Dmitry Orlov: Peak Oil Lessons From The Soviet Union
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 ม.ค. 2011
- Dmitry Orlov, engineer and author, warns that the US's reliance on diminishing fuel supplies might be sending it down the same path the Soviet Union took before it collapsed.
In this fifth video in the series "Peak Oil and a Changing Climate" from The Nation and On The Earth Productions, Orlov, who was an eyewitness to the collapse of the Soviet Union, asserts that run-away debt and national bankruptcy will lead the US to its demise, just as it did for Moscow. As oil becomes more expensive and scarcer, the US will no longer be able to finance its importation and the economy will hit a wall, he says.
"Sixty percent of all of our transportation fuels are imported-a lot of that is on credit. A large chunk of the trade deficit is actually in transportation fuels. When those stop arriving because of our inability to borrow more money, then the economy is at a standstill," he says.
Visit www.thenation.com to learn more about "Peak Oil and a Changing Climate," and to see the other videos in the series.
Thanks Dmitry, your thoughtfulness is rare and valuable asset these days.
Dmitry's an interesting person. Shuttled back and forth between the US and USSR/Russia encompassing the fall of the USSR, got a degree in physics and worked in high-energy physics, then linguistics, and on top of all that, he's a hell of a hockey player.
I believe you are mistaken, hockley Player Dmitry has no long chin beard, St Petersgerg Collaps Dmitry has long grey beard.
Clear sighted and well articulated. Thank you. Excellent talk.
Thank you Mr. Orlov for your outstabding insights. They are extremely valuable.
Relocalization, community-building and regenerative agriculture are the keys to weathering the growing storm. We can feed humanity and heal the planet with regenerative agriculture. That is most important to understand.
I admire your courage. My experience of talking about the future, even about investments gets a negative response. I agree that some people will adapt and improvise and others won't make it. This system is very fragile. I lived in Zimbabwe and that was surrounded by stable countries - when this sucker goes down there will be no help.
Fast forward to today, it's happening right in front of us
You made wrote this comment 10 years ago .. What is your thought now ..I would be very interested to hear your thoughts ..Thank you
Great video.
Thank you, Mr. Orlov.
People, please watch and listen with an open mind, don't dismiss it just because you think our "Titanic" is unsinkable.Take care of yourself and your families.
It's going to be a bumpy ride I am afraid.
Good luck to all of you.
A great and sobering presentation, thank you. A lot more people need to watch this.
Become a producer not a consumer, learn permaculture design, buy a bike and learn to fix it, keep bees, retrofit your home for efficiency, water capture and grey water recycling, build a compost toilet, get to know your neighbours, smash your tv and buy some good books, get out of the city if you can, protest the bankster economy with direct action, keep 3months+ food storage, dump your debt and get some cash in hand, reject infinite growth ideologies. We can do this!
Interesting analogy between the 5 stages of collapse, and the 5 stages of death.
Love me some Dmitry.
Dmitry Orlov has awareness and speaks truth.
great video....
Minute 16:50, that is exactly what they did, to avoid oil price to skyrocket, they crashed the M1 ammount of Money 30% in Europe (similar in USA), so the crashed demand stabilized oil price (letting the poor countries (non Gulf States) to survive and prosper (wasting oil)
Intriguing.
great vid
This is an awesome reality check.
You are years ahead in forethought ...those at the top want to remain there as long as possible ...
I know it shouldn't matter, but nice to finally have a face to go with your phenomenal blog posts.
We may run out of breathable air before we run out of oil.
It's not how much oil there is....can you get it out of the ground.
How much refining does it need. What are the effects of leaving huge holes in the ground. What is going to fill itself with?
An oil glut is merely that there is more oil than people have money.
profound insights
an excellent talk
jim palmer Yes, its not often one can here so much nonsense in one place. How long have we been "out of oil?" is it 35 or 45 years?
Much love to Russia from Slovak Republik!
🇸🇰❤️🇷🇺
super basic- old oil was cheap and easy, the hard expensive stuff was left in the ground. The future is expensive and less productive. Canadian oil sands will perhaps double production in the next 10 years- doubling to 3 million barrels in a world demanding 90 million so even if tight oil or tarsands were 10 times better [and you just can't find enough trucks, men, money to make this happen] we are still running out.
Like Dimitry said, if you don't have character, you deserve what you get. Get yourself some Character, just do it slowly. Like Mole.ASSES.
Second that - great to put a face...and voice to your always convincing and often funny blog posts. Hope your warning is heeded.
