Bayesian Marketing Mix Models: State of the Art and their Future with Luca Fiaschi

Speakers: Thomas Wiecki, Luca Fiaschi and Alex Andorra
Event Description
This event is a discussion between Luca and Thomas about Bayesian modeling in online marketing with a special focus on Marketing Mix Models and Customer Lifetime Value models.
In this panel discussion, Luca Fiaschi shares his thoughts on the current state and the future of Bayesian data science in online marketing, based on many years of real-world experience leading teams at HelloFresh and Stitchfix. A special focus will be placed on Marketing Mix Models (MMM) and the work PyMC Labs has done with Luca during his time at HelloFresh. In addition, Customer Lifetime Value models play an ever more important role in marketing but remain stuck in old modeling approaches. We will discuss a potential way forward.
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction by Thomas
01:39 Luca Fiaschi introduces himself
02:37 Alex Andorra introduces himself
03:57 Attribution methods have multiple use cases across businesses
04:39 Analyze media models
05:23 Find Optimal Budget Allocation(What-if scenarios and optimization)
05:55 Forecasting
06:27 Most common attribution methods
11:02 Structure of a Media Mix Model
12:04 Saturation and Adstock functions
14:04 Advantages of Bayesian Media Mix Models
17:14 Bayesian MMM can be calibrated to ensure consistency with incrementality measurements
19:50 Challenges encountered when developing Hello Fresh’s model
24:36 PyMC Labs work with Hello Fresh to build the model
33:12 Comparing the Hello Fresh model with the other different frameworks
36:05 Business insights that can be derived from the Hierarchical Gaussian Processes model
40:10 Question: How can business people and Data science efforts be aligned in an organization?
44:23 Question: Have you considered introducing relationships between regressor variables
48:19 Question: To what level of confidence are you able to say that you are at a certain saturation level and can you use Bayesian methods to do that?
54:28 Question: Have you ever settled for Gaussian Random walk parameters over latent Gaussian Processes(GPs) for the sake of simplification or explainability?
59:19 Question: Media Mix Models suffer from multicollinearity, any advice?
1:02:14 Thank you and closing remarks
#ThomasWiecki #LucaFiaschi #BayesianMarketing #MarketingMixModels #Analytics #DataDriven #marketingroi #predictiveanalytics #MarketingEffectiveness #CustomerJourney
#marketingoptimization #DataScience #businessintelligence #StateOfTheArtMarketing
Resources
- www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/b...
- www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/r...
- www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/m...
About the speakers
Thomas Wiecki
Dr. Thomas Wiecki is an author of PyMC, the leading platform for statistical data science. To help businesses solve some of their trickiest data science problems, he assembled a world class team of Bayesian modelers founded PyMC Labs -- the Bayesian consultancy. He did his PhD at Brown University studying cognitive neuroscience.
Website: twiecki.io/
Luca Fiaschi
Dr. Luca Fiaschi is the Chief Data & AI Officer at Mistplay the leading loyalty platform for gamers. Luca specializes in leading applied research and machine learning teams at disruptive tech companies where he has a track managing significant tech investments in supply chain, marketing and digital product. Prior to Mistplay he has been VP Data HelloFresh, VP Machine Learning at Stitch Fix, Director of AdTech at Rocket Internet. Luca holds a PhD at Heidelberg University in Machine Learning and Computer Vision.
LinkedIn: / lfiaschi
Alex Andorra
By day, I’m a Bayesian modeler at the PyMC Labs consultancy.
By night, I don’t (yet) fight crime, but I’m an open-source enthusiast and core contributor to the awesome Python packages PyMC and ArviZ.
An always-learning statistician, I love building models and studying elections and human behavior. I also love Nutella a bit too much, but I don’t like talking about it - I prefer eating it.
Website: learnbayesstats.com/
Connecting with PyMC Labs
- LinkedIn: / pymc-labs
- Twitter: / pymc_labs
- TH-cam: / pymclabs
- Meetup: www.meetup.com/pymc-labs-onli...
- Eventbrite: www.eventbrite.com/o/pymc-lab...
Connecting with PyMC Open Source
- Q&A/Discussion: discourse.pymc.io
- Twitter: / pymc_devs
- LinkedIn: / pymc
- TH-cam: / pymcdevelopers
#bayesian #marketingstrategy