@@redsed1565 we vote for others to make rotten decisions , new zealand has the same problems , but we voted for our uneven tax system again . we the people are the problem
@@grizzz6884 NO, we vote dont all vote for the maggots in charge! U know the system is screwed so no matter who wins we are still screwed! So NO not we, its them!
There is a more fundamental problem. As soon as anything looks shaky the govt/banks spray money. If we didn't automatically reward asset owners like this then people could do what they like in a more level playing field. In any case, a massive wealth transfer from income earners to asset owners has already played out for decades, so the damage is done. Everyone will just have to see what the FED does with rates now and accept the consequences.
And in the same breath, I'd like to see the statistical evidence to support the claims about all the extra hospitals, services and infrastructure being all covered by the taxes these extra new arrivals are paying.
In the suburb where I live, they re-zoned to double the density. Almost everyone sub-divided their blocks, and the local population has easily doubled. Things no-one did: renovate the leaky, 50-year-old water mains; upgrade the sewers; put the electricity wires underground, where they belong; widen any of the roads; provide any new public transport; magically teleport our suburb any closer to a hospital or university; fix our run-down primary school, built in 1964. They did demolish the local police station, and rebuild it four times the size. I can't imagine why that was necessary - surely over-crowding doesn't increase the crime rate.
I don't want any more houses, covering over agricultural land and wildlife habitat with roofs and roads for the benefit of foreigners and the already rich property developers.
Australian population density is very low by world standards - and by that I mean in the cities and towns, completely ignoring the actual area of the country. Do you want the same ratio of nurses that the UK has (about half that in Australia)? It's not just about the developers - and the developers are rich because Australia (Federal and states) do not have a housing policy - they have abrogated this to the developers. Your complaint should be to the government not the developers (and I'm not defending the developers just stating the facts).
@@grahamjacob97 Just because the world is grossly overpopulated, doesn't mean that we have to be. When Australia was much smaller, we had plenty of nurses.
We need a coordinated effort to tactically pressure the government. What can we orgainise? If we don't do something with all our efforts we are betraying future generations and dooming our children to never owning a home, or be able to have any bargaining power in working conditions.
Good luck with that now that most women have careers these days and pay levels are catching up . Women once had a role to bring up our children, not any more
Yes, our governments are following policies that discourage baby making: no-blame divorce, compulsory superannuation and immigration. Population increase pushes up the value and price of every square metre of land that is within a reasonable commute of a CBD. Anything that pushes up the price of housing or makes us live more densely, is anti-baby making. The capitalists are happy for white Australians to die out. That gives them the excuse to replace us with cheaper labour from poorer nations that have no history of unionism.
Bankers and their downline... Plus various industry groups, non-for profit organisations (many foreign-funded), ethnic community leaders, etc... Plus the main political parties looking to replace their decline primary vote with a new voting block.
I'm disgusted at the state of the road infrastructure. All they do is build up a new housing development and bang in a few more traffic lights to cope, except it makes the congestion 10 times worse. Where I live, I've seen the main roads for connecting the north-west suburbs of Brisbane continuously get clogged with unnecessary traffic lights which have turned simple 5 minute trips down the road into 10-15 minute drives as you're caught at every traffic light.
Build high density housing near the city centre and have good public transport. London is larger than either Sydney or Melbourne (based on the below the population is about 8.53m): There are 2.56m cars licensed in London. This equates to an average of 0.3 cars per adult. In total, 46 per cent of households do not have a car, 40 per cent have one car and 12 per cent have two or more cars, with very few households owning more than two cars.
If the employment market has a hiccup like say if inflation keeps going up causing layoffs lookout....everything seems broken at the moment. What a mad mad world. A generation of incompetent politicians.
That's what stuns me. What sort of jobs are been created? What ever they are, they seem to be paying enough for people to push batsh#t crazy house prices, even higher!@@DavidAKZ
As you will find out in the next few weeks the actual number of new immigrants in Australia for the past 12 months has exceeded 900,000 it hasn’t been publicly disclosed as yet but it has been uncovered by a certain particular party
Wow I hope that the certain particular party is going to make sure this is made public. In my area there are couples both working with young school age children living in tents in caravan parks because they cant get a rental property.
Yes, that's frightening. And I would believe it too. Brisbane is looking like an extraordinary boom is happening. Traffic crazy. Everything busy busy busy. Houses selling in days.