Do you think the average price of homes, homeowners insurance, avg price of cars and the required insurance really has an intrinsic price just as gold & silver reflecting the shrinking Dollar?
Relevant as we enter 2024
@23:04 he speaks if Green Revolution Corporate Petroleum shell, Michael Just made a Movie exposee of The Green lies, HE WAS ATTACKED BY EVERYBODY! I remembered you from Morris Berman Why America Failed and Shelden Wollim ,
I actually live in a neighbouring country of Russia and I dont know where you get your figures from but if you check the wiki on average historical GDP per capita you will see that the average for at the end of Soviet times was 1/5th of USA. The average American live a way more suburban life than Russians and certainly during the Soviet time. Its very common to have a secondary home, a cabin with a garden that is tended to every spring and summer.
The average person in Soviet were much much poorer and closer to the ground like many socialist societies are, meaning "the fall" is much smaller. The average American live in unimaginable wealth and are extremely dependent on the current infrastructure, and the poor are not really growing food in their home gardens but rather live off welfare or other governmental support.
I GREW UP IN THE GHETTOS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S.A. & BEING POOR & GRINDING ON THESE STREETS IS NOTHING NEW TO ME... IM VERY TALENTED BOXING & FIGHTING.. MY WHOLE CREW IS.... GUNS & AMMO ARE NOT A PROBLEM
This is a great video. Presently, un accompanied children coming over the boarder, how bad must it be for the parents? Society in collapse?
@hurin11000 The last one I checked was in Tennessee around New River. The wells in this area are known 2 be low IP (initial pressure) and produce less than 10 barrels a day but produce much longer than higher IP wells but the grade is extremely high (low sulphuric content) clear golden. The pump jack not in motion but the tank battery ( holding tank) was half full. in a 10 mile radius as gas well thought to be dormant exploded a few years ago a was an inferno for a wk before they recapped it
Been watching current videos on this guy. It's shocking how horrifically wrong he was about peak oil/peak energy. The US now produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and is a net energy exporter. There are problems, but lack of energy simply isn't one of them.
I find Mr. Orlov's approach in preserving the environment, to follow in the footsteps of Eastern Orthodox theology: You are the cause of the crisis, so change your own behavior. Live off the land, change your own carbon footprint, instead of drafting grand strategies and using big words. I believe that Eastern Orthodoxy views every man as a sinner who must confront his own fallibility. Western Christianity, on the other hand, believes that a man can achieve salvation through constant improvement in the temporal sphere, which is what gave to the West Humanism, Renaissance, the Scientific Method, Industrial Revolution, etc. In the West, people feel that the solution lies outside of their own personal responsibility and action, in the realm of government strategies and expert consultations.
and here we are, 2024
Good Points Maybe, as the bible says, we are ultimately our own worst enemy. It is hard to see reality and easier to stay in denial. Maybe we will watch enough of this stuff to wake up and get others out of their sleepwalking.
i have no idea of saudi arabia . what i know is what is done in the canadian oil patch and i assume other oil patches elsewhere .
Putin made an astute comment collaborating this podcast: “It doesn’t matter which political party is in power for America’s foreign policy will stay the same.”
I tried commenting on this guy's blog, but wasn't allowed to join the discourse in the comment section.
@jmintube I think that really depends on how it disappears. If it dissolves and leaves remnants of extant factions or interest groups, it could become an anarchic free-for-all. If it's outmoded or made redundant through usurpation via ideas and values which offer equitable economic and scientific/technological progress, then we will have a nucleus for something more stable and sustainable. I think the most likely scenario is a combination of the two, thank lawd fo' dem interwebs.
Good news 2020 now with Russia now a major grain exporter! And Russia has grain reserves. The US has none now in 2020. We also have now the very curious DEAGLE.COM prediction of population of USA in 2025 of 100 million, down from 330 million. I wonder what Mr. Orlov would think of the this? Supposedly the drop is from economic collapse and lots of emigration.
Fuck America
I thought 12:50 was a very interesting point, in regards to secession from the Union. I have been thinking about the secession scenario for a while. Decentralization may be an attractive option in case of the collapse scenario, since the D.C. has already shown that it is either unwilling or incapable of dealing with real socio-politico-economic issues of our day. Not to mention that political collapse invalidates 'patriotic' and 'American' values as means to form shared national values.
Would that even be allowed
@danfromabove Service the interest on the debt until they fall down go boom, then ignore them. If there is a cesspool on th eproperty, be ready to dig to it to hook it back up. Put a well AS FAR AS POSSIBLE FROM IT and make sure it is a force pump- that is, it can raise water, then force it down the pipe to a storage tank higher than the toilet and sink and bath tub.
