Thank you, Peter! Chinese didn't get any break through. There is nothing to worry about. We may need hundreds of years to catch up you guys. Take it easy!
The focus of a mobile phone is not how small its chip is, but its functionality and network speed. A 7nm phone can reach 5.5G speeds and can also make satellite calls. Isn’t this the biggest breakthrough? On the other hand, in the United States, even if the iPhone 15 uses a 3-nanometer chip, it will be useless because there is no 5G network in the United States. Why do I think so? Because I live in San Francisco, there are actually places where there is no network signal.
Has SF turned into that bad a 3rd world $hithole? I thought the needles and bum turds were pretty bad. I have 5g in Alabama and the poorest county in eastern WA had full 5g in the entire county....
What do you expect from a polisci major? He was foaming at the mouth from the thought of blocking mankind’s advancement for political gains. He can’t even admit that he was wrong
@@yeejlilys9742 someone needs to do a catalog of all of Peter's stuff. I have a strong feeling it's almost 90% wrong. (also in before someone says but He Predicted UkRAIne)
While I enjoy Peter’s data-driven perspectives, it is notable that every single take on China he has is negative. Very, very negative. I agree with plenty of them, but his bias means he can’t be considered a good faith actor on the topic of China. For some reason, many people want to be either sinophiles or China bashers.
There seems to be a complete disconnect between saying China doesn't have the skills to innovate and the fact that the world's top universities are full of Chinese students
100% agree. You can be critical of China and it's government, but to dismiss accomplishments and milestones that were made possible through the collective hard work of its people is a whole other thing. Kind of disgusting to be honest.
@@powerandpresence5290 By the viewers, as the US is waging a war against china, bashing china became good business, KOLs compete on bashing china skills&content to get traffic and traffic is money, Based on the views of his content , he could be making around half a million USD annually from TH-cam alone. every view is contributing to the bashing china business.
The real breakthrough is not so much this chip; other than one or two Korean components, this phone shows that China is able to do everything else in house without outsourcing from other countries. The breakthrough in a since is that China has its own ecosystem and can continue to develop and to product on its own without the United States cutting it off through sanctions.
I think you missed the part where the chip design that they fabricated was copied. The real test will be if they can actually design newer and better chips themselves. Something that they have yet to ever demonstrate.
This is not an expected result by US gov't, therefore "it's fake, stolen technology, high cost, bad quality..." are all natural reactions from western minds, totally understandable. I think if I were the one who invented semi-chips, and someone else later start to make the chips without my consent, I would be crying out loud and call them thieves as well 😂.
Not quite, almost all the equipment used to manufacture these chips are imported. I don't doubt China can develop its native equipment, but it will take decades at least. People don't understand how cutting edge semiconductor manufacturing is. It sits on the limit of human technology and knowledge. It's very hard for one country to possess all the expertise.
7nm chips are enough for most areas. The most consumed chips in the world are now 12nm and below. The same is true for most markets. 5nm chips are only used in smart flagship phones
@@dttth7192 The issue here is slowing down advanced AI research in China which requires the highest performing chips. That was a major motivating factor surrounding the US chip ban. The less powerful chips weren't the issue.
And 1000 years ago Peter Zeihan may say that the Chinese "fire arrow" using the early gunpowder was nothing but trash for being less useful than traditional bows and arrows.
@@yangshujian Peter may say paper and printing are irrelevant in today's digital world yet u.s treasury running their printing press non stop for years
I think Peter as do many others underestimate Chinese innovation capabilities.. a little old fashioned China can only copy stuff mentality coming through..
Something with der8auer and actually take a look at the chip with an electron microscope and se what is in it would be more interesting. It's insane what tech is needed to just see the stuff in the chip.
The 7nm chip is reverse engineered to a "bigger" node from a previous 5nm design they had. It's 7nm because China doesn't have access to EUV lithography, which would allow them to make smaller chips. But this is just the CPU. The big question is how Huawei - given the US embargo on tech exports to China - got access to RAM and NAND from SK Hynix, which adhered to the embargo!
@@icet6665 China aren't sour grapes, they just desperately want to prove everyone wrong. Since the sanctions only really started this year in full and the phone was obviously not made over the summer it's really nothing to do with sanctions. It'd be impressive if they come out with a new phone next year or the year after since it'd have to be better and would be greatly affected by sanctions.
@@skp8748DUV is not fit for manufacturing chips below 10nm gate length. It brings in lattice defects which make transistors extremely unreliable. Without access to EUV there will never be a sub 10nm chip in production.
Circumstances alter cases. A NEW departure requires reassessment of old ideas and opinions. Failure to do this is at the seat of most political problems worldwide.
While Apple is focusing on using 3nm chip for their new generation phone, Huawei is comfortable with 7nm but leaped forward with 5.5G using satellite signal for uninterrupted coverage, not even Elon Musk can do it...
While attaching a seperate 5G satellite network chip inside your phone may sound super good for marketing, if you do not have the 5G capable LEO satellites to support it, it is just a heater-battery-wasting paperweight.
50nM-20nM-10Nm-7nM factories still exist, and they are still pumping out chips of that era. No one is destroying factories for the next, latest chip. You can still get a Xeon Pentium or Celeron chip as a server chip, even though that architecturs are more than 20 years old. 90% of all the chips you may see on a circut board come from an era a decade old. It does not matter whether it is you keyboard and mouse, your smart fridge or your washing machine. Most chips are not new.
That's true yeah. Admittedly they do the much easier tasks that don't need state of the art performance. Still, it does cap you in that you can't improve performance easily any more.
You can't sell high end phones or laptop computers with those old chips because there are much better alternatives that are both faster and are using less power. Crucial for battery driven devices. Likely cars want as much low energy chips in their cars as well.
One issue is that China may not have access to replacement parts for the DUV equipment that they have. And if the sanctions continue and extend to that equipment as well then eventually they may not be able to build anything. They have yet to demonstrate the capability of creating the equipment required for chip fabrication and all of their current equipment is foreign purchased.
@@aruak321 I heard that China is coming out with domestic 28nm lithography machine later this year. Won't be surprised if they came up with 14nm next year.
Well said. I mean most of the weapons on the Ukrainian battlefield for example are from 70s - 90s technology. T-72 (1970s), T-80 (1980s), T90 (1990s), MIG-29 Jet (by the way a computer NII Argon-designed Ts100 was made in the Soviet Union in the 1980s). So yeah, and I can bet you a 2017 designed chip is way more advanced than anything from the 1980 anywhere.
Well sadly it is enough to build quite powerful ai accelerators. Remember, they don't have to be competitive, they just have to work, even at a super high price.
@@thorwaldjohanson2526 That's not how economics work. If it isn't cost effective, you can't have it en masse. That "super high price" is literally food off the table for chinese citizens, how long do you think the CCP can starve their people to squeeze out high tech until they revolt? China's not immune to revolution, despite the CCPs efforts, as even a glance at history will reveal.
Thanks to everyone who has commented on this. While I worked "in the field", I was actually in software and so I have limited knowledge about much of this. Thus, posts and comments like this are most helpful!
Then you don't work in the field. I'm an SWE now and was an EECE major and worked at Qualcomm for a couple years as an engineer. SWEs are absolutely clueless about hardware things.
I worked at ASML for a few months back in 2011. They were already developing Extreme Ultraviolet back then, so China may have had access to that information well before they were sanctioned out of the space. I will say that it's extremely difficult to get to those numbers (5nm and less), and building the lithography machines takes a huge amount of precision and attention to surprising details like how many oxygen atoms can get through the seals. It's crazy how precise these things have to be! Even if they stole the tech, it would be many years before they could perfect the manufacturing, and it would likely be old news by then.
@@independentvoter8710 Cosmic rays would pummel the ultra fine traces so probably not, maybe if you were within a hollowed out asteroid but by that point photolithography will be old news
@@peterseth3296They probably can do 5nm. Question is what kind of yield they can get, and how many masks they need to do the manufacturing. If Chinas solution to manufacturing chips is throwing 2-3 times as much money at every design they manufacture, it’s not very sustainable.
@@h9hkk6155 Yeah, exactly. Dude's been predicting China's imminent collapse since 2008. When he gets things wrong, he usually just moves on and hopes no one notices.
Semiconductor designs are incredibly complex, to put it lightly. There are kilometers of copper etchings for electrons to flow to each transistor gate. Intel has been working with the same design principles and concepts for decades, and they merely add instruction sets, memory, and far more logic and arithmetic to theirs. Nvidia, arguably the most interesting today, has been focusing on an all-big-die ever since Tesla. Tesla moved away from pixel pipelines and relied on shader cores that can be programmed for many different functions in the driver suite and firmware. These are concepts that are decades old, and much like the Soviet Union in the 60s and 70s, I don't believe they will be able to catch up. The manufacturing is impossible to replicate without trial and error, even with all the physics knowledge. They don't teach God-tier semiconductor designs at universities. For that knowledge, you'll have to learn from the major chip design firms for five or more years. Even then, there are thousands of engineers working on highly specialized sections that no one person can master. Maybe they can catch up by using AI. Who knows.
AI suck dicks when it comes to highly specialized knowledge. You would need hundreds of thousands of complex designs available online for AI to learn, and it's just not there.
even with AI they still need to master the production of the machines. They probably will be able to make high end chips one day, but it will take decades to catch up.
Deep UV is a problem which is why the industry has been trying to move to EUV since 2001 (when the industry knew they needed to get there asap) but it's decades behind and WAY over budget and it's still not even fully online. The real problem (which isn't explained in too much detail here) with Deep UV is that in order to get to smaller architectures your trips through the loop on the front end goes up exponentially so if you had something at 90 nm and it required 10 passes on the front end to litho and other areas through a fab to get front end complete and then to back end then every node you go down your trips to litho go up 2-4x in order to hit the new nm node. The REAL problem with that is that your construction time (per wafer) goes from ~6 weeks to 3-6 months or longer to get a chip out the back end of your fab (unsustainable over time and completely unprofitable unless a government is holding you up, which China is), so envision starting a wafer on January 1 and not having something complete to use until July 1 or even September 1, yea you can't produce much that way. The OTHER really big problem is that every trip through the litho/etch loops to get to the smaller nm nodes is another chance to have ANY error or anything go wrong to destroy or limit the wafers yield (number of chips/wafer that work) and that's why you see the industry trying to move from Deep UV to EUV asap, at least the big players are.
7nm is SOOO difficult. I work in semi and we've had to scrap our 7nm processes because we just couldn't produce a cost effective strategy. We're a leading industry supplier too. I'm skeptical of their ability to produce these chips at profitable rate. Without getting into details, I think the best we could get was 40%yield. The best of the best are having a hard time producing these chips. The process itself is so tight. PC, VPP issues galore!
Difficult, doable, but not economical. TSMC already did extensive DUV multi-patterning in 2017, waiting for delayed EUV machines. Slow, very low yield, expensive. EUV is far superior. Looks like China is still very far away from EUV. Why would they otherwise spend billions of usd ordering truckloads of DUV machines from ASML this year? ASML even upped their 2023 guidance bcs of the unexpected demand. Shows that yields are low and they don’t expect to have their own DUV’s or EUV’s anytime soon.
@@Post-it2363lol other news said china hoarded all nvidia AI gpus they could get hands on, causing similar spike in pricing and even in nvidia financials
Wonder if they'll do the same as right now, sell the crap to the Russians who have no other option and sell the ones passing the tests to the rest of the world.
