I've been hooked on this for a few weeks now as I'm a complete beginner. (dabbled awhile back briefly) Some of it's definitely frustrating as its clearly a steep learning curve between broker platforms, indicators, lot sizes, P&L %'s, JPY pairs (WTF), ATR, etc., but... does anyone else get super excited when they find an indicator combination that does amazing in their backtesting! (70% winrate on my first two pairs just under 2 years each) That alone is a huge motivation to keep going!! And VP your cutthroat no nonsense no ads approach is excellent, thank you keep it up!
@@willspeakman2461 would you tell me the indicator you found 85% useful? I have a list too, I am backtesting for 6 months. still i have ocean of source for indicators I would finish them first before going to forward testing.
Doing the back testing your way reaps unexpected good benefits: getting myself out of the way, eliminates the misconceptions about trading, cultivating the discipline and the resolve to follow the confirmation indicator. Heartfelt thanks, VP
Hey VP, I'm a low level prop trader for the Apiary fund. I found your channel because a couple of the traders at Apiary were discussing it online. So far your stuff is enjoyable and you don't hold back. It's difficult to abandon some of what I've been taught because I've had a little success, but I'm enjoying the free education and one of my personal mottos has always been to never. stop. learning. Indicator hunting is hard! Thanks again for your time and commitment, sir.
I literally watching from the very beginning video of this channel to this one for 2 days straight. And it really opened my eyes on how i see forex before. Im a new trader, and im trading for about 3 months already with a demo account using those strategy of typical trader out there. And this channel thought me that the way i trade was wrong. And I think i really need to reset and change how i trade before. Im glad that i found this channel, and thank you VP for making this videos.
First off, thank you for your podcast and channel. I had first started learning forex from a company that taught traders how to trade based off of visual recognition of price patterns using Fibonacci ratios to define the pattern. Some people had success with it, but I couldn't justify spending hundreds of dollars a month to learn a method that didn't sit right with me. I always believed that the brain will see what it wants to see so visual pattern recognition is inherently flawed as a trading method. A Twitter follower pointed me here and I binged nearly every podcast episode over the last week, and I am currently backtesting my first confirmation indicator on its default settings. This method just feels so much better for me than looking at the charts and hoping I am seeing what is really there and not just what I want to see. All your videos have been super helpful in helping me get started, especially the trend indicators, risk structure, and backtesting videos. I am very excited for what 2019 brings after spending a year and a half trying to learn a method that I never really believed in and getting no where with it.
I found out that, the more often I back test and forward test my algorithm, the more I get to know what they each are telling me and the more I trust them. Because at the end of the day, technical analysis, discipline and rules that I follow to the T, will rule over my "oh but that's a 3 pattern thingy, the S/Rs are coming!!" hence putting my feelings out off the equation. And even after a loss(es), I can still sleep like a baby at night and ready to start planning (inspired by your routine) for the next trade. I'm pretty much of an emotional guy, but when my "team of analysts" say "go git it!" i don't think twice. Yes, I might be new, and i have blown accounts too (well not as much as you thou) since 2012, but after 7 years, you made me understand now when you said that you don't put your feelings when it time to execute an order.Yup, I'm at that state now. VP, you are a God sent.Peace, blessings and prosperity to you. Thank you from Jakarta, Indonesia. And Marco, where ever you are can just go to hell. (vid reference) PS: Your Renko + SSL vid has inspired me to do more research on them, and now fits perfectly with my algorithm.
Newbie: ZERO (bad) habits... Great Podcast! This one is very helpful as I'm researching and setting up my system. No trading yet as I'm also learning to navigate through the MT4 Platform. I really like how you are slowly explaining things. Just started about a 2 weeks ago. From Montana
Damn VP, I’ve been at this for a solid year in February. and have been approaching trading quite furiously and maddeningly hours on end from the start. Books, bots, flying crabby pattern scanners; anything that I could or can get my grubby, little trading-obsessed hands on (especially, the carnival ride on the internet),l. But you brother, you’re a tsunamic trading phenomenon. Ive done some work towards trading about a decade ago, or so, for a year and a half, but never made any real solid ground. Not such as the ground I’ve made listening to you, my friend. I’ve binged A LOT (multiple times on the same videos and podcasts), but I must drop you a line NOW and say: this one EPISODE... you f@cking blew me away. Unbelievable. Thank you so much, VP. That last bit of your podcast, I truly appreciate your words. I’m THAT doer you speak of, and it is my hope to contact you in the future with my story of success. I don’t know who are or where the hell you came from, but let me tell you VP, and I mean this with total conviction... YOU’RE A GENUINE ANOMALY. Keep it up brotha... PEACE
This is great! I don’t use indicators for anything more then decorations for my charts. Bunch of maybes and ifs. I just don’t trust them enough to make a trading decision. Thought they were all crap, more or less. I am very open mined though and believe you. I spent all weekend, last weekend testing these things wrong. Now I know. So, back to the drawing bored. Success is a formula, and believe you have it figured out. Thank you VP.
This is where the backbreaking work starts, sometimes feel like reverting to easy old trend lines and just using the zig zag indicator, oh well I'm this far guess there's no going back
Thanks VP! Admittedly I went straight to forward testing on demo because it seemed cool. Recently did a backtest just on the SSL over 3 years data and oh man did I learn a thing or two! It took forever because I was being meticulous in data entry. I even kept a log of "maximum potential scale out" movements on every trade and I was absolutely floored by the result. I double checked the numbers as I didn't believe it at first, but scaling out is definitely where it's at. It was professor VP, in the Library, with the Candlestick :D ^^^ why have I not thought of this brilliant line before :). Anyway, Thanks VP!
Good day VP. I have a friend and over the years, we let each other know about things that could enhance our lives for the better. He shared ep.0 and the rest is history. I listen and go through babypips as a reminder and the added unknown knowledge. Instant fan and do not mind taking the time, focus, or the energy to become a full time day trader. I thank my friend and you for my new journey.
