Came across your channel because of TLT recently , but it lead me to reading your story on your blog on how you reached finacial freedom. Its very cool to see that and makes me even more eager to learn about that style of investing! Great analysis as well!
Thanks for the comment, Oscar. Buying growth assets at reasonable prices does seem to work well over long periods of time. The most important thing is still cash flow. I've heard that money is like a mistress. If you don't watch her she will leave you. I found this be true. Tracking my income and expenses is still important to maintain financial security even when I'm no longer in the work force.
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog Absolutely! And seeing that you drove a older Toyota, I feel like that spoke that you valued your freedom/time more the flashy products unlike some that do chase this freedom but then live too above their means in a way
It's amusing to listen to people like you confidently spew technical analysis. It reminds me of listening to my mother with dementia talk about healing crystals and essential oils.
I have been trying to use the volatility of the longer end to my advantage with ZROZ, which is similar to TLT but moves more in either direction. Would love to see you cover ZROZ as well.
Thank you for a great video. financial education is what the world needs most right now. I studied and researched about the financial markets for a while and got stuck on the learning curve. Thanks to Loraine Souvenir program, i've grasped trading concepts, boosting my earnings through her daily signals and insights.
Having access to reliable information is crucial for us as investors to succeed both financially and in life. This is valuable, I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
The beauty of her approach is her dual focus: while she aggressively pursues profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve. This approach has enabled me to navigate the financial landscape effectively, making well-informed decisions about when to buy and sell.
Nice to see this here. A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until they’re burned by their own emotions-no offense. I remember last year, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, so I researched licensed advisors and thankfully came across Loraine. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $152k to nearly a 7-figure sum as of today..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
Well it's dropped significantly since your video was posted. Are you selling your shares? To me, it seems like now is a good time to either wait and assess or to slowly start entering positions.
Technical analysis on leveraged daily reset ETFs are more difficult due to the effects of prolonged contango. That being said I'm not really seeing a cup and handle for TMF on the daily chart. Which time frame are you looking at?
@@buggsmcgee9270 Thank you for the clarification. I see what you mean now. It looks like the handle was completed in mid September. I would have expected TMF to break out and go higher at that point. That's usually how a C&H pattern would behave. Right now it could be a false breakout as the price went lower. But there's still the possibility of it breaking out in the near future. It has to clear resistance at $64 to continue going higher.
The cuts themselves don't do much per se. It's actually changes in market sentiment that affects long term bond funds like TLT. For example if a new jobs report reveals higher than expected job growth then TLT will likely fall due to potentially higher inflation expectations.
10:45: you are confusing Average Maturity with Duration. They are different concepts and metrics. Example: VGLT has a duration of 15yr but an average maturity of 22yr.
Thanks for the correction. Someone else mentioned that as well. I got the two measurements mixed up. If we're just comparing average maturities then it's 22 years vs 26 years between the two ETFs.
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog Yes, that is Average Maturity. However, when it comes to bond or bond pools (ETFs), the important metric is Duration, as it tells you how much the ETF will move if its Yield To Maturity changes by 1%.
If the FED's lowering of interest rates causes the dollar to fall then inflation will start to increase again so, although everyone thinks the FED has begun a cycle of rate reductions, that policy could easily reverse itself and be an explanation why you're looking at a bearish wedge. (ie the FED is caught between high unemployment and increasing inflation = stagflation) just a thought. you should seriously question your assumption that rates will be going lower into next year.
That's a good point. You described the risk of buying long term treasuries now. If inflation does come back with a vengeance then TLT will get clobbered. Having a more balanced fixed income portfolio with short and medium term bonds should help cushion the blow. Jeffrey Gundlach believes inflation is on its way down and will fall below 2%. But he's not always right. I guess the question is if we do experience stagflation, will the Fed prioritize fighting high inflation or high unemployment?
Found Your video because of my ongoing TLT trade, great videos. I think you might of got something wrong VGLT and TLT have almost the exact same exposure to the to changes in interest rates 15% VGLT, 16.68%. I think the 25 years refers to the amount of time bonds are held to maturity.
I think you're right, Ryan. I just doubled checked the numbers. I must have compared two separate figures in the videos by mistake. Just looking at interest rate sensitivity I'm still surprised both have nearly identical performance despite TLT having an 11% longer duration. I wonder what the cause of that is.
Came across your channel because of TLT recently , but it lead me to reading your story on your blog on how you reached finacial freedom. Its very cool to see that and makes me even more eager to learn about that style of investing! Great analysis as well!
Thanks for the comment, Oscar. Buying growth assets at reasonable prices does seem to work well over long periods of time. The most important thing is still cash flow. I've heard that money is like a mistress. If you don't watch her she will leave you. I found this be true. Tracking my income and expenses is still important to maintain financial security even when I'm no longer in the work force.
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog Absolutely! And seeing that you drove a older Toyota, I feel like that spoke that you valued your freedom/time more the flashy products unlike some that do chase this freedom but then live too above their means in a way
It's amusing to listen to people like you confidently spew technical analysis. It reminds me of listening to my mother with dementia talk about healing crystals and essential oils.
I'm glad my video was able to entertain you. Sorry to hear about your mum's condition. I hope she's doing okay.
Fantastic analysis!
Glad you like it. Thanks for watching. :)
Very Helpful! Thanks a ton
I have been trying to use the volatility of the longer end to my advantage with ZROZ, which is similar to TLT but moves more in either direction. Would love to see you cover ZROZ as well.
Thank you for a great video. financial education is what the world needs most right now. I studied and researched about the financial markets for a while and got stuck on the learning curve. Thanks to Loraine Souvenir program, i've grasped trading concepts, boosting my earnings through her daily signals and insights.