Mr. Zeihan seems to be an all-round expert on everything China. But I don't need to watch his video to know his conclusion. Why can't he just say "China bad" to save everyone's time? Ya, I know. The ad money. Lol
@@pseudoscientist8010 Ahhh. The next question will be whether Huawei, or whoever that makes those chips in China, will stop its development right there and never proceed to the next level, ever. I guess Peter's answer would be a big "Yes". Let's see how it goes this time.
@@pseudoscientist8010 a chip, no but a computer to control water and fertilized may be useful to grow food in arid place and your source than china going into starvation ?
Yes, there's nothing to worry about. Looking at Raimondo's performance, I feel a little surprised. Your comfort can make Raimondo feel better, but I have a question. Huawei's domestic parts use 90% of its phones, and can the United States make smartphones with the same proportion of domestic parts? If possible, what is the cost?
Moore's law is dead. When they say 3nm, 5nm or 7nm it's just a marketing term now. The transisters are not really less than 7nm apart, but they've improved the process somewhat and market it as improved by calling it a smaller nm - it doesn't mean it really is that nm. We've reached a wall in physics and we're using architecture (more cores combined with software to optimize more cores) to improve performance now. It won't be hard for the Chinese to catch up considering we've hit a wall. More high end chips on the market is a good thing for the consumer.
I know a thing or two about tech. So I know that this is nothing but a political stunt. Those chips were made using ArFi DUV lithography machines from the Dutch company ASML, plus a number of other exquisite machines from Japan and US , all imporeted BEFORE the export controls. All these machines will come under new export controls from next year. Also, they used multi-patterning, which is economically unviable. So this is the last political stunt that Huawei can pull off. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is moving onto EUV and ever newer generation of chips.
Haha they are about to launch their own lithography machine at the end of this year. And the cherry on cake is that we know that Huawei has patented an EUV machine process (using a different light sourcing technique than ASML, so you can't say they've copied it). So I think there is no way the US can stop China in this field.
I found Huawei’s latest phone Mate 60 pro is overwhelmingly impressive as Huawei is able to build a 7nm chip that has the same power output of 5-3nm Chips from the competitors. Wow.
As usual the wider implications and analysis is sound but you're a bit off on the details. SMIC has had an ok 7nm node for a while now. It's main flaw is that the silicon cannot clock anywhere near as well as TSMC 7nm equivalent nodes but below a threshold it otherwise performs similarly. This makes it a perfectly competent node for mobile, server most military and data center chips. Huawei actually had a decent ARM server CPU fabed by SMIC as of 2019. China's semiconductor tech is sufficient that they could sustain military and industrial production even with sanctions on chips. What it cannot do well is high end consumer and cutting edge research like AI. Id argue however that their AI and similar research constraints are more in silicon design rather than lithography. Some common AI ASIC chips can be made on older nodes and work fine for machine learning but it's the IP within the chip itself that they lack rather than the fabrication process. DUV is still widely used, TSMCs first 7nm class node didn't use any EUV. EUV allowed TSMC to reduce the number of steps and the amount of defects. They discontinued DUV based 7nm production as far as I'm aware because the EUV versions were/are cheaper and more performant. DUV is still used on older nodes like 16nm and 28nm variants which still make up huge volume. The vast majority of semiconductors do not use even leading edge, let alone bleeding edge nodes. Bleeding edge like TSMCs N4 are insanely expensive and are only used by companies like Apple and Nvidia. The majority of products on the market are using 7nm class sillicon. TLDR china is very close if it hasn't already achieved self sufficiency when it comes to semiconductors for it's manufacturing and military sectors. It has been hamstrung when it comes to AI though and it won't be able to go much beyond 7nm in the forceeble future. EUV took decades and billions of dollars to develop. It was a joint effort of multiple governments and the biggest companies in the semiconductor space. It had been a joke that EUV was like nuclear fusion. It was first expected to come in the late 90s but took another 2 decades before it actually arrived. China did get one of ASMLs machines but they reportedly broke it trying to reverse engineer it.
RE: " TSMC 7nm equivalent nodes but below a threshold it otherwise performs similarly. This makes it a perfectly competent node for mobile, server most military" Most radiation hardened chips are in 100nm to 400nm range, not 7nm. Also, larger chips can better withstand extreme variance in temperature unlike consumer devices using sub-10nm chips. MESA fab at Sandia National Laboratories operates a 350nm process. SkyWater Foundry uses a 90nm process. Honeywell Aerospace uses 150nm process. VORAGO Technologies uses 130nm process.
I was told that we are way past the point of reverse engineering anything of value cos TECH has so many process steps that the end result tell you little of how to make it.
As someone who knows zero about chips but has tried to read as much as they can about it, that was what I came away with as well. The scale of the components and the tools, as well as the complexity of wfrs today make them impossible to reverse engineer or copy. The tech has to be learned and developed to be made. It would be like copying a DNA sequence without having the ability to build the microscopes necessary to even see the DNA strands to begin with.
In fact, we will support Huawei when it produces 14nm chips, but Huawei always exceeds our expectations. The performance of the domestic Kirin 9000s 7nm process is equivalent to that of the 5nm Snapdragon
It is really not. 7nm is 7nm. It will never be as fast as 5nm or 3nm. It is the difference between day and night. It has been a month since 60 pro out. This kind of tech specification is all over the place. Just google 60 pro chip. You will find one thing or two.
Performance is irrelevant if you can't manufacture with high yield and also generate profit by having massive global sales. China government is pouring money into Huawei, but for how long can they subsidize this money losing operation? Maybe not long enough!
Parts to maintain their fabs is going to hit hard when it comes to repairs… Really wonder how much it cost to make each chip for the new phones… I’m guessing to get to 7nm it required so much fab time per wafer that these chips costs are through the roof, along with most likely having a horrible yield of good working chips per wafer…
They can compensate for the cost of chip with other parts of the phones since China controls the supply chain.... what worries westerners and others chip companies is China will dump to the market cheap chip or force all companies in China use the chip and definitely will kneel down many chip makers outside China since China buyng almost 70 percent of world chip....
@Alexandre-sz2jb You should stop internetting until you can avoid bringing religion into a totally nonreligious conversation. Comment reported as spam.
Another advantage of Electron Lithography over Photo Lithography that Peter discusses is that when you want a new chip you download a program to the machine, no retooling. Most of the retooling that is discussed is on the Photo Mask machine where new geometry stencils are installed. Note different types of Deposition are used later in the process for all current types of chip manufacture. Eventually circuits as we know them today will not exist as an overlay but rather be part of the material at the atomic level.
Wouldn’t that make the material kind of limited in its adaptability to new programs if the actual computing ‘thing’ is the material itself? I know nothing about chips, I’m just visualizing an ‘overlay’ of circuits that we ‘paint’ onto a material, Fs like what you said, that the material itself provides the framework for the computing to happen
Sorry but this comment is very misleading. Electron Lithography (EBL or E-beam) is NOT the same as Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV). EBL is not used for wafer manufacturing at scale because it has extremely poor throughput. It effectively uses a single electron beam to draw a single shape on a single die. Consider that a modern wafer has dozens of dies with billions on top of billions of shapes in each die. Photolithography (including DUV and EUV) works by emitting light through a mask that splits the light and "writes" billions of shapes onto the entire wafer and every single die simultaneously. DUV requires "multi-patterning", at 10nm class and lower tech nodes, which effectively means it has to use several masks to write a single layer of shapes on the wafer. EUV can use a single mask and thus has much better throughput (although it's likely advanced chip fabs still use at least two masks for EUV to reduce line edge roughness). EBL, because it can write sub 10nm features with very high accuracy, is used to create the masks that litho uses as described above. There are also Multi-beam mask writers (new enough that there isn't an established acronym) that help increase accuracy and throughout of the mask production but still not on the scale required for wafer manufacturing.
It seems like a big win to me. Not to mention their new operating system. I believe they will end up surpassing the US in electronics. I also believe if I've heard correctly that Huawei own over 200 patents that we in the west must pay to use. I don't see China collapsing but I do think the US will.
At least PZ looked up DUV vs. EUV, although it seems he still doesn’t understand the difference. Having been working in the semi industry for 20 years, I don’t listen to PZ’s predictions in this area as he is clearly out of his depth.
Hi, Engineer here. The technology that Huawei used - they had that in 2018 :) It's a machine that blasts at193nm. It's very old. The newest machine that SMIC has like that was made in 2011... However, it can be upgraded with immersion to reach 7, even 5nm. This was something that SMIC had already achieved in 2018 - and it's puddlenuts... Yes, you can use that jalopy to make 7nm chips but the cost per wafer and yield per wafer will be ridiculous. I am betting all my property that SMIC are making that chip at a huge loss and it's subsidised by the Chinese government as a way for kickstarting their own supply-deman market system.
They will go beyond that. China will disperse their non modular chip manufacturing tech to anyone who is willing to pay, hence flipping the semiconductor manufacturing on its head. West had to spend all this brain power to make Lith machines modular to keep the knowledge centralized, this breakthrough from China poses the risk of dispersing chip manufacturing knowhow lot deeper into second tier countries for their domestic consumption. Its a great development for the consumers over all, but the writing is on the wall as far as direction of Tech growth being determined by US and west alone in coming years.
No companies including Chinese companies are allowed to do business with Huawei. The only exception is if you got a waiver from the US. Either SMIC got the waiver or they straight up violated. If it is the latter, expect even harsher sanctions!! No DUV machine or supply of parts?????
@@miraphycs7377 so how huawei bought 50 million kirins 9000s ? also you think smic will obey usa over china ? and how you know china didnt reverse engineering duv, euv ? or build their domestic duv, euv ?
it's not surpassing but not ordering from other companies like Qualcomm, Intel... as they can design and build their own chips.... without those orders, Qualcomm + others will have no money for their R&D for their new designs so they're pretty much done
Dude clearly you dont know what is happening, DUV tech can be scaled from 14nm to 7nm by multilayer masking, this gets the cost up because the the wafer needs multiple exposures, but the chinese caught up to State of the art 6 yrs ago in less that 3 yrs post sanctions. It is feasible to think that it with a more refined multi masking it could be scaled down even further even without EUV. For most military equipment 7nm is more than enough.
Ironic because TSMC had to abandon CHIPs act subsidies because US told them after construction started that they'd only get the money if they transferred all tech to the US.
China already has its own euv machine, which is said to be 1000 meters long and 1000 meters wide, it's Huge. It can make 1 nanometer chips. China doesn't need to build a 3-meter-long small euv machine, because China doesn't need to export them, China only needs them for itself.
while it is true, that the tech is 5-7 years behind, the tech components in military equip does usually not need the high tech stuff. 90 and 28nm works just fine here
I think the US doesn’t want China to be anywhere close to the first to apply AI to military systems which you can’t do with the larger chips. Shield AI’s hive mind concept that they are applying to drones and fixed wing is an example here.
@@erikm7608 The US is trying to get every edge it can, but if China ever moves to a war footing, they will completely blow us away in terms in industrial production. I don't know that slightly better automation will do much when being heavily outproduced.
@@costakeith9048 everyone thinks we live in unprecedented times. Do you know what the US’s production capacity and Army capabilities were ranked when we entered ww2? Spoiler alert, we were barely in the top 20… behind Romania. Development of industrial capacity is not a static situation. The US situation is far from ideal, but thinking China is anything but reliant on the inputs for its industrial capacity is just wrong.
I love my P30 lite. What an incredible little piece of stolen goods it is. 4 years old and still going strong, I'll have to give it a Viking funeral when it dies
You’ll be paying more than a price of the new iPhone 15 to spite… USA, Zeihan, common sense? I’m not saying the phone is bad, but it’s ugly and overpriced.
