The main voice on chips that I listen to is Stacy Rasgon. He’s a true analyst in the chips space and he’s not nearly as negative on Nvidia as what I’m hearing here.
Josh, it's not that they (ASICS) are NVDA competition; it's that the market altogether presents less of an opportunity for NVDA. However, in a growing pie (GPUs and ASICs), NVDA has no competition on GPUs, as AVGO does have a great position in the segment they tap due to the licenses and patents for custom-made chips they own. Even I can figure this one out. They both will be winners in their own right.
If I listened to all the naysayers on Apple over the last 15 years I would never have been able to retire early. So many parallels to NVDA including but not limited to a great moat leading to a sustainable competitive advantage. Listening to any NVDA naysayers brings back Apple memories. I'm up 20x on NVDA and used capital gains from NVDA in '24 to fund most of my expenses. Admittedly, when I bought NVDA I had no real clue on AI as it was more about their autonomous driving (chip) leadership. But being a PC first person shooter fan in the early 2000's put NVDA on my radar. Thank you, Battlefield Vietnam! (note, I am as excited about NVDA right now as I was in Dec. '23)
I completely agree that Nvidia, the company, is going absolutely nowhere and will be an industry titan for years to come. Nvdia the stock is up 2000% in quite a short time period, though. Not saying the stock can't keep going up, it can and probably will, but it seems like most the life changing money may have already been made (and good for you being one of them). It seems like these metoric rises are happening faster than ever. Part of why Apple's rise was so drawn out was because it used to be viewed mostly as a cyclical hardware company, so it had a low PE until as recently as 8 years ago or so. Nose bleed multiple expansion happened as soon as people caught on about the massive recurring revenue opportunity with the services part of the company. It wasn't just that Apple grew into a global brand, although it did. Apple was also laughably mispriced (in hindsight) at like a 14 PE or so. Nobody seems to be making the same mispricing mistake with Nvidia. Maybe they were 2000% ago, but not now. It's an ultra high growth company with an ultra high PE. Don't get me wrong, I think it's probably priced fairly, or maybe it's even a little cheap after the pullback... But people don't retire early off fairly valued stocks. Unless they've got enough money to throw in that they're already pretty close... Just my two cents.
I 100% agree on NVDA. I just finished reading "The Nvidia Way." I will continue to bet on Jensen. I own some NVDA, but I wished I owned more. Apple seems to be the opposite of Nvidia. There's zero innovation at Apple these days.
@@tmclean9 Jensen is one of the elite CEOs who had a vision and executed (nailed) it when others stayed still. I will give him the benefit of the doubt until I hear him say X and Y happens. He deserves that much. (note, I am still in shock at what has happened to Intel. They are the IBM and Blackberry of this generation )
Josh and Mike, read "The Nvidia Way." Great book. Why do they keep winning? Jensen and his team work harder! If you drive past Nvidia HQ on a random Wednesday evening, its parking lot is full. Apple's and Google's HQs are empty at 7PM.
@@hafeld8348 He didn't say they compete with each other. He said Nvidia can't keep up with demand, and hyperscalers aren't going to wait for them to be able to fulfill it, and so they will work with companies like Broadcom for alternative solutions to Nvidia GPUs. Really not that hard to understand lol. He's been in the stock for 10 years, but he says one slightly negative thing and according to you he doesn't understand the company 🤣
We actually got a Hindenburg indicator flash today, and there was one back in November, if we get two in the same month that big deal, Josh talk about that
Spectacular episode, gents!! Loved the chips analysis. Loved the bull market discussion. Really good insight on the window dressing perspective on big $ and AAPL vs oil, materials, etc. Loved the MRNA piece … wish you would have seen a bull case for my last $10k invested dying a slow death. Hoping to catch PYPL on a dip. TY both.
