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Theo Jaffee
เข้าร่วมเมื่อ 10 ก.พ. 2019
#19: Samo Burja - Superintelligence and History, Ideology, and 21st Century Philosophy
Samo Burja is a writer, historian, and political scientist, the founder of civilizational consulting firm Bismarck Analysis, and the editor-in-chief of governance futurism magazine Palladium.
0:00 - Intro
1:06 - Implications of OpenAI o1
10:21 - Implications of superintelligence on history
35:06 - Palladium, Chinese technocracy, ideology, and media
1:00:44 - Best ideas, philosophers, and works of the past 20-30 years
Samo’s Website: samoburja.com/
Bismarck Analysis: www.bismarckanalysis.com/
Palladium: www.palladiummag.com/
Bismarck’s Twitter: x.com/bismarckanlys
Palladium’s Twitter: x.com/palladiummag
Samo’s Twitter: x.com/samoburja
Transcript: www.theojaffee.com/p/19-samo-burja
More Episodes
TH-cam: tinyurl.com/57jr42wk
Spotify: tinyurl.com/mrxkkhb4
Apple Podcasts: tinyurl.com/yck8pnmf
My Twitter: x.com/theojaffee
My Substack: www.theojaffee.com
0:00 - Intro
1:06 - Implications of OpenAI o1
10:21 - Implications of superintelligence on history
35:06 - Palladium, Chinese technocracy, ideology, and media
1:00:44 - Best ideas, philosophers, and works of the past 20-30 years
Samo’s Website: samoburja.com/
Bismarck Analysis: www.bismarckanalysis.com/
Palladium: www.palladiummag.com/
Bismarck’s Twitter: x.com/bismarckanlys
Palladium’s Twitter: x.com/palladiummag
Samo’s Twitter: x.com/samoburja
Transcript: www.theojaffee.com/p/19-samo-burja
More Episodes
TH-cam: tinyurl.com/57jr42wk
Spotify: tinyurl.com/mrxkkhb4
Apple Podcasts: tinyurl.com/yck8pnmf
My Twitter: x.com/theojaffee
My Substack: www.theojaffee.com
มุมมอง: 775
วีดีโอ
#18: Alec Stapp - The Institute for Progress, American Dynamism, and Fixing Governance
มุมมอง 1095 หลายเดือนก่อน
Alec Stapp is the co-founder and co-CEO of the Institute for Progress, a non-profit think tank dedicated to accelerating scientific, technological, and industrial progress. 0:00 - Intro 1:13 - Why can’t smart people fix the Bay Area? 3:38 - How to get normal people on board with IFP 10:23 - How to get smart people into governance 15:55 - How IFP chose its priorities 21:56 - How will IFP avoid m...
#17: Casey Handmer - Terraform, solar, space, Hyperloop, and how to think
มุมมอง 7446 หลายเดือนก่อน
Casey Handmer is the founder and CEO of Terraform Industries and a physicist, immigrant, pilot, dad, solar enthusiast, Caltech physics PhD and former Hyperloop One levitation engineer and NASA JPL software system architect. 0:00 - Intro 1:40 - Why don’t other people do what Terraform does? 2:51 - Why is solar better than nuclear fusion? 5:27 - Could carbon emissions actually be good? 8:38 - Why...
#16: Stephen Grugett and Austin Chen - Manifold, Manifund, Manifest, prediction markets, and EA
มุมมอง 1066 หลายเดือนก่อน
Stephen Grugett and Austin Chen are co-founders of Manifold Markets, an online play-money prediction market and competitive forecasting platform. Stephen currently serves on the company’s management, while Austin recently stepped down to start Manifund, a unique, open-source grant program. This video is not sponsored in any way by Manifold, Manifund, or Manifest - I just think they’re cool. 0:0...
#15: Perry Metzger - Extropians, Nanotech, AI Optimism, and the Alliance for the Future
มุมมอง 4327 หลายเดือนก่อน
Perry Metzger is an entrepreneur, technology manager, consultant, computer scientist, early proponent of extropianism and futurism, and co-founder and chairman of the Alliance for the Future. 0:00 - Intro 0:47 - How Perry got into extropianism 7:04 - Is extropianism the same as e/acc? 9:38 - Why extropianism died out 12:59 - Eliezer Yudkowsky 17:19 - Perry and Eliezer’s Twitter beef 19:46 - TES...