DUV has some drawbacks comparing to EUV, but also DUV has a lot of cost, and capacity strong point over EUV. Also even cutting edge chips do not use EUV for all the layers, only for a couple of them, and all other layers are made with DUV.
Semiconductor manufacturing is all about scale. DUV litho machines may be cheaper than EUV machines by a wide margin but you don't care too much about the fixed cost because semiconductor manufacturing profits are directly tied to wafer throughput. If you can increase your wafer throughput then paying a premium for EUV is totally worth it. This is especially true when you realize that, as you decrease feature size, DUV requires more and more multi patterning steps which decreases your throughput and increases wafer cost. Essentially, you don't care too much about multi-million dollar equipment costs when small changes in throughput has billion dollar impacts. So DUV definitely does not have a cost advantage at deep litho nodes. Of course, not all layers on a chip require the deepest litho that EUV excels at so yes, you still use DUV in those layers of metal where you don't need aggressive multipatterning.
@@chasecook3854 c'mon DUV is still used in cutting edge chips, not only because machines are cheaper, but they have lower operational costs and have a bigger capacity. Clown Zeihan is saying that DUV is something archaic and not useful, while only his predictions are not useful. If you want to know a thing or two about chips - go visit the Asianometry channel.
@@chasecook3854 All things are relative, a $50 chip within a $1000 phone going up in price by $25 might matter when margins are single digits, but doesn't when margins are $500. Apple spent billions buying 3nm chips from TSMC for barely any noticeable improvement over 5nm, again, when you're margins are high, it doesn't matter. The moment America started the tech war, it's no longer a matter of commercial competition and became a political cold war to the death. What matter now is Apple buys their chips from a Chinese breakaway province off China's coast and Huawei has full supply chain security. It might not matter now because China still allows Apple to buy their chips, but it takes just one order for Chinese military circling Taiwan daily to start enforcing physical export controls on their renegade province.
I think first smartphones with 7nm CPUs came out in 2019 (Apple)/2020 (Snapdragon). So it's closer than 2017 stated in the video. But it's not that close yet, if they won't be able to build new manufacturing node up to 5nm in the next 2 years.
Of course, their phone is a BREAKTHROUGH. People in China buying Huawei means the money invested stays with them all the time, and no money is invested on the iphone. They keep the money in China, and they also get to sell their phone to other countries who are interested.
another point that adds to Peter's pieces is that as important as a bogus 7 nanometer CPU, is that they had stockpiled now sanctioned hynix 3D NAND MEMORY chips which they have no chance at all to be able to make those. So without that it was no way they can make this phone and they won't be able to do it once that supply runs out which must be very limited. Also, I think what Peter is talking about regarding bending physics and light wavelengths is called multi-patterning, which Intel was doing and it took them many years of failure and high costs and lost the race the tsmc who was using euv from the get go.
@@scottanno8861They’re assembled in China. Apple also started assembling in India. All the critical high tech parts are manufactured outside of China. Although there are certainly very important parts of the supply chain that’s only in China, even for phones assembled in India. The company doing much of the assembly, Foxconn, is Taiwanese btw
Those nanometer numbers are just made-up, they don't mean anything. They used to mean something about 10 years ago it told you how far apart the transistors are to each other. Now the semiconductor companies just give It whatever number they think it should have. They do other tricks to get more transistor density and then give it a lower number.
@@scottanno8861the CPU is produced in Taiwan. They cannot get the technology from Taiwan. If they were to invade Taiwan the equipment would be destroyed.
Apple emphasized its ecosystem, how user friendly the iOS is when compared to Android. Apple never compares hardware with Android. Now Apple starts to compare 3nm chip or 7nm chip? Apple fans won't pay for this because the user will not feel any difference. It is just some marketing strategy to make you pay more.
@2:38 "So it is the penultimate expression of what the Chinese can do . . ." Penultimate means 'the second from the last' (not the 'highest achievement or something similar). Just a thought.
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The great think about the 7nn chinese chip is that the chinese market will not anymore be apple centred, which sends more money to research and closes the gap even more.
So know where Peter got his info about the Kirin 9000S chip used in the Huawei Mate 60. But he's not entirely correct. Yes it's 7nn. But in terms of performance is about on par with a phone from 2020/21. Other aspects of the phone are impressive. The camera matches Samsung and iPhone just about. And their 5g is about 20% ahead. So while not a significant breakthrough. It's a rather impressive great nonetheless. And just before the ban they were ready to surpass Samsung in the mobile space. They're highly innovative. I won't debate the political side of thing because I am not adequately informed to do so. But this is a really big and telling accomplishment for the company. It cannot be ignored or downplayed as Peter and so many others are doing. The concern is not about the phone but the fact that they might have enough momentum to go past the Korean and American tech giants with one hand tied behind their backs in a few years. Of course we'll see how it plays out in time.
If the Chinese Communist party had left them alone then Huawei would have probably become the biggest. The CCP should have just quit with their shenanigans and they wouldn't be having this problem. By the way we're not going to just allow a Communist dictatorship that doesn't even allow basic human rights to become the leader of the Free world. It's just not going to happen and virtually nobody wants it, unless they are Chinese or retarded. This government does not even allow their citizens to have access to the full world wide Web, and they have some bizarre social credit score that they enforce on their citizens with brutal efficiency. So no they don't get to take over our position and get in a position where they can tell everybody what they're going to do and what they're not going to do. If you think America's bad you just let Xi Jinping be the one calling the shots and see how that works out. This same government brought in tanks and machine-gunned college protesters in the fucking city park because they wanted freedom. This wasn't really that long ago. Some of the idiots running our country said that if we allowed China to become prosperous they would become free and respect human rights. They didn't and if anything they got worse. Thank God the US government finally woke up and realized how bad they were fucking up by allowing this. You know their government gets on TV in China and talks about destroying the United States right?
@@letsRegulateSociopaths That's overstating things. Since the Chinese undercut Western manufacturers and came to dominate the solar industry, there have certainly been innovations out of China. And of all the inverters (that take DC energy from panels and ouput AC energy) that we've used from a variety of global sources, the best reliability and performance have come from... Huawei. That said, national security trumps all, and Xi's agressiveness against the US and his neighbors have made this bed that unfortunately his whole country has to sleep in. Look around--the world is rearming for war. Nobody--but nobody--wants to be under China's thumb.
China, the world leader in cutting edge tech innovation while finally cut off from more IP theft? Riiiiight. Say, have you seen this bridge I've got for sale in northern Canada?
I _hate_ analysis like this. A backhanded, instinctive dismissal of an adversary is the surest path to getting your guts handed to you on a platter. Do not underestimate what this phone represents. Do not be the dude spouting feel-good'isms for its own sake. Peter, you need to be a lot more careful when you talk about areas you know nothing about. What you say in the video is true in isolation and on the individual technical points, but misses on the conclusion altogether. It's like dismissing a wholly Chinese made car because the wheels are from a model 4 years old and the entertainment system is hard to use. The key takeaway from this phone is that it is designed and implement almost entirely within the Chinese ecosystem itself. This is including the really hard to do, high-value, high-integration mixed signal subsystems like the 5G modem. To give you context, this is something only essentially Qualcomm provides (well, not anymore.) This is something that both Apple and Intel has failed to do even given the massive investments they've poured into it. This phone represents self-sufficiency on all the aspects that matter. The sanctions have always been just a holding action. This says it has not worked well as hoped, and is now almost failed.
PZ used to work for Stratfor, a think tank. They get their conclusions from their donors and do their “geopolitical analysis” to get to those conclusions. Stratfor’s founder George Friedman wrote a book called “The Coming War with Japan” in 1991 when Japan was considered our main competitor.
Just did some research. Huawei's new 7nm chip is utilizing a different tech stack from what TSMC used in 2018 with DUV. "TSMC did not use wafer-to-wafer bonding when they manufactured 7nm chips using DUV...none of these processes used wafer-to-wafer bonding, as they were based on single-wafer fabrication." --AI Copilot "According to TechInsights, the Kirin 9000S SoC consists of two dies stacked together using wafer-to-wafer bonding. There are no other phones that use chip which uses wafer-to-wafer bonding, as this technology is still relatively new and challenging. The Huawei Mate 60 Pro is the first smartphone to use this technology for its system-on-chip (SoC), which is the Kirin 9000S." --AI Copilot
The last line. "Sacrifice their position on the altar of ego." I swear the Asian concept of "face" is a massive weakness. Some (Xi) will literally do anything to the point of self destruction just to appear to save face.
@@powershift2025 Really.. damage their reputation??? I see China gaining more and more allies yearly..and West losing more and more allies.. You guys are just dipping your head in the sand with fake wins
One thing to consider is that these "nm" terms are only marketing. There was a time when it meant the gate dimensions. But for close to a decade now, it is a mere indication of supposed performance and density. But each company has it's own technical specifications, that can vary widely. This "7nm" from China might as well have specs comparable to "10nm" for all we know. Or even worse. It's not like China has ever made stuff up, trying to pretend they are more advanced than what they really are.
History is always surprisingly similar. Apple is like Nokia back in the day. Nokia is not enterprising and does not believe in Apple at all. Needless to say the subsequent results.
He just channels the "China bad" sentiment (among other such sentiments such as "Russia bad") that the mainstream media instills in the general public on orders of the ruling elite.
Even just 90nm is better than any chips on the market before 2003. So that is plenty for laser or gps or tercom guided weapons, Phased antenna array radars and drones with digitally encrypted comunications.
Anyone who may be duped into thinking Zeihan is legit, just go back and watch or read anything he had about COVID, masks. He thought the whole world was going to die. I wouldn't be surprised if he scrubbed it from his channel already. Like everything else he says, it's a real credibility killer
Why do you think the next round of sanctions are gonna be somehow "lighter"? No companies including Chinese companies are allowed to do business with Huawei. The only exception is if you got a waiver from the US. Either SMIC got the waiver or they straight up violated. If it is the latter, expect even harsher sanctions!! No DUV machine or supply of parts?????
I guess we know why Peter is in Phoenix, as he has obviously just done a deep dive master-class into semiconductor tech, which has a long history in the Arizona desert.
Extreme hot weather, ample supply of brain power enhancing substances, in liquid or powder form, can do wonder to you perception of the world around you. I bet he met the ultra intelligent being from Planet X-1-1-91-Z.
currently in missouri. walked outside this morning and it was cool enough for a hoodie just wanted to rub that in. i lived in tempe and scottsdale for a while so i feel your current pain.
Unfortunately, Huawei did not use EUV, they used DUV, using several masks to achieve this feat and these chips are as good as Qualconn’s chips. This is because the nanometer numbers are more marketing than the lithography itself. But yes, they achieved this by hiring staff from TSMC.
@@SuperMukama I know the China can pay more than US$500.000 per year for any engineer with all expenses included if you from the semiconductor sector. It's a good opportunity from engineers.
Love Peter! But at the half it's Economic Resilience 3, Peter Z 0 with Germany Surviving gas cutoff, Russia keeping production going and the Chinese at 7 nanometers. "Never bet against economic resilience"
With all due respect sir, this was an incredibly misguided and ill-informed diatribe against another country's incredible accomplishment. I'm not pro-Chinese government, but I'm pro consumer technology and this is a huge win for consumers. Now that China has the know-how to develop their own chips, if they can mass-produce them at a much more affordable price, that can only be beneficial to all of civilization. If you weren't so prejudiced, you'd realize that. Your comments just reek of xenophobic and "poor loser" sentiments that are quite frankly off-putting. As someone who is in the tech industry, I work with a lot of Chinese engineers and they are incredibly intelligent, and most of all, they are VERY hard working. So it would serve you well in the future not to underestimate the Chinese because their work ethic alone is enough to yield miraculous results as you've just seen. I wouldn't be surprised if we see them mass produce these 7nm chips and they're likely already working on 5nm chips right now as we speak. To downplay what is a huge milestone in the tech industry is a really terrible look on your part. It's not such a terrible thing for another country to be able to develop their own chips, so I'm not sure why you're framing it that way? It's not like the universe revolves around the US and they're the only ones predestined to have access to these chips.
