I think these videos are the peak of your limited content (and I like all the limited content). Explaining where you went wrong, and why, gives so much information about the limited format as a whole while grounding it in super specific examples. I hope you get as much value out of this as others do.
one interesting stat to look at on 17 lands could "improvement when drawn" (IWD) being the difference between the wr when the card is seen in a game and the wr when it isn't. By looking only at the wr one could misjudge cards that are in a mediocre color but are actually performing decently in it. For example "into the fae court" has the highest IWD (at 5.6%!) of all common cards so it could be deserving of a higher rating even if blue is overall underpowered. For context that's the same IWD of the archon of wild rose (which is very surprisingly underpeforming imho, I would have rated it as a massive bomb)
IWD isn't quite what you think it is. It only counts drawing it other than your opening hand. Lots of cards you don't want in your opener have a high IWD because they are way better to draw later.
@@NizzahonMagic just checked on 17 lands, it seems to use "ever in hand" for the computation of IWD instead of "drawn" as one could expect from the name (unless I'm misreading something). Personally I find it more useful this way but a feature to do simple operations between the various columns such as "drawn" - "not seen" or "seen" - "opener" seems like a grat idea.
The only time I saw anyone play Thunderous Debut was into 2x Hamlet Giant. Such a brutal game changer. But it's clear you have to build around it, and that comes at a real cost in tempo.
Into the Fae Court is better than ya think. The faerie token can enable bargain and faerie tribal synergy. Or can be buffed and attack in the air ftw. It's a strong card.
Nizza, do you plan to talk about the 4/4 haste giant that makes creatures not able to block as an adventure? I feel that card is an overperformer as it helps close out games. Not a b grade or anything, but I'd always play the first copy in my agressive decks
Went 2-1 in a prerelease off of Imodane's Recruiter. Don't know that I'd have graded it an A- off of that, but in no pools have I thought of playing Living Lectern, despite being a few times.
Lectern's ability needed either to be usable at instant speed (even though they hate on-board instant speed combat tricks now), or cost 0 mana to activate
Primary issues with looking at 17 Lands data: 1) It's basically a convenience sample, as you noted. Only those who care about the data opt into data recording. If everyone opted in, the results would probably be quite different. 2) It's still too early for law of large numbers to guide the results, given the population size. 3) The data probably do not take into account the flow of the format (which I think goes to potential sampling error issues). Early in the format, the more competitive players are racing to reach mythic and utterly stomping less competitive peeps while later on you don't have that huge mismatch in skill during matches (not as much anyway).
Yeah, I've talked about how it isn't perfect in the past and it certainly isn't the end all be all, but it is still really useful data. I don't think your first point is particularly relevant, though. You have to correct for the higher win percentage, but how the cards are performing in the hands of the better players is arguably MORE useful than if it was just everyone's data, in which case it would be harder to discern anything.
I play a Rakdos Rats deck and Sewer Witch has pulled off some pretty nutty finishers. It's entirely dependent on your board state, of course. She swings pretty quick from being a bomb to "Please don't draw Sewer Witch..."
Stockpiling celebrant hurt me deeply one game. Opp played Princess takes flight and exiled a creature, then buffed a creature and bounced the saga to scry. Then exiled another creature. Not the norm, but it left scars 😂
Callous Sellsword has been a very underrated card for me. It is a sac outlet for 1 mana (great for Twisted Fealty), gives aggro some reach and the floor is almost always a 2 mana 3/3, sometimes better
I’m not sure what metric you use, but I think Recruiter is even better than you’re portraying it. I’m seeing a 63.8% GIH WR as of right now, 5th highest in the set
I really like all these points but would like toadd - mintstrosity is basically a better sweettooth witch, right? yes, it is vulnerable to x/1 hate but it is a whole mana less which is huge in these fast paced games. I agree the witch is great and worth shouting out but it feels that mintstrosity is being snubbed by not being mentioned when compared to the witch.
The main reason for sweettooth witch being rated this high is because, as said in the video, it can be a serious way to close out games. Mintstrosity is mostly jus a fine card which provides cards like sweettooth witch with more fuel reasonably well, but not much else.
In my opinion Nizzahon never values lands properly unless the land can turn into a creature and even then, he sometimes undervalues them. Find other MTG players for a more accurate take on limited lands. Nizzahon just doesn't like lands.
If only Living Lectern had Defender and at least 1 power it would be SOooooo much better against what are the best decks, Rakdos and Boros go wide. Not being able to repel rats and other X/1's is a death sentence in this format.
Seems like most recent draft formats have that vibe. That trend really made March of the Machine stand out as a great format where you wanted to prioritize value instead of damage.
