary policy.
I gotta admit my memory is a bit fuzzy. Do you think you could remind me of a single example of when that has ever happened?
Free newton's pair
Too strong for the rest of the world. He spittin
The Fed totally dropped the ball last September.
Hence the aquaoonics hydroponic system commercial grade for churn of output and incorporate into food processing which we should been working on but pissed it all away.
Mo's support of the windfall tax shows he is extremely bullish on oil. Windfall taxes will increase the price of oil, lower the supply and make inflation higher. These people are looking to get rich, nothing else.
You are correct, however there are two sides to windfall taxes.
1, companies cannot afford to operate at a loss and thus stop producing, thus supply disappears
Or 2, they operate with the taxes in place and just charge MORE to offset them.
Either way prices go up
Mr. El-Erian is one of the most respected, well-versed, exceptionally unbiased and knowledgable financial sources this world has seen in a long time. No tout, not dump and pump. Just a thoughtful, reliable take on whatever the current financial environment is.
Circulation which means m2 increases and when PRODUCT gets here could be if but that would cause so much inflation because of lack of savings and the needs of consumption that we are used to. Exporting inflation to other countries like producers will only compress margins and job cuts for heavy cost savings. Once that's been reached you would crate more mid level decent paying jobs. If products come in ...
This is the result of Powell only caring about the stock market....the country should come first not the stock market...they should eliminate it if they cant think if the people first.
Stock and housing market. We'll still get that extended recession we should've had in March 2020 but now we have trillions of dollars more in debt.
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El Erian is a nugget, PIMCO learned that the hard way
I don't understand how Tom Keene is still on TV. This guy wanted to be a professor?
Windfall tax = $200 oil 😂
Yes, it does
But Saudi Arabia not UK have full control of the supply curve.
dollar milkshake theory
I’m still not clear how when faced with famine, money would have more value than food. How do wealthy economies import food without suffering from price increases that crowd out other imports. In principle a global market in agriculture and food, with inelastic demand, and insufficient supply should increase the cost of food until it finds a new equilibrium above other goods? And what would accomplish an equal distribution of food globally, if markets lead to caloric excess in one region, and and caloric shortage in another? Also, how is it that a billion head of cattle globally can get market access to sufficient grain, when humans cannot? And while beef prices have risen, they don’t reflect cost inputs that should come from supply shortages of grain. Incidentally, neither does beef reflect the cost of methane that is in turn increasing the cost of food in some areas that do not produce industrial GHG, agricultural GHG from animal consumption, or financial manipulation through monetary policy or speculation.
Because market dynamics do not disappear in famine environments.
When you understand the complexities associated with what a famine implies, it means people SELLING their goods to acquire currency to obtain food, barring straight barter.
As a result, huge excesses of goods appear overnight as a result of needing food. In this case that means houses, land, vehicles, art, household items, etc
As these items become rapidly available, they lose value in terms of price.
This causes a vast issue concerning what someone can trade for food.
In this environment, as gold and silver historically always hold their value, relative to all other assets, they become useful in acquiring whatever it is that is sought.
The currency of dollars will be worthless, but REAL MONEY, gold and silver will maintain purchasing power in use for simple exchange for items such as food, because it will be the only thing those producing food will be willing to trade for their food
**this response is only meant to answer your sentence regarding how money will be more valuable than food
Beyond the value of money question, it seems as though you are asking how a country can acquire all the goods they need in a price rising environment without reducing imports of certain goods over others.
The simple answer is, they cannot.
However in our Keynesian BS world, can’t is just another word for money printing.
Every country runs trade deficits in order to “finance” (borrow: owe) the acquisition of the goods they need regardless of price, promising to pay the financial burden of the difference in the future when things “return to normal”
Of course this is known as borrowing your way to prosperity, or going perpetually into debt with the delusion that you are getting rich. It is also extremely inflationary. And “normal” never returns, and even if it does, they never pay down their deficits.
Debt equals net negative, Wealthy equals net positive.
In order to be wealthy, you not only cannot have any debt, but you must have positive cash flow and a productive economic environment.
This world has deluded itself into believing debt is real money and therefore more debt equals more wealth
There won’t be a famine, It’s all scaremongering. Everything is scaremongering as it beats raising rates as a means to reduce demand.
Hey i also have that calculus book he shows in his library on the lower left (black).
So the middle class deals with the brunt of this problem. Here’s what they are doing. The oil companies make record profits, then the government taxes said companies keeping some of the money for themselves and giving the poor a , most likely, small portion. What does the middle class get? We get to pay for every thing. This is really getting old!
You can't raise taxes they are already high for most countries.
Inflation will still be above 6% going into September. If the Fed wants to avoid stagflation they will need to continue 0.5% hikes for the remainder of the year. If interest rates reach 4.5% by April of next year then they have a chance of avoiding entrenched inflation and possibly getting inflation down to 3% by end of 2023.