You’ve not considered that NVDA is years ahead of the others along the learning curve involved not only in manufacturing GPU’s but in the installation and use of them in a wide variety of applications and different industries which the others will never achieve. Would you hire a surgeon who only performed a particular procedure on one patient?
Hey compound guys, I recall Michael being a part of an episode that outlined Broadcom as the next 10x stock in 2021/2022? Can’t remember if it was with Ben or Josh. Do you guys have a link to that episode?
You need to break the CUDA moat with easy entry software and hardware. Even Oneapi (intel) and rocm (amd) need to contend with this. The rest require their own ecosystem.
How did you and Josh miss buying tesla when it was down over 60% in 2022? I mean you all praise him and he’s on headlines everywhere for being a genius and landing rockets, yet you all COMPLETELY missed buying his company on sale for 70% off? How did you guys miss this? It’s now up over 300% since.
Because it’s at the end of the day it’s a momentum / speculative stock that on paper is vulnerable to Chinese car makers due to car sales, politics, and an unpredictable leader. If you don’t see it, it’s okay because you’ve probably had enough fanboy faith in this company to make a mint.
I enjoyed Josh's take, I'd recommend anyone interested in the Semi's also check out the recent BG2 pod with Brad Gerstner and Semi-analyst Dylan Patel. They went over all the Semi makers and what they actually thrive at. Interestingly, they said AMD is great at making silicon, but don't know how to develop software or build systems. The hyperscalers have even been trying to help AMD with this, but they won't even build their own cluster in house to learn from.
Other chip companies cannot compete. Just as Google worked on TPU, Qualcomm had similar tech before that time, and Apple also worked on it... The issue would be companies cannot trash margin unless they got untouchable cash cow.
EVERYONE who agrees with me please thumbs up - this has been the most focused and very helpful video that you can watch without the banter, side jokes, riff-raffs , sports talk, movie references... see guys you can do it! I didnt have to skip anything so far and its 31 mins into it. Now what happened to AMD's programmable Xylinx acquisition? Back in 2018 they were talking about neural networks under them. Maybe that integration did work out well? Anyone have insight on this?
Lesson to not buy options if you don’t know what you’re doing… I lost 7,000 in Block 2024 $250 calls. I got back in the stock with shares at $40, but still not close to making back the money I lost in the stock lol. Own the shares, that way you can always average down if you still believe in the stock.
My outperformance in 2024 came from fallen covid angels rising. Fintech was a lot of it. My most regrettable sells are also those companies. Also was riding SMCI from 414 to 1066. Good times.
Please read "The Nvidia Way." The book just came out Tuesday. I just finished the book today. Let me know if you still think the easy money is in the past.
Companies that maintain dominance for long periods of times rarely do so through technological superiority. If a benchmark came out showing that the iPhone was "slower" than the new Samsung phone, probably about 100 people would care. But if a benchmark came out showing that AMD had a stronger performing chip than Nvidia, it's game over. Nvidia has a great brand, but it's meaningless to a corporation. I'm not sure when, I'm not sure how, and I'm not sure who, but some day, Nvidia will not be the top dog. And the value of the business will crater.
Just because I sing Elvis at karaoke parties, doesn't mean anyone would pay me to sing. Jensen is Elvis in his prime. He's meeting prime ministers and presidents, already selling to governments. Let the hyperscalers spin tales about them doing it "themselves".