Could you consider basing your grades on how good the cards are for formats like standard / historic? I feel like seal / limited are not that relevant, especially with the passage of time. Id really like to see grade that say a bit more about the card compared to other cards and sets around it, rather than to its own set, as I feel that grade would give much more information with that context. Thanks for the video!
showing living lectern with 52.4% winrate could be very confusing to newer players, not knowing 17 lands stats are used by often the better players that have above 50% winrate with bad cards. should be mentioned 50% is not the middle point
I am a bit noob with all of this. But What is the average win rate of 17 lands players? And shouldn't that be a big bias when analyzing and ranking cards? Not sure how many use 17 lands and if that would skew the data in a meaningful way.
Important to note that Princess Takes Flight is also an amazing combo with Stockpiling Celebrant. Replaying it is even more back-breaking.
As someone who has been absolutely run over by someone playing the same Princess Takes Flight three times (and then bargaining it), can confirm.
@@Arcdeek princess took flight so much she's almost a war ace
stockpiling celebrant the princess takes flight lol (that works how I want it to right?)
It's real and it's spectacular.
I got this done to me twice in a game. Felt bad man.
Yes, it does work that way. Did it twice in a game to two different people at Prerelease and at least once every game. Won the tournament off of it.
Yes! Also Apprentice's Folly if you splash right.
Fantastic combo
I think these videos are the peak of your limited content (and I like all the limited content). Explaining where you went wrong, and why, gives so much information about the limited format as a whole while grounding it in super specific examples.
I hope you get as much value out of this as others do.
one interesting stat to look at on 17 lands could "improvement when drawn" (IWD) being the difference between the wr when the card is seen in a game and the wr when it isn't. By looking only at the wr one could misjudge cards that are in a mediocre color but are actually performing decently in it.
For example "into the fae court" has the highest IWD (at 5.6%!) of all common cards so it could be deserving of a higher rating even if blue is overall underpowered. For context that's the same IWD of the archon of wild rose (which is very surprisingly underpeforming imho, I would have rated it as a massive bomb)
IWD isn't quite what you think it is. It only counts drawing it other than your opening hand. Lots of cards you don't want in your opener have a high IWD because they are way better to draw later.
@@NizzahonMagic just checked on 17 lands, it seems to use "ever in hand" for the computation of IWD instead of "drawn" as one could expect from the name (unless I'm misreading something). Personally I find it more useful this way but a feature to do simple operations between the various columns such as "drawn" - "not seen" or "seen" - "opener" seems like a grat idea.
Stockpiling Celebrant also removes Cursed roles, which are pretty common vs blue.
Stockpiling celebrant is pretty much always amazing, one of the best commons in the sets. The sinergy in white alone is amazing.
it always seems to bounce back the princess card against me
@@trkyjrky99That's brutal 😅
U did a really good job quickly explaining 17 lands in this vid, I had not fully understood in earlier videos and this time it clicked
The only time I saw anyone play Thunderous Debut was into 2x Hamlet Giant. Such a brutal game changer. But it's clear you have to build around it, and that comes at a real cost in tempo.
I also think the card is much better in bo3- you just cut it against aggro and bring it in against slower decks.
had into the fea court with BU fearies, played it often for 4 with the discount fearie. that makes it pretty great
It also works great in GU decks with 5+ mana spell payoffs
yea imodanes with how aggressive the format seems and the ability to splash makes it feel nutty
I really like the stats next to the card while you're talking about it.
Into the Fae Court is better than ya think. The faerie token can enable bargain and faerie tribal synergy. Or can be buffed and attack in the air ftw. It's a strong card.
15:25 - Vampiric Rites is another good one
Nizza, do you plan to talk about the 4/4 haste giant that makes creatures not able to block as an adventure? I feel that card is an overperformer as it helps close out games. Not a b grade or anything, but I'd always play the first copy in my agressive decks
I also underevaluated imodane. I havnt play it in my prerealease even of i played red. It was a mistake.
Went 2-1 in a prerelease off of Imodane's Recruiter. Don't know that I'd have graded it an A- off of that, but in no pools have I thought of playing Living Lectern, despite being a few times.
Lectern's ability needed either to be usable at instant speed (even though they hate on-board instant speed combat tricks now), or cost 0 mana to activate
I knew Imodane's Recruiter was nuts when I evaluated it for my cube, it's both a token generator and a Bushwacker for W/R/X aggro.
I liked the first Eldraine a lot. This one is fast and unforgiving.
Primary issues with looking at 17 Lands data:
1) It's basically a convenience sample, as you noted. Only those who care about the data opt into data recording. If everyone opted in, the results would probably be quite different.
2) It's still too early for law of large numbers to guide the results, given the population size.