Bro I've been researching forex for the last 5 to 10 years blew out my account 3 times. When i say no bs you have the tightest presentation on forex that I've snacked on. This is cooked crack.. I'm Diggz it bro. When i hone in I feel obligated to throw you a bone. Your the ish.. keep it up Real recognize Real...🤘
Hey VP, you probably should add this topic into the MUST READ after the core concepts and etc. I spent endless hours working with your main structure, backtesting indicators as an algorithms set within your main structure. It was an absolute headache testing 5-6 indicators together before knowing the potential of each indicator itself. I spent weeks pondering what went wrong. Then I decided to rerun your podcasts from ep1 to see if there were any hidden gems I could have missed. This episode is what I really need. None of the indicators I was using got me results, all between 60- 70% win percentage. I could have ditch them earlier should I test them individually first rather than as a set of algorithms. Anyway, indicators with 60-70% win percentage still got me 3:1 win ratio in terms of total pips when they work together. I wonder what could be the outcome for indicators with 80% win percentage.
VeePee....you are dope man....everything about the podcast, youtube, blog etc is on point...how you even deliver these things is killing and chilling. Been following you like a few weeks now and surprisinly, i am seeing changes already in my demo algorithm. i am not overwhelmed yet cos i know there is still more grounds to cover. (searched for some, eliminated some but wanna recall them now to back test after reading this before finally discarding the failures) God bless you man real good. Glad i stumbled on you.
by the way guys, i'm looking out for a professional trader that would help me trade in my account and i can pay for his services... i heard their are offers like that.
Remember, it's possible your first back trades are losers. I ran into a string of 6 losses right off the bat but ended up being a consistent winner. Persistence. Thanks, VP. Teach 'em to fish and you've fed them for life.
Thanks for the great podcast and sharing your wealth of knowledge as a professional trader. Always great information and definitely not the conventional "wisdom". One thing that I always fail to comprehend. VP is giving out his professional opinion for FREE and his perspective of what you need to do to win in this game. 17000 people have watched the video and only 796 have bothered hitting LIKE (less than 5%). Wow guys this man (right or wrong) (I believe right) has given you his time, his knowledge and over 10 years of experience in the markets to help you out FOR FREE. Just for that the least you can do is hit like button. As for the 9 people that hit dislike, I guess all I can say its a perfect reflection of the world we live in. Maybe you should go and pay $7K for a trading course so you can learn nothing and blow a few accounts. Then come back to this channel expand your paradigm and maybe just maybe you can learn how to be apart of the 1%. Thank you VP for all your excellent work and the amazing material you share with us every week. (Yes, big LIKE from me)!!!!
Tested my second indicator it sure does take a heck alot of time starting out(took me around 2 hours) but once you get used to it you can do it far quicker. SMI indicator 52% winrate
Thanks VP for the videos and podcast. Found you a few days ago on TH-cam and subscribe straightaway. Just can't get enough of your valuable information. Appreciate your no nonsense approach.
You mention in the backtesting blog to disregard a trade when a signal changes before it can be a win or loss. Do you move on to the signal that interrupted it or to the next one that has a clear win or loss result? Also, if that happens in a live session with a signal saying go long and a few days later go short without reaching the SL or TP, do you find it best to disregard that new opposing signal and just let it get stopped out or pull out immediately (given other indicators agree)?
If you're in the trade after the opposite signal has come up, you've been in the trade too long. You can use this signal as your exit indicator if you like, or try to find something that gets you out sooner.
@@NoNonsenseForex Thanks, makes sense. I've been waiting for the trade to reach the ATR or ATR*1.5, so when a new signal appears before those points, it still comes out as either a loss or win of a few pips (some come close so it's more than a few) so I'm deciding whether to count those towards the win/loss record or throw them out. Just want to make sure my data is as accurate as possible.
Hi VP, I rarely comment on videos. I am almost done with your regular series and catching up on the podcasts. I've been doing forex for about 2 years on and off with on and off success and I had yet to stumble across anything that ever seemed to make sense until I came to you. Thank you so much!
I am not sure if i missed some things, but has vp ever mentioned anything about automatic backtesting using MQL4 (metatrader 4 built-in programming language for trading robots )? or did he ever mention/eleborate on why manual backtesting is superior?
Hey VP, I know this video is old but i'm in the backtesting phase for my C1 and the "chalk it up as nothing" is a bit confusing. I've consumed all the materials for confirmation and backtesting, asked in the discord and even then there's a split between "every time C1 flips you exit and count it as a win or loss depending on where you exit as that's what you would do in the forward tests ( since C1 flip is an exit condition )" and "I just chalk the signal flips as nothing" and so if the discord is split between it it leaves some confusion. The only thing here is that if you chalk up as nothing then the fast indicators will dominate the slower ones and conversely if you count each flip as a win/loss then the slower indicators dominate the faster ones. Like hell with this one trend indicator on the EURUSD for example, it had 82% winrate over 45 trades ( and this was with a decently high period ) with a little over half chalked up as nothing which doesn't seem really realistic you know? I don't know if i'm overthinking this but i want to do this right to build a good foundation for myself when i put in those long nights in so if you could clarify a bit more on that then it would be appreciated ( like how low of a period is too low or whatever ).
Thanks so much VP the algo is working so far still got a lot of testing to do but each trade has worked in the last few weeks except when I got in the way
@@NoNonsenseForex I believe he's referring to overfitting your model (I'm assuming you know what that means, but for others...) where your model fits the past input data so well that the model is not flexible enough to deal with new data in the desired way.
You cannot avoid fitting, it is either implicir (you fit it), the computer fits it (optimization), or your knowledge does (tacit fitting), always do "Roboust" optimization when letting the computer (use out of sample testing), also avoid "grid" optimization, do not more than 20 iterations for any parameter (that is 5% of the range), study what happens "around" the parameter iterations, pick the "median" parameters (study a paper on "parameter permutation").
The important thing is to find out if the in-sample results are just "luck" by comparing them to the out-sample (you can use linear regression of returns), you have to find something with actual predictive value (the edge), anything else is rubbish and will get horizontal or downwards reggressions in the out-sample.
Hey! I am loving the content and just starting to dig deep, I am completely new! I think this content if saving me from crazy mistakes!!! Just starting some backtesting and super excited. I am just wondering where on the candle is the best place to measure from? On the close or open of the candle? Just wanted to double before I get it wrong!!
This is going to be my 3rd attempt at back testing. 2 months lost but i had to start somewhere. I think i really get most of the aspects and pitfalls of back testing now. I even tested different periods of ATR and divisions of the ATR figure. The only thing concerning me is the RRR. I prefer 1:1 just because it makes it easy to test. Il probably test the RRR after i find some good indicators to use. The problem i have now is having to many spread sheets.
thanks VP for the great education. I am a new NNFX adopter here. question about finding out which happens first: hitting 1xATR or 1.5xATR on the opposite direction. If I stay on daily chart and the high/low prices engulf 1xATR and -1.5XATR, how do I know which one was hit first? or I should use 1-minute chart to help me to find out more granular price? thanks!