His takes reek of american arrogance. Whenever he's wrong, he doesn't admit it, he moves the goal post or does mental gymnastics. As u say, the chinese are extremely intelligent and hard working. This breakthrough is no joke. They will soon lead the tech world/market and there a many westerners who have trouble wrapping their heads around that.
Chinese are getting yield of 50 percent whereas Taiwan gets 90 percent yield. Now chinese arent getting any new machines to improve their yield. They'll stop manufacturing very soon as soon as their existing fabs breakdown 😂
@@IOFLOOD China is way smarter than your West..or else..how you think China can be so advanced in mere 30 years.. When China puts out something.. they already know your West will react with hostilities, any kid can figure that out.. Don't you think they have backup plans etc??
I don't care if they can make a 2017 level smartphone. I care if they can use it to make military electronics comparable to that seen in the M1A2 SEPV3 or the F22/F35 Can they?
Not even close. Actually, not even close to being not even close. The PLA's only job is to protect the Communist dictatorship, which means fighting against unarmed civilians, and even then it's a close match.
Seeing as how it is a CPU, and most military technology that isn't optics and EW packages is from the 80's...most likely. Even if it wasn't as powerful, there have been multi-core processing technologies for a while now. So even if the chip isn't just as good, working in tandem with more of them still puts them on par with something modern. Will it be more bulky and harder to work with? Sure. That's never stopped a military though.
Of course they can make military electronics that rival the F-22. That's old tech, and military equipment doesn't require chips that sophisticated, anyway. Besides, the CCP already has all the data and blueprints for the F-22 and F-35.
it is not for f22 or f35 but for drone, a super computer able to manage drone or for electronic war is useful, just imagine if they blind satellite or use swarm drone against defense system
Hey Peter, I'm the guy you passed in the PHX airport yesterday who gave you a funny look. Couldn't believe it was you, as I was just telling my shuttle driver all about your videos! PS, you are taller in real life than you look on your selfie vids. 😊
To produce 7nm semiconductor chips via using DUV machines requires multiple patterning which will increase the costs (more masks to be used) and lower the yield rate (according to some sources, these Chinese 7nm chips came with the yield rate lower than 20% which makes it at least 4 times more expensive)
Only idiots will believe the yield is 20%😂 The mate60pro is 1000 RMB CHEAPER than the mate50pro! Only idiots will drop 1000 Yuan when a SoC rise 4-5 times more expensive.
The production process needing more patterning also increases how many steps you need to produce the final chip, something that obviously also makes the product more expensive. One can get away with such price increases to an extent, as initially chips were really cheap. But at such low yields you'd start running out of wiggle room. I suppose other component costs coming down might let one still drop prices a bit though, if for instance the batteries got cheaper.
What is important is that yes, somehow the Chinese managed to make a chip.. but fast forward 20 years. Where do you think China will be vs the developed world? Progress doesn't stop. Unless you are cut out of the loop. This has huge ramifications that plays out over decades, not months.
LOL China *is* the developed world. If you think China is backward you're a couple of decades out of date. And they won't be "out of the loop". The world is bifurcating, the West and Japan vs. everyone else. The everyone else is way, way bigger than the West plus Japan. In population, resources, technical work force and industrial capacity.
He is definitely one of the best story telling person I've ever listened on TH-cam or Podcast. I always think him as the improved version of Gordan Chang as his theory of China collapse is more interesting😊
Chineseum quality chips. Big, big, big surprise. 50 Cent Army will be pounding their little chests all over this video and other western media. Pooh bear getting desperate.
I remember back in the day when super computers were just coming out China surprised everyone by stringing a bunch of computers together and made one themselves. They are like the Genii in stargate Atlantis.
Im going to call this now, sometime in the next 6 months, someone is going to crack this phone open and put the chip under a microscope, and discover its actually a 9nm chip and they were just lying about it being 7nm
@@icet6665 must be using a Huawei phone that dosnt have the functionality to turn off caps 🤔 or maybe your yelling in a despreate attempt to be believed hard too tell .... oo well I hope they pay you well 🙂
Peter, hanging out across the street from my wife's office! Enjoy Phoenix, but you should schedule your trips here outside of the July (June) through September window.
You don't need tiny nodes to make the chips needed to make guided missiles. See people experimenting making their own drones and rockets - they aren't using anything close to state of the art.
90nm is sufficient for guided missiles which the Chinese can already produce for at least a decade. Military applications don’t need cutting edge silicon. In fact older generation is preferred for reliability.
He certainly makes US people feel happy and less depression, well done and keep going.
Ekwkwkekekekek just make sometime happy
It's all facts
Can‘t believe how petty you are.
@@JK_7899 not really
you think americans really even think about china? I bought an iphone i could care less about hoooway or china.
Thank you, Peter! Chinese didn't get any break through. There is nothing to worry about. We may need hundreds of years to catch up you guys. Take it easy!
Why do you have to worry? The world has to progress. Stifling progress just to be number one is not beneficial.
lol, always wanna catch up?
@@Keyman135 zhan hu?
Please. This guys predictions have been blow apart, again. He's coping hard.
怀疑此人是钓鱼的，他大概连新机都没摸过。这么一说，底下就会有人把华为的技术给他讲的明明白白，趁机窃取咱们的技术细节。
The focus of a mobile phone is not how small its chip is, but its functionality and network speed. A 7nm phone can reach 5.5G speeds and can also make satellite calls. Isn’t this the biggest breakthrough? On the other hand, in the United States, even if the iPhone 15 uses a 3-nanometer chip, it will be useless because there is no 5G network in the United States. Why do I think so? Because I live in San Francisco, there are actually places where there is no network signal.
Peter is just a showman who never admits he is wrong. He is actually wrong for almost everything.
Has SF turned into that bad a 3rd world $hithole? I thought the needles and bum turds were pretty bad. I have 5g in Alabama and the poorest county in eastern WA had full 5g in the entire county....
What do you expect from a polisci major? He was foaming at the mouth from the thought of blocking mankind’s advancement for political gains. He can’t even admit that he was wrong
@DevWithCode SOUR GRAPES
@@yeejlilys9742 someone needs to do a catalog of all of Peter's stuff. I have a strong feeling it's almost 90% wrong. (also in before someone says but He Predicted UkRAIne)
While I enjoy Peter’s data-driven perspectives, it is notable that every single take on China he has is negative. Very, very negative. I agree with plenty of them, but his bias means he can’t be considered a good faith actor on the topic of China. For some reason, many people want to be either sinophiles or China bashers.
There seems to be a complete disconnect between saying China doesn't have the skills to innovate and the fact that the world's top universities are full of Chinese students
He is paid to do so.
@@AB-fi5jt OK. By whom?
100% agree. You can be critical of China and it's government, but to dismiss accomplishments and milestones that were made possible through the collective hard work of its people is a whole other thing. Kind of disgusting to be honest.
@@powerandpresence5290 By the viewers, as the US is waging a war against china, bashing china became good business, KOLs compete on bashing china skills&content to get traffic and traffic is money, Based on the views of his content , he could be making around half a million USD annually from TH-cam alone. every view is contributing to the bashing china business.
The real breakthrough is not so much this chip; other than one or two Korean components, this phone shows that China is able to do everything else in house without outsourcing from other countries. The breakthrough in a since is that China has its own ecosystem and can continue to develop and to product on its own without the United States cutting it off through sanctions.
I think you missed the part where the chip design that they fabricated was copied. The real test will be if they can actually design newer and better chips themselves. Something that they have yet to ever demonstrate.
This is not an expected result by US gov't, therefore "it's fake, stolen technology, high cost, bad quality..." are all natural reactions from western minds, totally understandable. I think if I were the one who invented semi-chips, and someone else later start to make the chips without my consent, I would be crying out loud and call them thieves as well 😂.
Not quite, almost all the equipment used to manufacture these chips are imported. I don't doubt China can develop its native equipment, but it will take decades at least. People don't understand how cutting edge semiconductor manufacturing is. It sits on the limit of human technology and knowledge. It's very hard for one country to possess all the expertise.
7nm chips are enough for most areas. The most consumed chips in the world are now 12nm and below. The same is true for most markets. 5nm chips are only used in smart flagship phones
@@dttth7192 The issue here is slowing down advanced AI research in China which requires the highest performing chips. That was a major motivating factor surrounding the US chip ban. The less powerful chips weren't the issue.
3,000 years ago there were probably Peter Zeihans explaining away China's ability to make high quality bronze tools.
This guy is sour grape and self proclaim expert.
And 1000 years ago Peter Zeihan may say that the Chinese "fire arrow" using the early gunpowder was nothing but trash for being less useful than traditional bows and arrows.
Peter kind of expert is doom for western civilise.
@@laosasean8482 him for Gordon Chang would make a perfect couple
@@yangshujian Peter may say paper and printing are irrelevant in today's digital world yet u.s treasury running their printing press non stop for years
Now I want Peter and Asianometry collab.
Would be awesome ❤
I think Peter as do many others underestimate Chinese innovation capabilities.. a little old fashioned China can only copy stuff mentality coming through..
lol . this guy is an propagandist troll. unlike asianometry
Something with der8auer and actually take a look at the chip with an electron microscope and se what is in it would be more interesting. It's insane what tech is needed to just see the stuff in the chip.
@@skp8748still watching his channel lmao
The 7nm chip is reverse engineered to a "bigger" node from a previous 5nm design they had. It's 7nm because China doesn't have access to EUV lithography, which would allow them to make smaller chips.
But this is just the CPU. The big question is how Huawei - given the US embargo on tech exports to China - got access to RAM and NAND from SK Hynix, which adhered to the embargo!
Probably the SK hynix components are from older stocks before they implemented a ban, but who knows.
LOL SOUR GRAPES
They have DUV
@@icet6665 China aren't sour grapes, they just desperately want to prove everyone wrong. Since the sanctions only really started this year in full and the phone was obviously not made over the summer it's really nothing to do with sanctions. It'd be impressive if they come out with a new phone next year or the year after since it'd have to be better and would be greatly affected by sanctions.
@@skp8748DUV is not fit for manufacturing chips below 10nm gate length. It brings in lattice defects which make transistors extremely unreliable. Without access to EUV there will never be a sub 10nm chip in production.
>Spends years saying it's literally impossible for China to go below 90nm
>China is now 1 node behind the current cutting edge.
>Moves goal posts.
Circumstances alter cases. A NEW departure requires reassessment of old ideas and opinions. Failure to do this is at the seat of most political problems worldwide.
The grape is so sour, I can taste it from far away through the computer screen.
Even when Peter is in a flat city, he finds a way to speak at altitude.
The views must go on!
Phoenix is pretty much surrounded by mountains.
@actionjksn yeah but you'll burst into flames if you ever climb them.
@@norwegianblue2017 Only in the summer.
peter: china can only make 90nm chip. no worry.
2 month later china: here is 7nm chip.😂
While Apple is focusing on using 3nm chip for their new generation phone, Huawei is comfortable with 7nm but leaped forward with 5.5G using satellite signal for uninterrupted coverage, not even Elon Musk can do it...