0:52: 🏠 There is a debate about the appropriate level of migration in Australia, with some calling for a cut to improve housing affordability and others celebrating the potential for higher home prices. 0:52: Australia's annual immigration intake should be reduced to 200,000 people to avoid overwhelming government efforts to boost supply and improve housing affordability. 1:14: Current immigration levels are causing an acute housing shortage and poor affordability, and official forecasts are unreliable and understated. 2:08: Chief Economist Shane Oliver suggests cutting immigration levels back to 200,000 over 5 years to allow breathing space for supply to catch up. 2:37: Boosting supply through building high density homes and decentralizing to the regions won't have an immediate impact on the shortage. 3:17: Immigration levels need to be calibrated to the ability of the homebuilding industry to supply housing. 4:04: 🏠 Australia's housing demand is expected to increase due to population growth, but there is a shortage of affordable housing. 4:04: The property sector in Australia lacks skilled workers, and immigration should be adjusted to bring in more construction industry skills. 4:54: Victoria is expected to have the largest population increase, followed by New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia. 5:40: Australia's population is predicted to increase by 2 million people by 2026 and reach 35 million by 2046. 6:13: There is a need to increase housing supply to address the shortage and lack of affordability in Australia's housing market. 6:26: Melbourne and Sydney are forecasted to have the highest population growth, requiring an estimated 1.6 million and 1.2 million additional homes, respectively. 7:12: 🏢 Melbourne's population growth is driving demand for housing, leading to solid house price growth in the medium to long term. 7:12: Melbourne's population growth will require 422,000 additional dwellings. 7:42: Investors should consider areas with low price growth in Melbourne, as prices are expected to become more attractive. 8:07: Southwest suburbs of Sydney, including Blacktown and Parramatta, are predicted to have the strongest population growth over the next 20 years. 8:38: Mortgage stress is highest in areas where new housing supply is predicted to be built, creating a bigger problem. 9:09: Migration needs to be brought back to a more sustainable level to address housing affordability and infrastructure challenges. Recap by Tammy AI
200,000?!That is an extra million every 5 years! Way too many. We are already at our water supply limit. Has everyone forgotten those fish kills? During the second half of the last century, which is only 23 years ago, the average intake was 70,000 migrants per annum. That average includes the post-war migration which was considered to be high, but was nothing like our present intake.
The privateers want their business mates to sell us water from energy consuming desalination plants. Just like in Gaza. There is a term in farming.... stocking rate. If a property is overstocked your livestock suffer since your resources can't sustain them. Is overpopulating any different? 💀
@@pmcamacho6447 There are idiots that claim that if you can cram all of the people in the world into a small area, then the world is not overpopulated. Which is like saying that if you can cram all of your livestock into a small pen, then your land is not overstocked.
Yes, a property developers wet dream. Most Australians agree that we should reduce immigration so our standard of living is not diluted any further. It's never an issue on the Radar or media or politics. It's ingrained in our Institutions to ignore population as a problem. We always seem to be in the minority when we are not. How do we make the bastards take notice. Have we ever had a Federal Minister for Population?
@@grizzz6884 All three major parties want high immigration. Even the Greens. If the Greens were actually green they would oppose immigration completely. Migrants come here to increase their consumption of the earth's resources, their waste and their carbon emissions. That is what 'seeking a better life' means.
Housing shortage? Ha ha! Wait until the next drought! Then you'll know what a shortage is! And it won't be housing, I'll give you the tip. Remember those 3 minute showers that we had in the early 2000's? Next drought, two minutes. Those groceries at the supermarket that have been going through the roof, lately? Wait until the next drought, then let me know what "expensive" food is, when we're importing it. And another tip: When you're living under a bridge, because you can't afford a house, dig a hole a couple of feet down, where the creek used to be. You'll find a bit of water, with luck.
How is Labor going to fulfill Albos promise of millions of new homes? Not one Australian in right mind will buy a high rise apartment. Will it be all foreigners unwittingly buying into the next Mascot Towers?
A lot of Asians prefer apartments because they are used to a high population density. For instance, the district of Mong Kok in Hong Kong has 130,000 people/sqkm, and the district of Hongkou in Shanghai has 32,935 people/sqkm. They are paying a good premium looking for high density apartments, especially those near a good public school.
Australians would flock to apartments in any major city if they were priced right, just ask public housing tenants, apparently there's a 20 year waiting list.
Plenty of people - yes even Australians would like to live in high density housing close to culture. Not everyone builds a boat in their backyard or plays cricket or tunes the Torana at the weekend.
There is a term in farming.... stocking rate. If a property is overstocked your livestock suffer since your resources can't sustain them. Is overpopulating any different?
Property prices were generally doubling every 7 years in the 80's. Then they slowed to every 10 years or so as interest rates declined. We can expect a reversal with higher interest rates going forward.