#14: Robin Hanson - Cultural Drift, Ems, Elephants, and The Future
มุมมอง 1.1K8 หลายเดือนก่อน
Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University, the author of The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain, the writer of the blog Overcoming Bias, and one of the most interesting polymaths alive today. 0:00 - Intro 1:24 - Mathematical models and grabby aliens 9:11 - Will we run out of value in the future? 12:23 - Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns 14:29 - Posadism 17:53...
#13: Nick Simmons - All About Urbit
มุมมอง 928 หลายเดือนก่อน
Nick Simmons is a founding partner at Octu Ventures, a member-driven venture DAO investing in teams building on Urbit. Urbit is a new computing paradigm that provides complete ownership of your digital world. 0:00 - Intro 1:19 - What actually is Urbit? 5:43 - Urbit ID and Schelling points 9:05 - Why Urbit? 10:23 - Roko Mijic on Urbit vs. TikTok and Crypto 17:32 - Urbit vs. Worldcoin 22:26 - Nic...
#12: Paul Buchheit - Creating Gmail, Fixing Google, Narrative Understanding
มุมมอง 3129 หลายเดือนก่อน
#12: Paul Buchheit - Creating Gmail, Fixing Google, Narrative Understanding
#11: Bryan Caplan - You Will Not Stampede Me: Essays on Non-Conformism
มุมมอง 2K10 หลายเดือนก่อน
Bryan Caplan is a professor of economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, writer at EconLib and Bet On It, and best-selling author of eight books, including You Will Not Stampede Me: Essays on Non-Conformism, the subject of this episode. 0:00 - Intro 2:04 - The Next Crusade 3:44 - Moderating X 6:11 - Inventing Slippery Sl...
#10: Liron Shapira - AI doom, FOOM, rationalism, and crypto
มุมมอง 1.2Kปีที่แล้ว
Liron Shapira is an entrepreneur, angel investor, and CEO of counseling startup Relationship Hero. He’s also a rationalist, advisor for the Machine Intelligence Research Institute and Center for Applied Rationality, and a consistently candid AI doom pointer-outer. - Liron’s Twitter: liron - Liron’s Substack: lironshapira.substack.com/ - Liron’s old blog, Bloated MVP: www.bloatedmvp....
#9: Dwarkesh Patel - Podcasting, AI, Talent, and Fixing Government
มุมมอง 1.1Kปีที่แล้ว
Dwarkesh Patel is the host of the Dwarkesh Podcast, where he interviews intellectuals, scientists, historians, economists, and founders about their big ideas. He does deep research and asks great questions. Past podcast guests include billionaire entrepreneur and investor Marc Andreessen, economist and polymath Tyler Cowen, and OpenAI Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever. Dwarkesh has been recommende...
#8: Scott Aaronson - Quantum computing, AI watermarking, Superalignment, complexity, and rationalism
มุมมอง 3.1Kปีที่แล้ว
Scott Aaronson is the Schlumberger Chair of Computer Science and Director of the Quantum Information Center at the University of Texas at Austin. Previously, he got his bachelor’s in CS from Cornell, his PhD in complexity theory at UC Berkeley, held postdocs at Princeton and Waterloo, and taught at MIT. Currently, he’s on leave to work on OpenAI’s Superalignment team. Scott’s blog, Shtetl-Optim...
#7: Nora Belrose - EleutherAI, Interpretability, Linguistics, and ELK
มุมมอง 557ปีที่แล้ว
Nora Belrose is the Head of Interpretability at EleutherAI, and a noted AI optimist. Nora’s Twitter: x.com/norabelrose EleutherAI Website: www.eleuther.ai/ EleutherAI Discord: discord.gg/zBGx3azzUn PODCAST LINKS: Video Transcript: www.theojaffee.com/p/7-nora-belrose Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1IJRtB8FP4Cnq8lWuuCdvW?si=eba62a72e6234efb Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/theo-jaffe...
#6: Razib Khan - Genetics, ancient history, rationalism, IQ
มุมมอง 2.4Kปีที่แล้ว
Razib Khan is a geneticist, the CXO and CSO of a biotech startup, and a writer and podcaster with interests in genetics, genomics, evolution, history, and politics. Razib’s Twitter: x.com/razibkhan Razib’s Website: www.razib.com Razib’s Substack (Unsupervised Learning): www.razibkhan.com PODCAST LINKS: Video Transcript: www.theojaffee.com/p/6-razib-khan Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1IJRtB8FP4...
