I usually agree with most of analysis by Mr. Stubb, but in this case i cannot agree with his assertion that Putin did not inform Xi about plans of starting his "SMO". I am fairly certain they agreed on this with hopes it would be quick and decisive victory for Russia, and that would test the West, and help decide China's actions towards Taiwan.
Actually that’s pretty believable! If China had called for their nationals to leave Ukraine prior to the invasion, that would’ve given away too much evidence of their plans.
It sounded a bit strange to me as well, but then again I have heard claims that most ruzzians, even military leaders, were not told about the attack either. putler is so paranoid that it's hard to tell how tightly he keeps things to himself (and apparently the US).
@@benbaselet2026 : You seem to forget that USA kept saying Russia is going to Attack Ukraine during November 2021,thru Feb 2022. SSelenky told the US to lower the rhetoric. So, how did you miss it?
@@elliekwong3180 I didn't. I clearly wrote that putin kept the secret to himself "(and apparently the US)" to point out exactly this, the US intelligence seemed to know more about moscow planning than a lot of the lower-ranking russians did.
@Ark Dude: I am sure China knew the special operation was imminent. After all, Biden was talking about it since November 2021. It was like daring Putin to Attack Ukraine. Yes, USA bears most of the responsibility in this conflict. Joe Blog should interview Scott Ritter, Colonel Macgregor, New Atlas, Duran , Alexander Mercouri, Patrick Lancaster, etc. That should give you the really story behind the conflict.
Russia was asking peace before even the conflict began. Ukraine dismissed. Now dombass is declared as russia and will join russia federation. Still no peace talks needed? Half of ukranie will end up mined. Lets see then if ukranie wants to surrender and state that they are neutral, or putin will have to take it all..
Russia will not a square centimeter of Ukraine. Not one, but the paria of the kremlin, Vlad the useless will be going into the history books as the man who destroyed russia
Mr Stubbs’s presentation is always balanced, precisely clear and straight to the points. Regarding how to win soul and heart of Global South, West need more economical rather than political programs to improve their economy and social wellbeing.
The problem is that Western financial capitalism is inherently extractive. Look at how its devouring the people in its own country (cost of living) and multiply that by 100 for the Global South.
@@tyn6211 Great point. And that inherently extractive nature of Western capitalism is, of course, the fundamental reason why many non-Western powers (large and small) are wary of the West or even outright against it.
@@tyn6211agreed, but is “Eastern” crony state capitalism any better? Hm? At least the Western version is amenable towards gradual changes in the systems like the social welfare and legal protections of workers in the 20th century.
@@Ufthak They're both crony capitalism. But the real distinction between financial and industrial forms of capitalism is how profit is generated. The financial capitalist doesn't care if they increase output, as long as margins increase; think of the sorry housing situation in the West, where more housing would devalue existing homes. On the other hand, the industrialist wants to increase output, even if it means decreasing margins; think Tesla.
Not condemning Russia is perhaps not a good indicator of how the "global South" views Russia or China in terms of ideological alignment. It's, for most of the Global South, a transactional issue at best. It's a neutral vote. The Global South has no illusions about China. None of the top 15 countries comprising that group managed the kind of growth that China produced, over the last 30 years. Of that group, only Brazil, S. Arabia, and Malaysia have succeeded in developing a trade surplus with China; the rest are in deficit with China. Most are suffering the same kind of negative de-industrialization resulting from Chinese exports. Four of those top 15 are in serious S. China Sea conflict with China (Indonesia, Phillipines, Malaysia, and Vietnam). If the developed West wants to have this Global South aligned with it more closely, there's a simple prescription: switch industries out of China and favour those countries as destinations. The developed West has a trade deficit of about US$500 billion with China -- every year. Work to put the factories in India, Brazil, Indonesia, Argentina, Nigeria, Egypt, Phillipines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc. It's a big task, but not beyond reach.
Global south had a big role during the cold war era determining wether capitalism or communism would dominate the globe. Hopefuly the politicians in the west do recognize the importance of this part of the world.
Mr Stubbs is insightful as usual. However, the economic block of Canada, Mexico, and the US, which includes the UK, Japan, and Australia, will displace an already diminishing China as the economic and military mega power of the 21 century. As such, this decade is Russia and China's last chance to plunge the world into their distopian version of global governance underpinned by current authoritarian practices, including both forced and slave labour. As for the global south, now is there time to decide which master they'll serve - it may prove a Faustian bargain either way, but the West would do well to sweeten the path to extend its soft power.
Yes. My own view is that Xi has played what was a strong hand for China very badly. He (and now Putin) has alarmed and consolidated the "West" and important players of the Global South. Had China continued to do business as usual for another decade they would have been virtually unstoppable. I believe now the board favors West.
Amen brother. My country (USA) has to do a better job of including it's allies in a shared vision (and reality) of prosperity, peace, etc. In other words, we need real partners in this new era, not subjects.
Of course the US wanted Russia to attack, that's what they've been working on since 2008 after all. Remember, the US ultimate goal is to stop Russia in its tracks on its way to progress and development. And to make sure Russia would attack, they had Ukraine step up the bombing on the Donbas region just before the Russians attacked. It is what the US have been waiting for.
1. Stating the obvious (China and Russia on same team). 2. Nothing. 3. Meaningless words (peace deal, but no attempt to reach out to other side or, for that matter, anyone). 4. More nothing. 5. More words topped with more nothing. Literally nothing happened that wasn't already happening or that we didn't know weeks (or months) before the meeting.
I’ve read in other assessments that this was also an example Xi’s efforts to influence the financial markets by Putin agreeing to pay for Chinese imports in the yuan with Xi hoping this will begin the fight for a dual world monetary currency.
@Margaret Saleeby: No need to over think. China wants the world to use a basket of currencies for trading. So, what's wrong with USD? Let's say, USA weaponizes USD. In other words, USA sanctions one too many countries. USA uses this privilege to export their inflation to world. In other words, the world is supporting Americans ' good life. USA also uses the privilege to steal from other countries, sanctions and confiscation of their money and gold. For these reasons, the world wants to de-dollarize. No country should have this kind of power over other nation. No country should have the privilege of printing money at will.
@@elliekwong3180all countries with sufficient internal market have the privilege of “printing money at will”. Look at the chart of China’s M0, M1 and M2 as an example - if anything, they champion the art of printing money. Who did US “steal” money and gold from? Are you alluding to sanctions on Russian reserves held in the West? If yes then know that they are frozen as of now, presumably for the duration of the war. Even though I personally think it is reasonable to confiscate the whole amount and pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. I don’t think taking money from gangsters constitutes “stealing” anymore than putting criminals in prison constitutes “infringing on their freedom”.
@wayne baliet: I believe you are talking about USA. USA invaded Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan based on lies,lies and lies created by US government. Americans turned these countries into wasteland, slaughtered their people and looted their countries. Americans are still in Iraq and Syria stealing oil like thieves. Americans hijacked Iranian oil tankers at high seas like pirates. US government sponsored drug trafficking in Afghanistan like drug cartel. USA is practically the only country that would murder the head of state, strip search the head of state and detain the head of state. How freaking arrogant! USA is the only country that dropped 3, not 2 nuclear bombs on civilians. USA is the creator of all terrorists in the world. USA trained, armed and funded Taliban, ISIS, ISIL, ISIS-K, PKK, ETIM, Al Qaeda, Uighur extremists,etc It begs the question who was responsible for 911. . . Inside job. . .ask Bush! You cannot get more evil than that. Americans should look in the mirror and reach into their conscience.
Why would you say it is not a proxy war? The russians have said it, Ukraine have said it, the germans and EU have said it, american officials have said it, EVERYBODY have said it.
I was in Tianjin recently and talked to a Chinese manager at an American company. He kept spouting pro-Russian propaganda and saying that the US gov't was evil and war-loving, that Ukrainians and Russians are the same people, that China is so far ahead in creating Middle East peace, etc. The common "Russia felt threatened by NATO" theme was there throughout. My retort "So, are Putin's feelings of insecurity more important than Ukraine's sovereignty?" If the answer is "yes" then ask "why?" Logically, if you think feelings of insecurity are more important than sovereignty then: 1) it is understandable that the other countries around the South China Sea ask for more American protection against this country that feels that their insecurity is justification for violating sovereignty, 2) the "One China" policy that is recognized by most of the world and held dear by Beijing is also another border that could be changed. It's a stance that, when taken to its logical limits, bites China right back.
@@masterchinese28 yes and I believe the guy in tianjin told you why and probably that is 1 of the many reasons why the global South are neutral and wanted to stay out of the war. Covid, economic problems, US printing money causing global inflation etc we already have a plateful and there is no need to add to the list of problems by sanctioning Russia or getting involved in the war one way or another. We are trying to survive and weather the storm out 😊. One more thing, I don't think you understand the real Chinese mindset, even though you could be ethnic Chinese 😊. I strongly suggest that you should live in China and mixed with the locals in order to understand the absurdity of your logic especially the last one(point 2) to a Chinese mind 😊.
