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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 มิ.ย. 2023
- #nbadraft #nba
To start off, let's demystify the draft lottery odds. We all know that the worst teams in the league have the highest chance of securing the top draft pick. If your team finished in the top 16 teams, you won't be part of the draft lottery. The best team in the regular season receives the 30th pick, while the 16th best team gets the 15th pick. The second round is determined by team records, with the best team picking 60th and the worst team picking 31st.
Now, let's focus on the odds for the three worst teams in the league, as they have the highest likelihood of acquiring a favorable pick. The NBA has established that these teams have the exact same odds of obtaining the first through fourth pick. This change was implemented to discourage teams from intentionally losing games to improve their chances. It's no fun for fans to watch their team actively try to lose, right? So, if you're one of the three worst teams, your odds for the number one pick are 14%, 13.42% for the second pick, 12.75% for the third pick, and 11.97% for the fourth pick.
For example, the Detroit Pistons, being the worst team this year, ended up with the fifth pick. Some may argue that it's what they deserved because "God curses those who tank." On the other hand, the Houston Rockets, the second-worst team, had the potential to get the sixth pick but fortunately landed the fourth pick instead. The San Antonio Spurs, who had the third-worst record, surprisingly secured the number one pick, which many speculate will be used on the highly coveted Victor Wembanyama.
There are often rumors of the draft being rigged, especially when a highly sought-after player like Wembanyama ends up with a team known for its success. However, the lottery system is designed to be fair. The lottery machine is filled with balls, and four balls are randomly selected in order, forming a series of numbers. Each team has specific combinations of numbers associated with them. Representatives from every team are present to ensure that there's no funny business going on. In the past, the draft lottery was conducted in a less sophisticated manner, with David Stern drawing an envelope from a glass case. This led to conspiracy theories, such as the 1985 draft where it was speculated that the NBA froze the New York Knicks' envelope for Stern to grab and give them the number one overall pick.
Now that we've covered how the lottery works, let's move on to traded picks. Teams have the ability to trade their future picks, allowing for interesting dynamics. For example, the Chicago Bulls' pick, as mentioned earlier, belongs to the Orlando Magic. The Magic acquired this pick in a trade involving Vucevic in 2021. This year, the Magic have the sixth and eleventh picks. However, the pick they obtained from the Bulls was protected, meaning if the Bulls had secured the first through fourth pick, they would have kept it. This protection ensures that teams don't feel foolish for trading away a pick that turns out to be a game-changing player.
On draft night, we often witness teams making trades to move up and secure a player they really want. A classic example is the Dallas Mavericks trading up for Luka Doncic. Doncic fell to the third pick, and the Mavs, with the fifth pick, knew they had to make a move. They called the Atlanta Hawks, who had the third pick, and the two teams swapped picks. The Mavs acquired Doncic, while the Hawks selected Trae Young with the fifth pick. In this case, the Mavs had to give up their first-round pick the following year, which ended up being Cam Reddish.
Now, let's delve into the fascinating world of Rookie Scale contracts. These contracts are generally long and cheap deals that adjust with the salary cap. The position you're drafted in correlates with your salary. For example, next year Victor Wembanyama will be making $9 million, while Bradley Beal will be making a staggering $47 million. As you can see, Rookie Scale contracts are relatively affordable. The lower you're picked in the first round, the lower your salary will be. The player selected last in the first round this year will make $1.8 million.
Technically, Rookie Scale contracts are four-year deals, but their length can vary depending on certain factors. The first two years of the contract are fully guaranteed. For example, Wembanyama will receive $9 million in his rookie year and $9.6 million in his sophomore year, regardless of any unforeseen circumstances. The last two years of the contract are team options. The team isn't obligated to pick up these options, which means that a player could potentially become a free agent at the end of their sophomore season if the team decides not to exercise their option.
For second-round picks, the Rookie Scale contract doesn't apply. These players usually sign two-way contracts, 10-day contracts, or, if they're fortunate, one-year league minimum contracts, which typically amount to around a million dollars. - กีฬา
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so the nets aren’t getting victor wadnajajdx
Nah, rest assured wadnajajdx is going to the Nets
@@whatslaps him and bridges 2024 finals push
They have no draft picks 😮😅😅😅
this aged well
The tanking problem is always a bit of an issue, I know they’re trying to help resolve it. I wonder why they don’t show the balls being drawn instead of just showing the results of what happened. Overall I think it’s a decent “system” how they structure rookie contracts, seems to make it work and make sense for teams and players to get what they want/deserve.