OK, let me inform you of a truth. All roads lead to Nvidia to some degree, but all roads TRULY lead to TSMC. What this means: all of Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, etc GPUs or GPU-equivalents need CoWoS advanced packaging from TSMC. (Hint: they also ALL need HBM memory. Who makes that? Who has high-quality HBM to sell?) There is no Nvidia, no MI325 or MI350 or Amazon Trainium or any ANYTHING without TSMC's CoWoS. TSMC can make a certain amount of CoWoS packaging per unit time. If AMD hasn't RESERVED capacity, it DOESN'T MATTER how many order they get. Period. Earlier this year, AMD released some CoWoS capacity because they couldn't get orders to consume it. Nvidia IMMEDIATELY bought the capacity that AMD released. Think about that. What I'm saying: I DON'T GIVE A SH*T what AMD says about orders, what Amazon says about orders, what Qualcomm says about orders. Nvidia has the most CoWoS capacity reserved, and they have the ability to write checks in ANY AMOUNT to TSMC to reserve the CoWoS. If you can't figure out what this means, you should not be investing in tech companies. And, I'm sorry, I hate to be a jerk, but Josh's explanation of what an ASIC is and why you'd want it and the fact that Marvell makes ASICs is just wrong. Sorry Dude, study a bit, just a bit, more. Marvell makes SoCs for things like second-tier smart phones. Yes, they make more than that, but ASICs are not the answer if you "can't get GPUS." Oh my goodness.
Actually you might want to study. That’s a lot of CAPS LOCK in one comment. Sorry about the performance of TSMC, I’m rooting for it to act better for you.
@@TheCompoundNewscouldn’t have said it better. When stocks don’t perform for people it often makes some people triple down on why they are right. The market doesn’t care what you think. Just get over it and move on to the next thesis/ trade.
Often lost and forgotten, the vagueness and the mud I'd been thinking I'm working too hard, but I got something to show Found someone who can comfort me, but there are always exceptions And she's good at appearing sane, but I just want you to know.....Staring at empty pages, centered 'round the same old plot Staring at empty pages, flowing along the ages.....NVDA 2 steps forward 1 step back...for 20 years....its recoiling...and Jensen says they are the Market Makers...they want success You guys are great at your jobs. !!!!
Shout out to @JimCramer. He has been a fan of AVGO for quit sometime. This is not to disparage you guys though. Collectively, you all are right on a lot of things.
This episode is sponsored by Rocket Money! Cancel your unwanted subscriptions today by visiting: rocketmoney.com/compound
every episode is teeming with super valuable up to the moment information. i couldn’t be more appreciative 🙏
The main voice on chips that I listen to is Stacy Rasgon. He’s a true analyst in the chips space and he’s not nearly as negative on Nvidia as what I’m hearing here.
Josh, it's not that they (ASICS) are NVDA competition; it's that the market altogether presents less of an opportunity for NVDA. However, in a growing pie (GPUs and ASICs), NVDA has no competition on GPUs, as AVGO does have a great position in the segment they tap due to the licenses and patents for custom-made chips they own. Even I can figure this one out. They both will be winners in their own right.
If I listened to all the naysayers on Apple over the last 15 years I would never have been able to retire early. So many parallels to NVDA including but not limited to a great moat leading to a sustainable competitive advantage. Listening to any NVDA naysayers brings back Apple memories. I'm up 20x on NVDA and used capital gains from NVDA in '24 to fund most of my expenses. Admittedly, when I bought NVDA I had no real clue on AI as it was more about their autonomous driving (chip) leadership. But being a PC first person shooter fan in the early 2000's put NVDA on my radar. Thank you, Battlefield Vietnam! (note, I am as excited about NVDA right now as I was in Dec. '23)
I completely agree that Nvidia, the company, is going absolutely nowhere and will be an industry titan for years to come. Nvdia the stock is up 2000% in quite a short time period, though. Not saying the stock can't keep going up, it can and probably will, but it seems like most the life changing money may have already been made (and good for you being one of them).
It seems like these metoric rises are happening faster than ever. Part of why Apple's rise was so drawn out was because it used to be viewed mostly as a cyclical hardware company, so it had a low PE until as recently as 8 years ago or so.
Nose bleed multiple expansion happened as soon as people caught on about the massive recurring revenue opportunity with the services part of the company. It wasn't just that Apple grew into a global brand, although it did. Apple was also laughably mispriced (in hindsight) at like a 14 PE or so.