Just joined NNFX recently and I have the same question. Still don’t get it after reading VP’s reply. Can someone kindly elaborate how to set the take profit levels in advance when doing backtesting?
Mark as you back test more and more this will continue to happen, you get places on the charts where you are just not sure. For me I see two options 1. Put entry/start point in the middle of the candle or 2. Put entry/start point at the begging of the next candle. To try and keep your back testing as accurate as possible pic just one of the two options and use it each time you are not sure. When I am not sure I always start in the middle of the candle for all my back testing. Best of luck/skill to you.
If I understand correctly, VP trades in the last 15 minutes of the close of the candle, so I would take the entry point as the close of the candle you get the signal
I came across a video when I was looking for info on the Macd. I still use it but i have tweaked the settings after much testing and it works better for me I am also trying another line cross indicator and seeing if it works better...
Im finding the MT4 platform pretty good overall for charting, but not that great for entering trades - the stop loss is a pain, you need to calculate the money management manually (although some indicators out there overlay it on the screen but clutter things up) and its really easy to accidentally move your trade with the wrong mouse click. From the videos, I noticed VP uses Oanda - which helps with trade management. What do people think?
After watching you, every Forex add that starts off saying anything along the lines of "do you want to make 10k a week..." I skip and say VP would be proud
I have a question, I hope you will notice me. I read this on your blog "You will find times where your indicator gave you a signal to go the other way before price had the chance to become a win or a loss. Just chalk this up as nothing, and move on." So, i don't need to record the false(whipsaw/choppy) signals that my indicator gave me? even though its obvious a loss, as long as it didn't hit the 2x ATR, I dont need to record it? I just want to clarify. pls help me. Thankyou.
hey VP thanks for all the info; i've downloaded like 250 confirmation indicators and backtested 70 ish, so far i have found 6 really good ones (80% winrate and above) do you think i should move on to other stuff and keep backtesting on the low or should i finish all of em first. Love from morocco
I love the NNFX way and I'm figuring out pieces for my algorithm how long should I backtest the indicators in H1 time frame? For daily tf Ive been backtesting the indicators for atleast 2 years.
I came back to this video because I reckoned this would be the best place to ask this question. So I’ve recently bought this backtesting EA to save time with backtesting indicators. It can even backtest entire algo’s. Members of the Discord will know which EA I’m talking about. I’ts awesome and saves a lot of time compared to manuel backtesting. However: the optimization option is a curse upon itself, because it promotes over-optimizing. Many “simple” indicators have only 1 input, like the Aroon U&D. But a more advanced indicator like the BH-Ergodic or ASH have over 6-7 inputs. You can make up to 2-3M different combinations just with these settings alone! Not to mention the combinations combined with baselines, volume-indicators, Money Management, ATR settings, ect. Surely I’m over complicating things when I try to backtest every possible combination. So how to avoid? How to determine in advance which of the input settings you want to test and when do you decide the ROI of the indicator is worthy enough to add C2,V, and B indicators? At some point I have to accept the fact that there might have been a better combination of settings and just go with what I have, right? VP might not answer this question anymore, but thats fine: I value everyones input just as much! Tnx
if the signal that im currently testing with the atr is interrupted by another signal that just as appeared, in your blog you said that we just need to chalk up this as nothing and move on but which signal i have to chalk as nothing, the actual signal or ignore the new one and continue with the first one?
Stuggling to identify when exactly I would have entered a trade (what is my starting point in measuring the pips vs ATR and SL). For example, if you look at the go short signal on 6/12/19 Identify Trend ind where the blue turned to red at about 1.1314 and the ATR was about ~59, that candle's high for the day was about 30 pips above the go short signal. So in a case like this I'm trying to figure out when exactly I would have entered this trade? Would it have been before this candle reached it's high for that day? Do I take the trade at the next candle?
Brian as you back test more and more this will continue to happen, you get places on the charts where you are just not sure. For me I see two options 1. Put entry/start point in the middle of the candle or 2. Put entry/start point at the begging of the next candle. To try and keep your back testing as accurate as possible pic just one of the two options and use it each time you are not sure. When I am not sure I always start in the middle of the candle for all my back testing. Best of luck/skill to you.
Hi Patrick! How and where can one download good quality data for backtesting? There is a limit of data provided in brokers. Why do they do this? Is data so important?
MT4/5 has a backtestor function to automate back testing rather than manual back testing. Can you pls help provide some insights on how we can utilise this function with your strategy? I.e. ATR, confirmation and exit indicators? Thanks in advance!
I found out about you when I purchased a cheap course with a playlist of "recommended youtube videos". your ichimoku indicator video was there and I've been stuck to nnfx ever since but I have a random question. In your dirty dozen vid you mentioned that we shouldnt use Japanese candlesticks. Should we not use ichimoku either then cause it's old aswell? also I get a little lost, in some videos you use oandas charts. should we use oanda when making specific trades?
You should use mt4 for both trading and indicators, as it is where you can use the most indicators. More than likely VP is just using oanda charts to show an example.
Very nice video vp. What is considered a decent win-rate for a singular indicator? i just want a reference figure in my head as I go through the back testing.
VP, I’ve watched ATR about 3 times and DONT hbdeestand one thing. For example EUR/GBP the atr is only 0.00434, this times 100 is only 0.43 so 0.43 pips. Is this correct? If so how would you make a trade on that basis? Set a stop loss of half a pip? That’s automatically going to be a losing trade. Hoping you could clarify this for me, thanks, if that’s the case I’d almost avoid any pair that has a Low atr if it doesn’t allow my trade to breathe at least one pip the other way
@@NoNonsenseForex got it. Been up all night, 0.0073 is 73 pips. 0.73 is 73 pips And 1.113 is 111 pips. Thanks for the reply VP. Currently waking thru indicators and back testing
With how many Currency pairs you do this? Only with the Major pairs and only after i hit +60% on these i test it on the other pairs to see if it's consitent? Also do you have only 1 System for Forex? Or do you have eg. for the US pairs another Confirmation Indiacator as for the rest?