Ah - Immigration But before we delve into immigration we need to address the elephant in the room - Australia does not have a housing policy, and Australian states do not really have housing policies. By that I am saying that housing policy is driven almost entirely by the private sector. The private sector buys land and applies to develop it, often requesting a change in land use in the process. Since this is driven by the private sector then it is highly likely that a reduction in immigration will see a reduction in building. The private housing sector ALWAYS wants demand to exceed supply. This should be blatantly obvious to everyone. Fifty years ago when I moved to Australia (actually almost 53 now) the policy in the NT (we were in Darwin) was that the government would control the planning process and actually paid for about 2/3 of the housing to be built. The building was undertaken by private builders but to government designs. The NT was probably somewhat unique in the quantity built by the government but in reality around 1/3 of people will never be able to afford to buy a house - even if in employment they simply don't earn enough or their jobs aren't stable enough. For now we consign these people to the dregs of the rental market as governments of all persuasions have given up. The Federal government has a near limitless supply of money via borrowings at lower interest rates than anyone else (bond market) and could make this available to the states or even local governments for building houses. Obviously, there would need to be safeguards but this should significantly reduce the cost of housing if the government (Federal and States) sat down and developed a decent housing policy. This is a completely separate issue to immigration. Now to immigration. Immigration should only mean those with the right to stay permanently in Australia or in the process of obtaining that right. It should NOT mean students on student visas. While some, many or even most may wish to obtain Australian permanent residency the student visa is NOT a permanent visa nor is it a direct route to one. Anyone graduating and wishing to become a permanent resident needs to apply for a different visa. Student accommodation is also a major issue and has had the effect of pushing out less affluent young people from cities. Again the Federal government could in partnership with the states fund decent student accommodation - essentially studio apartments near campuses. Now to the rest of immigration. Generally in one of two categories: family reunion and skilled. The former has been pushed to the sidelines yet it should be bleedin' obvious that with a greater proportion of immigrants who were either born overseas or have at least one parent born overseas that culturally these "new" Australians may seek partners from their home countries and in fact any Australian should be able to bring their legitimate spouse to Australia. This should absolutely be their and our right. To say otherwise effectively makes some Australians less than other Australians. Apparently the ratio of nurse to patients in Australia is about twice as high as in the UK and yet salaries in Australia for nurses is also higher. My personal experience is that the healthcare system in Australia is definitely better than the UK. Both countries rely heavily on immigrant healthcare professionals. I expect that Australia is doing it better. Do we really want fewer nurses and doctors? No doubt in other areas there are similar arguments. And I appreciate that deciding whether a certain area is needed or not can be very difficult. I was made redundant from a very well paying engineering role in 2016 and spent the next 2 years on the tools (as I had both a trade certificate and an engineering degree). In the end my opportunity to get back into engineering meant returning to the UK. I'm HUGELY lucky to be a dual national with significant engineering experience. The work I was doing in Australia has not come back and may not ever come back. My final point on immigration, housing and all that is that Australia is mostly empty - and yes I know why. I've lived in Darwin, Cairns, Airlie Beach, Mackay, Launceston, Hobart, Geraldton, Perth and Quairading. Apart from working in each of these places I have worked in the Pilbara and have family in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. Basically, in 50 odd years I've seen most of Australia. I've also worked in SE Asia including Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. And I'm now living in the UK. I fully appreciate that Alice Springs will never be a city of a million people (and nor should it) but if the combined Federal and state governments did get around to developing a combined housing and immigration and finance policy then a lot of the problems could be solved.
We don't have a shortage of doctors. We have an excess of patients due to high immigration. 20 years ago, we didn't hear talk of 'skilled labour shortages" or of homelessness. It is immigration that causes shortages.
Half of Perth's drinking water is expensively desalinated. Any extra people mean more desalination. But the newcomers aren't going to bear the cost of it. Everyone will have to pay more for their water.
200,000 is a million in 5 years. Too many. The average migrant intake during the second half of the last century was 70,000 pa which included the large post war immigration. We didn't hear about 'skills shortages' and homelessness then.
Are we ignoring the political realities? Surely the Federal Government wants high growth. And migrants are desperately needed to sustain growth. In my view, policy decisions are made to serve the Government's desire to get itself re-elected. Voters are sold on continued growth and lower taxes (less government spending). Housing is "left to the market."
Economic growth is ruining the Earth. And despoiling our country. Growth is eradicating our wildlife habitat and putting our rare and precious species closer to extinction. Old growth trees with nesting hollows are being cut down, to be replaced with wind turbines to provide electricity for all the newly arrived foreigners.
I like immigrants. But Australia is headed for a catastrophe. If we don't virtually halt immigration for the next few years, we will have more than a million homeless Australians. Living in a tent is not like a camping trip! Homeless people are becoming resentful and lawless. We have followed America's extreme capitalism and we were going to end up like them. The government has opened us up to international competition for housing. We are being replaced.
Tommy...Tommy. put your hand down. But Miss Anja. Is your answer about economics? No Miss. There's no solution there. The poor fund the wealthy and get poorer. Then...put you hand down, Tommy. The only solution allowed is economics for profit. Down...Tommy! Put your hand down. That's better. The RBA funding the vital non profitable part of the economy, never talked about by anyone else other than you.
Australian Federal governments have always had high migration policies. This is because they have coveted ever higher taxation revenues since the creation of the Federal government. This is not going to change so high levels of migration will continue assuming there is not an event like a pandemic or a war.
In the "good old days" the Australian government actually ramped up infrastructure and housing ahead of the immigration curve, now the infrastructure can just keeps getting kicked down the road for someone else to deal with, that's the biggest issue these days.
@@scottfree993 I have no interest in being taxed to provide infrastructure for foreigners who are, at present, living overseas, but will be invited to come here and compete with Australians for urban living space and drinking water.
Note the parallels between Canada and Australia's housing affordability, then compare the past 20 years migration statistics specifically the dominant source. If a quota was placed on yearly visas issued per country this would go a long way to evenly support migration aligned to infrastructure capacity, without being overwhelmed by the most opportunistic. And ensure a more multicultural society as a bonus.
Per country immigration is blatantly racist AND leads to corruption. Why does it matter where someone comes from? There definitely need to be criteria - and the people that come need on balance to benefit Australia as much if not more than the immigrants themselves. It's virtually impossible to migrate to Australia if you are not in the "golden" years of 25 - 45 and have a degree.
Housing prices increased significantly in Canada after 2008 financial crisis. This is due to speculation and lack of building supply which is deliberate. I don't know about Australia but here we have a cozy construction and mortgage sector that work hand in hand to boost home prices. Blaming immigration is a red herring. Canada has been bringing in about 1% of its population as immigrants every year since the 1990s. So why have home prices zoomed higher in the last 10 to 12 years as opposed to before - because increasing home prices are not caused by newcomers - they simply join the property ladder at the current price after a few years in the country.