U make some sense but still lose money like most these guest speakers lol…
but but the stock market! lol
The F doesn’t want a resilient market with higher stock and bond prices at the moment. They want people to be concerned about finances and spend less to reduce market demand. So the market rallying a lot now isn’t what F wants whilst inflation is still so high. But the market is still doing that right now with people buying the dip.
Wont happen. Raising rates that high will suck out more in interest payment that the Federal gov will have to make. Progressives want that money to grow social programs and hire gov workers who vote Dem. We're screwed if the house stays DEM
The fed doesn’t have the political will to do the right thing. They’ve been dragging their feet even after they HAD to admit they were wrong about the transitory nonsense
the new dip is short sp500 ex-energy
No more taxes!! The needy would just create more needy politicians.
These fedsters and Davos rich are the problem
Institutional investors went into cash.
Only RETAIL is still buying stocks. They will get destroyed … again 🙄
Nah… buy hold world economy always win unless the world is going into toliet, so b it. I still has millions in other types …. traders, gamblers, speculators underperforms the market …
@@hl3641 It’s your money. Do with it whatever you want. But in general: RETAIL always loses in situations like this.
@@hl3641 not until u lost ur job and have to sell ur your stocks at a loss. Its better to have some cash right now
Temporary. That's funny. It will be permanent. Duh.
We need to manufacture and produce here in the USA. We need to build global infrastructure projects like China is doing. What has this country become?
U can’t, each country, person has something good at producing BEST.. that’s global efficiency and humanity working together… should not limited by artificial “boarders”
Yeah, like Trump was doing.
This country has become the largest debtor nation on earth and in history.
It exports its inflation in the form of printed currency, or debt.
Dollars are IOU’s.
We buy goods from the world with promises of debt in the form of purchasing power.
I'd say if China is really about to decouple then this 40 year project called Globalization has brought nothing but poverty stricken West nations! We brought this to ourselves btw thru Sanctions! LETS GO BRANDON!
El-Erian is a brilliant mind.
Wish he was the white house economist consultant.
Sorry this guy is persona non grata! He’s been a critic of US economic policies for years. No US government of institution will ever hire him again. He can stay and blah his way out on TV until retirement
@@Nimitz_oceo look at the American economy, then you'll find that he was right.
There is no such thing as a temporary tax Mohamed
If the demand is collapsed due to FED action either way it will not good for equity market - wort watching
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The WEF report on paths of globalization was quite interesting. I'm wondering if the World Organization are preparing for more nationalist regimes and thus more protectionist regimes forming. Would that also mean that companies will lessen off shore labour over the next decade and a half if work becomes more automated.
Also usa and Canada both are energy self sufficient and have record high gas prices. It’s fishy
He is a PERMA-BEAR!!!!!🤣
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Not strong enough for Canadian Dollar.
Good point. Or the Australian.
US should get away from EU as soon as possible. Tax,tax ,tax. The cream will rise to the top, and the rest will fall.
Consider this Dr. El-Erian: there are only two commodities the US exports: debt and guns. And a strong dollar is good for both. As for a softish landing, have you seen a flight simulation landing of an A380 with an unextended landing gear? Better than crashing to be sure but pretty ugly nonetheless.
No new taxes!!!!😤😡
Don't look at profit. It's ESG play anyways
This is why I invest heavily in Chinese stocks, I talk about those companies on my TH-cam channel wealthy mindset Nio
When economy bad bring on a permabear when economy good a permabull. That’s game theory
Naw... we need a lawyer tax. 1$ per word.
Inflation is strangling our economy & the family budget is gasping for air, there is none.
Yes the DEMS know they are to blame and so are playing to their base with cries for abortion and gun controls. So sad.
if you called united state strong currency? Why are other country going away from the dollar. That give me a warning sign who is bluffing about there interview. Action is louder than just words.
Q) how much % financial disaster impact is the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and 5 more countries + the disruption by the con of the artificially inflated value of bitcoin /Crypto Currency will these have in inducing the USA/UK /EU RECESSION
We are going to f-n crash, dude !
LOL "soft landing". ←you can't taper a Ponzi scheme.
Demand on (oil) energy are falling
Come on, seriously? Mr. El-Erian can't understand the talk of two rate hikes and a pause? Ever hear of the midterm elections? Let's see now, two more months of rate hikes takes us out to August. The elections are in early November. I wonder how many people understand that continued FED tightening out past August and into September and October is almost certainly going to be felt negatively by both the economy and financial markets? You think anyone might want neither of those things to be front and center going into the midterms? So floating that two rate hike and pause headline now makes it a lot easier to manifest it into reality later. At least that's the plan and hope of many. Ultimately, if inflation continues to rocket higher and higher, the two rate hikes and pause might become the on your mark, get set, go......