Mathematically if TP is 1 ATR, SL is 1.5 ATR and the process is absolutely random the average W/(W+L) should be 60%. What percentage of W/(W+L) you consider as good enough?
Hey guys! Im a bit confused with the link VP provided www.mql5.com/en/code/mt5/indicators . There is something like 115 pages of indicator but looking at them is chinese to me. I look at them and since most of them have a poor description, i dont know what its use case for. Entry? Volume? Exit? Who know. Anybody know how i could fix this problem with some tips? Thanks
Hey VPzers, I need to understand something, I have started with my back testing and as I understand it, I need to start from the most recent signal and go back but if you think about it, some of the signals you get would actually be exit signals from that indicator as crossing back from an initial cross would mean get out. Price does not move back wards, so would it not make more sense for me to start testing from 2 years ago? then move forward as price would? I don't know if I'm making any sense... PLEASE HELP??!!!!!
Those who take things seriously I bet they read it. I have few questions but right now your site says you’re down for a few day as you migrate to different server or something. Can I ask when I’ll be able to give you my queen?
I'm currently trying to backtest different indicators for the normal stock market. I'm finding many successful combinations using Webull's chart data, but feel I'm deceiving myself because at any point in time I go back, the indicator line slopes and positions are all based on past events, including the time ahead of the point I'm trying to test at. How do I trick the indicators to forget the moments ahead of that timeframe so they act like they would when used in real time?
@@NoNonsenseForex Thanks! I see now that is true except for the last segment of the trend lines which wiggle up down with the current price as it varies.
In the example VP said that 120 pips is counted as a lost, is that the fixed value for backtesting, or do I use 1,5*ATR since the ATR in the example was 80? Does anyone know this :D?
I've watched all the relevant material... and gotten this far however my strategy tester is stuck at about 77% and doesn't complete... I now wanted to get onto the heavy work of back testing my indicators but can't seem to fix this problem... is learning code the only way to fix this problem. Do I have to extended my learning curb to comprehend code to fix this please help...
Hi i have been testing alot of indicators with an EA following your methos with 1:1.5 atr TP and SL. It seem that most indicators even som from your dirty dozen get around 60% win rate. So what is how much is a good procent, over 70%? I have even tried to do some crazy stuff reading indicator values and they still get around 60%
28 pairs. All the major pairs and crosses. He made it pretty clear. If your indicator only works well on 14 but works like shit on the other 14 then you have a bad apple
Please help me out I tryed Metatrader 4 app, markets but I sow few free indicators, so please assist me with little steps where do I find those 1000's free indicators I would like to try them, which sites do I visits?
Here's what I struggle with VP. Which components of your algorithm can you test independently? Based on this video, you backtest confirmation indicators with ATR. I believe ATR should be used in testing every other component. But what about for example, testing baseline with volume indicator and ATR. What if your baseline is solid but the volume indicator brings it down, or vice versa, baseline not great but volume indicator solid. How would you know without further intricate cross-testing? Is there an optimal grouping for testing? I'm probably over-complicating it but at the same time, this could help avoid over-testing which could end up skewing the results. Maybe your algorithm is written in such a way that the list is in order of most independent component to least or from general to specific. Huge fan of your podcasts by the way.
No educator has ever made me feel so certain that I will succeed in the forex market, your putting us years ahead.
I've been hooked on this for a few weeks now as I'm a complete beginner. (dabbled awhile back briefly) Some of it's definitely frustrating as its clearly a steep learning curve between broker platforms, indicators, lot sizes, P&L %'s, JPY pairs (WTF), ATR, etc., but... does anyone else get super excited when they find an indicator combination that does amazing in their backtesting! (70% winrate on my first two pairs just under 2 years each) That alone is a huge motivation to keep going!!
And VP your cutthroat no nonsense no ads approach is excellent, thank you keep it up!
Josh Richardson that’s how you know you have cheated on backtest, 70% indicator probably doesn’t even exist.
@@tezwoacz I got 85% on 2 year back test. Once i tested it on more pairs and further back in time it fell apart though.
@@willspeakman2461 would you tell me the indicator you found 85% useful? I have a list too, I am backtesting for 6 months. still i have ocean of source for indicators I would finish them first before going to forward testing.
Doing the back testing your way reaps unexpected good benefits: getting myself out of the way, eliminates the misconceptions about trading, cultivating the discipline and the resolve to follow the confirmation indicator. Heartfelt thanks, VP
Hey VP, I'm a low level prop trader for the Apiary fund. I found your channel because a couple of the traders at Apiary were discussing it online.
So far your stuff is enjoyable and you don't hold back. It's difficult to abandon some of what I've been taught because I've had a little success, but I'm enjoying the free education and one of my personal mottos has always been to never. stop. learning.
Indicator hunting is hard!
Thanks again for your time and commitment, sir.
I literally watching from the very beginning video of this channel to this one for 2 days straight. And it really opened my eyes on how i see forex before. Im a new trader, and im trading for about 3 months already with a demo account using those strategy of typical trader out there. And this channel thought me that the way i trade was wrong. And I think i really need to reset and change how i trade before. Im glad that i found this channel, and thank you VP for making this videos.
First off, thank you for your podcast and channel. I had first started learning forex from a company that taught traders how to trade based off of visual recognition of price patterns using Fibonacci ratios to define the pattern. Some people had success with it, but I couldn't justify spending hundreds of dollars a month to learn a method that didn't sit right with me. I always believed that the brain will see what it wants to see so visual pattern recognition is inherently flawed as a trading method. A Twitter follower pointed me here and I binged nearly every podcast episode over the last week, and I am currently backtesting my first confirmation indicator on its default settings.
This method just feels so much better for me than looking at the charts and hoping I am seeing what is really there and not just what I want to see. All your videos have been super helpful in helping me get started, especially the trend indicators, risk structure, and backtesting videos. I am very excited for what 2019 brings after spending a year and a half trying to learn a method that I never really believed in and getting no where with it.
I felt the same. Knew there were better ways, so I went and found them.
300+ indicators already tested and 15 gems was found. It's kinda boring sometimes, but I am already see the advantages. Thank you VP!
I’ve done 60 with 3 gems ✊🏽
Can you share them for better of the community please?
carlos dani share please
I won't ask to share indicators, cuz that's urs efforts... BUT IF U COULD JUST POINT ME IN DIRECTION like where to look, other than MQL5.com
and do u test them on all TIME FRAMES? or just DAY TIME FRAME?