#5: Quintin Pope - AI alignment, machine learning, failure modes, and reasons for optimism
มุมมอง 396ปีที่แล้ว
#5: Quintin Pope - AI alignment, machine learning, failure modes, and reasons for optimism
#4: Rohit Krishnan - Developing Genius, Investing, AI Optimism, and the Future
มุมมอง 151ปีที่แล้ว
#4: Rohit Krishnan - Developing Genius, Investing, AI Optimism, and the Future
#3: Zvi Mowshowitz - Rationality, Writing, Public Policy, and AI
มุมมอง 1.3Kปีที่แล้ว
#3: Zvi Mowshowitz - Rationality, Writing, Public Policy, and AI
#2: Carlos de la Guardia - AGI, Deutsch, Popper, knowledge, and progress
มุมมอง 206ปีที่แล้ว
#2: Carlos de la Guardia - AGI, Deutsch, Popper, knowledge, and progress
#1: Greg Fodor - AI, knowledge acceleration, aliens, & VR
มุมมอง 406ปีที่แล้ว
#1: Greg Fodor - AI, knowledge acceleration, aliens, & VR
dude ur punching above ur weight class with these guests nice - fun questions too - esp liked the personal productivity stuff one thing mayb have ur mic tracks separated between the interviewer and u so u can fully mute when ur not talking - more of a nitpick than anything else
The AI watermarking technique for text that Scott is talking about is well known and there are already simple strategies to counter it such as synonym replacement, object/noun matching and sentence negation.
110105 Nanometer scale uniformly aligned parallel diode arrays may be a practical way of absorbing ambient heat. Ambient heat is uniform on a micrometer and larger scale and non uniform on a nanometer scale. Plausibly, heat absorbtion at the non uniform scale is available as Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise that would yield, by conversion without gain or loss, an equivelent amount of electrical energy. AND Diode voltage / current characterstics can be displayed on an XY tracing oscìlloscope. Thermal electrical noise power in resistors can be displayed by time sweeps of voltage on an oscilloscope. Each such time sweep shows unique randomness. AND A simple "Special Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis" model indicated that diodes in uniform aligntment parallel would aggregate simulated partially rectified thermal electrical noise. Maximum direct current electrical power, half, is transfered from a direct current electrical source to the electrical load when the electrical resistance of the two parts is equal. Calculated matched resistance output (watts) is k (Boltźman's constant), one point three eight x 10^ minus 23, times T (temperature Kelvin) times bandwidth (0 Hz to a natural limit ~2 THz @ 290 K) times rectification halving and nanowatt power level rectification efficiency, times the number of diodes in the array. There are a billion cells of 1000 square nanometer area each per square millimeter, 100 billion per square centimeter. Creditable independent replicatable proof of concept protypes beyond improper influence are needed. Aloha Charles M Brown Kilauea, Kauai, Hawaii 96754
110105. The second law of thermodynamics may be false conventional wisdom. Let's face the wonder of full heat use. The second law of thermodynamics was developed during v8ictorian england's scientific and religious fascination with steam engines. The second law is behind modern refrigerators needing electrical energy to compress the refrigerent to force it to release as waste the heat that it has removed from the refrigerator's service interior in the cooling part of the refrigerent's circulation. The interior coldness draws in exterior heat through the cabinet insulation. There is also discarded heat from mechanical friction and electrical resistance. The net thermal output equals the electrical input with energy not being gained or lost in this refrigeration system including its forced waste. Unencumbered refrigeration by the principle that energy is conserved should produce electricity instead of consuming it. It makes more sense that refrigerators should yield electricity because energy is widely known to change form with no ultimate path of energy gain or loss being found. Therefore any form of fully recyclable energy can be cycled endlessly in any quantity. Full heat recycling, all electric, very isolated underground, undersea, or space communities would be highly survivable with self sufficient EMP resistant LED light automated vertical farms, thaw resistant frozen food storehouses, factories, dwellings, self contained elevators, safe rooms, and horizontal transports. In a flourishing civillization, small self sufficient electric or cooling devices of many kinds and styles like lamps, smartphones, hotplates, water heaters, cooler chests, fans, radios, TVs, cameras, security devices, robot test equipment, scales, transaction terminals, wall clocks, open or ciosed for business luminous signs, power hand tools, ditch diggers, pumps, and personal transports, would be available for immediate use incrementally anywhere as people as individuals or larger social groups see fit. Some equipment groups could be consolidated on local networks. If a high majority thinks our civilization should geoengineer gigatons or teratons of carbon dioxide out of our environment, instalations using devices that convert ambient heat into electricity can hypothetically be scaled up do it with a choice of comsequences including many beneficial ones. Energy sensible refrigerators that absorb heat and yield electricity would complement computers as computing consumes electricity and yields heat. Computing would be free. Chips