While attaching a seperate 5G satellite network chip inside your phone may sound super good for marketing, if you do not have the 5G capable LEO satellites to support it, it is just a heater-battery-wasting paperweight.
@@DaxSass It certainly is a waste, I have seen a couple of Chinese trying out the satellite connection and they couldn't get one.
Rubbish talk
@@RyoMassaki
Apple is not thou , see Apple 10 nm
50nM-20nM-10Nm-7nM factories still exist, and they are still pumping out chips of that era. No one is destroying factories for the next, latest chip. You can still get a Xeon Pentium or Celeron chip as a server chip, even though that architecturs are more than 20 years old. 90% of all the chips you may see on a circut board come from an era a decade old. It does not matter whether it is you keyboard and mouse, your smart fridge or your washing machine. Most chips are not new.
That's true yeah. Admittedly they do the much easier tasks that don't need state of the art performance. Still, it does cap you in that you can't improve performance easily any more.
You can't sell high end phones or laptop computers with those old chips because there are much better alternatives that are both faster and are using less power.
Crucial for battery driven devices.
Likely cars want as much low energy chips in their cars as well.
Zilog still makes the Z80 CPU.
One issue is that China may not have access to replacement parts for the DUV equipment that they have. And if the sanctions continue and extend to that equipment as well then eventually they may not be able to build anything. They have yet to demonstrate the capability of creating the equipment required for chip fabrication and all of their current equipment is foreign purchased.
@@aruak321 I heard that China is coming out with domestic 28nm lithography machine later this year. Won't be surprised if they came up with 14nm next year.
What's may be most concerning is that a chip equivalent to a smartphone from 2017 is more than sufficient for running intelligent munitions
But not AI advances.
Well said.
I mean most of the weapons on the Ukrainian battlefield for example are from 70s - 90s technology. T-72 (1970s), T-80 (1980s), T90 (1990s), MIG-29 Jet (by the way a computer NII Argon-designed Ts100 was made in the Soviet Union in the 1980s). So yeah, and I can bet you a 2017 designed chip is way more advanced than anything from the 1980 anywhere.
Well sadly it is enough to build quite powerful ai accelerators. Remember, they don't have to be competitive, they just have to work, even at a super high price.
@@thorwaldjohanson2526 That's not how economics work. If it isn't cost effective, you can't have it en masse. That "super high price" is literally food off the table for chinese citizens, how long do you think the CCP can starve their people to squeeze out high tech until they revolt? China's not immune to revolution, despite the CCPs efforts, as even a glance at history will reveal.
aren't these just old hoarded chips with a fake label stuck on
With 2017 technology as you said, HW can have satellite communication. I can’t wait to see what they will have with the latest chip technology.
Not long when it reaches 5nm and outperform today's experimental 3nm products.
A Chinese saying: Friends help us to make small progresses; but our enemies will force us to make great achievements.
Thanks to everyone who has commented on this. While I worked "in the field", I was actually in software and so I have limited knowledge about much of this. Thus, posts and comments like this are most helpful!
Your welcome bub and here's a cyber karma cookie for the chips
🍪 🏅
@@WackadoodleMalarkey Why, thanks! Here's an upvote for you!
peter does not know what he is talking about. 😂😂😂😂😂
@@tocreatee3585 Having read the other comments here, I can safely conclude that you're projecting.
Then you don't work in the field.
I'm an SWE now and was an EECE major and worked at Qualcomm for a couple years as an engineer. SWEs are absolutely clueless about hardware things.
Starting to think peter is one of those guys not taking the Chinese threat seriously.
starting to think drifting
Just a sponsored liar
Exactly. They can cure cancer and he'll find a way to dismiss it. Luckily he's just a mouthpiece
@@iTuber012 cure cancer 🤣
He's a policy advisor
I worked at ASML for a few months back in 2011. They were already developing Extreme Ultraviolet back then, so China may have had access to that information well before they were sanctioned out of the space. I will say that it's extremely difficult to get to those numbers (5nm and less), and building the lithography machines takes a huge amount of precision and attention to surprising details like how many oxygen atoms can get through the seals. It's crazy how precise these things have to be! Even if they stole the tech, it would be many years before they could perfect the manufacturing, and it would likely be old news by then.
How many Chinese enegineers work at ASML? 60%? Most designers in top american companies are Chinese.
Your mention of the problem of oxygen got me thinking about something. Would chip development be more efficient if done in the vacuum of space?
@@independentvoter8710 Cosmic rays would pummel the ultra fine traces so probably not, maybe if you were within a hollowed out asteroid but by that point photolithography will be old news
Keep underestimating China lol China will slap ur face again 👋🏽
@@peterseth3296They probably can do 5nm. Question is what kind of yield they can get, and how many masks they need to do the manufacturing.
If Chinas solution to manufacturing chips is throwing 2-3 times as much money at every design they manufacture, it’s not very sustainable.
Peter explaining why his 28nm prediction was wrong…..
Some feel they were just hoarding old chips for years.
As he is always wrong with his predictions 😂😂😂
@@h9hkk6155 Yeah, exactly. Dude's been predicting China's imminent collapse since 2008. When he gets things wrong, he usually just moves on and hopes no one notices.
He will continue to be wrong because China's domestic DUV is almost complete. The localized EUV has made great progress in localization.
😂😂coping now
Semiconductor designs are incredibly complex, to put it lightly. There are kilometers of copper etchings for electrons to flow to each transistor gate. Intel has been working with the same design principles and concepts for decades, and they merely add instruction sets, memory, and far more logic and arithmetic to theirs. Nvidia, arguably the most interesting today, has been focusing on an all-big-die ever since Tesla. Tesla moved away from pixel pipelines and relied on shader cores that can be programmed for many different functions in the driver suite and firmware. These are concepts that are decades old, and much like the Soviet Union in the 60s and 70s, I don't believe they will be able to catch up. The manufacturing is impossible to replicate without trial and error, even with all the physics knowledge. They don't teach God-tier semiconductor designs at universities. For that knowledge, you'll have to learn from the major chip design firms for five or more years. Even then, there are thousands of engineers working on highly specialized sections that no one person can master.
Maybe they can catch up by using AI. Who knows.
great insights
AI suck dicks when it comes to highly specialized knowledge. You would need hundreds of thousands of complex designs available online for AI to learn, and it's just not there.
That's one point of view.
even with AI they still need to master the production of the machines. They probably will be able to make high end chips one day, but it will take decades to catch up.
Don't they need even smaller chips to get to AI progress?
Deep UV is a problem which is why the industry has been trying to move to EUV since 2001 (when the industry knew they needed to get there asap) but it's decades behind and WAY over budget and it's still not even fully online. The real problem (which isn't explained in too much detail here) with Deep UV is that in order to get to smaller architectures your trips through the loop on the front end goes up exponentially so if you had something at 90 nm and it required 10 passes on the front end to litho and other areas through a fab to get front end complete and then to back end then every node you go down your trips to litho go up 2-4x in order to hit the new nm node. The REAL problem with that is that your construction time (per wafer) goes from ~6 weeks to 3-6 months or longer to get a chip out the back end of your fab (unsustainable over time and completely unprofitable unless a government is holding you up, which China is), so envision starting a wafer on January 1 and not having something complete to use until July 1 or even September 1, yea you can't produce much that way. The OTHER really big problem is that every trip through the litho/etch loops to get to the smaller nm nodes is another chance to have ANY error or anything go wrong to destroy or limit the wafers yield (number of chips/wafer that work) and that's why you see the industry trying to move from Deep UV to EUV asap, at least the big players are.
Does he use the escalator or hike the stairs?
So is this chip process not practical for filling their chip manufacturing needs?
and then like superman goes intro closet and quickly changes out of hiking kit and into business suit...taaadaa...
7nm is SOOO difficult. I work in semi and we've had to scrap our 7nm processes because we just couldn't produce a cost effective strategy. We're a leading industry supplier too. I'm skeptical of their ability to produce these chips at profitable rate. Without getting into details, I think the best we could get was 40%yield. The best of the best are having a hard time producing these chips. The process itself is so tight. PC, VPP issues galore!
Difficult, doable, but not economical. TSMC already did extensive DUV multi-patterning in 2017, waiting for delayed EUV machines. Slow, very low yield, expensive. EUV is far superior.
Looks like China is still very far away from EUV. Why would they otherwise spend billions of usd ordering truckloads of DUV machines from ASML this year? ASML even upped their 2023 guidance bcs of the unexpected demand. Shows that yields are low and they don’t expect to have their own DUV’s or EUV’s anytime soon.
@@Post-it2363lol other news said china hoarded all nvidia AI gpus they could get hands on, causing similar spike in pricing and even in nvidia financials
@@Post-it2363 Answer , China invent Ultra Purple Light used on DUV , one light source control 40 DUV machines. How about it ?
Wonder if they'll do the same as right now, sell the crap to the Russians who have no other option and sell the ones passing the tests to the rest of the world.
Luckily for you guys the demand for 22nm, 14nm, and specialty analog nodes is rising rapidly.
Mr. Zeihan seems to be an all-round expert on everything China. But I don't need to watch his video to know his conclusion. Why can't he just say "China bad" to save everyone's time? Ya, I know. The ad money. Lol
He basically said China would be sent back to Stone Age last October. And now he said the chip is "only" as good as 2017 model LMAO
In the next decade. Explain how a 7 nm chip stops starvation?
@@pseudoscientist8010 Ahhh. The next question will be whether Huawei, or whoever that makes those chips in China, will stop its development right there and never proceed to the next level, ever. I guess Peter's answer would be a big "Yes". Let's see how it goes this time.
@@pseudoscientist8010 a chip, no
but a computer to control water and fertilized may be useful to grow food in arid place
and your source than china going into starvation ?
Sounds suspiciously like cope Peter
Yes, there's nothing to worry about. Looking at Raimondo's performance, I feel a little surprised. Your comfort can make Raimondo feel better, but I have a question. Huawei's domestic parts use 90% of its phones, and can the United States make smartphones with the same proportion of domestic parts? If possible, what is the cost?
Moore's law is dead. When they say 3nm, 5nm or 7nm it's just a marketing term now. The transisters are not really less than 7nm apart, but they've improved the process somewhat and market it as improved by calling it a smaller nm - it doesn't mean it really is that nm. We've reached a wall in physics and we're using architecture (more cores combined with software to optimize more cores) to improve performance now. It won't be hard for the Chinese to catch up considering we've hit a wall. More high end chips on the market is a good thing for the consumer.
I know a thing or two about tech. So I know that this is nothing but a political stunt. Those chips were made using ArFi DUV lithography machines from the Dutch company ASML, plus a number of other exquisite machines from Japan and US , all imporeted BEFORE the export controls. All these machines will come under new export controls from next year. Also, they used multi-patterning, which is economically unviable. So this is the last political stunt that Huawei can pull off. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is moving onto EUV and ever newer generation of chips.
How about smee?
Enjoy your deficient knowledge
Thanks for the insight.
Haha they are about to launch their own lithography machine at the end of this year. And the cherry on cake is that we know that Huawei has patented an EUV machine process (using a different light sourcing technique than ASML, so you can't say they've copied it). So I think there is no way the US can stop China in this field.
Keep coping... development in technology should be celebrated. But for Westerners technology is only exclusive for them.
I found Huawei’s latest phone Mate 60 pro is overwhelmingly impressive as Huawei is able to build a 7nm chip that has the same power output of 5-3nm Chips from the competitors. Wow.
Not going to do any research but flag this sus...
Whatever.
