Presenters: Pierce Larkin and Matt Gropp, NWS Columbia, SC
Abstract: The January 4th 2023 QLCS developed within a complex environment across eastern Georgia and South Carolina, with very poor model guidance and unusual diurnal-seasonal timing providing for a challenging forecast and warning scenario. A series of cell mergers upstream enhanced the RIJ as it progressed into our warning area in conjunction with surprisingly favorable QLCS shear and thermodynamic profiles. Despite the quickly evolving environment and poor model guidance, the three ingredient method served as a benchmark for tornado warning decisions and allowed for skillful tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings in the Columbia forecast area.