@@gwo-shyanhan1188 Haha. I have explained the point 2 to many, but it does not usually register (as you expected). It's like trying to explain to my Christian parents that they have LESS money when they give 10% to the church or to my Filipina wife that there are reasons why the rest of the world thinks that the Marcoses are corrupt. I am in fact an expat who has been in Asia for 23 years, including on the mainland since 2003. Mindsets are part of the cultural landscape. Interestingly, I do actually do find my conversations with Chinese to be more open than many of my Western friends and family. My expectations, however, are low that I'll actually change any minds.
I am now in a country which is part of the global south. I am visiting after 15 years away. In the past folks here have been very supportive of Western democracy and values. I am getting a sense from young people the West does not fully appreciate the need for development and a better life. I don't think things have progressed to open hostility but I worry things are moving in that direction. I do agree we need to face up to this and address it with outreach and development assistance. One additional point is the inflation in the South. Food prices, for example, have become very problematic. We have to be seen to be dealing with this issue. Especially in the face of rising global interest rates.
Alex, I am almost at a loss for dealing with what we believe the value is of the global south what do we really want from these people is a question that needs to be answered if China and Russia are offering a better deal than the west and if we cannot approach these nations with respect and dignity Then perhaps we don’t need them or if they choose to follow in the line of China and Russia let them the pie taste no better if it’s made of bad quality products and they’ll find that out
Part of Eastern Europe (e.g. Czechoslovakia) was highly disappointed by the West around WW2 which is why they joined USSR block lets say semi-voluntarily. The consequences for Europe were huge and are still here so it would be better to think twice before leaving the global South to go to Russia & China.
Does this put Japan & South Korea in the global west? As Xi Jinping visited Putin, Fumio Kishida was visiting Zelenskyy. If we adjust the international date line slightly, they could be in the far west. Interesting point about winning the global south; I've considered this for climate change, but not for democracy & Ukraine.
Thanks Alexander for the clear statement that one thing we can take from Xi's visit is that there was some political gain by Putin with Chi's visit. Good to underline this.
@kidten holm: Russia and China are a good fit. Russia has the military power and China has the economic power. Together they will push USA back to North America where they belong, not in Russia/China 's backyard and front porch. Whatever will happen to USA is all self-inflicted.
Fine, but global south is already shared between US (Canada, UK in some extent) and China. There is no place fro Eu there except if it doesn't mean huge cash flow towards South.
one thing that unites all of us is that humans are irredeemable everywhere as a side note: very cool villainy look you have got, professor, apart from usual brilliant analysis
A general question: How do you see Peter Zeihan's data/predictions about the Chinese economy/people/country even about to collapse imminently, based on demographic data and China being a net importer of both food and energy in a world order, where USA is withdrawing its protection of naval trade, thereby causing the deconstruction of globalism?
Zeihan is too much of a generalist and sensationalist to be taken seriously on the “massive imminent collapse” of China. These things take decades and so far the Chinese are doing well on maintaining their global share of trade. The only thing that could upset this is any abrupt military action which I think can’t be fully excluded, but again it’s just a possibility, not inevitability
Your conclusion is spot on. Both east and west are in demographic decline, a shift is coming. I am interested, given the colonial and post Cold War history: 1) Who do you see as potential allies between the west and south? 2) Has the belt and road initiative shrunk the pool of potential candidates?
The truth is that the south is too weak both militarily and economically to warrant much attention or thought from the west. China cater to the neglected to win favors on the world stage as it can’t really choose their friends as all their neighbors fear or dislike them.
India is well poised to be a natural ally of the U.S. in the least and the West in general. Most of the skills, strengths and competencies of the two are complimentary rather than fostering competition with each other. However as of now they are clearly not ready to drop both the post-colonial grudges towards the West as well as post-Soviet affinity towards Russian Federation. Other than Indians, I definitely see ASEAN as willing to cooperate with the US, if only to play that card against the Chinese influence.
@@Ufthak India doesn't have grudges against the west, never had even right after it's independence. During Cold war India maintained neutrality. problem occurred when USA started providing weapons and military support to Pakistan (with the thinking of using Pakistan to contain USSR in Afghanistan) but Pakistan directed that military aid against India and terrorism.
China and Russia formed an alliance because USA threat. In the past, they were not close. . . they were just neighbors. They are actually a good fit. They are equal partners. The West projects this partnership as big brother and little brother. China also needs Russia alliance. They both bring their strong points to this partnership.
The key selling point of functional democracy is that, because The People have genuine oversight over their governments (facilitated by free media and an independent judiciary), it most reliably brings what people actually want, which is peace and prosperity. Neither Russia nor China would have the economies that they do today were they not rooted in the economies of western democracy. The people don’t want to send their loved ones to war and will willingly only if attacked or to avert a larger conflict. The People only want trustworthy partners in cultural, economic, and scientific exchange. And so they get it, as the existence of the EU demonstrates. Of course, they also want effective military protection. Because they have oversight over their governments, they get it. We of the Free World have the best weapons not because we are war mongers but because The People want their loved ones to have the very best equipment we can give them if we are forced to send them into battle. We want peace and trade among respected friends. Putin and Russia want subservient empire.
the us is in north america, russia is between europe and asia, and china is in asia. none of them are in the "global south." where is the power center for the global south? or south america for that matter. what do we want from the global south? its not really spoken about, is it the concern of being shut out of their markets? how involved is the west in those markets?
Another brilliant analysis, I really appreciate it. In addition, I will digress through five subjective, Eurocentric and utilitarian rhetorical questions of mine. First, why the EU has not made a tiniest move towards its own internal and global repositioning since February 2022? Second, why the EU has perserverd in its role of the junior partner within the Global West (just like Russia vis-à-vis China)? Third, why the Nobel Peace Prize laureate (hereandafter the EU) has no plans in defining its own sphere of interest in promoting peace on their own borders, thus permanently removing any possibility that the countries geographically closest to Russia will ever suffer in any war? Fourth, will the EU finally resolve the issue of its own Local South (after 33+ years) before turning to the Global South (despite being out of alignment with its own EU-self and its own EU values)? I don't want to criticize the EU. On the contrary, I want to see the EU as the Global Leader of the 21st century (or at least as a "good cop" within the Global West if other options are disabled, but never as a Senior Partner) having removed any war threat within and on the borders of the European continent forever. In this connection, my final rhetorical question follows: should the last idea become officially inaugurated as one of the major (political, strategic, economic, cultural, civilizational etc.) goals of the 21-century EU (and the 21-century Globe), and if yes, how to achieve it?
Because Europe is weak, we are the junior partner to USA and Japan. We prosper because we don’t have to think about our security, the Americans did it for us.
Very accurate assessment that the Global South is the key in this matter, and the moralizing foreign policy the EU has been pursuing for years is more of an obstacle than actual help solving the crisis.
Global South is an utterly useless label, given that there appears to be no discernible shared characteristic between the countries within that label. It is about as useful as calling these countries “third world”. However it’s obvious that the label is now being exploited by China and Russia to create a wedge between the West and that grab bag of wildly different countries.
Yes you are right, it's time to act not sit around the global table with pink glasses on. We need to surround us with global south, now it´s the time. Not tomorrow. Thanks for a great analysis. I agree totally with it. 😊
Unfortunately, it's too late for USA to engage with the global south. USA has too many skeletons and blood left behind in these countries. It has gotten to the point that the global south will cheer on the collapse of USA.
Alex, as always thank you. I have a question that does not come from a place of arrogance but common sense. Can't we expect the Global South to accurately understand what Russia and China represent? Why tilt toward them or away from the West when it's painfully obvious Russia can't do anything for you and China offers money but autocracy with long purse strings? Some participants in the Chinese program to create infrastructure bitterly resent accepting the aid . Most would recoil at the political philosophy of China that tightly controls social and personal , if not economic freedom. Sure, that appears to another autocratic but not their citizens.
@1:54 Point #1: Xi wanted to frame this as peacemaking mediating trip, building on their prior 12-point peace plan and their successful Iran-Saudi Arabia mediation, to position China as a leader in global diplomacy. @5:20 Point #2: Putin shows the West and world he’s not completely isolated. @7:50 Point #3: Shaping a global narrative, trying to claim the high ground while justifying both Russia’s Ukraine invasion and China’s future Taiwan invasion. @11:02 Point #4: Tension between global West (EU, US, & allies = 25% of world’s countries) and global East (China + Russia). Ukraine is battlefield for new world order (US-led rules based vs China-led alternative). @15:05 Point #5: The global South will be decisive in the competition between global East and West over the new world order.
@rosie: Crimea was/is part of Ukraine. When USSR dissolved, people in Crimea voted to stay with Russia before Ukraine was even a country. Many months later, people in Ukraine voted to become independent, but they wanted Crimea. Both sides had since disputed over it. With support of USA, Ukraine sent military soldiers to Crimea to crush the protesters who didn't want to be Ukrainians. Ukrainian soldiers rounded up a bunch of Russian minority into a warehouse and set place on fire. About 40 people burned to death. Russia intervened because Russia signed an agreement with Crimea in 1991 for security protection before Ukraine was even a country!! Russia didn't invade Crimea as the freaking liar Obama said.