Just don't allow any migration unless country/state meets certain requirements. These could be Rental vacany rate, has to be above a certain % for that city/state Number of homes being built for that city/state Traffic measurements (ave commute time, rail capacity etc). Hospital waiting times Local amenities e.g. sports fields. Measure this as percentage of the population for a city Unemployment rate (if above certain % then not allow skilled migration) School vacancies If one state can meet above above that state is allowed to have migration. That way you don't piss off the people already here and forces Fed/state to do something before rather than always chasing their tails to construct infrastructure
To maintain infrastructure requires around 2% of GDP. Population growth requires that percentage growth increase of GDP for the additional required infrastructure. Where is that infrastucture to service that increased population.
All Australian population centres have a reasonably high risk of running out of water within 5 years. If this building super El Nino last that long. Past El Ninos have lasted much longer. Building more dams on nonexistant water flows will not help. Only rain will reduce the risk.
Hi Martin - where can we access the mortgage stress chart/map which you showed on screen at 8:40 (as would be interested to view these and get updates on them)?
Thanks Mr. Martin...Well True Believers of the future...1200 properties to rent and double that on sale!...here in the Greater Parramatta Region...wotta ya waiting for...eh?
That's clearly not the answer. Our cities need to stop expanding so rapidly. Governments cannot keep up with the necessary transport infrastructure to meet the needs of people in outer suburbs who are consequently highly dependant on motor vehicles.
I don't want more density and I don't want more agricultural land or wildlife habitat covered over by roofs and roads. We can avoid both urban sprawl and high rise, by having a moratorium on immigration, then getting it back to the level that it was the average 24 years ago.
@@anthonyscully2998 There should be resistance to new estates on urban fringes. The housing crisis is being caused by our massive migrant intake. We can avoid both high rise and urban sprawl by getting immigration back to the average of 70,000 pa as it was 24 years ago.' We didn't hear about 'skilled labour shortages' then.
I’m not sure you should be commenting on what we do here in Australia given you’re a foreigner now . Maybe you should start commenting on your adopted country Martin
@@Andre_XX I said that tongue in cheek he is an Australian regardless of where he lives but I wouldn’t want to rely on his forecasts , he’s been predicting a housing crash since 2016 I’d hate to have held off based on his info ha ha
Incompetent government can be as destructive to a country as an external enemy.
More so
If not worse
Martin thinks its we the people making the rotten decisions. LOL
@@redsed1565 we vote for others to make rotten decisions ,
new zealand has the same problems , but we voted for our uneven tax system again .
we the people are the problem
@@grizzz6884 NO, we vote dont all vote for the maggots in charge! U know the system is screwed so no matter who wins we are still screwed! So NO not we, its them!
We need to make it illegal for politicians to own more than two houses. Let's have a referendum on that.
There is a more fundamental problem. As soon as anything looks shaky the govt/banks spray money. If we didn't automatically reward asset owners like this then people could do what they like in a more level playing field. In any case, a massive wealth transfer from income earners to asset owners has already played out for decades, so the damage is done. Everyone will just have to see what the FED does with rates now and accept the consequences.
it's not just housing, it's everything. For example, we sure as hell aren't adding 1000+ hospital beds every year to keep the bed:people ratio stable.
And roads houses etc
And in the same breath, I'd like to see the statistical evidence to support the claims about all the extra hospitals, services and infrastructure being all covered by the taxes these extra new arrivals are paying.
WE don't have the staff available to work those extra beds, migration will fix that
In the suburb where I live, they re-zoned to double the density. Almost everyone sub-divided their blocks, and the local population has easily doubled. Things no-one did: renovate the leaky, 50-year-old water mains; upgrade the sewers; put the electricity wires underground, where they belong; widen any of the roads; provide any new public transport; magically teleport our suburb any closer to a hospital or university; fix our run-down primary school, built in 1964. They did demolish the local police station, and rebuild it four times the size. I can't imagine why that was necessary - surely over-crowding doesn't increase the crime rate.
Exactly. And you can include nursing homes and jails....
I agree, migration should be massively lower or stopped for now until we can provide housing for our current citizens
We don't have the builders needed to build new housing, migration will fix that
"current citizens": They're the people the government wants replaced, evidently.
Spot on, for the next 20 years!
yea it needs to stop for at least the next 10 years..or until houses are back to 3.5-5 annual income(preferable single but lol at that):/
But there bigger profits to be made from scarcity.
I don't want any more houses, covering over agricultural land and wildlife habitat with roofs and roads for the benefit of foreigners and the already rich property developers.
Australian population density is very low by world standards - and by that I mean in the cities and towns, completely ignoring the actual area of the country.
Do you want the same ratio of nurses that the UK has (about half that in Australia)?
It's not just about the developers - and the developers are rich because Australia (Federal and states) do not have a housing policy - they have abrogated this to the developers. Your complaint should be to the government not the developers (and I'm not defending the developers just stating the facts).
@@grahamjacob97 Just because the world is grossly overpopulated, doesn't mean that we have to be. When Australia was much smaller, we had plenty of nurses.
We need a coordinated effort to tactically pressure the government. What can we orgainise? If we don't do something with all our efforts we are betraying future generations and dooming our children to never owning a home, or be able to have any bargaining power in working conditions.