Inflation doesn’t need to Rocket higher. If the rate of change moderates we still have energy prices too high, effecting the cost of everything. Biden and the democrats want big oil under their thumb, independent drilling and clean coal and natural gas too. They want to control energy, climate, healthcare- you name it. Greedy demons don’t care about people
Two rate hikes plus QT from now to September plus two consecutive negative GDP reports results in a recession and total economic collapse.
Your premise of governmental consideration concerning the political sphere of elections long presupposes the outcome not already having occurred, which of course it will
@@tetrahedral3921 things are really messed up when raising interest rates 2.25 percent and pulling 85 billion dollars a month out of the economy for 3 or 4 months can throw US into an economic collapse. What worked In the 1970s and popular theory says base lending needs to be at least near the inflation rate to stop inflation.
This is herd politically correct cowardice when financial and economic leaders can’t talk about the true problems, which is terrible political leadership that wants to regulate, tax,squeeze energy production and spend on social programs while the barn burns. The obsession with vaccine mandates, lockdowns and desire for control isn’t really letting up completely. We need freedom to unshackle economic power, since fiscal and monetary excessiveness has now proven no substitute for economic freedom and free choices
Bond market indicating we have a problem coming!
It's particularly difficult to have women's participation in San Antonio, TX, where I can tell you I was hypnotized & continually tortured for several months, for trying to get a master's degree in Special Education, & then chased around by noises, which were extremely painful, from 1996 until recently ( as in weeks, but still happens). Did anyone stop these animals? No. The police contributed. The FBI agent to whom I was finally transferred ( I had tried a few times before), asked if I was joking. The doctors still claim that there is no skin infection preventing me from walking, wearing shoes, a bra, etc. I know they will be going to jail, eventually, but why is it taking so long? ( Lance's wife, still waiting for justice).
With heat from data centers could be used which was mentioned. And incorporate into obviously food banks for distribution. Where utility tokens will be utilized for checking off subscription availability and conversion of the utility tokens for debit and credit offsets
More like tap the brakes and risk inflation at 20%
“Most vulnerable” ffs. At what point do we say that you have personal responsibility
What a horrible thumbnail.
If this is game theory what are all of these fund managers getting paid for?
timing? I guess.
Daffy knock off the BS
The Central Bank of Russia increased the limit for transferring money abroad for individuals - from $10,000 to $50,000. Switzerland, UK stop the black withdrawal of money from Russia. What are our poor people dying for, for the opportunity to live well rich in Europe?
He is a sad a.s.s.
hunger and absolute poverty will afflict advanced developed countries as well. maybe up to a quarter of their population.
thats by design under Late Stage Capitalism.
@@sreckohorvat2298 no it always happens... when every society ends they destroy themselves. Stop blaming it on capitalism, the problem is corruption and no system escapes it. Even communism or socialism because we are humans and we always make the same mistakes, we just learn to repeat them differently. You will see.
@@thomasnadeau535 yes there are always risks of bad people taking over. Late Stage Capitalism takes that risk and incentivizes it - Ever notice how all the corruption and evil is by the hands of extremely wealthy old Capitalists?
Jay-Z said it "Nice guys finish last with their special set of rules" and to draw the counter conclusion, under this LSC model, the evil and corrupt guys finish first and become wealthiest because Capital pays them handsomely for that behavior
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EL ERIAN is furious whenever the market is up. Probably has a big short position. Good luck.
he said in end of march 2020 that equities would not only do well but overshoot as rates went to zero. journalists were rolling their eyes... he was super bullish and was right. He was also right to become bearish in november. we are obviously seeing a bear market rally (these can last weeks btw). just look at history: 2003, 2009, 2012, 2018, 2020... the bear market stops AFTER the Fed is done or uturns, never b4 when markets are just hoping the fed uturns. And there is plenty of time to jump in once Fed uturns. on the contrary: bear market rallies are super quick as mostly short covering (and here we are as put/call ratios are already since friday afternoon back at april levels= complacency)
@@dnap1991 you can only be right for a few times and be wrong one time huge. Example is Melvin Capital that shutdown after meme stock short squeeze. Shorting the market is far more dangerous than accumulating shares or dollar cost averaging
Yeah a surge of productivity will help us - would be great if happened among woman. Hear that - everyone work, more work harder, and those parents who stay at home - woman or men - get back to the office. Wow, just wow. I like this guy, he has been closer to right to the start of this but if this is a solution you can keep it.
Productivity is ALWAYS the economic solution to inflation, supply shortages, and employment issues.
However, it’s easier to just print currency than actually employ effort, so…
I gave up hard work a while back, it too expensive.
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