@@RosieBaseball : That was his lesser sin. Do you know Obama funnelled $billions into Ukraine to overthrow a duly elected president. He put a puppet as a president. Biden, the VP of USA acted as the de facto president of Ukraine. Victoria Nuland acted as Biden 's de facto VP in Ukraine. Is that treason. USA since recruited and expanded neo-Nazi groups. They eventually incorporated neo-Nazi groups into Ukraine military called National Guard like Gestapo! These freaking neo-Nazi have been killing minority groups in Donbass because they rejected regime change instigated by your freaking president, Obama. What a shame that Victoria Nuland, a Ukrainian J*w would collaborate with the Nazi in killing the minority groups. That's all under the order of Obama!! Obama said " when I looked Putin in the eyes I saw evil " Unbeknown to some of us, it was the devil himself talking. Oh, did I tell you freaking Obama invaded Syria because Syria refused to allow US company to build a pipeline through Syria. Obama made up this story about Assad used chemical weapons on the Kurds. That was proven to be a big fat lie. USA destroyed the entire Allepo, home to over 100,000 people. All US presidents are serial killers. Shame on Americans for their complicity of crimes against humanity.
Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Singapore are all usually considered western countries, because they have western institutions. Russia, for example, is a mostly European country, but not a western country.
Greetings from Africa (just visiting, though) where I'd like to play a little of the antagonist to the argument about the importance of the "Global South". I think you put your finger on a weakness for China in Russia: Putin is fighting a losing battle against the West and he'll not be around forever. Even more likely is that Russia will shrink and become more of a liability in Xi's efforts. Another neighbour is a difficulty for China: India and China don't agree on much and while Modi is looking more and more autocratic every day, he's in no position to proclaim that India's territorial disputes no longer matter. Beyond that, and this coming from someone who was in Venezuela before Chavez, lots of countries in Africa and South America are going to struggle to get their house in order. I think we can all get behind the idea that the world would be a better place if Africa and So America prospered, but it's not so easy as just investing in those regions when they undermine their own success so readily. It's nothing new that Latin America has stayed out of global conflicts, but doing so hasn't really done much for them either. The problems that dog them still persist.
In the same speech, twice they applauded him.. obviously you saw only the bits and pieces that the collective west wants to push as narrative, right? Please search and find (if you can find) the whole speech.
Excellent Analysis In 20 minutes! The Global West has an advantage over the Global East in developing sustainable economic ties with the Global South because of language. The question is "how does the Global West develop political trust with the Global South to develop mutual economic prosperity?" It must start at the grass roots level!
I thik that Henry Cunha hereunder, made a very good point. He said: If the developed West wants to have this Global South aligned with it more closely, there's a simple prescription: switch industries out of China and favour those countries as destinations. The developed West has a trade deficit of about US$500 billion with China -- every year. Work to put the factories in India, Brazil, Indonesia, Argentina, Nigeria, Egypt, Phillipines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc. It's a big task, but not beyond reach.
Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are already benefitting from a pullout from China. Indonesia especially has had most keiretsu linked businesses setup and manufacture in Bekasi. The Philippines is an extraordinary opportunity for manufacturing - high population that is well educated and hard working - they should have a great future. I think India wants to do its own nationalistic thing - which it genuinely has the capacity to do. Nigeria and Egypt are basket cases for large foreign investment. South America has always been and is likely to continue to be somewhat neutral until most of the cards are on the table exposed - I can't see them aligning with Russia and China if push comes to shove.
@jm buha: Your plan seems to be naivete. These companies went to China for profits, taking advantage of cheaper labor and the Chinese market. China has a supply chain ecosystem that cannot be or has not been duplicate d elsewhere. Ford sold more cars in China than in USA. iPhone sold more phones in China than in USA. Hollywood sold more tickets in China than in USA. Why would they want to go back to USA and lose their big market. Remember, companies are only loyal to shareholders, not their country. That's capitalism!!!
I couldn't agree more, but with one exception: the "global south" where I live (in LA). First, I don't see the GS as some kind of entity, as the geopoliticians are implying. They are not a true block of countries even if here and there you may be deluded by some shy attempts of them trying to act like adults in the room. These countries behave rather like hungry and abandoned dogs scattered around the world, just chasing the next crumbs that will fall from the table of the rich. With a few exceptions, no ideology or values drive them, just hunger and opportunity. With that in mind, I think you could better shape your very well-placed ideas around the "GS". Rgds.
Many economists proclaim that both Russia and China are heavily reliant on Western expertise and technology. And access has been closed. And such expertise is not available from the 'Global South.' ... A rebuttal would be greatly appreciated, an open mind is a free mind.
The US is not a war monster. It is a superpower that is projecting its power in Ukraine in the defense of European values and maintains its global dominance....
He did not say that - We all know the US is not a war monster. But if you look at it from Xi and Putin's eyes and minds, the US and The West is the one allied power that is keeping Xi and Putin from achieving their geopolitical ambitions. In the case of Xi, his ambition is to dominate his part of the world, the South East Asian sea and keep these countries under his influence and in Putin's case, his ambition is to keep all surrounding countries especailly those that have not yet joined the EU/NATO, afraid of Russia and whenever possible, under his direct influnce.
👉🏻👉🏼👉🏽 America calls it "Liberation" instead of "Invasion". That was what US call it in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia and the list goes on... Why the double standard? Confused... Please enlighten. Genuine question... Instances of the United States "liberated" or overthrowing, or attempting to overthrow, a foreign government since the Second World War. (* indicates successful ouster of a government) China 1949 to early 1960s Albania 1949-53 East Germany 1950s Iran 1953 * Guatemala 1954 * Costa Rica mid-1950s Syria 1956-7 Egypt 1957 Indonesia 1957-8 British Guiana 1953-64 * Iraq 1963 * North Vietnam 1945-73 Cambodia 1955-70 * Laos 1958 *, 1959 *, 1960 * Ecuador 1960-63 * Congo 1960 * France 1965 Brazil 1962-64 * Dominican Republic 1963 * Cuba 1959 to present Bolivia 1964 * Indonesia 1965 * Ghana 1966 * Chile 1964-73 * Greece 1967 * Costa Rica 1970-71 Bolivia 1971 * Australia 1973-75 * Angola 1975, 1980s Zaire 1975 Portugal 1974-76 * Jamaica 1976-80 * Seychelles 1979-81 Chad 1981-82 * Grenada 1983 * South Yemen 1982-84 Suriname 1982-84 Fiji 1987 * Libya 1980s Nicaragua 1981-90 * Panama 1989 * Bulgaria 1990 * Albania 1991 * Iraq 1991 Afghanistan 1980s * Somalia 1993 Yugoslavia 1999-2000 * Ecuador 2000 * Afghanistan 2001 * Venezuela 2002 * Iraq 2003 * Haiti 2004 * Somalia 2007 to present Honduras 2009 * Libya 2011 * Syria 2012 Ukraine 2014 * 2014 - 2022 - 6 countries yet to verify. Pakistan 2022 * Haiti 2022 *
All things considered, Xi and Lukashenko could also be indicted as a war criminals by the ICC, if they supply Russia with weapons and assistance in an illegal invasion. A precedent has been set. Assistive defence of Ukraine is perfectly legal by international laws, however the invasion is absolutely illegal.
Lukashenko already supplied weapons and assistance to Russia, as Belarus and Russia have a formal military alliance. And China, of course, has sold to Russia many things that are useful militarily, such as drones. So, get that kangaroo court going already?
@Joe Blogs: Why does not ICC issue a warrant for Bush, Obama and Biden for crimes against humanity. All US presidents are serial killers. Of course, ICC wouldn't dare to issue a warrant for any US president. USA will bomb the hell out of them. ICC is not a neutral organization. Russia, China, India and USA are not a member, nor do they recognize ICC.
The global south is dependant on exports to the west. China's idea of' 'partnering" with African and Asian developing states has failed; i.e. Belt & Road investments. The global south are becoming more wary of China - as its so-called 'investments' tends to lead to debit traps; i.e. Sri Lanka, etc. Russia and China are no match economically with the EU & US economies. In fact China is in a very dangerous position, because if it's seen as supporting Russia too closely, the western allies could take steps to cut China off trade. The last thing China needs right now is another economic catstrophy - the reason it seeks to foster a peace agreement.
You forgot to mention that For Zelenski it not "war" vs "peace", it is "war now with exhausted russia" vs "a little peace, then a war with prepared and rebuilt russia"
They should do a song "who is the western Baghdad Booob, , jens, biden boris and soooo oooon , tralalalala ballon and so on" Yes, Russia have to learn the west to respect the rest of the world..we in the west are making folles uf ourselves in the world. We in sweden and finland was forced into nato, didn't even vote. All bad things we says about the east mirrors us in the west.. This is Baghdad Bob style
Mr, Stubbs, I think you overestimate the important of the 'global south'. The only (important) southern countries that need some convincing are the democratic ones, for which there is not much needed if the the new world order is balancing to the wrong side. The others are mostly failed states for which convincing will be next to impossible, and are not that important on the global stage anyway. The west could better find a way to prevent China for more or less taking over Russia, in which case a lot of dependencies from other countries will be gone for them and become a REAL superpower.
China represents a peace-seeking international community. Amid all the conflicts around the globe, and all the Chinese diplomatic efforts to settle these conflicts peacefully. China proved to the world how they are “credible, lovable and respectable”.