I don't even see any petitions
www.aph.gov.au/e-petitions/petition/
Yep.
talk to , the people you would not normaly talk to , and hate no one
Lay flat , let it rot , i Am the Last Generation !
If the economy was run properly domestic birth rates might be higher.
Good luck with that now that most women have careers these days and pay levels are catching up . Women once had a role to bring up our children, not any more
@@chrism9767 I refer back to my initial comment.
Yes, our governments are following policies that discourage baby making: no-blame divorce, compulsory superannuation and immigration. Population increase pushes up the value and price of every square metre of land that is within a reasonable commute of a CBD.
Anything that pushes up the price of housing or makes us live more densely, is anti-baby making. The capitalists are happy for white Australians to die out. That gives them the excuse to replace us with cheaper labour from poorer nations that have no history of unionism.
@@chriswatson1698 100% , Sydney no 3 in the world I think
@@chrism9767
Number 3 for what ?
Who is pulling the leavers of migration policy?
Greedy capitalists.
RBA
That WEFer Claire O'Neill
Bankers and their downline... Plus various industry groups, non-for profit organisations (many foreign-funded), ethnic community leaders, etc... Plus the main political parties looking to replace their decline primary vote with a new voting block.
It’s a long list of self interested people.
Don't get me started on this. Needs to be reduced considerably. The Gold Coast is being totally trashed. Especially the southern end of it...
the whole country is!
The only thing that is important is the propping up the housing market, It is how it works when the majority of people with influence own property.
Modern politicians just don't have the stomach for economic slowdown
Or brains
Or backbone. Make the private sector bail itself out.
Its coming regardless, Australia is tied to the US dollar and global banking system. Things will get ugly next year and into 2025 i think.
I'm disgusted at the state of the road infrastructure. All they do is build up a new housing development and bang in a few more traffic lights to cope, except it makes the congestion 10 times worse. Where I live, I've seen the main roads for connecting the north-west suburbs of Brisbane continuously get clogged with unnecessary traffic lights which have turned simple 5 minute trips down the road into 10-15 minute drives as you're caught at every traffic light.
It's the same in Melbourne where high rise apartments have recently been built, the traffic has become a time consuming headache.
ever herad of 15 minute citys
Build high density housing near the city centre and have good public transport. London is larger than either Sydney or Melbourne (based on the below the population is about 8.53m):
There are 2.56m cars licensed in London. This equates to an average of 0.3 cars per adult. In total, 46 per cent of households do not have a car, 40 per cent have one car and 12 per cent have two or more cars, with very few households owning more than two cars.
200k is still way too many..
Agreed. 200k is an extra million every 5 years. During the 2nd half of the last century, the average intake was 70,000pa.
Our government should work to better the lives of there voters, anything else is unacceptable.
What about the voters who happen to meet someone overseas and want to marry them?
If the employment market has a hiccup like say if inflation keeps going up causing layoffs lookout....everything seems broken at the moment. What a mad mad world. A generation of incompetent politicians.
So far, the unemployment rate has remained remarkably low.
@williamcrossan9333 yes but what kind of jobs?
That's what stuns me. What sort of jobs are been created?
What ever they are, they seem to be paying enough for people to push batsh#t crazy house prices, even higher!@@DavidAKZ
@@DavidAKZUber???
@@karlcotleanu486 yes. you have people with three jobs trying to make a living wage.
Not only housing all things from roads to medical services to water just madness.
As you will find out in the next few weeks the actual number of new immigrants in Australia for the past 12 months has exceeded 900,000 it hasn’t been publicly disclosed as yet but it has been uncovered by a certain particular party
If true, if like to know how to confirm
Wow I hope that the certain particular party is going to make sure this is made public. In my area there are couples both working with young school age children living in tents in caravan parks because they cant get a rental property.
@@joshdcooperwe will have to wait for them to go public
Yes, that's frightening. And I would believe it too.
Brisbane is looking like an extraordinary boom is happening.
Traffic crazy. Everything busy busy busy. Houses selling in days.
Poor ppl. They need to reach out to news and show the atrocities that current government is subjecting them to.
0:52: 🏠 There is a debate about the appropriate level of migration in Australia, with some calling for a cut to improve housing affordability and others celebrating the potential for higher home prices.
0:52: Australia's annual immigration intake should be reduced to 200,000 people to avoid overwhelming government efforts to boost supply and improve housing affordability.
1:14: Current immigration levels are causing an acute housing shortage and poor affordability, and official forecasts are unreliable and understated.
2:08: Chief Economist Shane Oliver suggests cutting immigration levels back to 200,000 over 5 years to allow breathing space for supply to catch up.
2:37: Boosting supply through building high density homes and decentralizing to the regions won't have an immediate impact on the shortage.
3:17: Immigration levels need to be calibrated to the ability of the homebuilding industry to supply housing.
4:04: 🏠 Australia's housing demand is expected to increase due to population growth, but there is a shortage of affordable housing.
4:04: The property sector in Australia lacks skilled workers, and immigration should be adjusted to bring in more construction industry skills.
4:54: Victoria is expected to have the largest population increase, followed by New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia.
5:40: Australia's population is predicted to increase by 2 million people by 2026 and reach 35 million by 2046.