Lol
i dont see where youre getting that
@@OmarBenjumea yes, it is called “Wo Kao”. 😜
As usual the wider implications and analysis is sound but you're a bit off on the details. SMIC has had an ok 7nm node for a while now. It's main flaw is that the silicon cannot clock anywhere near as well as TSMC 7nm equivalent nodes but below a threshold it otherwise performs similarly. This makes it a perfectly competent node for mobile, server most military and data center chips. Huawei actually had a decent ARM server CPU fabed by SMIC as of 2019.
China's semiconductor tech is sufficient that they could sustain military and industrial production even with sanctions on chips. What it cannot do well is high end consumer and cutting edge research like AI. Id argue however that their AI and similar research constraints are more in silicon design rather than lithography. Some common AI ASIC chips can be made on older nodes and work fine for machine learning but it's the IP within the chip itself that they lack rather than the fabrication process.
DUV is still widely used, TSMCs first 7nm class node didn't use any EUV. EUV allowed TSMC to reduce the number of steps and the amount of defects. They discontinued DUV based 7nm production as far as I'm aware because the EUV versions were/are cheaper and more performant. DUV is still used on older nodes like 16nm and 28nm variants which still make up huge volume.
The vast majority of semiconductors do not use even leading edge, let alone bleeding edge nodes. Bleeding edge like TSMCs N4 are insanely expensive and are only used by companies like Apple and Nvidia. The majority of products on the market are using 7nm class sillicon.
TLDR china is very close if it hasn't already achieved self sufficiency when it comes to semiconductors for it's manufacturing and military sectors. It has been hamstrung when it comes to AI though and it won't be able to go much beyond 7nm in the forceeble future.
EUV took decades and billions of dollars to develop. It was a joint effort of multiple governments and the biggest companies in the semiconductor space. It had been a joke that EUV was like nuclear fusion. It was first expected to come in the late 90s but took another 2 decades before it actually arrived. China did get one of ASMLs machines but they reportedly broke it trying to reverse engineer it.
RE: " TSMC 7nm equivalent nodes but below a threshold it otherwise performs similarly. This makes it a perfectly competent node for mobile, server most military"
Most radiation hardened chips are in 100nm to 400nm range, not 7nm. Also, larger chips can better withstand extreme variance in temperature unlike consumer devices using sub-10nm chips.
MESA fab at Sandia National Laboratories operates a 350nm process. SkyWater Foundry uses a 90nm process. Honeywell Aerospace uses 150nm process. VORAGO Technologies uses 130nm process.
China has one EUV?
@@rui-9-cs315 No, China used DUV (older lithography technology) combined with wafer to wafer bonding (advanced chip packaging/chiplet tech).
Reverse engineering... yeah that's what China does all the time. Stealing whatever they can.
I was told that we are way past the point of reverse engineering anything of value cos TECH has so many process steps that the end result tell you little of how to make it.
I wouldn't call what the Chinese do reverse engineering.
As someone who knows zero about chips but has tried to read as much as they can about it, that was what I came away with as well. The scale of the components and the tools, as well as the complexity of wfrs today make them impossible to reverse engineer or copy. The tech has to be learned and developed to be made. It would be like copying a DNA sequence without having the ability to build the microscopes necessary to even see the DNA strands to begin with.
Too much work to reverse engineer....@@TK-en2hq
@@chrisblashill7265hi
In fact, we will support Huawei when it produces 14nm chips, but Huawei always exceeds our expectations. The performance of the domestic Kirin 9000s 7nm process is equivalent to that of the 5nm Snapdragon
No, it's not, having access to both here in Saudi Arabia, there is no comparison between the two
It is really not. 7nm is 7nm. It will never be as fast as 5nm or 3nm. It is the difference between day and night. It has been a month since 60 pro out. This kind of tech specification is all over the place. Just google 60 pro chip. You will find one thing or two.
@@edwardyang4880 No, it is possible with better architecture/desgin; just like a extremely optimized game can performance better on inferior hardware.
Performance is irrelevant if you can't manufacture with high yield and also generate profit by having massive global sales. China government is pouring money into Huawei, but for how long can they subsidize this money losing operation? Maybe not long enough!
@coldspring22 Chinese weaknesses is the Xerox machine. It never ever works
Parts to maintain their fabs is going to hit hard when it comes to repairs…
Really wonder how much it cost to make each chip for the new phones… I’m guessing to get to 7nm it required so much fab time per wafer that these chips costs are through the roof, along with most likely having a horrible yield of good working chips per wafer…
NOT TO WORRY. SO MUCH WATER FROM THE FLOODS. AS THE SAYING GOES, " YOU HAVE TO START FROM THE SCRATCH.
You missed the Point! Huawei 5G is back in the market! It doesn’t matter how they do it but it’s in.
Already planned out. Use up asml since smee is going live in 2024. 💪
They can compensate for the cost of chip with other parts of the phones since China controls the supply chain.... what worries westerners and others chip companies is China will dump to the market cheap chip or force all companies in China use the chip and definitely will kneel down many chip makers outside China since China buyng almost 70 percent of world chip....
@Alexandre-sz2jb You should stop internetting until you can avoid bringing religion into a totally nonreligious conversation. Comment reported as spam.
Another advantage of Electron Lithography over
Photo Lithography that Peter discusses is that when you want a new chip you download a program to the machine, no retooling. Most of the retooling that is discussed is on the Photo Mask machine where new geometry stencils are installed. Note different types of Deposition are used later in the process for all current types of chip manufacture. Eventually circuits as we know them today will not exist as an overlay but rather be part of the material at the atomic level.
thanks for informative comment
Yes thank you, I'm learning a lot today.
Yes but Electron Lithography has a host of other problems and so is not an option for them either.
Wouldn’t that make the material kind of limited in its adaptability to new programs if the actual computing ‘thing’ is the material itself? I know nothing about chips, I’m just visualizing an ‘overlay’ of circuits that we ‘paint’ onto a material, Fs like what you said, that the material itself provides the framework for the computing to happen
Sorry but this comment is very misleading. Electron Lithography (EBL or E-beam) is NOT the same as Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV). EBL is not used for wafer manufacturing at scale because it has extremely poor throughput. It effectively uses a single electron beam to draw a single shape on a single die. Consider that a modern wafer has dozens of dies with billions on top of billions of shapes in each die. Photolithography (including DUV and EUV) works by emitting light through a mask that splits the light and "writes" billions of shapes onto the entire wafer and every single die simultaneously. DUV requires "multi-patterning", at 10nm class and lower tech nodes, which effectively means it has to use several masks to write a single layer of shapes on the wafer. EUV can use a single mask and thus has much better throughput (although it's likely advanced chip fabs still use at least two masks for EUV to reduce line edge roughness).
EBL, because it can write sub 10nm features with very high accuracy, is used to create the masks that litho uses as described above. There are also Multi-beam mask writers (new enough that there isn't an established acronym) that help increase accuracy and throughout of the mask production but still not on the scale required for wafer manufacturing.
Ten years later chips produced in China sold for 1/10 of price of other countries
It seems like a big win to me. Not to mention their new operating system. I believe they will end up surpassing the US in electronics. I also believe if I've heard correctly that Huawei own over 200 patents that we in the west must pay to use. I don't see China collapsing but I do think the US will.
Are you a tankie?
Lmao this is exactly what a Chinese shill would say
Why do you see the US collapsing?
At least PZ looked up DUV vs. EUV, although it seems he still doesn’t understand the difference. Having been working in the semi industry for 20 years, I don’t listen to PZ’s predictions in this area as he is clearly out of his depth.
He's out of depth for many areas but still continues anyway. He's a good bellwether for American nationalism tho
Man, it is unfair to stack a propagandist vs engineers. Be fair bro...
@@flowertowerrrmore like American Propaganda
dude he's out of his depth on everything, why bother listening to this flake.
Crazy how it seems easier to build a spaceship than innovate on chips
Have you seen the footage of the Chinese rockets that fall out of the sky into their rural villages? They’re having difficulties with rockets too.
“Technology transfer” is a fine choice of word for IP “misappropriation”.
Grand theft silicone: San Beijing
IP thefts
🤣🤣🤣
this is geopolitics- patents have no power here
I'm assuming that "hiring a huge number of people for technology transfer" is a euphemism for industrial espionage and theft.
Hi, Engineer here.
The technology that Huawei used - they had that in 2018 :)
It's a machine that blasts at193nm. It's very old. The newest machine that SMIC has like that was made in 2011...
However, it can be upgraded with immersion to reach 7, even 5nm. This was something that SMIC had already achieved in 2018 - and it's puddlenuts... Yes, you can use that jalopy to make 7nm chips but the cost per wafer and yield per wafer will be ridiculous.
I am betting all my property that SMIC are making that chip at a huge loss and it's subsidised by the Chinese government as a way for kickstarting their own supply-deman market system.
Considering how quickly this happened, I wouldn't be surprised if they're able to surpass every chip maker in the world.
They will go beyond that. China will disperse their non modular chip manufacturing tech to anyone who is willing to pay, hence flipping the semiconductor manufacturing on its head. West had to spend all this brain power to make Lith machines modular to keep the knowledge centralized, this breakthrough from China poses the risk of dispersing chip manufacturing knowhow lot deeper into second tier countries for their domestic consumption. Its a great development for the consumers over all, but the writing is on the wall as far as direction of Tech growth being determined by US and west alone in coming years.
No companies including Chinese companies are allowed to do business with Huawei. The only exception is if you got a waiver from the US. Either SMIC got the waiver or they straight up violated. If it is the latter, expect even harsher sanctions!! No DUV machine or supply of parts?????
@@miraphycs7377 so how huawei bought 50 million kirins 9000s ?
also you think smic will obey usa over china ?
and how you know china didnt reverse engineering duv, euv ? or build their domestic duv, euv ?
it's not surpassing but not ordering from other companies like Qualcomm, Intel... as they can design and build their own chips.... without those orders, Qualcomm + others will have no money for their R&D for their new designs so they're pretty much done
@@miraphycs7377 Let the US stay away. who made them the world police ?
One of the best story tellers
Emphasis on story. Whatever the state department wants to be shilled.
Cope
@@jestice75cope
I had heard it was an old supply of chips from Taiwan
When the Chinese build new type EUV machines to produce chips below 7 nanometers, you will say they stole all their technology from aliens
Much like ideas, once out of the box, technology cannot be stopped. If you have the money, the better the spread and the ability to acquire.
Bingo 🎯 once something is done it's much easier to repeat production, and in some time even catch-up in terms of technology
Dude clearly you dont know what is happening, DUV tech can be scaled from 14nm to 7nm by multilayer masking, this gets the cost up because the the wafer needs multiple exposures, but the chinese caught up to State of the art 6 yrs ago in less that 3 yrs post sanctions. It is feasible to think that it with a more refined multi masking it could be scaled down even further even without EUV. For most military equipment 7nm is more than enough.
yes,you are right. am glad you think so.
Don’t underestimate the determination of “forced” technology transfer by those who have perfected the art
Watch out for Peter's smugness and condescension. Don't underestimate the Chinese. Underestimate them at your peril.
people overestimate them last decade, what have come out from it? nothing@@hg2.
Ironic because TSMC had to abandon CHIPs act subsidies because US told them after construction started that they'd only get the money if they transferred all tech to the US.
China already has its own euv machine, which is said to be 1000 meters long and 1000 meters wide, it's Huge. It can make 1 nanometer chips. China doesn't need to build a 3-meter-long small euv machine, because China doesn't need to export them, China only needs them for itself.
while it is true, that the tech is 5-7 years behind, the tech components in military equip does usually not need the high tech stuff. 90 and 28nm works just fine here
I think the US doesn’t want China to be anywhere close to the first to apply AI to military systems which you can’t do with the larger chips. Shield AI’s hive mind concept that they are applying to drones and fixed wing is an example here.
