Manifold Markets
Manifold Markets
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Press X to Doubt — Journalism Edition (Patrick McKenzie)
You might remember the New York Magazine viral article about the $50k in a shoebox. There exists a Manifold Market as to whether this is true. What do you think an irrational amount of effort in this market would look like?
Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) gives his takes on investigative journalism through a true story of his own.
Link to the market patio11 references: manifold.markets/patio11/will-new-york-magazine-walk-back-th
Patrick McKenzie/patio11 - www.kalzumeus.com/
Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
มุมมอง: 127

วีดีโอ

Tech Trees for an Ambitious Future - Allison Duettmann
มุมมอง 3884 หลายเดือนก่อน
Allison Duettmann, CEO of the Foresight Institute, gives a brief history of the organization's work on non-consensus science, and presents on "technology trees" - up-to-date, open-source maps of future technology. Allison Duettmann - foresight.org/our-team/allison-duettmann-president-ceo/ Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
The Elegance of Land Value Taxes - Nate Foss
มุมมอง 6954 หลายเดือนก่อน
Nate Foss shares his thoughts on Land Value Taxes and their surprising elegance. Nate Foss - www.linkedin.com/in/npfoss Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
Science Funding Should Be Capricious - Samo Burja
มุมมอง 6884 หลายเดือนก่อน
Samo Burja lays out some of his thoughts on his visions for what science funding could ideally look like, and takes questions from the audience. Samo Burja - samoburja.com/ Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
Academia and Prediction Markets - John Phillips (PredictIt)
มุมมอง 934 หลายเดือนก่อน
John Phillips, cofounder of PredictIt and CEO of Aristotle (the parent company behind PredictIt), shares his thoughts on academia and prediction markets. John Phillips - www.linkedin.com/in/john-aristotle-phillips-7a13991 Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is PredictIt was a Silver-tier sponsor at Manifest 2024. Learn more at
Starting a Microschool - Kelsey Piper and June Kreml
มุมมอง 3534 หลายเดือนก่อน
Kelsey Piper and June Kreml share their thoughts on starting a microschool in Berkeley. Kelsey Piper - x.com/kelseytuoc June Kreml - www.linkedin.com/in/june-kreml-726070158 Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
Homo Economicus Wannabees - Daniel Reeves
มุมมอง 2744 หลายเดือนก่อน
Daniel Reeves, the founder of Beeminder, talks about his experience putting economic decision-making to work in his personal life. This talk was hosted at Manifest 2024 (www.manifest.is/); Beeminder was a Silver-tier sponsor of Manifest 2024. Beeminder: www.beeminder.com/
The Politics of Election Market Bans - Jeremiah Johnson, Maxim Lott, Peter Hammon
มุมมอง 924 หลายเดือนก่อน
Jeremiah Johnson (founder of the Center for New Liberalism), Maxim Lott (creator of ElectionBettingOdds.com), and Peter Hammon (lawyer advising various prediction market & sports betting platforms) discuss the politics of election market bans. Jeremiah Johnson - cnliberalism.org/people/jeremiah-johnson Maxim Lott - maximlott Peter Hammon - velawood.com/attorney/peter-hammon/ Held at...
The Future of Prediction Markets James Grugett
มุมมอง 2444 หลายเดือนก่อน
By James Grugett (x.com/jahooma) Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
Retrofund More than Just Crypto - Evan Miyazono
มุมมอง 1874 หลายเดือนก่อน
Evan Miyazono (www.linkedin.com/in/evan-miyazono/) on retroactive funding, impact markets, and similar mechanisms for funding more good scientific research cheaper and faster. Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
Forecasting AI Risks - Ben Mann
มุมมอง 4524 หลายเดือนก่อน
Ben Mann (benjmann.net/) on forecasting AI risks, and Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy. Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is [Content note: the original talk included ~30 minutes of Q&A, which has been removed from the recorded version.]