Alex, I absolutely love this series and am so excited when a new segment shows up! About China as Peacemaker. How can one be taken seriously as a mediator and peacemaker when one has a 'relationship without limits' with one of the parties and has yet to even have a phone conversation with the other? If China wanted to be taken seriously, he would have also visited Ukraine for a few hours at least. My second point is actually a question. The relationship is now pretty much Lord and Vassal. Putin needs China way more than China needs Russia on the grand scale of things. I watched the arrival of Xi and cringed. To me, Putin totally insulted Xi by not meeting his plane personally or at least by not sending the Prime Minister or the 2nd in importance in Russia-whoever that might be be but Putin sent the Deputy Prime Minister of Tourism!!! Tourism?? Really?Then I heard Xi had been scheduled for a couple of meetings but left early. I'm just wondering if things are really 'limitless'. What is Putin's real game with China or can Putin just not play second fiddle.
@sunny, your question abt how can a country who has unlimited good relationship with Russia like China be a mediator? China also has very good relationship with Ukraine and maybe that is why 😂. Having a good relationship with someone doesn't mean that you have to hate another. No wonder the west could not do it, you are so myopic 😂
@@gwo-shyanhan1188 I would like your comment on my big question. WAS it an insult to Xi to have the lowly Minister of Tourism meet his plane or should it have been Putin himself or at least his second in command? Thanks for your response.
Unquestnable support for Ukraine 👍 Alternatives for Ruzzia: 1. Western minded leadership, now once failed... 2. China minded leader... are we ready to face China next to our border? 3. Collapse of Ruzzian intdrnal kolonialism, why not?
I do not believe China is big brother to Russian, When China want build train in Kazastan, Russian do not agree the project. China need 10 year till Russian agree. The project can go. So who is big brother???
Prof, the term you repeatedly mentioned Global west Global east Global South aren't these terms a misnomer ? - read 'divisive' simple term 'multi polar world' is far more accurate to reflect what's contemporary understanding of the world order now I'm glad you, in your final words, have admitted the dominance of the West is indeed over - the world had been sick of endless wars engineered by the West. for decades. the reality of the situation is one of 'doing good' - one of making the best and most appealing offers to spread influences
The flaw in your thinking is the view that Asia will somehow under Chinese influence become less pluralistic. Can you cite a single example out side of Chinaa and North Korea? I can't
Are you sure? Look your video 4 months ago The title was (alex answer your questions about the war in ukraine) in that video 5:57 you told us if ukraine doesn't get back it's land ukraine is lost now you charge your idea about who will winn (russia is aready lost 😂😂😂😂) how ?
Mr. Stubb: There are many factions in western countries who want a return of colonial empires. If the Global South isn't serious about human rights and moral foreign policies, then I think we'll see a generation of westerners who no longer believe in universal western values and universal human rights. Western peoples, as we've seen with the right-wing in the US and others in Europe, are more than happy to abandon traditional western ideology (rule of law, human rights, free markets, etc) if that ideology is perceived as holding them back in a world of people who don't care for the same universal values. The Global South needs to realize that the kind of world order that they have right now is far better than it could be (it could be even worse than it has been historically, with all the new technologies available to the great powers of the world). I don't see how abandoning universal ethics systems will in any way benefit the Global South. The Global South must support Ukraine in its struggle for its sovereignty, or they'll likely face the same future from other aggressors, some of which may even be Western nations themselves.
I don't know - did I live on another planet when colonisation and slave trades happened and made the West rich? And now you want to tell these people to better shut up and listen to what master tells them? That is just so bizarre.
I also think the so-called West needs to do a better job with Global South, but kinda a different approach. I don't think of top-down approach is the way to go. Basically the U.S. in specific The West in general need to sort out Immigration reform. it seems typically the Anglo-Saxons don't often like the Browning of their societies and all that that implies. essentially you're investing in people where you won't necessarily be getting a return in that investment. And it takes generations to bear fruit if it bears fruit at all. I would like to see the US/Canda kind a take the lead as societies are less homogeneous and class-based. But the main would be to tie The west together with some uniform model where the West isn't completing against itself. biggest obstacles would be societal and brain drain. With the US has economic and cultural might we could wield soft power a lot better. And I think it starts with comprehensive immigration reform not just in the US but in the West. I don't think Western sensitivities allow a top-down approach with African authoritarian governments.
I think it was more of a transactional visit than we all realise. He needed to secure the new pipeline routes and access to the forthcoming cheap resources. After all, China is a global business and now has access to unsold oil & gas. Putin has diminished power in this relationship because of his failed invasion.
For the past 10 years, Xi has already met Putin for 40 times! If anyone read about Chinese propaganda about Putin, the image of Putin is so herotic and he saved Russia from the western coerosions 😂
The meeting of Xi and Putin was not mainly about war in Ukraine, that was secondary. It was about the joint cooperation of two huge countries in economic development and to strengthen their relationship facing the isolation of the western countries. It provides huge opportunities for both Russia and China. It will change the geopolitical formation of the world. This created a huge non ally relationship in the world. The peace proposal from China is just a good intention to the western and provided a reasonable ladder for all parties involved to step down. But it will not force any one to accept any suggestions. 80% of the population are Russians in the East Ukraine. Ukraine Can't change this fact. Russia has no interest of the rest parts of the Ukraine. European wants to use the peace proposal or not, is really up to themselves. China has no invasion plans for Taiwan right now. Taiwan is not a boat that could cruise away from China sea (if it is, please go to west coast of the US, to see what the US will treat Taiwan), what is in hurry? China will solve the reunification one way or another in the future. After all, it was all about the economy, stupid!
Russia has surely no interest in other parts of Ukraine than the east which is why their main target was Kiev, am I right? 😄 As an Eastern European I would like to inform you that Russia is lying 24/7, if there is any truth in what they are saying, it is there by coincidence not by intention and they will take as much as they will be allowed to. If they are allowed to take Eastern Germany again, they will go for it, regardless where any Russians are living or not...
Interesting. I do think the west needs to consider the global south, but not so much as a strategic political move, as in it is the right thing to do. You can't exclude the majority of the worlds population in planning a sustainable way forward.
I found myself wondering where to even begin in making overtures in the South. China and Russia are going for what will eventually be revealed as domination of those countries. They don't know how to play any other hand. Once that becomes clear, the South will quickly recognize it for exactly what it is - a lower key version of colonialism. The danger, to my mind, is that many of those governments are in fact temperamentally more aligned with authoritarianism even if their populations are not. Authoritarian or despotic rule seems a lot easier to the politicians there than consensus and inclusion. It's just a matter of applying sufficient coercion to keep it going. China and Russia are fantastic role models for that.
I usually agree with most of analysis by Mr. Stubb, but in this case i cannot agree with his assertion that Putin did not inform Xi about plans of starting his "SMO". I am fairly certain they agreed on this with hopes it would be quick and decisive victory for Russia, and that would test the West, and help decide China's actions towards Taiwan.
Actually that’s pretty believable!
If China had called for their nationals to leave Ukraine prior to the invasion, that would’ve given away too much evidence of their plans.
It sounded a bit strange to me as well, but then again I have heard claims that most ruzzians, even military leaders, were not told about the attack either. putler is so paranoid that it's hard to tell how tightly he keeps things to himself (and apparently the US).
@@benbaselet2026 : You seem to forget that USA kept saying Russia is going to Attack Ukraine during November 2021,thru Feb 2022. SSelenky told the US to lower the rhetoric. So, how did you miss it?
@@elliekwong3180 I didn't. I clearly wrote that putin kept the secret to himself "(and apparently the US)" to point out exactly this, the US intelligence seemed to know more about moscow planning than a lot of the lower-ranking russians did.
@Ark Dude: I am sure China knew the special operation was imminent. After all, Biden was talking about it since November 2021. It was like daring Putin to Attack Ukraine. Yes, USA bears most of the responsibility in this conflict. Joe Blog should interview Scott Ritter, Colonel Macgregor, New Atlas, Duran , Alexander Mercouri, Patrick Lancaster, etc. That should give you the really story behind the conflict.
It's not a peace compromise it's a demand for unconditional Ukrainian surrender. No deal. ✌️
Russia was asking peace before even the conflict began. Ukraine dismissed. Now dombass is declared as russia and will join russia federation. Still no peace talks needed? Half of ukranie will end up mined. Lets see then if ukranie wants to surrender and state that they are neutral, or putin will have to take it all..
@@MrClick4fun KNOB, how do you ask for peace and invade?
If you are Russian, enjoy the ISOLATION!
Russia will not a square centimeter of Ukraine. Not one, but the paria of the kremlin, Vlad the useless will be going into the history books as the man who destroyed russia
Exactly. China is neither an impartial nor effective candidate for a peace broker in this conflict.
@@MrClick4fun Slava Ukraïni
A 20 minute video, worth every second of the viewer's time.
Once again, Professor, you provide us with some exceptional food for thought. Thank you.
A great Lecture from the former minister Aleksander stub👏👏👍
Thanks Alex, your videos are fair and balanced. I always walk away from them feeling better informed and more intelligent 🙏🥰
Brilliant analysis. Thank you 🖖
Mr Stubbs’s presentation is always balanced, precisely clear and straight to the points. Regarding how to win soul and heart of Global South, West need more economical rather than political programs to improve their economy and social wellbeing.
The problem is that Western financial capitalism is inherently extractive. Look at how its devouring the people in its own country (cost of living) and multiply that by 100 for the Global South.