I thought the starting of his message was basic and very intresting.
Awww. All this time i was reading Passages by Dimitry in a very thick Russian accent..
@lordkoos The masses has not woken up yet, they are to busy watching new music videos and sports games. I am also Russian and I have lived in Russia during collapse it's not a pretty thing. For the majority of the people it has not even occurred yet that this collapse is upon us. I would move back to Russia in a heartbeat but I have hard time convincing my parents to move back and I will not leave them here alone.
@123BDG123 Rural Americans can be self-reliant precisely because there are relatively few of them. If the market economy collapses and there are a thousand people trying to shoot the same deer, well, you can see the problem!
Depressing - well reasoned- sadly probably true
@mphello the states are already doing this with non violent drug offenders- they shouldn't be in prisons to begin with but now with no job opportunities, it will be an interesting outcome
@Democritus477
Yeah you can get anywhere you need to go in the city, like to the store that will have no food on the shelves.
0:38 makes a lot of sense. China needs to make sure there is hope for its people.
It's Peak Shit! So long America.
Empires RISE AND FALL, ALWAYS FROM WITHIN
Facs. But sometimes external forces do play a role
I think there is a chance that Orlov is pessimist about the number of people that can survive at least in a frst time. Especially those who gets knowledge about survival and craft skills right now.
The agro industry is not the most intensive way of producing food but the more profitable because it saves labor. Small farming is able to sustain more and the agro system mainly produces waste and pollution. Besides wild resource are badly exploited, as industrial fishing shows it (waste + damage).
No way, fertilizant use started in England in 1843, with Chile phosphore (gone), we need oil-farming to produce. Just the pre-oil food 1943 was 2000 mill. people
Ths was written too right?
Lets assume you [and the optimists out there] are correct. True - there is plenty of oil and gas still in the ground- but it is either thick and sticky or very hard to get. Either way the easy oil is going quickly- production despite the best selling price has flat lined- getting the other stuff costs a lot, in money and energy. Old oil required 1 barrel of oil to get out 10- tarsands require 3. Also you just run out of people, space, equipment to get tarsands out. Basic economics.
Pay attention to the small details he talks about. Think about it.
Resource Based Economy is no solution. Simple balance and planning for tomorrow is really the only way. Any system will lead to greed and control.
But today, in our culture (Western), we are spoiled. Can anyone imagine waiting in line for bread and water then going back to your tent? Think about it...
He is right. There are many things we should forget and start moving forward with new reality. Be realistic and shut a f.... up :)
LOL Straight up
@danfromabove dont forget ammo and guns
@mphello if the world was run based on survival of the fittest - we would not be in economic collapse nor would we have reached peak oil
there is something to be said for darwinism
but it'll be even more interesting seeing how this all plays out assuming I live long enough to see it which is an iffy bet that even I wouldn't place
I'm gonna get a cattle dog, & a black 351 XB Ford Falcon GT coup with some gas tanks hanging out the back window & a big filthy (fake) blower sticking out of the bonnet so then I can go chill out with Mad Max...who's with me ;)
if i poured you a glass of milk, and you keep drinking it, eventually it would run out...if and and a friend want to drink from the same glass then it will go twice as fast. This is the most basic i can make it for you.
AAAHHHH HAAH HAH HAHA -WTF!!? that's got to be the funniest question I have ever heard anyone ask. Seriously, you should have seen my reaction to reading that, I would also like to know the answer to that now.
so by that comment the fact that S Arabia can't produce an excess anymore like they used to is what?
I don't know much about oil shales but they do produce . the tar sands are now producing better than they ever have . but... the old standard fields are producing more than they ever did with the new technology . gas is dirt cheap because they have discovered more than can be used . peak oil is a ways away yet .
im far more concerned with the money printing . if you are interested type in silver shortage and read that . the silver bugs and contrarians report things not in the mainstream
Australia be careful
Paper billionaires selling 100s of millions in stocks to cash out. SEC filings show as much.
What was life under socialism like in Poland? I've heard good things and bad things
@tekfunk the inhabitants of prisons will be some of the first to go,...avoid jail at ALL COSTS,..being in jail will take away your only key to survival. MOBILITY!!
horses!
I dont know how you define "losing the Cold War" imo, its good that the whole world lost that one or we would have a totally different set of challenges to cope with (like human extinction). If you feel the US are ready for a energy crisis then I am genuinely happy, but I am not so sure law and order will be very high priorities in "the land of trigger happy I'll shoot you in the face if you step on my lawn kind of freedom". Let the coming events prove me otherwise I hope...