@@erikm7608 China is already way ahead in AI, tey lead in 37 out of 44 new and critical technology now. Google it!
in the wise words of asianometry, guns don't need a 5nm chip
@@erikm7608 The US is trying to get every edge it can, but if China ever moves to a war footing, they will completely blow us away in terms in industrial production. I don't know that slightly better automation will do much when being heavily outproduced.
@@costakeith9048 everyone thinks we live in unprecedented times. Do you know what the US’s production capacity and Army capabilities were ranked when we entered ww2?
Spoiler alert, we were barely in the top 20… behind Romania. Development of industrial capacity is not a static situation. The US situation is far from ideal, but thinking China is anything but reliant on the inputs for its industrial capacity is just wrong.
Breakthrough or not, I'll be buying the HUAWEI MATE 60 PRO !!!😂
I love my P30 lite. What an incredible little piece of stolen goods it is. 4 years old and still going strong, I'll have to give it a Viking funeral when it dies
Who is this clown?
You’ll be paying more than a price of the new iPhone 15 to spite… USA, Zeihan, common sense? I’m not saying the phone is bad, but it’s ugly and overpriced.
It's a not competitively priced to iPhone 15. But it's all they got. Good bye Hua Wei.
Don't fall for a garbage😂🤣..Sri Lanka was bankrupt by china 😂🤣
DUV has some drawbacks comparing to EUV, but also DUV has a lot of cost, and capacity strong point over EUV.
Also even cutting edge chips do not use EUV for all the layers, only for a couple of them, and all other layers are made with DUV.
Semiconductor manufacturing is all about scale. DUV litho machines may be cheaper than EUV machines by a wide margin but you don't care too much about the fixed cost because semiconductor manufacturing profits are directly tied to wafer throughput. If you can increase your wafer throughput then paying a premium for EUV is totally worth it. This is especially true when you realize that, as you decrease feature size, DUV requires more and more multi patterning steps which decreases your throughput and increases wafer cost. Essentially, you don't care too much about multi-million dollar equipment costs when small changes in throughput has billion dollar impacts. So DUV definitely does not have a cost advantage at deep litho nodes.
Of course, not all layers on a chip require the deepest litho that EUV excels at so yes, you still use DUV in those layers of metal where you don't need aggressive multipatterning.
@@chasecook3854 c'mon DUV is still used in cutting edge chips, not only because machines are cheaper, but they have lower operational costs and have a bigger capacity. Clown Zeihan is saying that DUV is something archaic and not useful, while only his predictions are not useful.
If you want to know a thing or two about chips - go visit the Asianometry channel.
@@chasecook3854 All things are relative, a $50 chip within a $1000 phone going up in price by $25 might matter when margins are single digits, but doesn't when margins are $500.
Apple spent billions buying 3nm chips from TSMC for barely any noticeable improvement over 5nm, again, when you're margins are high, it doesn't matter.
The moment America started the tech war, it's no longer a matter of commercial competition and became a political cold war to the death. What matter now is Apple buys their chips from a Chinese breakaway province off China's coast and Huawei has full supply chain security. It might not matter now because China still allows Apple to buy their chips, but it takes just one order for Chinese military circling Taiwan daily to start enforcing physical export controls on their renegade province.
I think first smartphones with 7nm CPUs came out in 2019 (Apple)/2020 (Snapdragon).
So it's closer than 2017 stated in the video. But it's not that close yet, if they won't be able to build new manufacturing node up to 5nm in the next 2 years.
Of course, their phone is a BREAKTHROUGH. People in China buying Huawei means the money invested stays with them all the time, and no money is invested on the iphone. They keep the money in China, and they also get to sell their phone to other countries who are interested.
another point that adds to Peter's pieces is that as important as a bogus 7 nanometer CPU, is that they had stockpiled now sanctioned hynix 3D NAND MEMORY chips which they have no chance at all to be able to make those. So without that it was no way they can make this phone and they won't be able to do it once that supply runs out which must be very limited.
Also, I think what Peter is talking about regarding bending physics and light wavelengths is called multi-patterning, which Intel was doing and it took them many years of failure and high costs and lost the race the tsmc who was using euv from the get go.
Other commentators say Huawei's 7nm chip is on par with 7nm or even 5nm chips in competing smartphones. Do they lie?
Great to see you in Arizona!
At Apple's launch event for the iPhone 15 they're running a three nanometer chip by comparison
Doesn't Apple produce their phones in China though? Risky.
@@scottanno8861They’re assembled in China. Apple also started assembling in India. All the critical high tech parts are manufactured outside of China. Although there are certainly very important parts of the supply chain that’s only in China, even for phones assembled in India.
The company doing much of the assembly, Foxconn, is Taiwanese btw
Those nanometer numbers are just made-up, they don't mean anything. They used to mean something about 10 years ago it told you how far apart the transistors are to each other. Now the semiconductor companies just give It whatever number they think it should have. They do other tricks to get more transistor density and then give it a lower number.
@@scottanno8861the CPU is produced in Taiwan. They cannot get the technology from Taiwan. If they were to invade Taiwan the equipment would be destroyed.
Apple emphasized its ecosystem, how user friendly the iOS is when compared to Android. Apple never compares hardware with Android. Now Apple starts to compare 3nm chip or 7nm chip? Apple fans won't pay for this because the user will not feel any difference. It is just some marketing strategy to make you pay more.
@2:38 "So it is the penultimate expression of what the Chinese can do . . ." Penultimate means 'the second from the last' (not the 'highest achievement or something similar). Just a thought.
The great think about the 7nn chinese chip is that the chinese market will not anymore be apple centred, which sends more money to research and closes the gap even more.
So know where Peter got his info about the Kirin 9000S chip used in the Huawei Mate 60. But he's not entirely correct. Yes it's 7nn. But in terms of performance is about on par with a phone from 2020/21. Other aspects of the phone are impressive. The camera matches Samsung and iPhone just about. And their 5g is about 20% ahead. So while not a significant breakthrough. It's a rather impressive great nonetheless. And just before the ban they were ready to surpass Samsung in the mobile space.
They're highly innovative. I won't debate the political side of thing because I am not adequately informed to do so. But this is a really big and telling accomplishment for the company. It cannot be ignored or downplayed as Peter and so many others are doing.
The concern is not about the phone but the fact that they might have enough momentum to go past the Korean and American tech giants with one hand tied behind their backs in a few years. Of course we'll see how it plays out in time.
If the Chinese Communist party had left them alone then Huawei would have probably become the biggest. The CCP should have just quit with their shenanigans and they wouldn't be having this problem.
By the way we're not going to just allow a Communist dictatorship that doesn't even allow basic human rights to become the leader of the Free world. It's just not going to happen and virtually nobody wants it, unless they are Chinese or retarded.
This government does not even allow their citizens to have access to the full world wide Web, and they have some bizarre social credit score that they enforce on their citizens with brutal efficiency. So no they don't get to take over our position and get in a position where they can tell everybody what they're going to do and what they're not going to do.
If you think America's bad you just let Xi Jinping be the one calling the shots and see how that works out. This same government brought in tanks and machine-gunned college protesters in the fucking city park because they wanted freedom. This wasn't really that long ago.
Some of the idiots running our country said that if we allowed China to become prosperous they would become free and respect human rights. They didn't and if anything they got worse. Thank God the US government finally woke up and realized how bad they were fucking up by allowing this. You know their government gets on TV in China and talks about destroying the United States right?
they would be the first innovative Chinese Company in history...
@@letsRegulateSociopaths That's overstating things. Since the Chinese undercut Western manufacturers and came to dominate the solar industry, there have certainly been innovations out of China. And of all the inverters (that take DC energy from panels and ouput AC energy) that we've used from a variety of global sources, the best reliability and performance have come from... Huawei. That said, national security trumps all, and Xi's agressiveness against the US and his neighbors have made this bed that unfortunately his whole country has to sleep in. Look around--the world is rearming for war. Nobody--but nobody--wants to be under China's thumb.
@@letsRegulateSociopathsDJI😂
China, the world leader in cutting edge tech innovation while finally cut off from more IP theft? Riiiiight. Say, have you seen this bridge I've got for sale in northern Canada?
I _hate_ analysis like this. A backhanded, instinctive dismissal of an adversary is the surest path to getting your guts handed to you on a platter. Do not underestimate what this phone represents. Do not be the dude spouting feel-good'isms for its own sake.
Peter, you need to be a lot more careful when you talk about areas you know nothing about. What you say in the video is true in isolation and on the individual technical points, but misses on the conclusion altogether. It's like dismissing a wholly Chinese made car because the wheels are from a model 4 years old and the entertainment system is hard to use.
The key takeaway from this phone is that it is designed and implement almost entirely within the Chinese ecosystem itself. This is including the really hard to do, high-value, high-integration mixed signal subsystems like the 5G modem. To give you context, this is something only essentially Qualcomm provides (well, not anymore.) This is something that both Apple and Intel has failed to do even given the massive investments they've poured into it. This phone represents self-sufficiency on all the aspects that matter.
The sanctions have always been just a holding action. This says it has not worked well as hoped, and is now almost failed.
PZ used to work for Stratfor, a think tank. They get their conclusions from their donors and do their “geopolitical analysis” to get to those conclusions. Stratfor’s founder George Friedman wrote a book called “The Coming War with Japan” in 1991 when Japan was considered our main competitor.
Is he mad that China is not bending over like Japan?
Also Huawei is the first phone to implement satellite technology but I don't believe he mentioned that innovation. Conveniently of course.
Just did some research. Huawei's new 7nm chip is utilizing a different tech stack from what TSMC used in 2018 with DUV.
"TSMC did not use wafer-to-wafer bonding when they manufactured 7nm chips using DUV...none of these processes used wafer-to-wafer bonding, as they were based on single-wafer fabrication."
--AI Copilot
"According to TechInsights, the Kirin 9000S SoC consists of two dies stacked together using wafer-to-wafer bonding. There are no other phones that use chip which uses wafer-to-wafer bonding, as this technology is still relatively new and challenging. The Huawei Mate 60 Pro is the first smartphone to use this technology for its system-on-chip (SoC), which is the Kirin 9000S."
--AI Copilot
shhh, don't ruin their fantasy.
The last line.
"Sacrifice their position on the altar of ego."
I swear the Asian concept of "face" is a massive weakness. Some (Xi) will literally do anything to the point of self destruction just to appear to save face.
When a culture knows very little forgiveness, reputation ("saving face") becomes that much more emphasized.
It is a fatal flaw, if exploited wisely. ❤
Sad thing is the CPC isn't saving anything. In fact, they've damaged their reputation beyond salvation years ago.
SUCK IT UP. HUAWEI IS GOING TO DO BETTER THAN THE IPHONE
@@powershift2025 Really.. damage their reputation???
I see China gaining more and more allies yearly..and West losing more and more allies..
You guys are just dipping your head in the sand with fake wins
Enjoy your brainwashing sessions by your favourite fake news propaganda
One thing to consider is that these "nm" terms are only marketing. There was a time when it meant the gate dimensions. But for close to a decade now, it is a mere indication of supposed performance and density. But each company has it's own technical specifications, that can vary widely.
This "7nm" from China might as well have specs comparable to "10nm" for all we know. Or even worse.
It's not like China has ever made stuff up, trying to pretend they are more advanced than what they really are.
True. It's no longer gate size or even transistor size, but rather some feature of the etching.