@@tyn6211 Great point. And that inherently extractive nature of Western capitalism is, of course, the fundamental reason why many non-Western powers (large and small) are wary of the West or even outright against it.
@@tyn6211agreed, but is “Eastern” crony state capitalism any better? Hm?
At least the Western version is amenable towards gradual changes in the systems like the social welfare and legal protections of workers in the 20th century.
@@Ufthak They're both crony capitalism. But the real distinction between financial and industrial forms of capitalism is how profit is generated. The financial capitalist doesn't care if they increase output, as long as margins increase; think of the sorry housing situation in the West, where more housing would devalue existing homes. On the other hand, the industrialist wants to increase output, even if it means decreasing margins; think Tesla.
can't get enough of these, Thankyou.
Not condemning Russia is perhaps not a good indicator of how the "global South" views Russia or China in terms of ideological alignment. It's, for most of the Global South, a transactional issue at best. It's a neutral vote.
The Global South has no illusions about China. None of the top 15 countries comprising that group managed the kind of growth that China produced, over the last 30 years. Of that group, only Brazil, S. Arabia, and Malaysia have succeeded in developing a trade surplus with China; the rest are in deficit with China. Most are suffering the same kind of negative de-industrialization resulting from Chinese exports. Four of those top 15 are in serious S. China Sea conflict with China (Indonesia, Phillipines, Malaysia, and Vietnam).
If the developed West wants to have this Global South aligned with it more closely, there's a simple prescription: switch industries out of China and favour those countries as destinations. The developed West has a trade deficit of about US$500 billion with China -- every year.
Work to put the factories in India, Brazil, Indonesia, Argentina, Nigeria, Egypt, Phillipines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc.
It's a big task, but not beyond reach.
- 18:56 - 19:07- 19:29 💯💯💯thanks for spending the time to create and share this perspective/awareness/etc
Global south had a big role during the cold war era determining wether capitalism or communism would dominate the globe. Hopefuly the politicians in the west do recognize the importance of this part of the world.
Mr Stubbs is insightful as usual. However, the economic block of Canada, Mexico, and the US, which includes the UK, Japan, and Australia, will displace an already diminishing China as the economic and military mega power of the 21 century. As such, this decade is Russia and China's last chance to plunge the world into their distopian version of global governance underpinned by current authoritarian practices, including both forced and slave labour. As for the global south, now is there time to decide which master they'll serve - it may prove a Faustian bargain either way, but the West would do well to sweeten the path to extend its soft power.
Yes. My own view is that Xi has played what was a strong hand for China very badly. He (and now Putin) has alarmed and consolidated the "West" and important players of the Global South. Had China continued to do business as usual for another decade they would have been virtually unstoppable. I believe now the board favors West.
Agreed
Mexico that your drug induced political class is advocating for military action against really.
You are definitely on the money there !!! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻.
Amen brother. My country (USA) has to do a better job of including it's allies in a shared vision (and reality) of prosperity, peace, etc. In other words, we need real partners in this new era, not subjects.
China knew Russia MIGHT invade Ukraine but did not know when and did not want Russia to invade.
Of course the US wanted Russia to attack, that's what they've been working on since 2008 after all. Remember, the US ultimate goal is to stop Russia in its tracks on its way to progress and development. And to make sure Russia would attack, they had Ukraine step up the bombing on the Donbas region just before the Russians attacked. It is what the US have been waiting for.
1. Stating the obvious (China and Russia on same team). 2. Nothing. 3. Meaningless words (peace deal, but no attempt to reach out to other side or, for that matter, anyone). 4. More nothing. 5. More words topped with more nothing. Literally nothing happened that wasn't already happening or that we didn't know weeks (or months) before the meeting.
He’s the only guy talking about the bigger picture and what’s at stake.
You should follow Peter Zeihan. The picture is even bigger than most believe.
You mean to say he’s the first one you found.
Very well put articulated and equally very interesting. Thank you.
I’ve read in other assessments that this was also an example Xi’s efforts to influence the financial markets by Putin agreeing to pay for Chinese imports in the yuan with Xi hoping this will begin the fight for a dual world monetary currency.
Yes it's all terribly evil.
Dnevnik Zagreb
@Margaret Saleeby: No need to over think. China wants the world to use a basket of currencies for trading. So, what's wrong with USD? Let's say, USA weaponizes USD. In other words, USA sanctions one too many countries. USA uses this privilege to export their inflation to world. In other words, the world is supporting Americans ' good life. USA also uses the privilege to steal from other countries, sanctions and confiscation of their money and gold. For these reasons, the world wants to de-dollarize. No country should have this kind of power over other nation. No country should have the privilege of printing money at will.
@@elliekwong3180all countries with sufficient internal market have the privilege of “printing money at will”. Look at the chart of China’s M0, M1 and M2 as an example - if anything, they champion the art of printing money.
Who did US “steal” money and gold from? Are you alluding to sanctions on Russian reserves held in the West? If yes then know that they are frozen as of now, presumably for the duration of the war. Even though I personally think it is reasonable to confiscate the whole amount and pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. I don’t think taking money from gangsters constitutes “stealing” anymore than putting criminals in prison constitutes “infringing on their freedom”.
@@JoeyBlogs007 how is it all terribly evil - don't we do the same given the opportunities?
Great analysis. W Stubb 🤘
Another fascinating discussion!
thanks for your lecture
"Axis of Evil" is the only description needed to talk about thier partnership.
Absolutely, anything else is optimistic copium.
Evil to who? Global western dictatorship?
So what the west been doing over so many years what you call it
@wayne baliet: I believe you are talking about USA. USA invaded Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan based on lies,lies and lies created by US government. Americans turned these countries into wasteland, slaughtered their people and looted their countries. Americans are still in Iraq and Syria stealing oil like thieves. Americans hijacked Iranian oil tankers at high seas like pirates. US government sponsored drug trafficking in Afghanistan like drug cartel. USA is practically the only country that would murder the head of state, strip search the head of state and detain the head of state. How freaking arrogant! USA is the only country that dropped 3, not 2 nuclear bombs on civilians. USA is the creator of all terrorists in the world. USA trained, armed and funded Taliban, ISIS, ISIL, ISIS-K, PKK, ETIM, Al Qaeda, Uighur extremists,etc It begs the question who was responsible for 911. . . Inside job. . .ask Bush! You cannot get more evil than that. Americans should look in the mirror and reach into their conscience.
Why would you say it is not a proxy war? The russians have said it, Ukraine have said it, the germans and EU have said it, american officials have said it, EVERYBODY have said it.
Excellent as ever
Thanks Alexander for clarity.
Brilliant! Thanks.
I was in Tianjin recently and talked to a Chinese manager at an American company. He kept spouting pro-Russian propaganda and saying that the US gov't was evil and war-loving, that Ukrainians and Russians are the same people, that China is so far ahead in creating Middle East peace, etc. The common "Russia felt threatened by NATO" theme was there throughout.
My retort "So, are Putin's feelings of insecurity more important than Ukraine's sovereignty?" If the answer is "yes" then ask "why?"
Logically, if you think feelings of insecurity are more important than sovereignty then: 1) it is understandable that the other countries around the South China Sea ask for more American protection against this country that feels that their insecurity is justification for violating sovereignty, 2) the "One China" policy that is recognized by most of the world and held dear by Beijing is also another border that could be changed. It's a stance that, when taken to its logical limits, bites China right back.
That’s brilliant!!!! 👏🏻✊🏻
I think the person you met at tianjin sums up how the global South feels about the US and the Russian Ukrainian war 😊.
@@gwo-shyanhan1188 Yes, there are a lot of people in the Global South who sympathize with the situation and for a variety of reasons.
@@masterchinese28 yes and I believe the guy in tianjin told you why and probably that is 1 of the many reasons why the global South are neutral and wanted to stay out of the war. Covid, economic problems, US printing money causing global inflation etc we already have a plateful and there is no need to add to the list of problems by sanctioning Russia or getting involved in the war one way or another. We are trying to survive and weather the storm out 😊. One more thing, I don't think you understand the real Chinese mindset, even though you could be ethnic Chinese 😊. I strongly suggest that you should live in China and mixed with the locals in order to understand the absurdity of your logic especially the last one(point 2) to a Chinese mind 😊.
@@gwo-shyanhan1188 Haha. I have explained the point 2 to many, but it does not usually register (as you expected). It's like trying to explain to my Christian parents that they have LESS money when they give 10% to the church or to my Filipina wife that there are reasons why the rest of the world thinks that the Marcoses are corrupt. I am in fact an expat who has been in Asia for 23 years, including on the mainland since 2003. Mindsets are part of the cultural landscape. Interestingly, I do actually do find my conversations with Chinese to be more open than many of my Western friends and family. My expectations, however, are low that I'll actually change any minds.
Worth watching / listening to ☝🏻
I am now in a country which is part of the global south. I am visiting after 15 years away. In the past folks here have been very supportive of Western democracy and values. I am getting a sense from young people the West does not fully appreciate the need for development and a better life. I don't think things have progressed to open hostility but I worry things are moving in that direction.
I do agree we need to face up to this and address it with outreach and development assistance.
One additional point is the inflation in the South. Food prices, for example, have become very problematic. We have to be seen to be dealing with this issue. Especially in the face of rising global interest rates.