What Dmitry means about losing the cold war is that Russia ended up with - after a period of turmoil - a country that's headed upwards, free or nearly free medical care and college and things like that, has stayed first in space exploration as they've been all along, etc.
Meanwhile the US is becoming a hellscape only known for 'freedom to shoot you in the face" and that's about it.
The US will try to keep its people from leaving and in fact it's pretty hard to leave, otherwise the US would have a major brain drain.
You can get an electric pushbike that goes 60mph. I wont be walking.
Sayonara, goodbye then.
And doing so rather unproductively. Many Americans are much more self-reliant than any Soviet. Those living in rural America produce their own food and rely on bartering for much of their economic success. There is a massive underground economy in the US that Orlov obviously knows nothing about. If the US dollar went to near zero, similar to what happened in Iceland, we still have economic means of production to survive. It would just be a karmic event for those who are rich "on paper"
you are sofunny, make me think of my son when he was an infant not willing to listen to my advice. you"ll learn one day
Even farmers go to the grocery store.
@SweetSweetWaldo Don't be ridiculous.
Guess all those survivalists aint so crazy after all...
All you neo-malthusians are ignoring one important fact: Oil responds to a physical price mechanism, despite all the interference and subsidies. Whereas modern "Money" is purely a debt-based fiat currency, and the root of such skewed information which causes a postponed scarcity. Most likely, it will only force a massive but slow decline with tribal and communal TAZs sprouting up over several decades as the internationally financed corporate-states collapse. Think more Rome, less USSR
And, being physical, it will run out.
In 2005, Dmitry was gripped by "peak oil" monomania, predicting that gasoline would cost $12 a gallon by the summer of 2006. The whole world was "soon" going to change drastically, but Dmitry, with his great knowledge, insight, & abilities, would be growing potatoes, pickling mushrooms, and prospering in his woodland refuge with his wife & mother, while the rest of the world collapsed. But what actually happened? I've known Dmitry since he was a teenager. He's on the Asperger's spectrum, & bloviates reflexively. It's hilarious that he calls himself an engineer. Where is his engineering resume? What has he done as an engineer over the last 30 years? It's a lot of pose and codswallop. Dmitry has small man syndrome, for which he must constantly aggrandize himself. I clearly recall Dmitry inflating the sums he was paid for a couple of articles he wrote that were published online, while his wife quietly reproached him & supplied the correct information. The only thing that's collapsed is what little credibility Dmitry ever had. UPDATE: Dmitry is now a Putin Stooge, parroting Russian State Media Propaganda. Dmitry spews contempt for Ukrainian refugees, calling them "brainwashed Nazis." He has also stated in writing: "Homosexuals make no contribution to society." Dmitry Orlov only gets worse over time. Why is The Nation featuring him?
Video and photo evidence of Nazis in Ukraine is readily available. You must be blind.
@@dandychiggins3345 What propaganda outlets are you consuming?
I've known Dmitry Orlov for a long time, & know very well the extent of his intellectual dishonesty and how full of shit he is.
How did you find your way to being a Putin Stooge, Mr Dandy?
Haven't the faintest notion what you're on about. Orlov is a pathetic crackpot & a Putin Stooge.
@AppleScab (Venturia inaequalis
) There are no materials. Orlov is a bloviating dingbat shilling for Putin.
we're fucked
I am dropping out of grad school because there is no work for teachers. Unions are being crushed by republicans and democrats alike. Just like Dimitry I am Russian and very pragmatic which explains why I don't see any reason to continue my education. Why get a masters degree if I can't get a job in that field. Colleges have become the new ponzi schemes. One can not file bankruptcy due to college loans.
I'd love to see this happen, there is a certain romantisized thought in working 100 days of year and live a laid back non polluted way of life. Of course there is going to be idiots starving and whatnot but that is good in my opinion. We need this to get rid of the bad genes in the genepool.
@mphello ya,..they will release them alright....but not in a way the prisoners will like,..ya dig mate?
yeah, I had a look at the american porn "industry" it is an interesting way of spending time together. Lets say VERY modern type of socialising. Oh wait or maybe I just missed something...but fucked... yes you can say that.
Check out the Technocracy technate ideas of an energy accounting science design society. Google Technocracy technate or the social networking site ... Technocracy revolution on FACEBOOK.
There is no connection in that information to Venus Project or Zeitgeist or the other Energy Economics groups.
Biophysical economics is the subject in a non monetary system.