China pretend they are more advance than they are? LOL 😂😂🤣🤣
Try looking at the space station up there.. and claim not advance
It's been a long time since the Chinese knew how to innovate . It may have been removed from the culture.
You don’t think we’ve verified it yet? Of course we have.
This is a swing and a miss for Peter. He said they couldn’t and they did. Not good.
That's a good name for the phone: The Proforma 7.
A rainbow in Phoenix. The significance is not lost. Great post.
History is always surprisingly similar. Apple is like Nokia back in the day. Nokia is not enterprising and does not believe in Apple at all. Needless to say the subsequent results.
Zeihan is the zen master of American wishful thinking.
😅
More like a master of twisting facts or outright lying.
He's a propagandist
He just channels the "China bad" sentiment (among other such sentiments such as "Russia bad") that the mainstream media instills in the general public on orders of the ruling elite.
Even just 90nm is better than any chips on the market before 2003. So that is plenty for laser or gps or tercom guided weapons, Phased antenna array radars and drones with digitally encrypted comunications.
Thanks Pete. Your insights are always worth hearing.
You, as an idiot, are just so perfect to be fooled by this guy. Wonderful couple.
they are never worth listening to
Propaganda is good
Enjoy your brainwashing sessions by your favourite fake news propaganda
@@KingMinosxxvi I like to read this wisdom too...
thks,we will see
Anyone who may be duped into thinking Zeihan is legit, just go back and watch or read anything he had about COVID, masks. He thought the whole world was going to die. I wouldn't be surprised if he scrubbed it from his channel already. Like everything else he says, it's a real credibility killer
You don't need EUV for sub 10nm. You just need to eche in stages, and defect rate is gonna be sky high. So it's gone be shit.
In background are blue roof building to reflect DEW laser beam damage
Whatever Huawei did, its a good start to show US that they are still in business. Sanctions will make them strive much harder.
Why do you think the next round of sanctions are gonna be somehow "lighter"? No companies including Chinese companies are allowed to do business with Huawei. The only exception is if you got a waiver from the US. Either SMIC got the waiver or they straight up violated. If it is the latter, expect even harsher sanctions!! No DUV machine or supply of parts?????
I guess we know why Peter is in Phoenix, as he has obviously just done a deep dive master-class into semiconductor tech, which has a long history in the Arizona desert.
Extreme hot weather, ample supply of brain power enhancing substances, in liquid or powder form, can do wonder to you perception of the world around you. I bet he met the ultra intelligent being from Planet X-1-1-91-Z.
currently in missouri. walked outside this morning and it was cool enough for a hoodie
just wanted to rub that in. i lived in tempe and scottsdale for a while so i feel your current pain.
What you have to look for is them simply re-branding Huawei and splitting into separate companies which of course they have already done.
And the chip is designed by Huawei, not something like OEM chip.
Yup. I am using a Chinese phone and the Chinese know all my details. As done America 😂
This guy is a great asset to the Chinese and I’m beginning to wonder the CCP are actually subsidising Peters commentary. Keep up the good work.
【Small success needs friends, big success needs enemies】
I emailed you and requested this (as I am sure many others did). Awesome to see you post a new video and so fast.
Unfortunately, Huawei did not use EUV, they used DUV, using several masks to achieve this feat and these chips are as good as Qualconn’s chips. This is because the nanometer numbers are more marketing than the lithography itself. But yes, they achieved this by hiring staff from TSMC.
Yes a lot of country hire foreign nationals.
@@SuperMukama I know the China can pay more than US$500.000 per year for any engineer with all expenses included if you from the semiconductor sector. It's a good opportunity from engineers.
Love Peter! But at the half it's Economic Resilience 3, Peter Z 0 with Germany Surviving gas cutoff, Russia keeping production going and the Chinese at 7 nanometers. "Never bet against economic resilience"
Anestasia in tech has an excellent video covering this chips capabilities, she knows this industry well. Worth watching.
With all due respect sir, this was an incredibly misguided and ill-informed diatribe against another country's incredible accomplishment. I'm not pro-Chinese government, but I'm pro consumer technology and this is a huge win for consumers. Now that China has the know-how to develop their own chips, if they can mass-produce them at a much more affordable price, that can only be beneficial to all of civilization. If you weren't so prejudiced, you'd realize that. Your comments just reek of xenophobic and "poor loser" sentiments that are quite frankly off-putting. As someone who is in the tech industry, I work with a lot of Chinese engineers and they are incredibly intelligent, and most of all, they are VERY hard working. So it would serve you well in the future not to underestimate the Chinese because their work ethic alone is enough to yield miraculous results as you've just seen. I wouldn't be surprised if we see them mass produce these 7nm chips and they're likely already working on 5nm chips right now as we speak. To downplay what is a huge milestone in the tech industry is a really terrible look on your part. It's not such a terrible thing for another country to be able to develop their own chips, so I'm not sure why you're framing it that way? It's not like the universe revolves around the US and they're the only ones predestined to have access to these chips.
His takes reek of american arrogance. Whenever he's wrong, he doesn't admit it, he moves the goal post or does mental gymnastics. As u say, the chinese are extremely intelligent and hard working. This breakthrough is no joke. They will soon lead the tech world/market and there a many westerners who have trouble wrapping their heads around that.
Nobody cares.
The Universe revolves around P. Zeihan, or haven't you heard? Lol.
Chinese are getting yield of 50 percent whereas Taiwan gets 90 percent yield. Now chinese arent getting any new machines to improve their yield. They'll stop manufacturing very soon as soon as their existing fabs breakdown 😂
It's just not a 1'st world country and never will be.
Awwww..so you guys claim..
You think China is Stupid???
@@IOFLOODThey'll just build whatever they need themselves. They have access to every company and government, already.
@@IOFLOOD China is way smarter than your West..or else..how you think China can be so advanced in mere 30 years..
When China puts out something.. they already know your West will react with hostilities, any kid can figure that out..
Don't you think they have backup plans etc??
@calvinblue894 Actually, yes, I do. They haven't had an original thought in 500yrs .
Peter, an economic analysis of the Phoenix area would be fascinating to me!
Nothing they do is a big deal, why worry? 🤔
Well said!
I don't care if they can make a 2017 level smartphone.
I care if they can use it to make military electronics comparable to that seen in the M1A2 SEPV3 or the F22/F35
Can they?
Not even close. Actually, not even close to being not even close. The PLA's only job is to protect the Communist dictatorship, which means fighting against unarmed civilians, and even then it's a close match.
from my understanding you don't need 7nm chilps for military technology, 32nm or 16nm is sufficient. Same goes for space programs.
Seeing as how it is a CPU, and most military technology that isn't optics and EW packages is from the 80's...most likely. Even if it wasn't as powerful, there have been multi-core processing technologies for a while now. So even if the chip isn't just as good, working in tandem with more of them still puts them on par with something modern. Will it be more bulky and harder to work with? Sure. That's never stopped a military though.
Of course they can make military electronics that rival the F-22. That's old tech, and military equipment doesn't require chips that sophisticated, anyway. Besides, the CCP already has all the data and blueprints for the F-22 and F-35.
it is not for f22 or f35
but for drone, a super computer able to manage drone or for electronic war is useful, just imagine if they blind satellite or use swarm drone against defense system
Hey Peter, I'm the guy you passed in the PHX airport yesterday who gave you a funny look. Couldn't believe it was you, as I was just telling my shuttle driver all about your videos! PS, you are taller in real life than you look on your selfie vids. 😊
To produce 7nm semiconductor chips via using DUV machines requires multiple patterning which will increase the costs (more masks to be used) and lower the yield rate (according to some sources, these Chinese 7nm chips came with the yield rate lower than 20% which makes it at least 4 times more expensive)
but usable for defense purpose.
The real problem they will have is getting enough chips for AI training.
Only idiots will believe the yield is 20%😂
The mate60pro is 1000 RMB CHEAPER than the mate50pro! Only idiots will drop 1000 Yuan when a SoC rise 4-5 times more expensive.
From a non engineer perspective that’s all you know 😂😂😂
@@dadidadida123u just destroy that kids 😂
The production process needing more patterning also increases how many steps you need to produce the final chip, something that obviously also makes the product more expensive.
One can get away with such price increases to an extent, as initially chips were really cheap. But at such low yields you'd start running out of wiggle room. I suppose other component costs coming down might let one still drop prices a bit though, if for instance the batteries got cheaper.
What is important is that yes, somehow the Chinese managed to make a chip.. but fast forward 20 years. Where do you think China will be vs the developed world? Progress doesn't stop. Unless you are cut out of the loop. This has huge ramifications that plays out over decades, not months.
True...
Take a good, long look at the people currently employed in or studying STEM fields. The vast majority are Chinese 😂. China will be fine
LOL China *is* the developed world. If you think China is backward you're a couple of decades out of date. And they won't be "out of the loop". The world is bifurcating, the West and Japan vs. everyone else. The everyone else is way, way bigger than the West plus Japan. In population, resources, technical work force and industrial capacity.
Enjoy your illusions while it still lasts
@@yaoliang1580American 😂
any word from the depths of the DoS, if clop has or has not gained access to tsmc files on intelectual properties?
As someone living in China, I'd love to see what Peter has to say about China. It makes my day. Thanks. 😄
He is definitely one of the best story telling person I've ever listened on TH-cam or Podcast. I always think him as the improved version of Gordan Chang as his theory of China collapse is more interesting😊
A Chinese 7nm chip will probably melt when you apply electricity to it
Aka the rice cooker.
stupidest comment, I'm sure all 100M huawei mate 60 phones are melting as we speak
Their ice cream maker is so hot it’s cool.
Chineseum quality chips. Big, big, big surprise. 50 Cent Army will be pounding their little chests all over this video and other western media. Pooh bear getting desperate.
@@powershift2025little chests and small wee wee’s
Thanks for the rainbow in the background
I remember back in the day when super computers were just coming out China surprised everyone by stringing a bunch of computers together and made one themselves. They are like the Genii in stargate Atlantis.
Watch out for Peter's smugness and condescension. Don't underestimate the Chinese. Underestimate them at your peril.
why you copy this to every note?
@@hg2.+9000 social credit score yaaayyyy
@@freeman-z7jbots do that.
Im going to call this now, sometime in the next 6 months, someone is going to crack this phone open and put the chip under a microscope, and discover its actually a 9nm chip and they were just lying about it being 7nm
Or old tsmc stock from 2020.
IT HAS ALREADY BEEN CRACKED OPENED BY EXPERTS. WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN? CONFIRMED WHAT THEY CLAIMED
@@powershift2025that's what I think....
I think in the next 3-5 years they will have their own EUV machines. Just like we see other countries landing their own rovers on moon
@@icet6665 must be using a Huawei phone that dosnt have the functionality to turn off caps 🤔 or maybe your yelling in a despreate attempt to be believed hard too tell .... oo well I hope they pay you well 🙂
Peter, hanging out across the street from my wife's office! Enjoy Phoenix, but you should schedule your trips here outside of the July (June) through September window.
I enjoy the information eveytime your dishing out the Geo…info!!
Check asianometery for REAL info on the chip
The real question is, can they use these chips in their guided missiles?
Are their guided missles worth a shat?
You don't need tiny nodes to make the chips needed to make guided missiles. See people experimenting making their own drones and rockets - they aren't using anything close to state of the art.
Guided missiles existed before transistors hit the nanometre scale.
Yes, in a guided missile capable of hitting the Pacific Ocean 😂
90nm is sufficient for guided missiles which the Chinese can already produce for at least a decade. Military applications don’t need cutting edge silicon. In fact older generation is preferred for reliability.