I've been watching everything VP has posted, first voice I hear in the morning and last I hear in the night
I found out that, the more often I back test and forward test my algorithm, the more I get to know what they each are telling me and the more I trust them. Because at the end of the day, technical analysis, discipline and rules that I follow to the T, will rule over my "oh but that's a 3 pattern thingy, the S/Rs are coming!!" hence putting my feelings out off the equation. And even after a loss(es), I can still sleep like a baby at night and ready to start planning (inspired by your routine) for the next trade. I'm pretty much of an emotional guy, but when my "team of analysts" say "go git it!" i don't think twice. Yes, I might be new, and i have blown accounts too (well not as much as you thou) since 2012, but after 7 years, you made me understand now when you said that you don't put your feelings when it time to execute an order.Yup, I'm at that state now.
VP, you are a God sent.Peace, blessings and prosperity to you. Thank you from Jakarta, Indonesia. And Marco, where ever you are can just go to hell. (vid reference)
PS: Your Renko + SSL vid has inspired me to do more research on them, and now fits perfectly with my algorithm.
I often need to come back to this podcast 💡
I came across this podcast while researching Heiken-Ashi candles and Fibonacci
Newbie: ZERO (bad) habits... Great Podcast! This one is very helpful as I'm researching and setting up my system. No trading yet as I'm also learning to navigate through the MT4 Platform. I really like how you are slowly explaining things. Just started about a 2 weeks ago. From Montana
Damn VP, I’ve been at this for a solid year in February. and have been approaching trading quite furiously and maddeningly hours on end from the start. Books, bots, flying crabby pattern scanners; anything that I could or can get my grubby, little trading-obsessed hands on (especially, the carnival ride on the internet),l. But you brother, you’re a tsunamic trading phenomenon. Ive done some work towards trading about a decade ago, or so, for a year and a half, but never made any real solid ground. Not such as the ground I’ve made listening to you, my friend. I’ve binged A LOT (multiple times on the same videos and podcasts), but I must drop you a line NOW and say: this one EPISODE... you f@cking blew me away. Unbelievable. Thank you so much, VP. That last bit of your podcast, I truly appreciate your words. I’m THAT doer you speak of, and it is my hope to contact you in the future with my story of success. I don’t know who are or where the hell you came from, but let me tell you VP, and I mean this with total conviction...
YOU’RE A GENUINE ANOMALY.
Keep it up brotha...
PEACE
I like the fact that it was this episode in particular. Shows where your head's at.
This is great! I don’t use indicators for anything more then decorations for my charts. Bunch of maybes and ifs. I just don’t trust them enough to make a trading decision. Thought they were all crap, more or less. I am very open mined though and believe you. I spent all weekend, last weekend testing these things wrong. Now I know. So, back to the drawing bored. Success is a formula, and believe you have it figured out. Thank you VP.
This is where the backbreaking work starts, sometimes feel like reverting to easy old trend lines and just using the zig zag indicator, oh well I'm this far guess there's no going back
Thanks VP! Admittedly I went straight to forward testing on demo because it seemed cool.
Recently did a backtest just on the SSL over 3 years data and oh man did I learn a thing or two!
It took forever because I was being meticulous in data entry. I even kept a log of "maximum potential scale out" movements on every trade and I was absolutely floored by the result.
I double checked the numbers as I didn't believe it at first, but scaling out is definitely where it's at.
It was professor VP, in the Library, with the Candlestick :D
^^^ why have I not thought of this brilliant line before :). Anyway, Thanks VP!
Good day VP. I have a friend and over the years, we let each other know about things that could enhance our lives for the better. He shared ep.0 and the rest is history. I listen and go through babypips as a reminder and the added unknown knowledge. Instant fan and do not mind taking the time, focus, or the energy to become a full time day trader. I thank my friend and you for my new journey.
You can put a bunch of the same indicator on the chart and adjust the settings then save it as a template so you can put it on other pairs quicker.
I started searching for indicators last night. I'm looking forward to backtesting them. Im excited, i think im gonna enjoy doing this, thanks VP:)
I encourage everyone to look at the blog for this episode and get set up properly.
Thanks, had some few question, but I believe the blog will answer those
Last words "go out there and get it".... Love it.
Started two months ago, By far one of the best channels out there.
More than lots of time is put into trading, more then you might realize. Gotta get dirty to find those gems
Good luck everyone!
@@SaintzGaming so how is your trading going?
Bro I've been researching forex for the last 5 to 10 years blew out my account 3 times. When i say no bs you have the tightest presentation on forex that I've snacked on. This is cooked crack.. I'm Diggz it bro. When i hone in I feel obligated to throw you a bone. Your the ish.. keep it up Real recognize Real...🤘
Get it!!
Hi VP
I agree with you
Step by step, pieces by pieces, each week and weekend for the long times. Thanks for given to me my chance
Xxxx
Thank you!
Hey VP, you probably should add this topic into the MUST READ after the core concepts and etc. I spent endless hours working with your main structure, backtesting indicators as an algorithms set within your main structure. It was an absolute headache testing 5-6 indicators together before knowing the potential of each indicator itself. I spent weeks pondering what went wrong.
Then I decided to rerun your podcasts from ep1 to see if there were any hidden gems I could have missed. This episode is what I really need. None of the indicators I was using got me results, all between 60- 70% win percentage. I could have ditch them earlier should I test them individually first rather than as a set of algorithms.
Anyway, indicators with 60-70% win percentage still got me 3:1 win ratio in terms of total pips when they work together. I wonder what could be the outcome for indicators with 80% win percentage.
Does the atr count as indicator?
VeePee....you are dope man....everything about the podcast, youtube, blog etc is on point...how you even deliver these things is killing and chilling.
Been following you like a few weeks now and surprisinly, i am seeing changes already in my demo algorithm. i am not overwhelmed yet cos i know there is still more grounds to cover. (searched for some, eliminated some but wanna recall them now to back test after reading this before finally discarding the failures)
God bless you man real good.
Glad i stumbled on you.
Hey! Congrats on 1.2k subscribers! They are jumping in the right train finally
yea congrats, now you have to try to post more videos as frequently as possible.
The best of Forex trade is yet to come...
by the way guys, i'm looking out for a professional trader that would help me trade in my account and i can pay for his services... i heard their are offers like that.
by the time I am watching it, it's 21k !