Why they use a sample from a movie
Alex, I am almost at a loss for dealing with what we believe the value is of the global south what do we really want from these people is a question that needs to be answered if China and Russia are offering a better deal than the west and if we cannot approach these nations with respect and dignity Then perhaps we don’t need them or if they choose to follow in the line of China and Russia let them the pie taste no better if it’s made of bad quality products and they’ll find that out
Part of Eastern Europe (e.g. Czechoslovakia) was highly disappointed by the West around WW2 which is why they joined USSR block lets say semi-voluntarily. The consequences for Europe were huge and are still here so it would be better to think twice before leaving the global South to go to Russia & China.
Does this put Japan & South Korea in the global west? As Xi Jinping visited Putin, Fumio Kishida was visiting Zelenskyy. If we adjust the international date line slightly, they could be in the far west. Interesting point about winning the global south; I've considered this for climate change, but not for democracy & Ukraine.
Doesn't have to be either-or - I actually think it has to be both.
Thanks Alexander for the clear statement that one thing we can take from Xi's visit is that there was some political gain by Putin with Chi's visit. Good to underline this.
@kidten holm: Russia and China are a good fit. Russia has the military power and China has the economic power. Together they will push USA back to North America where they belong, not in Russia/China 's backyard and front porch. Whatever will happen to USA is all self-inflicted.
Right....just like the first time we hear Anakin call Palpatine his "Master"
Thanks for posting this. 🙂👍
You said it all, acedemic !
Great analysis!
Fine, but global south is already shared between US (Canada, UK in some extent) and China. There is no place fro Eu there except if it doesn't mean huge cash flow towards South.
one thing that unites all of us is that humans are irredeemable everywhere
as a side note: very cool villainy look you have got, professor, apart from usual brilliant analysis
Insightful as always
A general question: How do you see Peter Zeihan's data/predictions about the Chinese economy/people/country even about to collapse imminently, based on demographic data and China being a net importer of both food and energy in a world order, where USA is withdrawing its protection of naval trade, thereby causing the deconstruction of globalism?
Zeihan is too much of a generalist and sensationalist to be taken seriously on the “massive imminent collapse” of China. These things take decades and so far the Chinese are doing well on maintaining their global share of trade. The only thing that could upset this is any abrupt military action which I think can’t be fully excluded, but again it’s just a possibility, not inevitability
Your conclusion is spot on. Both east and west are in demographic decline, a shift is coming.
I am interested, given the colonial and post Cold War history:
1) Who do you see as potential allies between the west and south?
2) Has the belt and road initiative shrunk the pool of potential candidates?
The truth is that the south is too weak both militarily and economically to warrant much attention or thought from the west. China cater to the neglected to win favors on the world stage as it can’t really choose their friends as all their neighbors fear or dislike them.
India is well poised to be a natural ally of the U.S. in the least and the West in general. Most of the skills, strengths and competencies of the two are complimentary rather than fostering competition with each other.
However as of now they are clearly not ready to drop both the post-colonial grudges towards the West as well as post-Soviet affinity towards Russian Federation.
Other than Indians, I definitely see ASEAN as willing to cooperate with the US, if only to play that card against the Chinese influence.
@@Ufthak India doesn't have grudges against the west, never had even right after it's independence. During Cold war India maintained neutrality. problem occurred when USA started providing weapons and military support to Pakistan (with the thinking of using Pakistan to contain USSR in Afghanistan) but Pakistan directed that military aid against India and terrorism.
@@foreverquarantine6151 Socialist Nehru and Congress was aligned with the USSR.
it is easy to change wording, not so easy to change mind.
Time to eat the humble pie
What are the respective risks to China and Russia’s new found connection with each other?
China and Russia formed an alliance because USA threat. In the past, they were not close. . . they were just neighbors. They are actually a good fit. They are equal partners. The West projects this partnership as big brother and little brother. China also needs Russia alliance. They both bring their strong points to this partnership.
The key selling point of functional democracy is that, because The People have genuine oversight over their governments (facilitated by free media and an independent judiciary), it most reliably brings what people actually want, which is peace and prosperity. Neither Russia nor China would have the economies that they do today were they not rooted in the economies of western democracy.
The people don’t want to send their loved ones to war and will willingly only if attacked or to avert a larger conflict. The People only want trustworthy partners in cultural, economic, and scientific exchange. And so they get it, as the existence of the EU demonstrates. Of course, they also want effective military protection. Because they have oversight over their governments, they get it. We of the Free World have the best weapons not because we are war mongers but because The People want their loved ones to have the very best equipment we can give them if we are forced to send them into battle.
We want peace and trade among respected friends. Putin and Russia want subservient empire.
“Stalemate”? Let’s see what happens with the Ukrainian counter offensive first. But I wouldn’t call it a stalemate at this point.
Advantage Ukraine
Love listening to you.
the us is in north america, russia is between europe and asia, and china is in asia. none of them are in the "global south." where is the power center for the global south? or south america for that matter. what do we want from the global south? its not really spoken about, is it the concern of being shut out of their markets? how involved is the west in those markets?
Typically, "we" want cheap labor and natural resources from the global south, and them not cooperating with "our" enemies.
Another brilliant analysis, I really appreciate it.
In addition, I will digress through five subjective, Eurocentric and utilitarian rhetorical questions of mine. First, why the EU has not made a tiniest move towards its own internal and global repositioning since February 2022? Second, why the EU has perserverd in its role of the junior partner within the Global West (just like Russia vis-à-vis China)? Third, why the Nobel Peace Prize laureate (hereandafter the EU) has no plans in defining its own sphere of interest in promoting peace on their own borders, thus permanently removing any possibility that the countries geographically closest to Russia will ever suffer in any war? Fourth, will the EU finally resolve the issue of its own Local South (after 33+ years) before turning to the Global South (despite being out of alignment with its own EU-self and its own EU values)?
I don't want to criticize the EU. On the contrary, I want to see the EU as the Global Leader of the 21st century (or at least as a "good cop" within the Global West if other options are disabled, but never as a Senior Partner) having removed any war threat within and on the borders of the European continent forever. In this connection, my final rhetorical question follows: should the last idea become officially inaugurated as one of the major (political, strategic, economic, cultural, civilizational etc.) goals of the 21-century EU (and the 21-century Globe), and if yes, how to achieve it?
Unrelated, but thanks for saving me 20 min time on this video
Because Europe is weak, we are the junior partner to USA and Japan. We prosper because we don’t have to think about our security, the Americans did it for us.
@@TheSteinbitt But UK is stronger than Russia and China
Very accurate assessment that the Global South is the key in this matter, and the moralizing foreign policy the EU has been pursuing for years is more of an obstacle than actual help solving the crisis.
Agreed with you. They are globalism and closed to Maxism.
Global South is an utterly useless label, given that there appears to be no discernible shared characteristic between the countries within that label. It is about as useful as calling these countries “third world”. However it’s obvious that the label is now being exploited by China and Russia to create a wedge between the West and that grab bag of wildly different countries.
snaryad? snabzhenie? what is that why i don't even 没有没门hahahahah
Yes you are right, it's time to act not sit around the global table with pink glasses on. We need to surround us with global south, now it´s the time. Not tomorrow. Thanks for a great analysis. I agree totally with it. 😊
Unfortunately, it's too late for USA to engage with the global south. USA has too many skeletons and blood left behind in these countries. It has gotten to the point that the global south will cheer on the collapse of USA.
West just lectured Uganda, good job. Love from China
Before Putin invaded Ukrain, he was not seeing Si as his equal but the situation has change , Putin is humble down and look up on Si’s support 🙄🙄🙄
right on the mooche Alex Stubb...
Alex, as always thank you. I have a question that does not come from a place of arrogance but common sense. Can't we expect the Global South to accurately understand what Russia and China represent? Why tilt toward them or away from the West when it's painfully obvious Russia can't do anything for you and China offers money but autocracy with long purse strings? Some participants in the Chinese program to create infrastructure bitterly resent accepting the aid . Most would recoil at the political philosophy of China that tightly controls social and personal , if not economic freedom. Sure, that appears to another autocratic but not their citizens.
I dont think China will forget how it was treated by the Superiority Soviet Union in the old time.
@1:54 Point #1: Xi wanted to frame this as peacemaking mediating trip, building on their prior 12-point peace plan and their successful Iran-Saudi Arabia mediation, to position China as a leader in global diplomacy.
@5:20 Point #2: Putin shows the West and world he’s not completely isolated.
@7:50 Point #3: Shaping a global narrative, trying to claim the high ground while justifying both Russia’s Ukraine invasion and China’s future Taiwan invasion.
@11:02 Point #4: Tension between global West (EU, US, & allies = 25% of world’s countries) and global East (China + Russia). Ukraine is battlefield for new world order (US-led rules based vs China-led alternative).
@15:05 Point #5: The global South will be decisive in the competition between global East and West over the new world order.
China's point on territorial integrity and sovereignty includes Crimea? It is not clear right now.