That's a good point. I don't know why they don't televise the ping pong balls. It's possible people might think it's too confusing. It's simpler to just read the envelope. IDK. The rookie scale contracts are necessary, I think they work for the team and the player. Alternatively they could allow the two parties to negotiate themselves that could be interesting.
Finally, I got a notification for this channel!!!
Glad you did! the YT app and can be a little wack.
Great video (as always)
Thank you for the encouragement. stay blessed
Love your vids bro
Glad you're feeling them, fam!
Love the vids
thanks! I'm glad you like em!
Thanks!
papa bless
Bro, i need help, im currently 16 and is turning 17 in september, i havent played any sort of pro basketball, but ive been grinding, i am finishing school in november 2024. I am planning to go to uni for hoops when i turn 18. I am internation born outside the USA and if i go to uni at 18, can i do the "One and done rule" to make the nba a yr later, or when is the earliest i can make it?
yeah, you could do a year in college or alternatively you could do a year of professional ball (OTE, G League, international)
are their other sports you like that you will cover? P.S. the mullet suits you well
Not yet. Sometimes I get into other sports tangentially. If I can make this my main gig, I'd like to venture into other subjects I'm interested in. Also thanks!
@@whatslaps soccer pls
I would have a lot of catching up to do.
@@whatslaps with Messi coming to merica never been a better time!
I think I'd do a self-help/philosophy channel first. Basketball is just a gateway into making content.
Wait so can you explain lottery percentages? How do they come in play. Are there more lottery balls for the teams with the highest percentage?
no the worse teams have more combinations than the good teams.
How do you now have more subs man
subs will come
I still don't understand how they work :/
tbh. be neither :/
W vid
thank you for the W, brother.
My knicks ❤😢🎉😊 5:56
Go knicks!
You forget the people who are after the 60. The undrafted what happens to them?
same as the second round. agents call around get them tryouts, usually end up in the gleague or 2 ways
why the hell is there even a draft in US sports??! for a country try at meant to be capitalist and free market this is weird.
in Europe, e.g football, we just find players and offer them a contract. player decides to accept or accepts another team
that's a good point. you should check out my video on the NBA being socialist. The main reason is the league needs to be competitive to be entertaining. There's not as much competition in Europe amongst leagues.
@@whatslaps please share a link to the video.
Although this is a video about NBA, my question was about drafts in US sports in general. and why is it linked to college (and college grades I believe)?
In the UK, where I live, if a kid is talented enough he gets contracted into the clubs academy. Under 16 it’s not a pro contract but I believe it covers things like travel, subsistence, and football (soccer) gear. You are tied to the club. so another pro club can’t come along and just take you away. well they can, but at U16 it’s not a tied down contract like an adult, so yes you can change clubs but it’s not simply a case of quitting a pro club today, join a new pro club tomorrow.
the clubs have zero link to the schools, colleges etc. as a matter of fact, under contract with a pro club, you may have certain clause such as you can’t play for the school or an amateur club or do some dangerous activities like parachuting.
At 16, if your good enough, you may be offered a full professional contract. this is irrelevant to your school or college results.
the above is typical of most football systems around the world. at least those that have pro football.
so yeah am puzzled why in the US it’s linked to college? it seems, if you’ve not made it at the sport in college and then drafted then you can’t make it at all later in life? am i correct?
I know of English players who played amateur football and were spotted by scouts in their twenties and made it pro and became world class players. eg Ian Wright.
i mean the draft system seems kinda interesting and simple to me, You do well in college/ whatever academy u went to and boom you get picked and plus undrafted players can still get contracts it’s just not guaranteed
@@darthhorror0HD my friend who lives in the US has since enlightenment me about this. He said that in the US, it’s to give each team an equal chance of getting top players. That’s not how it is in the rest of the world. there is promotion and relegation. In fact it’s a more true capitalistic system. Most pros in Europe for example, do not yet pass high school grades. They get there contract at 16 and that’s it.
@@anfieldreds_1892 my point was it’s a much easier system to understand and also most top teams don’t get any top tier player they usually trade their draft pick to another team that needs it for a missing piece of their team
So, if the Spurs get the first pick again in 2024, then we know it’s rigged? lol
Not necessarily. True randomness has a lot repetition. If a new team gets it every year, that'd actually be more evidence of interference.
@@whatslaps I was joking - but I take/agree with your point; subject to the number of possible permutations, as I’m sure you’d agree anyway … … … Mind you, no such thing as ‘random’ (only unpredictable), in the first place! 😉
@@whatslaps I’m a Celtics and Spurs fan - so happy days! 😊