Nobody seems to be making the same mispricing mistake with Nvidia. Maybe they were 2000% ago, but not now. It's an ultra high growth company with an ultra high PE. Don't get me wrong, I think it's probably priced fairly, or maybe it's even a little cheap after the pullback... But people don't retire early off fairly valued stocks. Unless they've got enough money to throw in that they're already pretty close... Just my two cents.
I 100% agree on NVDA. I just finished reading "The Nvidia Way." I will continue to bet on Jensen. I own some NVDA, but I wished I owned more. Apple seems to be the opposite of Nvidia. There's zero innovation at Apple these days.
@@tmclean9 Jensen is one of the elite CEOs who had a vision and executed (nailed) it when others stayed still. I will give him the benefit of the doubt until I hear him say X and Y happens. He deserves that much. (note, I am still in shock at what has happened to Intel. They are the IBM and Blackberry of this generation )
This is the way
Batnick disagrees, he gave zero credit to long-term Nvidia investors, but he's bullish on Bitcoin because "Crypto goes up". LOL.
Josh and Mike, read "The Nvidia Way." Great book. Why do they keep winning? Jensen and his team work harder! If you drive past Nvidia HQ on a random Wednesday evening, its parking lot is full. Apple's and Google's HQs are empty at 7PM.
@@hafeld8348 He didn't say they compete with each other. He said Nvidia can't keep up with demand, and hyperscalers aren't going to wait for them to be able to fulfill it, and so they will work with companies like Broadcom for alternative solutions to Nvidia GPUs. Really not that hard to understand lol. He's been in the stock for 10 years, but he says one slightly negative thing and according to you he doesn't understand the company 🤣
Nvda is a scoop and score. Buy.
THAT DOWNTOWN CHIPS MONOLOGUE WAS HIS BEST PERFORMANCE EVER MAYBE ON THIS POD.
If there’s a company that starts making GPU’s and GLP-1’s together I’m 1,000% long on it
Well Micheal your warning at the end of the show prompted me to take some profits this morning. Kudos to you!!!!
Best intro music on earth. Let it ride
Their original intro yrs ago was even better
good show, keep up the good work
People talking like Nvidia crashed, it just went up over 1000%, lol
People act like pullbacks aren't healthy.
yeah but it sucks getting trapped near the top with dead money.
congrats to those who got in 1000% ago.
Seems like an easy swing trade.
Yeah but the people up 1000% are probably not buying anymore. You need new money and traders to come in. It could easily be range bound all year
That’s what I’m saying if u got in at 50 your still up almost 300%😂 I think this is just a pullback and it continues 2025
“Owning Moderna is worse than getting Covid” haha
😂
We actually got a Hindenburg indicator flash today, and there was one back in November, if we get two in the same month that big deal, Josh talk about that
Loved the comments about watching a stock you know is going higher and you didn’t pull the buy trigger on. For me: TJX around $70, Marvel around $50
9:21 I laughed out loud….alone in my house. Well done Mike
same!
Thank you! I learned a lot from this video.
This show is the best stocks show ever. Learn so much from you two, and it’s funny. Fn awesome
Also JB your latest book was an awesome listen
Great video, thanks gents!
thank you or bringing up semiconductors. About time isn’t it…You rock 👊🏻
I own avgo starting from 2012 and my return is more than 2000% before yesterday’s correction! I also own Marvell and have 100% return for 2024!
Spectacular episode, gents!! Loved the chips analysis. Loved the bull market discussion. Really good insight on the window dressing perspective on big $ and AAPL vs oil, materials, etc. Loved the MRNA piece … wish you would have seen a bull case for my last $10k invested dying a slow death. Hoping to catch PYPL on a dip. TY both.
Of all those, ARM has the best looking chart. 😃😃😃😃
Great show. At least 5 lols
At the end: “So, Duncan…if I were to pull-“
Excellent video gentlemen. Josh, you're the best! Been following you for years on CNBC. Thanks for Arista Networks recommendation back in mid-2023!!