6:13: There is a need to increase housing supply to address the shortage and lack of affordability in Australia's housing market.
6:26: Melbourne and Sydney are forecasted to have the highest population growth, requiring an estimated 1.6 million and 1.2 million additional homes, respectively.
7:12: 🏢 Melbourne's population growth is driving demand for housing, leading to solid house price growth in the medium to long term.
7:12: Melbourne's population growth will require 422,000 additional dwellings.
7:42: Investors should consider areas with low price growth in Melbourne, as prices are expected to become more attractive.
8:07: Southwest suburbs of Sydney, including Blacktown and Parramatta, are predicted to have the strongest population growth over the next 20 years.
8:38: Mortgage stress is highest in areas where new housing supply is predicted to be built, creating a bigger problem.
9:09: Migration needs to be brought back to a more sustainable level to address housing affordability and infrastructure challenges.
Recap by Tammy AI
Awesome recap. Thanks
200,000?!That is an extra million every 5 years! Way too many. We are already at our water supply limit. Has everyone forgotten those fish kills?
During the second half of the last century, which is only 23 years ago, the average intake was 70,000 migrants per annum. That average includes the post-war migration which was considered to be high, but was nothing like our present intake.
The privateers want their business mates to sell us water from energy consuming desalination plants. Just like in Gaza. There is a term in farming.... stocking rate. If a property is overstocked your livestock suffer since your resources can't sustain them. Is overpopulating any different? 💀
@@pmcamacho6447 There are idiots that claim that if you can cram all of the people in the world into a small area, then the world is not overpopulated.
Which is like saying that if you can cram all of your livestock into a small pen, then your land is not overstocked.
Yes, a property developers wet dream. Most Australians agree that we should reduce immigration so our standard of living is not diluted any further. It's never an issue on the Radar or media or politics. It's ingrained in our Institutions to ignore population as a problem. We always seem to be in the minority when we are not. How do we make the bastards take notice. Have we ever had a Federal Minister for Population?
There was a choice??
Need a referendum on that
there is always choice , but the people vote foe red or blue , like they are watching the footy
@@grizzz6884 All three major parties want high immigration. Even the Greens.
If the Greens were actually green they would oppose immigration completely. Migrants come here to increase their consumption of the earth's resources, their waste and their carbon emissions. That is what 'seeking a better life' means.
Housing shortage? Ha ha! Wait until the next drought! Then you'll know what a shortage is! And it won't be housing, I'll give you the tip. Remember those 3 minute showers that we had in the early 2000's? Next drought, two minutes. Those groceries at the supermarket that have been going through the roof, lately? Wait until the next drought, then let me know what "expensive" food is, when we're importing it. And another tip: When you're living under a bridge, because you can't afford a house, dig a hole a couple of feet down, where the creek used to be.
You'll find a bit of water, with luck.
How is Labor going to fulfill Albos promise of millions of new homes? Not one Australian in right mind will buy a high rise apartment. Will it be all foreigners unwittingly buying into the next Mascot Towers?
Its a policy feature, not a bug. We are scoundrels to much of the world nowadays. We rip off anyone.
A lot of Asians prefer apartments because they are used to a high population density. For instance, the district of Mong Kok in Hong Kong has 130,000 people/sqkm, and the district of Hongkou in Shanghai has 32,935 people/sqkm. They are paying a good premium looking for high density apartments, especially those near a good public school.
Australians would flock to apartments in any major city if they were priced right, just ask public housing tenants, apparently there's a 20 year waiting list.
Plenty of people - yes even Australians would like to live in high density housing close to culture. Not everyone builds a boat in their backyard or plays cricket or tunes the Torana at the weekend.
@@grahamjacob97 On top of that, pretty much all of Australia's home invasions and most robberies occur in freestanding houses these days.
Albo has to go.
so does cookie girl
Before the election, he didn't admit to how many foreigners he was going to bring in to compete with the Australian-born.
Cut immigration to 0. We don't have houses for the existing population for the next decade. What do we do with so many immigrants ??
''I'm from the government and I'm here to help.''
Its to try and keep the market alive but you still have to pay for it or citys will become like slums.
every city shop has a sleeping bag and a bucket in front of it already.
Thats why i got the hell away from any city much better life.@@redsed1565
There is a term in farming.... stocking rate. If a property is overstocked your livestock suffer since your resources can't sustain them. Is overpopulating any different?
A homeless woman was imolated in a park near my local shops, most likely her tent caught on fire.
They(the government and most politicians ) will let it rip
Property prices were generally doubling every 7 years in the 80's. Then they slowed to every 10 years or so as interest rates declined. We can expect a reversal with higher interest rates going forward.
What's Albo's chance of re election?
100%
Zipity doo da.
The Liberals and the Greens are also dedicated to giving our urban land and drinking water away to foreigners.
Ah - Immigration
But before we delve into immigration we need to address the elephant in the room - Australia does not have a housing policy, and Australian states do not really have housing policies. By that I am saying that housing policy is driven almost entirely by the private sector. The private sector buys land and applies to develop it, often requesting a change in land use in the process. Since this is driven by the private sector then it is highly likely that a reduction in immigration will see a reduction in building. The private housing sector ALWAYS wants demand to exceed supply. This should be blatantly obvious to everyone.