could have energy recycling built in. A simple rectifier crystal can, iust short of a replicatable long term demonstration of a powerful prototype, almost certainly filter the random thermal motioren of electrons or discrete positiive charged voids called holes so the electric current flowing in one direction predominates. At low system voltage a filtrate of one polarity predominates only a little but there is always usable electrical power derived from the source, which is Johnson (observation) Nyquest (theory) thermal electrical noise. This net electrical filtrate can be aggregated in a group of separate diodes in consistent alignment parallel creating widely scalable electrical power. The maximum energy is converted from ambient heat to productive direct current electricity when the electrical load electrical resistance is equal to the array internal electrical resistance. Maximum calculated electrical power output (watts) is k (Boltźman's constant), one point three eight x 10^ minus 23, times T (temperature Kelvin) times bandwidth (0 Hz to a natural limit ~2 THz @ 290 K) times rectification halving and nanowatt power level rectification efficiency, times the number of diodes in the array. There are a billion cells of 1000 square nanometer area each per square millimeter, 100 billion per square centimeter. Order is imposed on the random thermal motion of electrons by the structual orderlyness of a diode array made of diodes made within a slab: P type boron doped -----‐------‐----_____-- Out 🔻🔻🔻🔻 ■■■■■■___ + Out N type phosphorous doped All the P type semiconductor anodes abut a metal conductive plane deposited on the top face of the slab with nonrectifying joins; the N type semiconductor cathodes or common cathode abuts the bottom face. As the polarity filtered electrical energy is exported, the amount of thermal energy in the group of diodes decreases. This group cooling will draw heat in from the surrounding ambient heat at a rate depending on the filtering rate and thermal resistance between the group and ambient gas, liquid, or solid warmer than absolute zero. There is always a lot of ambient heat on our planet, more on equatorial dry desert summer days and less on polar desert winter nights. Focusing on the composition of one simple diode, a near flawless crystal of silicon is modified by implanting a small amount of phosphorus (N type conductivity) on one side from a ohmic contact end to a junction where the additive is suddenly and completely changed to boron (P type conductivity) with minimal disturbance of the crystal lattice. The crystal then continues to another ohmic contact. A region of high electrical resistance forms at the junction in this type of diode when the phosphorous near the ĵunction donates electrons that are free to move elsewhere while leaving phosphorus ions held in the crystal while the boron donates holes which are similalarly free to move. The two types of mobile charges mutually clear each other away near the junction leaving little electrical conductivity. An equlibrium width of this region is settled between the phosphorus, boron, electrons, and holes. Thermal noise is beyond steady state equlibrium. Thermal noise transients, where mobile electrons move from the phosphorus added side to the boron added side ride transient extra conductivity so the forward moving electrons are preferentally filtered into the external circuit. Mobile electrons are units of electric current. They lose their thermal energy of motion and gain electromotive force, another name for voltage, as they transition between the junction and the array electrical tap. Inside the diode, heat is absorbe; outside the diode, to exactly the same extent, an attached electrical circuit is energized. The voltage of a diode array is likely to be small so many similar arrays need to be put in series to build higher voltage. Understanding diodes is one way to become convinced that Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise can be rectified and aggregated. Self assembling development teams may find many ways to accomplish this wide mission. Taxonomically there should be many ways ways to convert heat directly into electricity. A practical device may use an array of Au needles in a SiO2 matrix abutting N type GaAs. These were made in the 1970s when registration technology was poor so it was easier to fabricate arrays and select one diode than just make one diode. There are other plausible breeches of the second law of thermodynamics. Hopefully a lot of people, mostly as independent teams, will join in expanding the breech. Please share the successes or setbacks of experiemental efforts. These devices would probably become segmented commodities sold with minimal margin over supply cost. They would be manufactured by advanced automation that does not need financial incentive. Applicable best practices would be adopted. Business details would be open public knowledge. Associated people should move as negotiated and freely and honestly talk. Commerce would be a planetary scale unified conglomerate of diverse local cooperatives. There is no need of wealth extracting top commanders. We do not need often token philanthropy from the top if the wide majority of people can afford to be generous. Aloha Charles M Brown Kilauea Kauai Hawaii 96754
He’s always such an interesting guy to listen to
It's almost like the Al gore's dont want a solution that doesn't involve excessive taxation. Y so few views likes comments??