You’ve not considered that NVDA is years ahead of the others along the learning curve involved not only in manufacturing GPU’s but in the installation and use of them in a wide variety of applications and different industries which the others will never achieve. Would you hire a surgeon who only performed a particular procedure on one patient?
Post credits scene easter egg! So Duncan, what's it going to be?
Great show!
Hey compound guys, I recall Michael being a part of an episode that outlined Broadcom as the next 10x stock in 2021/2022? Can’t remember if it was with Ben or Josh. Do you guys have a link to that episode?
MVRL Custom Chips are the new way to make AI precogs to do specific task!
You need to break the CUDA moat with easy entry software and hardware. Even Oneapi (intel) and rocm (amd) need to contend with this. The rest require their own ecosystem.
How did you and Josh miss buying tesla when it was down over 60% in 2022? I mean you all praise him and he’s on headlines everywhere for being a genius and landing rockets, yet you all COMPLETELY missed buying his company on sale for 70% off? How did you guys miss this? It’s now up over 300% since.
Because it’s at the end of the day it’s a momentum / speculative stock that on paper is vulnerable to Chinese car makers due to car sales, politics, and an unpredictable leader. If you don’t see it, it’s okay because you’ve probably had enough fanboy faith in this company to make a mint.
I enjoyed Josh's take, I'd recommend anyone interested in the Semi's also check out the recent BG2 pod with Brad Gerstner and Semi-analyst Dylan Patel. They went over all the Semi makers and what they actually thrive at. Interestingly, they said AMD is great at making silicon, but don't know how to develop software or build systems. The hyperscalers have even been trying to help AMD with this, but they won't even build their own cluster in house to learn from.
Other chip companies cannot compete. Just as Google worked on TPU, Qualcomm had similar tech before that time, and Apple also worked on it... The issue would be companies cannot trash margin unless they got untouchable cash cow.
I like chatGPT openAI waaaaayyy better than google.
Why?
EVERYONE who agrees with me please thumbs up - this has been the most focused and very helpful video that you can watch without the banter, side jokes, riff-raffs , sports talk, movie references... see guys you can do it! I didnt have to skip anything so far and its 31 mins into it. Now what happened to AMD's programmable Xylinx acquisition? Back in 2018 they were talking about neural networks under them. Maybe that integration did work out well?
Anyone have insight on this?
Nobody talking about Micron with 400% rev growth in AI sales which now accounts for 50% of total Micron revenue.
The comment about Satiya Nadala's interview with Brad Gurshner. Not sure them understanding only 8/9% of it was a complement or shade.
The Dre and Snoop Album is an audiophiles wet dream 😅
Lesson to not buy options if you don’t know what you’re doing…
I lost 7,000 in Block 2024 $250 calls.
I got back in the stock with shares at $40, but still not close to making back the money I lost in the stock lol. Own the shares, that way you can always average down if you still believe in the stock.
My outperformance in 2024 came from fallen covid angels rising. Fintech was a lot of it. My most regrettable sells are also those companies. Also was riding SMCI from 414 to 1066. Good times.
I´m from Peru and Jack D. was my ayahuasca roomate a couple years ago ;)
In 2023, NVDA also made all of its gains in the first half of the year, and consolidated for the entire second half. 2024 has played out the same way.
Exactly. And the media told this exact same story. It just happens again and again.
Mike is the ultimate contra on semis
Josh doesn’t want to hear it but Tesla has been designing asics for 5+ years now
You know the dumpster fire is real when having covid is better news than owning Moderna 🤣
Dude we literally have drone taxis in the works and I would bet that the government is running the drones
Contracting ? Good guess Michael.
Don't forget while these guys are trying to catch up to Nvidia and the videos are already working on their second third and fourth generation chips
Forget sound effects gotta go. It’s hard to actually take these guys seriously with all their sound effects. They should just keep it simple.
how did i find myself here?