Fifty years ago when I moved to Australia (actually almost 53 now) the policy in the NT (we were in Darwin) was that the government would control the planning process and actually paid for about 2/3 of the housing to be built. The building was undertaken by private builders but to government designs. The NT was probably somewhat unique in the quantity built by the government but in reality around 1/3 of people will never be able to afford to buy a house - even if in employment they simply don't earn enough or their jobs aren't stable enough.
For now we consign these people to the dregs of the rental market as governments of all persuasions have given up.
The Federal government has a near limitless supply of money via borrowings at lower interest rates than anyone else (bond market) and could make this available to the states or even local governments for building houses. Obviously, there would need to be safeguards but this should significantly reduce the cost of housing if the government (Federal and States) sat down and developed a decent housing policy. This is a completely separate issue to immigration.
Now to immigration. Immigration should only mean those with the right to stay permanently in Australia or in the process of obtaining that right. It should NOT mean students on student visas. While some, many or even most may wish to obtain Australian permanent residency the student visa is NOT a permanent visa nor is it a direct route to one. Anyone graduating and wishing to become a permanent resident needs to apply for a different visa.
Student accommodation is also a major issue and has had the effect of pushing out less affluent young people from cities. Again the Federal government could in partnership with the states fund decent student accommodation - essentially studio apartments near campuses.
Now to the rest of immigration. Generally in one of two categories: family reunion and skilled. The former has been pushed to the sidelines yet it should be bleedin' obvious that with a greater proportion of immigrants who were either born overseas or have at least one parent born overseas that culturally these "new" Australians may seek partners from their home countries and in fact any Australian should be able to bring their legitimate spouse to Australia. This should absolutely be their and our right. To say otherwise effectively makes some Australians less than other Australians.
Apparently the ratio of nurse to patients in Australia is about twice as high as in the UK and yet salaries in Australia for nurses is also higher. My personal experience is that the healthcare system in Australia is definitely better than the UK. Both countries rely heavily on immigrant healthcare professionals. I expect that Australia is doing it better. Do we really want fewer nurses and doctors? No doubt in other areas there are similar arguments. And I appreciate that deciding whether a certain area is needed or not can be very difficult.
I was made redundant from a very well paying engineering role in 2016 and spent the next 2 years on the tools (as I had both a trade certificate and an engineering degree). In the end my opportunity to get back into engineering meant returning to the UK. I'm HUGELY lucky to be a dual national with significant engineering experience. The work I was doing in Australia has not come back and may not ever come back.
My final point on immigration, housing and all that is that Australia is mostly empty - and yes I know why. I've lived in Darwin, Cairns, Airlie Beach, Mackay, Launceston, Hobart, Geraldton, Perth and Quairading. Apart from working in each of these places I have worked in the Pilbara and have family in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. Basically, in 50 odd years I've seen most of Australia. I've also worked in SE Asia including Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. And I'm now living in the UK. I fully appreciate that Alice Springs will never be a city of a million people (and nor should it) but if the combined Federal and state governments did get around to developing a combined housing and immigration and finance policy then a lot of the problems could be solved.
We don't have a shortage of doctors. We have an excess of patients due to high immigration.
20 years ago, we didn't hear talk of 'skilled labour shortages" or of homelessness. It is immigration that causes shortages.
Plenty of information. Thank you
What about creating a petition demanding parliament debate a referendum on migration?
LOL that's not how democracy works these days mate.
Half of Perth's drinking water is expensively desalinated. Any extra people mean more desalination. But the newcomers aren't going to bear the cost of it. Everyone will have to pay more for their water.
200,000 is a million in 5 years. Too many.
The average migrant intake during the second half of the last century was 70,000 pa which included the large post war immigration. We didn't hear about 'skills shortages' and homelessness then.
I remembered migration numbers were less than 100,000 per annum in the 80's.
Lets commission a statue of Vesta, the roman goddess of the hearth and home onto the main runway & each international air port in Oz?
Are we ignoring the political realities? Surely the Federal Government wants high growth. And migrants are desperately needed to sustain growth. In my view, policy decisions are made to serve the Government's desire to get itself re-elected. Voters are sold on continued growth and lower taxes (less government spending). Housing is "left to the market."
Economic growth is ruining the Earth. And despoiling our country. Growth is eradicating our wildlife habitat and putting our rare and precious species closer to extinction.
Old growth trees with nesting hollows are being cut down, to be replaced with wind turbines to provide electricity for all the newly arrived foreigners.
Labor wants a future peasant class
The entire Westminster construct is expanding the tax base until calamity.
Labor is to busy sucking up to greens voters and forgetting the faithful.
I like immigrants. But Australia is headed for a catastrophe. If we don't virtually halt immigration for the next few years, we will have more than a million homeless Australians. Living in a tent is not like a camping trip! Homeless people are becoming resentful and lawless. We have followed America's extreme capitalism and we were going to end up like them.
The government has opened us up to international competition for housing. We are being replaced.
Tommy...Tommy. put your hand down.
But Miss Anja.
Is your answer about economics?
No Miss. There's no solution there. The poor fund the wealthy and get poorer.
Then...put you hand down, Tommy. The only solution allowed is economics for profit. Down...Tommy! Put your hand down. That's better. The RBA funding the vital non profitable part of the economy, never talked about by anyone else other than you.
the road conjestion is shocking now
Australian Federal governments have always had high migration policies. This is because they have coveted ever higher taxation revenues since the creation of the Federal government. This is not going to change so high levels of migration will continue assuming there is not an event like a pandemic or a war.