Having access to reliable information is crucial for us as investors to succeed both financially and in life. This is valuable, I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
The beauty of her approach is her dual focus: while she aggressively pursues profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve. This approach has enabled me to navigate the financial landscape effectively, making well-informed decisions about when to buy and sell.
Nice to see this here. A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until they’re burned by their own emotions-no offense. I remember last year, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, so I researched licensed advisors and thankfully came across Loraine. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $152k to nearly a 7-figure sum as of today..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
Thank you very much!
No prob. 🙂It looks like TLT is still holding up well this week.
I noticed very large volumes. These large volumes can indicate that someone is gaining a large position?
Yes, or dumping a large position. Either way, someone is making pretty big trades.
Looking at the chart, TLT looked really good when the price was way below the 50-day EMA/MA
Yes. There were some really good entry points before.
Well it's dropped significantly since your video was posted. Are you selling your shares? To me, it seems like now is a good time to either wait and assess or to slowly start entering positions.
Yes, I will probably sell soon if the price continues to fall. Right now I'm neutral, but if it falls below $92 I would turn bearish.
I just sold off my TLT ETF early this month and made a 15% profit. I expect to buy them back again after TLT price drop below $90.
Great job on your last trade. Long bond yields have somewhat stabilized. You may have your opportunity to get back in if we see yields move higher.
I believe one day the US30Y yield will drop below 4%. At least it will hit 3.5%. So get ready to sell TLT at that price.
That would be a pretty big move for TLT. I'd certainly take some profits as well. :)
Rate cuts do skew the data volume wise short term but long term it will rise
Always keep the long term trend in mind. :)
I want to say the TLT TMF etf sort of resemble a "Cup and Handle" pattern?
Yes I see it as well hoping next week is rough on labor so I can visit the moon 😊
Technical analysis on leveraged daily reset ETFs are more difficult due to the effects of prolonged contango. That being said I'm not really seeing a cup and handle for TMF on the daily chart. Which time frame are you looking at?
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog I see a touch Feb. 24' at $62ish again Aug. 24 at $62ish and a touch late Apr.24 at $42ish thats what it looks to me.
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog Not to mention a couple of other traders on Stocktwits have mentioned the same thing
@@buggsmcgee9270 Thank you for the clarification. I see what you mean now. It looks like the handle was completed in mid September. I would have expected TMF to break out and go higher at that point. That's usually how a C&H pattern would behave. Right now it could be a false breakout as the price went lower. But there's still the possibility of it breaking out in the near future. It has to clear resistance at $64 to continue going higher.
How does rate cuts affect TLT?
The cuts themselves don't do much per se. It's actually changes in market sentiment that affects long term bond funds like TLT. For example if a new jobs report reveals higher than expected job growth then TLT will likely fall due to potentially higher inflation expectations.
10:45: you are confusing Average Maturity with Duration. They are different concepts and metrics. Example: VGLT has a duration of 15yr but an average maturity of 22yr.
Thanks for the correction. Someone else mentioned that as well. I got the two measurements mixed up. If we're just comparing average maturities then it's 22 years vs 26 years between the two ETFs.
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog Yes, that is Average Maturity. However, when it comes to bond or bond pools (ETFs), the important metric is Duration, as it tells you how much the ETF will move if its Yield To Maturity changes by 1%.
It is my understanding that long term bonds (20-30year) are sensitive to inflation rate.
That's correct. The risk with holding TLT is if we see high inflation come back and long term interest rates rise again.
Need an update now. TLT now went down to 92.
If the FED's lowering of interest rates causes the dollar to fall then inflation will start to increase again so, although everyone thinks the FED has begun a cycle of rate reductions, that policy could easily reverse itself and be an explanation why you're looking at a bearish wedge. (ie the FED is caught between high unemployment and increasing inflation = stagflation)
just a thought. you should seriously question your assumption that rates will be going lower into next year.
That's a good point. You described the risk of buying long term treasuries now. If inflation does come back with a vengeance then TLT will get clobbered. Having a more balanced fixed income portfolio with short and medium term bonds should help cushion the blow.
Jeffrey Gundlach believes inflation is on its way down and will fall below 2%. But he's not always right. I guess the question is if we do experience stagflation, will the Fed prioritize fighting high inflation or high unemployment?
@@Freedomthirtyfiveblog why cant i have these genius moments when it counts!? lol
VGLT has damn near the same duration as TLT. No free lunch.
That is not a rising wedge pattern
I agree it resembles a "Cup and Handle" 42 ish at the bottom 62ish at the top....Maybe $80 something by Xmas
@@buggsmcgee9270 Has the handle been formed yet? Maybe I'm not looking at the same chart as you. When did TLT drop to $42?
What would you call it?
Ascending triangle
😎👍
Found Your video because of my ongoing TLT trade, great videos. I think you might of got something wrong VGLT and TLT have almost the exact same exposure to the to changes in interest rates 15% VGLT, 16.68%. I think the 25 years refers to the amount of time bonds are held to maturity.
I think you're right, Ryan. I just doubled checked the numbers. I must have compared two separate figures in the videos by mistake.
Just looking at interest rate sensitivity I'm still surprised both have nearly identical performance despite TLT having an 11% longer duration. I wonder what the cause of that is.
Unfortunately, in real life, TLT ETF provides greater returns than VGLT ETF.
TUA OR TYA
China exporting Deflation as we speak 🎉🎉🎉 TLT to 130 soon
Only fools will lend at low rates.
You now your job
Davis Angela Jackson Gary Lewis Susan
your analysis is WRONG!!
Good job you made it crash