I don't know if 2 years is going to be enough time to replace developers. If you're talking single scripts, sure, I can see that in some instances. Take SQL for instance, I've asked ChatGPT a few times to generate some scripts because I'm lazy and it gets a D at best with a F the vast majority of the time. Most development uses some sort of back end to store data and LLMs suck in that area right now. How about creating a C# solution and all the components, I don't think so. I don't think it can even do that right now. And finally, the LLMs will need to be run locally because there's a ton of developers in the world and there's no way they can afford to run all of that through cloud services. There would have to be some huge advances in that 24 months for that to happen. I don't see it.
The purpose of having a human body is for us immortal souls with free will is to gain certain limited experiences so we can grow our awareness and gain more power and become more responsible
Unless there's a major breakthrough with a AI architecture other than transformers, the idea of AI replacing or helping software engineers a lot is just a mere hype from people who are part of the game of selling AI assistant subscriptions, I'm using AI assistant for coding for a year, the most it can be described is "sometimes a good autocomplete" and nothing more.
I agree, though I do get a bit more value out of ai when I get coding assistance, tbh to replace the dev you will need something akin to agi haha it can barely code snake on its own😂
Natural Language is the new programming language. That's the LLM side. On the ML side, Code has a natural feedback mechanism like learning to win at chess or go. Code runs or it doesn't. It can be tested for efficiency, for security. Judgement calls like usability and intuitiveness can be turned into tests. NL on the frontend and perfect code on the backend. This is already doable within a few years. There is nothing new to invent. It is just another application of AI's current capabilities.
As is often cited "When you reach level 6 people say 'It won't reach level 7'" ...Among translators we used to say, it's hardly much more than a good dictionary, it can help you with expressions, thesaurus... Google translate was sluggish, buggy, clumsy, for years, showing no sign of progress. Now AI is a translator, give enough archive and context it is a very good translator... In your field it's just a little slower because the pressure of the market was lighter, but it's coming soon.
I had never coded before and I’ve used it to create probably 60k lines of code for a game I’m working on. It gets harder to work with if the scripts get longer but it’s pretty astounding that it actually works. That’s also pretty profound that a non Coder can do that
Really looking forward to what the new $100B compute farms can come up with in the next generation. Bigger farms, and synthetic data might bring us miracles. Might not. We will know soon enough.
Your assertion about being 10x more work when there is a 10x increase in productivity does not make a lot of sense. It is impossible to still have a big shortage of developers in the same time that tech is experiencing now massive layoffs. Being a service that is in many situation not essential, the demand for programing and developing application is dictated by many other economical factors, not just by the productivity of developers.
I don't know if 2 years is going to be enough time to replace developers. If you're talking single scripts, sure, I can see that in some instances. Take SQL for instance, I've asked ChatGPT a few times to generate some scripts because I'm lazy and it gets a D at best with a F the vast majority of the time. Most development uses some sort of back end to store data and LLMs suck in that area right now. How about creating a C# solution and all the components, I don't think so. I don't think it can even do that right now. And finally, the LLMs will need to be run locally because there's a ton of developers in the world and there's no way they can afford to run all of that through cloud services. There would have to be some huge advances in that 24 months for that to happen. I don't see it.
5 years is far more likely if you ask me
The purpose of having a human body is for us immortal souls with free will is to gain certain limited experiences so we can grow our awareness and gain more power and become more responsible
It won't replace coding, it'll replace code.
Unless there's a major breakthrough with a AI architecture other than transformers, the idea of AI replacing or helping software engineers a lot is just a mere hype from people who are part of the game of selling AI assistant subscriptions, I'm using AI assistant for coding for a year, the most it can be described is "sometimes a good autocomplete" and nothing more.
I agree, though I do get a bit more value out of ai when I get coding assistance, tbh to replace the dev you will need something akin to agi haha it can barely code snake on its own😂
Natural Language is the new programming language. That's the LLM side.
On the ML side, Code has a natural feedback mechanism like learning to win at chess or go. Code runs or it doesn't. It can be tested for efficiency, for security. Judgement calls like usability and intuitiveness can be turned into tests.
NL on the frontend and perfect code on the backend. This is already doable within a few years.
There is nothing new to invent. It is just another application of AI's current capabilities.
Have you tried cursor? Does a lot more than jsut autocomplete
As is often cited "When you reach level 6 people say 'It won't reach level 7'" ...Among translators we used to say, it's hardly much more than a good dictionary, it can help you with expressions, thesaurus... Google translate was sluggish, buggy, clumsy, for years, showing no sign of progress. Now AI is a translator, give enough archive and context it is a very good translator... In your field it's just a little slower because the pressure of the market was lighter, but it's coming soon.
I had never coded before and I’ve used it to create probably 60k lines of code for a game I’m working on. It gets harder to work with if the scripts get longer but it’s pretty astounding that it actually works. That’s also pretty profound that a non Coder can do that
As cs first year scares me
Really looking forward to what the new $100B compute farms can come up with in the next generation. Bigger farms, and synthetic data might bring us miracles. Might not. We will know soon enough.
Your assertion about being 10x more work when there is a 10x increase in productivity does not make a lot of sense. It is impossible to still have a big shortage of developers in the same time that tech is experiencing now massive layoffs. Being a service that is in many situation not essential, the demand for programing and developing application is dictated by many other economical factors, not just by the productivity of developers.
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