3) The data probably do not take into account the flow of the format (which I think goes to potential sampling error issues). Early in the format, the more competitive players are racing to reach mythic and utterly stomping less competitive peeps while later on you don't have that huge mismatch in skill during matches (not as much anyway).
Yeah, I've talked about how it isn't perfect in the past and it certainly isn't the end all be all, but it is still really useful data.
I don't think your first point is particularly relevant, though. You have to correct for the higher win percentage, but how the cards are performing in the hands of the better players is arguably MORE useful than if it was just everyone's data, in which case it would be harder to discern anything.
I play a Rakdos Rats deck and Sewer Witch has pulled off some pretty nutty finishers. It's entirely dependent on your board state, of course. She swings pretty quick from being a bomb to "Please don't draw Sewer Witch..."
Stockpiling celebrant hurt me deeply one game. Opp played Princess takes flight and exiled a creature, then buffed a creature and bounced the saga to scry. Then exiled another creature. Not the norm, but it left scars 😂
Callous Sellsword has been a very underrated card for me. It is a sac outlet for 1 mana (great for Twisted Fealty), gives aggro some reach and the floor is almost always a 2 mana 3/3, sometimes better
Love your work!
Glad you enjoy it!
Imodane's Recruiter's winrate is actually way higher at 63.4%.
I’m not sure what metric you use, but I think Recruiter is even better than you’re portraying it. I’m seeing a 63.8% GIH WR as of right now, 5th highest in the set
These are my favorite videos!!!
I kept getting distracted by your red sox hat
Lectern is like 3 mana draw a card, create a role, gain 3 life(on average)
@Nizzahon, do you ever rate a card with an E or does it go from D- to F?
I really like all these points but would like toadd - mintstrosity is basically a better sweettooth witch, right? yes, it is vulnerable to x/1 hate but it is a whole mana less which is huge in these fast paced games. I agree the witch is great and worth shouting out but it feels that mintstrosity is being snubbed by not being mentioned when compared to the witch.
The main reason for sweettooth witch being rated this high is because, as said in the video, it can be a serious way to close out games. Mintstrosity is mostly jus a fine card which provides cards like sweettooth witch with more fuel reasonably well, but not much else.
I love these videos. Thanks Nizzahon.
Glad you like them!
What's your rank and W/L after your 20~ drafts?
I think Crystal Groto was also underrated, you gave it D- but 17lands says it’s winrate for drawn in game is 56.1%, higher than half of the manlands
I think having one Groto at least so you can possibly play an off color creature/adventure in which you play the other side for value anyways.
In my opinion Nizzahon never values lands properly unless the land can turn into a creature and even then, he sometimes undervalues them. Find other MTG players for a more accurate take on limited lands. Nizzahon just doesn't like lands.
bro i got a turn three sneak attack and turn four sneaked three big creatures and a moon shaken calvery
Sounds fun, but I don't recommend trying to do that again haha.
the biggest overperformer for me is erriet's apple, it ends so many games out of nowhere
If only Living Lectern had Defender and at least 1 power it would be SOooooo much better against what are the best decks, Rakdos and Boros go wide. Not being able to repel rats and other X/1's is a death sentence in this format.
finalyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy i been playing this format so much.
It's not good
@@nikmidclayton5933 i like it
Beards looking good!
Will you be doing crack-a-packs in the upcoming WOE Nizzanotes?
Bro you are so close to 100k subscribers 😼
nizzahon = ניצחון
?
solid review
My sealed had 2 thunderous debut bleh
Do you like RATS DECK?!
Awww no crack-a-pack. Still nice video
I officially don't like drafting this set. Seems like your options are just aggro or deck that loses to aggro.
Seems like most recent draft formats have that vibe. That trend really made March of the Machine stand out as a great format where you wanted to prioritize value instead of damage.
Yep. It's bad. Next
Could you consider basing your grades on how good the cards are for formats like standard / historic?
I feel like seal / limited are not that relevant, especially with the passage of time.
Id really like to see grade that say a bit more about the card compared to other cards and sets around it, rather than to its own set, as I feel that grade would give much more information with that context.
Thanks for the video!
This video is...entirely about Limited...so...that's like going to Chinese restarauant and asking them to serve you Lasagna.
This format is a stinker
showing living lectern with 52.4% winrate could be very confusing to newer players, not knowing 17 lands stats are used by often the better players that have above 50% winrate with bad cards.
should be mentioned 50% is not the middle point
2:22
He literally talked about that for like a minute
Lol
I am a bit noob with all of this. But What is the average win rate of 17 lands players? And shouldn't that be a big bias when analyzing and ranking cards? Not sure how many use 17 lands and if that would skew the data in a meaningful way.
Why is audio so bad?
It isn't
A know it all card reviewer got it wrong about his reviews ..... shocker