In the "good old days" the Australian government actually ramped up infrastructure and housing ahead of the immigration curve, now the infrastructure can just keeps getting kicked down the road for someone else to deal with, that's the biggest issue these days.
@@scottfree993 I have no interest in being taxed to provide infrastructure for foreigners who are, at present, living overseas, but will be invited to come here and compete with Australians for urban living space and drinking water.
Thank you
No one wants their house price to fall.
Note the parallels between Canada and Australia's housing affordability, then compare the past 20 years migration statistics specifically the dominant source. If a quota was placed on yearly visas issued per country this would go a long way to evenly support migration aligned to infrastructure capacity, without being overwhelmed by the most opportunistic. And ensure a more multicultural society as a bonus.
Per country immigration is blatantly racist AND leads to corruption. Why does it matter where someone comes from? There definitely need to be criteria - and the people that come need on balance to benefit Australia as much if not more than the immigrants themselves.
It's virtually impossible to migrate to Australia if you are not in the "golden" years of 25 - 45 and have a degree.
Housing prices increased significantly in Canada after 2008 financial crisis. This is due to speculation and lack of building supply which is deliberate. I don't know about Australia but here we have a cozy construction and mortgage sector that work hand in hand to boost home prices. Blaming immigration is a red herring. Canada has been bringing in about 1% of its population as immigrants every year since the 1990s. So why have home prices zoomed higher in the last 10 to 12 years as opposed to before - because increasing home prices are not caused by newcomers - they simply join the property ladder at the current price after a few years in the country.
Just don't allow any migration unless country/state meets certain requirements. These could be
Rental vacany rate, has to be above a certain % for that city/state
Number of homes being built for that city/state
Traffic measurements (ave commute time, rail capacity etc). Hospital waiting times
Local amenities e.g. sports fields. Measure this as percentage of the population for a city
Unemployment rate (if above certain % then not allow skilled migration)
School vacancies
If one state can meet above above that state is allowed to have migration.
That way you don't piss off the people already here and forces Fed/state to do something before rather than always chasing their tails to construct infrastructure
Hello Martin 😊
How about ZERO immigration for 10 years? It’ll allow us to be Australian again - who knows what we’ve let in recently...
"I'm leaving on a jetplane,
Don't know when I'll be back again"
Choice? Choice????
WHOS WE MARTIN? ITS NOT US, ITS THEM! WHEN DID WE EVER HAVE A SAY?
WE DONT NEED SHANE THE BRAIN TO TELL US THE OBVIOUS!
Good show 🫡
Build a lot more flats.
To maintain infrastructure requires around 2% of GDP. Population growth requires that percentage growth increase of GDP for the additional required infrastructure. Where is that infrastucture to service that increased population.
Thats why the building the second airport in Sydney to bring them 7 days 24 hours isnt it
They have to do what wef says
All Australian population centres have a reasonably high risk of running out of water within 5 years. If this building super El Nino last that long. Past El Ninos have lasted much longer. Building more dams on nonexistant water flows will not help. Only rain will reduce the risk.
Hi Martin - where can we access the mortgage stress chart/map which you showed on screen at 8:40 (as would be interested to view these and get updates on them)?
The underlying data is available via my Patreon. I show the charts in my shows.
Only immediately can improve Lithgow, penrith ,whalan,mt druitt airds
Areas where demographic change happened
migration u should be 0%. Deportation rate 95%
Thanks Mr. Martin...Well True Believers of the future...1200 properties to rent and double that on sale!...here in the Greater Parramatta Region...wotta ya waiting for...eh?
Skilled tradesmen are only half the problem. We need more sub divisions in the outer suburbs
That's clearly not the answer. Our cities need to stop expanding so rapidly. Governments cannot keep up with the necessary transport infrastructure to meet the needs of people in outer suburbs who are consequently highly dependant on motor vehicles.
I don't want more density and I don't want more agricultural land or wildlife habitat covered over by roofs and roads.
We can avoid both urban sprawl and high rise, by having a moratorium on immigration, then getting it back to the level that it was the average 24 years ago.
@@chriswatson1698 that is why we have a housing crisis. There is a lot of resistance to new estates on suburban fringes
@@anthonyscully2998 There should be resistance to new estates on urban fringes. The housing crisis is being caused by our massive migrant intake.
We can avoid both high rise and urban sprawl by getting immigration back to the average of 70,000 pa as it was 24 years ago.'
We didn't hear about 'skilled labour shortages' then.
sighhhh its plain common sense! U dont need a degree to work that out!
Need to know how many ppl r going to leave us in what evyway that maybe v & deaths will be the high end
Only immigrants can improve Lithgow and penrith and whalan and mt druitt and airds
They never improve anything
Boomers helping boomers
First
I’m not sure you should be commenting on what we do here in Australia given you’re a foreigner now . Maybe you should start commenting on your adopted country Martin
An outside perspective can be valuable in any situation.
@@Andre_XX I said that tongue in cheek he is an Australian regardless of where he lives but I wouldn’t want to rely on his forecasts , he’s been predicting a housing crash since 2016 I’d hate to have held off based on his info ha ha
Why not put in Desal plants and grow to 100m. Old white fogeys will always say no