@@VilkasDe 24k:D
112 k now
Remember, it's possible your first back trades are losers. I ran into a string of 6 losses right off the bat but ended up being a consistent winner. Persistence. Thanks, VP. Teach 'em to fish and you've fed them for life.
would u care to share couple ?
teach a man to ''FISH'' and he'll REPAINT all day! lol
Thanks for the great podcast and sharing your wealth of knowledge as a professional trader.
Always great information and definitely not the conventional "wisdom".
One thing that I always fail to comprehend. VP is giving out his professional opinion for FREE and his perspective of what you need to do to win in this game. 17000 people have watched the video and only 796 have bothered hitting LIKE (less than 5%). Wow guys this man (right or wrong) (I believe right) has given you his time, his knowledge and over 10 years of experience in the markets to help you out FOR FREE. Just for that the least you can do is hit like button.
As for the 9 people that hit dislike, I guess all I can say its a perfect reflection of the world we live in. Maybe you should go and pay $7K for a trading course so you can learn nothing and blow a few accounts. Then come back to this channel expand your paradigm and maybe just maybe you can learn how to be apart of the 1%.
Thank you VP for all your excellent work and the amazing material you share with us every week. (Yes, big LIKE from me)!!!!
Tested my second indicator it sure does take a heck alot of time starting out(took me around 2 hours) but once you get used to it you can do it far quicker. SMI indicator 52% winrate
then realised i was backtesting for 2 good years instead of 6 months
Thanks VP for the videos and podcast. Found you a few days ago on TH-cam and subscribe straightaway. Just can't get enough of your valuable information. Appreciate your no nonsense approach.
this is my new fav episode
Most important episode yet
You mention in the backtesting blog to disregard a trade when a signal changes before it can be a win or loss. Do you move on to the signal that interrupted it or to the next one that has a clear win or loss result? Also, if that happens in a live session with a signal saying go long and a few days later go short without reaching the SL or TP, do you find it best to disregard that new opposing signal and just let it get stopped out or pull out immediately (given other indicators agree)?
If you're in the trade after the opposite signal has come up, you've been in the trade too long. You can use this signal as your exit indicator if you like, or try to find something that gets you out sooner.
@@NoNonsenseForex Thanks, makes sense. I've been waiting for the trade to reach the ATR or ATR*1.5, so when a new signal appears before those points, it still comes out as either a loss or win of a few pips (some come close so it's more than a few) so I'm deciding whether to count those towards the win/loss record or throw them out. Just want to make sure my data is as accurate as possible.
Only 2 words for this video and all the other videos. THANK YOU !!!!!
Simple and Direct Information!
I look forward to becoming a Great Trader!
Thanks To You VP! 💪
Happy New Years! ✅
thanks VP Great video as usual !
Another important piece. 👍 Thanks VP.
I found you on TH-cam. I appreciate your content...uncommon by the many others online. Keep the content coming. Thank you.
Hi VP, I rarely comment on videos. I am almost done with your regular series and catching up on the podcasts. I've been doing forex for about 2 years on and off with on and off success and I had yet to stumble across anything that ever seemed to make sense until I came to you. Thank you so much!
That final message got me.
I am not sure if i missed some things, but has vp ever mentioned anything about automatic backtesting using MQL4 (metatrader 4 built-in programming language for trading robots )? or did he ever mention/eleborate on why manual backtesting is superior?
Thank you so much for this podcast! and the blog.
Hey VP, I know this video is old but i'm in the backtesting phase for my C1 and the "chalk it up as nothing" is a bit confusing. I've consumed all the materials for confirmation and backtesting, asked in the discord and even then there's a split between "every time C1 flips you exit and count it as a win or loss depending on where you exit as that's what you would do in the forward tests ( since C1 flip is an exit condition )" and "I just chalk the signal flips as nothing" and so if the discord is split between it it leaves some confusion.
The only thing here is that if you chalk up as nothing then the fast indicators will dominate the slower ones and conversely if you count each flip as a win/loss then the slower indicators dominate the faster ones. Like hell with this one trend indicator on the EURUSD for example, it had 82% winrate over 45 trades ( and this was with a decently high period ) with a little over half chalked up as nothing which doesn't seem really realistic you know?
I don't know if i'm overthinking this but i want to do this right to build a good foundation for myself when i put in those long nights in so if you could clarify a bit more on that then it would be appreciated ( like how low of a period is too low or whatever ).
All you're trying to do at this point is get a raw W/L rate, so you can just cancel out the times it gives you neither one.
@@NoNonsenseForex I gotcha, thanks for answering this VP i really appreciate it.
Great revelations as usual. Thank you !
Thanks so much VP the algo is working so far still got a lot of testing to do but each trade has worked in the last few weeks except when I got in the way
meanwhile were at 33k subs! look the like/dislike rate.. says enough! Big up VP we're really thankfull! :)
Sir VP, what currency pair you usually use during backtesting?Is there a currency pair that could test your Algorithm effectively?
Good work done, VP.
Actually, this is an awesome podcast. Thank you! ❤️
Any tip to avoid "curve fitting" during backtesting?
Dunno what that is
@@NoNonsenseForex I believe he's referring to overfitting your model (I'm assuming you know what that means, but for others...) where your model fits the past input data so well that the model is not flexible enough to deal with new data in the desired way.
You cannot avoid fitting, it is either implicir (you fit it), the computer fits it (optimization), or your knowledge does (tacit fitting), always do "Roboust" optimization when letting the computer (use out of sample testing), also avoid "grid" optimization, do not more than 20 iterations for any parameter (that is 5% of the range), study what happens "around" the parameter iterations, pick the "median" parameters (study a paper on "parameter permutation").
The important thing is to find out if the in-sample results are just "luck" by comparing them to the out-sample (you can use linear regression of returns), you have to find something with actual predictive value (the edge), anything else is rubbish and will get horizontal or downwards reggressions in the out-sample.
If it has over 90 percent winrate, its probably a repainter. Check it on 1 minute chart.
Hey! I am loving the content and just starting to dig deep, I am completely new! I think this content if saving me from crazy mistakes!!! Just starting some backtesting and super excited. I am just wondering where on the candle is the best place to measure from? On the close or open of the candle? Just wanted to double before I get it wrong!!
