The #1 Rookie Draft Strategy In Dynasty
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ก.ย. 2024
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I think this is the best video I have seen for rookie draft season
Ok guys, I disagree :-) You are comparing APD with fantasy performance, but you also need to take into account how strong a draft class is. Odunze is top WR prospect and would probably be the best WR in most draft classes, so I am still excited
True - this is a very strong class. Surely the 7 year sample size covered some very strong classes too though, and this is where the data ended up.
Odunze is a beast. Totally agree. Thanks for watching.
Completely agree with you. The data is nice to have, but it’s just data. It’s also why they said in the video if you really like the guy at adp, you take them. I think it’s valuable to acknowledge though that this year is an outlier to this data though.
So basically, ignore ADP because the community hypes up to many of the wrong players.
Last year for example. I took C.J Stroud 2.01 and Reed 3.4 in single QB full ppr league
More context
Richardson went 1.7 and Young went 1.11
There are 7 elite guys this year. I will take my chances with Bowers unless something awful happens in the draft. I appreciate the evidence and explanation but I’m going with my gut on this one. I could see trading down within the top 7 but I’m not getting away from those top guys.
Best Dynasty video I've ever seen. Shoutout Chip and the Domain crew!
80 degree weather and a Domain upload?
I’ll drink to that 🍻
In a SF league I just traded the 1.03 and 3.01 for Anthony Richardson. Thought of the move by watching y’all’s videos. Thanks for the content.
Thank you Chip!
I just traded in 1QB, my 1.01 for the 1.04. Picked up Garrett Wilson and the 2.01 in the process. 🙏
Wilson 2.1 and BTJ for Harrison. Good value but it depends on Wilson honestly I think I stick to Harrison but can’t fault you for taking Wilson. I think his value drops this year if he doesn’t breakout
Way to go Chip!!!
I’ve also traded back from the 1.09 to the 2.02 and Marquise Brown just a few days ago. This class is so stacked i knew the 2.02 would have value there.
Traded down from the 1.02 for the 1.04 and Pickens. Was pretty happy to get that deal
Thanks chip
DRAFT IS TOMORROW BOYS LEFTS F’N GOOOOO!!!!!
Feeling ecstatic about having 1.06, 2.01 and 2.02!!!
This is great to hear. I need RBs in a start 9 SF contending roster, and traded away the 2.08 + 4.04 for Chuba Hubbard and the 3.04. Based on this data seems like I didn’t lose much on the move back and picked up a potential starting RB
Thank you, Chip for the data and your shiny teeth that sparkle just like the stars in space
Nathan would never get this reference but I do because I’m awesome
@@thedynastydomain truly the man of the people and a man of culture
Dang y'all are so smart - look at that data and your ability to articulate it! 🔥 We love to see it! I'm so proud of you guys and your team. 10k by May!!!! THANK YOU CHIP!
Thanks Chip! You a dawg
great info as usual gents, cheers
Appreciate you!
Loved this video, glad to be a part of the community now too! Still new to dynasty so all this data to back it up is great!
Great video fellas!
Thanks Chip
Subscribed/Liked. Keep up the good work.
Appreciate it man.
Way to go Chip!
I know you guys are basing this on SuperFlex, but this logic doesn't apply to the WRs this year in start 1qb leagues, because the top 3 are going to be MHjr, Nabers, and Odunze. At worst Odunze 1.4 in TE prem. So if it's a WR you want, having the 1.05-1-12 you are significantly downgrading at WR.
Yes. True, this is superflex only. 1QB you’re correct.
pin this.
I'm liking the 3rd
Great research 👏 👌
Good data - I would say this draft class seems to have more elite talent at WR/QB than the last 2 years. Pick 1.08-1.10 this year is likely the top RB/Week 1 starting QB. Players going at 1.10-1.12 this year would be 1.06-1.08 in the last few years
Down graded off the 1.02 to the 1.04 and got Kupp and a 4th.
I’ve been trying to get off 1.06 to 1.02 or 1.03. In a 10 team league offered 1.06, 2.07 and 2025 3rd and neither will budge.
@@boldtaa I wouldn’t accept that either to be honest… probably gonna cost ur pick and late 1st this year or next. Wouldn’t do it though if your team is bad and gonna get a good pick next year. If you can’t would cost ur pick and a decent player instead
@@boldtaa I wouldn't have taken it either. To move up that much. I feel like another late first needs to be added. Ten team league not sure how deep teams are.
Nice work! Good advice guys!!
This is all very interesting. I would like to see the raw data rather than what is being extrapolated. With that said, in my home dynasty league- MHJ was drafted first overall. So I drafted Caleb Williams, and then consequently Malik Nabers third overall as opposed to Jayden Daniels.