Audio is terrible
Min 10:13 - Samo advocating for p2p politics 💥 The advent of the Social Singularity (Max Borders) is the key to beat the Bloatware State (Hyper-bureaucracies)
Wow amazing podcast. Refreshing conversation because of your excellent questions. Please never stop
"it's just butthurt libertarians" lol
ayo +1 for fixed audio mahboi
The subtitles are completely out of sync.
I really appreciate Casey's consideration of re-foresting land as a complement to improved energy production. This reflects a man who has his priorities straight--not so much aimed at profit as at ecological health.
Enjoyed this very much 👍
I could listen to Scott Aaronson all day.
"All it knows how to do is predict the future." Cool. Should be fine. Very fine discussion, gentlemen.
Theo, Thank you, very much, for this podcast. I really appreciate you for bringing this conversation into my life. I appreciate the parallels between your format and Lex's, which is how I first came to know this man. It felt like finding someone in the void. Interesting, considering how much Lex talks about the deep loneliness he feels. As a programmer and child of two public school teachers, I feel extremely isolated in my world view. Hearing this man talk on that other podcast felt like such a breath of fresh air during a very trying time in my personal life. Fast forward to a year or so later, and, needing this sense of solidarity in my life again, I just tossed his name into NewPipe and found this interview. Time will tell, but the impact here seems even more profound than my first time hearing from him. Robin is a modern day Zen Master, and your interview here, a proper dharma battle.
(thank you :)
You got to many new insights form Casey that I hadn't heard before, great conversation.
Agreed. He's not pitching terraform as much, but floating ideas and sharing stories with candor.
nice bro, your next best podcast after dwarkesh!
Your questions are getting great, man 🫡
this could do with a lot. a LOT. of cutting
why am i just watching this white text on black screen for the intro? this is boring
Why open with that question?? It lead to such a boring five minutes. Why not cut that out of the video, even if you're gonna ask it?
good podcasting should be journalism, imo. can be entertainment but can also be informative. up to the decisions and values of the journalist
> didn't like hpmor > what??
wow, this is hard to watch
Cool chanel❤
<3 bc
*PromoSM* 😍
what a clown lol
This guy has nothing interesting to say or any coherent arguments, but he is so so smug. Its hard to listen to. Even theo finds his fingernails more interesting than this guys tiresome monologues...
gigachadesh patel
I'm really loving the collection of people you are able to gather. You don't need to worry about getting big (assuming you care about this).
Keep killing the pod bro. The views will come you’re too interesting for them not to
Wow I wasn’t prepared for the awful take on Palestine. I’ll try not to let it colour everything else 😮
It's amazing to me there's objective bias against men like the MIT admissions thing and we unanimously use a convenient feminist psych narrative to address it across the political spectrum.
This is a great podcast.
Go back a bit further. If I can harvest a clam at low ,tide ill never starve
paul buchheit based god
Great interview, Theo, keep it up!
1:40:00 I can't believe we hunted sugar-gazelles to extinction 😢
Can you point me to Razib’s social media or podcast? I really find him interesting.
x.com/razibkhan
Unfathomably based, Razib.
always great to here Mr. Caplan
Based as fuck Theo
Awesome podcast. How come you have so little subs / view - this is great content (minus the low frame rate).
top or bottom bunk?
Bryan is awesome. Amazing thinker. Always presents things from a perspective you never even considered, and you're left just thinking, damn, that's brilliant. But why is framerate so low on the video? :P
Sorry, technical issue with Riverside! Will try to fix for next episode
Mixed emotions after watching this. Zvi is an extremely clear-thinking individual. But it does highlight to me how crushingly depressingly rare this is. Most people who are considered smart and are influential have very fuzzy thinking in comparison, and this might literally kill us all.
The fact that this guy wants ai thats not strong enough to compete with the incumbents is proof that this dude is a "useful idiot"