It is secular and humanitarian and a viable way out of this mess we are in. Thanks.
Remember now that this is the guy who said in 2009 that the USA had begun to collapse completely and that US dollars would be worthless by 2011, and that we should all start farming potatoes in our backyards instead of going to a job because supermarkets weren't going to have food in them anymore.
And for whatever reason the rest of the world is A ok for some reason and won't have problems or be affected by the loss of 1/4 to 1/5 of the worlds economy.
He was off by a little...
Now it's hard to argue the U.S. is a de facto collapsed empire... 3rd world... Only 2 things keep it going... Denial and faith in more money printing whose merits are really starting to be questioned and outright challenged as we speak
.....
Have you been to a super market lately? They're pretty constantly out of a lot of stuff these days. I regret not starting my potato garden sooner.
@@sonofdamocles Ok dood. Supply chain issues and a societal collapse are not the same thing. Also, I guarantee you, if society collapses, either you know the right people, or the important groups will take your potatos and kill you if you resist anyway, possibly even use you for slave labor either way.
@@ssssaa2 @Josh Green That's a pretty Hollywood inspired take on social collapse, but OK Bro. If you don't see the cascading failures happening now then I don't have much to say to help you.
@@sonofdamocles My point is that if you think there is going to be a collapse, the only thing that matters is making sure you are on the side that has power afterwards. Everyone who isn't will basically be wherever said people want them to be. It is a lot more important than growing food in your backyard for whoever ends up taking power to confiscate if you aren't on their side. In particular I think people who expect to survive on their own are morons. Independence will be completely nonexistant after any sort of societal collapse. The human world and your place in it will become exponentially more important than it is today.
@ljrow49 Abiotic? Show your evidence for this.
@danfromabove If everyone did what you're saying, most of the human race would starve. Non-industrial farming cannot feed most of the world. Everyone living in small communities would also be terrible - isolation breeds ignorance.
Wot wold the Arabs do?
Will someone remind these people and that Russian that the Russian government has successfully drilled 310 abiotic oil wells and gas wells and used the same Abiotic Oil Technology in North Vietnam, using abiotic oil and gas geological scientific studies and techniques to locate abiotic oil and gas in places where everybody say's there's no oil when in fact there is oil? That's why Russia became an oil exporter exceeding Saudi Arabia.
Wrong.
@@shiptj01 Are you quite do sure? Have you travelled to Russia? Have you seen our abiotic oil and gas wells? Have you traveled to Vietnam and check out their abiotic White Tiger Oil and Gas Fields? Stop lying to us Russians for we Russians who are in the know knows what we are saying for we participated in their drilling!
I appreciate Orlov's candidness and the crap is going to hit the fan but much of what he says is nonsense. He talks in abstractions without quantifying his claims. That is what soothsayers do. Quantify how Soviets were more prepared than Americans? We have a reasonably productive society. They did not. If if money would disappear, we could easily restart our productive assets. They couldn't. Soviets were captives to and often completely reliant on the state. He seems to be lifting Amalrik's work
Wrong.
Collapse
I agree with 64jcl, you dont know what you are talking about
the soviet union collapsed because of economic reasons not because of peak oil . and that's the reason the states will collapse also . in 08 when the world started using slightly less oil the price dropped extremely . with the new technology there is more and more oil available also gas .
however ther treat lies in money printing in 32 countries . that will bring huge inflation ,possibly world wide . buy silver and stock up on bulk,cheap food and read about the silver shortage .especially sbss
talking loud not saying much
@biohax I risked my life in Iraq to get a free education and you are complaining about interest rates. I was a slave for four years and you are an Indentured servant now. Apparently the return on your investment is not paying off that well perhaps you should of attended a State School or a community college. Student loan forgiveness for teachers is no longer available in my state because we are about to lay off 20,000 teachers.
Well I'm glad we have that xtra millennium of oil that the environmentalist won't let us touch cuz when the sh i t hits the fan they will be the first casualties.
Wrong.
personally i think the oil industry iis alive and well .but lets say its not . whats your point? at the moment oil is still being discovered in huge ways and developement takes years. the oil sands are so unbelievably huge they cannot be comprehended by city folk and will be develop-able for the next hundred years .with the new technology the oil companies have probably increased the world gas reserves by ten time and gas is cheaper than ever .
yes things are finite but gradually not imediately
Poor fella. Looks like he’s got a lot on his mind…
Unlike you?
@@annebritraaen2237 the comment wasn’t intended to be disparaging. I genuinely mean it. He looks stressed.