And then seventh overall, I draft Rome Odunze. Later I trade Romeo Doubs and two future seconds (not my teams) for Jj McCarthy, a day before his injury
Great work guys!
so trading the 1.09 to get the 2.03, 2.05 AND 2.09 was even better than I thought... Love to see this data. (guy was desperate for a first round pick)
That’s fairly good value and depending on what position you take, hit rate is the same. Love it
The 1.07 in this class is the 1.04-1.05 in a normal class. JSN went where, the 1.06 last year? One good year of production (albeit young with high college target comp) with an objectively bad landing spot. QJ went high despite looking like shit. You said this is the best offensive class you’ve ever seen just the other day. The WR analysis particularly does not apply to this draft class
Btw I know I refute y’all often but I fw the general analysis
Agree
Wow is this good intel! Thanks
Thank you chip!
Atta boy chip!
DROP A LIKE EVERYBODY 🔥🔥
thanks, just took audric estime 1.01 so he can be a cornerstone elite asset
Avery probably the type to bring coupons to Toys R Us as a kid
did not I paid full retail price for my toys
If I can snag the RB 1 at 1.12 I’m doing that. Wtf are y’all on about. Crazy value right there
Great Vid!!!! So excited for my first Rookie draft 💪 just traded My M.Brown, Downs, 25 2nd for Kirk, 24 2.01 (1QB,10teamppr) any thoughts?
Nice trade!
Christian Kirk or Kirk Cousins? I guess depends on how the 25 2nd shakes out too. In a 1 QB, I'd think Cousins (if that's who you meant) would be a back up as probably every team already has some type of stud QB in a 10 teamer as well. Should be able to get a real good player at the 2.01. I think you probably did ok in this trade. How are your other WR's if you were able to ship Brown and Downs, who I view as kind of lower WR2's, so no huge loss.
Do you think it's because people take best available or because most people draft for need. It's obviously one of those 2 reasons, I think it's the best available, scenario, it's one of the the reasons why I love the league I'm in, I know how most of them draft.
People most draft for need
What is the sample size of WRs taken in the first 4 picks?
7 year period, so it’s a good amount. I can check exact numbers for you, it’s well over 10-12.
People were taking Bryce Young over C J Stroud, just sayin'
So if I have the 1.01 & 1.03 & 1.06 in SF I’m suppose to smash Caleb daniels and McCarthy (likely scenario due to league)????
How do I not consider marv daniels maye or even marv nabers maye????
My QBs are Jackson, Burrow, and Young. If Williams falls to me at 1.02, do I trade Burrow for 1.06 and 1.08?
I have the option to trade Devante Adams’s and Chubb for the 2.02, 2.08 and Bryce young. How we feeling about Young? Worth giving up those two for him?
Young side in SF
1.03 for 1.07, 25 late first, and 2.07 thoughts? Single qb league
1.03 side
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Dynasty league. Solid team except QB. Fields only QB. I have the 1.7 and was just offered Tua for the 1.7. Should I take Tua or keep the 1.7 and draft a QB? I figure Williams and Daniels will be gone at 1.7.
Better stage name for a rapper, Nate Dogg or Schmidt Ice?
How about “bull schmidt”
I have the 1.09 and 2.04/05. One guy has the 2.01-03 should I offer the 1.09+25 3rd for 2.01/02?
Yes! Wait till post-draft
if you have anthony richardson on dynasty 16 team league. i have the 6th pick this year. also have lamar jackson. QB is crucial in this league 6 pts. for passing and the depth is very small with 16 teams. do you trade richardson away for some draft picks and go get top QB in this years draft class.? is it worth it?
No way, stick with your guys
How do these odds change for 10 Team leagues?
Just consider the 2.02 to be the 1.12!
As somebody holding 2.01 and 3.01 in a rebuild… what would you recommend doing?
And also somebody who is holding Quentin Johnston, are you selling for any mid to late 2nd?
Stick and pick!
Should I trade 1.01 for 1.06 and Devonta smith?
Yes
For every CJ Stroud there are 10 Zach Wilson, Mitchell Trubisky, etc. etc. The list is large.
Actually the data suggests otherwise...
@@thedynastydomain I've seen a lot of what ends up being garbage at QB taken in the first round in SuperFlex leagues.
There is no argument to be made to take Marvin Harrison Jr 1.01 in SuperFlex. I’ve seen every snap of his at Ohio State. He did not beat Michigan, did not win a big ten championship, has no real highlight, and isn’t in the top ten most receiving yards for a single game. I can probably think of ten Ohio State receivers ranked ahead of him who can check all of those boxes whereas Marvin checks none of them.
I really hope my league mates don’t watch this channel 😂
I’m about to send some trades after this smash.
Great content! I’m new to dynasty, I have a draft coming up in a 12 team, 1 QB, start 10. I’m in a rebuild and I ended up with the 1.04 and 1.05.