Discount Rates with Byrne Hobart
มุมมอง 8135 หลายเดือนก่อน
Byrne Hobart writes The Diff (www.thediff.co/), a popular finance & technology newsletter. In this talk, he discusses the importance of discount rates in long-term decisions, particularly when dealing with low probabilities of outcomes with an outsized impact. Learn more about Manifest at www.manifest.is/
A Fireside Chat with Kalshi CTO Luana Lopez Lara
มุมมอง 2K5 หลายเดือนก่อน
Kalshi CTO Luana Lopez discusses why hedge funds are betting big on Kalshi, the company's story suing the CFTC, and a variety of other topics in a casual chat with Nate Foss. Kalshi was a Platinum-tier sponsor of Manifest 2024. Learn more about Kalshi: www.kalshi.com (seriously, Kalshi's really cool - go check them out.) Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
What will March 2020 for AI look like? (Dwarkesh Patel)
มุมมอง 10K5 หลายเดือนก่อน
In March 2020, the world suddenly noticed COVID-19. What will that moment look like for AI? Dwarkesh Patel (www.dwarkeshpatel.com/) discusses his thoughts on the parallels between AI and COVID. Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
Cultural Drift - Robin Hanson
มุมมอง 2.7K6 หลายเดือนก่อน
Robin Hanson speaking on cultural drift at Manifest 2024. Robin's other writings on cultural drift: - (paid) quillette.com/2024/04/11/beware-cultural-drift/ - www.overcomingbias.com/p/how-fix-cultural-drift Held at Manifest 2024 - www.manifest.is
The Future of Substack - Fireside Chat with CEO Chris Best
มุมมอง 3696 หลายเดือนก่อน
The Future of Substack - Fireside Chat with CEO Chris Best
Forecasting the Biological Century - Razib Khan
มุมมอง 1.1K6 หลายเดือนก่อน
Forecasting the Biological Century - Razib Khan
FutureSearch: Integrating AI into Forecasting with Dan Schwarz
มุมมอง 3206 หลายเดือนก่อน
FutureSearch: Integrating AI into Forecasting with Dan Schwarz
The Two Cultures - Agnes Callard & Robin Hanson
มุมมอง 1.1K6 หลายเดือนก่อน
The Two Cultures - Agnes Callard & Robin Hanson
Fireside Chat with Nate Silver and Scott Alexander
มุมมอง 7K6 หลายเดือนก่อน
Fireside Chat with Nate Silver and Scott Alexander
Betting on the Peloponnesian War - Michael Wheatley
มุมมอง 4536 หลายเดือนก่อน
Betting on the Peloponnesian War - Michael Wheatley
Will Machine Learning Revolutionize Loans? (Fireside Chat with Paul Gu)
มุมมอง 2356 หลายเดือนก่อน
Will Machine Learning Revolutionize Loans? (Fireside Chat with Paul Gu)
Predicting War Markets by Douglas Campbell and Abhishek Kylasa
มุมมอง 521ปีที่แล้ว
Predicting War Markets by Douglas Campbell and Abhishek Kylasa
Functions as Forecasts by Ozzie Gooen
มุมมอง 463ปีที่แล้ว
Functions as Forecasts by Ozzie Gooen
Fireside Chat: Patrick McKenzie
มุมมอง 1.1Kปีที่แล้ว
Fireside Chat: Patrick McKenzie
Prediction Markets vs Financial Markets by Byrne Hobart
มุมมอง 817ปีที่แล้ว
Prediction Markets vs Financial Markets by Byrne Hobart
Revolution Strategies by Robin Hanson
มุมมอง 1.2Kปีที่แล้ว
Revolution Strategies by Robin Hanson
Manifold Founders Q+A by Austin Chen, Stephen Grugett and James Grugett
มุมมอง 184ปีที่แล้ว
Manifold Founders Q A by Austin Chen, Stephen Grugett and James Grugett
Eliezer vs Destiny Debate
มุมมอง 6Kปีที่แล้ว
Eliezer vs Destiny Debate
Nate Silver Fireside Chat
มุมมอง 868ปีที่แล้ว
Nate Silver Fireside Chat