@rosie: Crimea was/is part of Ukraine. When USSR dissolved, people in Crimea voted to stay with Russia before Ukraine was even a country. Many months later, people in Ukraine voted to become independent, but they wanted Crimea. Both sides had since disputed over it. With support of USA, Ukraine sent military soldiers to Crimea to crush the protesters who didn't want to be Ukrainians. Ukrainian soldiers rounded up a bunch of Russian minority into a warehouse and set place on fire. About 40 people burned to death. Russia intervened because Russia signed an agreement with Crimea in 1991 for security protection before Ukraine was even a country!! Russia didn't invade Crimea as the freaking liar Obama said.
@@elliekwong3180 Hi Ellie, don't call my President Obama a liar. Thank you.
@@RosieBaseball : That was his lesser sin. Do you know Obama funnelled $billions into Ukraine to overthrow a duly elected president. He put a puppet as a president. Biden, the VP of USA acted as the de facto president of Ukraine. Victoria Nuland acted as Biden 's de facto VP in Ukraine. Is that treason. USA since recruited and expanded neo-Nazi groups. They eventually incorporated neo-Nazi groups into Ukraine military called National Guard like Gestapo! These freaking neo-Nazi have been killing minority groups in Donbass because they rejected regime change instigated by your freaking president, Obama. What a shame that Victoria Nuland, a Ukrainian J*w would collaborate with the Nazi in killing the minority groups. That's all under the order of Obama!! Obama said " when I looked Putin in the eyes I saw evil " Unbeknown to some of us, it was the devil himself talking. Oh, did I tell you freaking Obama invaded Syria because Syria refused to allow US company to build a pipeline through Syria. Obama made up this story about Assad used chemical weapons on the Kurds. That was proven to be a big fat lie. USA destroyed the entire Allepo, home to over 100,000 people. All US presidents are serial killers. Shame on Americans for their complicity of crimes against humanity.
How disappointing that such a smart guy gets Asia so wrong. FOUR countries - Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore - have sanctioned Russia.
Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Singapore are all usually considered western countries, because they have western institutions. Russia, for example, is a mostly European country, but not a western country.
Greetings from Africa (just visiting, though) where I'd like to play a little of the antagonist to the argument about the importance of the "Global South". I think you put your finger on a weakness for China in Russia: Putin is fighting a losing battle against the West and he'll not be around forever. Even more likely is that Russia will shrink and become more of a liability in Xi's efforts. Another neighbour is a difficulty for China: India and China don't agree on much and while Modi is looking more and more autocratic every day, he's in no position to proclaim that India's territorial disputes no longer matter. Beyond that, and this coming from someone who was in Venezuela before Chavez, lots of countries in Africa and South America are going to struggle to get their house in order. I think we can all get behind the idea that the world would be a better place if Africa and So America prospered, but it's not so easy as just investing in those regions when they undermine their own success so readily. It's nothing new that Latin America has stayed out of global conflicts, but doing so hasn't really done much for them either. The problems that dog them still persist.
I did notice audience outright laffing a lavrov talking about the War so there def a chance still there of the south being liberal facing ?
In the same speech, twice they applauded him.. obviously you saw only the bits and pieces that the collective west wants to push as narrative, right? Please search and find (if you can find) the whole speech.
I think they laughed because they knew Lavrov was talking nonsense. Nothing more.
@@weewillywonga That isa powerful insight its not a case of nothing more - things like that are important
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Excellent Analysis In 20 minutes! The Global West has an advantage over the Global East in developing sustainable economic ties with the Global South because of language. The question is "how does the Global West develop political trust with the Global South to develop mutual economic prosperity?" It must start at the grass roots level!
I would think on all levels - I don't think the West has a lot of time ...
I thik that Henry Cunha hereunder, made a very good point. He said: If the developed West wants to have this Global South aligned with it more closely, there's a simple prescription: switch industries out of China and favour those countries as destinations. The developed West has a trade deficit of about US$500 billion with China -- every year.
Work to put the factories in India, Brazil, Indonesia, Argentina, Nigeria, Egypt, Phillipines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc.
It's a big task, but not beyond reach.
Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are already benefitting from a pullout from China. Indonesia especially has had most keiretsu linked businesses setup and manufacture in Bekasi. The Philippines is an extraordinary opportunity for manufacturing - high population that is well educated and hard working - they should have a great future. I think India wants to do its own nationalistic thing - which it genuinely has the capacity to do. Nigeria and Egypt are basket cases for large foreign investment. South America has always been and is likely to continue to be somewhat neutral until most of the cards are on the table exposed - I can't see them aligning with Russia and China if push comes to shove.
@jm buha: Your plan seems to be naivete. These companies went to China for profits, taking advantage of cheaper labor and the Chinese market. China has a supply chain ecosystem that cannot be or has not been duplicate d elsewhere. Ford sold more cars in China than in USA. iPhone sold more phones in China than in USA. Hollywood sold more tickets in China than in USA. Why would they want to go back to USA and lose their big market. Remember, companies are only loyal to shareholders, not their country. That's capitalism!!!
I couldn't agree more, but with one exception: the "global south" where I live (in LA). First, I don't see the GS as some kind of entity, as the geopoliticians are implying. They are not a true block of countries even if here and there you may be deluded by some shy attempts of them trying to act like adults in the room. These countries behave rather like hungry and abandoned dogs scattered around the world, just chasing the next crumbs that will fall from the table of the rich. With a few exceptions, no ideology or values drive them, just hunger and opportunity. With that in mind, I think you could better shape your very well-placed ideas around the "GS". Rgds.
Many economists proclaim that both Russia and China are heavily reliant on Western expertise and technology. And access has been closed. And such expertise is not available from the 'Global South.' ... A rebuttal would be greatly appreciated, an open mind is a free mind.
very good analysis and fair enough except one point, US is not war monster?
The US is not a war monster. It is a superpower that is projecting its power in Ukraine in the defense of European values and maintains its global dominance....
He did not say that - We all know the US is not a war monster.
But if you look at it from Xi and Putin's eyes and minds, the US and The West is the one allied power that is keeping Xi and Putin from achieving their geopolitical ambitions.
In the case of Xi, his ambition is to dominate his part of the world, the South East Asian sea and keep these countries under his influence and in Putin's case, his ambition is to keep all surrounding countries especailly those that have not yet joined the EU/NATO, afraid of Russia and whenever possible, under his direct influnce.
👉🏻👉🏼👉🏽 America calls it "Liberation" instead of "Invasion". That was what US call it in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia and the list goes on... Why the double standard? Confused... Please enlighten. Genuine question...
Instances of the United States "liberated" or overthrowing, or attempting to overthrow, a foreign government since the Second World War. (* indicates successful ouster of a government)
China 1949 to early 1960s
Albania 1949-53
East Germany 1950s
Iran 1953 *
Guatemala 1954 *
Costa Rica mid-1950s
Syria 1956-7
Egypt 1957
Indonesia 1957-8
British Guiana 1953-64 *
Iraq 1963 *
North Vietnam 1945-73
Cambodia 1955-70 *
Laos 1958 *, 1959 *, 1960 *
Ecuador 1960-63 *
Congo 1960 *
France 1965
Brazil 1962-64 *
Dominican Republic 1963 *
Cuba 1959 to present
Bolivia 1964 *
Indonesia 1965 *
Ghana 1966 *
Chile 1964-73 *
Greece 1967 *
Costa Rica 1970-71
Bolivia 1971 *
Australia 1973-75 *
Angola 1975, 1980s
Zaire 1975
Portugal 1974-76 *
Jamaica 1976-80 *
Seychelles 1979-81
Chad 1981-82 *
Grenada 1983 *
South Yemen 1982-84
Suriname 1982-84
Fiji 1987 *
Libya 1980s
Nicaragua 1981-90 *
Panama 1989 *
Bulgaria 1990 *
Albania 1991 *
Iraq 1991
Afghanistan 1980s *
Somalia 1993
Yugoslavia 1999-2000 *
Ecuador 2000 *
Afghanistan 2001 *
Venezuela 2002 *
Iraq 2003 *
Haiti 2004 *
Somalia 2007 to present
Honduras 2009 *
Libya 2011 *
Syria 2012
Ukraine 2014 *
2014 - 2022 - 6 countries yet to verify.
Pakistan 2022 *
Haiti 2022 *
All things considered, Xi and Lukashenko could also be indicted as a war criminals by the ICC, if they supply Russia with weapons and assistance in an illegal invasion. A precedent has been set. Assistive defence of Ukraine is perfectly legal by international laws, however the invasion is absolutely illegal.
What about the ILLEGAL invasion of Iraq?
Don't forget Bush, Blair, Rumsfield and their cohorts..
Lukashenko already supplied weapons and assistance to Russia, as Belarus and Russia have a formal military alliance. And China, of course, has sold to Russia many things that are useful militarily, such as drones.
So, get that kangaroo court going already?
@Joe Blogs: Why does not ICC issue a warrant for Bush, Obama and Biden for crimes against humanity. All US presidents are serial killers. Of course, ICC wouldn't dare to issue a warrant for any US president. USA will bomb the hell out of them. ICC is not a neutral organization. Russia, China, India and USA are not a member, nor do they recognize ICC.
It wont need to be a kangaroo Court, because their invasion is illegal. Simple as that.
The global south is dependant on exports to the west. China's idea of' 'partnering" with African and Asian developing states has failed; i.e. Belt & Road investments. The global south are becoming more wary of China - as its so-called 'investments' tends to lead to debit traps; i.e. Sri Lanka, etc. Russia and China are no match economically with the EU & US economies. In fact China is in a very dangerous position, because if it's seen as supporting Russia too closely, the western allies could take steps to cut China off trade. The last thing China needs right now is another economic catstrophy - the reason it seeks to foster a peace agreement.