I got it, close of all! I seem to be getting a lot of chalk ups? Almost as many as wins? and Losses are low. Probably doing something wrong?
Thanks a lot !!!!So motivation !!!!!!!
Don't forget to test all the indicators for repainting !
This is going to be my 3rd attempt at back testing. 2 months lost but i had to start somewhere. I think i really get most of the aspects and pitfalls of back testing now. I even tested different periods of ATR and divisions of the ATR figure. The only thing concerning me is the RRR. I prefer 1:1 just because it makes it easy to test. Il probably test the RRR after i find some good indicators to use. The problem i have now is having to many spread sheets.
Same problem I had.
thanks VP for the great education. I am a new NNFX adopter here. question about finding out which happens first: hitting 1xATR or 1.5xATR on the opposite direction. If I stay on daily chart and the high/low prices engulf 1xATR and -1.5XATR, how do I know which one was hit first? or I should use 1-minute chart to help me to find out more granular price? thanks!
Set your take profit levels in advance so this won't happen.
Just joined NNFX recently and I have the same question. Still don’t get it after reading VP’s reply. Can someone kindly elaborate how to set the take profit levels in advance when doing backtesting?
@@evelenema7560 drop to a lower timeframe and see which one hit first.
When backtesting a CI, where do you take the entry price from? is it the open or close of that candle or the open of the next days candle?
Mark as you back test more and more this will continue to happen, you get places on the charts where you are just not sure. For me I see two options 1. Put entry/start point in the middle of the candle or 2. Put entry/start point at the begging of the next candle. To try and keep your back testing as accurate as possible pic just one of the two options and use it each time you are not sure. When I am not sure I always start in the middle of the candle for all my back testing. Best of luck/skill to you.
If I understand correctly, VP trades in the last 15 minutes of the close of the candle, so I would take the entry point as the close of the candle you get the signal
Found you on youtube...The Best!
I came across a video when I was looking for info on the Macd. I still use it but i have tweaked the settings after much testing and it works better for me
I am also trying another line cross indicator and seeing if it works better...
Im finding the MT4 platform pretty good overall for charting, but not that great for entering trades - the stop loss is a pain, you need to calculate the money management manually (although some indicators out there overlay it on the screen but clutter things up) and its really easy to accidentally move your trade with the wrong mouse click. From the videos, I noticed VP uses Oanda - which helps with trade management. What do people think?
A lot of people use Oanda.... try it!
Thank you for this! Been backtesting for about two weeks. Still not sure when to focus on ROI or Win Rate, though. Haha. I'll get there.
Win rate for single indicators.
After watching you, every Forex add that starts off saying anything along the lines of "do you want to make 10k a week..." I skip and say VP would be proud
I have a question, I hope you will notice me. I read this on your blog "You will find times where your indicator gave you a signal to go the other way before price had the chance to become a win or a loss. Just chalk this up as nothing, and move on."
So, i don't need to record the false(whipsaw/choppy) signals that my indicator gave me? even though its obvious a loss, as long as it didn't hit the 2x ATR, I dont need to record it? I just want to clarify. pls help me. Thankyou.
You will ignore those would-be losses along with some of the would-be wins, yes.
@@NoNonsenseForex thankyou VP.. last question about the ROI.. What’s a good yearly of return that I should be aiming for 1 currency pair ??
hey VP thanks for all the info; i've downloaded like 250 confirmation indicators and backtested 70 ish, so far i have found 6 really good ones (80% winrate and above) do you think i should move on to other stuff and keep backtesting on the low or should i finish all of em first. Love from morocco
What is a good sample size for back testing?
I love the NNFX way and I'm figuring out pieces for my algorithm how long should I backtest the indicators in H1 time frame? For daily tf Ive been backtesting the indicators for atleast 2 years.
on which currency pair we should backtest? all?
I came back to this video because I reckoned this would be the best place to ask this question.
So I’ve recently bought this backtesting EA to save time with backtesting indicators. It can even backtest entire algo’s. Members of the Discord will know which EA I’m talking about. I’ts awesome and saves a lot of time compared to manuel backtesting.
However: the optimization option is a curse upon itself, because it promotes over-optimizing. Many “simple” indicators have only 1 input, like the Aroon U&D. But a more advanced indicator like the BH-Ergodic or ASH have over 6-7 inputs. You can make up to 2-3M different combinations just with these settings alone! Not to mention the combinations combined with baselines, volume-indicators, Money Management, ATR settings, ect.
Surely I’m over complicating things when I try to backtest every possible combination. So how to avoid? How to determine in advance which of the input settings you want to test and when do you decide the ROI of the indicator is worthy enough to add C2,V, and B indicators?
At some point I have to accept the fact that there might have been a better combination of settings and just go with what I have, right?
VP might not answer this question anymore, but thats fine: I value everyones input just as much!
Tnx
I came across your material searching for Forex and would like to join the blog . TY
How does vp backtest or how do you guys backtest? Do you guys use a software or do you guys just scroll back in charts and manually do it from there?
Yo VP I have found out a fast way to do this - I use ATR Bands with 1.5 multiplier and length 1 point. So I dont need to calculate it all myself.
Also I add Atr Bands with 1.0 Multiplier to see if the TP was first.
Thank you!
if the signal that im currently testing with the atr is interrupted by another signal that just as appeared,
in your blog you said that we just need to chalk up this as nothing and move on
but which signal i have to chalk as nothing, the actual signal or ignore the new one and continue with the first one?
i already know, dont worry about it ...
@@Subliminal-b5s I have the same question. Could you shed some light?
Stuggling to identify when exactly I would have entered a trade (what is my starting point in measuring the pips vs ATR and SL). For example, if you look at the go short signal on 6/12/19 Identify Trend ind where the blue turned to red at about 1.1314 and the ATR was about ~59, that candle's high for the day was about 30 pips above the go short signal. So in a case like this I'm trying to figure out when exactly I would have entered this trade? Would it have been before this candle reached it's high for that day? Do I take the trade at the next candle?
Brian as you back test more and more this will continue to happen, you get places on the charts where you are just not sure. For me I see two options 1. Put entry/start point in the middle of the candle or 2. Put entry/start point at the begging of the next candle. To try and keep your back testing as accurate as possible pic just one of the two options and use it each time you are not sure. When I am not sure I always start in the middle of the candle for all my back testing. Best of luck/skill to you.