Does it make more sense to draft both picks or draft best player available at 1.04 and sell the 1.05?
Could be either! I’d say you’re drafting at 1.04 and then heavily shopping 1.05.
Just to confirm... this is superflex right?
Yes.
Is this data 1qb or SF?
SF
“If you were good enough to evaluate talent you’d work for the NFL”. I disagree but only because I’m convinced that random TH-cam analysts and fantasy gamers are already better than the nfl at scouting talent and projecting the best ways to utilize players. Even though millions of dollars are spent in nfl board rooms that doesn’t mean anything except that nfl teams spent millions of dollars to defer to “yep he’s big, fast, and strong”. The sheer volume of nepotism and cronyism and fake it till you make it” in the nfl is rampant and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if all the teams were farming TH-cam for actual real analysis
You give us too much credit!
My issue is that I don’t want to spend a 1.01 on a QB if I already have 2 QBs who are being drafted in the first round of startups (Herbert and ARich). I recognize that taking Caleb would be smart, but why would I take a guy knowing I would have to sit an elite QB option every week
Good problem to have for sure!! Trade back if you can.
@@thedynastydomain if I can guarantee the guy with the 1.02 would draft Caleb ahead of MHJ I would
@@chaseburrows907 even if you can't guarantee it... you'd end up with the same player (Caleb) + whatever you got for trading back. And you could do it again for the #3 of you still don't want Caleb.
So glad I drafted qb adp and got Bryce Young…
yes I forgot we advertised the 100% hit rate of QBs in the video
Jonathon Brooks is better than Tre benson
The data set just isn’t big enough to draw any conclusion at all.
6 years of data isn't enough? 🤔
@@thedynastydomain no
This guy has no life.
Thank you, Chip!
Great job guys!
Thanks a ton!
You guys are my go to for dynasty info! I know you’ll guide me to a title in no time!
Appreciate it! Win that money baby
Thank you Chip!!!
Thank you,Chip!
Chip is Him
Thank you Chip ur the bastard GOAT beast
'preciate you guys! And Chip 😅 love the unique videos and data you guys put out to us mediocre fantasy football players
Incredible value in this video, really great work thank you!!
Thanks so much!
Last year I got Tyjae Spears at 3.02 and flipped him (plus a 3rd) in January for a projected late 2025 1st
Really good value.
Thank you Chip!
1st in your hearts, and 1st in the comments. @waffle 🤪
on the top-3 WRs: I dont disagree at all with the process of if you can trade back from MHJ or Nabers and get Odunze plus extra, you should do that. where I disagree is I think some prospects just aren't worth applying historical data to because of how rare those types of prospects are, and I think MHJ and Nabers (and Odunze) all have the talent to be significant outliers. it's a great class to trade back in if you're hard rebuilding, but if you're a contender that got 1.04/5 in a trade or something I think it's better to swing for the single player with top-5 upside at the position.
btw love the content as always boys, best dynasty channel on youtube.
Appreciate you!
@@thedynastydomain no u
One of the most useful rookie draft videos ever 🔥 Thanks guys!
Let’s go!
Amazing content as always, thanks for all the hard work D.D Team.... Cant wait to whoop you two next season in the Fundy League!
Lol appreciate you!
Fantastic info guys!!! Love this video.
Thanks a ton!
Thanks chip
Thank you Chip!
S/O Chip dawg
Thanks Chip!!!
ty chip (-:
Isn’t all of this data viable ONLY IF you make chalky, more predictable picks? By that, I mean you’re taking most of the skill position players with Round 1 Draft Capital before you get into the 2nd Round players, then into the 3rd Round, etc.
What if, in the past, your league mates made a bad decision and took Zach Evans before Jayden Reed, Roschon Johnson, and Sam LaPorta were taken? What if Amon-Ra was taken before Elijah Moore and Nico Collins?
Or are you just talking about the value of the pick itself without assigning any specific player to it?
Is this based off a 12 or 10 team league when referring to 1.7-2.3? Big difference in picks. Someone with the 2.3 in a 10 team league would be even more valuable than a 12
The only draft vid I need great work
Thank you!
Chip=MVP
so what does consensus and look like and where can I find it ? anyone know
So I should trade away the chance at Bowers for two the 2.01 and 2.05? Or if Bowers ADP is 1.07 in superflex and he is sitting there take him?I do like the video and it premise.
Stay at the 1.07
Refreshing to see a video about fantasy football that uses deeper analytics to go beyond the usual speculation. Good point at the end about data being objective. It's up to us to determine how significant the data is and what it's really telling us to do, but the numbers don't lie. Earned my sub and a like, gentleman. Keep up the good work.
Appreciate you!
I think you guys failed statistics
So should I move back from 1.05 to 1.09+ 2.02 and 2.03? 12 team PPR sf
Yes!