How can I trust Michael's opinion on anything when he hasn't heard about the drones
"I get most of my news from Bethany Frankel." Josh Brown.
The easy money has already been made in NVDA.
Retail always wants to buy the most hyped up stocks 😂😂😂
Please read "The Nvidia Way." The book just came out Tuesday. I just finished the book today. Let me know if you still think the easy money is in the past.
Wow… That was probably the worst make the case yet 😂 Michael basically convinced himself not to buy Moderna as he was making the case.
Companies that maintain dominance for long periods of times rarely do so through technological superiority. If a benchmark came out showing that the iPhone was "slower" than the new Samsung phone, probably about 100 people would care.
But if a benchmark came out showing that AMD had a stronger performing chip than Nvidia, it's game over. Nvidia has a great brand, but it's meaningless to a corporation. I'm not sure when, I'm not sure how, and I'm not sure who, but some day, Nvidia will not be the top dog. And the value of the business will crater.
STRONG DISAGREE on snoops new album…
strong disagree on snoop anything.
Just because I sing Elvis at karaoke parties, doesn't mean anyone would pay me to sing. Jensen is Elvis in his prime. He's meeting prime ministers and presidents, already selling to governments. Let the hyperscalers spin tales about them doing it "themselves".
37:44 😂
OK, let me inform you of a truth. All roads lead to Nvidia to some degree, but all roads TRULY lead to TSMC. What this means: all of Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, etc GPUs or GPU-equivalents need CoWoS advanced packaging from TSMC. (Hint: they also ALL need HBM memory. Who makes that? Who has high-quality HBM to sell?) There is no Nvidia, no MI325 or MI350 or Amazon Trainium or any ANYTHING without TSMC's CoWoS. TSMC can make a certain amount of CoWoS packaging per unit time. If AMD hasn't RESERVED capacity, it DOESN'T MATTER how many order they get. Period. Earlier this year, AMD released some CoWoS capacity because they couldn't get orders to consume it. Nvidia IMMEDIATELY bought the capacity that AMD released. Think about that. What I'm saying: I DON'T GIVE A SH*T what AMD says about orders, what Amazon says about orders, what Qualcomm says about orders. Nvidia has the most CoWoS capacity reserved, and they have the ability to write checks in ANY AMOUNT to TSMC to reserve the CoWoS. If you can't figure out what this means, you should not be investing in tech companies. And, I'm sorry, I hate to be a jerk, but Josh's explanation of what an ASIC is and why you'd want it and the fact that Marvell makes ASICs is just wrong. Sorry Dude, study a bit, just a bit, more. Marvell makes SoCs for things like second-tier smart phones. Yes, they make more than that, but ASICs are not the answer if you "can't get GPUS." Oh my goodness.
Actually you might want to study. That’s a lot of CAPS LOCK in one comment. Sorry about the performance of TSMC, I’m rooting for it to act better for you.
@@TheCompoundNewscouldn’t have said it better. When stocks don’t perform for people it often makes some people triple down on why they are right. The market doesn’t care what you think. Just get over it and move on to the next thesis/ trade.
Often lost and forgotten, the vagueness and the mud
I'd been thinking I'm working too hard, but I got something to show
Found someone who can comfort me, but there are always exceptions
And she's good at appearing sane, but I just want you to know.....Staring at empty pages, centered 'round the same old plot
Staring at empty pages, flowing along the ages.....NVDA 2 steps forward 1 step back...for 20 years....its recoiling...and Jensen says they are the Market Makers...they want success You guys are great at your jobs. !!!!
SQQQ
The drones looking for Alpha line was pretty good. Let. Batnick. Cook.
Are you guys still on Xitter? With the Nazis and the trolls and the bots? And Musk -- he's still there, right?
Shut up boomer
Lame
Shout out to @JimCramer. He has been a fan of AVGO for quit sometime. This is not to disparage you guys though. Collectively, you all are right on a lot of things.