The US and EU are closer then ever? I think there's at "hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea" that says otherwise...
You forgot to mention that For Zelenski it not "war" vs "peace", it is "war now with exhausted russia" vs "a little peace, then a war with prepared and rebuilt russia"
"US the warmonger, not the case"? 800 military bases on the planet alone😂🤣💀☠😝
Best viewed at speed 1.6.
Si is the winner ✌️
Alex, you should propose that the Finnish taxpayers invest in the global south.
They should do a song "who is the western Baghdad Booob, , jens, biden boris and soooo oooon , tralalalala ballon and so on"
Yes, Russia have to learn the west to respect the rest of the world..we in the west are making folles uf ourselves in the world. We in sweden and finland was forced into nato, didn't even vote. All bad things we says about the east mirrors us in the west.. This is Baghdad Bob style
Mr, Stubbs, I think you overestimate the important of the 'global south'. The only (important) southern countries that need some convincing are the democratic ones, for which there is not much needed if the the new world order is balancing to the wrong side. The others are mostly failed states for which convincing will be next to impossible, and are not that important on the global stage anyway.
The west could better find a way to prevent China for more or less taking over Russia, in which case a lot of dependencies from other countries will be gone for them and become a REAL superpower.
This was a great talk. You could call the new world order “postglobalist”.
China represents a peace-seeking international community. Amid all the conflicts around the globe, and all the Chinese diplomatic efforts to settle these conflicts peacefully. China proved to the world how they are “credible, lovable and respectable”.
Alex, I absolutely love this series and am so excited when a new segment shows up! About China as Peacemaker. How can one be taken seriously as a mediator and peacemaker when one has a 'relationship without limits' with one of the parties and has yet to even have a phone conversation with the other? If China wanted to be taken seriously, he would have also visited Ukraine for a few hours at least. My second point is actually a question. The relationship is now pretty much Lord and Vassal. Putin needs China way more than China needs Russia on the grand scale of things. I watched the arrival of Xi and cringed. To me, Putin totally insulted Xi by not meeting his plane personally or at least by not sending the Prime Minister or the 2nd in importance in Russia-whoever that might be be but Putin sent the Deputy Prime Minister of Tourism!!! Tourism?? Really?Then I heard Xi had been scheduled for a couple of meetings but left early. I'm just wondering if things are really 'limitless'. What is Putin's real game with China or can Putin just not play second fiddle.
@sunny, your question abt how can a country who has unlimited good relationship with Russia like China be a mediator? China also has very good relationship with Ukraine and maybe that is why 😂. Having a good relationship with someone doesn't mean that you have to hate another. No wonder the west could not do it, you are so myopic 😂
@@gwo-shyanhan1188 I would like your comment on my big question. WAS it an insult to Xi to have the lowly Minister of Tourism meet his plane or should it have been Putin himself or at least his second in command? Thanks for your response.
@@annehersey9895 nope, the reception given was great 😊.
@@gwo-shyanhan1188 thanks for answering!
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Unquestnable support for Ukraine 👍 Alternatives for Ruzzia: 1. Western minded leadership, now once failed... 2. China minded leader... are we ready to face China next to our border? 3. Collapse of Ruzzian intdrnal kolonialism, why not?
I do not believe China is big brother to Russian, When China want build train in Kazastan, Russian do not agree the project. China need 10 year till Russian agree. The project can go. So who is big brother???
Right. But why it wasn't mentioned about Japan's prime minister visiting of Ukraine on the same day when Xi was in Russia?
Prof, the term you repeatedly mentioned
Global west
Global east
Global South
aren't these terms a misnomer ?
- read 'divisive'
simple term 'multi polar world' is far more accurate to reflect what's contemporary understanding of the world order now
I'm glad you, in your final words, have admitted
the dominance of the West is indeed over
- the world had been sick of endless wars engineered by the West.
for decades.
the reality of the situation is one of
'doing good'
- one of making the best and most appealing offers to spread influences
The flaw in your thinking is the view that Asia will somehow under Chinese influence become less pluralistic. Can you cite a single example out side of Chinaa and North Korea? I can't
Are you sure? Look your video 4 months ago The title was (alex answer your questions about the war in ukraine) in that video 5:57 you told us if ukraine doesn't get back it's land ukraine is lost now you charge your idea about who will winn (russia is aready lost 😂😂😂😂) how ?
Mr. Stubb: There are many factions in western countries who want a return of colonial empires. If the Global South isn't serious about human rights and moral foreign policies, then I think we'll see a generation of westerners who no longer believe in universal western values and universal human rights. Western peoples, as we've seen with the right-wing in the US and others in Europe, are more than happy to abandon traditional western ideology (rule of law, human rights, free markets, etc) if that ideology is perceived as holding them back in a world of people who don't care for the same universal values.
The Global South needs to realize that the kind of world order that they have right now is far better than it could be (it could be even worse than it has been historically, with all the new technologies available to the great powers of the world). I don't see how abandoning universal ethics systems will in any way benefit the Global South. The Global South must support Ukraine in its struggle for its sovereignty, or they'll likely face the same future from other aggressors, some of which may even be Western nations themselves.
I don't know - did I live on another planet when colonisation and slave trades happened and made the West rich? And now you want to tell these people to better shut up and listen to what master tells them? That is just so bizarre.
We will see.
Lol - Global West, Global East, and Global South?
I also think the so-called West needs to do a better job with Global South, but kinda a different approach. I don't think of top-down approach is the way to go.
Basically the U.S. in specific The West in general need to sort out Immigration reform. it seems typically the Anglo-Saxons don't often like the Browning of their societies and all that that implies. essentially you're investing in people where you won't necessarily be getting a return in that investment. And it takes generations to bear fruit if it bears fruit at all.
I would like to see the US/Canda kind a take the lead as societies are less homogeneous and class-based. But the main would be to tie The west together with some uniform model where the West isn't completing against itself.
biggest obstacles would be societal and brain drain.
With the US has economic and cultural might we could wield soft power a lot better. And I think it starts with comprehensive immigration reform not just in the US but in the West.
I don't think Western sensitivities allow a top-down approach with African authoritarian governments.
Same way NATO doesn't want Ukraine to lose?
all in all.. xi said NO.. that's not an aliance, and it never was.. they only use each other's weight to look bigger.. it's only looks.
I think it was more of a transactional visit than we all realise. He needed to secure the new pipeline routes and access to the forthcoming cheap resources. After all, China is a global business and now has access to unsold oil & gas.
Putin has diminished power in this relationship because of his failed invasion.
For the past 10 years, Xi has already met Putin for 40 times! If anyone read about Chinese propaganda about Putin, the image of Putin is so herotic and he saved Russia from the western coerosions 😂
The meeting of Xi and Putin was not mainly about war in Ukraine, that was secondary. It was about the joint cooperation of two huge countries in economic development and to strengthen their relationship facing the isolation of the western countries. It provides huge opportunities for both Russia and China. It will change the geopolitical formation of the world. This created a huge non ally relationship in the world. The peace proposal from China is just a good intention to the western and provided a reasonable ladder for all parties involved to step down. But it will not force any one to accept any suggestions. 80% of the population are Russians in the East Ukraine. Ukraine Can't change this fact. Russia has no interest of the rest parts of the Ukraine. European wants to use the peace proposal or not, is really up to themselves. China has no invasion plans for Taiwan right now. Taiwan is not a boat that could cruise away from China sea (if it is, please go to west coast of the US, to see what the US will treat Taiwan), what is in hurry? China will solve the reunification one way or another in the future. After all, it was all about the economy, stupid!
Russia has surely no interest in other parts of Ukraine than the east which is why their main target was Kiev, am I right? 😄 As an Eastern European I would like to inform you that Russia is lying 24/7, if there is any truth in what they are saying, it is there by coincidence not by intention and they will take as much as they will be allowed to. If they are allowed to take Eastern Germany again, they will go for it, regardless where any Russians are living or not...
@@miroslavdusin4325 : I don't believe Kiev is in the East of Ukraine. I am from the far East.
@@elliekwong3180 Of course, it is not. I just wanted to show that Putin was going for the whole of Ukraine not just for the east.
Take home lesson? 枪杆没有！哈哈哈哈！！！！
Interesting. I do think the west needs to consider the global south, but not so much as a strategic political move, as in it is the right thing to do. You can't exclude the majority of the worlds population in planning a sustainable way forward.
I found myself wondering where to even begin in making overtures in the South. China and Russia are going for what will eventually be revealed as domination of those countries. They don't know how to play any other hand. Once that becomes clear, the South will quickly recognize it for exactly what it is - a lower key version of colonialism. The danger, to my mind, is that many of those governments are in fact temperamentally more aligned with authoritarianism even if their populations are not. Authoritarian or despotic rule seems a lot easier to the politicians there than consensus and inclusion. It's just a matter of applying sufficient coercion to keep it going. China and Russia are fantastic role models for that.
I was hoping for a unbiased analysis, but clearly this is a pro-western perspective analysis.
Alex has many times expressed on which "side" he is. Good analysis though...
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