Hi Patrick! How and where can one download good quality data for backtesting? There is a limit of data provided in brokers. Why do they do this? Is data so important?
What is a good win ratio that we must aim for while back testing ? Plz reply.
The ATRs value at the end of the NY session is the TP you go for
MT4/5 has a backtestor function to automate back testing rather than manual back testing. Can you pls help provide some insights on how we can utilise this function with your strategy? I.e. ATR, confirmation and exit indicators? Thanks in advance!
Stay tuned!
I found out about you when I purchased a cheap course with a playlist of "recommended youtube videos". your ichimoku indicator video was there and I've been stuck to nnfx ever since but I have a random question. In your dirty dozen vid you mentioned that we shouldnt use Japanese candlesticks. Should we not use ichimoku either then cause it's old aswell? also I get a little lost, in some videos you use oandas charts. should we use oanda when making specific trades?
You should use mt4 for both trading and indicators, as it is where you can use the most indicators. More than likely VP is just using oanda charts to show an example.
Very nice video vp.
What is considered a decent win-rate for a singular indicator?
i just want a reference figure in my head as I go through the back testing.
VP when I am tweaking settings, do I put higher or lower than the default settings? Thanks VP :)
VP, I’ve watched ATR about 3 times and DONT hbdeestand one thing. For example EUR/GBP the atr is only 0.00434, this times 100 is only 0.43 so 0.43 pips. Is this correct? If so how would you make a trade on that basis? Set a stop loss of half a pip? That’s automatically going to be a losing trade. Hoping you could clarify this for me, thanks, if that’s the case I’d almost avoid any pair that has a Low atr if it doesn’t allow my trade to breathe at least one pip the other way
You're not reading the ATR correctly.
@@NoNonsenseForex got it. Been up all night, 0.0073 is 73 pips.
0.73 is 73 pips
And 1.113 is 111 pips.
Thanks for the reply VP. Currently waking thru indicators and back testing
With how many Currency pairs you do this? Only with the Major pairs and only after i hit +60% on these i test it on the other pairs to see if it's consitent?
Also do you have only 1 System for Forex? Or do you have eg. for the US pairs another Confirmation Indiacator as for the rest?
VP u r the best
I have a question. If I pay that feee, will you share your strategy??? thanks
Not for sale
@@NoNonsenseForex I know that, that was clear already...I agree with you. Are those 7 indicators, some how hidden on your paid/VIP approaches???
No, because there is no paid/VIP anything here.
Holy grail is not for sale :)
Mathematically if TP is 1 ATR, SL is 1.5 ATR and the process is absolutely random the average W/(W+L) should be 60%. What percentage of W/(W+L) you consider as good enough?
Hey guys! Im a bit confused with the link VP provided www.mql5.com/en/code/mt5/indicators . There is something like 115 pages of indicator but looking at them is chinese to me. I look at them and since most of them have a poor description, i dont know what its use case for. Entry? Volume? Exit? Who know. Anybody know how i could fix this problem with some tips? Thanks
Hey VPzers, I need to understand something, I have started with my back testing and as I understand it, I need to start from the most recent signal and go back but if you think about it, some of the signals you get would actually be exit signals from that indicator as crossing back from an initial cross would mean get out. Price does not move back wards, so would it not make more sense for me to start testing from 2 years ago? then move forward as price would? I don't know if I'm making any sense... PLEASE HELP??!!!!!
You start from x years back and go forward, even though we call it backtesting.
@@NoNonsenseForex Okay VP no Bullshit man!! It this really you responding??!! Cuz you have to understand I'm star Struck Right Now!!!!!!
Thank you so much
So underrated I think
Those who take things seriously I bet they read it. I have few questions but right now your site says you’re down for a few day as you migrate to different server or something. Can I ask when I’ll be able to give you my queen?
15 min on the dot nice man!
I'm currently trying to backtest different indicators for the normal stock market. I'm finding many successful combinations using Webull's chart data, but feel I'm deceiving myself because at any point in time I go back, the indicator line slopes and positions are all based on past events, including the time ahead of the point I'm trying to test at. How do I trick the indicators to forget the moments ahead of that timeframe so they act like they would when used in real time?
You shouldn't have to. Indis are bases to data which occurred to the left of them, not the right.
@@NoNonsenseForex
Thanks! I see now that is true except for the last segment of the trend lines which wiggle up down with the current price as it varies.
How would you measure the ATR of the chart 1 year ago?
Scroll back
@@NoNonsenseForex I am so sorry VP, my cat could even figure that out.... Thanks for your help!
In the example VP said that 120 pips is counted as a lost, is that the fixed value for backtesting, or do I use 1,5*ATR since the ATR in the example was 80? Does anyone know this :D?
I've watched all the relevant material... and gotten this far however my strategy tester is stuck at about 77% and doesn't complete... I now wanted to get onto the heavy work of back testing my indicators but can't seem to fix this problem... is learning code the only way to fix this problem. Do I have to extended my learning curb to comprehend code to fix this please help...
I'm a doer, VP!!
You seem to be, yes.
Hi i have been testing alot of indicators with an EA following your methos with 1:1.5 atr TP and SL. It seem that most indicators even som from your dirty dozen get around 60% win rate. So what is how much is a good procent, over 70%?
I have even tried to do some crazy stuff reading indicator values and they still get around 60%
How many currency pairs should you backtest at least? You referred it as a question we'd have in the blog, but didn't answer it..
28 pairs. All the major pairs and crosses. He made it pretty clear. If your indicator only works well on 14 but works like shit on the other 14 then you have a bad apple
Please help me out I tryed Metatrader 4 app, markets but I sow few free indicators, so please assist me with little steps where do I find those 1000's free indicators I would like to try them, which sites do I visits?
Here's what I struggle with VP. Which components of your algorithm can you test independently? Based on this video, you backtest confirmation indicators with ATR. I believe ATR should be used in testing every other component. But what about for example, testing baseline with volume indicator and ATR. What if your baseline is solid but the volume indicator brings it down, or vice versa, baseline not great but volume indicator solid. How would you know without further intricate cross-testing? Is there an optimal grouping for testing? I'm probably over-complicating it but at the same time, this could help avoid over-testing which could end up skewing the results.
Maybe your algorithm is written in such a way that the list is in order of most independent component to least or from general to specific. Huge fan of your podcasts by the way.
Every time you add a new piece you need to see how it fares against what you already have built. Then test the whole thing.